Traditionally, the calling card for CC Sabathia has been his devastating slider. Combined with a plus fastball, the pitch was murder on lefties and a dominant out pitch. But Sabathia's second most effective pitch over his MLB career has been his changeup, reaching its peak effectiveness last year as opponents were limited to a 35 wRC+ when facing it.
CC Sabathia's advanced statistics by pitch: Career
Pitch | Pitches | BB% | K% | BB/K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA | wRC+ |
FA | 10347 | 8.3 % | 12.5 % | 0.66 | .277 | .343 | .429 | .772 | .152 | .296 | 343.9 | 37.8 | .340 | 113 |
SL | 4733 | 1.9 % | 48.8 % | 0.04 | .155 | .177 | .236 | .413 | .081 | .287 | 5.6 | -152.3 | .182 | 14 |
CH | 3470 | 5.5 % | 17.8 % | 0.31 | .242 | .282 | .354 | .636 | .112 | .277 | 87.8 | -35.3 | .281 | 75 |
SI | 2261 | 6.7 % | 7.7 % | 0.88 | .330 | .379 | .500 | .879 | .170 | .335 | 102.9 | 32.3 | .382 | 144 |
CU | 456 | 0.0 % | 33.8 % | 0.00 | .275 | .286 | .406 | .692 | .130 | .395 | 7.1 | -1.3 | .303 | 92 |
But it has been an entirely different story in 2013.
Pitch | Pitches | BB% | K% | BB/K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA | wRC+ |
FA | 1148 | 8.2 % | 13.8 % | 0.60 | .292 | .349 | .485 | .834 | .193 | .300 | 45.1 | 11.5 | .362 | 131 |
SL | 628 | 2.6 % | 42.4 % | 0.06 | .168 | .194 | .304 | .498 | .136 | .255 | 6.6 | -14.5 | .218 | 40 |
CH | 455 | 7.0 % | 14.0 % | 0.50 | .295 | .345 | .492 | .837 | .197 | .324 | 21.4 | 5.6 | .364 | 133 |
SI | 414 | 6.3 % | 8.1 % | 0.78 | .330 | .385 | .500 | .885 | .170 | .341 | 18.7 | 6.4 | .387 | 152 |
CU | 148 | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.00 | .364 | .364 | .727 | 1.091 | .364 | .300 | 2.5 | 1.3 | .467 | 210 |
CC has allowed 16 extra-base hits in 2013 off of his changeup, versus just three in all of 2012. Because of this CC has been reduced to only having one effective pitch, which is okay for a reliever, but a real problem for a once front-line starter.
But the problem with CC's changeup does not appear to be velocity-related as one might assume. The difference in speed between his fastball and changeup is actually exactly the same as it was last year (6.4 MPH). But he's getting fewer swinging strikes with the pitch and hitters are making much better contact. The pinpoint control necessary to throw an effective changeup just isn't there. And if you don't spot it properly, a changeup is basically just glorified batting practice.
Hopefully CC can work out whatever problems he's having with his changeup in the offseason. The dip in velocity is problem enough without being able to throw your pitches accurately. Otherwise, CC is likely to have another season where he's one of the league leaders in XBH allowed. And considering the size and length of his contract, he would become quite the albatross for the Yankees. And that is not a fat joke.