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Mets trade Gonzalez Germen to Yankees for cash

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The trade comes a week after Germen was designated for assignment to make room for John Mayberry Jr.

A week after designating him for assignment, the New York Mets have traded reliever Gonzalez Germen to the New York Yankees for cash, according to ESPN New York. The specific amount of cash has not been revealed.

After a solid debut season in 2013, the 27-year-old righty struggled to both stay on the field and keep balls in the park in 2014. Germen only pitched 30 innings in the major leagues last year, and his home-runs-per-nine rate ballooned from 0.26 in 2013 to 2.08 in 2014. That dramatic spike led unsurprisingly to a 4.75 ERA.

Germen's penchant for giving up home runs makes him a confusing fit for the Yankees. A pitcher who has trouble keeping the ball in Citi Field will certainly have trouble keeping it in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium.

This is the first trade between the Yankees and Mets since the famed swap of lefty relievers Mike Stanton and Felix Heredia in 2004.


Yankees trade Prado/Phelps for Eovaldi/Jones: What do you think of the move?

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The Yankees traded Martin Prado and David Phelps for Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones. It's time for you to have your say and tell us what you think of the trade.

The Yankees have made another move, trading Martin Prado and David Phelps for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and pitching prospect Domingo German. Now it's time to find out what you think of the move.

Eovaldi is 24, 25 by the time the season starts. In 460 career innings over four seasons, he has a career 4.07 ERA with a 3.70 FIP. He spent the last two and a bit seasons with the Marlins after being part of the Hanley Ramirez trade in 2012. Last season, he pitched just under 200 innings with a 4.37 ERA, but a 3.37 FIP.

Jones is a first baseman who hit .246/.309/.411 last season with the Marlins, which was good for a 97 wRC+. So he was about league average with the bat. As for his defense, Fangraphs has him as a negative defender for his career. Backing up Mark Teixeira was something the Yankees struggled with last season. Jones isn't a world beater, but would certainly be better equipped than Kelly Johnson and the like should Tex go down again in 2015.

And as for what the Yankees gave up. Martin Prado had a successful stint with the Yankees after being traded by the Diamondbacks at the deadline. He hit .316/.336/.541 for the Yankees while playing a number of positions in the field. He was signed through 2016 as part of the four-year, $40 million deal he signed with the Diamondbacks. His versatility in the field certainly looked to be a major plus for the Yankees headed in to 2015.

David Phelps has been solid but unspectacular since making his debut in 2012. He's pitched to a 4.20 ERA and a 4.21 FIP in stints in both the rotation and the bullpen.

As far as the young, cost-controlled arms go, the Yankees got the better one out of this deal. The question is, when you add in Prado and Jones, is the deal worth it for the Yankees? For all those that wanted the Yankees to get younger, this certainly helps. They got a 24-year old, cost-controlled player at a position they needed the most. And this also most likely opens up second base for one of Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela, which gets the Yankees younger at that spot too. But was it worth it to give up the bat and versatility of Prado? Well it's time to answer that. Vote in the poll below and have your say in the comments.

Poll
What do you think of the Yankees trading Martin Prado and David Phelps for Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones?

  844 votes |Results

Marlins guarantee average production in Martin Prado - Nathan Eovaldi trade

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The Miami Marlins may have traded similar production in swapping Nathan Eovaldi for Martin Prado, but in doing so, they were looking for a low-variance guarantee of wins to boost their situation.

The Miami Marlins did not finish up working the trade market this season, as they moved on from their bonanza in early December with yet another move in trading for New York Yankees super-utility man Martin Prado and pitcher David Phelps. To get those players, the Marlins paid a steep cost, dealing starter Nathan Eovaldi, first baseman Garrett Jones, and pitching prospect Domingo German for the right to pay Prado $16 million of the remaining $22 million left of his current contract.

The Marlins got older, traded a 25-year-old pitcher with a blazing fastball and good peripherals two years running, and gave up a prospect just to lose Jones's salary. In return, they got a guy who is not expected to be that much better than Eovaldi in Prado, who has been worth 10.5 wins over the last three years but 2.5 wins a season over the last two. So why did they do this? Let's delve into the deal.

Guaranteed Prado Wins

Prado has been consistent throughout his entire career. In six full seasons as a big-league starter, he has only once posted a year below league average, back in 2011. He also only once posted a year above four wins, with a five-plus win campaign in 2012 that helped earn him a four-year contract worth $40 million. He is now at age 32 and heading into the second half of that deal, but with that level of consistent work at the plate and defensively, the floor for his game has to be considered low.

And that may be what the Marlins were looking for: guaranteed wins. The Fish felt they were at the end of the wins spectrum where finding certainties was better than having a potential low-floor variance candidate like Eovaldi. Neither player is expected to produce much more than the other, with both likely to be around worth two wins. But Prado's floor contains less of a chance of a complete collapse, whereas the question marks around Eovaldi are still at least present.

Prado certainly brings expected production at the plate. He has no power, with only 11 homers per 600 plate appearances and a career ISO of just .138. But neither did his predecessor, Casey McGehee, who figures to go the bench and had an awful power year with just one home run to his name. Prado's home runs are likely to decrease with the move to Marlins Park, but he has other skills that should translate well. He makes great contact, with a career strikeout rate of just 10.9 percent. While the walk rate of 6.7 percent is not convincing, the low strikeouts should help stem some of the tide of the low power and make him a little less BABIP-dependent. Plus, Prado's line drive approach (career 20 percent line drive rate) fits well in the big outfield gaps in Miami.

Defensively is where Prado's game adds value. In those six seasons as a starter, Prado has played multiple positions and has only once been a net negative defensively, and his best infield position was at third base. In 3186 innings at the position, UZR rated him as worth +5 runs a season, while DRS has him at +11 runs. Even if he is only a modest above-average defender at the position, that should be an upgrade over McGehee, who should not be expected to play well at the position again. Overall, a reasonable suggestion is that Prado is a half-win upgrade over McGehee on defense.

With the offensive advantage as well, Prado is at least a one-win edge over McGehee. And at just $16 million over the next two years, the Marlins are not paying much. If you figure Prado is somewhere between two and 2.5 wins a year in the next two seasons, he may be worth $30 million in the free agent market. Given recent deals to older players like Adam LaRoche, it's not unheard of for Prado to earn $35 million. In these cases, Miami probably acquired $15 million in surplus / trade value.

Young, Steep Price

But to get that one-win advantage, Miami traded a 25-year-old player with a great fastball and upside in Eovaldi. In 2013, Eovaldi posted a 3.39 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 106 1/3 innings, and it was an impressive second season for a young guy with four years of team control remaining. And we knew why Eovaldi looked so much better: his fastball had bloomed to a 96 mph heater on the regular.

But the Fish then saw 2014, in which Eovaldi posted a 4.33 ERA due to a bad BABIP. Despite stable strikeout rates and a decrease in walks to a career-best 5.0 percent, Miami thought it saw a stagnating player. The Fish ignored the improvement in peripherals and improving FIP (3.37) and began looking to see if it could trade the righty, despite having run down his value with rumors and late-season benching threats.

The Yankees are betting that Eovaldi will look somewhere closer to the 2013 version than the 2014 version, and that is a good bet. The common perception is that Eovaldi's fastball was getting squared up and hit harder, hence the worse BABIP. But the statistics don't hold that argument up.

Eovaldi, FastballLD%GB%FB%PU%
20132642266
20142643247

The batted ball distribution of Eovaldi's fastball looks exactly the same between those two seasons. There is no evidence that Eovaldi was being hit harder somehow this year versus last season. Eovaldi got more success out of his slider versus lefties than he was having with changeup in 2013, so he dropped the changeup to decent results. The whiff rates on his slider remained static, at least against righties, from 2013 to 2014.

Yes, there is still a chance that Eovaldi's career 4.07 ERA is going to hold steady and that he remains just a mediocre guy or worse. But he has tremendous upside at a young age and with one fantastic, useful tool in his blazing fastball. Heading into next season, a 180-inning campaign from Eovaldi would be reasonably expected to be worth two wins for the Fish, not much worse than what Prado would provide next year.

That would be worth a lot going into three years of arbitration. Eovaldi is expected to earn $3.1 million in his first year of arbitration. If he were worth two wins in each of the next three years, the Yankees might expect him to be worth $30 million more than the value of his arbitration salaries. That is a big sum of money gained to be used on other sources of wins for the Yankees.

But for the Marlins, they clearly did not value Eovaldi in this fashion. They saw his 4.33 ERA last year and thought of him more as a one-win, back-rotation type. This is may be incorrect, but their valuation of him was based on the fact that that may be where his floor is. Miami wanted more guaranteed victories, and so they opted to take the guarantee of Prado's production over the potential upside of Eovaldi.

For a team closing in potential contention, this is not necessarily a bad idea. Eovaldi has value, but he has enough flaws that his upside may be limited too. He was a three-win player according to FanGraphs last season, but a replacement-level guy according to Baseball-Reference and a 1.5-win player according to Baseball Prospectus. Miami did not want that kind of variance, especially on the low end, and they turned to a more "consistent" player with known production. For that, they gave up a lot of future value and a promising player, in the hopes that Eovaldi does not develop. I would not have made that bet for a one-win upgrade, but it is a reasonable thought.

Marlins acquire Martin Prado, trade Nathan Eovaldi in multi-man deal

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The Miami Marlins acquired Martin Prado and reliever David Phelps from the New York Yankees for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and prospect Domingo German.

And you thought the Miami Marlins were done making deals?

The Marlins have been on the cusp of trading Nathan Eovaldi, as the team sees the flame-throwing righty as expendable given their current rotation. But the concern was that they were undervaluing Eovaldi and were going to trade him for a bad player. Instead, the Fish struck a deal with the New York Yankees to acquire super utility man Martin Prado as part of a multi-man trade.

Heading out of Miami are Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and starting pitching prospect Domingo German, and coming back are Prado and pitcher David Phelps. Prado is the star of the deal, having hit a combined .289/.333/.423 (.333 wOBA) and put up 10.5 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement over the last three years. He fits in nicely at third base, where the Marlins can replace Casey McGehee and reasonably get a one-win upgrade on the position.

David Phelps is a soon-to-be 29 year-old righty spot starter and reliever with not a lot of upside it would seem. His addition to the deal appears minor.

The Marlins give away one of their young, promising right-handers in Eovaldi, who had an up-and-down season with good peripherals but weird ERA due to a bad BABIP. The Fish had been angling to trade him all offseason, but they at least picked up a valuable upgrade for a player who should be worth a lot more than the team was advertising. The Yankees are getting a back- to mid-rotation starter who will only be 25 years old next season, which is a huge boon to their aging roster.

The Marlins also lose Garrett Jones and the full brunt of his $5 million salary. Since Jones was largely expendable thanks to the signing of Michael Morse, the Fish are benefiting in that regard. To pay the cost of losing Jones, Miami ended up trading Domingo German, a 22-year-old righty starter who just had a fantastic year in Low-A Greensboro.

The Yankees are paying $3 million of Prado's $11 million salary this season, and Prado will be owed another $11 million next year. The Fish will now have to depend on Dan Haren pending his retirement decision or a number of other middling minor league names like Brad Hand to anchor the last rotation spot.

More on this trade shortly on Fish Stripes!

Yankees trade for Nathan Eovaldi: 'Arguably reasonable for both sides'

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The Yankees took everyone by surprise once again when they flipped Martin Prado and David Phelps to the Miami Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and Domingo German. Here's how people reacted to the five-player deal.

Certainly not the blockbuster deals that the Padres have been pulling off as of late. The deal doesn't seem very flashy, but it probably doesn't need to be.

Bring us the dingers.

This is what I like to hear. Can you even imagine the potential if it all goes right? Very exciting stuff.

If the Yankees can't get rid of Alex Rodriguez, they can at least make him as much of a non-factor as possible.

No, stop, don't. The ability to give Rob Refsnyder a real shot is probably the thing I like best about this trade. Don't go ruining it with Asdrubal Cabrera.

Yay prospects.

This makes sense. The Yankees don't want Chase Headley having to play first base for any extended period of time because that would mean A-Rod is playing third base for an extended period of time. Jones helps with that.

Let the Rob Refsnyder Experience Experiment begin!

That's...not a very impressive bench. The Brendan Ryan deal continues to look kind of annoying.

Dingers! Dingers! Dingers!

Moving from Phelps to Eovaldi is a clear upgrade, especially if Phelps was going to end up as one of the five starters. Eovaldi was worth three wins last season.

Let's just not do that, okay? Okay.

Yankees trade Martin Prado and David Phelps for Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones: How the deal affects the roster

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The Yankees just made a surprise move by trading Martin Prado and David Phelps away to the Miami Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and Domingo German. With useful players coming and going, the trade actually affects the roster in a number of positive and negative ways. It's easy to see all the negatives, but there are also some intriguing positives coming out of this deal as well.

The most glaring thing is the absence of Martin Prado from the roster. The Yankees could have greatly used his versatility to help out at second and third base, as well as in the outfield, but it now means great things for Rob Refsnyder. After months of speculation about when or even if the Yankees will give their second base prospect a chance, they just did the unthinkable–traded a productive veteran to make way for an unproven rookie. While this is certainly great news for Refsnyder, Prado's presence didn't really block him in the first place. If Ref proved to be too productive to stay in Triple-A, they could have moved Prado somewhere else on the field. By getting rid of him, it doesn't just mean they trust their prospect, it means they're going ahead with no viable backup–unless they sign someone like Asdrubal Cabrera now.

Without Prado on the roster, it also means that Chris Young will be the primary backup outfielder on the roster. If something happens to Carlos Beltran, it means that we will being seeing a lot of Chris Young. He looked cool in the limited amount of time we saw him last year, but it seems that a lot of Chris Young is just too much Chris Young. Making him the only thing standing behind Beltran is very risky, unless they truly believe in one of Tyler Austin or Ramon Flores going forward.

Sure, they have Garrett Jones now to also play right field, but he's here to give Mark Teixeira time off. After two years of going into the season without a legitimate backup first baseman, the Yankees have finally had enough. It's clear that they don't trust Teixeira to stay healthy for an entire season because Prado is definitely more useful than Jones, however Jones fills a role that Prado wouldn't be able to and that's what the Yankees wanted. It's unfortunate to see them replace Prado with Jones, but at the same time, it's nice to finally have a backup first baseman that is better than Lyle Overbay.

The idea was briefly floated about, but it looks like Alex Rodriguez as the backup first baseman is just not going to be a thing. They will probably try to keep A-Rod in the DH-role as much as possible, though now that Prado is gone, he will be the primary backup at third base. Less playing time in the field will hopefully help him stay healthy, but if something happens to Chase Headley, A-Rod will be their only option.

Moving Phelps for Eovaldi is a no brainer because, while Phelps was a useful swingman, Eovaldi can fit right into the middle of the rotation. They basically traded their backup starting pitching depth for an actual starting pitcher, so it strengthens their rotation, but also weakens their backend and bullpen. Thankfully, Phelps had one of the most easily replaceable roles in baseball as the swingman out of the pen. The Yankees are likely going to go with Esmil Rogers now and allow Adam WarrenManny Banuelos, and Bryan Mitchell to compete for the fifth rotation spot in spring training. Maybe at this point they go after Max Scherzer to fill out their rotation, but it's looking more likely that they'll have a rotation of Tanaka/Pineda/CC/Eovaldi/Warren (?) to start the year. We'll see, but pitching is at least starting to fit into place. Let's just hope they're not done at this point.

Meet your newest Yankees: Nate Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and Domingo German

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The Yankees made a trade with the Marlins today, so who are the new players?

Surprise! The Yankees made an interesting move today, sending Martin Prado and David Phelps to the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and prospect Domingo German. It will probably take some time to process the move, as Prado was thought to be a near-lock for the 2015 team, but the players from the Marlins definitely offer some intrigue. So who are the newest Bronx Bombers?

Nate Eovaldi

The 24-year-old righthanded starter is probably the biggest factor in this trade. Selected in the 11th round of the 2008 MLB Draft by the Dodgers, Eovaldi was sent to the Marlins in the 2012 Hanley Ramirez trade. He's been in the majors for four years now, pitching to a 4.07 ERA (109 ERA-) and a 3.69 FIP (98 FIP-), certainly not bad marks for such a young starter. Last year, he hit career-highs in starts (33) and innings pitched (199 2/3), as it was his first full season as a major leaguer starter. The numbers were up and down, as he ended the year with a 4.37 ERA, 3.37 FIP, and a 1.9 BB/9, numbers that were good enough for 3.0 fWAR but only 0.2 rWAR. He's not a big strikeout guy yet, but the fact that he has good control is, of course, a plus.

FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference disagree on how successful Eovaldi's been to date, as his ERA isn't quite as shiny as his FIP. Perhaps the Marlins' defense is to blame, as they finished in the bottom half of the league last year in defense, so with Chase Headley and Didi Gregorius thrown into the mix, perhaps some improvement is on the horizon. He has struggled with lefty batters in the past (.288/.350/.421 compared to .244/309/.369 against righties), but his 0.62 HR/9 even away from pitcher-friendly Marlins Park gives me hope that we don't need to worry about lefties going yard at Yankee Stadium as much as some might think.

It should also be noted that Eovaldi had a more successful 2013 than 2014, as his ERA was almost a full run lower at 3.39 in 18 starts, though he missed a could months with right shoulder inflammation. There is undoubtedly more potential from Eovaldi than the departing David Phelps, so the Yankees took a step up there. Whether it was worth Prado or not can be debated, but as part of the whole package, it seems like it has a good chance of paying off, and people seem to like Eovaldi's repertoire:

Garrett Jones

A former fan favorite on the Pirates, Jones was originally drafted in 1999 by the Braves, but he's only 33 years old. He was a late bloomer, as it took him a little bit of time to catch on with a team; he actually made his MLB debut in 2007 with the Twins. At age 28 in 2009 though, he arrived in Pittsburgh and hit .293/.272/.567 with 21 homers in 82 games, entrenching himself as the Bucs' first baseman and earning down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes. Aside from a one-year stint as the starting right fielder when the Pirates decided they wanted to try the Lyle Overbay Experience in 2011, he held that position down decently for the Bucs, batting .256/.318/.462 with exactly 100 homers over his five seasons in Pittsburgh (including a career-high 27 in 2012), notching a 113 OPS+ along the way.

After slipping to a .233/.289/.419 triple slash and a 98 OPS+ in 2013 though, the Pirates decided to let him walk, and he signed a two-year, $7.75 million contract with the Marlins. This past year was almost a duplicate of his 2013 campaign, as he hit .246/.309/.411 with 33 doubles and 15 homers but a 98 OPS+. Jones has been pretty durable, never playing under 140 games in a season since his abbreviated rookie season in '09, a quality that I'm sure the Yankees appreciate given Mark Teixeira's recent injury struggles.

Jones's defense is nothing to write home about, but he  will likely be Tex's backup at first base. Like Nick Swisher before him, he has the ability to spend some time faking it in right field should Carlos Beltran get hurt. (I imagine Jones and the righty-swinging Chris Young would probably create a platoon.) His lefty bat was probably the most attractive part of his game to the Yankees, as he has some pull power that could play well at Yankee Stadium:

Jones is a complementary piece to this trade, but one who could certainly play a pivotal role on the 2015 squad. We complained a lot last year when the Yankees fell short in acquiring a real backup first baseman for Teixeira. Well, through this trade, the Yankees took care of that for next year, so good on them.

Domingo German

Not to be confused with Gonzalez Germen, another pitcher the Yankees acquired today, the 22-year-old is more of a project. Signed by the Marlins for $40,000 out of the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old in 2009, German played full-season ball for the first time in 2014, making 25 starts for the Low-A Greensboro Grasshoppers of the South Atlantic League (the same league of the Yankees' Low-A Charleston RiverDogs). It's a pitcher-friendly league, but German impressed regardless, putting up a 2.48 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 8.3 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 123 1/3 innings.

Those numbers and the scouting reports impressed the prospect rankers enough to put German #6 on Baseball America's Top 10 Marlins Prospects, and #8 on MLB.com's Top 10 Marlins Prospects. MLB.com has since shifted him to #7 on the Yankees' Top 10 Prospects, between Rob Refsnyder and Jake Cave. That means that Jim Callis and company believe he is the third-best pitcher in the system behind only Luis Severino and Ian Clarkin--not bad. Here's what they had to say about him:

German's fastball is a power sinker that sits in the 91-94 mph zone. His best secondary offering is his above-average changeup, and he has an advanced feel for the offspeed pitch already. German's slider is a work in progress, thrown at 81-84 mph, but it's still a little too slurvy at the moment. He's generally been a strike-thrower throughout his brief Minor League career.

Over at FanGraphs, Nathaniel Stoltz also did a useful piece on German which is a must-read if you have any interest in him. Read that for more information on him, and be sure to check out the GIFs! He looks good. Brian Cashman called German a "lottery ticket," and that he would probably begin 2015 with High-A Tampa. German could be the real prize of this deal so keep his name on the mind.

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Although I enjoyed Prado's versatility, I can understand bringing these players into the Bronx. They offer some serious potential and combined, seem to have a good chance to make even more of a difference than Prado and Phelps in the future. Welcome to New York!

Miami Marlins acquire Kendry Flores, Luis Castillo from San Francisco Giants

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Both Single-A pitchers head to Miami in exchange for Casey McGehee.

Upon acquiring Martin Prado from the Yankees, the Miami Marlins' infield got crowded quickly. Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald first reported the Marlins would consider trading Casey McGehee, and on Friday night, the Marlins sent McGehee to San Francisco in exchange for minor league pitchers Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo.

McGehee, who was the 2014 National League Comeback Player of The Year, had a productive first half, batting .319 with 53 RBIs in front of Giancarlo Stanton. But after he batted .243 after the All-Star break, the Marlins were considering an upgrade, according to Jackson.

Then the Marlins agreed to send McGehee to San Francisco for minor league pitchers Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo, according to industry sources.

That trade had not been announced as of 10 p.m. Friday and the Marlins declined to discuss the Prado trade before the McGehee deal was finalized.

Though McGehee was a pleasant surprise last season, he slumped over the final two months, and the Marlins decided that Prado would be an upgrade.


Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2014/12/10-pm-update-more-details-on-marlins-two-trades-today.html#storylink=cpy

In Flores, the Marlins get a high-A arm that is still developing. Castillo has also shown potential is just over 58 Single-A innings, according to Juan C. Rodriguez of The Sun-Sentinel.

Stay tuned to Fish Stripes for the latest!


Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 12/20/14

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Now that Martin Prado is a Marlin, Brian Cashman says Jose Pirela and Rob Refsnyder will compete in spring training for the second baseman's job. Plus, all your other Yankee news.

New York Post | Joel Sherman: The Yankees have shifted strategies in an effort to inject more youth into their team, taking risks on young, cost-controlled players with upside rather than shelling out big money for declining free agents.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: Taking a closer look at all of the players the Yankees acquired and traded away in a busy Friday.

New York Post | George A King III: Now that Martin Prado is a Marlin, Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela will compete for the second base job in spring training, according to Brian Cashman.

NJ.com | Mike Vorkunov: The Mets and Yankees made their first trade in 10 years yesterday, as the Bronx Bombers acquired righty Gonzalez Germen.  This marks only the 15th trade ever between the two New York teams.

New York Post | Joel Sherman: If Alex Rodriguez is not physically capable of staying on the field this season, the Yankees could use the extra roster space to form platoons at both middle infield spots.

Yankees trade for Nathan Eovaldi: Remembering David Phelps and Martin Prado

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A look the two newest former Yankees.

David Phelps' career as a Yankee was one of the great trade-off in prospect assessment: polish vs. potential. Taken in the 14th round of the 2008 draft out of Notre Dame, Phelps was never really regarded as a top prospect, even within the organization. Baseball Americaranked him #25 in 2009, #16 in 2010 and #21 in 2011, even as he posted the best ERA in the Yankees' minor league system and knocked on the door to the big leagues.

In the majors, the Yankees never knew quite what to do with him, but Phelps didn't really help to distinguish himself either. Guys with seemingly limitless upside like Phil Hughes got longer leashes, and veterans like Andy Pettitte and Freddy Garcia weren't asked to earn their manager's trust in the same way. In the rotation, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda surged past on the depth chart. In the bullpen, Dellin Betances and Adam Warren found their velocity played up better. And all of the sudden, the 25-year-old fast riser out of college became a 28-year-old with 300 major league innings under his belt and 1.35 WHIP. That is to say, a prime trade candidate.

David Phelps' best day as a Yankee was probably from his 2012 rookie season. Facing the Blue Jays in the second game of a September 19th double header, with the Yanks neck-in-neck with the Orioles in the division crown, the Yankees needed every win they can squeeze out of their lineup, and they gave the ball to Phelps. It was his tenth start of the season, though he'd appeared in another twenty games as a reliever. In his previous starts, Joe G. had kept Phelps on a pretty short leash, but that day, he worked his way through the Blue Jays' lineup easily. He got into a little trouble in the second inning, allowing a single run, but he settled down after that.

Phelps pitched into the seventh, having only allowed that single run, and at one point retiring 12 Blue Jays in a row. The Yankees evened up the score in the bottom of the second on a Cervelli double, and finally an eighth inning RBI from Ichiro handed the Yankees the doubleheader sweep. Hitless relief from Boone Logan, Cody Eppley and Rafael Soriano sealed the win.

Martin Prado's Yankee career lasted all of 133 at bats. His versatility helped keep the Yankees' lineup limping forward into the final month of 2014. In only 37 games, he appeared at second base, third base, left field and right field.

Prado's best game was August 22nd at home against the White Sox, with the Yankees four games out of the playoffs and only 38 games left to play, every game had become a must-win. Prado slugged a two-run homer off John Danks to cut the White Sox lead to 3-2. A Jacoby Ellsbury double in the fifth would bring home Derek Jeter to tie the score, and the Yanks and Sox would stay locked at three until the bottom of the ninth.

With two outs and the bases loaded, the Yankees were on the verge of wasting Ichiro's leadoff single. Prado faced Daniel Webb and drove a single into center field for the walk-off win.

Thanks for the memories, gentlemen. Best of luck in Miami.

Yankees get short end of trade with Marlins

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The Yankees traded a veteran and a 28 year old starter for two young arms and Garrett Jones. Putting the deal into the broader context of the Yankees' age, this move makes far less sense than it does on the surface.

The narrative for the Yankees the last couple years has been clear: the team needs to get younger. Defined by bloated contracts and oft-injured veterans, the Yankees have missed the playoffs the past two seasons, in large part because of an aging 25 man roster and a lack of depth. Given this context, it is easy to think the Yankees did well in their three-for-two player trade, considering two of the players they received are pitchers under 25 years old. However, the Yankees sent a projected 2.5 Wins to Miami in exchange for 1.5 and a lottery ticket.

NameAge2014 fWAR2015 Project fWAR
Nathan Eovaldi2431
Garrett Jones330.20.5
Domingo German22------
Martin Prado312.62.1
David Phelps280.70.4

Trading a two-win utility player for a 24 year old power-arm makes sense for most teams; the Yankees however are a unique case. Martin Prado amassed 2.5 fWAR but provided New York with depth at multiple positions thus saving roster space and salary.  Prado also provided the Yankees with some stability, as Prado has played in 143 or more games in each season since 2012.

Heading into 2015, Prado would have been the opening day second baseman and a perfectly serviceable understudy to 37 year old Carlos Beltran who played in only 109 games in 2014. The Yankees now have a large question mark at second and a lack of depth in the outfield.

In the outfield, Chris Young is now acting as Beltran's understudy. Young is projected for a .228/.309/.398 slash line and a 97 wRC+. These projections are rather bullish, as Steamer does not take aging into account. The previous two seasons Young has not even amassed a full win (in total), and the 31 year old's defense continues to spiral downward.

Yankees prospect Robert Refsnyder or Jose Pirela may end up manning second for a majority of the season, but it would be unreasonable to think either (or both) would amass the value of Prado. Pirela has never been a highly touted prospect in the Yankee system and has only stepped to the plate at the major league level 25 times.

Refsnyder has raked in the minors since 2013, but he has yet to log a Major League at bat. Additionally, his defensive prowess is questionable, as he is trying to learn second base.  Refsnyder is a natural outfielder, but it is unlikely he has the offensive capability to be an impact corner bat. As recently as last summer, Brian Cashman said Refsnyder would come up to the bigs as an outfielder at first, "if [Refsnyder] came up here, it would likely be in the outfield." Ultimately, he was never called up in September.

Nathan Eovaldi is a ‘power' pitcher who has yet to harness his big velocity into a devastating amount of Ks. In 199 innings last season, he struck out only 142, and in 106 innings in his rookie campaign of 2013, he struck out 78. Despite the lack of strikeouts, Eovaldi has been an effective pitcher. His 2014 ERA of 4.37 belies the 3.78 xFIP. The Yankees' trade for Brandon McCarthy was partially based on his peripheral numbers, which hinted that there was more talent than was being demonstrated in Arizona. Considering Eovaldi's rookie season, when he finished the year with a park adjusted ERA 10% better than league average, there seems to be something there.

On the other hand, Eovaldi struggles against lefties, and in just over 100 innings, he gave up ten home runs against left-handed hitters last year. The short Yankee Stadium porch in right field could be a detriment to Eovaldi, especially considering his deflated 6.6% home run per fly ball rate in 2014. Regressing that number to the league average of 9.5%, and considering the park effects moving from Miami to Yankee Stadium, it is not inconceivable he gives up 25-30 long balls next season, which will negatively affect his ERA and FIP.

Also part of the deal is Yankees draftee, David Phelps. Contrary to Eovaldi's decent xFIP when compared to his ERA, Phelps' ERA was pretty much in line with his xFIP, with an ERA of 4.38 versus an xFIP of 4.22. He projects as a league average starter in 2015 (per Steamer) and is certainly a step behind Eovaldi in terms of age and ceiling.

33 year old Garrett Jones was thrown into the trade by the Marlins, which is not surprising considering he is owed close to $8 million this season and his contract is up at the end of 2015. Jones was a league average hitter last season (99 wRC+), and his first base defense has been atrocious. The only plus for the Yankees in acquiring Jones is his durability. He has played in over 140 games every year since 2010, so theoretically he can pick up the inevitable Teixeira lost innings, though he cannot play anywhere beside first base.

The Yankees also received 22 year old Dominican prospect, Domingo German. German excelled in A ball last season, throwing 123 innings and striking out 113 batters. In the Futures Game this past summer, he pitched one inning and KOed both Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo. He has a 95+ MPH fastball and an above average wipeout slider. German failed to appear on any top ten organizational prospect lists prior to 2014 but launched himself into the sixth position in the Marlins system per Baseball America. He will be a welcome addition to a Yankee system that lacks depth, but it will be several years before German impacts the New York club.

The question that remains is whether or not the upgrade from Phelps to Eovaldi is worth giving up the nimbleness of Martin Prado. Although it seemed a fait accompli that Prado would be dealt when Headley was signed, the Yankees are overlooking Prado's value in versatility. Even despite the ceiling of German, the Yankees come out on the short end of the deal. New York received durability in acquiring Jones, but at the expense of giving up a nice combination of durability and 2.5 Win player who could man multiple positions. Eovaldi over Phelps is definitely an upgrade, but on the whole, this trade makes the Yankees worse off for 2015. The Yankees have missed the playoffs the last two seasons, and 2015 could be more of the same. Perhaps in the long term they will end up winning this deal, but in the short term, New York comes up short.

...

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

Steven Martano is a Featured Writer at Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @SMartano.

Randy Levine expects the Yankees to be "very competitive" in the AL East next season

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The Yankees president made an appearance Thursday to say that fans shouldn't get their hopes up for Scherzer and that he expects the team to be "very competitive" in the AL East.

Though he's been quiet for most of the offseason, Yankees president Randy Levine made an appearance Thursday in which he basically just reiterated what GM Brian Cashman has been saying for the past few weeks.

Max Scherzer and offseason spending

On the topic of Max Scherzer, Levine said that Yankee fans shouldn't get their hopes up that they will be signing him or any of the other top free agents on the market. Apparently signing Scherzer is not "realistic" because the payroll is already around $200 million. This is interesting, especially because the Yankees usually react to the moves of the other teams in the AL East by spending more. No one remind him of the $400+ million they spent last offseason.

2015 AL East competition

Levine went on to say that he expects the Yankees to be "very competitive" in the AL East next season. Obviously there is still plenty of time in the offseason for the team to sign other players or make a trade, but right now it doesn't feel that way, especially with the improvements that the Red Sox and Blue Jays have made. The rotation is both incomplete and a disaster waiting to happen. The worst case scenario would involve Masahiro Tanaka having Tommy John surgery, CC Sabathia's knees giving out (or CC just pitching horrendously) and Michael Pineda's shoulder getting messed up again. Ivan Nova should return in May or June, but Nova tends to pitch either very well, or very poorly. If everything goes awry, and the Yankees don't sign another pitcher, it's not outside the realm of possibility that we see this rotation at some point: AL East newcomer Nathan Eovaldi, Chris CapuanoAdam Warren, Chase Whitley and Bryan Mitchell. That's scary to think about. There's also the fact that the offense has been terrible for two seasons, and there haven't been that many upgrades to it.

Injuries

Finally, Levine pointed out that the team was "decimated" by injuries last season, and that the team will be better if last year's injured people are all healthy. So the plan for next season is just to cross our fingers and hope everyone stays healthy? Maybe it's just me, but it feels like the Yankees have been chronically injured since 2012. Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira saw very little of the 2013 season. Curtis Granderson and Francisco Cervelli both broke a couple of bones. Alex Rodriguez missed most of the season due to hip surgery. Kevin Youkilis played in a whole 28 games. When the 2013 season ended, it ended with a sigh of relief and the thought that surely the team would be healthier in 2014. Then the entire rotation went down (minus Hiroki Kuroda somehow). Tex couldn't stay healthy, neither could Carlos Beltran. If anything, 2014's injuries were worse than the year before. Haven't the past few years been enough to show that we need to be over-prepared for injuries? Not to mention the fact that last year's old players will only be older and potentially more fragile this season. But if everyone stays healthy then things could be great, right?

How do you think the Yankees stack up to the rest of the AL East at this point?

PSA Comments of the Day 12/20/14: Cashman, do the thing!

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In a stunning display of why PSA writers should never take off on Fridays, Brian Cashman made a big trade yesterday. Prado and Phelps are heading to Miami while Eovaldi and Jones are heading to the Bronx. Pitchers and catchers report in 61 days.

Yesterday was just another show of why Pinstripe Alley writers can not take off on a Friday during the offseason. I guess that can include all Yankees bloggers out there, but why are you going there instead of here? Don't you like us? Shameful need for love and attention aside, Brian Cashman did the thing yesterday. The Yankees made an out of nowhere trade with the Marlins, acquiring Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and prospect Domingo German for Martin Prado and David Phelps. Yes, David Phelps has been packaged with a player not named Austin Romine or Adam Warren for other useful players. If I may please have a moment of silence for all those future "trade Phelps and [insert meh player here] fanposts and comments that are now lost to us.

Comments of the Day

Remember how the day began with Harlan joking about getting Scherzer? I don't either. Sorry Harlan.

There were some mixed reactions to this trade. You'll see a bunch of them below.

See? We've already reached potential "Ninja Cash" status.

Concerns with the offense are still there, and rightfully so. But still, Eovaldi is probably better than Phelps.

Finally, LTL gets to the really important issues with this trade!

More opinions!

NoGollum, I mean NoMahbles, has quite the conversation with himself.

Oh right. Cashman also got Gonzalez Germen from the Mets. So obviously, we've got jokes!

I'll be honest, I don't think Eovaldi or Gregorius are any harder to spell than Palazzolla.

Really though, when you factor the original Peter O'Brien for Prado trade into this trade, it really does make this seem more Ninja Cash-like.

It's good to know that Garrett Jones and his wife are super excited to be coming to the Bronx. Also good to know that Arun is excited and potentially drunk!

I still stand by this.

I agree with Potter!

GIF of the Day

This was Matt Freedom's response to the fact that the Yankees got German and Germen. It is magnificent!

Awwwwwwww!

Honorable Mod Mention

Since former writer Matt Keegan is not here to accept this HMM award, I'll take it in his honor.

Fun Questions
  • What about the most recent trade has you the most excited?
  • Now that Phelps is out of the "trade package" mantra, who are your go-to names for low-ball Yankee trades?
Song of the Day

Cause I'm calling him Captain EO. As always, please link us your Song of the Day.

It's the last weekend before Christmas. Did you get all of your shopping done? This goes for you as well, Brian Cashman. We know you read our blog and base your opinions on what we think!
This was from yesterday's COTD thread. Apparently, I was right. Anymore presents on the way, Cashman?

DO THE THING!

What the Prado/Phelps for Eovaldi/Jones deal means for Yankees payroll now and going forward

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The Yankees seem to be very cost conscious this year as they have refused to sign expensive free agents to lucrative contracts. In fact, most of the moves they have made have been motivated by the desire to save money. They signed Andrew Miller at $9 million per year over David Robertson at $11.5 million. They traded for a pre-arbitration eligible shortstop in Didi Gregorius instead of signing any of Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie to more expensive free agent deals. They decided not to pursue Jon Lester or Brandon McCarthy, and seem set on leaving Max Scherzer alone. They ended up bringing Chase Headley back at $13 million a year, but it seems that they have now made up for that money by clearing away some payroll in their latest trade.

To keep up with the pattern, Martin Prado and David Phelps for Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones was not only about finding the pieces they needed, but also about saving money while doing so. The Yankees traded Prado, who was due $11 million in 2015, and David Phelps, who was projected to get $1.3 million in arbitration, to the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi at a projected $3.1 million and Garrett Jones for $5 million on the year. The Yankees agreed to pay $6 million of the remaining $22 million on Prado's contract over the next two seasons, meaning that they will be giving $3 million to Miami this year. Essentially, the deal gives the Yankees everything they wanted. They traded $9.3 million in order to receive $8.1 million. Take those savings, add them to the $2.5 million they saved by choosing Miller over Robertson, consider the cost of Rob Refsnyder at second base now, and that Gregorius will make peanuts next to someone like Drew, and they might have saved themselves somewhere between $10-15 million dollars by the end of the offseason.

Last year, the payroll was slightly over $197 million in player AAV and right now, before arbitration is decided yet, the Yankees sit at around $193 million for 2015. With Shawn Kelley, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, and Nathan Eovaldi all due to receive a combined $11 million in arbitration, and with another $4 million going to pre-arbitration players, that number jumps to $208 million. If you include luxury tax to the 2014 payroll, the final number ended up being over $203 million, so no matter how hard they try, it doesn't seem like the Yankees will be able to drop payroll any lower than that this year without actively trying to tear down the team. After this year the only players who will be coming off the books are Chris Capuano, Chris Young, and Garrett Jones, and while Kelley will be a free agent too, he'll be replaced in arbitration by Gregorius, Justin Wilson, and Adam Warren. They might not be able to tear down payroll, but they can hold the line.

If the Yankees are making their moves based on payroll, they're going to find it very difficult to hit that $189 million mark over the next two years. Not much payroll will be freed up before the 2017 season when Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran hit free agency, so expect moves like the Yankees made for Gregorius and Eovaldi to become more of the norm going forward. In a few years, the Yankees could end up relying on more prospects, especially if Greg Bird and Aaron Judge pan out, alleviating their need to add expensive players at the trade deadline or during the winter. They may have saved a marginal amount of money so far this offseason, but with fewer and fewer big contracts to pay off, the Yankees seem to be stabilizing payroll for the future. It'll be time to watch once the big contracts start coming to an end, then they can either start to reinvest or decide that a cheaper team is the way to go.

We talk about Plan 189 like it's this imminent thing, but it's really not. Their biggest mistake was trying to reach it in one offseason. Now, by taking it slow, Plan 189 will envelope a new era in Yankee baseball because it's not a singular event that will come and go. Expect the payroll to level out over the next two seasons and then drop after that, but as long as they continue to make shrewd deals to actually improve the team overall, rather than just protect their pocketbook, the Yankees suddenly crying poor won't be nearly as painful, as frustrating, or as confusing as it has been. It's just a new way of life.

Brian Cashman shakes up the depth chart

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Yankees add Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, Domingo German and Gonzalez Germen; send Martin Prado and David Phelps to Miami.

Just when it appeared that the 2015 New York Yankee roster was taking shape, Ninja Cash strikes again. Martin Prado and David Phelps have been sent to the Miami Marlins in return for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and Domingo German. In a second trade, Brian Cashman acquired Gonzalez Germen from the New York Mets for cash considerations.

Helpfully we have different spellings for German (the pitching prospect) and Germen (the reliever)

The Yankees are now at the limit of the 40-man roster, with Preson Clairborne already designated for assignment to make room for Germen.

As for the projected 25-man roster, lets take a look at some of the ways these trades have made an impact.

Projected New York Yankee 2015 Depth Chart
  • Catcher
  • Brian McCann
  • John Ryan Murphy
  • First Base
  • Mark Teixeira
  • Garrett Jones
  • Second Base
  • Robert Refsnyder
  • Brendan Ryan
  • Third Base
  • Chase Headley
  • Alex Rodriguez
  • Shortstop
  • Didi Gregorius
  • Brendan Ryan
  • Left Field
  • Brett Gardner
  • Chris Young
  • Centre Field
  • Jacoby Ellsbury
  • Brett Gardner
  • Right Field
  • Carlos Beltran
  • Chris Young
  • Garrett Jones
  • Starting Pitcher
  • Masahiro Tanaka
  • Michael Pineda
  • CC Sabathia
  • Nathan Eovaldi
  • Chris Capuano
  • Relief Pitcher
  • Esmil Rogers
  • Adam Warren
  • Shawn Kelley
  • Justin Wilson
  • Gonzalez Germen
  • Closer
  • Dellin Betances
  • Andrew Miller
  • Designated Hitter
  • Alex Rodriguez
  • Carlos Beltran
  • Garrett Jones

Martin Prado and David Phelps were both near-locks for the 25-man before being traded to the Marlins. Their projected spots are taken by Garrett Jones and Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi instantly slots into the starting rotation. This likely ends the prospect of a spring training battle for a rotation spot where previously Adam Warren, Chase Whitley and Bryan Mitchell as key competitors alongside Phelps. Expect Warren to remain in the bullpen where he had success last season, and for Whitley and Mitchell to start the season in AAA.

Garrett Jones has the versatility to cover first base and right field, in addition to providing a left-handed alternative and potential platoon partner for Alex Rodriguez at designated hitter. Jones being able to cover first base in particular is very valuable, finally providing the Yankees with credible depth behind Mark Teixeira. Meanwhile, losing Martin Prado has left the Yankees with no veteran option at second base barring any further additions. Robert Refsnyder is likely to have the inside track to the starting job at second base, though he might be expected to beat out Jose Pirela in spring training for the gig. In either case, there is likely to be only one roster spot available between those two and any other potential veteran competitors the Yankees might bring in. Whoever the starter ends up being expect Brendan Ryan to be the backup second baseman as well as shortstop. Alex Rodriguez is now the primary backup third baseman. Certainly positional depth at the major league level has taken a hit overall with the loss of Prado; a potential consequence is that short-term injuries might be more likely to result in disabled list stays as the Yankees aren't quite as equipped to cover week-long stretches short-handed.

Gonzalez Germen joins a crowded mix in terms of the battle for bullpen spots. Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, Adam Warren and Shawn Kelley are all likely locked into relief pitching gigs, with Justin Wilson a favourite to be the second lefty reliever in the pen as Miller takes on more of a late inning role. Esmil Rogers is likely the favourite for the role of long man, though perhaps Chase Whitley or Bryan Mitchell could push him for that job. This leaves the Yankees with six of the seven bullpen spots likely accounted for, and Germen will likely have to battle Jose De Paula to be the last major league relief pitcher with the Yankees. As for prospects such as Jacob Lindgren and Jose Ramirez, the likelihood of breaking camp bound for the Bronx, which wasn't necessarily high to begin with, have likely taken a small hit. In the long run though, unless Germen performs far above expectations he shouldn't block an elite prospect like Lindgren for too long.

The most important player in terms of evaluating this trade might not be a player directly involved. Barring a veteran aquisition, Refsnyder has an opportunity to seize the second base job coming out of spring. If he proves ready to perform at the major league level, this trade is much more likely to look like a successful move for Cashman.


Yankees felt they had to give youngsters a chance after signing Chase Headley

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Trading Martin Prado to the Marlins may not have been the Yankees' favorite move to make, but if they want to have Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela on the big league roster in 2015, it was definitely a necessary one.

The Yankees' trading Martin Prado and David Phelps to the Marlins in exchange for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, first baseman Garrett Jones and pitching prospect Domingo German Friday has some in the former's fanbase up in arms, but New York GM Brian Cashman says the deal is worth it.

Cashman, speaking about the swap Friday afternoon, thinks making it was necessary in order to give guys like Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela and a chance to play in 2015, something that's consistent with the team's past statements. The Yankees often expressed their interest in carrying the duo on future rosters this summer, so it's unlikely they wanted to keep Prado after re-signing Chase Headley on Monday.

Still, it's possible sending Prado away will someday come back to hurt the Yankees, as the veteran solidly batted .316 with seven home runs and 16 RBI in 37 contests for them last season.

"After we signed Headley, we felt we had these young kids who could compete and take the job there at second," Cashman told MLB.com's Paul Casella. "Only with the right deal would we move Prado, and we felt this was a deal worth taking a shot at."

It certainly may prove to be, with Eovaldi and Jones both seeming to have much potential. Eovaldi, despite going just 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA in 2014, is known to have a fastball in the upper-90s, while Jones has hit 94 homers over the last five years.

But that doesn't mean cutting ties with Prado was easy for Cashman, who praised the utility man for his personality.

"It's not easy (trading Prado)," Cashman said. "Not just because of his versatility, but the type of player and person he is. The leadership qualities he possesses, the ability for him to play second, third and outfield. Those are valuable assets for a manager."

They definitely were when the Yankees were vying for a playoff spot in August and September, a time period in which Prado excelled wherever he started. Originally acquired to man right field, Prado often impressed with his glove in the infield as well, particularly at second.

Nonetheless, since they're trying to get younger this offseason, it's probable the Yankees just didn't want to hold onto an aging star like him any longer, good as he still appears to be at all aspects of the game.

Poll
What are your thoughts on the Prado trade?

  795 votes |Results

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 12/21/2014

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Forbes | David Lariviere: The Yankees appear ready to release Alex Rodriguez by Memorial Day.

Beyond the Box Score | Steven Martano: The Yankees traded a veteran and a 28-year-old starter for two young arms and Garrett Jones. Putting the deal into the broader context of the Yankees' age, this move makes far less sense than it does on the surface.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: If the Yankees don’t find another move that they like, their 2015 roster might already be set.

Bronx Baseball Daily | Delia Enriquez: Looking at the good and the bad of the Yankees outfield.

Yanks Go Yard | Joe Vitulli: The Yankees have put together the best defense the team has put on the field in years.

Fangraphs | Eno Sarris: One reason to get excited about Nathan Eovaldi is that, by arsenal, velocity, and peripherals, he’s pretty much Garrett Richards.

Yankees traded for Garrett Jones to serve as injury insurance

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The Yankees traded Martin Prado and David Phelps to mostly get Nathan Eovaldi from the Marlins; that was their prize. However, in order to make up for losing Prado, they needed another bat who could play backup at multiple positions, which is where Garrett Jones came in. The Yankees didn't just see him as another 1B/RF bench guy, they saw him as injury insurance against all the players who will likely get hurt at some point this season.

As everybody insurance, Jones will be there in case any of Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran or Alex Rodriguez suffer any kind of serious injury. The Yankees finally saw it worthwhile to have a true backup first baseman and not just someone who they can chuck in there and hope survives. Jones isn't exactly a wizard with the glove, but he has nearly 4,000 innings at first base and won't be a liability out there. If Tex goes down for a month, that's what the team will need, not A-Rod or someone else trying to figure out how to scoop an errant throw. Remember the Kelly Johnson Experience?

A huge concern going into the offseason was how the Yankees would defend against the possibility that a 37-year-old Carlos Beltran might get hurt again in 2015. They wasted no time re-signing Chris Young, but if Beltran went down for an extended period of time, they were going to need someone else out there. One of Prado's many talents was his ability to play in right, making him extremely valuable as an outfield backup, both in case of injury and in order to ensure that Young doesn't get too much playing time. With Prado gone, the Yankees needed someone who could take his place as placeholder in a damaged outfield. Garrett Jones has over 2,000 innings in right field, and though he isn't rated especially well out there, he'll likely be better than an old Beltran and should be able to hit enough to make him worth it.

Now that Alex Rodriguez has been dethroned as the starting third baseman, he'll likely be used as the everyday designated hitter to start the season. The hope would be that he could finally remain healthy if he has a less intensive year in the field, but the man hasn't stayed off the DL in years and having a competent backup will be a necessity. Jones hits for more power than Prado and is less of an extreme strikeout/home run hitter than someone like Mark Reynolds, making him a serviceable DH in the event that A-Rod once again gets put on the shelf for a long period of time. Now that Prado is gone, A-Rod will have to be the backup third baseman, and if he has to fill in for Chase Headley, Jones can easily slip in at DH for the time begin.

Jones struggles against lefties, but with Brian McCann also able to play first, Young in the outfield, and any number of players able to fill in at DH against the occasional tough southpaw, the Yankees' newest addition should fit in quite nicely when he's needed. If the last two seasons are any indication, Garrett Jones will likely be needed a lot.

PSA Comments of the Day 12/21/14: Football Open Thread

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The Yankees 2015 team is starting to come more into focus. There's still a bit more of 2014 left though. Who knows what else Cashman and the Yankees FO have up their sleeve. Sunday Football is on. Pitchers and catchers report in 60 days.

No blockbuster trades or free agent signings from the Yankees yesterday. They could very well be done with roster moves until 2015. There are still ten days left in 2014 though, so anything is possible. Of course, by anything I mean that the Yankees have just traded Adam Warren and Shawn Kelley for Clayton Kershaw. Bold move, Dodgers.

Comments of the Day

Prado pretty much negated the Marlins' need for Casey McGehee.

Or at least use one of those lint rollers.

Trump-Hair's Mortal Kombat fatality would be it saying "You're Fired" before incinerating the opponent into ashes.

We've got jokes!

Congrats to ASR on his newest grandson, a young Yankee in the making.

As every PSAer should know, awesome names are important for future Yankee players. once again, congrats!

El Cruz wishes Oscar Gamble a Happy Birthday!

Opinions on Chase Headley vs. Martin Prado.

Hey Giancarlo. If the Marlins cannot make you happy, I know a team with a short porch that could!

GIF of the Day

No GOTD awards to give out. Bummer.

Honorable Mod Mention

New writer Jack Niemuth posted his first article on Pinstripe Alley yesterday, thus earning him the HMM award. Welcome aboard, Jack!

Fun Questions
  • If you could take a flight to anywhere in the world at this very moment, where would you go?
  • Top three favorite Christmas songs? GO!
Song of the Day

Bargain by The Who

As always, please link us your Song of the Day.

While we await the Yankees' next offseason roster move, there is Football on today. Fantasy Teams are coming to the end, and the playoff picture is coming more and more into focus. Please use this as your open thread for the afternoon.

I'd buy that for a dollar.

An early look at the value and projections of the 2015 Yankees: Pitching Staff

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It appears that the youth movement is underway in the Bronx.

With big questions regarding the Yankees 2015 pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation, Brian Cashman made two moves this week. First, he re-signed Chris Capuano to a one-year deal and then he dealt Martin Prado and David Phelps to the Marlins in exchange for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and pitching prospect Domingo German. Although it was tough to see homegrown star closer David Robertson leave, adding Andrew Miller and Justin Wilson to the late-inning mix is at least a statistical wash and at a savings of $10 million. After writing part one on position players, using both Steamer projections and Sky Kalkman’s WAR Spreadsheet Version 2.0, naturally part two needed to cover the pitching staff. As with the last installment in the series, this part will continue using projections and update throughout the offseason.

For background reading concerning the WAR team spreadsheet, click here and here and if you’re looking to find the first part of this series click here. I’ve made some updates to bring the spreadsheet up to date, such as using the current WAR market value of $7MM and using the 2014 American League ERA average of 3.82.

When reviewing the data in the starting rotation, it appears that they will have a slightly higher than league-average ERA of 3.95, in comparison to the 2014 AL average of 3.82. One concern that I do have with the Steamer projections are the innings pitched that CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka are all expected to throw in 2015. If the Yankees get anywhere near that level of production, they would have to be thrilled.

Pitcher


S/R


IP


ERA


LEV


FA $


WAR


Masahiro Tanaka

S

192

3.44

1.0

$26.9

3.8

Michael Pineda

S

173

3.91

1.0

$18.0

2.3

CC Sabathia

S

192

3.93

1.0

$17.9

2.5

Nathan Eovaldi

S

182

4.44

1.0

$9.1

1.2

Chris Capuano

S

67

4.20

1.0

$4.9

0.6

In the second chart, with health being the key, it looks as if Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi will be flat-out steals as young and controllable talent. CC Sabathia, as expected, is an albatross contract at this point, while Masahiro Tanaka will outplay his salary, as long as his elbow remains intact. Chris Capuano should also come close to earning his contract value as filler for the final rotation spot. When you compare cost versus production, the Yankees could come out with a huge return on their investment. However, if health fails to hold up, this could avalanche into a nightmare quickly.

Player

Pos

FA$

ACV

ROI

Masahiro Tanaka

SP

$26.90

$22.00

$4.90

Michael Pineda

SP

$18.00

TBD

TBD

CC Sabathia

SP

$17.90

$23.00

($5.10)

Nathan Eovaldi

SP

$9.10

TBD

TBD

Chris Capuano

SP

$4.90

$5.00

($0.10)

This past season was one that saw the tandem of David Robertson and Dellin Betances form one of the most dominate late-inning combos in all of baseball. While losing Robertson to the White Sox may have been a blow, it can be argued that, with the additions of Justin Wilson and Andrew Miller, the bullpen might actually be stronger in 2015. While five out of seven spots are all but set, it would appear that 2014 second-round pick Jacob Lindgren could take one of those remaining two spots. That would leave Adam Warren, Jose Ramirez, Danny Burawa and Andrew Bailey, among others to battle it out for the final bullpen spot.

Pitcher


S/R


IP


ERA


LEV


FA$


WAR


Dellin Betances

R

65

2.74

1.3

$12.7

1.8

Andrew Miller

R

65

2.38

1.0

$12.7

1.8

Shawn Kelley

R

55

3.06

0.9

$5.8

0.8

Justin Wilson

R

45

3.48

0.8

$2.7

0.3

Jacob Lindgren

R

0.7

$0.4

0.0

R

0.6

Esmil Rogers

R

40

3.79

0.5

$1.1

0.1

Dellin Betances is the bargain of the century if he comes close to his projections while even at $9 million a year, Andrew Miller would show a nice return on the Yankees investment. Shawn Kelley, Justin Wilson and Jacob Lindgren should all safely out-pitch their contracts. The contract of Betances, Kelley, Wilson and Rogers are currently unsettled, so I’ve decided to forego the return on investment chart until a later date.

After two disappointing seasons and missing the playoffs, it appears that old age has reared its ugly head. With underperforming contracts and injury concerns, it appears that Yankees ownership and the front office have decided that it’s time for a youth movement. Even though there’s still plenty of time to further refine the roster between now and Opening Day, as currently constituted, the roster is about an 81-win team. Though ownership will never admit to rebuilding, it’s clear that the past two seasons have necessitated the move towards young, controllable talent. I’m by no means writing off 2015, but with Judge, Bird and Severino expected to arrive by 2016, it makes sense to ride out one more season and get closer to the bad contract purge.

Total WAR

37.0

Total FA $

$259.8

Win Talent

80.5

Prob >= X Wins

61

100%

66

99%

71

92%

76

73%

81

44%

86

17%

91

4%

96

1%

101

0%

*All stats courtesy of FanGraphs

**All contract info courtesy of Baseball Prospectus

Follow Sky Kalkman on Twitter @Sky_Kalkman

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