With Brett Gardner on the trading block, could the Yankees get back the Reds' promising young starter?
A name that keeps coming up in the trade talks surrounding Brett Gardner is that of Cincinnati Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. The Yankees still need to add one more starter, and the Reds have already tried to trade for Gardner once (albeit by offering Brandon Phillips and his bloated whale of a contract, as if the Yankees need any more of those). Bailey, however, would be a much more attractive piece, and while it might cost more than Gardner to get him, he would give the Yankees (especially if they manage to sign Masahiro Tanaka) one of the best rotations in the big leagues.
Bailey has been with the Reds his whole career, making his debut in the majors in 2007 before becoming a regular in the rotation in 2009. Since then, while he's had some issues with injuries, he's been quite good, and he only keeps getting better. His ERA and FIP have steadily dropped over the past three years (he posted a 3.49 ERA and 3.31 FIP in 2013, both top-25 in the National League), his ground ball (from 39.5% to 46.1%) and strikeout rates (from 7.23/9 to 8.57/9) have climbed during the same span, and his home run rates have fallen (just .86 HR/9 last year).
He's pitched over 200 innings in the past two seasons, which would help Brian Cashman get half of the 400 innings he's purportedly looking to add. Oh, and lest I forget, Bailey's pitched a no-hitter in each of the past two years. He's trending in the right direction, and at 27, Bailey should still have plenty of productive years left in his career.
However, the Reds may not be willing to give him up. Recently, Reds GM Walt Jocketty said they had no intention of trading him and are instead working to sign him to an extension (a practice the Yankees should undoubtedly look into, because maybe our favorite second baseman would still be in pinstripes. That's a topic for another post, and for a time when the pain isn't so overwhelming). But, these are the usual things clubs say; Cashman said he has no intention of moving Gardner, and yet he's clearly exploring any and all trade avenues for him. Still, Bailey's young and has shown quite a bit of promise, and would give the Reds a formidable young rotation of their own behind with Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto.
Now, to the man the Yankees would have to give up: Brett Gardner. Simply put, Gardner's good. He's a good table-setter at the top of the lineup, he's good on the base paths, and he's a really good defensive outfielder. The Yankees certainly should look into keeping himif only to see what a year of the best defensive outfield in baseball would look like (and to see if that defense is worth sacrificing some of the power normally associated with corner outfielders). But, for the right price, Gardner should be dealt.
While one year of Homer Bailey probably isn't everything the Yankees want and need (and the market for second basemen is growing even more thin now that Omar Infante has signed with the Royals), there's no doubt adding an infusion of youth to the team would be a welcome change. If they could re-sign Bailey after the offseason - which would probably be more likely than re-signing Gardner, since they've already signed up for seven overpaid years of Jacoby Ellsbury, and Gardner will inevitably be getting a raise - they'd have some great young arms in Bailey and Nova to pick up the slack if CC Sabathia continues to decline.
Partner those two with perhaps Michael Pineda, if he can live up to his potential, and the Yankees would be looking at a terrific young pitching core. If they manage to land Tanaka, the Yankees will have an abundance of young arms, which will no doubt let them go out next offseason and spend on a couple new (hopefully not overpaid and over-the-hill) sluggers to maintain a strong lineup.
A Gardner for Bailey trade makes a lot of sense for both sides. Jay Bruce is the only sure thing in the Reds outfield now that Shin-Soo Choo is a free agent, and the Yankees are certainly looking to add pitching, especially now that they have so many outfielders. Still, the Reds might see Bailey as a bit too good and promising to just get back one guaranteed year of Gardner. If that's the case, giving up a non-Gary Sanchez prospect might be worth it. While moving Gardner would limit the Yankees defensively in the outfield (or would mean Ichiro Suzuki will get far too many plate appearances this season if either Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Beltranbecomes the regular DH), the upside on Bailey is almost too good to miss.
Besides, after shelling out $153 million for Ellsbury this offseason, the Yankees will not be handing Gardner the hefty pay raise he will no doubt be looking for (and probably getting) once this season is up. While it would be tough to say goodbye, Gardner's the odd man out in the outfield now, and will probably not be re-signed next year. It's best to get something in return for him now and hope Bailey can be convinced to stay in the Bronx after 2014.
Or, you know, the Yankees could be smart and negotiate an extension with Bailey if they get him, thereby turning the Gardner trade into a major win. The chances of that happening? Next to nothing. Because extending young players before they hit free agency just doesn't make sense, of course.
The Yankees are finally showing interest in Mark Reynolds, who has long said he wanted to return to the team. After missing out on potential alternatives in Juan Uribe, David Freese, among others, Reynolds could be the best choice they have at this point. The Yankees won't know the final fate of Alex Rodriguez until January, and by then it might be too late.
Reynolds hit .215/.307/.373 with the Indians until he was released and was picked up by the Yankees, with whom he hit .236/.300/.455 in only 36 games. He really only had two above-average months in 2013, but he has shown to be good for around 20-30 home runs a year
If A-Rod is not suspended, Reynolds would merely serve as useful corner infield depth, otherwise, he might not be great as a full-time solution. His defense at third is horrendous (-60 DRS), so he's really a DH pretending to belong in the field. Probably most importantly, he gives the Yankees another option against lefties, as the right-handed slugger has a 119 wRC+ against southpaws. Whether as a bat off the bench or a fixture in the lineup against lefties, alongside Alfonso Soriano, he will have his use.
Now entering his age-30 season, Reynolds made $6 million in 2013, exactly half what the Yankees paid Kevin Youkilis. The Twins, Brewers, and Rays are also said to have interest, so they better move quickly before they miss out on someone else.
Gardner, 30, has been the subject of trade rumors this winter for several reasons. For starters, the team signed center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to a monster seven-year contract earlier in December; the two players have similar speed-and-defense skill sets and having both on the same roster seems redundant, especially for a team which found itself light on power last season.
Furthermore, the Yankees have a crowded outfield overall; along with Ellsbury and Gardner, they have Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki and the newly signed Carlos Beltran under contract and are unlikely to go into the season with six outfielders.
The team still has a couple of holes at other positions (second base, third base, starting rotation, bullpen) and dealing Gardner, who is eligible for free agency after next season, would be an easy way to fill at least one of them. One proposed deal which was reportedly turned down by the Yankees (via CBS's Jon Heyman) had Gardner going to Cincinnati in exchange for All-Star second baseman Brandon Phillips.
However, Levine stated that the team has other ideas in his interview on O'Connor's show:
"One of the reasons the baseball people signed Jacoby Ellsbury is (that he and Gardner) together present a tremendous dynamic one-two or nine-one, whatever Joe Girardi decides to write in at the top of the lineup. One will play left, one will play center, and it's a tremendous defensive situation. So no there's absolutely no intention to move Brett Gardner."
New York has shown more interest in trading Ichiro than Gardner to clear up its outfield logjam. The 40-year-old Ichiro has seen his skills decline in recent years and is owed $6.5 million next season, compared with an arbitration estimate of $4 million for Gardner from MLB Trade Rumors.
The Yankees have expressed interest in bringing back free agent slugger Mark Reynolds, according to Heyman. Other potential landing spots could include the Twins, Brewers, Angels and Rays, reports Heyman.
The 30-year-old Reynolds split 2013 between the Indians and the Yankees. He hit .220/.306/.393 with 21 home runs overall, but managed a .455 slugging percentage and six home runs in 120 plate appearances for New York. Reynolds has hit 202 home runs in his career, but does not provide much other value on the field; he has thrice led the majors in strikeouts, his career batting average is .233, and he does not play good defense at either corner infield position.
Reynolds could satisfy two great needs for the Yankees. He would provide help for an infield which may lose third baseman Alex Rodriguez to a season-long PED suspension and which received only 15 games from first baseman Mark Teixeira due to a wrist injury. He would also lend a bit of pop to a lineup which ranked just 16th in the majors in scoring and 22nd in home runs before losing its best hitter, Robinson Cano, to free agency. Granted, New York did go a long way toward replacing Cano's power production by adding free agents Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran to the fold, but another big bat wouldn't hurt.
The other teams listed by Heyman all make sense for Reynolds as well. The Brewers are searching for a first baseman who can hit, the Angels could use some power to replace the recently traded Mark Trumbo, the Rays could use Reynolds as a designated hitter and the Twins need any major league players they can get their hands on.
Orioles, Balfour still stuck on terms of potential deal
The Orioles upped their offer from a two-year deal at $6 million per season to a three-year pact with an annual value of $7 million, reports Royle. However, Balfour wants three years at $8 million per with a vesting option for a fourth year; that extra option year appears to be a dealbreaker for Baltimore, according to Royle.
Balfour, who turns 36 at the end of December, spent the last three seasons with the Oakland Athletics. He served as Oakland's closer for parts of 2012 and all of 2013, racking up 62 saves in those two seasons combined; his stint with the A's marked his first experience as a major league closer. Over his last four seasons, he posted a 2.47 ERA in 259 appearances and did not exceed a 2.59 ERA in any individual campaign during that span. Baltimore coincidentally traded its previous closer, Jim Johnson, to Oakland earlier in December.
Other Rumblings...
- The Indians have their eyes on John Axford as their next closer, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Noah Jarosh wrote earlier today about Cleveland's desire for a reliever with major league closing experience, and Axford certainly fits that bill (106 career saves, three seasons as Milwaukee's closer). Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reports that they are also looking at Fernando Rodney (172 career saves, including 85 in last two seasons combined as Tampa Bay's closer).
- The Rays could still trade catcher Jose Lobaton or outfielder Matt Joyce, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The team is still looking to fill out its bench and could also be in the market for another reliever, according to Topkin.
- The Angels are pursuing free agent outfielder Raul Ibanez in addition to their well-documented interest in starting pitcher Matt Garza, per Rosenthal. The team believes that it could sign both players without exceeding the luxury-tax threshold in 2014, thanks partly to the removal of Mark Trumbo's salary from the payroll, reports Rosenthal. He also notes Ibanez's career line of .349/.407/.522 at Angel Stadium as a driving force in their consideration of the 41-year-old slugger. Regarding Garza, though, ESPN's Buster Olney advises that Los Angeles settle for a cheaper starter like Bronson Arroyo in anticipation of superstar Mike Trout's eventual need for a contract extension, which could be record-setting in value.
Which was a better Yankees moment--baseball's most memorable speech or one of its most unbreakable records?
The Pinstripe Alley Top Moments Tournament enters the second round of the founding-1959 bracket. Vote for the moment that deserves to move on in the poll below.
(#1) Lou Gehrig's "Luckiest Man" Speech
On July 4, 1939, Lou Gehrig stepped to the microphone at Yankee Stadium on Lou Gehrig Day after being diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, a disease that would later be known as Lou Gehrig's disease. The disease put an early end to the Iron Horse's career, also forcing an end to Gehrig's consecutive game streak at 2,130 games from June 1, 1925 to May 2, 1939 because of his deteriorating health.
After announcing his retirement on June 21, Gehrig made his famous speech in front of more than 60,000 fans between games of a double header against the Senators on Independence Day. In the emotional farewell, Gehrig thanked the fans for their kindness and encouragement following his grim diagnosis, and claimed himself "the luckiest man on the face of the Earth", which would become one of the most iconic sports moments in history. Gehrig closed his speech with the similarly famous line, "So I close in saying that I might have been given a bad break, but I've got an awful lot to live for", before being joined at the microphone by his Murderer's Row partner, Babe Ruth.
By the time Gehrig made his famous speech, his condition had already worsened considerably. His number 4 was retired by the Yankees, earning him the honor as the first baseball player to have their number retired in baseball. In December of 1939, Gehrig was elected to the Hall of Fame in a special vote by the Baseball Writers Association as the second-youngest player ever to be voted in. Gehrig passed away in 1941, exactly 16 years after he famously took over for Wally Pipp in the Yankees' lineup to begin his great consecutive game streak.
The Luckiest Man speech is much more than just an iconic player's farewell to the game of baseball, instead representing a dying man showing grace and humility in the face of a tragic illness that ended his career and life all too soon. Gehrig walked away because his condition made him feel like he was hurting his team, but as his manager told him on the day of his famous speech, he was never that.
Joe DiMaggio's 56 consecutive games with a hit wasn't ultimately the most impressive feat of the season- during DiMaggio's streak he went 91 for 223, a .408 average- and that same season Ted Williams hit .406 for season. But .400 didn't captivate the nation the way 56 did. Why? DiMaggio brought a nearly unprecedented blend of power, speed and bat control to the plate.
Here's the list of players with more home runs than Joe D.'s 361 and a lower strikeout rate:
For fun, here's the list of players in baseball history with fewer strikeouts and 200 home runs:
DiMaggio set the record on July 2, 1941 with a homer against Boston's Dick Newsome, moving past Willie Keeler's 44-game hitting streak from 1897. He then pushed the streak to 56 two weeks later after the All-Star break by singling off of the Indians' Al Milnar on July 16th in Cleveland. A couple great plays by third baseman Ken Keltner ended the streak the next day, but DiMaggio's amazing feat has stood the test of time.
For records? Ruth's 60 home runs would stand for 34 years. Ty Cobb's hits record stood for 60 years. DiMaggio's hitting streak is 72 years old and as strikeouts rise, seems safer each season. The second longest streak in MLB history aside from Keeler belongs to Pete Rose- at 44 games, Rose was only three-quarters of the way through DiMaggio's 56.
If Tanaka doesn't get posted, the Yankees are in a heap of trouble for starting pitching.
The latest edition of the seemingly endless Masahiro Tanaka will-he-or-won't-he-be-posted saga has hit. Given the new posting system that will apparently limit MLB team bids to $20 million total, Tanaka's Rakuten Golden Eagles team is less inclined to post him than they were before under the new system. It makes sense; Tanaka alone could very well help them earn more than the $20 million posting fee that they would be receiving for selling his services earlier than necessary. (Way to think that one through, MLB.)
However, Tanaka has said that it is his dream to pitch in the United States, and after seven seasons of dominating the NPB from his age 18 season up until his monster 2013 wherein he pitched to an amazing 1.27 ERA and 0.943 WHIP and helped the Golden Eagles win the Japan Series, it's quite evident that he has nothing left to prove in Japan. Amazingly, he just turned 25 on November 1st. If he comes stateside now, then he'll have a decent shot at a long and successful MLB career. The Eagles don't want Tanaka to go though, and they are reportedly trying to convince him to stay in Japan:
Sponichi is saying that Rakuten is going to try to get Tanaka to hang around for 1 more year. http://t.co/I8O2J05tfq
Tanaka has already stated his desire to become a MLB pitcher by getting posted, so it's unlikely that they will be able to change his mind. As Craig Calcaterra at Hardball Talk notes, Rakuten is not completely obligated to honor his wishes, so they could very well refuse, though that would be a blow to player-team relations throughout NPB.
In the end, it seems like Tanaka will get posted; it's just a matter of when. This news just makes the Yankees play the waiting game a little while longer. It's clear that they (and several other teams) want Tanaka more than any other free agent starter, and I'd rather the Yankees wait on Tanaka than panic and give the likes of Matt Garza or Ervin Santana an ugly expensive contract. Tanaka is probably the best starting pitcher on the market. It's frustrating that the process is taking so long, but there's not much the Yankees can do about it. In Tanaka we trust.
In the meantime, I'm just going to watch GIFs of Tanaka.
Retaining Tanaka would be a "compromise" for his Japanese team, since they would receive much less in return for their best player under the new posting system (agreed to earlier this month). With a $20 million cap on posting fees, MLB officials appear to have made the market for imported Japanese players more competitive in America, which could increase the payout for the player, but does less for the teams posting them.
The Japanese teams in the Nippon League, like Rakuten, stand to gain considerably less than they used to under the old posting agreement. Now, a "compromise" -- like retaining Tanaka for another season to maintain his value to the club for another season -- is their best bet at maximizing their end of the deal. It's likely that they accepted these terms in an effort to avoid losing their compensation in the posting process altogether. Had they stood firm and declined to install a cap figure in the agreement, MLB teams could just wait for Japanese players to reach outright fee agency, and their former Japanese clubs would be left out in the cold with nothing gained from their players' departure. Major League Baseball could have also decided to no longer honor NPB contracts, signing away the league's players with no compensation to the teams whatsoever.
While Rakuten will make less than they could have under the old system -- Yahoo! Japan muses that Tanaka's posting fee could have reached a record high of $100 million -- Tanaka stands to become a very rich man if he is posted. Yu Darvish signed a six-year, $60 million pact with the Rangers before 2012, and Tanaka should reach or exceed that figure, especially in this environment with a lower posting fee. That would represent a substantial increase from the more than the 400 million yen he earned with the Eagles last season. That translates to just over $3.8 million US dollars, so Tanaka will likely be looking for a raise if he stays with Rakuten for 2014.
Sources close to Tanaka have said the 25-year old would "absolutely" like to pitch in the majors next season, and looking at the amount of money he could earn, it's easy to see why.
As of right now, the Yankee bullpen is looking pretty thin. Joe Girardi has already stated that David Robertson, Shawn Kelley, and...Preston Claiborne are the only relievers who will definitely be there in 2014. They have plenty of internal options in Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, David Huff, Brett Marshall, Adam Warren, David Phelps, and Vidal Nuno, most of whom could be fine. However, when those are the only options, it might end up being a very underwhelming corps of relievers. Because of this, it makes sense for them to solidify the backend of the bullpen.
Right now on the market, Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit represent the best options on the board. Unfortunately, as the last week has shown, the Yankees have sat idly by as other teams make their moves. The Orioles currently have a three-year offer on the table for Balfour, and several other teams have been making offers to Benoit. The Indians have signed John Axford, which could leave the Yankees with Fernando Rodney.
Yes, as several tweeps point out, Rodney could emerge as option for #Yankees, too.
Oh God. Think about that. Try not to puke. Rodney has always had good stuff (8.68 K/9), but very little control (4.47 BB/9). He's just one season removed from perhaps the best season ever by a reliever, pitching to a 0.60 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 2012, which made absolutely no sense. Obviously, his 2013 wasn't as great; his control crapped out (4.86 BB/9), yet he was still good with a 3.38 ERA and 2.84 FIP. It's crazy to think that with his ground ball (50.2%) and home run (0.65 HR/9) rates, he would be a good fit for Yankee Stadium.
Still. It's Fernando Rodney. I dislike Fernando Rodney. You probably do too. If it wasn't for the last two seasons, he would probably be struggling to find a job in the majors. If the Yankees sign him and his control doesn't improve, he could be a real headache in New York. Can you imagine them actually signing him? Oh man. If you liked Rafael Soriano Untucking last year, you'll love Rodney's 80 tool tilted hat and shooting arrow dance. I'm not condoning them signing him, but can you imagine if that happened? And was made the closer? That would be the worst. Maybe.
Baseball Prospectus has released their list of the top ten Yankees prospects going into the 2014 season. It's more traditional than Baseball America's list, but it's not overly optimistic about any of their chances to make it.
No. 1: The top prospect in the system is, of course, Gary Sanchez, though Jason Parks believes his stock fell a little bit in 2013 due to mix reviews of both his offense and defense. He still has the potential to be a first-division player as a catcher, though his more realistic future is as a major league regular first baseman/DH type.
While he's still a top 101 prospect in the game, his stock has slipped, and several scout sources continue to question his baseball makeup, and the likelihood that he reaches his tool-based ceiling.
I have concerns about his actual abilities behind the plate. We were told that he was a good defender, but then there were reports that he was just as bad (or even worse) than Jesus Montero. The Yankees kept saying Montero could stay at catcher, but it was obvious that he was horrible when he went to the Mariners. Now I'm worried that the organization is trying to pump Sanchez's value up too.
No. 2: This is the highest I've seen Jose Ramirez place. Parks believes that his health is a major concern after two injury-shortened seasons in a row. He has a plus fastball and his changeup is described as his "money pitch," however, his inconsistent command is going to hurt his potential. If everything goes right for him, he could be a No. 2-3 starter in the majors, but his more realistic future is as a late-inning reliever
If he can stay healthy (big if) and take steps forward with his delivery and overall command, Ramirez could develop into a high leverage reliever, perhaps even a closer if it really comes together. The arm is that good.
For me, injury is still a very big concern for Ramirez. He definitely has the ability to pitch, but he struggled when he made it to Double-A this season and then he got hurt again. He seems to be destined for the bullpen.
No. 3: J.R. Murphyhad a breakout season in 2013, and it has paid off with his inclusion on many top prospect lists. Overall he projects to be a very quietly good player, with the ceiling of a major-league regular and a floor as a quality backup catcher. He lacks impact tools, however, he has shown enough with the bat and the glove that he could be a solid hitter and receiver.
His likely role will be as a backup, he has the potential to develop into an average major-league regular at a premium defensive position, and despite a lack of loud tools, the sum of his parts could make him a very valuable player.
I think Murphy could have been a major-league option in 2014, but he will likely get the majority of his playing time in Triple-A. I'm not entirely sold on his bat just yet, but another solid season like 2013 will make it obvious that he belongs with the Yankees.
No. 4: Playing in over 100 games for the first time in his pro career, the oft injured Slade Heathcott continued to show his toolsy potential. He has high-end physical tools, showing plus-plus athleticism and running, with a plus arm and above average glove, however his reckless style of play will hurt him in the field and at the plate. He has the potential to be a first-division player, but his more realistic role will be as a below-average major leaguer in a bench role.
His game lacks nuance, with an all-or-nothing approach and a highly contagious but often reckless style of play that limits his ability to stay healthy. If he can put the bat to the ball with enough consistency, he can bring his legs into the equation and possibly hit for a respectable average.
I don't think Heathcott will ever be a starting-caliber player. He's just lost too much time to injury and he lacks power and the plate discipline to make up for it. I do think he can be a solid fourth outfielder that can add some speed in the field and on the base paths, though I will continue to hope he builds on his decent 2013 season.
No. 5: Tyler Austin followed up his breakout 2012 season with a disappointing injury-plagued 2013, but the promise is still there. Parks sees him as a major-league regular with good bat speed and advanced approach at the plate, though his more realistic role will be as a platoon player off the bench with, at best, average defense at the corners.
Austin has natural bat-to-ball ability, with a short stroke that produces bat speed and allows him to make hard contact. That contact has yet to manifest itself as over-the-fence power, at least against upper minors pitching, but it has a chance to play to average, and the hit tool and approach could push it beyond that in a perfect world scenario.
I think Austin has the best chance out of the Yankees' three outfield prospects, but that depends largely on how much of 2012 was for real. He lacks home run power for someone who has very little defensive value, but he's still valuable if he can prove to be a good right-handed bat off the bench.
No. 6: Parks didn't seem overly impressed by Mason Williams, who was once the best/second best prospect in the system. He believes Williams is an impact athlete with excellent range in center field with a plus glove, solid arm, and above-average speed. While he does possess good contact ability at the plate, that contact is often weak and his power will be well below average. He has the potential to be a first-division player, but he is more likely to be a below-average option off the bench.
The defensive profile in center will give him value even if the bat falls short of the mark, but the concerns about his work ethic and overall baseball makeup don't offer a lot of confidence that he will reach his potential, much less overachieve his projections.
I really don't see where Mason Williams is going anymore. The 2014 season is going to be make or break for his prospect status going forward. He's struggled, and with that, questions about his makeup have emerged. He's very hard on himself, which is important to see, but it's possible he isn't taking that and being productive with it. This is where coachability issues come in. If the organization thinks it will be impossible to fix his problems, it's best to trade him now before his value completely flatlines.
No. 7: Greg Bird arrives on another prospect list for the first time after his breakout season in 2013. Parks believes he has an advanced approach at the plate with an excellent eye, often taking counts deep. He profiles as a major-league regular, but his bat is what will take him through the system, so he could end up as a platoon player.
Several industry sources were very high on Bird, including one front office (NL) source who said he would take the 21-year-old bat over every position player in the Yankees system other than Sanchez. The makeup gets positive reviews, which is encouraging, but the swing is what really matters, and Bird can hit, with bat speed and strength and the potential to bring legit power into game action.
I love Greg Bird. He led all the minors in walks and it's good to see that not only does he have power potential, but he has an excellent approach at the plate. You have to temper your expectations when it comes to prospects, but if he has another big season in 2014, I think he deserves to be one of the top two in the system, despite his defensive limitations.
No. 8: While many were impressed by Eric Jagielo's professional debut, Parks was more cautious, as he was striking out against only average pitching. Still, he believes he has a good swing and approach with some power potential. He has the arm to play third, though he's probably below-average in the field right now. Jagielo has the ceiling to be an above-average player, but he also has the floor of a below-average player, it all comes down to how he develops.
Jagielo was drafted for his polish and offensive potential, which means he should be facing an accelerated developmental plan and high expectations for immediate production. It was small sample, but I wasn't blown away with Jagielo's bat in the New York-Penn League; the bat speed wasn't special and he was often behind average stuff located over the plate. But it was the end of a long season, and several sources think the 21-year-old product of Notre Dame is going to hit, for both average and power, and if he shines in his full-season debut, he could be sitting atop this list next season.
I have to agree with Parks on this one. He wasn't overly impressive, but then again, in this system even average looks good. I still have high hopes going forward and I hope he shows that he can handle an accelerated workload.
No. 9: Ian Clarkin is one of the Yankees' pitching prospects who actually projects to stick in the rotation. Right now he has a complicated delivery and below-average command, velocity, and movement, but his fastball projects to be a future plus pitch, while his curveball could be his "money pitch." He could be a No. 2-3 pitcher in the rotation, but realistically he could be as low as a No. 4 instead.
The secondary stuff will get there eventually, as the curveball already shows legit plus potential, but the first developmental steps will likely be taken through a heavy dose of four-seam fastballs. Clarkin's a long-term project, but an athletic lefty with a promising and projectable three-pitch mix is worth the developmental patience.
It's nice to see a pitcher in the system that is actually expected to remain a starter. Everyone seems to have high hopes for Clarkin, but until I see him pitch more than five innings, I have to conserve my judgement and potential excitement.
No. 10: Despite his monstrous size, Aaron Judge has shown he's an excellent athlete with solid speed and a strong arm. He has tremendous power potential, but it needs to be harnessed with a refined swing. Judge probably has the greatest difference between potential and realistic future, as he could fall anywhere from a first-division player to a career minor leaguer.
Judge has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order power monster, but he also has the potential to flame out before he reaches the highest level.
Yes, his power potential could have us all salivating, but right now it seems to be more hypothetical than actually in-game. I fear that he could end up completely flaming out if the power doesn't develop. Even then, I don't know how good of an overall hitter he will end up being. It sounds like he could be a home run or nothing player, yet strangely has the athleticism to play the outfield.
Aside from the top ten, three other players were also set aside as prospects on the rise. Luis Severino, a right-handed pitcher who played for Low-A Charleston in 2013, could have been included in the top ten, though he might end up as a reliever down the road. Luis Torrens, another Venezuelan catcher, made his professional debut in rookie ball this year and could hone his raw tools to make big strides in 2014. Jose Campos, who normally makes these lists, has been stunted by injury, but if he's healthy he could be one of the best in the system.
I think it's fitting that Campos fell off the top ten. He has the potential, but until he can prove that he is healthy, it's best to not expect much from him.
Parks also identified three players who could find themselves contributing at the major league level in 2014: Manny Banuelos, once he overcomes any rust from missing a full season, Rafael De Paula, if he's moved to the bullpen and accelerated through the system, and Bryan Mitchell, as a starter or, more likely, a reliever.
Personally, I find De Paula and Mitchell to be very unlikely. De Paula won't be converted to a reliever just yet and Mitchell has yet to really match his results with his potential. I would love to see ManBan up in the majors, but unless he suddenly figures out his control issues, I say he stays in Triple-A until September.
Jason Parks really summarizes the system in one sentence:
It's Gary Sanchez and a list of interchangeable prospects with reliever profiles or bench futures, although the lower levels of the system might be able to put a much-needed charge into a lifeless system in the coming years.
After filling in two of their key weaknesses - center field and shortstop - early in the offseason, the Cardinals went to work improving their bench by signing the criminally underrated Mark Ellis.
There's a feeling among a lot of baseball fans and writers that the St. Louis Cardinals are competent to the point of annoyance. I'm sure people in St. Louis don't feel that way, but for everyone else, it's becoming a little obnoxious how well they run their organization. On Sunday, they added another fantastic piece to a team that has been to the World Series twice in the last three seasons. In true Cardinals fashion, they added Mark Ellis on a one-year deal to be their primary middle infield backup and insurance behind Kolten Wong
There are a few interesting angles to this deal, which we'll hit in quick succession. First, this is a story about the rich getting richer. The Cardinals had very few holes entering the offseason and filled the primary ones quickly with Peter Bourjos and Jhonny Peralta. Beyond that, the only thing the Cardinals really needed was a more impressive bench. During the World Series, it was clear that they didn't have a ton of great options to pinch hit and fill in beyond their starting nine, but in 2014 they'll boast a backup middle infielder who could probably start on a good portion of the league's 30 teams.
Not only do the Cardinals have a strong lineup and great pitching staff, now they'll have some depth up the middle, which was a weakness for the team that came two wins from a title in 2013.
This is also an important signing for the broader free agent market, as Ellis' deal thins an already withering group. Cano was the big prize, Infante was the primary alternative, and Ellis was Plan C. You can't even grab Nick Punto, thanks to Billy Beane and the A's. Kelly Johnson is gone too. Everyone that is left is essentially a replacement level backup. Unless you're going to convert Stephen Drew, the second base market is pretty much bone dry.
Teams like Seattle might have a player to deal and the Reds desperately want to move Brandon Phillips despite very little interest, but Mark Ellis was really the last real option. Which is problematic for teams like the Yankees and others who need to settle the keystone. What's even more interesting is that the Dodgers held a very inexpensive option on Ellis and declined it heading into the winter. The Dodgers could have probably dealt Ellis to the Cardinals for some low tier prospect with a 5% chance of becoming a useful player instead of just letting him hit the market and getting nothing in return.
But aside from the Cardinals angle and broader view of the market, this is a great opportunity to acknowledge Mark Ellis as a tremendously underrated player. He's only played 150 games twice in his 11 seasons, but when he's been on the field, he's been a very productive player, and it's not like he routinely misses 100 games a year. Below you'll see his offensive production, his defensive numbers at second base only (he has fewer than 200 total innings elsewhere), and his overall value in each of his 11 seasons:
Season
PA
wRC+
DRS
UZR
fWAR
2002
404
106
NA
1.4
2.5
2003
622
80
17
5.0
1.7
2005
486
135
8
6.5
4.3
2006
500
84
15
7.7
2.0
2007
642
107
13
9.9
4.0
2008
507
89
23
14.8
3.0
2009
410
86
2
1.4
1.1
2010
492
106
8
7.6
3.0
2011
519
67
17
6.4
1.0
2012
464
98
10
11.0
2.7
2013
480
92
12
5.4
1.8
Ellis is reliably going to offer an 85 wRC+ with a decent shot as something higher and will provide an excellent glove that isn't fading much with age. Ellis might not be a lock for 600 plate appearances like some, but he's going to be a consistent contributor. He's not going to be a four-win player, but he's a safe bet to give you decent value at a good price. And if you're asking him to be a backup or to share time with Wong, he might even be better on an inning by inning basis than if he was asked to handle the starting job. He provides a great defensive option and a solid contact hitter to come off the bench to bat for the pitcher. Just to give you an idea, here are his fWARs per 600 PA:
Season
fWAR per 600 PA
2002
3.7
2003
1.6
2005
5.3
2006
2.4
2007
3.7
2008
3.6
2009
1.6
2010
3.7
2011
1.2
2012
3.5
2013
2.3
It's not perfect consistency, but Ellis is more than capable of being above average off the bench and could fill in as the everyday second baseman in St. Louis without much problem. Ellis is entering his age-37 season, so he doesn't have the appeal of Cano or Infante as a long-term option, but he's showing very few signs of decline. He's nowhere near Cano as a player, but he's a safe option for a team that likes to stockpile good players.
If you are looking for a player who could add value as something between a backup and starting middle infielder for very little cost, Mark Ellis is your guy. He's been one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball over the last decade and gets nowhere near the amount of attention he deserves. As far as under-the-radar moves go, this one could be one of the best of the offseason.
The Yankees are reportedly on the verge of signing free agent second baseman Brian Roberts, according to Ken Rosenthal. Roberts hasn't played a full season since 2009, totaling 77 games for the Baltimore Orioles last season. If this is the move to fill the vacancy left by Robinson Cano, it leaves a lot to be desired. The Yankees would be trusting a guy who has proven incapable of staying on the field for multiple consecutive years.
Options are running low for the Yankees to find an everyday second baseman after Omar Infante agreed to a four-year deal with the Royals and Mark Ellis signed a one-year pact with the Cardinals. Even if the pickings are slim, it's difficult to imagine the Yankees can't do better, via trade at least, than Roberts.
Hopefully the team sees Roberts as more of a bench solution, if anything. Having him start the year as their second baseman, for however long he could manage to stay healthy, doesn't seem like a plan that would make anyone feel confident in the Yankees' chances.
Sources: Addition of 2B Brian Roberts would not preclude #Yankees from adding another IFer, perhaps free-agent 3B Mark Reynolds. MORE
Roberts has spent his entire 13-year career with the Orioles to this point, but with Baltimore trading for Jemile Weeks earlier this offseason, it appears unlikely he will re-sign there. Roberts hit .278/.349/.412 in his career with the Orioles and made two All-Star teams. However, over the last four seasons, a number of injuries have plagued the speedy switch-hitter and he has played in less than half of Baltimore's games since 2010. He hit .249/.312/.392 in 296 plate appearances last season, playing in 77 games while battling an early-season knee injury.
Given his history of injuries, the Yankees would not necessarily trust the second and third base positions to the combination of Roberts and Kelly Johnson, who signed with the New York earlier this offseason, according to Rosenthal. They could still look to add another infielder even if they do land Roberts, possibly bring back third baseman/first baseman Mark Reynold's, Rosenthal suggests. Reynolds signed with the Yankees in August last season after being released by the Indians. He hit .236/.300/.455 in 120 plate appearances with New York in 2013.
Which moment was bigger – World Series perfection or a legendary prediction?
The Pinstripe Alley Top Moments Tournament enters the second round of the founding-1959 bracket. Vote for the moment that deserves to move on in the poll below.
(#2) Larsen's Perfect Game
Don Larsen wasn't the ace of the 1956 Yankees' staff. The 27-year-old San Diego native made just 20 starts all season and gave up four walks and four runs in an inning and two thirds in game two of the World Series. Fans had to feel more than a bit nervous on October 8th when he took the Yankee Stadium hill for Game Five with the Yankees and Brooklyn Dodgers tied at two wins apiece. Two hours and nine innings later, though, Brooklyn's line score was zero-zero-zero and Yogi Berra was jumping for joy into Larsen's arms after catching the only perfect game in postseason history.
Even as Larsen cut through a Dodger lineup that featured four future Hall of Famers, victory was never a sure thing. Sal Maglie nearly matched his performance allowing just five hits and two runs over eight strong frames. A Mickey Mantle homer in the fourth and a Hank Bauer RBI in the sixth were the difference as Larsen remained unscathed into the ninth. Carl Furillo led off with a fly out to right then Roy Campanella grounded to second. Dale Mitchell struck out swinging for the final out on a one-two pitch, Larsen's 97th of the afternoon.
Two days later the Yankees won a decisive game seven and earned their seventeenth World Championship. Larsen's is one of 21 perfect games ever thrown, and at the time it was the first in 34 years. A total of 53 more seasons would pass before a pitcher again managed a no-hitter in the playoffs when Roy Halladay did it in the NLDS in 2010, but no one else has touched October perfection.
Entry written by Harlan Spence on November 20, 2013.
(#3) Babe Ruth's called shot
In the third inning of Game Three of the 1932 World Series, Babe Ruth came to the plate to face Cubs starter Charlie Root. In what may have been an attempt to rattle the legendary slugger, the Cubs bench decided to heckle the Babe mercilessly. Ruth obliged his would-be tormentors by barking right back at them. After taking strike one, Ruth gestured with his hand in an indeterminate direction. After taking a second strike, Ruth repeated the gesture. It's unknown if Ruth was pointing at Root, the Cubs bench or the centerfield seats, but on the next pitch Ruth slammed a home run of at least 440 feet over the centerfield wall. On his trip around the bases, Ruth made sure to let the Cubs know of his accomplishment, making several more gestures toward the dugout.
It would have simply been another monstrous home run in a career of many, as the Yankees would sweep the series easily. But as word spread of the "called shot", the legend grew to epic proportions Ruth, ever the showman, did nothing to demystify the event. While he was coy about whether he was pointing to the seats or not immediately after the game, he would say he was pointing to center in later newsreels and biographies. Naturally, fans and sportswriters ate it up. Regardless of whether or not he actually did call his shot, it is one of the most amazing cases of sticking it to a belligerent opponent in the history of sports. A larger than life moment from a larger than life man.
Entry written by Michael Brown on November 21, 2013.
Outfielder Chili Davis did two tours of duty in Anaheim. HeE signed as a free agent for three seasons with the Angels before the 1988 season. He went to Minnesota as a free agent for two years, won a ring with the Twins in the first and re-signed with the Halos for 1993. He then was traded after the 1996 season to the Royals(infamously bringing Mark Gubicza to the club for a terrible stint as a pitcher only to later haunt us as a broadcaster). He ended up winning two more rings with the Yankees in 1998 and 99.
All that playing time gave him plenty of Angels records. His 4,031 Plate Appearances ranks ninth most by an Angels player. His On Base Percentage (.365) and Slugging % (.464) both rank in the franchise's all time top ten, but most impressive is when you combine the two - his .829 OPS ranks sevnh best in club hisotry but many of the men on that chart have less than half the Plate Appearances of Chili. Only one player, Time Salmon, has more PA with the club than him.
Chili is also in the club Top Ten for some counting stats - Home Runs (156, 6th), RBI (618, 5th), Hits (973, 10th), Total Bases (1,620, 8th) and Runs Scored (520, 10th).
Wait a minute, why is a guy with these numbers ranked only 48th-best in club history? Well...
Chili ranks 10th in outs made (2,691) 8th in strikeouts (713) and 5th in GIDP - he grounded into 108 double plays. He started 586 games as Designated Hitter, just a squeak behind Brian Downing's 598 games as a DH. When calculating a player's all around value, Designated Hitter does pull one down a lot. It is notable that the Angels have not had a consistent DH of more than two seasons since Chili's last year. But all of this is to really ignore one salient point. Chili was a terrible outfielder. Based on number of chances given to field the ball, Chili may be the worst defender in the history of the franchise.
How bad was he? His Defensive Wins Above Replacement was in neagtive territory. How negative? Negative 9.4 dWAR. -9.4 is just a pit from whence it is impossible to climb out. Had Chili just been ensconced as the DH for his entire tenure as an Angel he would certainly rank higher on this list considering his offensive numbers. But the games lost on his watch in the field render him fortunate to be in the top 50.
After spending almost a week with the brightest minds in baseball, here are a few things that I have learned.
Every year in the midst of Winter, the front offices of every major league team comes together to talk baseball. This is the winter meetings that you see on MLB Network and ESPN. There is an entire different side of the meetings that rarely garner much attention. For one, you have about 400 people there with the sole intention of getting their foot in the door in the business of baseball. Be it as a play-by-play broadcaster, promotional manager or just a salesman, they all have the same goal of gaining employment of one of the 160 minor league teams. This was my intention going into the week. You also have the business side of the game with the Baseball Trade Show. Here is my account of my time spent in Orlando at the Winter Meetings.
The Job Fair
The PBEO Job Fair is run by some great people whose sole job is to find us job seekers employment in affiliated baseball. They set everything up on location and make sure things run like clockwork. They also did a great job of informing those of us who were there for the first time how everything is done. The first thing you do is the Business of Baseball Workshop. It was an all day event that started at 8:15 AM and ran until 4:30 PM. They bring in some of the best in minor league baseball to speak with us on a variety of topics. It ran the gamut from preparing for our interviews to how to how everyone got their start.
The emcee of the day was the President of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, Rob Crain. He was informative while keeping everyone entertained with his hilarious stories. Speakers included Lee Folger, President and Publisher of Baseball America; Giovanni Hernandez, Manager of International Baseball Ops for MLB; Pat O'Conner, President and CEO of Minor League Baseball; and Todd Parnell, VP and COO for the Richmond Flying Squirrels. Each spoke on different topics but a few themes stayed true. Working for a minor league team, you don't sell the game of baseball, you sell the experience of a minor league game; You always represent the company, 24/7; Put yourself out there and don't be shy.
After the workshop they opened up the Job Posting room where about 250 jobs were posted on cork boards. One posting was for an Assistant GM gig for a short season team in the Northeast. Another for a Midwest League team listed job responsibilities including cleaning bathrooms, the seating areas and concourses. For that lovely job, you were able to be paid $750 per month. In addition to those duties, you would also be tasked with helping the sales department by selling season tickets or advertising.
This was a common theme which was stressed to us in the initial workshop. No matter what position you are seeking with a minor league club, you will be selling, no matter your job description is. I definitely did not realize this coming into it. My situation was a bit different. I was looking for positions in which I could help my writing career. Luckily, there were about four of these available. Unfortunately 25% of my opportunities required the knowledge of Japanese, which I am completely unqualified for.
Once a job seeker found a position they liked and were hopefully qualified for, it was time for the waiting game. Every 30 minutes Monday through Wednesday, new jobs were posted in the Job Posting room and the Interview Room was updated. The Interview Posting Room was similar to the Job Posting room. Instead of jobs, the teams chose their potential candidates and allowed them to sign up for a time to interview. Interviews were either done in a sectioned off part of the ballroom or were done somewhere in the hotel. All this was done at the Swan Resort, while all the team executives were over in the Dolphin Resort.
From Monday through Wednesday, prospective job hunters could either wait in the workroom next to the Interview Posting Room or wander the resorts meeting people from all walks of baseball. I did a little of both, mingling with other job seekers and meeting some of the biggest names in baseball. In my earlier post while I was there, I mentioned getting to meet Peter Gammons, Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman. Each of them gave me great advice about breaking into the industry. Mr. Gammons (surprise!) gave me the best advice though, telling me that no matter what, always keep writing. Just like in baseball, if you have the talent and are willing to put in the hard work, people will take notice and you will get to where you want to be.
The Baseball Trade Show
Along with the Job Fair, the Baseball Trade Show kicked off Monday night. Men and women from all over the country come together to network and show off their newest and greatest products. Baseball bats, apparel, netting, even novelty helmet cups were being shown off in hopes of landing a contract with a team. One of the coolest things I saw was the HitTrax system. HitTrax is an indoor baseball simulator that you can read more about by clicking here. Among other really cool things were the FreeHand Stadium Trays. They are a "...corrugated box concession tray which allows for a painter's palette grip with the thumb hole, which is strategically placed to allow for greater space on the tray and greater load carrying and balance..." as described by Larry Mack of FreeHands.
While checking out all the goodies, I came across the Tucci Lumber booth and had a chance to meet former Yankees catcher Jim Leyritz and the owner Pete Tucci. I also met Kevin Gnacinski, the Head Lathe Operator for BWP Bats, who can make you a bat to your exact specifications for a VERY reasonable price. It was good to see Leyritz back working in baseball again after reading his book Catching Heat.
All in all it was a great experience to take in. Most of the people I met were very nice and approachable. I do want to give a shout out to Letty at Louisville Slugger real quick for being an awesome dude. He bought me drinks all night and introduced me to countless folks in the industry. There's a certain amount of nervousness that happens when you meet in person someone you've only read online and seen on TV. More so when you meet a living legend like Peter Gammons, Curt Schilling or Billy Beane. I was able to do all this and wouldn't trade this experience for anything. Wallet-permitting, I hope to make the trip next year when they host it on the other side of the country, San Diego. Even if you are not trying to get into baseball as a job, just going and hanging out in the lobby and by the bars is an experience you can't get anywhere else. Well, not until next year...
Roberts once said he would like to be a life-long Oriole, but has decided to leave Baltimore for their AL East rivals.
The New York Yankees have reached a deal with free agent second baseman Brian Roberts that will see him earn at least $2 million for one year, reports Jon Morosi of Fox Sports. There are incentives worked into the deal that may raise his salary.
Roberts, 36, has spent his entire 13-year career as a member of the AL East with the Baltimore Orioles. He was once one of the top second baseman in baseball, utilizing his speed and gap power to consistently be near the top of the rankings in steals and doubles while also playing excellent defense.
However, in recent years, Roberts has barely been able to show he can still play. Injuries have allowed him to appear in only 192 games over the last four seasons as he has suffered through a herniated disc, an abdominal strain, a concussion, a groin strain, a hip injury, and a ruptured tendon in his knee.
His 77 games in 2013 were his most since 2009. He hit .249/.312/.392 with three stolen bases and eight home runs last year. The Orioles had shown interest in re-signing him to begin the season as their starting second baseman while also mentoring top prospect Jonathan Schoop.
The Yankees missed out on their top two choices at second base this offseason. Incumbent Robinson Cano signed a $240 million deal with the Mariners that New York refused to match while Omar Infante, to whom the Yankees offered a three-year contract, signed a four-year deal with the Royals.
If healthy, Roberts should be a useful if unspectacular player for the Yankees. He is certainly no longer the key piece he once was, but can hold his own at the plate and is a cheap replacement for a New York squad trying to stay under a $189 million payroll in an effort to avoid the luxury tax. A one-year deal will also allow the Yankees to look for a better option next offseason, though it figures to be a weak free agent class at second base. Ben Zobrist and Rickie Weeks appear to be the top available players at the position next year.
No word yet on whether the Yankees are looking to cannibalize Roberts for parts to keep shortstop Derek Jeter working for one more year. Given both men's injury woes, there may not be enough working limbs to form one healthy player.
Just four years ago, Ackley was the second overall pick of the 2009 draft. His stock has fallen quickly since then, but could he be a good buy-low candidate for the Yankees at second base?
Note: I wrote this before last night's news of Brian Roberts likely signing with the Yankees. It would still not be a bad move for the Yankees to pursue Ackley, especially since Roberts will probably get hurt eating flapjacks this morning.
The Seattle Mariners currently have three second basemen on their roster who have arguments to be legitimate starters on a major league team. One is Dustin Ackley. One is Nick Franklin. The third is Robinson Cano. It will truly be a magical mystery tour to discover who the Mariners will pick to be their second baseman next year, but just in case they gamble with Door #3, they will have much less of a need to retain Ackley and/or Franklin.
Just a month ago, it would have seemed crazy to conceive the notion that the Mariners and Yankees could swap second basemen, the possibility might very well come to pass. The Mariners might be more willing to deal Ackley away than Franklin, since the latter just went through his first year in the majors and finished with a 96 OPS+, two-win season, which is just fine for a rookie. Cano is taking his job and fellow rookie Brad Miller played quite well at shortstop, Franklin's other position, but the Mariners might be more willing to do some creative work to keep him in the fold since his stock is currently higher than Ackley's. (That or include him in a trade package for a better return than what Ackley would likely bring. Regardless, Franklin's trade target post is for another day.)
Ackley was picked by the Mariners just after the Washington Nationals selected Stephen Strasburg with the first pick of the 2009 draft. The 58-101 Mariners of '08 inexplicably swept their final series of the season while the 59-99 Nationals dropped got swept by the Phillies; it took somewhat incredible odds for the Mariners to not end up with Strasburg. Nonetheless, few saw their selection of UNC center fielder Dustin Ackley as a bad consolation prize at all. They decided to convert him to second base (and after briefly seeing his arm in center this year, they were wise to do so), and Baseball America declared him the 11th-best prospect baseball entering the 2010 season. He started that year in Double-A and just 14 months later, he found himself in the major leagues.
Ackley's rookie year was just about ideal for Mariners management. He hit line drives like crazy, impressing at the plate with a .273/.348/.417 triple slash, a 117 wRC+. In the field, he was above average at second base, and ultimately generated 2.9 fWAR and 3.7 rWAR. He earned some scant AL Rookie of the Year votes despite only appearing in 90 games, and the Mariners' future looked bright at second.
Then came the next year and a half, a complete nightmare for Ackley in which he went from future All-Star to cannon fodder. He was miserable all year long in 2012 with a .226/.294/.328 triple slash and a 75 wRC+; for Yankee fan comparison's sake, that is a figure only slightly better than Vernon Wells's 2013 wRC+. Things somehow got worse for Ackley during the first two months of 2013, when he hit .205/.266/.250 in 45 games. With Ackley's game in shambles and Franklin crushing the competition in Triple-A Tacoma, the Mariners had to pull the plug on Ackley. They sent him down to work on his approach at the plate, and he was gone for about a month. When he returned, it didn't take him long to catch fire, and he hit .285/.354/.404 in 68 games for the rest of season. Ackley just seemed to get better as the season progressed, a stretch highlighted by a .390/.420/.597 month of August. Overall, his 2013 numbers were worse than they were in 2012, but his second-half adjustments helped him reclaim some of his dignity. Ackley will only be turning 26 in February. He still has plenty of time to turn his career around. Should the Yankees be interested since they need a second baseman? Did the first half or the second half of 2013 represent the real Ackley?
At Lookout Landing, new head honcho Scott Weber noted that the lefty had fallen into a bad habit of rolling over pitches and sending meek grounders toward second. Weber also suggested that Ackley was watching too many borderline pitches go by for strikes when he could have been a little bit more aggressive at the plate in order to perhaps slash the ball the opposite way. At USS Mariner, old Lookout Landing head honcho and current FanGraphs scribe Jeff Sullivan did some research and determined that surprisingly, Ackley's plate discipline statistics from 2011-13 were almost identical to those posted by Mike Trout during the same timeframe. Curiously, Sullivan noted that the whole problem might very well have been psychological:
The important thing is that Dustin Ackley has been hitting. He’s been spraying line drives and hitting balls to gaps, and yesterday he finally sent a ball over a fence. People who know about this stuff have pointed out some improved swings, and Ackley himself says he’s feeling more confident...
What’s maybe most interesting is how the improvement is mostly psychological. Ackley has admitted he wasn’t ready to hit before, and now he’s feeling more like himself. This season, we don’t observe big changes in his swing rates. Ackley hasn’t gone from being passive to being aggressive, not outwardly, not in the numbers. Though he’s swung more in the second half, he’s also seen more pitches in the zone than any other Mariner in the second half, and that’ll lift a guy’s swing rate. You’re not going to figure out Dustin Ackley by examining his plate-discipline statistics.
...earlier this season Ackley’s confidence hit a professional low. His confidence pretty much mirrored Tom Wilhelmsen’s, and as difficult a concept as that is to analyze, confidence is one of the most fundamental components of on-field success. Enough smart players have said as much, to smart people. Now Ackley’s confidence is returning, and with a tweaked swing, he’s generating numbers that aren’t pathetic.
As both Sullivan and Weber concluded, it's far too soon to say that Ackley is "fixed" at the plate. If the Yankees do decide to trade for Ackley, it will be a gamble. That's assured.
However, it will be a gamble that probably won't cost the Yankees too much. The Mariners don't really have to play the "keep rolling the dice on Ackley" game. They could keep trying Ackley in the outfield like they did in the second half of 2013, but he's not a good defensive outfielder and he's likely never going to be an overpowering enough hitter to make up for these defensive shortcomings. He is a fine defensive second baseman though, and if the Yankees think that perhaps a change of scenery would do Ackley's hitting well like it did for Paul O'Neill getting out of Cincinnati 21 years ago, then there's no harm in trying him at second base given the current dearth of options. Moving to Yankee Stadium as a lefty after three years at Safeco Field couldn't hurt the ol' confidence too much, either.
If the cost is minimal, then Ackley could turn out to be a savvy buy-low acquisition. If he disappoints again, the Yankees have no emotional attachment to him, so they could just drop him. Either way, Jack Z. and Brian Cashman are no strangers to trade talks, They should collaborate again to give a fallen prospect a new beginning.
Update
Source says of #Yankees' inquiry on #Mariners' Ackley: "No traction there."
Reports are that the Yankees are still extremely interested in the Japanese ace. How does that interest translate into cold hard cash?
It seemed to be the longest running baseball soap opera not starring Alex Rodriguez, but MLB and NPB finally unveiled their newly revamped posting system. And in spite of initial protests from Masahiro Tanaka's current team , the Rakuten Golden Eagles, it appears that Tanaka will actually end up being posted. With the new more competitive nature of the posting process the Yankees won't have the advantage of overwhelming Rakuten with an enormous, luxury tax independent posting fee to negotiate with Tanaka exclusively and should face stiff competition for the pitcher's services.
So with the conditions for acquiring Tanaka finally set, the question becomes just how far the Yankees are willing to go to add him to the franchise. Much of the initial appeal of signing Tanaka was going to be the Yankees ability to defer much of his total cost to his posting fee and work under the 189 million dollar ceiling. Now, the Yankees have to forego any delusions of working with "Plan 189" if they're going to acquire Tanaka. Early estimates have his eventual contract nearing an AAV of 20 million dollars, which would more than shoot the team past the luxury threshold. Alex Rodriguez getting any sort of suspension could change that, but I sincerely hope the Yankees are not counting on those ongoing and incredibly convoluted proceedings as part of their financial planning.
So there's no added value to signing Tanaka. It's not like Yu Darvish's situation where the exorbitant posting fees resulted in Texas ending up with an incredibly underpaid asset. Tanaka is going to paid like he's one of the better pitchers in the league while being totally unproven at the MLB level. Unfortunately, the Yankees don't have much of a choice. They have (at least) one large hole in their rotation for 2014 and much of their in-house 30 and under pitching talent has question marks, be they health-related or otherwise. When you don't have rock solid internal options, you have to take chances by ponying up some hefty money for outside elite talent. And Tanaka is just that sort of talent.
With a lot of teams willing and able to take on the new, nominal posting fee the pursuit of Tanaka is liable to get incredibly crowded. But with the Yankees apparently opting to pass on the crop of other free agent starting pitchers, Tanaka becomes an imperative. The team opted to draw the line with Robinson Cano, but they shouldn't here. Open up the checkbook and go as high as you need to go to obtain Masahiro Tanaka. The initial inclination is that the team is going do what it takes to bring Tanaka to New York, so I'm going to err on the side of optimism. With the departure of Cano, it's much harder to just assume the Yankees will just throw bags of money at a great player but I still believe restraint is not yet the law of the land in the empire. It's going to be difficult to consider the offseason a success if they lose out on this superstar as well.
Boone Logan has gone on to sign a three-year, $16.5 million contract with the Rockies, leaving the Yankees lacking a left-handed specialist for their bullpen. In Matt Thornton they have hopefully found his replacement.
Yankees have signed lefty reliever Matt Thornton to a 2-year deal. He will make $3.5 million each season.
Thornton has a 3.53 ERA and 3.41 FIP over his 10-year career with a good strikeout rate (9.22 K/9), but a worrisome walk rate (3.58 BB/9). He also has a good home run rate (0.76 HR/9) and ground ball rate ( 47.8%), reaching over 50% in the last two seasons. Where he starts to get into trouble is when you look into his splits against right-handed and left-handed hitters. Against lefties, he's lights out with a 2.73 FIP and a very effective 11.32 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9. But against righties, he has a 3.94 FIP with an unimpressive 7.57 K/9 and 4.12 BB/9. Basically what it means is that he needs to be kept away from right-handed hitters.
The Yankees needed to strengthen their bullpen, and now they have for the next two years, but really just against lefties. They still need to add a right-handed reliever who can be a strength in the back of the bullpen. It's possible that Cesar Cabral or Vidal Nuno could serve as a second lefty at some point, but Thornton has the job locked down.
He's the new LOOGY in town and signing him through his age-37 and 38 seasons at $7 million could make him a bargain replacement over Logan. But there's concerns about his loss in velocity ruining his ability to get batters to swing and miss. It's not a big one-year gamble, but a second could prove troublesome.
