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Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Jason Hammel

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Is Jason Hammel the Yankees' Plan B if they are unable to retain Brandon McCarthy?

2014 Statistics: 30 G, 176 1/3 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.1 WAR

2015 Age: 32

Position: Right-handed starting pitcher

Hey, remember Jason Hammel? The guy, who with Jeff Samardzija, made baseball headlines when the Oakland Athletics traded for them, rocking the baseball world? Well, that move, (along with Jon Lester) was supposed to take Oakland to the top, but it didn't exactly work out that way. Hammel's overall numbers with the Cubs and A's were very good as he logged in 176 innings to go along with a 3.47 ERA. And at age 32, he could very well be looking at a three year deal.

Recently, the Yankees have been said to have some interest in Hammel, probably as a fallback option if they don't sign Brandon McCarthy. I see him going to an NL team or perhaps even a team like the Twins. As always, pitching is key and Hammel would be a very solid number three with some of the question marks the Yankees will have in the rotation. Will Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda remain healthy? What will CC Sabathia bring to the table, and will Shane Greene continue to shine? The Yankees would have had to miss out on a lot of valuable arms for them to look into Hammel, although Brian Cashman was said to have been interested in Hammel and Samardzija until the A's came in with a better offer.

Hammel isn't a slouch and would keep this team in every game for the most part. The Yankees would much rather retain Brandon McCarthy and even another year of Hiroki Kuroda, but bringing Hammel on board wouldn't be a move to roll your eyes at. Then again, Hammel's numbers back in the AL with the A's were not quite as strong, as he posted a 4.26 ERA and 5.10 FIP, which will for sure hurt his free agent value a bit moving forward. Additionally, that 3.1 WAR he posted in 2014? All of that came with the Cubs; he was exactly replacement-level in Oakland.

Look for the Yankees to look to retain McCarthy and erase any thoughts of acquiring Hammel's services. While it isn't likely the Yankees would go after Hammel, failing to come to an agreement with McCarthy would definitely increase the chance they become even more serious in Hammel.


Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/14/2014

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Yankees are mystery, Aaron Judge continues to hit, New York shouldn't give Robertson the big payday, and A-Rod should not be happy with his diminishing role

New York Post | Joel Sherman: On paper the Yankees should have been at good, run differential says they should have been terrible, yet they won enough games to be just okay. With so much contradiction, who are the real Yankees?

New York Post | Ken Davidoff: Aaron Judge has done a good job during his stint in the Arizona Fall League.

ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews:David Robertson has done a lot of good during his tenure in pinstripes, while some team may be willing to pay him "Papelbon Money", it should not be the Yankees.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: With the heavy pursuit of more viable third baseman, the Yankees are gradually trying to lessen A-Rod's role on the team. Rodriguez likely is not going to like it but that is exactly what Cashman wants.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Andrew Miller

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Could Miller fill a void if David Robertson leaves for another team?

2014 Statistics: 2.02 ERA, 62.1 IP, 1.51 FIP, 14.87 K/9, 2.3 WAR

2015 Age: Turns 30 on May 21st

Position: Left-handed relief pitcher

Andrew Miller turned in the best season of his career in 2014, splitting time between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles. The left-hander was dominant out of the bullpen with an ERA just over 2.00 in over 60 innings. The good news about Miller is that he is far from a LOOGY despite throwing with his left-hand. He pitched 10 more innings against right-handed batters in 2014, and he managed to hold them to a lower batting average against than lefties. Righties only batted .141 against Miller while lefties batted .161. That kind of dominance against both handedness of batters makes Miller a dangerous weapon out of any bullpen.

The strikeout numbers are also very impressive for Miller, striking out nearly 15 batters per nine innings in 2014. The Yankees have enjoyed those kind of gaudy strikeout numbers from Dellin Betances and David Robertson in their bullpen and Miller very much falls right in with that kind of ability. It is really only over the course of the last three seasons that Miller has found the kind of success that is making him a hot commodity on the free agent market this offseason. With relievers being notoriously volatile, have we seen enough of him being dominant to really commit to him for multiple years at a high cost?

Since he was traded to Baltimore in the middle of the season, Miller doesn't require draft compensation from whichever team brings him in this winter. That's good for a team looking to hold onto their picks next June, and good for Miller who will likely receive more money as a result of his high demand. It was reported on Thursday that 22 of 30 teams expressed some interest in Miller. After watching bullpen after bullpen crumble in the postseason, that shouldn't really come as a surprise to anyone. It's the same reason why David Robertson will get top dollar for his services from a team that may or may not be the Yankees.

It wouldn't really be prudent for the Yankees to bring in Miller on top of bringing back Robertson, if they get even one of them at all. It's possible that the team could soften the blow of another team giving Robertson a huge contract by signing Miller, who doesn't come with the closer price tag that Robertson will likely require. Miller could work the eighth or ninth innings in a situation where the Yankees don't have Robertson, depending on how they employ Dellin Betances. However, Miller is said to be seeking a deal in the four-year range worth a ton of money. He's certainly not going to be a bargain by any means.

The Yankees have done a good job of developing relievers on their own, so they may be reluctant to pursue one in free agency that will come at a high cost that isn't named David Robertson. It seems especially unnecessary when considering the state of the infield and starting rotation. That probably means that Miller will find his way to another team before the 2015 season. Whichever team it is will be getting themselves a pretty good weapon for the late innings in Miller.

PSA Comments of the Day 11/14/14: Mute City

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The Yankees, after making a couple of moves here and there, are now silent. I'm sure Cashman is on the case. It was also kinda quiet in the comments section yesterday. Pitchers and catchers report in 97 days.

Yesterday we had a lot of COTD and GOTD awards to give out. Today is the opposite of yesterday.

Comments of the Day

This comment from Harlan is not only the COTD award winner, but it is the HMM award winner as well. It really gets right down to the nitty gritty of it all, especially the part about what was wrong with the 2014 season.

GIF of the Day

Yesterday was a rough night for the Bills fandom of PSA. It was nice of noonoo to cheer us up with GIFs of Pabu. Oh Bills...

Honorable Mod Mention

See the Comments of the Day section.

Fun Questions
  • Give us your best and your worst Brian Cashman move?
  • When you were younger (or now that you're an adult), did you prefer the crust on or off on your sandwiches? (You will be judged according for how you answer this question.
Song of the Day

Mute City from Mario Kart 8

I don't think you have any idea how happy this song makes me. As always, link us your song of the day!

Well non-fantasy football kinda sucks for me right now. In other words, that time of year when rooting for the Bills makes me really appreciate rooting for the Yankees. There must be a balance. This is why the Yankees need to improve. Does anyone else feel that way about their other sports teams, beside the Yankees? In any case, the Yankees are currently driving along in Mute City right now. Not much going on right now, but the day is still young.

Show Me Your Moves

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Melky Cabrera

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A familiar face is available for 2015. Could he bring some needed pop to the Yankees batting order?

2014 Statistics: 621 PA, .301/.351/.458, 16 HR, 125 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR

2015 Age: turns 31 8/11

Position: Switch-hitting corner outfielder

It's been a long, winding road for former Yankees farmhand Melky Cabrera. Since being traded for Yankees pariah Javier Vazquez, Cabrera has: nearly won a batting title, been suspended for PEDs and dealt with a frightening spinal tumor. After those ups and downs, Cabrera managed to emerge out on the other side and himself a very nice season in 2014.

Cabrera has established himself as not much of an outfielder, posting a negative UZR every season since 2009. But his natural hitting ability shined through again in 2014 as he batted above .300 with sufficient enough pop for a corner outfielder. Cabrera doesn't walk much, but his sweet stroke has proven to be enough to stay as a plus bat most years. His 2013 was a lost campaign, but chalking that up to his spinal issues would be more than reasonable.

The thought of a bat-first, switch-hitting non-fielder with Carlos Beltran still on the roster might seem redundant, but an important distinction is that Melky can actually physically play the field and will only be 30 when the 2015 season begins. There's not a lot of options in free agency that are both good hitters and non pure designated hitters, and Cabrera can be counted as one of them. Steamer projects him as having a 118 wRC+ next year, which would have made him a titan in last year's Yankee lineup.

Cabrera does have draft pick compensation attached, so that is a consideration. Early predictions have him getting as many as five years in a deal, so there might not be much of a discount for his PED issues or down 2013 season. The tight confines of right field in Yankee Stadium could help limit his range issues out in right field, and the Yankees could obviously use his bat. I would not be surprised if the Yankees made contact in some capacity with Cabrera and his people during the offseason.

My gut tells me that the Yankees still see Beltran as their de facto outfielder and that will be a sticking point in deciding to commit to Cabrera or any other top-tier outfielder free agent. That might seem like a silly thing to do when the player is near 40 and looked like he was made of stone last year, but giving up on a guy less than halfway through a deal would be pretty surprising and wasteful. But if the Yankees miss out on upgrades in the infield, forcing the DH tag on Beltran and signing Cabrera would be one of the better opportunities to give the offense a jolt.

Time will tell if the market for Cabrera stays sane enough to give the Yankees some interest. If Cabrera starts ascending towards the 5 year/70-80 million mark, I don't think the Yankees pay much mind. It's hard to tell what the Yankees plan is these days though, so any signing wouldn't be a true shock.

New Mets hitting coach Kevin Long is not afraid of Citi Field

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The recently hired Mets hitting coach joined SiriusXM MLB Network Radio to discuss his new role in Queens.

New Mets hitting coach Kevin Long recently joined SiriusXM MLB Network Radio to to discuss the end of his time with the Yankees and the challenges associated with his new job with the Mets. According to Matt Ehalt of the Record, Long's hope is that the Mets can stay positive and not worry about the difficulties of hitting in a larger ballpark like Citi Field.

"We're going to have to change the culture a little bit. We're going to have to find ways to score runs in maybe a different manner. But, I think, the main thing is to believe that a line-drive swing and a good line-drive swing can work in any ballpark against any pitcher in any conditions. So we'll start there and see how that goes."

Long is saying the right things at this point, but we have to wait to see whether they actually translate to success with the Mets' lineup. The new dimensions at Citi Field will also play a part in the hitter success. While the final dimensions have not been revealed (they're scheduled to be announced on Saturday), we know the right field fence will be shorter, potentially helping left-handed hitters like Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson. Long acknowledges that Citi Field is different from Yankee Stadium but does not believe that it should change his strategy.

"I understand it's going to be difficult. I understand that the ballpark does play a little bit longer than other ballparks we're going to go to, but we'll just stay positive and stay at it and try to hit line drives."

Pinstripe Alley's 2014 Yankees and MLB predictions results

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"I TOLD you those PSA simpletons knew nothing! I had Royals all the way!" - Someone

For the past couple years in spring training, I've asked the Pinstripe Alley staff to offer some predictions about the upcoming season. I do this while fully acknowledging that per the Book of Sterling, "Lo I say to you these words: you can't predict baseball, Suzyn." Nonetheless, it's still entertaining to get in on the fun, even if we have very little idea about what will happen in the upcoming season. Well, the 2014 campaign has come and gone, the awards have been issued, and we can finally look back on our foolishness. (God, which dingus had Nick Castellanos as Rookie of the Year?)

So who had the best 2014 predictions? For the standings, I awarded 1 point for each correct slot, for the numerical predictions, I gave 2 points for the closest guess and 3 for exactly right. Correct guesses on player awards and leaders received 2 points.

1) 2014 AL standings:

AL East1st2nd3rd4th5th
TanyaYankeesRaysRed SoxOriolesBlue Jays
JasonRed SoxYankeesRaysOriolesBlue Jays
AndrewRaysYankeesRed SoxOriolesBlue Jays
CaitlinRed SoxYankeesRaysOriolesBlue Jays
GregYankeesRaysOriolesRed SoxBlue Jays
ProvenzanoRed SoxRaysYankeesBlue JaysOrioles
MichaelRed SoxYankeesRaysOriolesBlue Jays
FerenchickYankeesRed SoxRaysOriolesBlue Jays
JesseRed SoxRaysYankeesOriolesBlue Jays
HarlanRaysYankeesRed SoxOriolesBlue Jays
JohnRaysYankeesRed SoxOriolesBlue Jays
DerekRed SoxRaysYankeesOriolesBlue Jays
ScottRed SoxYankeesRaysOriolesBlue Jays
ChrisRaysRed SoxYankeesBlue JaysOrioles
JimYankeesRed SoxRaysOriolesBlue Jays
ConsensusRed SoxYankeesRaysOriolesBlue Jays
ResultsOriolesYankeesBlue JaysRaysRed Sox
AL Central1st2nd3rd4th5th
TanyaTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
JasonTigersRoyalsIndiansTwinsWhite Sox
AndrewTigersRoyalsTwinsIndiansWhite Sox
CaitlinTigersIndiansRoyalsWhite SoxTwins
GregRoyalsTigersIndiansTwinsWhite Sox
ProvenzanoTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
MichaelTigersRoyalsIndiansTwinsWhite Sox
FerenchickTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
JesseTigersIndiansRoyalsTwinsWhite Sox
HarlanTigersRoyalsIndiansTwinsWhite Sox
JohnTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
DerekTigersIndiansRoyalsWhite SoxTwins
ScottTigersIndiansRoyalsTwinsWhite Sox
ChrisTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
JimTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
ConsensusTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
ResultsTigersRoyalsIndiansWhite SoxTwins
AL West1st2nd3rd4th5th
TanyaA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
JasonA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
AndrewA'sAngelsRangersMarinersAstros
CaitlinA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
GregA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
ProvenzanoA'sAngelsRangersMarinersAstros
MichaelRangersA'sMarinersAngelsAstros
FerenchickRangersA'sAngelsMarinersAstros
JesseA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
HarlanRangersAngelsA'sMarinersAstros
JohnA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
DerekA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
ScottA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
ChrisA'sAngelsRangersMarinersAstros
JimA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
ConsensusA'sRangersAngelsMarinersAstros
ResultsAngelsA'sMarinersAstrosRangers

2) 2014 NL standings

NL East1st2nd3rd4th5th
TanyaNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
JasonBravesNationalsPhilliesMetsMarlins
AndrewNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
CaitlinNationalsBravesPhilliesMetsMarlins
GregNationalsBravesPhilliesMarlinsMets
ProvenzanoNationalsBravesPhilliesMetsMarlins
MichaelNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
FerenchickNationalsBravesPhilliesMetsMarlins
JesseNationalsBravesMetsMarlinsPhillies
HarlanNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
JohnNationalsBravesMarlinsPhilliesMets
DerekNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
ScottNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
ChrisNationalsBravesPhilliesMetsMarlins
JimNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
ConsensusNationalsBravesMetsPhilliesMarlins
ResultsNationalsBravesMetsMarlinsPhillies
NL Central1st2nd3rd4th5th
TanyaCardinalsRedsPiratesCubsBrewers
JasonCardinalsPiratesRedsCubsBrewers
AndrewCardinalsPiratesRedsCubsBrewers
CaitlinCardinalsPiratesRedsBrewersCubs
GregPiratesCardinalsRedsBrewersCubs
ProvenzanoCardinalsRedsPiratesBrewersCubs
MichaelCardinalsPiratesRedsBrewersCubs
FerenchickCardinalsRedsPiratesBrewersCubs
JesseCardinalsRedsPiratesCubsBrewers
HarlanRedsCardinalsBrewersPiratesCubs
JohnCardinalsPiratesRedsCubsBrewers
DerekCardinalsRedsPiratesBrewersCubs
ScottCardinalsPiratesRedsBrewersCubs
ChrisCardinalsPiratesRedsBrewersCubs
JimCardinalsRedsPiratesBrewersCubs
ConsensusCardinalsRedsPiratesBrewersCubs
ResultsCardinalsPiratesBrewersRedsCubs
NL West1st2nd3rd4th5th
TanyaDodgersDiamondbacksGiantsPadresRockies
JasonDodgersGiantsDiamondbacksPadresRockies
AndrewDodgersGiantsDiamondbacksRockiesPadres
CaitlinDodgersDiamondbacksPadresRockiesGiants
GregDodgersGiantsDiamondbacksRockiesPadres
ProvenzanoDodgersDiamondbacksPadresGiantsRockies
MichaelDodgersDiamondbacksPadresGiantsRockies
FerenchickDodgersGiantsDiamondbacksPadresRockies
JesseDodgersGiantsPadresDiamondbacksRockies
HarlanDodgersGiantsDiamondbacksPadresRockies
JohnDodgersDiamondbacksPadresRockiesGiants
DerekDodgersDiamondbacksPadresGiantsRockies
ScottDodgersGiantsDiamondbacksPadresRockies
ChrisDodgersGiantsPadresDiamondbacksRockies
JimDodgersGiantsPadresDiamondbacksRockies
ConsensusDodgersDiamondbacksGiantsPadresRockies
ResultsDodgersGiantsPadresRockiesDiamondbacks

3) Tanaka ERA, D-Rob Sv, McCann/Beltran HR, Gardner/Ellsbury SB, and Jeter G

NYY Misc.Tanaka ERAD-Rob SvMcCann HRBeltran HRGardner SBEllsbury SBJeter G
Tanya3.21423123365399
Jason3.153526212935120
Andrew3.563723303538125
Caitlin3.333427233847130
Greg3.164729314751131
Provenzano3.403530253545100
Michael3.513828353254115
Ferenchick3.494029203849120
Jesse3.704529224055110
Harlan3.28402426253795
John3.803223293442125
Derek3.203525253050120
Scott3.554226303045120
Chris3.09402324254089
Jim3.91382520313997
Average3.423927263445113
Results2.773923152139145

4) Yankee leaders: AVG, HR, ERA, and WAR

NYY leadersAVGHRERAWAR
TanyaJacoby EllsburyBrian McCannMasahiro TanakaJacoby Ellsbury
JasonCarlos BeltranBrian McCannHiroki KurodaJacoby Ellsbury
AndrewJacoby EllsburyCarlos BeltranIvan NovaJacoby Ellsbury
CaitlinJacoby EllsburyBrian McCannIvan NovaJacoby Ellsbury
GregBrian McCannCarlos BeltranIvan NovaJacoby Ellsbury
ProvenzanoJacoby EllsburyBrian McCannMasahiro TanakaJacoby Ellsbury
MichaelJacoby EllsburyCarlos BeltranIvan NovaJacoby Ellsbury
FerenchickJacoby EllsburyBrian McCannHiroki KurodaBrian McCann
JesseJacoby EllsburyBrian McCannIvan NovaJacoby Ellsbury
HarlanCarlos BeltranMark TeixeiraMasahiro TanakaJacoby Ellsbury
JohnDerek JeterCarlos BeltranIvan NovaHiroki Kuroda
DerekJacoby EllsburyBrian McCannMasahiro TanakaMasahiro Tanaka
ScottJacoby EllsburyCarlos BeltranIvan NovaJacoby Ellsbury
ChrisJacoby EllsburyCarlos BeltranMasahiro TanakaMasahiro Tanaka
JimCarlos BeltranAlfonso SorianoCC SabathiaBrian McCann
ConsensusJacoby EllsburyBrian McCannIvan NovaJacoby Ellsbury
ResultsJacoby Ellsbury (.271)Brian McCann (23)Hiroki Kuroda (3.71)Brett Gardner (4.0)

5) MLB leaders: AVG, HR, ERA, and WAR

MLB leadersAVGHRERAWAR
TanyaMiguel CabreraChris DavisClayton KershawMike Trout
JasonMike TroutMiguel CabreraJose FernandezMike Trout
AndrewJoe MauerMiguel CabreraClayton KershawMike Trout
CaitlinMiguel CabreraChris DavisClayton KershawMike Trout
GregMike TroutMiguel CabreraClayton KershawMike Trout
ProvenzanoMike TroutChris DavisClayton KershawMike Trout
MichaelMiguel CabreraGiancarlo StantonClayton KershawMike Trout
FerenchickMiguel CabreraChris DavisClayton KershawMike Trout
JesseMiguel CabreraMiguel CabreraClayton KershawMike Trout
HarlanJoey VottoGiancarlo StantonStephen StrasburgMike Trout
JohnMiguel CabreraPaul GoldschmidtClayton KershawMike Trout
DerekMiguel CabreraChris DavisClayton KershawMike Trout
ScottMiguel CabreraMiguel CabreraClayton KershawMike Trout
ChrisMiguel CabreraChris DavisClayton KershawMike Trout
JimMiguel CabreraMiguel CabreraClayton KershawMike Trout
ConsensusMiguel CabreraDavis-CabreraClayton KershawMike Trout
ResultsJose Altuve (.341)Nelson Cruz (40)Clayton Kershaw (1.77)Clayton Kershaw (8.0)

6) Most team wins & losses, first manager fired

MLB Misc.Most team winsMost team losses1st manager fired
TanyaCardinals (97)Astros (101)Ned Yost (KC)
JasonTigers (98)Astros (90)Mike Scioscia (LAA)
AndrewNationals (97)Astros (95)John Gibbons (TOR)
CaitlinTigers (97)Astros (102)Ron Gardenhire (MIN)
GregYankees (102)Astros (113)Ned Yost (KC)
ProvenzanoDodgers (99)Astros (97)Ryne Sandberg (PHI)
MichaelDodgers (97)Marlins (99)Mike Scioscia (LAA)
FerenchickDodgers (100)Marlins (101)Ned Yost (KC)
JesseCardinals (97)Astros (100)Ned Yost (KC)
HarlanNationals (97)Astros (103)John Gibbons (TOR)
JohnCardinals (96)Astros (108)Bruce Bochy (SF)
DerekNationals (95)Astros (96)John Gibbons (TOR)
ScottDodgers (96)Astros (100)John Gibbons (TOR)
ChrisDodgers (95)Astros (94)John Gibbons (TOR)
JimDodgers (96)Astros (100)Ryne Sandberg (PHI)
ConsensusDodgers (97)Astros (100)John Gibbons (TOR)
ResultsAngels (98)Diamondbacks (98)Bo Porter (HOU)

Tarp trap

7) MLB Awards

AL AwardsRookie of the YearCy Young AwardMVP
TanyaMasahiro TanakaDavid PriceMike Trout
JasonMasahiro TanakaChris SaleMike Trout
AndrewNick CastellanosYu DarvishMike Trout
CaitlinJose AbreuMax ScherzerMiguel Cabrera
GregMasahiro TanakaMasahiro TanakaMike Trout
ProvenzanoXander BogaertsChris SaleMike Trout
MichaelXander BogaertsFelix HernandezMike Trout
FerenchickMasahiro TanakaYu DarvishMike Trout
JesseXander BogaertsYu DarvishMiguel Cabrera
HarlanMasahiro TanakaYu DarvishMike Trout
JohnTaijuan WalkerYu DarvishMiguel Cabrera
DerekXander BogaertsFelix HernandezMiguel Cabrera
ScottMasahiro TanakaYu DarvishMike Trout
ChrisMasahiro TanakaFelix HernandezMike Trout
JimMasahiro TanakaYu DarvishMike Trout
ConsensusMasahiro TanakaYu DarvishMike Trout
ResultsJose AbreuCorey KluberMike Trout
NL AwardsRookie of the YearCy Young AwardMVP
TanyaJavier BaezJose FernandezYadier Molina
JasonOscar TavaresJose FernandezCarlos Gomez
AndrewChris OwingsClayton KershawBryce Harper
CaitlinOscar TavaresClayton KershawYadier Molina
GregJavier BaezClayton KershawAndrew McCutchen
ProvenzanoArchie Bradley
Jose FernandezBryce Harper
MichaelBilly Hamilton
Clayton KershawHanley Ramirez
FerenchickOscar TavaresClayton KershawHanley Ramirez
JesseJavier BaezClayton KershawBryce Harper
HarlanArchie BradleyStephen StrasburgJoey Votto
JohnArchie BradleyClayton KershawYadier Molina
DerekArchie BradleyClayton KershawAndrew McCutchen
ScottOscar TavaresClayton KershawBryce Harper
ChrisJavier BaezClayton KershawAndrew McCutchen
JimOscar Tavares
Stephen StrasburgBuster Posey
ConsensusOscar TavaresClayton KershawBryce Harper
ResultsJacob deGromClayton KershawClayton Kershaw

8. PLAYOFFS?!

(Hyphen means the vote was split.)

PlayoffsALWCNLWCALCSNLCSWSWS Champ
TanyaRays/RangersBraves/RedsYankees/RaysDodgers/CardinalsDodgers/YankeesDodgers
JasonYankees/RangersNationals/CardinalsRed Sox/TigersDodgers/NationalsDodgers/TigersTigers
AndrewYankees/AngelsBraves/GiantsYankees/A'sCardinals/NationalsNationals/A'sA's
CaitlinYankees/RangersBraves/PiratesYankees/TigersDodgers/CardinalsDodgers/TigersTigers
GregRays/TigersBraves/CardinalsYankees/A'sDodgers/PiratesPirates/YankeesYankees
ProvenzanoYankees/RaysBraves/RedsRed Sox/TigersDodgers/NationalsDodgers/TigersDodgers
MichaelYankees/A'sPirates/RedsYankees/Red SoxDodgers/NationalsDodgers/YankeesDodgers
FerenchickRed Sox/RaysReds/GiantsYankees/TigersDodgers/CardinalsDodgers/YankeesDodgers
JesseRays/YankeesGiants/BravesRed Sox/TigersCardinals/NationalsCardinals/TigersCardinals
HarlanYankees/AngelsCardinals/BrewersRangers/RaysDodgers/NationalsNationals/RaysRays
JohnYankees/ RangersBraves/PiratesYankees/A'sDodgers/CardinalsCardinals/YankeesYankees
DerekRays/YankeesBraves/RedsRed Sox/TigersCardinals/NationalsNationals/TigersNationals
ScottYankees/RangersBraves/GiantsYankees/TigersDodgers/NationalsDodgers/TigersTigers
ChrisA's/Red SoxGiants/BravesRays/TigersDodgers/NationalsDodgers/RaysDodgers
JimRed Sox/RangersBraves/RedsYankees/A'sDodgers/NationalsDodgers/YankeesDodgers
ConsensusYankees/Rays-RangersBraves/RedsYankees/TigersDodgers/NationalsDodgers/Yankees-TigersDodgers
ResultsRoyals/A'sGiants/PiratesRoyals/OriolesGiants/CardinalsGiants/RoyalsGiants

***

And now, the final tally for the staff...

Chris36
Ferenchick32
Michael27
Andrew26
Caitlin26
John25
Consensus25
Jim24
Jesse22
Tanya20
Derek20
Scott20
Provenzano19
Harlan17
Greg15
Jason14

Chris Mitchell is the winner! Your gift basket is in the mail as soon as we can arrange for one to be sent by the Captain.


Marlins and Giancarlo Stanton close to record contract

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The deal is believed to be worth an astounding $325 million over 13 years.

The Miami Marlins and star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton are close to signing the highest-paying contract in major league history, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Though there is no official word yet, the deal is believed to be for $325 million over 13 years. It is expected to include a no-trade clause, as well as an opt-out clause after an undisclosed number of years. The average value per year is $25 million.

This deal would break the previous record for total value of an MLB contract of $275 million set by Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees in 2007. However, Stanton would be making slightly less per year than Rodriguez.

It is clear that Stanton, who is still just 25 years old, is one of the best players in the game today. The outfielder finished second in the NL MVP voting behind Clayton Kershaw this year after hitting .288/.395/.555 with 37 home runs and 105 RBIs. If this contract is finalized, the Mets will face one of the most dangerous bats in the league 19 times a year for the foreseeable future.


A.J. Burnett, Pirates agree to generate more ground balls again

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Burnett takes less money to go back to a friendly place.

A.J. Burnett has kicked off the pitcher-signing dominoes by agreeing to a 1 year/$8.5 million contract with the Pirates, although I doubt he was considered the "first" domino.

It doesn't sound like other clubs were waiting for Burnett's domino to fall before moving on. It's doubtful there's any kind of chain reaction. Enough about dominoes.

Here's Dave Cameron's take on the deal. Dave's main claim is that Burnett is no longer the guy he was, but that doesn't matter much because the Pirates will be paying him to be the guy he is, not the guy he was. Why can't Burnett return to being the guy that he was, aside from aging and time travel and such? Look here:

GB%FIP-
Yankees 201149.20%115
Pirates 201256.90%93
Pirates 201356.50%77
Phillies 201450.90%112

This looks like two things. First, Burnett with the Pirates found a way to generate a consistently greater number of ground balls. Two, he performed much better while generating that higher rate of ground balls. You'd think that Burnett threw a higher rate of sinkers while with the Pirates. Not quite. Behold:

aj burnett usage chart

Burnett did indeed increase his sinker usage when he went to the Pirates, but he increased his sinker usage even more when he went to the Phillies. Maybe Burnett upped his sinker rate in an attempt to generate MORE ground balls to account for the hitter-friendly environs and worse team defense? Unfortunately, that didn't work out. The Pirates ranked 6th in DRS in 2014, while the Phillies ranked 25th. UZR sees the two teams as equally poor defensively, but I'm willing to give a pass because of the Pirates' extensive use of shifts. Some of the negative value of the Pirates' UZR lies with the outfield.

I'm not saying Burnett will be the 4-fWAR pitcher he was in 2013. That was a pretty high strikeout rate he had that year. Also, Burnett's walk rate jumped in 2014. That was due mainly to inducing a lower rate of swings outside the strike zone and throwing fewer first pitch strikes.; he didn't necessarily throw more out-of-the-zone pitches. Burnett's walk rate with the Pirates looks more like an outlier than the norm, but consider the following:

1) Burnett generated a very stable rate of ground balls with the Pirates

2) Burnett had a very stable usage pattern both years for the Pirates, a pattern that was different than any other point in his career

3) Burnett threw a stable rate of first pitch strikes with the Pirates, a rate higher than any other point in his career

4) Burnett had the lowest walk rate of his career with the Pirates since 2006

I'm willing to concede that the influence of the Pirates, whether it be their pitching coach, their analytics department, their stadium, their shifting strategy, Russell Martin, or a combination of all of them, was enough to squeeze out better performance from Burnett than the Yankees or Phillies were capable of getting.

Having said all of that, there is one red flag, something that was static with the Pirates but fell with the Phillies: Velocity.

aj burnett velocity chart

If there's any reason why Burnett couldn't return to form with the Pirates, this is it. This is probably the main reason why he wouldn't return to being a 4-fWAR pitcher. Nonetheless, if the Pirates don't get Russell Martin back, they still have Francisco Cervelli, who is known to be a good pitch framer. Given all the other factors, Burnett has a good shot at being a 2-3 fWAR pitcher for the Pirates, which is a pretty good investment for $8.5 million.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.

Kevin Ruprecht is an Editor of Beyond the Box Score. He also writes at Royals Review. You can follow him on Twitter at @KevinRuprecht.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/15/2014

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Andy wants A-Rod to come clean, Tyler Austin has a bone bruise, Cashman goes homeless for charity, and longtime super-fan passes away.

ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews:Andy Pettitte was one of the names in the infamous Mitchel Report--he owned up to what he did and was forgiven.  With A-Rod trying to regain some semblance of acceptance from the public, Andy has only one thing to say, "come clean."

Lohud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: Several days ago Yankees prospect Tyler Austin was involved in a terrible onfield collision.  Fortunately for him and the Yankee Universe the prognosis is good.

Yahoo.com | Jeff Macke: Brian Cashman has done a lot of things for charity over the years. This time he and others are going to be on the streets to raise awareness to a terrible situation that is all too real for countless men, women and children.

Wall Street Journal | Derek Kravitz: The Yankee fanbase loses one of its own with long time fan Bill Stimers aka "Bill the Baker" passing away.  Bill was in attendance for well over 4,000 Yankee home games and a eidetic-like recollection of every pitch that even The Boss took notice of.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Takashi Toritani

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Japanese shortstop Takashi Toritani is considering playing in the US next season. Should the Yankees be interested?

2014 Statistics (Japan): 644 PA, .313/.406/.415, 8 HR, 73 RBI, 10 SB

2015 Age: 33

Position: Shortstop

In a move that makes pretty clear his interest in joining MLB next season, Japanese shortstop Takashi Toritani has retained the services of super-agent Scott Boras. At 33, Toritani just completed his eleventh season with NPB's Hanshin Tigers. Over the past decade he's played in 1,444 consecutive games (a Japanese record), all at shortstop and without missing a single inning in the field. With his usual carnival barker flare, Boras has anointed Toritani "the Cal Ripken of Japan."

Despite his similar durability, Toritani isn't quite Ripken on the field. He's hit only 120 home runs in over 6,500 plate appearances for Hanshin. While his defensive range is considered above average and he's got a career fielding percentage of .986 and has made only nine errors in his last 288 games, there's some thought that his arm will make him a better fit at second base in the US. In this video he moves well to both sides, but getting the ball to first is occasionally a struggle.

There's also a lot to like about Toritani's game. With walk rates of 16.2 and 13.5 percent in 2013 and 2014 respectively, his plate discipline is top notch, and that's something the Yankees have sorely lacked the past two years. Toritani's .285/.372/.412 career triple slash is nothing to scoff at for a middle infielder, nor is the .820 OPS he posted this past season. He's notched ten or more steals in each of the past five seasons, showing some value on the base paths. Though his home park in Japan, Koshien Stadium, boasts hitter-friendly dimensions, too, it's possible Toritani would get some kind of power boost as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium. This World Baseball Classic home run would look just fine settling into the right field bleachers.

Toritani is used to playing - a lot - so it's understandable that he's not interested in making the trek to the US to be a reserve. While the dollar cost of bringing him in would be minimal, compared with other top shortstops on the market - Hanley Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera - he'd require a substantial commitment in terms of his role. Consecutive games streaks can be a double-edged sword. Sure, they show an innate ability to stay healthy and play through injury, but sometimes they go on longer than they should to the detriment of the team . As Ripken plodded through his late thirties, the Orioles could probably have benefited from him sitting out a few games. Joe Torre awkwardly catered to Hideki Matsui's shorter streak throughout his first three seasons as a Yankee.

By plugging Toritani in as their everyday - and that means every day - shortstop the Yankees would be asking a lot. Not only would he be moving halfway around the world and learning an entirely new set of pitchers, he'd also be tackling the daunting task of replacing Derek Jeter. But the Yankees are staring at a black hole at the shortstop position this off-season, and for the foreseeable future. They'd be remiss not to at least consider Toritani as a possible solution. He'd certainly be more interesting to watch than Stephen Drew or Brendan Ryan.

Why the Yankees should let Robertson walk

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The Yankees don't need no stinkin' closer

fun·gi·ble - ˈfənjəbəl - adjective

(of goods contracted for without an individual specimen being specified) able to replace or be replaced by another identical item; mutually interchangeable.

late 17th century: from medieval Latin fungibilis, from fungi‘perform, enjoy,’ with the same sense as fungi vice‘serve in place of.’

Propositions:

1) Because reliever performance fluctuates wildly from season to season, most relievers are fungible;

2) Because this is an era of pitcher dominance, the difference between an above average reliever and an elite reliever is smaller than it was 10-15 years ago, so modern relievers are more fungible than any point in the last 15 years;

3) Because this is an era of enhanced defense, both in terms of opportunity for elite defenders with weaker bats and for defensive shifts (non-standard defender deployment), strategy makes the relievers more fungible than they have been in recent history;

4) Because team control lasts for 6 seasons, and because most relievers are failed starters, team control almost always lasts through the prime years (27-30), and because the game is more flush with cash with which to reward free agents than at any point in history, relievers who reach free agency are more fungible than their younger counterparts.

By WAR, David Robertson is the 4th most valuable reliever in all of MLB since 2009. But he's 8th since 2012, 9th since 2013, and he was 14th in 2014. Anyone who has watched Houdini work knows that he has not regressed. He is definitely a pitcher at the peak of his power. But the rest of the league has passed him by.

Maybe we'll look back at this as the true golden age of the pitcher, maybe there are multiple relievers today who will be elected to the Hall of Fame, and maybe we'll look at the 60s or the Deadball 1910's as distant eras and precursors.

Look: maybe at some point, we'll be able to say with certainty, this was the golden era of the reliever, with Robertson and Kimbrel and Papelbon and Chapman. The way the 50s was the golden era of center fielders and the 90s was the golden era of shortstops, maybe we'll look back at this as a unique moment, when a collection of truly elite pitchers changed the way we think about pitching.

But more likely, we'll look back at this era as an era of transformation because teams finally gave up their loyalty to statistics and past success, and teams began giving their loyalty to predication and future success.

If you've been following the developments around baseball in the last ten years, you probably agree with me that pitching hasn't gotten better individually, but teams have gotten better at identifying what works to separate the okay pitchers from the very good ones. And if you agree with me, then you agree that David Robertson is not irreplaceable.

I agree with the Yankees' strategy the last several years: if you're going into the free agent pool, dive into the deep end. Don't just sign Sabathia and Burnett; sign Teixeira too, because in for a penny, then in for a pound. And if it's a weak class, and the 2014-2015 offseason is an especially weak class at all the positions the Yankees need, so much better to let your entirely fungible reliever leave for another team and collect all the sweet, sweet draft picks you can manage.

It's not about whether David Robertson is a great reliever. It's about whether a great reliever can make a difference to this team. This team needs a shortstop, not a shut down reliever.

An analysis of past and current Yankees contracts

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Long-term and mid-term contracts given by the Yankees have been disappointing in results. Will they proceed into the future with caution or continue to take on the risk with the hope of a World Series victory?

There’s been a lot of chatter throughout the baseball community as to whether or not commitments have been paying off for the teams that sign them. I used 2004 as my starting point and looked at all contracts since then and placed them into the following categories: Contracts 5 years or greater in length were considered long-term. Contracts 3-4 years in length were considered mid-term.

The information contained in the charts in this article is comprised of the following: Contract length, total dollar value of the contract, total contract WAR value, current WAR earned, contract years remaining, difference between contract WAR value and earned WAR value. The dollar amount used was $6.5 million per WAR.

Long-term

Player

Years

Amount

Contract War

Earned War

Years Remaining

Difference

CC Sabathia

7

$161 M

24.8

24.9

2

0.1

Masahiro Tanaka

7

$155 M

23.8

3.2

6

-20.6

*AJ Burnett

5

$82.5 M

12.7

5.4

0

-2.22

Mark Teixeira

8

$180 M

27.7

15.4

2

-12.3

Brian McCann

5

$85 M

13.1

2.3

4

-10.8

Jacoby Ellsbury

7

$153 M

23.5

3.6

6

-19.9

Alex Rodriguez

10

$275 M

42.3

20.1

3

-22.2

Robinson Cano

6

$55 M

8.5

29.5

0

21

*A.J. Burnett was traded after year three of the contract. His contract war calculation was changed to reflect his three year tenure.*

As you can see CC Sabathia and Robinson Cano have been the only long-term contracts so far to pay a return on ownership’s investment. Making it all the more perplexing that they didn't attempt to lock Cano up before he reached free agency. It appears that Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira will not hit positive returns by the end of their contracts, while A.J. Burnett failed to live up to his contract during his tenure already. On the other side of the coin it’s still too early to tell whether the Jacoby Ellsbury, Masahiro Tanaka and Brian McCann signings will pay off with so many years left on their contracts.

Mid-term

Player

Years

Amount

Contract War

Earned War

Years Remaining

Difference

Carlos Beltran

3

$45 M

6.9

-0.5

2

-7.4

Brett Gardner

4

$52 M

8

3.2

3

-4.8

*Derek Jeter

3

$51 M

7.8

4.3

0

-3.5

**Carl Pavano

4

$39.95M

6.1

1

0

-5.1

Jorge Posada

4

$52.4 M

8.1

3.1

0

-5

***Mariano Rivera

3

$45 M

6.9

4.4

0

-2.5

* Derek Jeter missed most of the 2013 season due to an ankle injury.*

**Carl Pavano only threw 145.2 innings due to multiple injuries. **

***Mariano Rivera missed almost a full season in 2012, due to a knee injury.***

Looking at the chart above both injuries and underperformance have hurt Brian Cashman’s mid-term signings. Brett Gardner netted a solid 3.2 WAR this season and appears headed towards over performance of his contract. Carlos Beltran on the other hand will have to dig himself out of the hole that was dug by his elbow injury this season and there’s a 50/50 chance that he will. Mariano almost certainly would have at least broken even if he hadn’t lost most of a season due to the knee injury.

After reviewing these statistics, it appears the Yankees have gotten very little bang for their buck since 2004, though given free agency's natural flaw of overpaying players for declines, that's not too surprising (the team's focus was on extracting value from the earlier contract years and dealing with sunk cost later). Taking the human element into account, you cannot fault ownership for taking care of legendary players such as Jeter and Posada as a thank you for all of their accomplishments. It’s easy to see why Hal Steinbrenner and the front office are leery of adding more long-term commitments to the payroll, making it all the more important that the farm system produce solid everyday players going forward.

All stats courtesy of FanGraphs.

What the Cervelli trade means down the line

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More moves to come?

Wednesday night saw fan favorite Francisco Cervelli traded away to the Pittsburgh Pirates in what seems to be becoming a Major League rule that all Yankee catchers end up with the Pirates. In exchange for the often injured, but talented catcher, the Yankees received back a lefty reliever by the name of Justin Wilson who had a great 2013 for the Pirates, but struggled a bit in 2014, and has complied a 2.99 ERA in two full seasons. While this isn't a flashy trade or a "game changer" it could effect a lot of other moves going down the line.

Now that Cervelli has been sent packing to play with Andrew McCutchen and the rest of the Bucs, it looks like John Ryan Murphy will be next in line to backup Brian McCann. Does this save Murphy from being traded this offseason? I believed that the Yankees were going to package Murphy with another pitcher to acquire Alexei Ramirez, but that may not be the case anymore. Does Murphy still find his way out of pinstripes before the offseason wraps up, and do the Yankees really want Austin Romine as their backup catcher? With Cervelli out of the picture now, it will be interesting to see how the Yankees catcher situation plays out. If McCann goes down with an injury, Murphy offers a good chance to log in a lot of innings behind the plate.

The addition of Wilson, a hard throwing lefty with a lot of upside (if he can keep his walks under control), seems to say that the Yankees are stockpiling bullpen options in the event David Robertson departs, which is certainly a possibility. The Yankees will also have four years of control over Wilson which is a plus. Wilson can be part of a young bullpen led by Dellin Betances featuring Adam Warren, Jacob Lindgren, Tyler Webb, and even Nick Rumbelow. Wilson can also throw multiple innings if needed and even start, although he is being looked at as a left-handed reliever.

The addition of Justin Wilson will most likely push David Huff out the door, but more significantly, it can push David Phelps out the door. Now that the Yankees seem to have a plan in the type of bullpen they want, and with plenty of young options arriving, Phelps might find himself as part of a trade for a bat. The Yankees are said to be interested in Howie Kendrick, and the Angels need a starter, so that might be a fit. Phelps is under control for four years, so that might intrigue the Angels as well.

I don't see the Yankees going after Andrew Miller, even if Robertson heads to another team, so the bullpen will be filled with young, affordable pitchers that will hopefully stay together for a few years. This small Francisco Cervelli trade can be the first domino that falls and leads into other big changes.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/16/2014

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Cashman speaks out about the farm, Greg Bird named MVP, Yankees Shortstop options, Yankees had big presence at Moncada showcase.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty:With all the issues the Big League club had in 2014, they did not trickle down to the farm system. Brian Cashman weighs in on how the minor league teams performed.

MLB.com | Jim Callis: Greg Bird is awesome; he was awesome in the regular season and was even more awesome during the Arizona Fall League. He was rewarded for his performance by being named Most Valuable Player for the league.

It's About the Money | Matt Bove: It goes without saying that the Yankees need a shortstop, the list of options that exist is long and varied.

Yankees Go Yard | Jacob Winters: We have written about Yoan Moncada before, since then he has been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball. He also held a showcase on the November 12th and the Yankees reportedly had a significant presence at the workout.



The best pitches of the Yankees 2014 season

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In a season of very good pitching, who had the most valuable pitches?

In the past couple of seasons, we've grown accustomed to excellent pitching coming out of both the Yankees' rotation and bullpen. In 2014, the team had an ERA- of 95 and a FIP- of 94 (and an xFIP- of 91, if that's your cup of tea), good for one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Every staff, in essence, is the sum of its parts; and one could also say that the sum of its parts are the sum of those parts. To put it simply, good staffs are made up of a good pitchers, and good pitchers are composed of good pitches. And to no one's surprise, this group has a bunch of really good pitches. I consider the best pitches to have the highest wValue/100 (min. 50 IP), so the best pitches on average. Let's take a look at them:

Fastball: Dellin Betances (1.48 wFB/C)

I was initially surprised by this one, and then not at all. When I first think of Dellin Betances I think of the dynamite curveball, but then I realized, "Oh yeah, that's right... he can also throw 100 mph". Betances threw his fastball 52.6% of the time, and had an average velocity of 96.7 mph, with a maximum of 100.4. Opposing hitters actually didn't hit horribly against it, a decent .229/.308/.329 (95 wRC+), but I would assume that's because this pitch was a set up for his curveball. But when he needed to, he could use the fastball to blow you away. In the best case study of this, here's his amazing appearance against Miguel Cabrera back on August 5th:

dellin_cabrera

One of the best hitters in baseball swung right threw it. And if the opposing hitter is thinking there is the possibility of a curveball coming, it makes 100 mph seem even faster.

Slider: Masahiro Tanaka (2.49 wSL/C)

I was also kind of surprised by this one. If you're playing a word association game, "Masahiro Tanaka" first evokes "splitter", and not slider, yet there it is atop the rankings. He actually utilized the pitch just a shade less than his splitter at 22% of the time, and it was certainly effective enough that he could mix it into counts to keep hitters off-balance. Opposing hitters hit a dreadful .174/.198/.261 (38 wRC+) against the pitch. Here's an example of how much break it has (from way back in Spring Training), courtesy of CBS Sports:

tanaka_slider

Splitter: Masahiro Tanaka (2.40 wSF/C)

This one doesn't need much explaining. Even before coming stateside many scouts believed Tanaka to have an 80-grade splitter, and I think we can all agree that that's nearly true. This one pitch induced an opposing batting line of 14 wRC+, and hitters also had a SwStr% of 27.4%. And as Jeff Sullivan showed way back in April, the beauty of this offering is that it can easily be thrown in the dirt,

tanaka_splitter_dirt

or on the lower half for maximum confusion:

tanaka_splitter_lower

And with pinpoint command, there's just no way to hit this pitch effectively.

Curveball: Dellin Betances (2.52 wCU/C)

I could tell you that opposing hitters hit .075/.122/.124 (-21 wRC+) against Dellin Betances' curveball and that it was arguably the best pitch this year, or I could just show you the .GIF's. Well, here they are:

dellin_cu1

(courtesy of FanGraphs)

dellin_cu2

(courtesy of the since-deceased PitcherGIFs)

dellin_cu2

(courtesy of MLBAM)

It may be a long offseason, but at least we can put these pitches on loop until we get a new batch come this spring.

A look at the Yankees farm system if George was still alive

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We hear a lot about how George Steinbrenner would act if he were still around. Let's take a closer look.

It's fine to wax nostalgic for the good old days when the Yankees ruled the universe. I know I certainly do. But let's try to keep our history in clear enough view that we can be grateful for the things we have.

Imagine if George was still around. The payroll would be $350M, and the farm system would be empty. But we'd have MOAR STARZ!!!

Larry Gura for Fran Healy

Fran Healy was a backup catcher. But someone had to work on the days that Thurman Munson needed off, so the Yankees got Healy. What they gave up for Healy was a 27-year-old starter who'd just pitched 150 innings for the first time in his career, to a league-average ERA.

Modern equivalent: probably trading a David Phelps for the Orioles' Caleb Joseph.

Steve Trout

Trout was a solid pitcher before his trade to the Yankees. A case of the yips (nine wild pitches and 37 walks in 46 innings), and that's what they call a career. As far as I know, Trout was one of the original "can't hack it in NY" players. Unfortunately, one of the guys that the Yankees gave up, Bob Tewksbury, went on to have a thirteen-year career highlighted by three 200-inning seasons and a third place finish in the 1992 Cy Young voting.

Modern equivalent: I most think of Trout as the precursor to Javier Vazquez. It's not the trade that was bad; Trout was a perfectly average pitcher for the first eight years of his career. The disaster was that he was such a headcase.

Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps

The immortal Seinfeld trade.

Modern equivalent: Buhner hit .279/.351/.514 in Triple-A at 22 years old. No. 2 prospect Gary Sanchez just hit .270/.338/.406 in Double-A. So imagine if the Yankees traded Sanchez this offseason for Adam LaRoche. Now imagine that they completed that trade in a season where their All-Star first baseman and his iconic mustache hit .311/.353/.462 and played 144 games. 1988 was a weird year.

Willie McGee for Bob Sykes

Willie McGee had an 18-year career, three gold gloves, a silver slugger and was the 1985 MVP. What he did not have was a single game in Yankee pinstripes. The guy the Yankees got for McGee, the immortal Bob Sykes, also never pitched well enough to get into a game for the big league club.

Modern equivalent: McGee was hitting .289/.357/.375 as a 20-year-old splitting the season between Single-A and Double-A with the Yankees. We can all agree those are not amazing numbers. But to trade a guy that young and to get absolutely nothing in return, it would be a bit like trading Ramon Flores to re-acquire Vidal Nuno.

Hideki Irabu

My issue here has less to do with the acquisition of Irabu (heck, I'm still ok with the signing of Igawa; it's not my money). But let's not forget what George called Irabu when the gentleman from Japan failed to cover first base during spring training.

Modern equivalent: Thank goodness George didn't live to see Carlos Beltran's regrettable moment in right field.

Mike Lowell for Ed Yarnell and others

Modern equivalent: You know the season that Aaron Judge just had in A-ball? Mike Lowell had a similar season in Triple-A and he played Gold Glove defense. Those 90s Yankees rolled on anyway, but I wonder what the team would have looked like with Lowell at third. Could he have turned the double play in Game 7 2001? 2003 would certainly have played out very differently, with him in pinstripes instead of in the opposite dugout.

Fred McGriff for Dale Murray

McGriff hit a ton of home runs, and made a not-quite-strong-enough case for the Hall of Fame. He was an 18-year-old in the Gulf Coast League when he was traded for a 33-year-old Dale Murray. Murray managed to post ERA+ of 87, 78, 34 over the final 100 innings of his career, to bring his career ERA+ down to exactly 100.

Modern equivalent: Who's your favorite Baby Bomber? Luis Torrens or Jorge Mateo? Well, the Yankees just traded him for Joba Chamberlain.

The Yankees outfield should see an improvement in 2015

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Can Carlos Beltran rebound to the 2013 version after a rough 2014?

With the offseason underway, Brian Cashman has already declared that, barring a trade, the outfield is set. To fill the vacancy left by free agent Ichiro Suzuki, the Yankees acted quickly to ink Chris Young to a one-year $2.5 million dollar deal to be the club’s fourth outfielder behind Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner.

Looking back at this past season, there was offensive disappointment everywhere and the outfield was no exception.

Player

Avg

HR

RBI

wOBA

ISO

wRC+

WAR

Brett Gardner

.256

17

58

.331

.166

110

3.2

Jacoby Ellsbury

.271

16

70

.327

.148

107

3.6

Carlos Beltran

.233

15

49

.310

.169

95

-0.5

Ichiro Suzuki

.284

1

22

.296

.056

86

0.4

Beltran went down with pain in his elbow on May 13th and further tests revealed that an old bone spur was the root cause. The thought at the time was, with a cortisone injection, that he would be able to play through the rest of the season. Unfortunately, the plan to delay the inevitable surgery was a big mistake in hindsight that bit him and the team the rest of the year. He returned to action on June 5th and just wasn’t able to perform at a high level the rest of the way, most likely due to continued discomfort.

Ichiro Suzuki was another disappointment, as his putrid offensive numbers show, which was unsurprising from a then 40 year-old slap hitter that the team desperately attempted to trade throughout 2014. Thankfully, Brett Gardner and newcomer Jacoby Ellsbury were able to provide the team with offensive contributions throughout the season as both put up very solid stat lines. In a lineup that lacked punch, Gardner broke out and hit a career-high 16 dingers, while Ellsbury hit the second-highest total of his career with 16 of his own.

Looking ahead to the 2015 season, Steamer projections on Fangraphs can give us an idea of what we can expect next year.

Player

Avg

HR

RBI

wOBA

ISO

wRC+

WAR

Brett Gardner

.254

12

58

.320

.134

102

3

Jacoby Ellsbury

.271

16

65

.329

.147

108

3.7

Carlos Beltran

.261

23

80

.335

.179

112

1.2

Chris Young

.228

13

44

.313

.171

97

0

Young will be an offensive upgrade over Ichiro in every category except for batting average, which will be a welcome site for this offensively-starved team. Returning to join him in the outfield mix are Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran for next season. The Steamer projections do show slight regression for Brett Gardner, but a healthy Beltran and Young’s better bat should be enough to provide much better output from the outfield next season. As always, the biggest question mark will be health as the starting three are no strangers to the disabled list.

The Yankees encountered a rough 2014 in the outfield, despite solid production from Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner.  With a healthy Beltran returning and Chris Young in the mix, offensive production should improve substantially in comparison to this past season. I would expect to see Young replace Beltran quite often late in games as Beltran is just a horrible defender with bad knees.

Yankees rumors: Re-signing David Robertson is a top priority

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Brian Cashman considers re-signing D-Rob a top priority, will let Chase Headley and Brandon McCarthy walk if the price is too high.

According to Bill Madden of the NY Daily News, Brian Cashman's top offseason priority is re-signing David Robertson. This really comes as no surprise, especially after a 2014 season where the Yankees were pretty much only able to stay competitive thanks to outstanding performances by the pitching staff. The playoffs further solidified the idea that a team can only go so far with a mediocre bullpen (Tigers, I'm looking at you). Robertson thrived in his first year as the team's official closer, and he will obviously land a hefty contract wherever he ends up. It's nice to hear that Cashman considers re-signing D-Rob a priority, but it seems like they should have started contract negotiations before the season ended or even worked out a contract extension last year. Although he wasn't a "proven closer" yet then, he had always been an elite pitcher, and it stood to reason that he would remain one.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are interested in bringing back Chase Headley and Brandon McCarthy, but they've also decided that they'll just move on if they get "above-market, four year offers elsewhere."  Both Headley and McCarthy played significantly better after their mid-season trades to the Yankees, and though they are not the best free agent options on the market, they may be the best options for the team. If the Yankees don't pursue the group of Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields, then McCarthy stands to be best of the cheaper alternatives. The same goes for Headley if the Yankees don't pursue Pablo Sandoval.

Of course the Yankees shouldn't just top every other team's offers to Robertson, Headley, and McCarthy in order to retain them, but things start to get a little worrisome if none of them return. Dellin Betances had a stellar rookie season, and could be entirely capable of taking over the role of closer, but Shawn Kelley and Adam Warren had quite a few rough patches last season. Who knows when Jacob Lindgren could end up joining the team. The one-two punch of Betances and Robertson worked well last season and seems like the best way to lock down the 8th and 9th innings moving forward. As for third base, Martin Prado can play it, but he looks to be the starting second baseman at this point. If they can't re-sign Headley, then we might see Alex Rodriguez playing more games there than he should be. Then there's the rotation, which has a ton of question marks. CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka will be returning from the DL, Hiroki Kuroda may not re-sign, and Ivan Nova will not be ready to join the team until at least May. If they aren't going to bolster the rotation with McCarthy, then they will almost have to sign a lower quality pitcher.

What is the maximum amount of money/years that you would be willing to offer on contracts for D-Rob, Headley and McCarthy?

2015 fantasy baseball sleeper: Brandon McCarthy

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Brandon McCarthy's poor first half with the Arizona Diamondbacks will cause many fantasy owners to undervalue him in 2015

Brandon McCarthy spent the first half of the season with the Arizona Diamondbacks before getting traded to the New York Yankees in early July. McCarthy turned in a 5.01 ERA as a member of the Diamondbacks and a 2.89 ERA as a member of the Yankees. So what changed after the trade to the Yankees? Advanced statistics point heavily in one direction, but a change in process on the mound is primarily what propelled McCarthy’s turnaround.

Despite a terrible ERA, most of McCarthy’s peripheral statistics were fair with the Diamondbacks. McCarthy had a K/9 of 7.63, a BB/9 of 1.64, a FIP of 3.82 and most importantly an elite xFIP of 2.88. McCarthy’s 2.88 xFIP was one of the top xFIPs in baseball for starting pitchers at the time of his trade. McCarthy also had a .345 BABIP, which is well above the average of .300. An easy way of explaining McCarthy’s turnaround is to claim McCarthy’s high BABIP and low xFIP accurately predicted a strong progression of results, but I think in this case it’s wrong to do so.

McCarthy had the 22nd worst hard hit rate among starters in MLB during his time with Arizona in 2014. A high hard hit rate will probably lead to a high BABIP because the harder a ball is hit, the more difficult it is to field. Hard contact is usually given up due to missed location (specifically over the heart of the plate), flat stuff, or predictability. In McCarthy’s case, he claims his repertoire was too predictable. He was discouraged from using his cutter by the Diamondbacks and relied heavily on his sinker as his primary pitch. McCarthy told the New York Daily News:

It’s hard to keep major league hitters off of just one pitch (the sinker).

The predictability of McCarthy’s repertoire with Arizona resulted in a lot of hard contact. The harder a fly ball is hit, the more likely it is to go for a home run, so that can help explain why McCarthy’s HR/FB ratio was 20% with Arizona. Chase Field is also a difficult home park to pitch in due to high altitude, low humidity and thin air, which can add to increased HR/FB rates.

The Yankees encouraged McCarthy to use his cutter more often. McCarthy said of the cutter,

The cutter neutralizes the inner half of the plate against lefthanders, and you can do things away to righthanders with it. It kind of helps set up everything else and gives you some room to work.

The Daily News added:

(McCarthy) said the timing of the trade was perfect because he had grown frustrated in Arizona with the club’s preference that he not throw the cutter. "I feel like myself again," he said. "They didn’t want me throwing it any more. They wanted more sinkers away, but I feel like I need that pitch to be successful. The Yankees came to me right away and said, ‘We need to bring the cutter back into play.’ They obviously looked back and saw, ‘when he’s good he was throwing cutters. When he’s not, he wasn’t.’

Catcher Brian McCann also convinced McCarthy to throw his hard four seam fastball, which averaged 93.4 MPH with the Yankees, up in the zone more often as a counter to his sinker. John Harper wrote,

McCann, in turn, said his experience catching sinkerballers such as Tim Hudson convinced him that McCarthy needed to use his fastball and cutter to "change hitters’ eye-level and keep them from hunting just one pitch."

McCarthy’s change in process at the mound with the Yankees resulted in fantastic production. McCarthy finished with the following notable statistics with the Yankees:

2.89 ERA

3.22 FIP

2.85 xFIP

8.17 K/9

1.30 BB/9

49% GB%

9.4% swinging strike %

40% o-swing

The quality of contact McCarthy generated with the Yankees was far better than the hard contact he gave up with the Diamondbacks. McCarthy probably won’t have the same degree of success in 2015 as the league adjusts to his new repertoire, but he’s an excellent candidate to continue to prevent runs at an above average level. With McCarthy’s performance in Arizona skewing his 2015 draft day value, I expect him to outperform his draft slot.

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