Derek Lowe came into tonight's game with a 5.52 ERA. That means that he has allowed 0.613 earned runs per inning that he has pitched. The Rangers have scored the most runs in baseball, and outside of Mike Napoli, this was their A lineup. A highly conservative estimate would put the Rangers at a 50% chance to score at least one run in every inning that Derek Lowe pitched to them. Derek Lowe pitched four innings and the Rangers didn't score.
If we take that conservative estimate to be somewhat close to reality, there's about a six percent chance that Derek Lowe would pitch four shutout innings against the Rangers. Derek Lowe.
The starting pitcher was David Phelps and he did pretty well too, surrendering only two runs over five frames. It's hard not to be over the moon about what Phelps has been able to do this season, and a solid showing against an elite offense is another notch in his belt. Phelps has made four starts this year and in those four starts he has allowed only five earned runs over eighteen innings. That's a 2.50 ERA.
A Nick Swisher third inning grand slam turned the game for the Yankees, changing an 0-2 deficit to a 4-2 lead. Eric Chavez would add another impressive home run later in the game to pad the lead and the Yankees were 4-5 with runners in scoring position. From this, I have determined something playoffs and something something heart.
Tomorrow, Hiroki Kuroda will be asked to pitch. I expect that he will, but Derek Lowe has taught me not to assume things.