Thornton, 36, is a one-time All Star, having been named to the AL squad in 2010, a year in which he posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while striking out 12 batters per nine innings. However, since that sterling year his numbers have gotten worse with each passing season.
That came to a head in 2013, when Thornton had his worst season statistically since 2007. Over 60 games split between the White Sox and Red Sox, he posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, with a career-worst 6.2 K/9. Furthermore, the left-hander is looking more and more like a LOOGY going forward. Against right-handers in 2013, he allowed an 827 OPS versus lefties hitting for a 638 OPS.
The Yankees lost two of their top relievers from 2013 as Mariano Rivera retired and Boone Logan left for a big deal with the Rockies. Furthermore, until Tuesday the Yankees had been missing a left-handed veteran presence in their bullpen. Cesar Cabral pitched well over eight games in his first taste of the majors last year while David Huff struggled in more of a long-relief role.
Thornton's new contract will be split evenly by year, meaning he will earn $3.5 million in both 2014 and 2015.
To fill in their vacant hole at second base, the Yankees signed, not Omar Infante, not Mark Ellis, but Brian Roberts, a man who has played in less games over the last three years (133), than Robinson Cano played in 2013 alone (160). This was the Yankees' big signing to fill in for what they lost. A league-average switch-hitter, who, of course, can't hit lefties (92 wRC+) and hasn't been worth over 1.0 WAR since 2010. Of course this is who the Yankees signed.
At the very, very least, you can say they got him at a bargain. He signed a one-year, $2 million contract, but will likely spend most of the 2014 season on the disabled list. You don't believe me? I'll show you:
In 2010, Roberts got as far as April 9, before he suffered an abdominal strain and missed 84 games, returning by July 23. It was a season marked with plenty of injury, as he suffered a herniated disc in spring training, missed time with a hip strain, and then went down with a concussion.
In 2011, his season was over by May 16, missing 122 games after suffering a second concussion. He didn't return until June 12, 2012 and then his season ended by July 1 when he needed labrum surgery on his right hip, costing him another 84 games. In 2013, he lasted four days before he needed to undergo surgery to fix a hamstring tendon, missed 79 games, and then came back on June 30.
opposing GM calls Roberts "#Yankees Hafner signing" injured guy with big ability if healthy saves $ for pitching
The biggest problem is that when he's finally healthy and able to produce, he hasn't been very good. In 192 games, Roberts has hit only .246/.310/.359 since 2010. He was a slightly above-average hitter over the four years before the injuries started, but that's when he was in his late-20's to early-30's, now he's 36 and unlikely to do much better.
This is just another in a long line of oft-injured bargain signings that end up being a flop. Nick Johnson was signed in 2010 and played until May 7 before he needed wrist surgery. Eric Chavez came in 2011 and missed 72 games between May 5 and July 26 after he broke his foot. He missed only a few games in 2012 between a concussion and back injury, but the Yankees got lucky there.
Feeling like these signings were working out so well, Brian Cashman decided to double down in 2013 and rely heavily on Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner. Youk was gone by April 20 due to a bulging disc, returned for one game, reaggrevated the injury, and didn't return until June 1. By the 13th he needed season-ending back surgery, missing a total of 111 games. Hafner surprisingly lasted much longer, though injury may have hampered his effectiveness. He struggled with shoulder tendonitis in May, but then was gone by July 26 with a rotator cuff strain, only returning for the last game of the season.
It seems like Brian Roberts will just be the next to be added to the large pile of bones out back. There's nothing wrong with making high-risk signings, but you can't depend on them. The Yankees seem to think you have to. Johnson and Hafner were expected to be the full-time DH, Chavez was meant to backup Alex Rodriguez, Youkilis was supposed to be the starting third baseman. Now Roberts is supposed to be the, what, starting second baseman? That should turn out well.
There's always a loophole if you look hard enough...
The Rakuten Golden Eagles could potentially get much more money for posting Masahiro Tanaka than the $20 million release fee if they employ the "package deal" tactic often used in Latin America, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America.
While there is absolutely no word that this option is on the table, Badler speculates that the Golden Eagles could rectify their discontent with the new posting fee cap by packaging Tanaka along with another, less-coveted Japanese player in order to get a larger return.
In the scenario Badler proposes, Rakuten would allow Tanaka and another Eagles player to be posted under the orders that Tanaka will only sign with an MLB club if the other player is given a contract as well. The deal for the secondary player could be as little as the league minimum, but his release fee would be considerably more, allowing Rakuten to net much more than the $20 million they'd get from sending Tanaka stateside alone.
The key cog in these dealings would be a fourth party, an agent, who would be aligned with the interests of Rakuten, Tanaka, and the other player. This agent would ensure that Tanaka doesn't agree to a deal until the second player is signed, which ensures that Rakuten receives two release fees. The total wouldn't come close to the $60 million or so that the club was hoping to get before the posting rules changed, but it would net them as much as $40 million.
According to Badler, this type of deal is carried out in Latin America "all the time, for a variety of reasons," so it may not be so far-fetched a scenario here. Circumventing the new posting system probably wouldn't be the best way to christen the three-year deal between MLB and NPB, but Rakuten has been fairly steadfast in their stance that the current cap is unfair to Japanese clubs.
Another potential way for Rakuten to recoup more than the agreed upon $20 million, per Badler, is to make an agreement with Tanaka that adds caveats to his posting. For instance, the club could tell Tanaka that they'll post him, but only if he agrees to pay them a certain percent of his MLB contract once he's stateside.
Tanaka, 25, has been sitting in posting limbo for much of the offseason. The young right-hander has made it known that he wants to pitch in the U.S. in 2014, but Rakuten has not made a final decision about whether to allow him to do so. The club has two years of control remaining over Tanaka, so if they decide not to post him, it's possible he'll stay in Japan through the 2015 season.
Per MLB calculations, the Dodgers had the second-highest payroll in baseball in 2013, less than $150,000 shy of the Yankees.
The Dodgers last week got hit with a competitive balance tax bill for the first time, and will have to pay roughly $11.4 million for their 2014 payroll, per the Associated Press.
The limit to avoid paying tax in 2013 was $178 million. The Dodgers payroll came in at $236,872,242, per the AP, just shy of the Yankees, who at $237,018,889 had the highest payroll in baseball for the 15th consecutive season.
But for purposes of the tax, the Dodgers payroll was roughly $243 million, higher than the Yankees.
Payroll figures include the average annual value of all players on the 40-man roster, plus any bonuses earned or cash payments sent or received (the Dodgers received $3.9 million in 2013 from the Red Sox as part of the Punto Trade, for instance), plus a 1/30th share of the player benefit costs, reported by the AP at $10.8 million per team.
Note: The disparity between the Dodgers' payroll figure for tax purposes and the payroll worksheet is that I track actual payments made each season. For purposes of the tax, Hyun-Jin Ryu's bid fee of $25.7 million and dead money to Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones and Hiroki Kuroda, for instance, doesn't count against the tax (the latter three counted against the tax when they were still under contract).
Per the collective bargaining agreement, as first time offenders, the Dodgers pay a tax of 17.5% of anything over $178 million. The Dodgers total bill, per the AP, was $11,415,959.
But the bottom line is that it appears that for the foreseeable future the luxury tax will be an expense for the Dodgers, already factored in as the cost of doing business. The Dodgers have over $198 million committed to 16 players in 2014, and that's without including Juan Uribe, J.P. Howell or the arbitration salaries of Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and A.J. Ellis.
The Dodgers have $121.2 million committed to nine players in 2015 (not including Howell, Uribe or the options of Chad Billingsley, Dan Haren and Brian Wilson), and $122.75 million committed to eight players in 2016.
The limit raises for the next three seasons to $189 million, but the penalties rise for each successive offense. Exceeding the luxury tax threshold a second year in a row draws a 30% tax, a third straight year costs 40%, and every year after costs 50%.
That upper tier is where the Yankees have been for some time, and why there have been rumblings of trying to get under the $189 million threshold for 2014. If New York can get under the number just one time, their next trip over the limit would reset their penalty back to 17.5% rather than their current rate of 50%. The Yankees, per the AP report, have a tax bill of $28 million for 2013.
The Yankees and Dodgers were the only teams to exceed the $178 million limit this season.
Per the CBA, the luxury tax bill is due to be paid to the commissioner's office by January 21.
Masahiro Tanaka wants to play baseball at the highest level next year. Though his club, the Rakuten Eagles, has put on a full-court press in an effort to change his mind, he remains steadfast—and most agree that he will be posted.
It isn't as if the Eagles are choosing between the almost-laughable $20 million release fee and nothing. They have him signed for two more years, and there's reason to think that he could fetch the same $20 million next year, after an attempt by the Eagles to defend their crown. In addition, the beloved "Mā-kun" means a lot to the Eagles' supporters, many of whom are still reeling from the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan's Tohoku region, where the club is based.
But, again, most assume that when the Eagles' decision comes in—and it is expected to come soon—they will post Tanaka and give him the opportunity to compete against the top ballplayers in the world. Reports are even coming in now that he will indeed be posted.
As you're likely aware, Masahiro Tanaka was a key part—or, the biggest part—of the offseason plan published on this site back at the beginning of November. Internally, nothing has changed—we all still strongly believe the Mariners should make a serious run at Tanaka. Externally, with the club and the league, much has changed.
And now a Tanaka signing makes more sense than ever.
The biggest reason is the Mariners' current predicament—specifically, they've built a roster that's considerably closer to contending than it was when this offseason began, and it makes even more sense now to spend to add the pieces requisite for true contention.
Standing out, most of all, is the signing of Robinson Cano. Right now, he's one of the 5-10 best position players in the game. As the years go on—and his mega-deal goes from a bargain to an albatross—that rank will slip. While we can hope desperately for a bounce, or at least a late-career plateau, the likelihood remains Robinson Cano has played his best baseball and will get progressively worse every year for the rest of his career. It's a bummer, and I'm holding out hope it isn't true, but even though Cano is starting his inevitable decline at such a lofty point, the Mariners shouldn't waste even a single year of his prime.
This inevitable decay of Cano's value, and the facts behind it, are what makes Tanaka so appealing. He's young, he's good—and he could get better. He's Hisashi Iwakuma with better health and more upside. It makes all the sense in the world for the Mariners to counterbalance some of Cano's decline with potential improvement from Tanaka. It's why Tanaka, despite the Mariners' need for outfielders and hitters, makes more sense than Shin-Soo Choo.
It's unbelievably rare that an elite player reaches free agency before his peak. Of course, every other club with interest in Tanaka and money to spend is thinking the same thing.
And it's the latter issue here that is of the most concern—do the Mariners have the money? And honestly, I don't know why they wouldn't.
Lincoln said the payroll budget for the upcoming season will be higher than what the team budgeted last season. The team budgeted close to $95 million for payroll last season, but only used about $84 million.
“It’s certainly going to be above what we budgeted last year,” Lincoln said. “How much? For competitive purposes, I’m not prepared to say. But it certainly is not going to go down.”
So there’s that.
And payroll should go up, for a number of reasons. But I hope I don't hear that it did if the payroll only ends up in the $95 million range, because that wouldn't be entirely true.
But, on those reasons for the increase: among them, as you could assume, is the cable revenue. At this point, I'll buy what others—and Howard Lincoln in particular—are saying on the recently-signed local cable deal, that the Mariners majority ownership stake in the regional sports network required a sizable investment. But the thing is, there's more than just the RSN money, as new national cable deals go into effect this year with ESPN and Fox/Turner that double the league's national cable revenue—with each club likely seeing an additional $15-25 million.
So if every team is receiving more money and you're keeping the budgeted payroll the same—as the Mariners would do if they ended up around $95-100 million—aren't you effectively lowering it? And if they do that, it grows increasingly more difficult not to wonder where all the new revenue is going.
But, what I've heard from various reporters, is that the Mariners would raise payroll for the right player. Or in other words, payroll has been up, and it just takes the right guy to sign. It's hard to envision a better fit than Tanaka, as Shannon Drayer notes at the end of a piece today:
My best guess is that general manager Jack Zduriencik is getting close to his budget and with multiple needs to fill he cannot sink all of what he has left into one player. There still could be flexibility with ownership, but Zduriencik would have to sell that player to the group. I think he would have a much better shot at selling Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, who with the new agreement in place could be posted soon. They might be willing to take that risk on a younger player, even though he is a pitcher, and they wouldn't be settling. Choo is the best offensive player remaining on the market. Tanaka is arguably the best pitcher period.
So the Mariners might not have enough money to spend. Or they very well could. Of course, if they do decide to spend, that doesn't mean they'll automatically land Tanaka. They'll have their competitors, but there's no reason to think they can't spend enough to make a lot of the teams uncomfortable.
Most have assumed that the Yankees have been waiting for Tanaka, and their latest dives into the bargain bin for relief and infield help sure make it seem that way, but Passan reports today that their internal luxury tax count—even without Alex Rodriguez's money—takes them all the way to $178 million.
Heyman says they're still going to try, but I don't see how they could make it work and stay under the luxury tax. They could blow right by it, but if they don't, they can't sign Tanaka. The new posting system hurts them more than any MLB team, as the original plan was likely to put in an exorbitant posting fee bid (not counted against the tax) and then work out a contract that fits under the $189 million limit. But now, it's free agency with a buy-in, and the AAV of Tanaka's deal—the figure that counts against the tax—will certainly be above the $11 million the Yankees supposedly have to work with.
The Yankees, of course, are far from the only suitor—and there's the one club out there to which money supposedly doesn't mean a thing. Or does it? According to a recent report, the Dodgers have interest in Tanaka but " won't take a win-at-all-costs approach in their pursuit of him."
Then, of course, you have everyone like us—there may be money to spend, but no one knows for sure. The Cubs, for example, have been said to be a potential major player. Theo Epstein has even been quoted as saying "We wish there was a free-agent market for young players," and Tanaka's timeline fits more with theirs than any other available player. So, this may negate Theo also saying "We're not ready to make a big splash," but it very well may not.
But here's why I'm optimistic with the other clubs that have been waiting, and planning their offseason's around Tanaka: if other clubs have to plan their offseasons around Tanaka, they have restraints. There may be levels of variance in those restraints, but you'd have to assume they're there.
The Mariners, if they're smart, should have no such restraints. The projected revenue is there, and even if the cash isn't right this moment, it should be very soon. It's smart to be reasonable with money, but outbidding everyone on Tanaka—a potentially-elite pitcher just entering his prime—is reasonable.
The Mariners' roster has holes, undoubtedly. And Tanaka doesn't immediately take the Mariners to contender status—but boy, you're getting close. The Mariners have shown they're willing to spend the money required to add a top free agent. But if they don't do it again, if don't they continue to add this roster, then it's all for naught.
It feels absurd to say, but also incredible: the time is now for the Mariners.
Here's your chance to get close to your favorite Indians player for the next 365 days
Baseball-Reference has a banner ad near the top of every player and team page on the site. When you go to almost any of those pages, you see an ad from one of the site's major sponsors, but if you look closely, you'll see that each of those ad spaces is for sale, to anyone who's willing to pony up the cost (you'll see that some of those spaces have already been purchased, in which case you'll also see the expiration date for that sponsorship).
The cost is determined by some sort of page-view algorithm, so the prices for different pages vary greatly, with some being as inexpensive as $5 (for a full year!), and other costing well over $1,000 (the most-expensive player page I found during a few minutes spent browsing was that of Alex Rodriguez, currently selling for $2,225).
I was curious to know how much various Indians' pages are going for, and here's what I found:
Jason Giambi leads the way by a comfortable margin, his pages is selling for $590. While it makes sense that better players' pages would go for more money, because people are more likely to check on stars than on Joe Shlabotnik, but I hadn't considered for much of an impact a player's former stardom would have on their price.
Second on the list (also by a very clear margin) is Nick Swisher, whose page is at $340. My guess is some of that is still residual traffic to his page from his days with the Yankees, though maybe his Ohio connections really do make him just that popular with Tribe fans.
From there players begin to cluster together. Michael Bourn is at #3, for $195, followed by Danny Salazar at #4, for $185. The electric stuff he displayed in his best games, along with him starting the Wild Card Game probably sent a lot of people to find out more about him. Jason Kipnis rounds out the top five, selling for $170.
The Tribe's new closer John Axford is 6th, at a price of $160, followed by Asdrubal Cabrera in 7th at $145. Justin Masterson and Yan Gomes tie for 8th place, each selling for $130. Then there's Trevor Baue, going for $125 and landing in 10th place.
Poor Carlos Santana finds yet another avenue in which to be under-appreciated, missing out on the top ten entirely, despite being one of the team's two best players. He's at $110, same as newcomer David Murphy, and behind Ryan Raburn, who seems expensive for a bench player at $115. Drew Stubbs is the only other player in triple figures, selling right at $100.
I happen to think that buying a friend or family member's page for them makes for a pretty cool holiday gift, especially if the friend or family member would ever go to Baseball-Reference (though if you're spending money on a gift for someone at Baseball-Reference, a yearlong subscription to their Play Index is the best way to go). You can write whatever message you want in the ad:
"Sam McDowell was one of the greatest strikeout pitchers in baseball history, and my father John Stewart's boyhood hero. Here's to all the great stories I've heard about "Sudden Sam" through the years, and the Indians fandom I've been lucky enough to inherit. Merry Christmas, Dad!"
I think that's a pretty snazzy way to spend $45 on your old man.
Here are the priciest former (and retired) Indians:
No one else who spent something like half their career or more with the Tribe costs more than $75.
You could also purchase the team page for a particular season. the priciest is 2013 ($875), because of course far more people look at the current year than any other. Next up is 1995 ($120), followed by 2012 ($75), 1997 ($65), 2007 ($60), and 1954 ($55). No other season costs more than $45, and once you get back before the mid 1980s, most seasons cost $15 or less.
You could put your name on the World Champion 1920 Cleveland Indians page for only $25!
The only Tribe pages I came across that are already spoken for are Tris Speaker, Vinnie Pestano, and the 1948 and 1975 teams. Everything else is there to be had!
Today's links look at why the Red Sox shouldn't wait to extend a couple of core players, the booming talent in the farm system, and one less option on the outfield market.
There has been talk over the past couple of years about a bridge to the next great Red Sox core. Well, it may finally be time for those players to start making an impact. (John Tomase; Boston Herald)
Jeff Sullivan looks at how teams tend to perform after losing a star-caliber player, something the Yankees will be dealing with after seeing Robinson Cano bolt to Seattle. (Jeff Sullivan; Fangraphs)
The Red Sox made a minor move yesterday, bringing Japanese pitcher Shunsuke Wantanabe into the organization, while releasing Chris Carpenter to go play in Japan. (ESPN Boston)
ESPN: The Yankees have been hit with a $28 million luxury tax penalty for the 2013 season.
Baseball America | Ben Badler: Masahiro Tanaka formally requested that he be posted by his Japanese team, but the Golden Eagles are still trying to convince him to stay.
Matt Thornton signed with the New York Yankees yesterday, but the San Diego Padres were one of the many teams interested. Imagine the world if Thornton was a Padre.
Honestly, it wouldn't have been a bad pick-up. Of course, the San Diego Padres are starting to get a little heavy on pitching (assuming they landJoaquin Benoit), so signing Matt Thornton may have come as a surprise. Instead, he signed with the New York Yankees. San Diego was very much in on Thornton says Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, and considering Josh Byrnes' fascination with the bullpen this offseason, it's surprising they didn't land him. Then again, when there are so many balls up in the air, it's hard to tell which one will be caught.
Thornton signed a two-year, $7 million deal with the Yankees. A multi-year deal might be surprising for a 37-year-old reliever, but Thonrton has been successful for most of his career. In fact, he has only had three seasons in which his ERA was higher than 4.00. Last season, Thornton split time between the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox. He finished the year with a 3.74 ERA. In 10 Major League seasons, the lefty has a 3.53 ERA.
So, what if San Diego landed him? What would that mean for a player like Patrick Schuster? What would that mean for the team's pursuit of Benoit? Without the context behind WHEN the Padres were interested in Thornton it's difficult to understand the plan. It's very possible that the Padres had begun their pursuit of Thornton before they landed Schuster. That would make a bit more sense. At the time, they were still in need of a left-handed specialist. Thornton certainly fits that LOOGY role. However, after picking up Schuster in a trade with the Houston Astros for Anthony Bass, the need for someone like Thornton drastically declined.
The pursuit of Thornton likely had and would not have had (if they got him) any effect on the club's interest in Benoit. Benoit will be used as a set-up man to Huston Street if the Padres sign him. He's not a specialist outside of that set-up or closer role. Signing Thornton would only have strengthened the bullpen behind guys like Benoit and Street.*
*It's funny, I've talked about Benoit so much recently that it feels like he's already on the team. At this point, I'm going to be pretty disappointed if the Pads don't sign him!
Had San Diego picked up Thornton before they traded Bass for Schuster, would the team be in a better position? Financially, it would have cost them more than I can imagine they'd be willing to give up. A LOOGY at $3.5 million is an expensive investment. Schuster comes at league minimum, but he also cost the Padres a potential starter. Quite honestly, San Diego is probably better served spending $3.5 million in house or on a position player or pitcher who is not a specialist.
One of the more interesting things to come out of this news, to me, is how active San Diego actually has been this offseason. A lot of the deals did not come through, but that's the way it works. It's impressive that the Padres' brass has been able to keep much of their negotiations under wraps for so long with the sheer number of leaks these days (and believe me, I love leaks. I need leaks!). There will surely be more to come from San Diego this winter. Could be the Benoit deal, could be something else. But just don't think San Diego isn't doing anything.
Which dinger was more memorable in Yankees history?
The Pinstripe Alley Top Moments Tournament enters the second round of the 1960-1979 bracket. Vote for the moment that deserves to move on in the poll below.
(#1) Maris sets single-season home run record
One of the greatest records in sports, not just in baseball, is the single-season home run record. For 34 years, this incredible feat was held by Babe Ruth, as the Sultan of Swat swatted 60 home runs in 1927. The record he had broke that year was previously his own when he hit 59 in 1921. Fast forward to October 1, 1961 on an afternoon in the Bronx against the Boston Red Sox. With the game scoreless in the bottom of the fourth, Roger Maris stepped up to the plate and blasted a Tracy Stallard pitch into the right field stands to give the slugger his 61st, and record-breaking, home run of the season.
Maris' record-breaking home run, in fact, came on the final game of the season. The 1961 season also featured an intense home run race between Maris and his teammate, Mickey Mantle, who ended up hitting 54 home runs that season himself. Overall, Maris finished the season with a .269/.372/.620 batting line with a Major-League-leading 141 RBI and 132 runs scored to go along with those 61 homers. Maris' incredible '61 campaign also netted him his second consecutive Most Valuable Player award by edging out his teammate, Mickey Mantle, by just three points for the award.
For some, Roger Maris' 61 home runs is still considered to be the "true and clean single-season home run record" given the Steroid Era which produced monster single-season home run numbers from Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and eventually Barry Bonds. For the record, I, personally, don't consider this to be the case, but that's a completely different topic for another day.
(#4) Reggie Jackson hits three home runs in 1977 World Series, Game 6
The Yankees could have ended the 1977 World Series in five games. They had the Los Angeles Dodgers on the brink of elimination, but the Dodgers were able to win Game 5 at a score of 10-4, tagging Don Gullett for six earned runs. The Yankees came into Game 6 wanting to stop the buck right there--they had no desire to head to a decisive Game 7. Reggie Jackson made sure that that would not be a reality.
Reggie Jackson was acquired that past offseason for this exact purpose. After the Yankees were swept by the Cincinnati Reds in the 1976 World Series, George Steinbrenner wanted to add one more piece to seal the deal. Jackson was signed to a five year, $2.96 million contract ($12.1 million in today's dollars) in hopes that he could help the Yankees win a World Championship.
Jackson began his historic night in the bottom of the fourth inning; the Dodgers at that point had a 3-2 lead. On the first pitch from Burt Hooten, Jackson hit an absolute bomb to right field to put the Yankees ahead 4-3. The Yankees added to their lead to make the score 5-3, and the Dodgers had to bring in reliever Elias Sosa to fan the flames. Jackson swung at only his second pitch of the night and hit a line drive right over the porch in right field to put the Yankees up definitively at 7-3. That would have been enough to win the game and enough to seal his legacy. But that just wasn't Reggie's style. Against the knuckleballer Charlie Hough in the eighth and on just Jackson's third swing all night, he hit his third home run to dead center.
Jackson had tied Babe Ruth's World Series single-game home run record, and more importantly, he had helped the Yankees win their first World Championship since 1962. The Yankees would win again in 1978, but the Bronx would never be in a frenzy like that until 1996.
The Yankees haven't spent much on pitching this off-season. Could they be waiting on a better stocked market next year?
In sharp contrast to their $260 million spending spree on position players this fall, the Yankees have been oddly quiet when it comes to pitching. Outside of re-upping Hiroki Kuroda for a year and bringing on reliever Matt Thornton for two, they've done nothing to address a staff that lost Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera to retirement. Reports say they'll be in on Masahiro Tanaka if and when he's posted, but Major League starters like Matt Garza, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez along with bullpen hurlers Grant Balfour and Joe Nathan have managed to eschew the team's radar.
A look at next year's free agent class for pitchers could explain the Yankees' reluctance to commit big dollars this time around. Though trades, injuries and extensions can rearrange things in a hurry, it looks for now like 2014-2015 will be a market ripe with front line pitching talent.
Among next year's free agent starters, we see a few team options are likely to be exercised. Iwakuma's staying in Seattle, Gallardo will be picked up, at least to be traded, and Cueto, if he can return to good health will be a Red in 2015. We can hope and dream and beg and plead, but It's too early to think seriously about the Yankees' chances at Kershaw. He's in a good situation in Los Angeles, and it's hard to believe that the Dodgers won't make him baseball's first $30 million per year man before he has the chance to talk to anyone else.
Even behind Kershaw, though, there's still a ton of quality to be had. The American League's reigning Cy Young winner, Scherzer is a Scott Boras client and seems likely to test the market rather than extend with Detroit. Boston's never been particularly good at holding onto their guys once they go free agent, which puts Lester squarely in play. Behind those three there's a very healthy second tier which includes the likes of Shields, Masterson and Bailey. If they don't land Tanaka this year, or even if they do, there will be plenty of good opportunities for the Yankees to part with their money next winter.
The most important thing to note about 2014-2015's right-handed reliever class is that David Robertson is the second youngest member of it and also the second best according to his 2013 fWAR. The Yankees should be working on re-signing their hopeful future closer right now. While most teams prefer not to spend huge on bullpen arms these days, there will be considerable competition for a pitcher of Robertson's caliber and consistency.
Behind Robertson, Belisle, Gregerson and Hochevar would all be solid setup choices if the Yankees can't lock down the seventh and eighth with internal options this year.
Quality on next year's LOOGY market is virtually non-existent with Breslow's option a possibility to be exercised if he repeats his 2013 performance. Burnett pitched just 13 games this year and the rest of the group lingers in varying stages of mediocrity. The Yankees have already committed to pay Thornton $3.5 million in 2015 so they're unlikely to shop for another bullpen lefty, especially if Cesar Cabral, Vidal Nuno or Francisco Rondon is able to step up before then.
The Yankees have taken great steps forward this winter, but they have more homework to do.
In 2013, Robinson Cano had one of the 50-best offensive seasons by a New York Yankee as measured by wins above replacement. More realistically, Cano had one of the top 25 seasons by a Yankee not named Ruth, Gehrig, or Mantle -- then decamped to Seattle as a free agent. After a season in which the Yankees saw Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte make graceful departures for retirement and Derek Jeter reach obsolescence, they also lost their best player. Even if their decision not to match the Mariners was made for good sound baseball reasons, it was still a blow.
This was something of a first for the Yankees. If you consider the list, you will note that none of the players abruptly vanished the next year. Many of them declined in subsequent seasons, which was almost inevitable given that if you've just had one of the best seasons in organization history you probably have nowhere to go but down. Still, if you want to view their alternate, less-potent selves as "replacements," the Yankees traded MVPs for All-Stars. The Rickey Henderson of 1986 wasn't a 10-win player, but he was still a 7-win player, which is pretty close to MVP-level in most seasons. The Alex Rodriguez of 2008 was roughly the same, going from approximately nine wins to about seven. With a few exceptions, it wasn't like the player had been taken out behind the barn and shot; they were diminished, not gone. Cano is just gone.
On Tuesday, the Yankees signed Brian Roberts to a one-year contract to play second. In this he may be joined by Kelly Johnson, Brendan Ryan, and perhaps the recently-acquired Padres organizational player Dean Anna. As you are undoubtedly aware, from 2005 to 2009 Roberts was often terrific, hitting .294/.369/.451 with a ton of doubles and stolen bases. An obscure stat of which I am fond: Since 1900, there have been only 90 individual seasons in which a player hit 50 or more doubles. Just a handful have gotten there multiple times:
# of 50-double seasons
5 Times
Tris Speaker
3 Times
Paul Waner, Stan Musial, Brian Roberts, Albert Pujols
2 Times
Nine players
Those days are long gone. Beginning in 2010, Roberts had five stints of the 60-day disabled list for a total of 506 idle days and 436 missed games. The best thing you can probably say about his 2013 is that he lived through it. Otherwise, he missed more than half the schedule, the doubles were gone, the stolen bases were gone. He slugged .450 in September, as much life as he showed all season.
Assuming the pitching staff is consistent, the Yankees need to add about 150 runs over last season to get to 95 wins. Have they done so even with Cano leaving town? This is one of the things we won't know for sure until next October, but we can guess. Using Bill James' runs created, we can look at how many runs each position contributed this year and then take a stab at a reasonable projection for 2014.
I used a combination of past performance and best guesses to come up with these estimates: I figured Brian McCann would get a boost from Yankee Stadium, Mark Teixeira would be healthy but perhaps not as productive as in the recent past, that aggregate production at second base would be mediocre and that the third basemen, whoever they prove to be, would be better than last year (hot death) but a little worse than league average (about .260/.325/.410). I have no idea what to make of shortstop, and I probably erred too much on the side of a strong Derek Jeter encore, not something I really believe will happen. I figured something like consistency for Brett Gardner, a solid season for Jacoby Ellsbury despite the change in ballparks knocking his batting average down some (he was a career .308 hitter at Fenway, .288 everywhere else; perhaps the loss of average will be compensated for with some Yankee Stadium home runs), another good year for Carlos Beltran and his caddies, and some shrinkage for Alfonso Soriano. Perhaps I was too hard on the second basemen, who could be about 10 runs better than the number given here if he approaches league average. It's also possible that 95 wins is too high a standard. Over the last five years it has taken an average of 94 wins to capture the division title, though having the defending champions in the class picture probably means we should think higher and not lower.
Carlos Beltran (Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports)
I have no idea what the third basemen are going to do or even who they're going to be. The Yankees may yet re-sign Mark Reynolds, and for all we know they may have to deal with Alex Rodriguez for all or part of the season. The estimate here is for about 90 percent of the 2013 league average at the position; I figure even if the position is a mess it's going to be hard for them to be as bad as they were this year for a second season in a row.
The 2013 Yankees scored 650 runs; there are a few runs created by pinch-hitters and the like (who had a very good year) not captured here. That's something that tends to regress, so the Yankees will probably need to replace those runs as well. Still, we can throw them another 10 runs just to be generous. That brings us to 750. If you put that together with the 671 runs they allowed and plug both into James' Pythagorean formula for projecting records, you get a winning percentage of .551, or a record of 89-73.
Now, you can argue with any of the estimates above as being too high or too low, or say that the Yankees are going to sign Masahiro Tanaka and thus put in place the staff ace they're currently missing -- assuming CC Sabathia doesn't rebound to his old levels -- thus lowering the number of runs they need to score to win. But we don't know that that's going to happen or how good Tanaka will be if he does come. Moreover, the Yankees lost Andy Pettitte to retirement. He allowed about 10 fewer runs in his 185.1 innings than the average starter did, so for Tanaka to actually reduce their runs allowed, he'd have to be even better than that. You'd expect a guy who just went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA that you spent $20 million just to talk with to be a lot better than a 41-year-old Pettitte, but there's a lot of room for variance just in that statement. All of 20 American League pitchers who qualified for the ERA title had lower ERA than Pettitte, so whether you think his innings are going to fall on Tanaka or Michael Pineda or someone else, as just-okay as Pettitte seemed this year, getting a one-for-one replacement or better is actually a tall order. You could throw Mariano Rivera into this equation; however his 64 innings are absorbed or replaced, chances are that the pitcher(s) in question are going to allow more than 16 runs.
The Yankees have already accomplished one of their goals: The 2014 squad is going to be a heck of a lot more interesting to watch play than the 2013 squad with its endearingly eager but overwhelmed Overbays and Nixes. Assuming health and consistency from the veteran imports, they should be competitive as well, a team that's going to be a tough opponent all season long. But are they good enough to win the AL East? Brian Cashman might have more work to do. The vehicle he and the team's many chefs have built will get him as far as the trading deadline and perhaps even the wild card, but the coveted first-round bye that comes with winning a division title might require further tinkering.
The Yankees offseason has been filled with a lot of debatable signings and contract offers, but there seems to be another that almost happened.
Seeing that Robinson Cano was moving away from signing with them, the Yankees quickly grabbed Jacoby Ellsbury for $153 million over seven years. Once Cano signed with the Mariners, they then offered a contract to Shin-Soo Choo to the tune of $140 million over seven years. Scott Boras, seeing how the Yankees just signed his other client for $13 million more, demanded Choo get the same contract. Hearing this they then pulled the deal and signed Carlos Beltran for $45 million over three years instead. Or so the story goes.
This seems very excessive. I imagine that if Choo said yes they wouldn't have signed Beltran, but it also would have added an extra $5 million per year onto their budget. If the Yankees want to get under the $189 million mark, and all signs seem to indicate that they do, this would have made it even harder for them than it already is. They're practically scraping the roof of their monetary ceiling right now, so that money saved is essentially what got them Matt Thornton and Brian Roberts. If they're only being reactionary, throwing around contracts and then taking them back, it seems obvious that the Yankees don't really have a plan, just as long as they can fill a team at the right price. What if he had accepted?
Scott Boras, who represents Choo, reportedly turned down the deal, saying that his client was seeking "Ellsbury money", i.e. closer to $153 million. The Yankees refused to budge from where they were at and instead signed Carlos Beltran to a $45 million deal, meaning New York is likely no longer an option for Choo. Similarly, the Rangers have reportedly moved on from Choo and are now focusing their efforts on signing Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka if he is posted.
Of course, the Yankees and Rangers are not the only teams to have been in on Choo up to this point. Several teams are rumored to have some deal on the table, including the Houston Astros, who said at the beginning of the offseason that they would raise team payroll. Despite these offers all being on the table, Boras clearly has not seen one that he has been fond of yet.
Choo came into the offseason hoping to sign a similar deal to the seven year, $126 million contract Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals a few years ago. With the way the market has played out, however, it's clear that Boras believes he can get Choo a much sweeter deal.
Choo, 31, is the top player left in free agency at this point. He is coming off arguably the best year of his career as he hit .285/.423/.462 with 21 home runs and 20 stolen bases with the Reds. The Korean star always hovers around 20 homers and steals with outstanding on-base skills and solid defense. Though he played center field in Cincinnati, he profiles best in right field.
Boras will get Choo paid at some point. It may be tough to find someone willing to go beyond the Yankees' previous offer, however.
Cespedes Family BBQ | Top 10 Yankees Shirseys: The most bizarre collection of horrible Yankees shirseys around the Internet, featuring the likes of George Costanza and Eduardo Nunez. Andrew wrote up five of them.
Luke Scott and his trunk of magical costumes won't be making any appearances during extra innings at the Trop this upcoming season, as Scott agreed to a one-year contract with the SK Wyverns of the Korean Baseball Organization yesterday.
The deal is rumored to be for $250,000 with a signing bonus of $50,000, over $200,000 less than the major league minimum.
Offseason injuries, so in right now
Does Dr. James Andrews ever sleep? No, the answer is no.
Sure, Jacoby Ellsbury was the big-name free agent outfielder this offseason. However, the Cardinals snagged Peter Bourjos via trade at a much lower cost, and he might be just as good.
In one of the first moves this offseason, the St. Louis Cardinalsacquired centerfielder Peter Bourjosfrom the Los Angeles Angelsalong with prospect Randal Grichuk for third baseman David Freeseand relief pitcher Fernando Salas. Reactions to the trade were mixed, though most critics liked the deal for the Cardinals. Still, several commentators noted Bourjos' reputation as a glove-first player who might not be able to hit enough to stay in the lineup.
Less than two weeks after the Bourjos-Freese trade, Jacoby Ellsburywent off the market, as the New York Yankeessnatched him up with a seven-year, $153 million deal. While Ellsbury, like Bourjos, has been injury prone, he possesses a reputation as an excellent all-around player. In addition to his elite baserunning and strong defense, his hitting ability including his power production, have been praised.
However, the two centerfielders are a lot closer to being equals than you might think. Here's a comparison of their hitting numbers.
Player
AVG
OBP
SLG
Jacoby Ellsbury
.297
.350
.439
Peter Bourjos
.251
.306
.387
This looks like Ellsbury is the far superior hitter. However, this is where park factors come in. Angel Stadium of Anaheim is a much tougher park than Fenway. After adjusting for this, Ellsbury has a 109 wRC+, while Bourjos has a 96 wRC+. Ellsbury is still on top, but it's a lot closer.
This comparison might not be fair to Bourjos, who is just entering his age-27 season. Here are Ellsbury's hitting numbers through his age-26 season.
Player
AVG
OBP
SLG
Jacoby Ellsbury
.291
.344
.405
That comes out to a 94 wRC+, which is a shade lower than Bourjos' 96. I wouldn't bet on Bourjos hitting 32 home runs at any time in his career, but don't write him off as punchless. He possesses a .146 career ISO, which is higher than Ellsbury's .141 ISO and significantly higher than the .114 ISO Ellsbury posted through his age-26 season.
One of the biggest knocks on Bourjos' offensive game is his poor strikeout and walk rates. While Ellsbury is an excellent contact hitter, striking out in just 12.8 percent of plate appearances, Bourjos has struck out in 22.1 percent of plate appearances while walking in just 5.5 percent.
Furthermore, Bourjos has a career line drive rate of only 14.5 percent, which contributes to his reputation as a slap hitter. Still, the combination of a high ground ball rate and his ability to use his speed to bunt for hits has allowed him to produce a .309 BABIP. He's also an excellent baserunner, so despite his poor offensive reputation, he's come out as four runs above average over his career.
Defense is where Bourjos really shines. Despite missing time due to injuries, he's fourth among outfielders in defense since 2010. He owns a career UZR/150 of 20.2, compared to Ellsbury's 8.0 in centerfield. DRS has a similar love for Bourjos. Sure, there are concerns about the reliability of defensive metrics, but with that rating, we're just quibbling about whether Bourjos is the best centerfielder in baseball or one of the best.
Through his age-26 season, Ellsbury totaled 7.3 fWAR. Bourjos has compiled 9.0 fWAR despite getting nearly 400 fewer plate appearances. Up to this point in his career, Bourjos has been a better ballplayer than Ellsbury was.
But, in the last three years, Ellsbury has been one of the game's best players. Including his monster 2011 season where he hit 32 home runs and totaled 9.1 fWAR, Ellsbury has a .303/.356/.469 line with a 123 wRC+ over the past three seasons. His UZR/150 in center is 13.7, and his 16.3 fWAR is the 10th most in baseball in that span. That comes out to 5.8 fWAR per 600 plate appearances.
Even with his stepped-up performance over the last three years, Bourjos and Ellsbury are a lot closer than you might think. Bourjos has averaged 4.8 fWAR per 600 plate appearances, only a little lower than Ellsbury's peak. Add in Ellsbury's solid but less stellar younger years, and he's averaged 4.4 fWAR per 600 plate appearances.
Finally, let's take a look at how Bourjos and Ellsbury are projected to perform going forward. Since Bourjos is under team control for the next three years, I'll go with that. Here is a nice table containing Ellsbury's Oliver Projections. Both tables are based on a season of 143 games and 600 plate appearances.
Ellsbury
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
Def
WAR
2014
.278
.337
.396
101
4.5
3.3
2015
.277
.336
.390
99
4.5
3.1
2016
.273
.331
.379
95
4.5
2.8
And here is a nice table containing Bourjos' Oliver Projections.
Bourjos
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
Def
WAR
2014
.250
.313
.387
99
17.0
4.2
2015
.249
.313
.382
97
17.0
4.1
2016
.245
.311
.375
95
17.0
3.9
A big issue here is that Oliver doesn't regress the defensive numbers. It's a little ambitious to say Bourjos will continue to churn out +17 seasons in centerfield and Ellsbury should be better than +4.5 in his first season. Still, Oliver thinks they're a lot closer with the bat than you might expect.
Last but not least, here's a table with the Steamer projections for 2014.
Player
PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
Def
WAR
Ellsbury
662
.276
.334
.417
104
6.9
3.8
Bourjos
486
.254
.311
.397
99
6.4
2.3
Steamer doesn't think as highly of Bourjos' defense going forward, but it too thinks the players are comparable offensively. If you take the average of the Oliver and Steamer defensive projections for Bourjos you get a player that is Ellsbury's equivalent on a rate basis.
Ignore the narratives, Peter Bourjos isn't a poor man's Jacoby Ellsbury. He's certainly poorer than Ellsbury, but they're baseball players of very similar quality.
Chris Moran is a former college baseball player and current law student at Washington University in St. Louis. He's also an assistant baseball coach on the baseball team at Wash U. In addition to Beyond The Box Score, he contributes at Prospect Insider and DRaysBay. He went to his first baseball game at age two. Follow him on Twitter @hangingslurves
Which big homer of the late '70s was most memorable? It's a nigh-impossible decision between a pennant winner and a Red Sox killer.
The Pinstripe Alley Top Moments Tournament enters the second round of the 1960-1979 bracket. Vote for the moment that deserves to move on in the poll below.
(#2) Chambliss Homer Wins ALCS
The year was 1976. Wild Cherry's "Play that Funky Music" dominated the airwaves, Marathon Man had people asking, "Is it safe?", and for the first time in a decade, the Yankees were back. From 1921 through 1964, the Yankees won 29 American League Pennants and 20 World Series Championships. After losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1964 World Series, the Yankees endured a decade without October baseball, more than doubling any other playoff drought in the previous 50 years.
After spending a couple years playing home games in Shea Stadium while Yankee Stadium underwent renovations, the Yankees returned to their home park in 1976. Thurman Munson, newly minted team captain and that year's American League MVP, along with Catfish Hunter, Sparky Lyle, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, and Chris Chambliss, helped the Yankees to 97 wins and a double-digit lead in the standings over the second place Orioles.
Chambliss was a key piece to the pennant, but hardly the star of that Yankees team. The All-Star first baseman hit a solid .293 with 17 homers during the regular season, and he saved his best for the five-game series against the Kansas City Royals in the American League Championship Series. Over five games, Chambliss hit .524 with eight RBI, including a key home run in Game 3 that helped the Yankees to a 5-3 win and 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Kansas City came back to win Game 4, and Game 5 was a back and forth affair that saw Kansas City take and give back the lead twice before the Yankees gave up three runs in the eighth on a George Brett homer, causing the game to be knotted at six heading to the bottom of the ninth.
The Yankees needed one run in the ninth to win the game and the series, earning their first World Series appearance in more than a decade. With Mark Littell pitching, Chambliss hit the first pitch he saw and ended the Yankees' AL pennant drought. The only trouble Chambliss encountered came from fans mobbing him as he rounded the bases. Although the Yankees did not win the World Series until the following year, Chambliss' shot has earned its spot in Yankee lore.
Entry written by Craig Edwards on November 26, 2013.
(#3) Bucky F'in Dent
Preface: There aren't enough words in the galaxy to properly describe the awesomeness of this moment.
The Yankees were defending champions heading into the '78 season, seeking to win their third AL pennant in a row to boot. However, those were the days of the "Bronx Zoo," and clubhouse tension was worse than ever during the first half. Injuries plagued the team, egos collided, and by July 17th, the Yankees were 47-42, a deflating 14 1/2 games behind the first place Red Sox. They had just been swept by the rival Royals at home, and they were 18-27 since Memorial Day. The Yankees' fortunes began to change with a five-game winning streak, followed by troubled manager Billy Martin's resignation from his position on July 23rd in Chicago. Martin was replaced by Bob Lemon, a player's manager who brought some calm to the clubhouse.
From the time Lemon took over the team on July 25th, the Yankees went an outstanding 47-20, a .702 winning percentage that surged them up the AL East standings. Boston slumped, and the Yankees emphasized their return to the pennant race by humiliating the Red Sox in the "Boston Massacre," a four-game sweep at Fenway Park from September 7-10 that tied them atop the division. Eventually, the teams ended the season still tied at 99-63. A coin flip determined that they would play a one-game playoff at Fenway Park to decide the division title.
Ron Guidry started for the Yankees on three days' rest. "Louisiana Lightning" had one of the most electric pitching seasons in the history of the game in '78, and his regular season ended that day with a staggering 1.74 ERA, 208 ERA+, 0.946 WHIP, and 9.6 rWAR. He was not quite as sharp as normal though; he surrendered a solo homer to Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski to lead off the second and a Jim Rice single in the sixth made the score 2-0, Boston. Former Yankee Mike Torrez blanked his old teammates through six innings, but ran into trouble on back-to-back one-out singles by Chris Chambliss and Roy White. Jim Spencer popped out, bringing up light-hitting shortstop Bucky Dent. He was never much of a hitter, only exceeding a 90 OPS+ once over 11 full seasons of play. He had hit just four homers on the season, but after breaking his bat on a foul off his ankle to make it 0-2, Dent borrowed Mickey Rivers's bat and silenced the raucous crowd at Fenway Park:
No one saw Dent's three-run dinger coming. Suddenly, the Yankees had a 3-2 lead via the 64% shift in WPA from Dent's fly ball over the Monster. The Yankees needed the two insurance that followed, as they narrowly survived a scare in the ninth inning caused by the afternoon sun blinding right fielder Lou Piniella. A one-out, one-on single bounced in front of Piniella, who couldn't see it and luckily stuck his glove out to cut it off. The tying run was stranded in scoring position, and Hall of Fame closer Goose Gossage closed it out on Yaz's pop-up to Graig Nettles at third. After dealing perhaps the most crushing blow in the history of their long rivalry with Boston, the Yankees went on to win the '78 World Series to secure their 22nd championship.
Even though rumors claim that the Red Sox eventually broke their series of bad luck against the Yankees (unconfirmed), generations of Boston fans still revile "Bucky F'in Dent."
Entry written by Andrew Mearns on November 27, 2013.
Could the Red Sox make a run at the best pitcher available?
Yesterday at Boston.com, the excellent Chad Finn made a suggestion I haven't heard anywhere else. He suggested the Red Sox take a run at Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is the 25-year-old Japanese starting pitching star who might or might not be posted depending on the way the winds are blowing. Whether or not Tanaka gets posted is out of the Red Sox control, but the idea is still an intriguing one because, six starters or not, who couldn't use another young, top of the rotation starter? The Red Sox sure could. They won't fall apart if they don't get one like maybe some other teams might, but it sure as heck can't hurt.
This all crystalized for me when I read Ben Buchanan's piece here at OTM yesterday. The gist of it is this: the Red Sox have talent to spend and money to spend and, despite a large payroll dedicated to this upcoming season, flexibility out the wazoo. They can really add almost what ever they want. The issue isn't whether or not they have the pieces to acquire a big player with or without a big payroll, the issue is whether they want to do it or not. They have the means.
I've been vocal about the Red Sox going after Giancarlo Stanton here at OTM. On those numerous occasions we've had spirited conversations in the comments section about what is too much to give up, is the player worth the cost, etc. The issue has never been 'they can't because they just don't have the dough.' They do. They've got the dough. They can get a Stanton, or whomever is available (that's part of the key there, 'available') because they can afford both the cost in prospects and the cost in player salary that such a deal would necessitate.
Leaving aside that I just compared Tanaka to Stanton, the thing about Tanaka is that he won't cost prospects. The Sox can keep those bullets in their gun for later. Tanaka is effectively a free agent, even with the posting process (assuming his team puts him up for bid), so he'll only cost the Red Sox money, and the Red Sox have that.
There are a couple of issues here. First, do the Red Sox really want to give out another long-term, big money contract to a free agent (effectively speaking)? Didn't last season show us the fallacy of that strategy? Last October I looked at some of the long-term deals and extensions the Red Sox have given out over the years, and concluded thusly:
...sometimes [long term contracts] are a bad idea. But sometimes they aren't. [...] it isn't the contract that is the real problem, it's who you give that contract to. That's what makes the real difference.
I'll stand by that today. Long-term deals are much riskier than short term deals, so you deploy them with great care, but a smart organization won't remove that arrow from the quiver entirely. There will come a time when the Red Sox will need to lock up a very good player long term, like they just did with Dustin Pedroia.
Photo credit: Koji Watanabe
Second, is it smart to spend money on another starting pitcher, even one like Tanaka? The Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury despite having Brett Gardner on the roster. The Mariners signed Robinson Cano despite having Nick Franklin and Dustin Ackley. This isn't to hold up the Yankees and Mariners as the most enlightened organizations worthy of total emulation, just to say that when presented with what you consider to be a great talent, you don't let moderately talented players stand in the way. The Red Sox shouldn't let Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster stand in the way of acquiring Tanaka. Worst case they have depth, and best case they can deal one or both for a return that further helps the team on the field.
I realize that I'm 600+ words in and I haven't said anything about who Tanaka is or why he's so great. I also realize that Red Sox fans might not be so eager to go through the posting process for a star Japanese pitcher again anytime soon. I get that, but Daisuke Matsuzaka is not Masahiro Tanaka. As to Tanaka himself, Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness has a great piece up including quotes from scouts and GMs that should help you get up to speed on who we're talking about here. But the short of it is Tanaka is a very talented, 24-year-old starter in Japan who went 24-0 (I know, wins, right? But 24-0 is nuts!) with a 1.24 ERA and a ton of strikeouts and not so many walks. Here's a video of Tanaka striking out everything ever.
The guy is super young and super good. That's not the kind of thing you often get access to on the open market. The Red Sox have a scouting department and a budget and a ton of young pitchers coming up through the system, so the need isn't extreme by any stretch. But, wow, it sure would be exciting to grab a guy like Tanaka, wouldn't it? What's the old saying? If you're not improving you're getting worse? That maybe overstates things a bit, but Tanaka would make the Red Sox better, both right now and in the years to come. He'd leave the farm system untouched, and the influx of cheap talent would help alleviate any burden placed on the team by his salary. The more I think about it, the better it sounds.
The reports on whether or not Tanaka will be posted have bounced back and forth throughout the whole process, but have we finally reached a conclusion?
This morning, the New York Times ran an article saying that "several Japanese newspapers" reported that the Rakuten Golden Eagles would not allow top starter Masahiro Tanaka to be posted. The new posting system is a kick in the face to NPB teams given the new maximum posting limit of $20 million, so from Rakuten's standpoint, it doesn't make much sense to post Tanaka a year before they have to, since they can reap full value from him by having him on their team next year. The Times says that Rakuten will offer to double or triple his $4 million salary from 2013 to get him to stay, but it doesn't really sound like much of a debate between the two sides since Tanaka can't really pitch anywhere else if the Eagles refuse to post him, unless he was to hold out.
If true, the Yankees would have to turn to inferior overpaid sources for rotation help, and that would not be pretty. They might just decline to pursue any of the big-name starters since all have significant gaps in their game that could quickly turn their contracts into albatrosses.
Take these reports with a grain of salt though; the Times did not actually link to any newspaper aside from trying to interpret a Sports Hochi report without letting readers actually see the article and try to translate it themselves. Some of MLB's leading reporters have contacted their sources and they seem skeptical that the Times report is accurate as well:
GM: "Bizarre news on Rakuten. Not sure I buy it." Reference is to Rakuten’s reported decision not to post Tanaka. No official word yet.
Rosenthal and Heyman really know their stuff and have good sources, so I'm inclined to trust them more than a random Times reporter. I think this is far from settled, and I don't quite buy the unlinked Times report just yet.
