You can't guarantee what Rodriguez will produce in 2015, but chances are good he'll be what the Yankees need.
The Yankees need Alex Rodriguez, and probably a lot more than Alex Rodriguez needs the Yankees. If the Yankees were to cut him -- they won't, but just follow along for a minute and pretend they'd listen to raving lunatics with deadlines to meet -- they would still be responsible for the remaining $61 million on his deal: A-Rod might be a pain and could fairly be labeled a distraction, but if he's free, he'd have new job offers to mull over 10 minutes after his release. The Yankees would be out $61 million, and they'd still have questions to answer, questions that A-Rod could have been the solution to.
We don't know how Alex Rodriguez is going to play after missing a year due to his 162-game suspension for his involvement with Biogenesis. His bat has slowed over the years, and taking a year off can accelerate that process. It sounds like Rodriguez has been working out like crazy in an effort to stay sharp, but he'll still be 39 years old in 2015, and at some point, no workout regimen is enough to guarantee success.
With all that being said, however, this is still Alex Rodriguez: he's on the downswing, but when you start from as high as he did, you've got a lot of room to fall. Despite playing with and recovering from injuries from 2011 through 2013, Rodriguez batted .269/.356/.441, good for a 115 OPS+. That's not elite like in A-Rod's peak, but it was right around the same production that Howie Kendrick, Mark Trumbo, teammate Mark Teixeira, Lucas Duda, Chase Utley, Nelson Cruz, and many others managed over the same period of time. Rodriguez was still a pretty good player, just one that was having trouble staying on the field.
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
A year off certainly won't hurt him from a health standpoint. He's more than two years removed from the hand injury that ruined the end of his 2012. He'll be two years removed from the hip surgery that delayed his 2013 when Yankees' camp breaks in the spring. His knees got a break, and he can finally have a normal, full offseason of workouts to get back into appropriate baseball shape, something he hasn't quite been able to do the past few seasons thanks to these maladies. As said, the question is still out there as to what his bat speed looks like, but A-Rod very well might be healthier at 39 than he was at 35, and that matters when projecting his performance.
He might have an easier time staying healthy, too, as early offseason reports indicate the Yankees want to use Rodriguez at first base and designated hitter instead of third base, the position they moved him to when they acquired him in 2004. Sure, they already have Teixeira for first base, but his last productive season came in 2012, and he just batted .216/.313/.398 over 508 plate appearances. Wrist injuries are tricky, and Teix has been dealing with one the past couple of years. It's possible he comes back strong in 2015, a couple of years removed from the initial injury, but it's just as likely he does another impression of present-day Ryan Howard instead.
Yankees' first basemen combined to produce, relative to other first basemen in the game, an 82 OPS+. Designated hitter wasn't any better, with an 80 OPS+. If Rodriguez is the hitter he was the past few seasons while dealing with an array of injuries, then he'll be a significant upgrade at either position. If A-Rod ends up being the designated hitter because Teixeira rebounds and the Yankees re-signed Chase Headley for third base, then a whole lot of lineup issues have suddenly resolved themselves.
That doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility for Rodriguez's 2015. There have been reports since the suspension began that he was staying in shape and working hard to his return, so questions about the condition of his bat speed could be a non-issue. He might be a little rusty at first, but maybe not: remember, even injured, aging A-Rod was one of the top-75 hitters in the majors from 2011 through 2013. The Yankees could use another bat like that in their lineup, just like they needed A-Rod while he was hurt and while he was suspended. You can hate on Rodriguez all you want for the admitted PED use, for his contract, or for whatever reason you've decided you hate him. The Yankees need him, though, and A-Rod is likely to give them just what they need.