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The Influence of Money in MLB, 1985-2014

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In 2014, for the 21st straight year, the Yankees finished ahead of the Jays in the AL East standings. In 2014, for the 21st straight year, the Yankees had a higher payroll than the Jays. 1993 was the last time the Jays outspent the Yankees, and it was the last time they finished ahead of them too. Perhaps unsurprisingly given these facts, 1993 was also the last time the Jays made the playoffs.

Related to this, last week there was some discussion about what this fact pattern meant in terms to the influence of payroll on winning, which MLB has tried to address for most of Bud Selig's tenure. BBB commenter lb.wood pointed to some research suggesting MLB had not been able to influence. I was not particularly impressed by the research, so decided to look into it further - basically, how has the relationship between payroll and winning changed over the last couple decades?

I started with the Lehman database, which has salary data going back to 1985. As the 2014 update is not yet out, and I the most recent version I had downloaded was 2012, for 2013-14 I used USA Today salary info, and in total that gave 30 seasons.

For each team season, I calculated the team's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), based on the unified Fangraphs/Baseball-Reference replacement level of 1,000 WAR / MLB season of 2,430 games. As a reminder, over a season of 162 games, a replacement level team would be expected to win about 48 games, and an average team going 81-81 will total 33 WAR. For the strike-shortened 1994-95 seasons, I prorated each team's season to 162 games to make them directly comparable with other seasons.

Likewise, on the payroll side I calculated both total team payroll and Payroll Above Replacement (PAR) based on the Lahman data (with minor adjustments for a few teams in 1987 where the data was clearly incomplete). A replacement level payroll was based on the minimum salary for a given season for an entire 40-man roster. In reality, not all players on the 40-man will be in MLB and making the minimum, but given injuries and the implausibility of having all minimum salaried players on the 25-man, this represents a reasonable proxy of the bare minimum a team would have to spend. In 1985, the minimum salary was $60,000 resulting in a replacement level payroll of $3-million per team; by 2014 it was up to $20-million based on a minimum of $500,000.

In order to control for salary inflation and enable valid comparison across time, for each year I calculated the standard deviation of team payroll, and used it to standardize each team's payroll relative to league league (Standardized PAR or SPAR). To give an example, the average team PAR in 2014 was $99.7-million, with a standard deviation of $44-million. The Jays' team PAR was $117-million, which is 0.4 standard deviations above average, and hence that's their 2014 SPAR.

By regressing each team's WAR in a season against their SPAR, we can see the average effect of money over the last 30 years (858 team seasons):

SPARoverall.0.png

The positive relation between the team payroll and winning is clear: the more a team's payroll relative to league average, the more they win. Over the last 30 years, on average one standard deviation of payroll results in a change of just over 4 wins, and this is highly a significant factor (standard error = 0.36, t=11.4, F=130.3 for the regression). In the 2014 context, this implies that it would cost about $10-million to buy a win. However, it should be noted that that differences in payroll only explains about 13% of the difference in winning. That's actually quite good for a one factor model, but it also means that there's a lot of variation in winning that's not explained by variation payroll. Certainly, payroll is not destiny.

But what we really want to know is how this has changed over time. One approach would be to look at the relationship of wins and payroll for each year, but on a seasonal level with a sample of just 26-30, there's too much noise to draw meaningful results (for the 1987 season, the relationship is negative, which is nonsensical). Instead, I've divided the 30 years into groups. Initially I did six periods of 5 years each, starting with 1985-89 and finishing with 2010-14. However, given similarities between periods, for simplicity it makes more sense to discuss in 10 year intervals. However, I will also show summary data for each 5 year sub-period. At the end, I have an appendix that reports the same results as below for each individual season for those interested.

1985-94

SPAR1985.0.png

Time PeriodAverage PARS.D. of PARRelationshipR^2S.E. of SPAR95% Win Interval forSPAR for P(X)>80%
+2 SPAR+3 SPAR90W95W100W
1985-94$17.2$5.3WAR = 33.3 + 2.3*SPAR0.0460.6583 - 8884 - 925.18.010.8
1985-89$10.1$3.1WAR = 33.2 + 2.2*SPAR0.0410.9582 - 8982 - 936.410.013.6
1990-94$24.3$7.5WAR = 33.3 + 2.4*SPAR0.0510.8982 - 8983 - 935.58.511.5

For the initial time period of 1985-94, the link between payroll and winning is quite weak, much weaker than the overall link for the past 30 years. The relationship is not quit random, but team payroll is explaining less than 5% of differences in winning (R^2).

Let's breakdown the numbers. Next to the time period is the payroll above replacement for the average team from 1984-95. Because payrolls increased substantially during this time (more than doubling from 1985-89 to 1990-94), it makes more sense to look at the 5 years intervals for these. Next is the average seasonal standard deviation of PAR. At $5.3-million for the period relative to a $17.2-million, it means that to double league average a team would have have been 3 to 4 standard deviations above average, which is way off the curve.

Next is the actual relationship between WAR and SPAR. The important part is the multiple for SPAR, which is 2.3 for 1985-1989. For each extra standard deviation of payroll (again, $5.3-million), a team could expect to add about 2.3 wins. Next to that is the R^2 of the regression and the standard error on the SPAR variable (for those who like to see the statistical nitty gritty).

Finally, the two major columns and subcolumns on the right attempt to quantify how significant the regression results are. First, are expected win intervals for teams who spent at 2 and 3 standard deviations above average. For 1985-94, this would mean spending roughly $10-million or $15-million respectively more than average, or roughly 65% and 100% above average. A team at 2 SPAR ($10M) above average would expect to win 83-89 games 95% of the time, and a team at 3 SPAR would expect to win 84-92 games 95% of the time. So you'd expect to be a very good team, but this falls way short of guaranteeing a playoff spot, especially since this was pre-wild card when the target was usually around 95 wins.

The final piece of information is the spending that would be required to give a team an 80% chance of winning at least 90, 95 and 100 games respectively. 90 wins is more relevant for the wild card era, as teams winning at least 90 games made the playoffs over 80% of the time. 95 is roughly the average to win one's division both pre- and post-wild card, and 100 wins essentially made a team a lock to win the division in both eras. From 1985-89, to have an 80% chance of winning 95-100 games based on payroll alone would have required spending at 8 to 10 deviations above average, or spending roughly $60 to $70-million on payroll when the league average was $20-million. Simply, this was not really feasible.

1995-2004

SPAR1995.0.png

Time PeriodAverage PARS.D. of PARRelationshipR^2S.E. of SPAR95% Win Interval forSPAR for P(X)>80%
+2 SPAR+3 SPAR90W95W100W
1995-04$47.1$20.1WAR = 33.3 + 5.7*SPAR0.2160.6490 - 9594 - 1021.72.73.7
1995-99$35.8$13.9WAR = 33.3 + 6*SPAR0.2730.8390 - 9694 - 1041.72.63.6
2000-04$58.4$26.3WAR = 33.3 + 5.4*SPAR0.1740.9788 - 9691 - 1032.03.14.1

Just from the graphic alone, it should be obvious that over the next ten years, money and winning were much more tightly linked, and the data backed this up. The average team PAR continued to increase, more than doubling over the 10 year period, though decelerating from the 1990-94 period. Of course, it's not just the average that matters, so does the distribution, and that increased as well (measured by the standard deviation).

The most significant thing is that spending mattered a lot more for winning in this period. Whereas previously each SPAR resulted in 2.3 more expected wins, from 1995-2004 the expectation was 5.7 runs (and pretty consistent breaking down into 5 year periods). In other words, there was a much higher payoff to spending more money.

The implications of this are obvious, looking at the win intervals for 2 and 3 SPAR (roughly $40- or $60-million above the PAR of $47-million), which are 90-95 wins and 94-102 wins. In other words, enough wins to virtually guarantee a playoff spot, and likely a division title. Likewise, spending enough to have an 80% chance of winning 90, 95 or 100 games only took about 2-4 standard deviations above average, which is a lot, but much more feasible than 8 or 10 as was the case for the previous ten years. This was the time period when the Yankees, Braves and Red Sox dominated, and to a certain degree, money was destiny, or at least seemed to be.

2005-14

SPAR2005.0.png

Time PeriodAverage PARS.D. of PARRelationshipR^2S.E. of SPAR95% Win Interval forSPAR for P(X)>80%
+2 SPAR+3 SPAR90W95W100W
2005-14$80.0$37.8WAR = 33.3 + 4.2*SPAR0.1460.5887 - 9290 - 972.43.85.1
2005-09$78.8$34.4WAR = 33.3 + 4.9*SPAR0.2140.7788 - 9491 - 1002.13.34.5
2010-14$87.8$41.1WAR = 33.3 + 3.5*SPAR0.0940.8884 - 9186 - 973.35.16.9

In the last 10 years, things have got better, and particularly in the last 5 years. Payroll is still a much larger influence then it was from 1985-94, but not as much as 1995-2004. Rather than a standard deviation of payroll resulting in 5.7 extra expected wins, it was only 4.2. But, even this is misleading, as it was 4.9 from 2005-09, falling down to only 3.5 in the last 5 years, which is not that different than the late 80s and early 90s.

Likewise, it's not so easy to buy a playoff spot either. A team spending with a SPAR of 2 (for 2014, this would mean roughly $210-million total payroll vs. league average of $120-million) would expect to win somewhere in the high-80s to low-90s, which is not enough to lock up a playoff spot. To really lock up a playoff spot for sure, total expenditure would have to be north of $250-million. Otherwise, as the Yankees have found out the last couple years, you can spend a lot and still end up golfing in October.

It seems that to a certain extent, MLB's efforts at limiting spending by the upper market teams is working. After reaching an apex in 1995-99, the link between payroll and winning has declined, to the point where it's not really feasible to spend enough to essentially guarantee a playoff spot.

One Additional Approach

To try and confirm the above trends, I looked at one final measure. For all 30 years, I took payroll ratio between the team with the 6th highest payroll and 6th lowest payroll. This measures the difference between spending by quite-well-off teams and quite-poor-off teams (essentially the 20th and 80th percentile, or about one standard deviation above and below average). The bigger it is, the greater the disparity.

SPAR5.0.png

Essentially, we see the same trend. From 1985 to the end of the 1990s, MLB spending on payrolls was getting more and more unequal. Since then, it has significantly moderated, though remaining above where it was 30 years ago.

APPENDIX

YearPARS.D. PARInterSlopeSET-stat
1985$8.8$2.433.24.142.421.72
1986$10.1$3.133.22.302.040.26
1987$9.5$3.133.3-0.922.00-2.92
1988$10.0$3.333.22.092.41-0.32
1989$12.1$3.533.23.531.901.63
1990$13.7$3.833.30.051.85-1.80
1991$20.9$6.833.32.341.920.42
1992$28.0$9.233.30.282.08-1.81
1993$28.9$9.334.14.282.232.05
1994$30.0$8.633.64.601.972.63
1995$30.5$9.533.13.722.131.59
1996$30.9$10.733.35.571.623.95
1997$35.3$13.133.04.431.672.76
1998$37.6$15.535.49.021.907.12
1999$44.8$20.633.97.131.935.20
2000$50.0$21.433.63.371.781.59
2001$59.6$24.634.04.252.331.92
2002$59.0$24.733.76.602.494.10
2003$62.7$28.033.35.652.293.36
2004$60.7$32.734.77.332.155.18
2005$64.2$34.334.05.371.783.59
2006$68.5$32.333.65.461.603.86
2007$71.9$33.932.74.571.533.04
2008$78.4$37.831.93.591.981.61
2009$78.0$33.932.25.401.903.50
2010$79.6$38.333.04.061.932.13
2011$81.2$40.832.44.631.972.65
2012$84.2$36.534.02.242.220.02
2013$94.0$45.833.53.842.201.64
2014$99.7$44.234.72.571.750.82

Yankees 2014 Roster Report Card: Brett Gardner

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As one of the Yankees' top offensive producers this year, Brett Gardner traded in some of his traditional skills to hit for more power.

Grade: B+

2014 Statistics: .256/.327/.422, 17 HR, 21 SB, 110 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR

2015 Contract Status: Signed for four years and $52 million with a 2019 club option.

Brett Gardner is the Yankees' best hitter.

The above is probably not a phrase you ever thought you'd read about Gardner, who's known more for the gritty, gutty label that's been attached to him throughout his career than as an offensive force. It's true, though. At 31, the Yankees' new longest tenured player, now that Derek Jeter has traded in his bat for a shuffleboard cue, led the 2014 regulars in wRC+, wOBA (.331), OPS (.749) and slugging percentage. I'll repeat that last one. Slugging percentage. Those numbers might say more about the rest of the team than they do about Gardner, but it's hard to argue that in most situations this season he was the guy fans wanted at the plate.

Last February, Gardner signed a four-year, $52 million extension that starts next year and will takes him through 2018, his age-34 season, and puts him in a tie with Brian McCann as the Yankee with the third-most guaranteed years remaining on his current contract. The new deal came as something of a surprise after the Yankees spent considerably more to bring in a similarly skilled player in Jacoby Ellsbury after Gardner spent the bulk of the offseason with his name embroiled in trade rumors that wouldn't go away. But Brian Cashman, always a Brett-backer, convinced the Steinbrenners to stand by his guy, holding that in an evolving game, two fast outfielders side-by-side aren't redundant, but instead represent a great asset.

For the first four months of the season, Gardner more than justified his GM's faith in him, dashing out of the gate toward what looked like a breakout campaign. At the All-Star break, he was batting .279/.353/.424 and had already set a personal high in home runs. After a fantastic July culminated in a four-homer in three-days outburst in Texas, though, Gardner hit a late summer swoon. Through August and September, he hit just .193/.249/.331 with a walk rate of just 7.4%. His newfound power was mostly gone–he hit only three home runs in the final two months–and his base running became a non-factor too as he swiped just four bags down the stretch.

Despite his limp to the finish line, Gardner's season left mostly positive impressions. In a Yankee lineup that desperately lacked power, he provided a lot more than what was expected of him, setting career bests in home runs, slugging and ISO (.169). His noted ability to work pitchers was in full bloom as he finished second in baseball with 4.4 pitches seen per plate appearance, and he did a typically solid job of hitting to all fields, making him one of the few Yankee left-handed hitters who weren't harried by regular infield shifts. Oh, and his Gatorade-dumping abilities? Off the charts.

On the downside, as Gardner reached new heights as an all-around hitter, he saw some serious decline in the areas of the game at which he's historically excelled. For the second straight season, his walk rate hovered below ten percent, which forced his OBP beneath .330 for the first time ever. He set a personal high in strikeout rate at 21.1% and his 4.9% swinging strike rate was noticeably higher than his career mark of 4.0. In 2010 and 2011, Gardner stole 47 and 49 bases respectively, but he set a full-season low this year, swiping only 21 on 26 attempts. Once a phenomenal defender, his range crept closer to league average in 2014, when his UZR/150 was 2.9, a steep drop from a career average of 18.7 overall and 25.8 as a left fielder.

Compared with how his classmates performed, Gardner probably deserves an "A", but we don't grade on a curve here. There was a lot to like about his season and the clear effort he's made over the past two years to add more pop to his game is a smart choice. The Yankees need someone who can hit balls in the gaps and over the fences more than they need a scrappy speedster right now, and slugging in the fours instead of the threes will keep his value aloft as pure physical skills like speed and range erode. Still, Gardner's never going to make a full transition from leadoff guy to true slugger the way Curtis Granderson did several years ago, so there needs to be a balance. Hitting at or near the top of the order, as he will for years to come, Gardner needs to find a way to be on base more than 32.7% of the time. He needs to turn more of his long at-bats into walks like he did earlier in his career, and he needs to put his legs to work while they're still an asset by taking more chances on the bases earlier in counts.

Poll
What grade does Brett Gardner deserve for 2014?

  451 votes |Results

Yankees 2014 Roster Report Card: Jake Cave

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An underrated name heading into the season, the 21-year-old played his way into the top prospect picture with an excellent 2014.

Grade: B+

2014 Statistics: .294/.351/.414, 28 doubles, 9 triples, 7 homers between High-A and Double-A

2014 Level/Roster Status: Double-A/Non-40

It's been a bit of crazy few years for outfielder Jake Cave, who was generally regarded as a fine sixth round pick when he was selected in the 2011 MLB Draft out of Kecoughtan High School in Virginia. Unfortunately, Cave got off to just about the worst start imaginable when he fractured his kneecap in his first game and didn't make a single other appearance over the next two seasons due to the required surgery and recovery. Thus, the lefty hitter was a somewhat forgotten man when he began 2013 with Low-A Charleston at age 20. He was quite productive that year, hitting .282/.347/.401 with 37 doubles and a 117 wRC+, quite nice numbers for someone in his first full season.

Buoyed by Cave's success, the Yankee started the centerfielder with High-A Tampa in 2014. He wasted no time in adjusting to the level, where he hit .304/.354/.395 with 18 doubles and a 116 wRC+. Cave had 117 hits in 90 games with some nice defense and speed to complement his overall production, and by mid-July, the Yankees were satisfied with what they saw. On July 17th, Cave was officially called up to Double-A Trenton, joining ace prospect Luis Severino on the journey north. Making the adjustment from the Florida State League to the much higher caliber Eastern League is not easy, but Cave appeared to pass with flying colors. In 42 games with the Thunder, he hit .273/.344/.455 with 19 extra-base hits and a 121 wRC+. Manager Tony Franklin was so impressed that he compared Cave favorably with Brett Gardner, who also passed through Trenton under his watch.

Cave's game has not been daunted by pitcher-friendly locales like Trenton's Arm & Hammer Park and Charleston's Riley Park; he has similar home and road splits, perhaps because power isn't a huge part of his game. Same-handed pitchers also struggled to do much better than righties until Cave reached Double-A, where he only hit .239/.308/.352 against southpaws. However, that was also only in 28 games, so that could just be the result of small sample size, though it's something to watch going forward. (He also needs to work on his 21.7% career strikeout rate, though his walk rate did jump to 9.1% in Trenton.) Additionally, while Cave has nice speed with 30 professional steals, he has also been caught 15 times for an unattractive 67% success rate. He'll probably never have the speed of Gardner, but if he's going to run, he needs to increase his efficacy. Despite all these caveats, MLB.com stated that scouts love the way he approaches the game and "plays with full effort on a daily basis." It often seems like perseverance is half the battle when grinding through the minors, so it's good to see that Cave has a positive disposition.

It's unclear how Cave will fare as he gets closer to the majors, as there are still some questions about whether or not he could actually become a big league regular. Nonetheless, his 2014 campaign offered several reasons to be optimistic about Cave's outlook, and that was reflected in MLB.com's midseason prospect rankings, where Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo put him 7th overall in the Yankees' system. There's a lot to like about Cave, so here's hoping he takes another step forward in 2015 and ends up in Triple-A Scranton by season's end.

Yankees Prospects: Prime candidates for the 2015 Pulaski Yankees

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An early look at which prospects might be on the 2015 Pulaski Yankees

As we all know at this point, the Yankees will be creating a new rookie ball team for the 2015 season. As part of the Appalachian League, the Pulaski Yankees will be considered an advanced rookie team where players too old or too talented for the Gulf Coast League can go and face slightly better competition and have a chance to get out of the Tampa nest. If the organization goes back to one GCL team, they will have a number of guys who will suddenly be thrust into a tougher league.

It will be tough to find room, but shortstops Jorge Mateo and Angel Aguilar both deserve to move up to the next level. Mateo hit .276/.354/.397 with 11 stolen bases as a 19-year-old in only 15 games. He missed a lot of time due to injury, but is considered to be one of the organization's top international prospects with the best overall tools at shortstop. 19-year-old Angel Aguilar also impressed in his first year in America, hitting .311/.373/.536 with seven home runs. It isn't clear yet where Mateo will play, so things could work themselves out.

Second baseman Bryan Cuevas was impressive this year, though he's considered to be a bit older at 20. He hit well with a .356/.405/.564 batting line and "has power, a good eye at the plate and uses the whole field." Ben Badler of Baseball America believes that despite his age, another strong year will make him a legitimate prospect to watch out for. Other older players to keep an eye on are outfielder Frank Frias, who hit .316/.385/.391 at the age of 20, second baseman Junior Valeria, who hit .316/.409/.449 and is now 22, and Allen Valerio, who hit .292/.404/.472 in his age-21 season.

Outfielder Alex Palma is still only 18 and hit .305/.318/.451 this year in the GCL. Badler acknowledged he "shows good bat control and at least average or better raw power with the defensive tools for right field" and nearly made the list for the top 20 players in the Gulf Coast League. As a former top signing, he could be someone to watch in 2015.

The Yankees 2014 third-round pick Austin DeCarr got off to a mediocre start after accumulating a 4.63 ERA in 23.1 innings this year. However, he did show strong peripherals with a 2.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 with a "fastball up to 96, curveball flashes above-average, throws strikes downhill, just needs to bring along the changeup." At the age of 19, the organization could decide to give him a slight promotion before letting him into A-ball.

2013 draft pick Nestor Cortes finished his second year in the GCL and showed great improvement in his second go-around. He amassed a 2.27 ERA with an outstanding 1.4 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 31.2 innings as he heads into his age-20 season. It would make a lot of sense to move him up to Pulaski to start the year before letting him move quickly in the bullpen.

For those who are curious, I imagine Leonardo Molina, who Badler described as basically looking like a 16-year-old kid, will return to the Gulf Coast League next year. Also, shortstop Thairo Estrada could move back up to Staten Island where he started last year before getting injured. When you consider they also need to make room for recent international signings like Dermis Garcia, Wilkerman Garcia, Diego Castillo, and others, it looks like there could be a lot of moving around when everything is all said and done.

Yankees interested in re-signing Chase Headley

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Bringing back Headley could spell the end of Alex Rodriguez's run as the Yankees' third baseman.

The Yankees' infield has been mired in uncertainty over the past couple years, so it makes sense that the club is considering re-signing third baseman Chase Headley (per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman), who was quite good for New York after coming over in a mid-season trade with the San Diego Padres. The 30-year-old Headley is currently scheduled to reach the open market at the end of the month.

Headley hit just .243/.328/.372 with 13 home runs this season, though those numbers are slightly suppressed by him playing a large number of games at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Adjusted for ballpark, Headley hit for a more notable 102 OPS+ and 103 wRC+, and combined with some solid defense, he wound up posting a 4.4 fWAR season, the second highest tally of his career.

Headley was among the brightest players in baseball after a monstrous 7.2-WAR 2012 season that saw him finish fifth in NL MVP voting, but he fell off in 2013, as his OPS+ dropped from 145 to 116 and his WAR fell to 3.6. Headley's decline appeared to be continuing this season, as he posted just a .646 OPS in the first half. However, he turned things around after joining the Yankees, as he had a .768 OPS and 119 OPS+ in pinstripes.

It's unknown exactly how large the market will be for Headley's services this offseason, though his second-half turnaround makes him a likely candidate to receive multiple years. Due to the trade, he is not eligible to receive a qualifying offer, which should bode well for his free agent stock.

Of course, bringing Headley back would likely put Alex Rodriguez, who will be returning from suspension next season, out of a job. Just last week, Yankees' manager Joe Girardi said that he expected Rodriguez to be his starting third baseman next season, so there is reason to be skeptical of just how far the Yankees would be willing to go to retain Headley. If New York does add a third baseman this offseason, it is likely that Rodriguez would become a full-time DH.

Yankees rumors: New York likely to pass on Yasmani Tomas

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Cuban slugger Yasmani Tomas is expected to sign with an MLB team after holding a September showcase in the Dominican Republic, but the Yankees are unlikely to sign the outfielder this offseason. According to George King of the New York Post, industry sources say the Yankees don't appear to have serious interest in the Cuban defector, viewing him as similar to Rusney Castillo who signed with the Red Sox for seven years and $72.5 million. New York was not willing to give Castillo that kind of money, making it very likely they won't want to dish out even more for Tomas, who is said to be seeking a deal worth $100 million.

Beyond the financial reasons for passing on Tomas, the Yankees also hope that Carlos Beltran will be able to return to right field after undergoing surgery to clean up his elbow. Having Beltran back in the outfield would allow the Yankees to use Alex Rodriguez at DH in what seems like an inevitable necessity. With Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brett Gardner taking up outfield spots, there would be no room for Tomas.

High dollar contracts for Cuban defectors are only going up with Castillo's deal topping Jose Abreu's $68 million that topped Yasiel Puig's $42 million that topped Yoenis Cespedes' $32 million. Tomas is almost certainly going to be a further extension of that if he receives anything close to the $100 million rumored price tag. The Yankees have bigger pressing concerns to take care of for next year, making passing an easier decision on paper. Do you think they should take a chance on Tomas despite the cost, or should they avoid paying the high price now that they have missed out on one of the other defectors at a more reasonable cost?

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 10/8/2014

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2015 free agent qualifying offer set, the AFL opens, and Greg Bird excels

MLB Trade Rumors | Jeff Todd:The qualifying offer to pending MLB free agents has officially been set at $15.3 million.

MLB.com | Teddy Cahill:In the Arizona Fall League opener last night, a pair of Yankees prospects impressed the crowd as Greg Bird went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a homer, and Tyler Austin notched a multi-hit debut as well. GregBirdGregBird.

LoHud | Chad Jennings:A quick rundown of the eight Yankees playing in the AFL on the Scottsdale Scorpions.

Forbes | Mike Ozanian:The Yankees were ranked as the number one brand in all of sports, increasing their value from $443 million to $521 million in 2014. (Thx Farewell Tour.)

LoHud | Chad Jennings:A look at the state of the organization at first base, from Mark Teixeira down to Connor Spencer.

It's About the Money | Brad Vietrogoski:The best and worst parts about the Yankees' outfield in 2014.

Yankees 2014 Roster Report Card: Shane Greene

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Has Shane Greene solidified a spot in the 2015 rotation?

Grade: B

2014 MLB Statistics: 14 GS, 78.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

2014 AAA Statistics: 13 GS, 66.1 IP, 4.61 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

2015 Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration

Shane Greene was drafted as a 15th round pick in the 2009 draft, the type of gem that the Yankees have been successful at uncovering.  He came into the season ranked #28 on Pinstripe Alley’s Top 30 Yankees Prospects list and at 25 years old, he was barely hanging on to prospect status.  Greene was invited to spring training and worked out of the bullpen, where he caught the eyes of the team staff, staying until final roster cuts.  Injuries ravaged the big league rotation, affecting four out of five starting pitchers. With the pitching staff in peril, Greene was promoted to the majors to fill in.  Not only did he fill in, but he broke out and became a legitimate major league starter.

The right-hander began the year assigned to Triple-A Scranton, though he did make a couple appearances on the big league roster without getting into a game.  That changed on April 24th, when he was recalled for the third time already and made his major league debut at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. It was a struggle. In just a third of an inning, he walked three and struck out just one batter.  Two days later, he was sent back to the minors for the final time this season.

After pitching a total of 6.1 innings during the first month of the season, he struggled to regain his form.  Greene spent most of the next two months getting stretched back out as a starting pitcher in Scranton. In 66.1 innings, he was unimpressive with a 4.61 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and a .295 opponent batting average. Nonetheless, he got his chance to make his mark on the big league level when on July 7th, he was recalled to start against the Cleveland Indians.  It was a strong outing for him, as he threw six innings of two-run ball.

From that point on, Greene remained a mainstay in the Yankees rotation.  Making a total of 14 starts, he struck out an impressive 81 batters in 78.2 innings pitched while playing well against tough competition, especially in his best start of the season: eight innings of shutout ball against the always-dangerous Tigers. The fact that his home park was Yankee Stadium made it important for him to keep the ball on the ground, which he did at a 50.2% rate.  He was also able to induce an above-average swinging strike rate of 9.9%, strikeout percentage of 23.5%, and an average walk percentage of 8.4%.

Shane Greene proved that he's a quality major league starting pitcher this season, and he has earned a rotation spot for next season. He went from middling prospect to major league starter, a true Yankee success story. It appears that the Yankees have quite the commodity on their hands.  As a rotation building block or as a big piece in the trade market, either way he is a major victory for the organization.

Poll
Will Shane Greene be part of the 2015 starting rotation?

  179 votes |Results


PSA Comments of the Day 10/8/14: The Championship Series is set

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For the ALCS, it will be the Royals vs. the Orioles. For the NLCS, it will be the Giants vs. the Cardinals. One you've seen recently. The other you have not.

Comments of the Day

First COTD award goes to myself and Harlan regarding the Yasmani Tomas issue, the Yasmanissue if you will. The Yankees do not look like they're going to pursue him. We both share our thoughts on the matter.

Tanya also offers her thoughts on the Yasmanissue. It wins a COTDA.

Andrew once again brought this gem out into the open and it does not disappoint.

Finally, LTL offers up a valid point on the fact that I refer to myself as Nerd Greg, when my nerdicity should be pretty apparent at this point. In any case, The Flash was awesome.

GIF of the Day

Nothing really worthwhile in the GIF department yesterday. Make up for it today, PSAers.

Honorable Mod Mention

I do believe Waffles speaks for the majority of Pinstripe Alley with this statement.

Fun Questions
  • How much do you offer David Robertson if you're the Yankees front office?
  • What is you favorite superpower??
Song of the Day

Party All The Time from Glee (with Gwyneth Paltrow)

I have maybe seen one episode of Glee in my life. I just happened to find this while browsing YouTube, and I thought it was a pretty good cover. Well done. As always, link us your song of the day!

Welp. It's a Giants and Cardinals NLCS. Not much more to be said on the matter but Go Giants or Anyone But The Cardinals.

No baseball until Friday makes Pinstripe Alley something something...


Yankees 2014 Roster Report Card: Ian Clarkin

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With a successful 2014 under-his-belt, the Yankees pitching prospect has established himself as the systems top lefty.

Grade: A-

2014 Statistics: 16 GS, 70 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9

2014 Level/Roster Status: Low-A|High-A / 40-man roster

Having only pitched five total innings of professional ball at the Rookie Gulf Coast League last season, it would not have been unusual to see 2013 first round draft pick Ian Clarkin begin the season at the Short-Season level.The young lefty impressed the Yankee brass enough during extended spring training that the organization chose to be aggressive and send him to Low-A Charleston.Clarkin took the challenge in stride, putting up a solid ERA and FIP while displaying a strong ability to miss bats and limiting the number of free passes.His strong performance earned him an end-of-season promotion to the Yankees' High-A affiliate in Tampa.Clarkin made just one start before being shut down, likely in an effort to control his innings.

Clarkin’s season did not go unnoticed in prospect scouting circles either. MLB.com ranked Clarkin number four on the Yankees' top prospect list and Baseball America recently ranked him number fifteen on their post season top twenty South Atlantic League prospects.  Reports have been positive with some discrepancies about the current quality of his stuff.  This is not unusual for a 19-year-old still growing into his body, but all who have seen him believe that each in his three-pitch mix of a fastball, curve, and changeup grade out as at least solid average pitches.

There were not many negatives to Clarkin’s campaign, but some of the main knocks on the lefty were that he needs to improve the command on his pitches and that he must learn to be more consistent during his starts as he climbs the minor league ladder.  Clarkin generally did not walk many batters, but scouts made note that his command occasionally falters from time to time, even within a single start. These lapses in command have caused him to leave balls up in the zone, making his pitches more hittable than they otherwise would be.  Clarkin is likely to begin next season in Tampa with a realistic chance of reaching Double-A Trenton if all goes well.

Should the Yankees pursue Pablo Sandoval?

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With A-Rod an unknown commodity after a year away from baseball, should the Yankees go after the Kung Fu Panda to help them out at the hot corner?

While they might not admit it publicly, going into next season with Alex Rodriguez penciled in at third base is not the best option for the New York Yankees.  The Yankees need to sign someone else.  They probably know this.  And yesterday, a report came out already linking them to Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval. Would the Bronx be an ideal home for the Kung Fu Panda?

Sandoval will become a free agent whenever San Francisco finishes up its postseason run, and the Yankees may be one of the only teams that would or could shell out the sizable contract he's reportedly looking for (somewhere around $100 million over five years).  Sandoval has been quite productive during his career with the Giants, posting some big offensive numbers during his six years in the majors (he had a 146 wRC+ in 2009 and a 149 in 2011).  While he hasn't been quite as successful over the past three seasons, he did manage to hit .279/.324/.415 this season with 16 home runs and a 111 wRC+.  Considering the Yankees have been starved for offense the past two years and are desperate to return to their bombing ways, the interest is understandable.

Sandoval isn't nearly as good in the field as he is at the plate, but he isn't awful.  In fact he's posted a positive UZR/150 over his career, albeit barely at 2.2.  His career DRS sits squarely at 0, making him the definition of average.  However, his defense will only get worse over the course of his contract, meaning that he'll likely go from an average fielder at best to a clear negative in the field in a couple years.  This is part of the reason he might find a bigger market this offseason in the American League - he, and potential suitors, probably see a shift to DH in his future.

This is perhaps the biggest reason for the Yankees not to sign Sandoval - they already have a third baseman that's not great in the field anymore and will be more of a DH over the next three seasons: Alex Rodriguez.  While A-Rod might not be quite as good with the bat as Sandoval next year (Rodriguez should still be productive), it seems redundant to have both of them for the next few seasons if both will be better suited at DH (especially considering that DH-ing A-Rod will probably be the only way to keep him healthy enough to contribute over the course of a full season).  Add in Carlos Beltran, and that's three players who will need some time at DH - leaving two more to play below-average defense in the field.

Sandoval's contract is also probably more than the Yankees should be willing to pay, especially since they have some business to take care of this offseason (signing a shortstop, shoring up the rotation, re-signing David Robertson).  While he certainly does some things well, when combined with an infield that needs to improve defensively, and with a team that will already have a few guys splitting time at DH over the coming years, it becomes clear that Sandoval is not the best fit at third base for this team.  While his bat would be welcome, there should be cheaper options out there that can hit almost as well while providing the consistent defense the Yankees could really use at the hot corner (Chase Headley, anyone?).

What do you think?  Is the Panda the best option for the Yankees at third in 2015?  Or should the front office turn its attention elsewhere?

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 10/9/2014

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Why the Yankees might pass on Yasmani Tomas; Cashman begins the offseason as usual; Yankees among most surprising playoff lineup moves

New York Post | George King III: Questions about Yasmani Tomas' value and the incumbent Carlos Beltran are reasons the Yankees may pass him up.

New York Daily News | Mark Feinsand: Even without a new contact it's business as usual this offseason for Brian Cashman and the Yankees.

ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews: The Yankees potential 2015 starting rotation has both talent and a lot of question marks.

Sports on Earth | Paul Casella:Yogi Berra's benching in two games of the 1947 World Series and Alex Rodriguez's drop in the order in 2006 were some of the most surprising lineup changes in playoff history.

Forbes.com | Mike Ozanian: The Yankees and the YES Network are among the forty most valuable brands in the world.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings:The immediate fate of the Yankees bullpen is all tied to David Robertson and the arms in the minors.

Yankees 2014 Roster Report Card: Chase Headley

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After being traded from San Diego, Chase Headley turned out to be an offensive bright spot in the Yankees' lineup.

Grade: B+

2014 Statistics: .243/.328/.372, 13 HR, 103 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR

2015 Contract Status: Free agent

Going into the 2014 season, the Yankees thought it would be a good idea to have Kelly Johnson, second baseman, and Yangervis Solarte, rookie, split time playing third base. This worked for awhile, particularly during Solarte's hot start to April, but Solarte fell back to Earth eventually and Johnson wasn't able to get anything going at any point. Things weren't looking great, then Brian Cashman did his thing and traded Solarte for the Padre's third baseman, Chase Headley. Although he hadn't been having a great year in San Diego, he turned his season around with the Yankees.

When the Yankees traded for Headley, he was hitting just .229/.296/.355 with the Padres, and the thought was that at the very least he would be a good defensive third baseman. Throughout his career he has been good defensively, and this season was no different, as he finished the season with a 28.0 UZR/150. Though he hasn't been able to duplicate his 2012 season where he hit 31 home runs and knocked in 115 runs, he did improve offensively after the trade. In just 58 games with the Yankees, he hit .262/.371/.398 with 6 home runs. Headley was also responsible for three walk-off wins. The first came during his Yankee debut, when he joined the team at home, midway through their game against the Rangers. He ended up pinch-hitting as the game went to extra innings, and eventually hit a walk-off single during the 14th inning.

Headley is a free agent this year, and he has already expressed how much he loved playing in New York. Unfortunately, he's also stated that he wants to play full-time next year. Alex Rodriguez is set to return from his suspension, and the Yankees have already said that they expect A-Rod to play third base That statement alone might be enough to deter Headley from signing with the Yankees, which would be unfortunate given that there are a number of question marks surrounding A-Rod's ability to stay healthy, field the ball, and hit productively. (Although there have also been some rumors that the Yankees still want him as see A-Rod as a DH.) Headley is only 30 years old, and if his asking price isn't too high, they should seriously consider signing him for a few years and letting him play the majority of games at third base. A-Rod could rotate between 3B and DH, and Headley could also back up Mark Teixeira at first base. If Headley does not return, he will at least be remembered as one of the few bright spots in the Yankees' lineup during the latter half of the season.

PSA Comments of the Day 10/9/14: This "no baseball" thing kinda sucks

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Two days in a row with no baseball. It sucks.

Comments of the Day

This post wins Harlan both the COTD award and the GOTD award for being the absolute perfect response to Ryan Dempster announcing his retirement.

GIF of the Day

And here's the GIF. Still a pleasure to watch.

Honorable Mod Mention

Michael Brown takes home the HMM award from yesterday. Going after Pablo Sandoval definitely throws up the DANGER signs.

Fun Questions
  • A classic: what song/songs would you come up to bat to?
  • Hockey started last night. Do you watch Hockey? If so, what team do you root for and why?
Song of the Day

God Only Knows from BBC Music

I found this last night. A beautiful cover of one of my favorite Beach Boys songs, performed by multiple artists. Really well done. As always, link us your song of the day!

So here we are. Still baseball-less. The playoffs do not start again until tomorrow. The Yankees have yet to do anything we want them to do. Soon we will be without the sport until spring. We could be watching Greg Bird perform in the AFL, but sadly that's not be televised or streamed. D'oh. I guess I'll have to go to the New York Comic Con to keep busy. Who's with me?

No baseball until Friday makes Pinstripe Alley something something...


Yankees 2014 Roster Report Card: Taylor Dugas

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Look out for Taylor Dugas in spring training 2015.

Grade: B-

2014 Statistics: .299/.399/.390 between Double-A and Triple-A

2014 Level/Roster Status: Triple-A/Non-40

If you've never heard of Taylor Dugas, I wouldn't blame you. He's not exactly the most exciting player in the system, so if you're not a huge prospect nerd, chances are you haven't heard his name since he's not on any top prospect lists. It's beginning to look like he might be worth some attention, though, so hopefully you'll keep him on your radar in 2015.

Back in February, I described Dugas as a singles hitter with a solid ability to get on base. I also predicted that he, Ben Gamel, and Jake Cave were three outfielders in the system that should get a lot of attention in 2014. While Cave received most of the praise for his season, Dugas and Gamel were largely overshadowed despite also turning in good showings at the plate. Dugas hit .299/.399/.390 this year between Double-A and Triple-A. During his time in Trenton, he compiled the 7th best on base percentage (minimum 200 at-bats) in the league and his 136 wRC+ ranked in the top 20.

It turns out that my profile for the left-handed hitting outfielder was pretty accurate. He collected 105 hits with 83 of them being singles. He hit only one home run, but also continued to walk at a rate higher than 10% of the time. Unfortunately, it was also his worst year in terms of walk rate (11.2%), he saw his strikeout rate rise to 14%, and he only managed to swipe seven bases, likely because someone told him not to be so reckless after he was caught stealing 11 times last year.

While you could look at this year and see it as a down year, it was also his first time in the upper level of the minors and he made it up to Scranton. What you won't see in the stat line is that Dugas also profiles as a pesky and patient hitter like Brett Gardner has been. Nathaniel Stoltz over at Rotographs worked up a profile of him back in March where he effectively described why Taylor Dugas should at least be considered a fringe prospect:

He drives pitchers crazy, because he takes just about everything that's out of the strike zone, he has the ability to get his bat to anything near the edges of the strike zone and foul it off, and he has the strength and feel for the barrel to rip line drives on mistakes. The result of that combination of skills is that his plate appearances go on and on and on, and yet he still finds his way to get a positive result-working his way on base-as much as almost any other player in the minor leagues.

...

He has a small strike zone and knows it extremely well, and while he does have a touch of strength, he doesn't overswing. His swing is very quick to the ball and he does a nice job keeping the barrel in the zone and letting the ball travel in before he commits, allowing him to make contact with nearly everything and make hard contact with enough pitches to hit for a high average.

So he's a patient hitter with no power, some speed, and an ability to make contact with the ball. Any time someone sounds like Brett Gardner, I'm going to get excited about it.

Heading into his age-25 season next year, Dugas is already a bit old for a prospect, but that doesn't mean he can't offer the Yankees some value. He can play all three outfield positions well and if the Yankees are going to fill their fourth outfielder role internally, Dugas should get a lot of attention in spring training. Maybe he doesn't break camp with the team, but he could end up in the majors at some point. He's not exactly loaded with tools and promise, but if he gets a chance he could show himself to be at least a competent role player and that has value too.


Orioles close to an extension for shortstop J.J. Hardy, no longer a Yankees option

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Well, the shortstop free agent market just got a lot uglier.

Today is a rare quiet day in October for baseball, as the Orioles and Royals prepare to start the ALCS Friday and the Giants and Cardinals begin their far less exciting NLCS matchup on Saturday. However, it seems like the O's aren't going to be fully quiet today, and the news that's breaking certainly impacts the Yankees:

Yes, it seems that one of the best shortstops on the free agent market is no longer going to be an option for the Yankees to use to replace Derek Jeter. This news surprised me, as it's very rare for players to sign extensions so close to free agency and the open market driving up possible contracts. However, J.J. Hardy must really like Baltimore and want to stay put. Three years for about $40 million with an option for a good all-around shortstop like Hardy is a great deal for the O's.

Some fans might not have wanted the Yankees to go after Hardy since he's 32 and suffered a lapse in power this seasons after slugging over 20 homers three years in a row. However, Hardy's still an elite defender of Brendan Ryan levels with a bat that has been fairly consistent over the past eight seasons. Since the 2007 campaign, he's hit .260/.303/.417 with 92 homers, 16.0 fWAR, and a 94 wRC+. A 94 wRC+ might not seem especially flashy, but for an elite defensive shortstop, that's absolutely fine.

From an all-around production perspective, I definitely would have preferred the Yankees to go after Hardy at shortstop rather than the costly and risky Hanley Ramirez, the complete unknown Jung-Ho Kang, or the other lesser options (Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew). Oh well. I guess I'm on the Jed Lowrie hype train now, if one could even call it that. Sigh.

Poll
Who should the Yankees go after at shortstop now?

  174 votes |Results

J.J. Hardy to be extended by Orioles, but timing could be bad

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The two-time Gold Glover reportedly gets a new contract, but is the day before the ALCS the right time?

Multiple reports on Thursday afternoon had the Baltimore Orioles and shortstop J.J. Hardy close to reaching a three-year, $40 million contract extension with a fourth-year option that could keep the infielder in Camden Yards through his age-35 season.

Hardy was due to become a free agent at season's end, is a strong defender and a good hitter by shortstop standards, if inconsistent. After hitting 77 home runs in his first three seasons with the Orioles, in part by taking firm advantage of Camden Yards (.270/.320/.464 at home versus .242/.278/.406 on the road) he hit just nine long-balls this year, five of them in Baltimore. With Hardy beloved of manager Buck Showalter, it's not at all surprising that the Orioles would want to retain him regardless of the risk of further offensive regression.

Nonetheless, the timing of the news, coming on an off-day before the start of the American League Championship Series, is odd given the club's likely desire to keep the player focused on the task at hand. It brings to mind the infamous 1925 postseason of Washington Senators shortstop Roger Peckinpaugh. Peckinpaugh won the AL Most Valuable Player Award that year. This was announced before the World Series. Peckinpaugh, supposedly anxious to live up to the award, committed a Series-record eight errors, including one that put the eventual Series-winning run on base in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 7.

Peckinpaugh wept in the clubhouse after that last loss, knowing that 90 years later folks like me would still be writing about his Moment of Goat, but on come levels the story is bollocks: He had done this before. He had been the Yankees' shortstop in the 1921 World Series. His booted grounder in the first inning of Game 8 (the Series was a best-of-nine in those days) scored the Series-winning run for the Giants. That was why the Senators had Peckinpaugh in the first place. The Yankees sent him to the Red Sox in a fit of pique (picking up two good starting pitchers and a shortstop in the process -- thank you, Harry Frazee ) and the Sox subsequently dealt him to the Senators. Peckinpaugh later said that he was traded because Babe Ruth had pushed him forward as a replacement for manager Miller Huggins. Other sources cite the error. The Yankees have always been the Yankees, so either or both could be true. At this late date it's impossible to know for sure.

1921 Yankees

(L-R) Wally Pipp, Ruth, Roger Peckinpaugh, Bob Meusel, and Frank 'Home Run' Baker (Getty).

Peckinpaugh had homered earlier in Game 8, so it may have been some small consolation that the Senators wouldn't have had a lead for him to blow if not for him. Perhaps not. In any case, Peckinpaugh made 30 to 50 errors a year. That's what shortstops did then. Groundskeeping was also far from the art it is now, so he undoubtedly had help from pebbles, rocks, mesas, buttes. Hardy makes about a dozen errors a year, and while he might throw one or two away in the ALCS, it probably won't be due to his new contract.

Then again, as with Peckinpaugh, we won't really know, will we? Anxiety is an elusive thing, and cognitive studies have shown that sometimes we're thinking of something even when (stay with me here) we don't think we're thinking about it. Sigmund Freud said that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Sometimes an error is just an error, sometimes it's mental. Who is to say which is which? Not even the man who made the mistake.

Addendum, via Jerry Crasnick of ESPN:

Which offseason moves should the Yankees make first?

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Where will the money truck be headed to first?

For the second straight season the New York Yankees failed to make the playoffs, which is reason enough for Yankee fans to riot, loot, and destroy everything in sight. This just in: Rob Thomson has just been seen rushing out of the city. After backing up the truck for Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and even Carlos Beltran, this team once again failed to play in October, and the closest we got to playing in a playoff game atmosphere was Derek Jeter's final home game, the magical game winning hit in his last at-bat game. Now that this team has unfortunately hit the offseason a lot earlier than they would have wanted to, and aside from extending Brian Cashman which appears likely, what is the first move this team should make in order to improve for the 2015 campaign?

Brandon McCarthy anyone? McCarthy might be the first domino that falls as he pitched very well for the Yankees after being acquired at the trade deadline. This might depend if Hiroki Kuroda decides to hang it up or play in Japan as McCarthy would fit nicely in the Kuroda role: a solid, ground ball pitcher that will keep the team in every game. Plus, McCarthy and his wife make a fantastic team and who wouldn't want to have that pair on your side? On the other side of things, the offensive was the problem all of 2014, so the Yankees might look to add some offensive first. Somehow.

Replacing the captain? Are the Yankees going to quickly look for Jeter's replacement, or will they wait and see what the youngsters give them? This team will likely move fast if they are indeed interested in J.J. Hardy's services or another one of the free agent shortstops. A lot of baseball people have suggested the Yankees trade for Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins and if that's the case (and I hope not) than this will probably be done much later in the offseason. Looking for an everyday shortstop is important, and might be the first move because Brendan Ryan is looming...

The Yankees might look to keep one of their own as their first move as David Robertson is a free agent. At the very least the Yankees will definitely offer Robertson a qualifying offer as it doesn't look likely they will look to sign him long term. The Yankees' bullpen was their biggest strength in 2014, so they might wait on this move, but expect a qualifying offer. Now, whether Robertson accepts it or not is another story, but with the Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales horror stories still fresh in everyone's mind, and with the looming thought that not many teams will surrender a first round draft pick for a closer, the Yankees know they are at an advantage.

Of course the Yankees might not make any player first moves and instead they might first make some changes in the coaching staff. I'm looking at you, Rob Thomson and Kevin Long. Offensively the Yankees were quite terrible in 2014, and it seemed that more runners were being thrown out at home than were successfully crossing it so Thomson might be on the way OUT. That would be irony at its finest. In all seriousness, a man would be losing his job. Let's not joke, people!

For those expecting one of the big fish to be reeled in first, like a Jon Lester or Max Scherzer, you might be waiting for a while as usually those guys go later in the game. The Yankees might even look into James Shields if Kuroda departs and McCarthy doesn't resign.

What do you think is the first move the Yankees need to make this offseason? What move do you think they will make first?


Yogi Berra museum robbed!

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The Yankee legend's museum was broken into late Tuesday evening and thieves made off with numerous valuables, including his World Series rings and love letters to his beloved wife.

In some very unfortunate news, the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center was broken into late Tuesday night with numerous collectables and personal effects being taken during the heist.  Police currently do not have many leads but the prevailing belief is that it was a group of "professionals."  The items stolen include: two of the Hall of Famer’s MVP awards, a jacket worn by Yogi when he threw out the first pitch of the 2009 World Series and some baseball cards.  The thieves also took all ten of Yogi’s World Series rings as well as a series of love letters from him to his then girlfriend and future wife, Carmen.  Carmen Berra tragically passed away at the age of 85 earlier this year due to complications suffered from a stroke.  As his wife of 65 years, Mrs. Berra was the love of Yogi’s life and an instrumental piece in getting the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center built.

As an individual, the news of this theft saddens me on a multitude of levels.  This is not because Yogi Berra is a Yankee from the first great dynasty, or one of the greatest catchers to ever wear the pads.  What troubles me the most is that these people chose to steal from a person who has spent his entire life helping his fellow man.  We are talking about a WWII vet who fought to protect this nation and others from the Axis powers.  A man who had long denounced the evils of discrimination at a time when African-Americans could not share the same washroom as a white person. More recently, he has lent himself towards helping fight against the discrimination of the LGBT community.  This incident leaves me asking "Why?"  I can understand the perceived value in a big gold MVP trophy or the expensive World Series rings, but why steal something as personal as love letters?  Why take something meant to be a shrine to an elderly man’s beloved wife?

I truly hope that the police are able to find these thieves and return Yogi’s things back to where they belong.  No one ever deserves to have their personal things taken from them, especially not Yogi Berra.

Fish Bites: Scouts confident in Jose Fernandez's future

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As Jose Fernandez started his throwing program, Major League scouts are confident he will have success following Tommy John surgery. Plus links on Derek Dietrich and Nathan Eovaldi.

-Marlins Rumors: Team Looking at Free Agent Starters - Marlin Maniac - A Miami Marlins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

A strength of the Miami Marlins roster coming into the 2014 season was supposed to be their starting rotation. All of that changed when Jose Fernandez went down with an elbow injury in May and had to miss the rest of the season due to Tommy John surgery.

-Marlins Rumors: Derek Dietrich an Option at First Base? - Marlin Maniac - A Miami Marlins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

he Miami Marlins were not pleased with the production they got out first or second base position in 2014. For that reason, the club is looking at different ways to improve on that next season. The team already acquired Kike Hernandez at the trade deadline and he could be the team’s solution at second.

-Miami Marlins making moves in right direction | The Miami Herald

They won more games. They scored more runs. They even attracted more fans. While the Marlins failed to make the playoffs for the 11th consecutive season — the third-longest postseason drought in the majors — they provided clear signs this season that better days might not be far off.

-Florida Marlins World Series hero Josh Beckett retires - Sun Sentinel

Beckett was the World Series Most Valuable Player for the Florida Marlins as they beat the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series. He was the MVP of the 2007 American League Championship Series, when the Red Sox beat the Cleveland Indians, and he helped pitch Boston to a World Series title that year. In 14 career postseason appearances (13 starts), Beckett went 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA and three shutouts. lRelated MIAMI MARLINS Photos: Josh Beckett through the years SEE ALL RELATED 8

-Marlins to show patience with Jose " The Fish Pond

Building up throwing from 30 feet to 45 feet, and upwards to 60, 90, 120 and beyond are the first steps in Jose Fernandez’s recovery from Tommy John surgery. Getting back to being game-ready will be a slow, deliberate process. From all indications, Fernandez and the Marlins are prepared to be patient. No sense rushng anything, and risking a setback.

-Samson sees Marlins trending upward for 2015 | marlins.com

After years of uncertainty, the Marlins firmly believe they are entering an era of stability. The product on the field improved by 15 games in 2014, and the perception around the community is changing, reflected by increased season-ticket renewal numbers and more overall interest in the club.

-To McKeon, Beckett a standout competitor | marlins.com

In their history, Marlins pitchers have combined to throw 141 complete games in the regular season, and four more in the postseason. None are more memorable than Josh Beckett's World Series-clinching gem at Yankee Stadium in 2003. At 23, the hard-throwing right-hander cemented his legacy in Marlins history, and became the face of the franchise's second championship team. "There is no question about it, he was the key," said Jack McKeon, who managed the '03 club.

Around The League

-10 of the most game changing postseason plays. | SportsonEarth.com : AJ Cassavell Article

This year's playoffs have had as many sudden twists and turns as any in recent memory, and we haven't even reached the League Championship Series yet. But which singular plays have had the biggest effect on the postseason so far? We compiled the top 10.

-GM Moore's vision is paying off in Kansas City | MLB.com

BALTIMORE -- Constructing a roster you believe can get you to the World Series isn't all that different from building your dream house. You can spend years in the planning stages, steal dozens of ideas from your friends and dedicate every weekend to visiting designer showcases. But there comes a time when you have to pick your granite and decide whether that dormer on the second floor will complement the chimney.

-Wieters contributing to O's from the sidelines | MLB.com

BALTIMORE -- Things have gone surprisingly well for the Orioles since Matt Wieters played his last game for them on May 10. Despite the All-Star catcher's season-ending Tommy John surgery, as well as a season-ending injury to star third baseman Manny Machado, the O's rolled to a division title and begin their first American League Championship Series since 1997 on Friday at 8 p.m. ET on TBS. Wieters has had to find ways to keep busy and remain useful. In August, he had the LASIK surgery he'd been meaning to get. Now he spends a huge portion of his down time wheeling and dealing to defend his fantasy football championship.

-O's reach three-year extension with Hardy | MLB.com

BALTIMORE -- Perhaps it was an odd timing, on the eve of the Orioles' first American League Championship Series since 1997, to announce a three-year contract extension for shortstop J.J. Hardy. But manager Buck Showalter would have done it in the middle of Friday's Game 1 (8 p.m. ET on TBS) if necessary.

At Fish Stripes

-2014 Marlins Season Review: Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Fish Stripes

Jarrod Saltalamacchia had a less than stellar first season with the Miami Marlins, as a drop in power and a bad season framing pitches lowered his value in 2014.

-Marlins position changes: Nathan Eovaldi may head to bullpen - Fish Stripes

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro recently put together a list of five possible position changes to watch this offseason. Here we discuss the future of Nathan Eovaldi as a starter.

-2014 Marlins Season Review: Garrett Jones - Fish Stripes

The Miami Marlins signed Garrett Jones to a two-year contract, but one year into his deal, the Fish are already concerned thanks to a terrible 2014 season.

-Marlins position changes: Derek Dietrich to first base - Fish Stripes

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro recently put together a list of five possible position changes to watch this offseason. Here we discuss the future Derek Dietrich at second base.

-Nathan Eovaldi and the need for a changeup - Fish Stripes

The Miami Marlins are considering moving Nathan Eovaldi to the bullpen because he lacks a tertiary offering against left-handed hitters. But plenty of other successful pitchers have a similar problem, including someone on the Fish right now.

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