Long-term and mid-term contracts given by the Yankees have been disappointing in results. Will they proceed into the future with caution or continue to take on the risk with the hope of a World Series victory?
There’s been a lot of chatter throughout the baseball community as to whether or not commitments have been paying off for the teams that sign them. I used 2004 as my starting point and looked at all contracts since then and placed them into the following categories: Contracts 5 years or greater in length were considered long-term. Contracts 3-4 years in length were considered mid-term.
The information contained in the charts in this article is comprised of the following: Contract length, total dollar value of the contract, total contract WAR value, current WAR earned, contract years remaining, difference between contract WAR value and earned WAR value. The dollar amount used was $6.5 million per WAR.
Long-term
Player | Years | Amount | Contract War | Earned War | Years Remaining | Difference |
7 | $161 M | 24.8 | 24.9 | 2 | 0.1 | |
7 | $155 M | 23.8 | 3.2 | 6 | -20.6 | |
*AJ Burnett | 5 | $82.5 M | 12.7 | 5.4 | 0 | -2.22 |
8 | $180 M | 27.7 | 15.4 | 2 | -12.3 | |
5 | $85 M | 13.1 | 2.3 | 4 | -10.8 | |
7 | $153 M | 23.5 | 3.6 | 6 | -19.9 | |
10 | $275 M | 42.3 | 20.1 | 3 | -22.2 | |
6 | $55 M | 8.5 | 29.5 | 0 | 21 |
*A.J. Burnett was traded after year three of the contract. His contract war calculation was changed to reflect his three year tenure.*
As you can see CC Sabathia and Robinson Cano have been the only long-term contracts so far to pay a return on ownership’s investment. Making it all the more perplexing that they didn't attempt to lock Cano up before he reached free agency. It appears that Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira will not hit positive returns by the end of their contracts, while A.J. Burnett failed to live up to his contract during his tenure already. On the other side of the coin it’s still too early to tell whether the Jacoby Ellsbury, Masahiro Tanaka and Brian McCann signings will pay off with so many years left on their contracts.
Mid-term
Player | Years | Amount | Contract War | Earned War | Years Remaining | Difference |
3 | $45 M | 6.9 | -0.5 | 2 | -7.4 | |
4 | $52 M | 8 | 3.2 | 3 | -4.8 | |
3 | $51 M | 7.8 | 4.3 | 0 | -3.5 | |
4 | $39.95M | 6.1 | 1 | 0 | -5.1 | |
4 | $52.4 M | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0 | -5 | |
3 | $45 M | 6.9 | 4.4 | 0 | -2.5 |
* Derek Jeter missed most of the 2013 season due to an ankle injury.*
**Carl Pavano only threw 145.2 innings due to multiple injuries. **
***Mariano Rivera missed almost a full season in 2012, due to a knee injury.***
Looking at the chart above both injuries and underperformance have hurt Brian Cashman’s mid-term signings. Brett Gardner netted a solid 3.2 WAR this season and appears headed towards over performance of his contract. Carlos Beltran on the other hand will have to dig himself out of the hole that was dug by his elbow injury this season and there’s a 50/50 chance that he will. Mariano almost certainly would have at least broken even if he hadn’t lost most of a season due to the knee injury.
After reviewing these statistics, it appears the Yankees have gotten very little bang for their buck since 2004, though given free agency's natural flaw of overpaying players for declines, that's not too surprising (the team's focus was on extracting value from the earlier contract years and dealing with sunk cost later). Taking the human element into account, you cannot fault ownership for taking care of legendary players such as Jeter and Posada as a thank you for all of their accomplishments. It’s easy to see why Hal Steinbrenner and the front office are leery of adding more long-term commitments to the payroll, making it all the more important that the farm system produce solid everyday players going forward.
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs.