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PSA Comments of the Day 11/3/14: Yankees still looking for a hitting coach. Apply inside.

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It's Monday. Baseball is still gone. The Yankees still do not have a hitting coach. Greg Bird. Pitchers and Catchers report in 108 days.

Comments of the Day

Two days ago, Masahiro Tanaka turned 26 years old. Andrew reminded everyone in a FanShot. No one paid any attention to him. You all made Andrew sad. I hope you're happy.

Speaking of making Andrew sad...

Shaun asked a rather bizarre question. We all gave him an appropriate answer. Then Waffles came through with the excellent reference.

GIF of the Day

Someone stated that back in 1992-1993, the Yankees didn't really have any other option than to stick with Bernie Williams. I responded by saying that they could have stuck with Mel Hall. Michael posted the perfect GIF in response to that horrifying thought.

Honorable Mod Mention

Andrew has a rough go of it yesterday, as you saw up above. Thankfully, the happiness of Yogi Berra and getting the HMM Award should help him through these dark times.

Fun Questions
  • Pretend you're applying for the Hitting Coach position. What do you bring to the team? What are your strengths and weaknesses? What would you hope to improve?
  • Milk Chocolate or Dark Chocolate?
Song of the Day

All Night Long by The Mary Jane Girls

As always, link us your song of the day!

This whole "no baseball" thing kinda sucks. Some decent Hot Stove news might help to pass the time, but alas the Yankees have not done anything. If they don't give us some good news soon, we may have to bust out the puppy dog eyes. Get your face ready, PSAers.

Come back, baseball.


Yankees begin contract negotiations with Chase Headley

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Monday is the official first day of unrestricted free agency and it appears the Yankees have wasted no time in making their plans known as they have begun contract negotiations with third baseman Chase HeadleyAccording to Jon Heyman, even with Alex Rodriguez returning and the presence of Pablo Sandoval on the market, the Yankees view Headley as their No. 1 third base target this offseason.

After trading Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula to the Padres at the 2014 trade deadline, Headley provided solid production at the hot corner, something they have very much lacked over the last few years. He hit .262/.371/.398 with six home runs and solid defense after putting on the pinstripes, and while he may not be the most exciting name out there, he still has plenty of value.

As Heyman notes, the Yankees' interest in Headley strongly suggests that they view A-Rod as less of a starting third baseman and more of a DH and backup infielder, which could end up including first base as well. It's important to get a deal like this out of the way quickly so that they can establish what everyone's role will be and they can continue to look into areas of need that will require more money to fill. At the moment, the talks seem preliminary, but news has come quickly this offseason, so maybe we're in for some excitement fairly soon.

Yankees begin talks with Chase Headley

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The team is looking to bring the third baseman with solid defense back to the Bronx.

The Yankees have begun negotiations on a new contract with free agent third baseman Chase Headley, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman also says that Headley, who was traded to the Yankees in July, reportedly likes being in New York more than some expected.

Headley, 30, may not be the same player that put up .875 OPS and league-leading 115 RBI's in 2012 but he still plays an elite third base defense. Also, he hit better in Bronx - 119 OPS+ in 58 games as opposed to 90 OPS+ in 77 games for the Padres. His lack of power may be disappointing but if he can produce similar offensive attributes as he did with the Yankees while playing great defense, he will keep the team happy.

Contrary to Pablo Sandoval, the other big-name third baseman in free agency, Headley is unlikely to cost around $100 million to lock up. Per Heyman's article, New York likes Sandoval but "they are also quite comfortable with Headley." Headley seems like a way to go for the team if they also want to target big name starters like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Pablo Sandoval

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Will the Kung Fu Panda be heading to the Bronx Zoo?

2014 Statistics: .279/.324/.415, 16 HR, 73 RBI, .323 wOBA, 111 wRC+

2015 Age: 29

Position: Third base

In a weak class of free agent hitters, Pablo Sandoval has set himself up for a nice payday this offseason. Signed by the Giants as a catcher out of Venezuela, he was converted over to third base permanently in 2009. He has been the model of consistency, putting up similar numbers in each of the last three seasons. His resume now includes three World Series rings, a World Series MVP, and two All-Star appearances before the age of 30.

Looking at the chart below, Sandoval has been a remarkably consistent hitter. While the numbers don’t jump out at you, he’s been a solid producer at a position of offensive weakness throughout the majors.

Year

Avg

OPS

HR

RBI

RC

2012

0.283

0.789

12

63

59

2013

0.278

0.758

14

79

72

2014

0.279

0.739

16

73

77

Now using Baseball-Reference’s neutralized batting tool, I adjusted for the 2014 season, American League and Yankee Stadium as his home park. The improvement was substantial in all categories, with the exception of home runs. It was a little surprising to see that home runs only improved slightly during that time period using the bandbox in the Bronx as his home stadium.

Year

AVG

OPS

HR

RBI

RC

2012

0.299

0.831

13

71

69

2013

0.296

0.806

16

91

85

2014

0.296

0.785

18

84

91

Looking at his spray chart, a few things things stand out. You’ll notice that he hits the ball to all fields when he hits from the left side of the plate, which he does 68% of the time. He has some opposite field power to right field as well.


Source: FanGraphs

The amount of ground balls he hits would normally be a concern because, for the most part, ground balls are outs. However, judging by the fact that many of his grounders reached the outfield, it would be interesting to see whether he's hitting the ball where they ain't or if his batted ball exit velocity is very high in comparison to the average player.

Sandoval's hit by zone chart shows that he also has possesses exceptional plate coverage, being able to reach far out of the strike zone and, not just make contact, but also collect a hit. Whether the pitch is thrown low or high, inside or outside, in or out of the zone, he has a tremendous ability to make a pitcher work.

Hits vs Righties:

20
14
8
5
6
9
10
6
7
8
0
31
21







Defensively, Pablo Sandoval has gone from a liability to Gold Glove candidate this season. It appears that Sandoval's weight loss in the offseason has paid off, allowing him increased quickness and range. His UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), came in at 3.5, which is above league-average and his DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) was four runs better than league average. Check out this clip of a tremendous diving play that Sandoval made this season.

The biggest concern in giving Sandoval a long-term deal would be his struggle to maintain an optimum playing weight. Should this become an issue again, his defense and health would surely suffer. There's no question he is a talented baseball player, however the one holdup might be come from his final contract length–it's going to be much too long for a player like him. The Yankees should actually be targeting Chase Headley as their Plan-A and ultimately try to avoid a long-term, $100 million+ contract with Pablo Sandoval, even if he's one of the best third baseman on the market.

Help us choose the funniest Yankees moment of 2014

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Which Yankees moment this year made you laugh the most? (No, futility does not count.)

Over the next couple weeks, Pinstripe Alley will ask for your help in determining SB Nation's best MLB GIFs of the season by voting on the top Yankees GIFs of the year in several different categories. The series begins today with the five funniest Yankees GIFs of 2014.

Mark Teixeira, Beekeeper

Teix-bees_medium

Ah, who could forget Tex during that one spring training game against the Red Sox where a swarm of bees caused a delay. So what was the meaning of the honey?

"What I thought was, if you could just do a line of honey out to the parking lot, the bees would maybe follow it, and then just leave us alone." - Sporting News

...

...

Tex, how do you even

Captain Troll

Jeter Ichiro troll

Future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki did not have seasons to remember at the plate, but over the past couple years, they've formed an amusing bond. After Ichiro's only home run of the year, the Captain put on his ultimate troll face to pretend like he was unimpressed. Lulz.

"It's a Tarp!"

"Rain delay theater" was one of my favorite posts of the year due to the sheer amount of ridiculous GIFs to emerge from one long rain delay on July 23rd that ended up being called hours later before play ever resumed. One member of the grounds crew in particular struggled to get the tarp on the field.

Tarp trap

A moment of silence for his memory.

Pizza Order for Brett

Gardner call

Another gem from rain delay theater, Brett Gardner was seen at one point on the phone that's normally just used for calling the bullpen. We can only assume he was ordering a pizza during the delay.

Ryan self-bump

Ryan self-bump

Brendan Ryan is not a good hitter. He had just four doubles in 124 plate appearances this year, but he notched one of them on July 3rd against the Twins. He expected a fist bump from first base coach Mick Kelleher. He did not get one. So he took care of business himself. Honorable.

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So which of the five GIFs above do you vote as the funniest of the Yankees' season? Vote in the poll below, and our selection will have the chance to be nominated for the SBN MLB-wide funniest GIF of the season!

Poll
Which was the funniest GIF of the Yankees' season?

  37 votes |Results

Yankees extend qualifying offer to David Robertson and not Hiroki Kuroda

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Ahead of today's qualifying offer deadline, the Yankeeshave offered closer David Robertson the $15.3 million deal over one season. To this point, no MLB player has accepted the qualifying offer and it is unfathomable that Robertson would be the first. Watching bullpen after bullpen melt down in the postseason pretty much ensures that Robertson will receive a hefty contract for his services this offseason. He's managed to be one of the most consistent relievers around baseball the last few seasons, and he managed to seamlessly fill the role vacated by the retired Mariano Rivera. That's no easy task, to say the least. Robertson was great as the Yankees' closer in 2014, and his brilliance allowed the emergence of Dellin Betances in the setup role where he thrived.

Robertson was the only Yankee to receive the qualifying offer, with the only other player eligible to receive one being Hiroki Kuroda. Perhaps the Yankees think he will retire or pitch in Japan next season. Otherwise, it seems like the Yankees would only want him back on a one-year deal that was less than the $15.3 million of the qualifying offer. If they have bigger plans like Max Scherzer or Jon Lester, it could mean that they just don't find Kuroda to be a priority for their rotation in 2015. The lack of a qualifying offer is good for any team that may sign Kuroda in the offseason, as he won't require giving up a draft pick. That might be enough for a team to offer him a contract that keeps him out of retirement for at least one more season.

Hopefully the Yankees realize that there is little chance of Robertson taking the qualifying offer when he can receive so much more on the open market. It's difficult to find a reliever with as much sustained dominance as Robertson has exhibited, and they would be foolish to let him get away if they can manage to get ahead of other teams before the bidding gets too high. Keeping Robertson means maximizing the value of Betances by not locking him into the ninth inning. This team is undoubtedly better with Robertson than it is without him.

Yankees rumors: New York not interested in pursuing Pablo Sandoval, Max Scherzer, or Jon Lester

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Well, okay.

Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News heard from a source that the Yankees don't intend to pursue free agents Pablo Sandoval, Max Scherzer, or Jon Lester this offseason. The good news is that the source claims the team is focused on bringing back third baseman Chase Headley and starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy, both of whom made strong impressions after being traded to New York in the middle of last season.

With Alex Rodriguez and Martin Prado already under contract on top of their interest in Chase Headley, not pursuing Sandoval seems like an obvious choice. The Giants' third baseman is going to get one of the top contracts of the offseason for his services. Avoiding Scherzer might make sense if the team doesn't want to give up their first round draft pick after their huge spending spree last offseason. The decision on Lester might make a bit less sense, considering that he wouldn't be tied to draft pick compensation after being traded to the Athletics over the summer. It's possible that the team feels like the deal he will receive is just too lofty for what they want to spend. Headley and McCarthy are likely seen as bargains by comparison, and the team still could go after Stephen Drew for shortstop instead of one of the bigger names like Asdrubal Cabrera.

One name that is noticeably absent from the list of free agents the Yankees won't be going after is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez, like Sandoval, will likely get one of the biggest contracts of the offseason. Could the Yankees bring him in to try to replace Derek Jeter at shortstop? There are obvious concerns about Ramirez's durability which gives the situation some pause. However, if the Yankees want to make a splash to put people in seats for next season with renewed excitement, going after Hanley might be one of the few ways to accomplish that if they are going to pass on Scherzer and Lester.

Bringing back McCarthy for the rotation would mean that the starters would be some combination of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Shane Greene, CC Sabathia, and McCarthy until Ivan Nova returns. David Phelps would likely be the next man up in case of injury. There are, unfortunately, a lot of question marks there. Sabathia's degenerative knee condition seems like it could be a ticking time bomb, and Tanaka's elbow is no sure thing either. Pineda has also dealt with his fair share of injury concerns. It seems like going into 2015 with that rotation requires everything breaking just right and hoping for the best. Lester or Scherzer would undoubtedly serve as a pretty nice insurance policy in case some of those things don't go right, which is usually a safe bet.

Do you agree with the rumored approach of the team? Should they reconsider their position on any of these free agents?

MLB: The Progressive?

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Ned Yost may have lost the World Series, but a managerial trend toward run prevention may be started in his honour.

[Editor's Note: This is the site's first piece by new contributor Michael Bradburn! Welcome him aboard.]

In the end, Ned Yost and his Kansas City Royals were only 2 runs away from winning game 7 of the 2014 World Series by a score of 4-3. Or, perhaps more accurately, they were 2 prevented runs from winning 2-1.

To the Royals, this postseason was all about run prevention. Their commitment to run prevention was troubling at times. And yet through the wild card, ALDS and ALCS, they were undefeated, so who could argue? It took until game 4 of the World Series before a team legitimately beat Yost’s strategy with continuous hits in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings, all without leaving the yard.

But perhaps this World Series – if it teaches us anything other than waiting 29 years doesn’t entitle you to anything – means baseball is taking defensive metrics a lot more seriously now. And, with the announcement of the Gold Glove finalists, maybe Major League general managers will give more credit to Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.

In a season in which we said farewell to Derek Jeter, a lot of people rightfully questioned how The Captain ever won a Gold Glove. In their eyes, Major League Baseball gets a lot of things wrong. And that’s a disappointing view to me. I always want to take the positive viewpoint, so long as the data supports it. So, when baseball announced the Gold Glove finalists, I wanted to see if defensive metrics have gained any traction over the past decade.

I decided to do this by looking at every player’s defensive runs saved (DRS), ultimate zone rating (UZR) and overall defense (Def). I wanted to use a good array of metrics for a couple of reasons: first, to see which one the Gold Glove voters seemed to favour; second, because each metric evaluates a player’s defense in a different way. UZR, for instance, is a measure of a player’s range against players of the same position. Therefore, a metric like this carries more influence over positions that are given larger zones to cover, such as center field or shortstop. Defensive runs saved, although problematic in its own way, is better for measuring the defensive worth of players whose range does not matter as much, such as catcher.

With this year’s finalists, how seriously are the voters taking these metrics? Let’s first look at the 2014 All-DRS Team, where an asterisk denotes that the player is not a Gold Glove finalist:

American LeagueAL PlayerDRSNL PlayerDRS
PDallas Keuchel10Clayton Kershaw7
CSalvador Perez8Russell Martin12
1BChris Davis*8Adrian Gonzalez12
2BIan Kinsler20D.J. LeMahieu16
3BJosh Donaldson20Nolan Arenado16
SSJ.J Hardy10Andrelton Simmons28
LFAlex Gordon27Christian Yelich13
CFLeonys Martin*15Juan Lagares28
RFKevin Kiermaier15Jason Heyward32

16 for 18 isn’t bad. It is curious why Chris Davis or Leonys Martin didn’t even make it as finalists. This is where you get into narratives, though, as Davis may have been omitted for his transgression against the drug policy late in the season. Honestly, I was surprised to see him among the best defenders – albeit at first base – at all, which is also just narrative. Not only did Chris Davis account for more run prevention than the other three Gold Glove finalists though, so too did Mike Napoli. Albert Pujols, the best of the finalists, is actually third in run prevention at his position.

Moving on, to the All-UZR Team of 2014 (remembering, of course, that range data isn’t kept for pitchers or catchers):

PositionAL PlayerUZRNL PlayerUZR
1BAlbert Pujols6.3Anthony Rizzo*7.0
2BDustin Pedroia18.3D.J. LeMahieu10.7
3BJosh Donaldson15.5Todd Frazier*6.5
SSJ.J. Hardy13.9Andrelton Simmons15.5
LFAlex Gordon25.0Christian Yelich12.8
CFJackie Bradley Jr.15.9Billy Hamilton20.1
RFKevin Kiermaier17.7Jason Heyward24.1

Chase Headley technically had the best UZR in all of baseball last season (20.9), but he is omitted because he changed leagues from the San Diego Padres to the New York Yankees. Also, Kevin Kiermaier is up against a small sample size here and is still far and away the best right fielder, beating second-place Nick Markakis at 6.2. Major League Baseball finished 12/14 – another respectable ratio. It is again curious, though, why Todd Frazier’s 6.5 UZR and 7 DRS would be overlooked for Pablo Sandoval’s 3.5 UZR and 4 DRS. Also, why would the -5.0 UZR and 0 DRS of Adam Laroche surpass Anthony Rizzo’s 7.0 UZR and 6 DRS? In fact, Laroche was the worst defensive first baseman in the National League according to his -15.3 in Def.

And, while we’re on the topic, the All-Def Team of 2014, with pitchers omitted:

PositionAL PlayerDefNL PlayerDef
CSalvador Perez17Jonathan Lucroy16.6
1BAlbert Pujols-2.4Justin Morneau-3.2
2BDustin Pedroia20.3D.J. LeMahieu12.7
3BJosh Donaldson17.7Juan Uribe14.1
SSJ.J. Hardy20.4Andrelton Simmons22.1
LFAlex Gordon17.9Christian Yelich6.7
CFJackie Bradley Jr.17.5Billy Hamilton22.1
RFNori Aoki*0.6Jason Heyward17.3

Nori Aoki (0.6 Def through 937.1 innings) was overlooked for Kevin Kiermaier (13.3 Def through 526.1 innings), Kole Calhoun (0.3 Def through 1036.1 innings), and Nick Markakis (-0.6 Def through 1314.1 innings). Whether this is a transgression is genuinely a matter of opinion. How much do you value Def? How much do you value actual innings logged in the outfield? In my opinion, he probably should have been included. With that said, you should know that even though Aoki had good range, he actually had -8 DRS. Sometimes ability to cover field doesn’t actually equate defensive prowess. We’ll mark it as a loss, even though right field in the American League was just underwhelming this year, for a grade of 15/16.

Overall, these aren’t bad ratios for Major League Baseball. Whether or not the actual winners reflect this progressive thinking, we’ll have to wait and see. Over the past three years, the American League Gold Glove winner for each position has agreed with one of these metrics 17/27 times, while the National League has only agreed 13/27. That is to say, the winner of the Gold Glove in each position has led one category of UZR, DRS or Def only 30 out of a possible 54 times. One would hope that the above tables show at least a step in the right direction.

Back in 2003, the American League awarded the Gold Glove for shortstop, and the three outfielders – as they hadn’t been split into RF, CF and LF yet – to the players who led their categories in Def. Also, the American League incidentally chose the pitcher who led their league in DRS. The National League only went 3 for 9 that season, choosing two outfielders and a second baseman who led in Def as well as UZR.

Whether we look back at this season as a starting point for defensive metrics, or just an arbitrary year in which narrative actually happened to agree with metrics in some cases is up for discussion. However, the Gold Glove electorate does seem to be taking defensive metrics with a bit more gravitas.

. . .

All statistics courtest of FanGraphs.

Michael Bradburn is a Contributor for Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @mwbii.


Yankees right to pursue Chase Headley contract

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He isn't elite, but Headley is the best and most realistic option to play third base for the Yankees in 2015, whether they like it or not.

The Yankees want to bring back third baseman Chase Headley, and according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the two sides have begun talks to try to make that a reality. The news comes barely less than a month after Heyman reported in early October that there were "strong indications" the Yankees had interest in re-signing their third baseman, who had a .371 on-base percentage during his final 58 games of the season after a July 22 trade from San Diego to New York.

For all that the third base position has plagued the Yankees in recent years, the team has alternatives to Headley: notably, looking to sign Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval, a free agent this offseason, or playing the returning Alex Rodriguez at the hot corner.

But in reality, signing Headley makes the most sense for the Yankees—if not for his ability, for the lack of other viable replacements. Sandoval, with his consistent regular season production and back-to-back historic postseasons, will come at a steep price, perhaps even a nine-digit contract. The Yankees have significantly less payroll flexibility than in previous seasons, and even if they could afford to give Sandoval a massive contract, they would almost certainly have to engage in a bidding war with the Red Sox, which wouldn't exactly be a favorable situation. Other teams (presumably ones with less than $168 million in payroll obligations for 2015) will also be interested in Sandoval, making the Yankees' chances of re-signing Headley—for much, much less money—a more realistic goal.

A-Rod, meanwhile, is returning from a long absence from the majors and hasn't played 100 games at third base since 2010. (He last played more than 131 games there in 2007.) At 39 years of age, the Yankees might figure that Rodriguez would be a more logical fit as a designated hitter or first baseman (as Heyman touches on in his column), an argument that has its merits. Aside from the obvious decline all players undergo as they age, A-Rod's bat would likely be much more effective without the strain of playing in the field each day, or at least playing the less-taxing first base position.

The flip-side of that, however, is that the Yankees have more than enough aging veterans with creaky joints (and bloated contracts) who will also need to spend time at DH or first base. Namely, Carlos Beltran played just 32 games in the outfield in 2014, one year after spending 137 games there with the Cardinals. His -27.3 Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games (meaning he was roughly that many runs below average in a 150-game span) was no anomaly either; he was at -18.7 in the same category in 2013 and has been in the black once since 2008, per FanGraphs.

Worse yet, playing A-Rod at first base would eliminate the glove of Mark Teixeira, who has played stalwart defense throughout his career at that position. (Rodriguez has never played there.) Last year was no different, with Teixeira posting a 7.1 UZR/150—again, not a product of small sample size, as it was the sixth time in the last seven years (and fourth straight year) in which he had a positive zone rating.

But all of that still might not be enough to offset the reality of A-Rod's situation. That is, how good will he actually be (anyone's guess at this point) after taking a year off? Can he last for a full season? Will he be involved in further legal troubles? No matter how poor Beltran's fielding is or how much of a downgrade A-Rod is to Teixeira at first base, signing Headley would eliminate the many risks of sticking A-Rod at third base. Plus, though Teixeira has presumably recovered from his wrist surgery and will be fully charged for the season, there's no guarantee that he and Beltran stay healthy. With a team as old and injury-prone as the Yankees, reliable position players are especially valuable, making it almost a no-brainer to bring Headley back.

Around the Empire: New York Yankee News - 11/4/2014

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Yankees predicted to sign Max Scherzer and Hanley Ramirez; the prospects mostly likely to break into the majors in 2015.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: Both MLB Trade Rumors and Sports Illustrated have predicted that the Yankees will sign Max Scherzer and Hanley Ramirez, let David Robertson walk.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: The Yankees have spoken to David Huff's agent and may want to bring back the lefty, who is arbitration eligible.

New York Post | Joel Sherman: Greg Bird, Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin continue to thrive in the Arizona League.

It's About The Money | Brad Vietrogoski: The prospects most likely to break into the majors in 2015.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: Yankees expected to scout Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Brandon McCarthy

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Is it time for a McCarthy reunion in the Bronx?

2014 Statistics: 4.05 ERA, 200 IP, 7.88 K/9, 3.55 FIP, 3.0 WAR

2015 Age: 31, turns 32 on July 7th

Position: Right-handed starting pitcher

Brian Cashman pulled off one of his better moves as Yankees GM when he traded Vidal Nuno to the Diamondbacks for Brandon McCarthy and cash. In 109.2 innings out in Arizona, McCarthy had struggled to the tune of a 5.01 ERA before trading in the desert for pinstripes. The McCarthy that the Yankees got was everything that they could have hoped for, pitching to a 2.89 ERA in 90.1 innings to close out the year. It might not matter too much on the baseball field, but McCarthy also brought delight to New York in the form of his and his wife Amanda's tweets. And, of course, their Westie named Hobbes help too. McCarthy's success on the field, coupled with the fact that the Yankees' rotation for next season leaves a lot to be desired, makes a reunion between the two seems like a no-brainer. Comments toward the end of the season seemed to suggest that McCarthy was comfortable enough in New York to sign a new deal with the club, and rumor has it that he is among the team's top priorities this offseason.

McCarthy is coming off a two-year deal that he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks that was worth $15.5 million. Being traded during the season ensures that draft pick compensation is not tied to his signing, which could drive the price up a bit for potential suitors. This past season was the first time that McCarthy was able to top 150 innings since his 2011 season with the Oakland Athletics. That being the case, a deal in the range of three years or so seems like a pretty good starting point. If the Yankees truly have no interest in the other big names on the free agent pitching market, like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields, then re-signing McCarthy becomes all the more important. He solidifies another spot in the rotation that would otherwise be left as a question mark at best.

A lot of credit for McCarthy's turnaround is attributed to the fact that he started to use his cutter again after being traded to the Yankees despite being discouraged from throwing it during his time in Arizona. If that is true, then it seems reasonable to believe that the McCarthy we saw in pinstripes is a little closer to the McCarthy we can expect in 2015. The guy we all saw pitch down the stretch for the Yankees would be a huge asset to the team next season, and the rumors to this point seem to suggest that the Yankees agree. Hopefully they can reach a deal with one another before too long.

Yankees 'have no plans' to pursue free agent Jon Lester

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Red Sox fans everywhere can calm down about that one. Well, maybe.

The Yankees did not play well in 2014. They spent heavily on free agents Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka, but came away with another mediocre campaign that showed off more weaknesses than strengths. They have another winter to address those issues, and the resources to do so, but they might not go about it the same way they did a year ago: according to the New York Daily News, the Yankees "have no plans" to pursue a few of the upper-tier free agents of this offseason, a group that includes former Red Sox starter Jon Lester.

This is good news! Well, if you're a Red Sox fan, anyway. Losing Jacoby Ellsbury wasn't what hurt many Sox fans last year: it was losing him to pinstripes. If the Yankees don't plan on going after Lester, it at least softens the blow should he sign somewhere besides Boston, and does rid the Red Sox of one impossibly rich suitor to contend with. It's not a win-win, because there will be other teams with interest in the former Sox ace, but at least none of them are the Yankees. And the one that is the Rays can't afford him, anyway.

Remember this, though: a single report suggesting the Yankees are going to focus on their own free agents -- Chase Headley and Brandon McCarthy -- instead of Lester, Pablo Sandoval, and Max Scherzer doesn't mean that's what will go down. Headley could be lured away to Boston (or wherever) on a longer or better-paying deal. McCarthy reportedly is into being on the Yankees, but maybe someone else who can't afford the top free agent pitchers goes all-in on McCarthy to ensure they get someone. If that happens, maybe the Yankees switch gears and decide to throw their considerable financial weight around to bring in Panda or Lester or Scherzer.

Essentially, it's good news that the Yankees don't plan on pursuing Lester. It's also worth remembering that they didn't "plan" to go over the luxury tax in 2014, but then did a 180 and spent more than anyone else last offseason. They're the absolute best at making huge signings come out of nowhere, and part of it is because their true intentions aren't always known. Plans can change, so let's just hope this one does not.

PSA Comments of the Day 11/4/14: Maddon to the Cubs and Molitor to the Twins.

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The hot stove is under way. Joe Maddon is now the Cubs Manager. Paul Molitor is now the Twins Manager. Pitchers and Catchers report in 107 days.

Comments of the Day

GiantsFan101, who I am going to assume is a fan of the New York Football Giants and not the San Francisco Giants, wants no part of Pablo Sandoval in the Bronx.

Blanky's appropriate response to River Ave U's very long post.

While the Yankees lost the AL East crown to the O's this year, he shows that we clearly won in the GIF department.

Tanya, who killed it with her article photo choices yesterday, picked the most adorable David Robertson photo. Meanwhile, after we learned that the Yankees did not offer Hiroki Kuroda a QO, Andrew posts a potential farewell GIF.

nj23nut responds to the thought of just blindly handing the closer job over to Dellin Betances after one year.

Whether El Cruz's embed tweet about the Yankees not going after these three players is a good thing or not is up for debate.

Finally, Jason nails it on the head.

GIF of the Day

The only appropriate GIF for the news that the Yankees are beginning contract negotiations with Chase Heddy. (Hopefully no one leaves this particular blurb hanging in the comments section.)

Honorable Mod Mention

I'm not even sure who should get the HMM from this post. Waffles did get her own comment blue'd, but she's riding off of my original comment's jazz hands.

Fun Questions
  • Joe Maddon: Super Elite Manager or Overrated Wank Depository?
  • Least favorite food ever?
Song of the Day

All The Strange Strange Creatures by Murray Gold from Doctor Who

As always, link us your song of the day!

The hot stove is already beginning to heat up. As of yesterday, the Yankees have announced that they're not pursuing Jon Lester, Pablo Sandoval, or Max Scherzer. The last one makes me sad, but only due to an inside joke among the Pinstripe Alley Podcast hosts. What other such announcements will be made today? Perhaps a new hitting coach will finally be revealed? Will Rob Thomson ever be fired?

Come back, baseball.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Hanley Ramirez

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When he is on the field, he is arguably one of the best hitters in baseball. He just hasn't been on the field very often as of late.

2014 Statistics: .283/.369/.448 (135 wRC+), 13 HR, 3.4 fWAR, 2.7 WARP

2015 Age: 31

2015 Position: Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez is easily, by true talent at least, the best offensive infielder on the market this winter. At a career mark of 133 wRC+, only Alex Rodriguez has been a better hitter at shortstop (kind of) in the past 20 years. The Yankees have been in dire need of an impact right-handed bat in their lineup for the past couple of years, and Ramirez fits the bill to a T. The only problem is, though, that he can't be relied upon to play every day or to play shortstop for his entire contract, however long that may be.

In 2013 we saw how talented Ramirez could be. In 86 games he hit an absolutely ridiculous .442 wOBA (and 5 fWAR!), which is basically a Babe Ruth-esque level of play in limited time. But of course, 86 games sticks out. If the Yankees are going to invest in a long term solution for the infield, then it can't be someone who can only play for half of the season. Sure, a half season of what he did in 2013 combined with Brendan Ryan is still great, but I doubt he performs like that past his age 32 season. In the past couple of seasons he's had a torn ligament in his thumb, and numerous strains in his calf, hamstring, and oblique. These types of nagging injuries only get worse with age, and the Yankees do not have the infield flexibility to deal with these injuries should they (they will) arise.

There's also the question of defense and positioning. Depending on which defensive measure you use, Ramirez is either pretty bad or terrible as a defensive shortstop. He's about -8.8 UZR/150 for his career or -78.9 FRAA. Either way, this is going to get much worse. Ramirez will certainly be so dreadful defensively that he will be forced to third base or DH for the last few years of his contract, and I'm sure the Yankees will have a number of older guys vying for those positions.

If we put those all together, we get a potentially great offensive player with poor defense and a sketchy injury history. That's not exactly easy to parse, and it's especially complicated if you are the Yankees' front office. The Yankees are now knee deep in expensive contracts after yet another failed run at the postseason. This mediocrity looks to continue in 2015, and this time without a retirement tour boost. When Ramirez is healthy, he is an amazing player that will greatly increase the team's odds of making the playoffs. But if they once again fail and the plan implodes, then we're looking at yet another mess of a contract.

The next few years could be a watershed moment for the future of the organization. The team has quite a few contracts expiring (including Brian Cashman's!) in a few years, and that could be a great opportunity to reset if they need to. But if they commit to yet another lengthy deal that fails, then it could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. They need to be absolutely sure that he will be good for a few years, and I don't know if that's clear.

If I'm the front office, I pass on this. This just screams of a bad contract waiting to happen, unless his stock has fallen so low that he can be had for a fair price and fewer years. Because that's unlikely, I think it'd be best that the Yankees focus on players that can act as stopgaps for the next few years. With a few more excellent seasons, Ramirez is nearly Hall of Fame caliber. But he's also a bad injury or a few bad years away from becoming Nomar Garciaparra after 30, so there's that, too. If the Yankees want to pursue him, it'd be best to tread cautiously.

Anatomy of a hypothetical Reds trade

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There are a ton of moving parts in any MLB trade, but the Reds find themselves shopping for something quite specific with a currency only a few teams are looking for.

Walt Jocketty and his Jitterbug are going to be busy this winter.

The GM of the Cincinnati Reds has a bevy of crucial decisions to make before the 2015 squad heads to the Land of the Endless Strip Mall for spring training in February, and a myriad of moving parts will make each shot he calls more difficult than the average fan will give him credit for.  There's a payroll crunch, a series of injuries to vital players, a crucial need for offense in an offensively depressed era, and a handful of key pitchers facing free agency that need their contracts either extended or pawned off.  There's a top-heavy farm system that may need to be bolstered, yet there are openings on the major league roster that must be filled without forming blockades.  There's a coaching staff that will need evaluation in its second year (under hopefully healthier circumstances), an owner bent on maintaining the success seen earlier this decade, and a city starved for a deep run before the current core begins a full decline.

And, of course, there's a National League Central Division that is poised to be the deepest, most talented division in all of baseball in 2015.

The Reds have backed themselves into an interesting corner, albeit one that doesn't completely prevent them from improving the club with the upcoming season in mind.  The following is a list of the most important specifics Walt will have to navigate in order to make any sort of major move this offseason.

The Payroll

The 2014 Reds had the highest payroll in the NL Central at roughly $114 million, and the departures of Ryan Ludwick, Jack Hannahan, Ramon Santiago, and Jake Elmore won't shave any significant amount off that number.  Factor in the arbitration raises due to Mike Leake, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Heisey, Aroldis Chapman, Logan Ondrusek, and Zack Cozart, and the 2015 payroll will likely exceed the previous year's number even without a significant outside addition.

Jocketty is on record stating that the team won't be after any high-dollar guys, meaning any significant addition will either need his existing salary to be partially covered by the trading team, his existing salary to be cheap, or his salary addition to be offset by the trade of one of the high-dollar players currently on the Reds.  Given the recent history of Walt's moves, that suggests that a trade will be the way the team looks to augment the poor offensive performance of 2014.

The Starting Rotation

The Reds have cultivated an army of arms in recent years, a far cry from the days when Paul Wilson started on Opening Day and Todd Van Poppel was being counted on for double-digit starts each season.  If no moves are made, the club will reach Goodyear in February with each of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Alfredo Simon, Tony Cingrani, Daniel Corcino, David Holmberg, and Dylan Axelrod under contract and having made multiple starts for the team in 2014.  Robert Stephenson will potentially be in the mix, too, after having been ranked by some as the top RHP in the minors prior to 2014, as will well regarded arms like Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot, and Ben Lively.  The club also invested heavily in Cuban defector Raisel Iglesias, and the 7 year contract they signed him to included intentions on trying him out as a starter.

There is no denying that there's depth.  The question, however, is whether there's too much depth for the 25 man roster and payroll to agree with one another.

Each of Latos, Leake, Simon, and Cueto are entering their last years under contract in 2015, meaning Walt will face decisions surrounding each's place in the team's future plans, and soon.  If any is deemed to not be a fiscally prudent piece long-term, the only way to maximize their value on the trade market would be to move one - or more - before the season in order to keep any potential Qualifying Offer (QO) on the table (since players traded in-season aren't allowed to receive QO's at the end of the season).  With the likelihood of each being signed to long deals virtually nil, this is the most feasible set of trade bait Walt will have to work with.

However, the elephant in the room is the projected health of the rest of the staff, since Bailey was shelved with forearm surgery in September, Cingrani missed the bulk of the year with shoulder issues, and converted reliever Simon pitched over 110 innings more in 2014 than in either 2013 or 2012.  How much those three can be counted on will weigh heavily on any decision to move any of the SPs.

Finding a Bat in a Batless Market

League-average OPS in 2014 was just .700, the lowest such mark in over 20 years.  League-average slugging percentage was a paltry .386, also the lowest such mark in over 20 years.  While the Reds' bats were busy sleepwalking their way to being universally the worst hitting team in baseball this side of the San Diego Padres, most every other team was also busy having seasons much worse than those they'd had in recent memory, too.

Offense is down across the board, and MLB has entered into an age that is being dominated by pitching, defense, and creative scouting that has made any player who can get on base with any sort of power a prized commodity.  Unfortunately, that's the exact commodity that the Reds will be targeting this Winter, and thanks to the existing contracts and pieces on the squad, the only real position where the team can add that mythical bat is in LF, further limiting the pool of players that they may be able to pick off.

Adding to the dilemma is the pitching scenario mentioned above.  If one of Latos, Leake, or Cueto is the trade chip that Walt plans on using to add a bat, that means the trade partner must be on the market for just a single year of a high-caliber, high-priced arm, something only teams intent on winning and contending in 2015 will be focused on.

But how many teams have enough offensive depth to sacrifice a bat capable of helping a team contend in 2015 to pick up a pitcher that can only help them win in that year and that year only?  If contending in 2015 is the Reds' partner's focus, why give up an asset so scarce for the very year you need it?

A conundrum, indeed.

★★★

To summarize, the Reds need a cheap bat for LF that can help their 2015 offense improve from the 2014 doldrums but not be under a pricey, long-term contract that would block stud prospect Jesse Winker down the line.  They need to trade pitching to get that bat, but preferably pitching that is tied to salaries high enough that trading them would free up the space to pay the acquired bat.  They also need to find a team that already has enough offense and figures to be just a pitcher away from a 2015 run, but also a team that doesn't want a pitcher that is under contract for a lengthy period of time.

Simple enough, right?  Fortunately, Walt Jocketty has shown a willingness to be creative with his trades, and he's pulled off a pair in recent years that may well serve as a blueprint for what we'll witness this Winter, too.  Namely, a three team trade.

Finding a third team that has a mind to either shed payroll or add minor league depth - or both - would let the Reds shed a pitcher for a bat, a second team shed prospects for a pitcher, and a third team shed a bat for prospects, things that all happened in some fashion when Cincinnati picked up Shin-Soo Choo for 2013 and traded Ryan Hanigan prior to 2014.

And that's where I expect Walt will aim.  It won't be Giancarlo Stanton or Ryan Braun in LF, and it won't be a trade of Johnny Cueto for a pair of Top 30 prospects, either.  Rather, I think he'll trade one of the pricey arms nearing free agency, acquire an established-yet-not-sexy bat to play LF for a year or two max, and find a third team that's has a replacement for that bat and a want for two to three prospects to build depth and shed payroll.

Something like this, for instance:

  • The New York Yankees acquire RHP Mat Latos from the Cincinnati Reds
  • The Cincinnati Reds acquire OF Matt Joyce and RHP Alex Colome from the Tampa Bay Rays
  • The Tampa Bay Rays acquire C Gary Sanchez from the New York Yankees
The Yankees, who recently stated they wouldn't be after the top FA pitchers this Winter, get a top starting pitcher to help fill the void left by the potentially retiring Hiroki Kuroda, free agent Brandon McCarthy, the banged up C.C. Sabathia, the injured Ivan Nova, and the frequently injured Michael Pineda, and they would stand to get a Top 35 pick should Latos be extended a QO after the season and decline it.  Sanchez is a decent loss, but Brian McCann and his $100 million contract are standing in his way at the catching position.

The Rays would get the Yankees top hitting prospect in Sanchez, a catching prospect near to the majors that would stand to bolster the .524 OPS they received from their catchers in 2014.  They'd also shed nearly $5 million in salary by trading Joyce, who may be considered surplus to a pinched payroll that already has David DeJesus, Desmond Jennings, and Wil Myers as projected outfielders.  Considering they've lost David Price, Joe Maddon, and Andrew Friedman in the last year, they'd potentially be willing to shed another established player for a prospect of Sanchez's ilk, even if it meant Colome - a bright young arm coming off a 50 game substance abuse suspension ranked as the number 5 prospect in their system- was part of the deal, too.

And the Reds?  They get Joyce for LF, a lefty bat who mauls RHP with a career OBP over .340 who will make roughly $5 million in 2015 in his second to last year of arbitration, a player at age 30 who provides a piece to help the club in 2015 as a complement to Chris Heisey without blocking Winker long-term.  They'd also get Colome, a prospect roughly equivalent in value to the Top 35 pick the Reds would no longer stand to gain by keeping Latos and extending him a QO.  In the process, they'd also save about $3.5 million in salary difference, keeping the payroll in manageable territory like Walt's on record as requiring.

If that happens exactly, each of you owes me a beer.  If something similar happens, no beer, just promise to not act like you're at all surprised.

How the Yankees can fix Monument Park

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I acknowledge that the ideal Monument Park visit is entirely a matter of personal preference, but I believe Yankee Stadium III would need a major renovation to truly make their current Monument Park a worthwhile experience.

I was raised in Yankee Stadium II, with the renovations of the '70s a distant memory and the glow of those '90s postseason runs still on the horizon. For me, Monument Park involved a long walk past the retired numbers and toward the monuments, and a slow exit through the many plaques. It was a space to pass through and maybe catch a BP home run.

For my father, the monuments belong in the outfield. They are things to be walked by as you exit the Stadium through the center field gate. For the record, I think that would be cool, too, but not so much that I'm going to waste too much effort dreaming that the Yankees' brass are likely to bring this back.

I don't know anyone who likes Monument Park's current home beneath the monument to sports capitalism known as the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar. There are a host of problems. The cave-like atmosphere. The giant floating George head. These are problems I accept as forever problems, and no amount of wishing will ever fix these problems. But there is still one problem the Yankees can solve; Monument Park is too cramped and the solution is to take out the plaques.

I'm already on the record that the Yankees should retire fewer numbers and hang more plaques. Hank Bauer, Willie Randolph, Bernie Williams, Hideki Matsui. Heck, I'm all for Mel Stottlemyre Day and Shane Spencer Day. Why not? Have a day, cheer for them in the pre-game and watch a few highlights. And then hang up a plaque that says a few nice things about the guy.

But instead of hanging the plaque in Monument Dungeon, the Yankees should hang their plaques all around Yankee Stadium. Hang them in the Concourses and hang them above the hundreds of concession stands and hang them in the exit ramps so you have something to read while 50,000 people shuffle out of the Stadium singing "New York, New York." I would put a replica of each plaque onto each level so that a walk around the Stadium serves as a walk through Monument Park. While we're at it, let's take the one well-executed idea of the Great Hall–those larger than life banners of Yankee legends–and hang banners or pictures around the Stadium. Give us championship swings and perfect games at every section.

When the Steinbrenners built Yankee Stadium III, they sold it to us, the fans, as a celebration of the Yankees' rich tradition. The exterior of the building is modeled on that history, but to date, the interior only celebrates free market enterprise and the Steinbrenners' ability to hock every square inch of the outfield walls. It wouldn't take too much work to fix that.

Alfonso Soriano retires from baseball

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Soriano never lived up to the huge contract he signed with the Cubs prior to the 2007 season, but when he was at his peak, few players matched his combination of speed and power.

Alfonso Soriano announced his retirement from baseball in a radio interview with Hector Gomez of Z101 in the Dominican Republic on Tuesday.

The 38-year-old spent 16 seasons with the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs, hitting .270/.319/.500 with 412 home runs in more than 8,000 plate appearances. The Dominican native finished his career where it started -- in the Bronx -- and struggled through his worst offensive season since 2000 before being released in July.

"I've lost the love and passion to play the game," Soriano said during the radio interview (via the Associated Press). "Right now, my family is the most important thing."

Soriano began his big league career as an out-of-position second baseman whose bat was a fixture in the Yankees lineup. He was routinely below average in the field, but Soriano made up for his defensive deficiencies at the plate, hitting .287/.326/.506 with 95 home runs in his first three full seasons. The Yankees eventually flipped him to the Rangers in the deal that brought Alex Rodriguez to New York.

After spending two seasons in Texas, Soriano wound up with the Nationals, and it was in the nation's capital where he put up his best overall campaign. Soriano set single-season career highs in home runs (46), on-base percentage (.351) and OPS+ (135), and stole 41 bases to boot. In addition, Soriano, who was moved to the outfield that year, had easily his best defensive season, finishing 16 runs above average. He parlayed that performance, which came in the lone contract year of his career, into an eight-year, $136 million deal with the Cubs.

Though he never lived up to the money in Chicago, the Cubs did reach the postseason in each of Soriano's first two years with the team. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Soriano's defense took a huge step backward, and the seven-time All-Star began to regress offensively, as well. From 2009 through 2013, when he was dealt to the Yankees, Soriano hit just .253/.308/.477, down from the .283/.330/.520 line he managed in his first eight seasons in the majors. During that time, Soriano hit the ninth-most homers and stole the fourth-most bases of any player in the league, according to Baseball-Reference.

In short, Soriano was never much of a defender and getting on base wasn't his strong suit, but when he was at his peak, his combination of speed and power were virtually unmatched. And for that, Soriano will always have a special place in MLB history.

Around the Empire: New York Yankee News - 11/5/2014

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The Yankees have found a way to outspend others, Headley is the best third base option, A-Rod in the news again.

FanGraphs | Kiley McDaniel: The Yankees have found another way to to outspend other teams with minor league free agent signings.

MLB.com | Austin Laymance: Former Yankees lefty Brad Halsey passed away suddenly at age 33. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family.

MLB Daily Dish | Jasper Scherer: Chase Headley isn't elite, but he's the best and most realistic option for third base in 2015.

NoMaas | SJK: A look at Hal Steinbrenner's fickleness regarding team payroll.

ESPN NY | Wallace Matthews: Court documents show that Alex Rodriguez paid his cousin Yuri nearly $1 million in exchange for silence during his PED use.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Hiroki Kuroda

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Though he'll turn 40 in February, Hiroki Kuroda remains a rock steady rotation option with a history of accepting one-year deals.

2014 Statistics: 32 GS, 199.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.5 fWAR, 4.17 K:BB rate

2015 Age: 40

Position: Starting pitcher

If you look up the word "solid" in a Webster's dictionary, you might find a picture of Hiroki Kuroda next to it - that is, if the particular copy you're using happens to belong to some weirdo who cuts out photos of baseball players and pastes them in his dictionary. But in this instance, your oddball friend would be dead on. Throughout his three seasons in pinstripes, Kuroda has been the one starting pitcher Joe Girardi has relied on to take the mound every fifth day and deliver better-than-average results just about every time. As a Yankee, Kuroda has completed six or more innings of work in 72 of 97 starts, while boasting an ERA- of 84 and a WHIP of 1.15. Since 2012, he's led New York pitchers (min. 200 innings) not only in those categories, but also in fWAR (11.0), innings pitched (620), walks-per-nine (1.87) and batting average against (.246).

Even after finishing his age 39 season, Kuroda hasn't lost much - if anything - stuff-wise. While he uses his fastball less often than he did several years ago, his average velocity still sits at 91.1, only about a mile per hour less than in 2009. Kuroda's swinging strike rate in 2014 was 9.9 percent, and he forced hitters to chase 33.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. Both numbers were right around his career norm thanks mostly to mid-to-high eighties splitter that serves as a tricky go-to out pitch. Kuroda's apt at forcing bad contact, which helps keep balls in the infield (59.9 percent of balls in play in 2014 were grounders or pop ups) and in the ballpark (0.90 HR/9), skills that can't be overlooked for a right-hander pitching at Yankee Stadium. With no red flag health marks on his ledger, there's no reason to believe he can't be as effective at 40 as he was at 39.

Kuroda is a free agent for the fifth time in his MLB career after completing his third consecutive one-year deal with the Yankees, which was worth $16 million. He's spent a lot of time pondering retirement or a return to Japanese baseball over the past few years, but if he does remain stateside, the cost of re-upping him would likely be around the same. The Yankees will be tempted this winter by flashier free agent arms, namely those belonging to Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, but Kuroda's willingness to work on one year deals shouldn't be ignored. The financial commitment required to keep him in the fold would be only a fraction of what Lester and Scherzer will command.

On Monday the odds of Kuroda returning to New York next year took a resounding blow when the Yankees declined to extend him a $15.3 million qualifying offer. That move could have one of several meanings. The team might hope to sign Kuroda for less than the QO, though after putting up a season statistically similar to his last few, it's hard to imagine that he'd be interested in a pay cut. The Yankees could already be aware of Kuroda's preference to not pitch in the majors next year, but if that we're the case they'd probably go through the motions of offering the QO to ensure draft pick compensation if he changes his mind and signs elsewhere. So the most likely scenario is that the Yankees have simply decided to thank Kuroda for his outstanding service and move on.

Ultimately the verdict the Yankees reach on Kuroda is not so much a referendum on him as it is one on how they view their pitching needs. If they're confident in the structural soundness of Masahiro Tanaka's elbow and in Michael Pineda's ability to finally throw a full season, then that's a pretty formidable one-two punch right there. If Tanaka and Pineda are healthy, then a sturdy number three like Kuroda is precisely what's needed to fill out the rotation ahead of question marks like CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Shane Greene (although Brandon McCarthy could fill that role, too). But if the Yankees aren't solid on Tanaka and Pineda up top, they may eschew Kuroda and open the Steinbrenner vault for a new ace in Lester or Scherzer.

Red Sox should sign free agent James Shields

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The Red Sox have a few different options on who to pursue for their rotation, but James Shields makes the most sense.

The Red Sox have a lot of money to spend this winter, and a lot of areas of need. These types of situations tend to lead to a lot of disagreement. At this point, the only thing everyone agrees on is that the team needs to address it’s starting rotation, specifically at the top. While you’ll hear them connected to mid rotation types like Jason Hammel and Brandon McCarthy, they don’t help here. In free agency, it comes down to three guys: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields. Assuming you read those big black words at the top of this page, you know who I’m advocating for.

Before we get into why Shields is a good fit for the Red Sox, though, we should take a quick look at the other two candidates, as they’re clearly nothing to sneeze at. We all know Lester and how good he can be. He’s coming off the best year of his career in 2014, and it looks like he’s entering an elite portion of his career. His strikeout rate reached peaks it’s never reached before, and he’s shown time and time again that he can pitch well on the big stage. He also won’t cost a draft pick. However, signing him to a six or seven year deal assuming he can keep up his career-best performance is scary. Specifically, was this spike in K-rate a one-year thing or will he pitch like that for the next few years? Some team may be very happy with the result of gambling on that, but the Red Sox have a lot of holes to fill to spend that much money on such a risk.

453320626.0.0.jpgPhoto Credit: Erza Shaw

Scherzer is the best starting pitcher on the market, even better than Lester. He’s your prototypical rotation ace, racking up more than a strikeout an inning like it’s nothing and limiting his walks. It’s actually somewhat surprising he hasn’t been linked to Boston more. With that type of performance comes with huge money, though. He’ll be the most expensive free agent this winter, and it may not be particularly close. Unlike Lester, though, he’s a pure power pitcher and those kind of guys seem to age much less gracefully than pitchers like Lester and Shields. There may be a couple years of elite pitching, but his decline is more likely to be a steep collapse rather than a gradual crawl towards doom. 

Now, we get to the man of the hour (or like, 5 minutes. I really hope this won’t take an hour to read). Unlike the guys above, Shields isn’t going to take a six or seven year commitment. It’s possible he can be had on a four-year deal, and the most likely scenario is a five-year one. Of course, that doesn’t happen without some weaknesses. Most obvious is that he is the oldest in the trio, just finishing up his age-32 campaign. On top of that, he’s watched his K-rate and FIP both get worse for the second consecutive year. And despite his "Big Game James" nickname, he’s also struggled mightily in the postseason. 

Although those aspects of his game may be the focus for some, there are still plenty of great things about the right-hander. For one thing, Shields is the very definition of a workhorse. If your ideal top-of-the-rotation starter is someone who will automatically take the ball every five days, this is your guy. He’s made at least 33 starts and thrown at least 200 innings every year since 2008, and just Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander have thrown more frames in that span. Stability like that is very valuable, especially if they decide to compliment him with someone a bit more injury-prone on the trade market (more on that in a bit).

It’s not just Shields’ consistent presence on the mound, though. Not only does he always make his starts, but he’s been productive, too. Going back to the start of 2011, he's been one of the better pitchers in the game. In fact, he has the 20th best ERA in that time, just .01 points behind guys like David Price and Zack Greinke. If park-neutral stats are more your thing, he’s even better, ranking 15th in ERA- in that same span.

It’s not just the four-year span, though. Shields was quite good in 2014 as well. He put up a 3.21 ERA (83 ERA-), which was just three spots behind Scherzer in the standings, and his ERA- was a top-25 mark in the game, and just two points worse than the former Tiger. Not to mention the fact that he was the best pitcher on a team that went to the World Series.

The big righty also walked fewer batters than he has in quite some time. His 4.7 percent walk-rate was a considerable drop from his 7.2 percent mark in 2013, and his lowest since 2008. While it was tough to see Shields’ K-rate to drop below 20 percent, his improved control and command made up for that.

It wasn’t just the walks, either. Shields was able to work around his strikeout decline in other ways as well. For one thing, he attacked the zone more often, limiting his pitch count and relying more on sequencing. This led to opponents chasing his pitches out of the zone more often than they ever had before, and making contact with those pitches more often than ever. While you generally want to avoid contact, allowing it on pitches outside of the zone rarely results in too much damage. This helped him get his ground ball rate back up after it took a tumble in 2013. It also played a role in him having his fourth straight year with a sub-.300 BABIP. The Red Sox defense should be good enough to help keep that streak alive.

There are plenty of reasons for Boston to sign one of Lester or Scherzer, and I couldn’t possibly be mad if they did. However, with all of the (likely expensive) holes they are going to address this winter, going with the more cost effective ace on the market is the smart move. They can compliment him atop the rotation on the trade market, dealing for someone like Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto. If they went with Lester or Scherzer, they may have to decide between one of those guys and Pablo Sandoval or Chase Headley. With Shields, they can afford one of the pitchers and one of the third baseman without much of an issue, and without needing to trade someone like Yoenis Cespedes. For something like five-years, $90-100 million, James Shields would be a great addition to the Red Sox.

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