It's been said that the Yankees are looking to get under the $189 million budget mark in order to reset their luxury tax penalties next year. Robinson Cano is now gone and it's easy to see that Plan 189 is indeed in full effect. Hal Steinbrenner says getting that money back will help the Yankees contend long-term, but who are they holding that money for?
If you're wondering why the free agent market has been a little light this year, it's because the market is changing and teams are now able to lock up their players to longer deals that prevent teams like the Yankees from picking them up. Because of that there are less players hitting the open market and less players worth holding onto money for.
In 2015, the Yankees will have Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Brian McCann, and Jacoby Ellsbury signed to long-term contracts. This offseason isn't over yet, so it's possible they also sign Shin-Soo Choo or Carlos Beltran as well. (Update: Beltran it is.)That means next year they would have catcher, first base, and at least two outfield positions locked down, so where would they go with all the money they saved?
The best second baseman on the market next offseason is Emilio Bonifacio, and by best, I mean the least worst. Rickie Weeks and Ben Zobrist both have options for 2015. Who knows where Derek Jeter will be this time next year, but J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie, and Hanley Ramirez will all be on the open market, though Hanley could get an extension from the Dodgers before then.
We still don't know what will be happening with Alex Rodriguez this winter, but if the 211-game suspension is upheld, he won't be able to start the 2015 season on time. The Yankees could look into someone like Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval, or even Ramirez.
Depending on what the Yankees do in the outfield in 2014, they could be looking for one or two free agent outfielders for 2015. Brett Gardner could be re-signed if the deal isn't too high. Colby Rasmus is also available, but they could move him to a corner outfield spot if they really want to.
Next year, CC is the only pitcher guaranteed to be in the rotation again. They're likely to add someone else this season, so it's possible the Yankees could only need one or two pitchers if Ivan Nova remains useful. Here they can choose from James Shields, Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, and Clayton Kershaw. Unfortunately, Scherzer and Kershaw could very well be locked up at some point before they hit the open market.
So now that Cano is gone and they can safely sit under their budget and get their money back, who exactly are the Yankees going to sign that needed all this money? Ramirez, Kershaw, and Scherzer are really the only players I feel the Yankees could use that this money is needed to grab. I'd be surprised if any of them hit free agency.
Since when do the Yankees need to save in order to make a signing? The Steinbrenners are preaching about how staying under budget and allowing Cano to leave will help the team succeed, but when all the savings come down, where is that money going? It feels like it's going right into Hal's pocket.
Now that Robinson Cano has left the Yankees, they will need to find some way they can fill the void at second base, and trading Gardner could help with that. Obviously, the Yankees could sign Omar Infante of Mark Ellis as free agents and trade Gardner for a pitcher as well. There's lots of potential here, even if it's only for one year of Gardner.
Right now the Yankees say they still want their last remaining Opening Day starter, but things can change quickly if they make another signing or see a potential deal improving their team. New York has previously shown interest in Brandon Phillips in order to find someone who can fill in at second base for a few years. Oh, and don't worry, the Yankees reportedly have no interest in Dan Uggla, who is terrible.
Who would you trade Brett Gardner for? Or would you keep him?
General manager Walt Jocketty and CEO Bob Castellini sat down to take questions at a Reds fanfest on Saturday. Jocketty said they would not say any player was unavailable in a trade, but mentioned that it was possible the Yankees could call about Phillips before Castellini cut him off, saying "I don't care about the Yankees. Let's move on."
New York is now without a second baseman after Robinson Cano signed a $240 million deal with the Mariners. That could make Phillips a prime option for the Yankees. The team had been mentioned as a potential trade partner with the Reds earlier in the offseason, but did not appear willing to discuss a deal while Cano was still in play. The Reds say that Yankees officials leaked that the two sides were discussing Phillips in an effort to persuade Cano to sign earlier.
The Yankees do have an offer out to free agent Omar Infante and allegedly see him as the top option to take over second base in New York next season. If that falls through or if they see Phillips as a better fit, talks between the Reds and Yankees could escalate.
The Reds would be selling low on Phillips, 32, if they decide to move him. He is coming off his worst season since becoming the team's full-time second baseman in 2006. Over 151 games in 2013, he hit .261/.310/.396 with 18 home runs. He has lost a step, stealing just five bags last season after a career of swiping between 20-30 bags a season.
Phillips days as a premier slugger at second base are likely over, but he can still be a solid bat and is a very good defensive player. He is still owed $50 million over the next four years, likely the primary reason the Reds would look to move him. Furthermore, it has been suggested the team has been down on Phillips' attitude recently. He had reportedly been upset when the team refused to give him more money before signing first baseman Joey Votto to a monster deal.
If Jocketty and Castellini decide to move Phillips, top prospect Billy Hamilton is expected to take over at second base. For now, the Reds have had him working in the outfield with an eye toward playing him at center field next year.
The Yankees signed Carlos Beltran. The internet did what it does best and reacted to that.
The Yankees have agreed to terms with Carlos Beltran on a three-year deal worth $45 million and the internet has some opinions about that. Beltran is roughly the Yankees' 928th outfielder currently on the roster, which could mean more moves are inevitably coming.
As with any signing or trade, the reaction seems pretty split. Some are horrified at the third year and some are just happy a dude with October success is coming to New York. Feel free to leave your reaction to the signing in the comments below.
For better or for worse, the Yankees' roster will contain Jacoby Ellsbury (barring a trade or serious injury) for the next seven years. Given that, I think it would be best to become familiar with who Ellsbury is and what is to be expected, performance-wise, from him.
Jacoby Ellsbury was born on September 11, 1983 in Madras, Oregon. His baseball skills were apparent as a small child, but baseball was not his only sport. At Madras High School, Ellsbury played baseball, basketball, and football. He was good enough to play college football, but lucky for us baseball fans, he decided that baseball was his favorite sport. Ellsbury was chosen in the 23rd round of the 2002 MLB Draft by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays after hitting over .500 and stealing 65 bases in his senior year of high school, but instead opted to play collegiate baseball at Oregon State University. It didn't take very long at Oregan State for scouts to realize that he was more than a 23rd round pick as he developed. In his junior year, in 244 at bats Ellsbury put up an offensive line of .406/.495/.582 and had 26 stolen bases in just 58 games. In that year he was also a Pac-10 Conference Co-Player of the Year, First Team All-American (Baseball America), and a D1 First Team All-American. It was no surprise that he would be picked in the first round of the 2005 MLB Draft. He was drafted as the 23rd overall pick (the Yankees actually passed on him for their 17th overall pick, C.J. Henry) and was signed with a $1.4 million signing bonus. His scouting report after he appeared in MLB, courtesy of SoxProspects.com, is as follows:
"Elite athlete with a great work ethic. Ellsbury has consistently won awards for his defensive play in center field. He is extremely fast and knows how to run the bases. Demonstrated great on-base ability in the minors, but has struggled maintaining that early in his big-league career. Gap power with the ability to leg singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Not much home-run power and doesn't project to add a lot either. Projects well as a major-league leadoff hitter. Doesn't slump too often because you can't turn off his blazing speed. Lettered and excelled in five sports in high school, including football, where he could have played at a very high collegiate level as a kickoff returner. However, he enjoys baseball the most. Arm strength is below-average."
Ellsbury broke into the Major Leagues in the 2007 season and showed his speed and defensive potential. In just 33 games, he stole nine bases and put up 136 wRC+. To be fair, that is a small sample size and the organization wanted to see if that would project forward. In his first full season in 2008, he tabulated 4.1 fWAR, put up 91 wRC+, and a UZR/150 of 14.3 in CF; 2007 was no fluke. I've decided to tabulate some relevant statistics from 2008 to 2013, which I will unpack:
Year
G
PA
HR
SB
BABIP
wRC+
UZR/150 (CF)
fWAR
2008
145
609
9
50
.312
91
14.3
4.1
2009
153
693
8
70
.328
98
-10.0
2.1
2010
18
84
0
7
.217
26
20.7
-0.2
2011
158
732
32
39
.336
150
16.1
9.1
2012
74
323
4
14
.304
84
9.8
1.4
2013
134
636
9
52
.341
113
12.9
5.8
A few things of note: obviously, as we all know, Ellsbury missed much of 2010 and 2012 due to a couple of freak accidents. Whether these freak accidents have something to do with his durability is something that has been of great debate as of late, but they cannot be ignored. Whether they were freak or not, they happened. I would say that the Yankees have bet that these will have little bearing on his durability going forward; no one plunks down $153 million with that much doubt. The other important piece is 2011, which is considered by some to be a showcase of Ellsbury's prowess, and considered by many to be an outlier. The biggest outlier is that of his home run total, which never exceeded more than nine in a season other than 2011. While including 2011, Ellsbury has averaged 5.29 fWAR per 162 games, which is great. If we remove 2011 from that equation, then he averages 4.08 fWAR per 162 games. And while that is a whole game of a difference, I wouldn't use 2011 to discount his overall performance.
The past is the past. What type of performance should we expect in the future? That is the $153 million question. To get a general idea, it'd be best to consult Nate Silver's eminent study on the aging curve. An important piece that he includes is that of the center fielder:
While a downward sloping curve is obviously not ideal, total derived value is really what is important. The idea that players built on speed decay quickly has again and again been proven fallacious, and this illustrates that the rate of decline for a center fielder is very similar to that of the average player. Nate Silver in this study uses EqR (equivalent runs), which we don't traditionally use anymore, so obviously the better measure is WAR. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs suggests, this can be translated into a WAR decline of approximately 0.5 WAR per season. Steamer projects Ellsbury to tabulate 3.8 fWAR in 2014. That would mean, following this general model, that in his time with the Yankees he would have years with fWAR's of the following: 3.8, 3.3, 2.8, 2.3, 1.8, 1.3, and 0.8, respectively. That would put his contract total at 16.1 fWAR. One could even argue that this total should be a hair higher given Steamer's ungenerous projection. 16.1 wins would mean that the Yankees are paying $9.5 million per win. And while this is certainly a large overpay, it also isn't. By that I mean that the Yankees' efficiency system works completely different than every other MLB team. A win for the Yankees is not the same as a win for another team, as Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus so eloquently explains. The revenue lost from having a team without Jacoby Ellsbury exceeds that of the overpay itself.
This whole exercise is for naught, though, if Ellsbury spends an extended period of time (in his first four years) on the disabled list. The success of this deal is solely predicated on the fact that Ellsbury provides his expected performance in the first four years of the deal to ensure that it doesn't become a sunk cost. As I have said before, I think that the Yankees are confident that it does not follow that Ellsbury's injuries prove that he is "injury prone."
The other important factor is that Ellsbury is transferring from one big market region to another. There have been concerns in the past on whether a star player can "handle New York", and we've seen examples of both ends of the spectrum. Ellsbury originates from a market that holds every athlete to an incredibly high standard, and he has helped the Red Sox win two World Series championships. Questions may arise about his future performance and injury proneness, but what cannot be contested is that Jacoby Ellsbury is sure to be a team and clubhouse leader, as well as a player that will represent the New York Yankees organization with respect and professionalism.
Ken Griffey Jr. has some thoughts about Justin Smoak.
I spent the entire day yesterday glued to my phone, following the Cano news and somewhat foolishly hoping the next big Mariners story would unfold on my Twitter timeline mere moments after they had just acquired the biggest free agent on the market. I guess that's what happens when you get a week of BREAKING: stories following a Tuesday that saw everyone in Major League Baseball playing musical chairs.
And even though I didn't get to see Nick Franklin shipped off in the afternoon, there was still some pretty great stuff going down on the intertubes all day. There was a shirsey burning video that should be put in a museum for future of humanity after the apocalypse, when you are having trouble explaining what New York was like to your kids. Jeff Sullivan once again found a way to take the cautious optimism I was feeling about the Mariners and articulate it much better than I could at the time. Dave Cameron did his usual I-can't-be-swayed-by-shiny-toys-thing that snuffs out the baseball childhood wonder in the pit of my stomach, but that's good because we can't be four forever.
And then late in the afternoon, Shannon Drayer posted a really fascinating piece quoting reactions to the Cano signing from the Mariners' camp. Ignoring how wild it would be to say that part of your job is to call Ken Griffey Jr. after the Mariners sign Robinson Cano, because holy shit, it's a really fascinating piece when you dig into it. Harold Reynolds is doing his usual see-it-so-I-know-it thing, Tom Verducci is actually on board with the signing, and Ken Griffey Jr. thinks Justin Smoak is Chris Davis. Wait no, I want to talk about Robinson Cano! Read on--
I am a firm believer that Justin Smoak can do it. He just needs to settle down. You have got to remember that he is a switch-hitter and that is double problems. They talk about Chris Davis; he is Chris Davis. I am not trying to put any pressure on him but he has a good eye and he will hit.
Okay first, I'm going to stop you right there. We've all given up on Justin Smoak, it seems, and while I'm not putting my hat back into the ring, Griffey is actually an interesting person to talk to about this. The numbers people might have my head for this, but all that mental stuff really is a key factor to hitting, those stupid little mental things that can't be understood or measured do have enormous effects on a hitter's ability to go out and hit. Here's more:
He's had four hitting coaches in four years and he is trying to figure it out and trying to please everyone. Just settle down and go out there and have some fun. It's not fun when you are struggling, but it is in there.
Griffey has been there in Spring Training, watching hitting coach after hitting coach probably take Justin Smoak aside and each year give him conflicting advice about this and that, not to mention whatever he did in Texas. Smoak has been a bit of a bust--yes--but he's also been in a really tumultuous situation on a team that hasn't been able to decide what it wants to do, or even how to use him.
Smoak also probably knows his time is coming up soon, and that he can't stay in AAA forever. There is pretty big pressure there, and the Mariners seem to basically be saying "hey, figure out how to hit a bunch of dingers from both sides of the plate, and then come stand on first base and catch a baseball now and then and you'll be fine." But Griffey's comments seem to be interesting--there's no reason a starting first baseman who has been in professional baseball since 2008 should still be struggling like this, even if he's a "switch-hitter with double problems." Suggesting this is all just a mental thing betrays the facts quite a bit, and while I'm positive his situation--combined with the pressure of living up to the whole Chris Davis 2 thing--isn't making his life any easier, it also doesn't mean he should just keep on keepin on at first base next year.
So what were the Mariners going to do with him before signing Cano? What if, as Griffey insinuates, part of the problem is switch hitting? Logan had a really great post here last month about platooning Smoak that is worth a read, and it's pretty relevant here. Basically, we all know Smoak is better as a lefty--and the question seems to be if .5 of a first baseman is worth whatever Smoak is going to get in arbitration, or worth an entire warm body on the roster (what the M's decide to do with that empty DH spot is pretty important here, of course, but we don't know that yet). But as Logan points out, the Mariners have access to HitF/X, and know a lot more about Smoak's tendencies, personality, abilities, and story than any of us do, even though the numbers seem to be pretty telling. Here's Logan:
Presumably they've done a HitF/X analysis of Justin Smoak. If that analysis tells them that both the BABIP uptick and the ISO spike are legitimate - not just one, but both - then there's a case to be made that Smoak is a good enough platoon candidate. So if the Mariners do decide to go into 2014 with Smoak starting at first base, I won't be terribly upset, because it probably means that data I don't have says "this guy is for real".
So the Mariners believe(d) in Smoak. They knew something we didn't (or still know something we don't), and there was at least cause to think that the promise of power that bat showed was going to be a cornerstone to build this franchise around. This is where it gets weird though. The whole Justin Smoak thing came up when talking about lineup protection for Cano. Now, without starting that whole debate, it's going to take something huge for pitchers to be so afraid of Justin Smoak that they throw Robinson Cano hittable fastballs. But Griffey's point is that Smoak doesn't have to hit dingers all the time, he just has to hit. Behind Cano. Because he's a good hitter. Not just a platoon guy. Not just a guy that shows flashes of power and hits 20 HR while striking out 22% of the time. A good all around hitter.
Griffey knows more about hitting than just about everyone who has ever lived, and he likes Justin Smoak. Howard Lincoln has called him the future first baseman of this franchise. Unless the Mariners dramatically upgrade in the offseason, it seems unlikely they are ready to give up on him before a few more years. But if this is even in the conversation, it's a dramatic change to what Smoak was going to do with this team. Suddenly it's not Hey, Justin Smoak, You Can Still Do It! It's Hey, Justin Smoak, Hit After Robinson Cano Every Night To Make Sure He Gets Good Pitches! And No Pressure!
Now, granted, this is just Griffey speaking off the cuff. Who knows what the hell the Mariners are going to do with both Smoak and Cano. The New York Post today had an article from George A. King III that essentially claims Robinson Cano wanted out of New York partially because Girardi wouldn't let him hit anywhere but second because he wanted to pad his stats:
"Robbie didn’t like batting second, he wanted to bat in the middle of the order,’’ one person said. "The Yankees wanted him second because that was best for the team. He wanted to hit in the middle of the order to drive in runs [to increase his value].’’
Well, whatever. Who knows. Honestly, who gives a shit. When you're Robinson Cano, you deserve to get some stats on your way to Cooperstown. But you do know one thing is certain: if even a modicum of this debate is true, it's not happening in Seattle. Cano is probably getting whatever he wants here. Actually, the conversation probably did happen, except instead of occurring between a baseball player and his manager, it was between a rapper-turned-agent and a bald guy who couldn't say anything in response because he was too busy throwing money across the table.
We don't know if Smoak is going to hit after Cano. We don't know if Cano is going to be "protected" in the lineup. But all of this gives me at least the tiniest inkling that Cano knows what he wants, and the rest of this roster is absolutely going to be built around his spot in the lineup. Smoak? Suddenly, the unsolvable Justin Smoak question seems to have an answer. I don't know what it is because Cano hasn't said it yet.
The Yankees made Carlos Beltran their newest signing. But what do you make of it?
After losing both Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson, the Yankees capped off an already crazy Friday by announcing the signing of Carlos Beltran. The 36-year-old agreed to a three-year contract worth $45 million, becoming the Yankees' third major free agent acquisition of the off-season.
Over his 16-year career, Beltran has hit .283/.359/.496 for the Royals, Mets, Giants and Cardinals. The outfielder was named Rookie of the Year in 1999, winning the award by a large margin over runner-up Freddy Garcia. Last season he hit .296/.339/.491 while helping St. Louis to a World Series appearance and the best record in the National League. In addition to his regular season successes, Beltran has (increasingly famously) OPSed 1.128 in 51 career playoff games across four years. Beltran has been fairly durable over the last few seasons since missing nearly 100 games in 2010. (Should be noted that his 2010 was spent with the Mets, which could explain that.)
While there seems to be little disagreement that this signing improves lineup the Yankees for 2014, the main issue seems to be with the length of the deal. Beltran will be 39 years old when the contract ends. Is three years too much for someone on the wrong side of 30? How much does Beltran improve the Yankees? Vote in the poll below and head to the comments to discuss further.
The Yankees have too many outfielders now that they have signed Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran. They have received calls on Brett Gardner, but so far the Yankees want to keep him. They could use Alfonso Soriano as the regular DH in 2014, so that leaves Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki as the expendable outfielders.
Wells is likely to get designated for assignment, but the Yankees are reportedly trying to shop Ichiro, with little success. The 40-year-old outfielder is due $6.5 million in 2014, but after hitting just .262/.297/.342 and being one of the worst players in baseball, it's no wonder he offers very little value. A team could see him as a potential fourth outfielder because his defense is still solid, but the Yankees would likely have to eat almost all of his money.
In the end, it might not be worth the effort and they could just cut ties with him. The Yankees could still sign Shin-Soo Choo as well, so they might need to rid themselves of yet another outfielder, in which case they could keep Ichiro and trade Gardner.
A posting fee cap and an open negotiation process could make Japan's best pitcher a less obvious target for the Yankees.
As Jason told us recently, MLB and NPB have agreed to a new posting system for Japanese players that includes a maximum negotiating rights fee of $20 million. In the event that multiple teams bid the maximum they'll all be entitled to talk to the player being posted making him a free agent for all intents and purposes. The new system seriously alters the dynamic in MLB teams' race to acquire Rakuten Golden Eagles ace righty Masahiro Tanaka, but does it increase or decrease the odds that he'll end up in pinstripes?
Jason also noted that the new system could mean Tanaka won't be posted at all. With three years of exclusive rights to him still in their back pocket, Rakuten might wait until 2015 or even 2016 before making Tanaka available, since they're now all but guaranteed the same $20 million fee no matter when they put him up for grabs. Let's assume, though, that the Golden Eagles decide to acquiesce to their star hurler's desire to test his mettle at baseball's highest level. The new agreement might make Tanaka less attractive to the Yankees than he once was.
One of the main roots of Tanaka's appeal from the get-go was that according to the current collective bargaining agreement, posting fees paid to Japanese teams don't count toward MLB's luxury tax threshold. Under the old rules the Yankees could have bid $60 million to speak with Tanaka - surpassing the $51.7 mil the Rangers paid for Yu Darvish's rights two years ago - without paying a dime of tax on that sum. Only the average annual value of the contract they signed him to would go toward their official payroll. Darvish signed for $56 million over six years with Texas, which is considerably less than what the top free agent pitchers on this year's market will get.
Things have changed. With posting fees capped, and with more than one team involved, a much higher percentage of Tanaka's total cost will be taxable by MLB rule. At some point you have to wonder if the Yankees will shift their focus to established MLB pitchers like Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez with Tanaka's tax bill now probably exceeding theirs.
There isn't a lot to go on to predict just how high MLB teams will bid for Tanaka's services. He's just 25 years old, making him considerably younger than anyone else left on a poorly stocked pitching market and he's been flat out otherworldly in Japan. He's managed ERA's of 1.87 or better in each of the past three seasons, including 1.27 in 2013, with a svelte 0.94 WHIP to match. The last NPB free agent of his magnitude was Hideki Matsui, who signed with the Yankees for four years and $32 million - a contract that turned out to be an absolute steal.
Matsui came over eleven years ago, though, and we've seen prices skyrocket all around since then. If Tanaka's overall tag winds up in line with Darvish's that would mean he'll agree to a six-year deal worth roughly $88 million - an AAV of nearly $15 mil per season. That's the low end. In all reality, his cost is likely to climb well beyond that. Depending on how many teams are willing to cough up the posting fee, Tanaka could be looking at a guarantee of more than six years with a value well into nine figure territory.
Even with the system altered, Tanaka should be the Yankees' chief pitching target for the same reasons he should be everyone else's. With Garza or Jimenez, or worst case, Ervin Santana, the Yankees would be committing several years to a pitcher entering his early thirties. Tanaka won't even turn thirty until after the fifth year of the deal he signs. His upside far eclipses that of MLB arms still available, all of whom have considerable warts. Garza doesn't have an elite season on his resume, Jimenez has been wildly inconsistent, and Santana, with his past fly ball tendencies, would be an imperfect fit for Yankee Stadium at best.
For the Yankees' odds of landing Tanaka if they go after him, the impact the new rules will have is unclear. On the one hand there's no longer the risk of being out-dueled in a blind bidding process. On the other, they'll now need to compete with big spenders like the Dodgers and Angels out in the open. They'll also need to convince Tanaka and his people that the Bronx is the best place for him to play, win and grow his brand. With teams outside of New York now adhering to the dump truck full of cash method of bargaining, it's no given that the Yankees' pitch will come out on top.
New York might be scared off by the high prices being paid in the current free agent market.
With second baseman Robinson Cano bolting for Seattle and third baseman Alex Rodriguez facing a probable suspension, the New York Yankees need to find some help for their infield. They are more likely to fill that need via trade than free agency, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.
New York's current roster boasts Derek Jeter and Brendan Ryan at shortstop and Mark Teixeira at first base. Beyond that, though, the team's only other options are Eduardo Nunez and recent free-agent signing Kelly Johnson, both of whom profile better as backups than everyday starters. Nunez has been worth more than a win below replacement level over his four-year career by the measures of both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs; Johnson is a year removed from being an everyday second baseman after playing primarily left field for the Rays last season, and has posted a collective .307 OBP over the last three seasons.
The dearth of quality free agent infielders, combined with the Yankees' desire to keep their payroll below $189 million in a period of skyrocketing prices on the open market, could lead the team to the trade market to find help. New York has recently been mentioned in the same breath as Cincinnati second baseman Brandon Phillips, and the Atlanta Braves made it known early in the offseason that Dan Uggla is available in a trade, although the Yankees have not been connected to him at all. Seattle's Nick Franklin may also be available now that he has been displaced by Cano.
The remaining free agent pool includes options such as Omar Infante at second base and Juan Uribe at third base. However, both players could be expensive after putting up productive seasons for playoff teams.
With free agent Shin-Soo Choo likely out of the Reds' price range, it looks likely that Billy Hamilton is the leading candidate to replace him in center field and atop the lineup, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.
Hamilton got a cup of coffee in the majors last year as a September call-up and immediately flashed the game-changing speed that is his calling card. He went 7-for-19 with four infield hits and stole 13 bases in 14 attempts, with seven of those swipes coming as a pinch runner. Hamilton stole 75 bases in 123 games last season in Triple-A. Defensively, he shifted from shortstop to center field in 2012 and has reportedly taken well to his new position.
Said general manager Walt Jocketty, via Sheldon:
General manager Walt Jocketty conceded that Choo would be out of his club's price range. "It's going to be very difficult for us with the amount of money that's out there," Jocketty said. "[Hamilton] would be our leadoff hitter if we went to Spring Training tomorrow."
Reds' president/CEO Bob Castellini also weighed in, via Sheldon:
"We better be looking at Billy Hamilton. He'll be up to it. Don't count him out,"
Oakland is likely looking for an upgrade at catcher or second base in a win-now deal for Anderson, although that is not necessarily a strict requirement. Anderson has top-of-the-rotation potential, but injuries have limited him to 22 appearances, only 11 of them starts, over the last two seasons. With the A's clearly stating that they are going all-in for 2014, they seem willing to cash in on the left-hander's potential if it nets them an upgrade in the short-term. However, Rosenthal reports that talks with Colorado are unlikely to start back up again, so Oakland will need to find a different suitor. Anderson is owed $8 million next season and has a $12 million option for 2015.
In other A's news, the team continues to get nowhere in regards to their proposed relocation to San Jose, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Word has come out that the league denied the team's request to relocate as far back as June 17, but Slusser reports that the denial was not a rejection but rather a notice that the proposal was insufficient and needed to have information added to it.
Slugging outfielder Wily Mo Pena will return to Japan's NPB for a third season, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sports Net. Pena spent the last two seasons with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, but will now play for the Orix Buffaloes on a $1.5 million contract. The former major league slugger swatted 21 home runs for the Hawks in 2012, but managed only one long ball in 55 games during an injury-plagued 2013 campaign.
Meanwhile, outfielder Eric Thames will spend 2014 with the NC Dinos of the Korean Professional Baseball League, reports Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Thames split the 2013 season primarily between the Triple-A affiliates of the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles, finishing with a .799 OPS and 10 home runs in 98 games. He last played in the majors for the Mariners in 2012, and he has a career OPS of .727 with 21 home runs in 181 major league games. Thames was claimed off of waivers by the Houston Astros in September, but will instead look to build up his value overseas.
Peguero had been in the San Francisco Giants' organization since 2006, and was named the #98 prospect in baseball prior to the 2012 season by MLB.com. However, he never stuck with the major league club and was the victim of a numbers game in November when he was designated for assignment to make room for new additions. The Orioles apparently hope that a change in scenery will bring out the talent that Peguero has shown at times in his minor league career.
Carlos Beltran becomes the sixth outfielder on the Yankees 2014 roster. What will they do with the current logjam?
It's been an active week for Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees.
On the same day the Yankees lost their All-Star second baseman to Seattle, they turned around and signed outfielder Carlos Beltran to a three-year, $45 million contract, just days after giving a seven-year deal to Jacoby Ellsbury.
It's hard to be surprised at this point. The Yankees have made it clear that they intend to spend and now that they aren't committing $25 million plus to Robinson Cano, they're likely to spend even more on other areas.
While the infield and pitching staff remain question marks heading into the Winter Meetings, the Yankees have themselves quite a logjam in the outfield. They now have Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki, and Vernon Wells all under Major League contracts for the 2014 season. That's six outfielders vying for roster spots and playing time. The Yankees front office has some options as to how they want to play this going through the winter and into spring training. I see five possibilities as to how this can be handled.
Option 1: Keep them all
Hey, all teams would love to have six outfielders, right? Happens all the time! In all seriousness, this is almost certainly the least likely option. Three outfielders are going to start and one will likely be a DH, and that still leaves two without definitive roles.
I am truly sorry to break this to all you die-hard Vernon Wells fans out there. I know there are plenty of you, but here it is: He serves no purpose on this team. None. He had no purpose towards the end of 2013 when Ichiro was the everyday right fielder, and he certainly won't have a purpose now that the Yankees have added two more outfielders to the mix. They're not paying him anything either, so I'd be really surprised if he's not cut the moment these deals become official.
The only chance the Yankees even consider keeping all six would be if they discuss moving Soriano back to second base, but anybody who watched him play the position ten years ago knows that this cannot, and will not happen. So with that in mind, that brings us to...
Option 2: Cut Vernon Wells, keep the rest
Certainly more likely than the last one. Under this scenario, Gardner-Ellsbury-Beltran will likely be the starting outfield with Soriano serving as the DH. Ichiro would remain on the team as an immensely overpaid pinch-runner/late inning defensive replacement.
Option 3: Cut Vernon Wells, trade Ichiro Suzuki
Early indications are that this has a chance of happening. There are teams that might be willing to take Ichiro with only one year left on his deal, and it would clear the Yankees of the two outfielders that just last week were projected Opening Day starters. There were some reports that the Yankees are already trying to shop Ichiro, but they might have to eat a good portion of his salary to get a deal done. If they go this route, then they'll have Gardner-Ellsbury-Beltran in the outfield and Soriano as the DH.
Option 4: Cut Vernon Wells, trade Brett Gardner
When you add two very capable outfielders in a week, it can make some guys expendable. That's just how it works. With the logjam in the outfield, Brett Gardner could hit the trading block if the Yankees want to move him to upgrade in other areas. Up to this point, the Yankees have said they don't intend to trade Gardner, but that could change at any moment. Other teams have reportedly been calling the Yankees about him, so he could absolutely be moved in the right deal. If they do trade Gardner, it likely will be in some package for infield or starting pitching help. Soriano-Ellsbury-Beltran would start in the outfield.
Option 5: Other
You can't predict baseball, right? The four options above are the first that come to mind given the current state of the team. Beltran and Ellsbury just signed, and Soriano has a no-trade clause. You would figure those three guys are safe, but again I've learned not to be surprised by anything. I seriously doubt they'll go after more free agent outfielders, but Shin-Soo Choo is still available!
So that's really where they stand at this point. I fully expect Vernon Wells to be gone either by DFA or just a trade (if some team is willing to pick up Chris Stewart, then anyone is tradable). So unless something crazy happens that nobody sees coming, it could simply be a question of whether Gardner or Ichiro gets traded. As the Yankees head into the Winter Meetings, we'll soon see how this all goes down.
This didn't go right and someone needs to pay. Where should I aim my completely rational, totally not neurotic fiery ball of rage?
If you're anything like me there's been a white hot pit of loathing growing deep in your gut ever since the news broke that homegrown Yankee superstar Robinson Cano is now a Seattle Mariner. It's a shock to the senses for sure - a humiliating kick in the groin. It's not supposed to work this way. When an outstanding player is a Yankee he's supposed to stay a Yankee for as long as we damn well want him to. As fans, we're lost and confused. We're angry.
It's not healthy to keep all that bad stuff inside, so let's pick a target at whom to direct our hatred and angst. Who should it be? Who's to blame for this debauchery? Here's a look at the options:
Robinson Cano
For our neighbors to the north in the Boston area, it's been a tried and true tradition to kick dirt on former favorites on their way out. We didn't want him back. He wasn't that good anyway. He's not clutch, he doesn't hustle - and so on. Hard as it is to admit, there's a certain appeal to their approach. Cano had every opportunity to stay a Yankee on a lucrative seven-year deal worth somewhere between $168 and $175 million, depending on which report you believe. Our former second baseman tossed away the opportunity to join an elite company of Yankees-for-life populated by Hall-of-Famers and baseball legends. There will never be a Robinson Cano day. We'll never see the number 24 hanging in Monument Park, at least not with his name attached to it.
But let's be fair. Cano didn't leave for a few more bucks. He got an extra $65 or $70 million, even more than that when you factor in the lack of a state income tax in Washington. That's more than the GDP of some countries. He could buy himself an island with that. There's a respect factor, too. Cano's been the Yankees' best player for the past four years, and their best offer to him only topped what they paid the far inferior Jacoby Ellsbury by around fifteen percent. Great players don't only want to be great - they also want to be reminded, constantly, how great they are. The Mariners did that for Cano this off-season. The Yankees didn't.
Jay-Z
Suffice to say, the next time the Yankees reach the World Series, Jigga won't be invited to perform before game two like he was back in 2009. For someone who's waxed poetic about New York City in many of his songs, the rapper-turned-businessman-turned-owner-turned-agent clearly had no problem taking his first client away from it. I'm guessing that on that fateful flight to Seattle Thursday night, "Empire State of Mind" wasn't playing in the cabin.
Jay-Z and his cohorts at Roc Nation Sports were just doing their jobs. They were looking to make a big splash with Cano to put their agency on the map and to mark it as a true threat to the Scott Boras-dominated world of baseball negotiations. By landing Cano the fourth largest contract MLB has ever seen, they did just that. We'll find out soon enough if Jay-Z can still follow through on his promise to make Cano a transcendent marketing personality. It'll be a lot tougher in Seattle than it would have been in New York, but until I see him fail at something, I'm not going to doubt him.
The Mariners
Seattle knew. The past couple of days have confirmed what many of us suspected all along - that Michael Pineda was, in fact, a sleeper agent, sent over to never throw a pitch for the Yankees, all the while working to convince Cano of the awesomeness of the Pacific Northwest.
Someone needs to remind Howard Lincoln and Jack Zdureincik how things work. You don't outbid the Yankees and take their superstar. They outbid you and take yours. The Mariners blew up the market for Cano by handing him a contract that they'll absolutely regret. Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols couldn't justify their similar pacts and Cano's never been on their level, or even close to it. It's unfortunate that he'll be remembered more for his paycheck now than for anything he'll do on the field, but he has 240 million reasons to not be too concerned.
It's hard to hate Seattle for overpaying. They aren't the first team to go above and beyond the reaches of logic and sanity and they surely won't be the last. They were dead set on adding a star offensive player and breaking the bank was the only way they were going to do it.
The Yankees
Ding ding ding! Well, not exactly. After enduring what A-Rod's contract has become, the Yankees weren't going to give out another ten-year deal to a player over thirty, and for good reason. Seven years and $175 million wasn't a competitive enough offer to give Cano much to think about, but from what we've heard so far, it doesn't sound like an eighth year or a couple extra million in AAV would have made much of a difference. Cano didn't offer to come back at a reduced rate at the last minute. His final plea to New York was for $235 million.
Where Yankee execs deserve blame is for their stubborn refusal to re-sign players before their contracts end. Over the past few seasons we've seen star players around the majors - Justin Verlander, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer and Felix Hernandez to name a few - agree to new deals with their clubs a year or two before reaching free agency. The agreements are by no means small, but they pale in comparison the riches players of that magnitude could find on the open market.
After the 2011 season the Yankees had two team options on Cano for 2012 and 2013 at $15 million per season. They were thrilled at the opportunity to keep their best player around at a sub-market price, especially when guys like A-Rod and Mark Teixeira were out-earning their on-field worth. Short-sighted much? After his 8.4 fWAR 2011 season, Matt Kemp agreed to an eight-year, $160 million extension with the Dodgers. He was a good comparable for Cano at the time - similar in age and production. If the Yankees had made the same offer, they might have Cano signed for a reasonable $20 million per year through 2019.
If the Royals want to sign Infante, they will have to go head-to-head with the Yankees once again this offseason. The two sides recently battled for outfielder Carlos Beltran, who ultimately decided to go to New York. The Yankees already have an offer on the table for Infante and will presumably be even more motivated to sign him with Robinson Cano officially leaving the team to sign with the Mariners.
The Royals, meanwhile, non-tendered Chris Getz and now have Emilio Bonifacio and Johnny Giavotella as the only second basemen on the roster. They do not seem sold on either player as a preferred starting option for 2014 as the team hopes to once again compete for a playoff spot. With Bonifacio's ability to play multiple positions and not-outstanding hitting numbers, the speedy 28-year-old fits better in a utility role. Giavotella has hit well in the minors, but has a career .613 OPS over parts of three MLB seasons.
Infante, 31, played 118 games for the Detroit Tigers in 2013 as he helped the team win the AL Central over the Royals and Indians. The 12-year veteran had arguably his best career season at the plate last year, hitting .318/.345/.450 with 10 home runs. He also provides good defense at second base. While he has only been named to one All-Star Game over his career, Infante has always been a solid player that certainly would not hurt a contending team.
Of course, the Royals and Yankees will not be the only two teams hoping to sign Infante. Several teams have sent an offer to the second baseman this offseason.
While it was annoying to give Beltran the third year he wanted, the influx of power from his bat was needed to help offset the loss of Robinson Cano.
Friday was just about as topsy-turvy a day as the Yankees have ever had in their offseason history. In the morning, they lost their MVP-caliber homegrown talent in Robinson Cano to a monster 10-year contract with the Mariners, and as fans pondered how the Yankees might seek to replace his production in the lineup, the Yankees worked out a three-year deal with the long-coveted Carlos Beltran. While it would have been nice to see the Yankees as vigorous in their pursuit of Beltran when he was a free agent in 2004 and 2011, he is now just about officially a Yankee.
Understandably, committing to a three-year deal with a guy who turns 37 in April has already taken some criticism. Once upon a time, Beltran was one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, but like any aging player, his defense has declined with age to the point where he was a negative dWAR player in St. Louis. Although Beltran has a career walk rate of 10.4%, it dipped to 6.3% last year due to a slightly more aggressive hitting approach. The Yankees are choosing to move forward in 2013 with a guy who was once Rookie of the Year... in 1999. Beltran is no spring chicken, so was it really the best move to bring him into the fold?
Like with the Jacoby Ellsbury signing, there are a few main topics of contention with the opponents to the Beltran signing:
Why give Beltran a third year when they were so previously opposed to it?
Why would they bring in another outfielder when they seemed to be already set with Gardner/Ellsbury/Soriano?
The questions about the third year are the most valid of all. The age 39 edition of Beltran is not likely to be very pretty. Baseball-Reference lists three former perennial All-Star outfielders as the good comparisons to Beltran: Bernie Williams, Larry Walker, and Jim Edmonds. Although he posted a 130 OPS+ in his final season, Walker only played 100 games and retired before his age 39 season. Bernie played his last ball at age 37, when he was slightly below a league average hitter. Edmonds had a 112 OPS+ in 111 games at age 38, but decided to take a year off at age 39, though he did come back for a last hurrah with a 125 OPS+ season in 86 games at age 40. While these are just three cherry-picked examples, they are all cautionary tales. (Fortunately, Beltran has arguably had a superior career than all three of them, and demonstrated why with a better and healthier age 36 season than them all.)
The third year is annoying, but it was apparently necessary to get the deal done to bring Beltran into the fold. He reportedly had a three-year, $48 million offer in hand from the Diamondbacks, and he gave the Yankees a slight discount, just as he did when the Mets gave him that six-year contract in the 2004-05 offseason. This time, the Yankees took him up on the discount and signed him. I don't think anyone is expecting the third year of this deal to be very good, but such is the competitive nature of free agency--teams sometimes have to bid a little bit more than they are comfortable offering to secure a player's services.
Beltran obviously figures to give the Yankees the most value during the first two years of the contract. Though entering his thirties, he has had just one season in the past eight years with an OPS+ under 125. He'll be switch-hitting in a park that's relatively friendly to righties, and famously excellent to lefties. It would not be a reach to hope that Beltran continues this trend in 2014 and perhaps 2015 as well. He will likely have to play plenty of subpar right field this year, but in 2015, Alfonso Soriano's contract will end, opening the door for Beltran to potentially take even more DH time, which he could likely do the same in the ominous year three, 2016. It could end up being a split with Alex Rodriguez, but as of now, no one has any idea what the hell A-Rod's future holds. With some luck, one of the Yankees' blue-chip minor league outfielders could be poised to take over by then, be it Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott, or Mason Williams (on a related note, they all really need to have much better years in 2014 than they did in 2013 to prove that they should be considered a legitimate future possibilities). The bottom line is that while it was not ideal to give Beltran a third year, they had to go three to ensure his bat would help their 2014-15 lineup, as originally planned with the two-year offer. The third year could be rough, but this team has the financial resources to work around a declining Beltran, if necessary. That advantage helps outweigh the risks involved in guaranteeing a third year to Beltran.
As previously mentioned, the Yankees seemed to be set with their outfield plans after signing Ellsbury. Brett Gardner would man left field, Alfonso Soriano would take right, and the DH spot would be open for the some kind of rotation with Soriano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and other older players. Since we all thought that Cano would eventually be signed, the batting order would at least be some iteration of Ellsbury/Jeter/Cano/Tex/Soriano/A-Rod/McCann/Gardner/Ichiro. That's a strong middle of the order, but once Cano signed his megabucks deal with Seattle, it severely crippled that plan. It was a huge step down from the likes of Cano/Tex/Soriano to Tex/Soriano/A-Rod, Tex/Soriano/McCann, or whoever the Yankees decided to use in the heart of the lineup from their roster. Despite some 2012 struggles against lefties, Cano has been mostly immune to platoon splits throughout his career. The Yankees had a big hole in their lineup, especially against lefthanded pitching; the only players who could counter this threat with a righty swing were Soriano, Tex, Jeter, and A-Rod (the latter two are of course older than Beltran and even bigger question marks for 2014).
The Yankees had to make a move to improve their lineup. At that point, the only free agent bats who could really make a noticeable difference were outfielders and first basemen. With Tex in tow, the Yankees weren't about to add a Kendrys Morales or a Mike Napoli (who wanted to go back to Boston anyway), so the only option became an outfielder. That decision would force a quandary on the Yankees regarding their current outfield setup, but to give the offense a boost, the Yankees had little other choice. The absence of Cano left a void in the lineup. The Yankees filled it with one of the best hitters on the market. Although signing Beltran created a logjam in the outfield, the offense as it was after the Cano signing would likely have had trouble staying competitive. The Yankees will have to work on figuring that out (and possibilities of course exist for keeping the inexpensive Gardner while using some kind of DH rotation with Soriano, Beltran, Jeter, and perhaps A-Rod), but the alternative of going forward with that offense without Cano or Beltran was undesirable.
The team ultimately decided to sign the soon-to-be-37-year-old Beltran for three years over the soon-to-be-34-year-old Granderson for four years, the 31-year-old Choo for likely six years, and the 33-year-old Cruz for possibly four years. The problem with Choo and Granderson is that neither would really help the Yankees' lineup against lefthanded pitching all that much. Granderson's work with Kevin Long in 2010 made him better against lefties, and while that showed in 2011, he took a step back in 2012. He did rebound to a 119 wRC+ against lefties in 2013, that was only in 73 plate appearances. As he gets older, his numbers against same-handed pitching are not likely to age well. Meanwhile, Choo's problems with lefthanded pitching are well-documented. He had a paltry 81 wRC+ and .265 slugging percentage against them in 2013; even if he bounces back to his career norm of a 92 wRC+ against lefties, it's an unimpressive figure.
The righthanded Cruz could have been an answer, but he is seeking a four-year deal worth around $75 million, a good $30 million and an extra year more than what Beltran ultimately received. He also hasn't had a two-win season by fWAR measures since 2010 (I'm sure the Biogenesis cloud doesn't help, either). Beltran is no gem on defense anymore, but none of Choo, Granderson, or Cruz are even average defenders anymore, either. Adding any of these outfielders was going to hurt the defense. Keep in mind that while Soriano has been a better defender than all four the past few years, that was in left field. While lower on the defensive spectrum than left field, Soriano has never played an inning of right field in his career. There would be a risk with him out there as well, and though Ichiro can still play solid defense, he is an abysmal singles hitter at age 40. The Yankees were going to enter the 2014 season with a risk on defense in right field; Beltran was just one of many. He's likely to stay healthy, too; he's made just one DL stint in the past three years since undergoing knee surgery in 2010. These days, rest every now and then has restricted him to about 146 games a year since 2011, but that's not really a sign that his knee is about to explode or anything. Hell, he's only made six DL stints in his career.
Beltran is essentially equal on defense to the other outfield alternatives. As a switch-hitter, he is mostly unaffected by platoon splits. Perhaps most importantly to the Yankees, he only asked for three years. Now, these were his age 37-39 years, but they were just three years regardless. Granderson's years would have been 34-37, Choo's new contract will likely ask for at least years 31-36, and Cruz's will likely ask for years 33-36. The problem is that although they would be younger, all of those other players carry about as many question marks as Beltran. I think Choo is more likely to post a better wRC+ than Beltran in 2014, but it would not surprise me to see Beltran, Granderson, and Cruz end up around the same wRC+. The FanGraphs Steamer predictions actually have Beltran finishing a few points higher than Granderson and Cruz. So if systems project roughly similar performances to Beltran in 2014, why give more years to Granderson and Cruz? Choo might be better overall at the plate, but he wouldn't help the Yankees' problems against lefties at all and they would have to gamble on another long contract like they did with Ellsbury. Given these caveats, it's understandable why the Yankees chose Beltran.
Guaranteeing Beltran for three years is certainly a risk. However, his addition to the lineup should be a boon to the 2014 and 2015 Yankees' offense. That's the bottom line, and that's why I've gotten over my uneasy feelings about the addition of a third year.
Ichiro's last three years do not inspire much confidence that New York would receive a large return for him. Since 2010, he has hit just .284/.320/.366 with continually declining defense. The 2013 season, when Ichiro played in 155 games for the Yankees, was the worst year at the plate in his career. He set career lows in batting average (.262), OBP (.297) and stolen bases (20).
Ichiro, 40, is owed another $6.5 million for the 2014 season, the last of a two-year deal. The Yankees may have to eat some of that contract if they are able to find a trade partner. It's not immediately clear who may be interested in Ichiro, though the return is not likely to be great. To acquire him from the Mariners in 2012, New York traded away a middle reliever in Danny Farquhar and pitching prospect D.J. Mitchell.
The Yankees would certainly be able to get more in a deal for Brett Gardner, but for now appear inclined to keep him. The team is not actively seeking to trade their 2013 center fielder, but is willing to listen to offers. A very good defensive player, Gardner hit .273/.344/.416 with 24 stolen bases. He has a career 733 OPS and has led the league in steals once, but has just one year of team control remaining. It's plausible the team could acquire a starting pitcher for Gardner, though it would be more of a back-end-of-the-rotation type.
After signing Ellsbury and Beltran, both Ichiro and Gardner are without starting spots. Ellsbury will take over in center field, with Beltran in right and 2013 mid-season trade acquisition Alfonso Soriano sticking around in left. The team also has Vernon Wells on the roster, creating a glut of outfielders. With no full-time DH, the Yankees can use a rotation of outfielders to give each some rest, but they could allocate their resources better by trading one for another useful piece.
The Carlos Beltran signing may have just killed two birds with one stone.
For the third time this offseason, the Yankees have made a big free agent splash. On Friday evening they signed Carlos Beltran to a three-year contract worth $45 million. Three years for a glorified designated hitter is a bit much given his advanced age and injury history. However, there may be a big side effect to the signing: Potentially no more Vernon Wellsand Ichiro Suzuki.
Like this winter, the Yankees signed an outfielder last winter to a deal that was one (or two, depending on your perspective) year(s) too long. That, of course, was Ichiro. After coming over from the Seattle Mariners, Ichiro turned back the clock for a couple months, hitting .322/.340/.454 in 240 plate appearances to finish out 2012. Whether Ichiro's resurgence was due to the Power of the Pinstripes or whatever narrative you choose, it was enough for the Yankees' front office to give him a fresh two-year contract despite his old age and the fact that he was awful during his final year-and-a-half as a Mariner. It goes without saying that the move has backfired, as the 40-year-old Ichiro hit a pathetic .262/.297/.342 in 2013.
Thanks to the injuries to Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira during spring training, the Yankees needed to pick up a bat any way they could. The bat they chose to pick up? Vernon Wells, who, even before the trade, was one of the worst, if not the worst, single players in the game. Outside of an incredibly fluky first six weeks of the season, Vernon finished with a .233/.282/.349 line and somehow managed to get 458 plate appearances. He was, and still is, a complete waste of a valuable 25-man roster spot.
Now that Carlos Beltran is in the fold, the Yankees have six outfielders on board. At the very least, one of these two should get the ax, but why not both? Wells provides absolutely nothing to the table and should get released regardless. Then, there's Ichiro. Unlike Wells, Ichiro might have a smidgen of trade value. Ichiro was worth 1.1 fWAR last season thanks to his base running and solid defense in right field. Jon Heyman proposed an Ichiro for Marco Scutaro trade with the Giants, and, in short, it would be a nice deal for the Yankees. Scutaro is worth $6.6MM AAV for the next two seasons while Ichiro is worth $6.5MM AAV in 2014, so I'd imagine the Yankees would have to eat some money or add another spare part since Scuatro is the better player. If, for whatever reason, the Giants are up for such trade, the Yankees should pull the trigger.
By potentially losing two outfielders in Ichiro and Wells following the Beltran signing, the Yankees would still possess four pretty decent outfielders (or maybe just three-and-a-half with Beltran in the mix), but, more importantly, it gives them one extra roster spot to play with. Given the shaky state of second base, third base, and shortstop, New York should use that spot on an infielder (which is why a trade for Scutaro would be a nice pickup) instead. The acquisition of Carlos Beltran gives the Yankees some options, and hopefully those options will include having Ichiro and Wells being shown the door so the team can continue to make moves to further improve the roster.
As the Winter Meetings get underway in Orlando, Florida, the Yankees continue to monitor the status of free agents that they may be able to bring in to fill holes presently on the team. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Yankees are interested in possibly reuniting with Raul Ibanez, whose late season home run heroics helped propel them to the ALCS in 2012. At this point in his career, Ibanez is pretty solidly a DH even though he was used as more than that during his time in New York. Hopefully the massive number of outfielders already on the roster would keep Joe Girardi from considering Ibanez to be among them, but who really knows if that will be the case.
In 124 games with the Mariners last season, Ibanez hit .242/.306/.487 with a 117 wRC+ and 29 home runs. That kind of power would be welcome on a team that just lost their biggest home run threat in Robinson Cano. It will likely take multiple players to replace that kind of power production and Ibanez could be a way to supplement the home run power lost by Cano and Curtis Granderson that wasn't replaced by signing Jacoby Ellsbury.
New York has also checked in on former Mets and Twins pitcher Mike Pelfrey, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Pelfrey put up a 5.19 ERA in 152.2 innings for the Twins last season. He's the owner of a career 4.48 ERA since breaking into the majors with the Mets in 2006. There's not a lot there to be excited about but the Yankees need pitching and may not want to pay the premium price for Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jiminez with the status of Masahiro Tanaka still unknown.
Should the Yankees bring back Ibanez or take a chance on Pelfrey? Should they try to make another big splash instead?
Robinson Cano is gone. And I have to say, it sucks. It sucks because he was eminently likeable; it sucks because he was (and still is) the best second baseman in the league. If you want to look at this whole situation clinically like it’s all numbers on a page, then the Yankees front office has a tremendously hard task ahead of them: they now have to fill a gaping defensive hole at second base and a gaping offensive hole in the lineup. The scrapheap approach, as we saw with the situation at catcher last season, will likely not suffice. But more importantly, at least for me, is that with Cano moving to the Mariners we lose a tremendous character—a player that was fun to watch; a player that breathed life into the game; a player that was, by all accounts, a legitimately good person. He was, in a word, likeable, and you certainly can’t say that for everyone in the Majors. Indeed, the players that meet all those quotients are in a very small minority.
Initially I embraced this news under the guise that it was a good idea for the Yankees not to meet the Tridents’ offering because the contract it resulted in would be a) expensive and b) long. I suspect this prima facie reaction was little more than a coping mechanism. Now I hate that they didn’t sign him—the sort of disgust like thud thud thud goes the baseball bat in the hands of a crazed mobster in a Martin Scorsese flick. I am aware of all the arguments against, and I even subscribe to these arguments, which certainly makes me something of a walking, typing contradiction. Still, I can’t shake the side of me which cries out in vain. It’s not rational. It’s not smart. But it’s there. And what are you and I to do? Nothing, because we don’t run the Yankees. To that end, join me, if you will, in revisiting some great moments in Robinson Cano.
Hipster Cano
Who's Sorry Now?
Between you and I, this actually happened because Cano was too lazy to swing.
Flip #1
And a reverse angle:
His Greatest Gift to Us
There’s a lot to be thankful for when it comes to Robinson Cano being a Yankee, but him providing us with the situation which birthed a plus-plus GIF—here is the authoritative version—may very well take the cake. P.S.: I very nearly called this "His Greatest GIFt to Us," but then I didn’t.
Face
Stab
Michael Kay: "I just wish he’d put more effort into the throw."
Strange Days Have Found Us
Strange Days Have Tracked Us Down
Yes, You Are on Camera
The Triple
Missing from this is how angry John Sterling was that Nix threw the ball to third. He just didn’t quite get what was going on there. Sort of par for the course, I suppose.
Flip #2
A-Rod
Well, listen, we all knew A-Rod would find a way to inject himself into these proceedings.
Contemplative Cano
Flip #3
Flair
When you’re Robinson Cano, you don’t have to field balls in a normal fashion.
Dancing
A Classic
The Swing
The King
Shiny Happy People
A Slam
2011 ALDS, Game 1.
A Ring
A Smile
Two bonus GIFs: 1; 2. You can find more GIFs here, and you can follow us on Twitter here.
Free agent outfielder Raul Ibanez is drawing interest from several major league clubs including the Yankees, Rockies and Braves, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman reports that Ibanez is expected to sign at the Winter Meetings, which start on Monday.
The 41-year old outfielder played for the Seattle Mariners in 2013, marking his third stint with the team. He batted .242/.306/.487 with 29 home runs in 496 plate appearances. Considering his eroding on-base skills (.300 OBP over the last three seasons combined) and embarrassing outfield defense, Ibanez is solely a source of left-handed power at this point in his career; over the last three years, he's hit 68 home runs combined.
Despite Ibanez's power surge last season, both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs valued him as barely replacement-level last season due to the negative value of his defense. Therefore, he is probably best suited as a designated hitter at this point, and that is likely the role for which the Yankees want him. Ibanez played for New York in 2012 and the team could use his powerful bat as a DH against right-handed pitching; they currently have right-handers Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells as DH options. The Yankees are not alone, though; Sherman reports that a "bunch" of other AL clubs are kicking the tires on him.
However, Ibanez is also being looked at by National League teams, including the Rockies and Braves. Those teams would likely want him as a bat off the bench; Colorado already has Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer in the corner outfield positions, and Atlanta's got Justin Upton and Jason Heyward. Both teams are also set at first base with Justin Morneau and Freddie Freeman, respectively.
When Robinson Cano was deciding between staying in New York and heading out to Seattle—still hilariously preposterous to think about—many attempted to examine the external factors that clouded the straight difference in the contract offers.
Seattle fans would say that, with Washington's lack of a state income tax, the gap between the Mariners' and Yankees' bids was even greater than the numbers indicated. Then, on the other side, we kept hearing about the vast "marketing opportunities" the New York market afforded, and the tens of millions of dollars those would produce, effectively closing some of what ended up being a $60 million+ gap between what the Yankees and Mariners were offering.
This is an attempt to look at Cano's "marketing opportunities" from the past. And let's get this out of the way right now: this isn't serious. After Geoff Baker's scorching exposé, consider these your Sunday comics.
In other words, here's some funny and cool commercials the Mariners' best position player appeared in over the past couple years. Also, having written two posts I had to scrap—one optimistic piece on what I assumed would be day two of the Cano recruitment for Friday, and then one on why fans should be hopeful about the organization that was planned for last night—I figured I should play it safe. But if Cano voids his deal this afternoon, you can blame me.
But, on those "marketing opportunities" (read: ads), Cano's most recent one was released just hours after he signed with the Mariners, as Nike rolled out their "Winning in a Winter Wonderland" spot. It isn't all Cano—hardly any—but he opens it, and has a non-Griffey Mariner ever apeared in a Nike TV spot? Here it is:
It's funny, because if you want to see what the weather actually looks like where Cano does his offseason hitting work, here's a look. More on that later.
For a little more humor, here's a semi-recent 'This is SportsCenter' spot featuring Cano. It seems appropriate for this time of year.
Two things here: is Cano going to take this handshake thing to the Mariners? I feel like we could use it. And second, can Cano bring enough attention—see: success—to the Mariners that Felix gets a SportsCenter ad? It could even be a sequel to this LeBron spot.
In another one from ESPN, here's a pretty great Sunday Night Baseball spot that focuses on Cano:.
Toothpaste. Of course.
Now, after a couple spots with intentional humor, how about some rich unintentional comedy? The Yankees have long built up their rich history by gouging the potential legacies of other organizations and stealing way their players, so it's humorous to have them see how other half 95 percent lives—especially at the expense of the Mariners. But yes, unintentional humor:
Robinson Cano is, inevitably, going to take flak for choosing to get paid instead of continuing to build on his legacy with the Yankees, but you have to consider where he comes from. I linked to it above, but it's worth checking out the Getting to Know Robinson Cano show the YES Network put together: part one, part two, part three, part four.
Cano is a hero and an icon in the Dominican Republic, someone whose success—and salary—impacts more than just himself. Here's MLB.com with a video and write-up on Cano's charitable work.
For a more bite-size look at Cano's status in his native Dominican Republic, here's a trailer for a documentary on Cano's journey from the DR to the United States from Jay Z's Life+Times media company. Not sure if it's already been released, or eventually will be—I can't find the full product. But again, here's the trailer:
I don't know how many national spots we'll see from Cano now that he's with the Mariners. It may well be less, but it won't be because he's in Seattle—at least not directly. If the Mariners win, and Cano's a big reason—as he'd have to be—he'll get his. As fellow Jay Z client Kevin Durant has proven in Oklahoma City, you can make money for being famous from anywhere.
But even if the national spots do drop off, it is going to be wild seeing that first Robinson Cano Mariners commercial. Ideas?
