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Daily Yankees Predictions 4/11/14: I believe in Michael Pineda

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Michael Pineda pitched six innings of beautiful baseball in the Bronx. CC Sabathia needs to follow suit. Also, more PSA DP coming your way. Is there another tie or did someone finally win?

I am currently in Boston right now, and you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. I must be cautious in my sarcastic chuckling and Yankee fandom while up here. Bars might not serve my kind, especially after this supposed pine tar incident. Pineda claims it was dirt. Sounds good to me!

4/10/14 Daily Predictions Answers

1.How many innings does the opposing team starter pitch?6
2.Total number of strikeouts by the Yankee starter only?7
3.Total number of earned runs allowed by the Yankees' bullpen?0
4.Total number of walks given up by Yankee pitchers?2
5.Total number of Yankee extra base hits?1
6.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight

Anna

7.Name a Yankee you think will have the best defensive play of the gameGardner
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?Pineda

Im tired of tying for first or coming in second... this ends tonight! -GriffMan 4/10/14

Guess what? We have another tie for first place between GriffMan and HighFlyers28. Both scored 4,000 points. HighFlyers28 may have made a powerful enemy today.

4/11/14 Daily Predictions & Fun Questions

1.How many innings does the opposing team starter pitch?
2.Total number of strikeouts by the Yankee starter only?
3.Total number of earned runs allowed by the Yankees' bullpen?
4.Total number of walks given up by Yankee pitchers?
5.Total number of Yankee extra base hits?
6.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight
7.Name a Yankee you think will have the best defensive play of the game
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?

Sandwiches (or Sammiches): Which is more important, the bread or the meat/non-bread?

Righty or Lefty?

Have you ever been to Boston?

Nova, Pineda, or Tanaka: Which pitcher do you have the most hope for in the future?

With a win tonight, the Yankees can at least make sure the Red Sox do not win the series, which is always one of life's great joys. Anyone else hoping for some fun "traderous" antics from Ellsbury? CC Sabathia will take the mound, so maybe the 2nd inning is the inning you want to start watching.

Let's Go Yankees


Famous Yankees pitcher GIFs of past and present

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Some of the young guns will hope to have their best pitches join the pantheon of greats that have preceded them over the years.

Although the Yankees have been known more for their hitting exploits throughout their history, they have featured some of the greatest pitchers of all time at various points as well. These dynamic arms featured an array of pitches that made opposing hitters look absolutely foolish on a fairly regular basis. While some of these pitches are sadly lost to history due to there being no video (Jack Chesbro's diving spitball) or highly limited film quality (Whitey Ford's pinpoint changeup and curve), there is still a decent collection of footage available to create a GIF tribute to some of the best.

Curveballs

David Wells

Wells_curve_medium

"Boomer's" 10-to-4 curve seemed to be effortlessly thrown, but it often baffled hitters when they saw that the pitch that was once far outside suddenly came across the strike zone. It was never better for the Yankees than in 1998, when the All-Star Wells featured it in his May perfect game against the Twins and in an two performances against the Indians that helped the Yankees clinch the pennant and earn Wells the ALCS MVP. Although some pitchers face challenges to throw their curves for strikes, Wells mastered it and owned a staggering 1.2 BB/9 in '98 and 0.8 BB/9 in '03, both in pinstripes.

Mike Mussina

Moose_k-c_medium

Perhaps the most underrated pitcher of his generation, "Moose" fanned 2,813 batters during his 18-year career, and many of those Ks came via a pitch that was unlike any other in the majors: the knuckle-curve. Mussina had excellent control, and its sharp contrast to his fastball is demonstrated in this GIF. How any hitter did anything with it is beyond me.

The modern contenders
Ivan Nova

Nova_curve_medium

David Robertson

D-rob_curves_medium

Both Nova and D-Rob feature nasty 12-to-6 curves, albeit in different pitching roles. When Nova has his curve working, he is dominant, like in his three-hit shutout last year against the Orioles. Similarly, since joining the Yankees' bullpen in 2008, D-Rob has mastered his breaking pitch and currently holds the greatest strikeout rate of any pitcher in Yankees history with at least 300 innings. Perhaps most startling is that it's an 11.63 K/9, and the next-closest, Jeff Nelson (whose slider probably should have been included), is almost two full strikeouts off at 9.67 K/9. Ridiculous.

Sliders

Catfish Hunter

Catfish_slider_medium

After guiding the Oakland Athletics to three straight World Series titles in the early '70s, Jim "Catfish" Hunter became the first high-profile free agent and George Steinbrenner won the bidding for him with a then-record five-year, $3.35 million deal. He immediately rewarded the Boss with a crazy 328-inning, 1.009 WHIP season in '75 that featured 30 complete games and seven shutouts, thanks in no small part to his snappy slider. This huge season probably hurt his arm and led to an earlier demise than expected, but Catfish had two more solid seasons in '76 and '78 as the Yankees won three straight AL pennants and back-to-back World Series titles.

Sparky Lyle

Sparky_slider_medium

This story has been told countless times and I'm sure I've written about it more than once on this blog, but when Sparky Lyle was a young pitcher with the Red Sox, Ted Williams told him the one pitch he could never hit was the slider. Sparky took the advice to heart and built a 16-year career in the bullpen throwing almost exclusively sliders. Opposing batters could just never hit it. When he was traded to the Yankees, he became a three-time All-Star closer for them and won the '77 AL Cy Young Award, the first ever given to a reliever.

Ron Guidry

Guidry_slider_medium

A couple years ago, MLB Network did a show called "Prime 9" wherein they ranked the top nine whatevers in baseball history. They did an episode on the best sliders, and they named Guidry's devastating slider the greatest ever. Not bad praise at all. "Gator" was the Yankees' most consistent starting pitcher in the long period between Whitey Ford and Andy Pettitte, and he earned Cy Young Award votes in six of his 10 seasons of at least 20 starts. The slider led him to perhaps the most dominant pitching season ever recorded by a Yankee, 1978, when he set a franchise record with 18 strikeouts in a game against the Angels that began the "two-strike clap" Yankee Stadium tradition and pitched to an amazing 1.74 ERA and 0.946 WHIP, earning him the Cy Young Award and a second-place AL MVP finish.

David Cone

Coney_slider_medium

If it seems like Coney has a very thorough understanding of the movement on Michael Pineda's slider, it's because the very same pitch served as his not-so-secret weapon throughout his excellent career, which included a Cy Young Award, five All-Star berths, 2,668 strikeouts (19 in one game with the Mets), and five World Series rings. When he twirled a perfect game against the Montreal Expos in '99, it was even more sinister than normal, as the young Expos batters could not help but chase it.

The modern contender: Michael Pineda

Pineda_slider_medium

We waited over two years to finally see Michael Pineda's slider in action, and holy crap is it nasty. Pleasestayhealthy, pleasestayhealthy, pleasestayhealthy.

Splitters

Roger Clemens

Clemens_splitter_medium

Depending on whether or not you care about PEDs, "the Rocket" had a legitimate argument to be the greatest pitcher of his generation (him or Greg Maddux) and maybe the best of all-time. When he was a Yankee from 1999-2003, he brought his strikeout stuff to the Yankees and utilized a pitch he called "Mr. Splitty" to make baseball's best hitters look awful. During the 2000, he was just filthy, striking out 15 Mariners during a one-hit ALCS Game 4 shutout and fanning nine Mets in a controversial World Series Game 2 victory.

The modern contender: Masahiro Tanaka

Tanaka_splitter_medium

Tanaka's most well-discussed pitch when coming over from Japan was his splitter, and the early results indicate that MLB hitters might have as many problems with Ma-Kun as their NPB counterparts.

Cutters

Mariano Rivera

Cutters_medium

Much like Sparky, the masterful Mo baffled big league hitters for almost two decades with basically one pitch. No one could hit the cutter due its very late break, as evinced in the slow-mo above. The hitters thought the pitch would to a particular location, but the last second, it disappeared. We may never see a pitch as dominant as Mo's cutter ever again.

Andy Pettitte

Cutters_medium

The southpaw sometimes used his fastball as his best pitch, but most often, it was a late-breaking cutter that fooled Pettitte's opponents for 18 years. Even 15 years apart in the GIF above, great hitters like Ken Caminiti and Hunter Pence were helpless.

Misc.

Goose Gossage - Fastball

Goose_fastball_medium

No Yankees pitcher has ever thrown as hard as Hall of Famer Goose Gossage, who relied on pure heat to become arguably the Yankees' best pre-Mo closer. Maybe one day the Yankees will find someone who rivals Goose in velocity, but that day has yet to arrive.

Steve Hamilton - Folly Floater

Hamilton_folly_floater_medium

This GIF and the next two are just for fun because there is nothing more entertaining than watching major league hitters, like Tony Horton, look helpless against a beer league pitch.

Orlando Hernandez - Eephus

Duque_eephus_medium

For a little while, "El Duque" featured an eephus pitch. Of course one time, he tried to challenge Alex Rodriguez twice in a row with it. That did not end well.

A-rod_eephus_medium

Dave LaRoche - La Lob

La_lob_medium

My personal favorite beer league-type pitch, Adam LaRoche's father Dave did this to Brewers slugger Gorman Thomas in 1981. He mentioned to his new manager, Bob Lemon, that he had a curve. Lem probably didn't expect this, but my God was it fun.

Which pitch is your favorite? Did I miss any good ones? Post in the comments. I'll be here watching La Lob over and over again.

What makes Tanaka's splitter nasty?

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We've heard about and already have gotten a taste of Masahiro Tanaka's repetoire. Best known for his diving split-finger, what makes the pitch so difficult to hit?

Of the seven pitches Masahiro Tanaka offers, one stands out above them all: the splitter. That isn't to say the rest of his arsenal is mediocre, but the split is Ma-Kun's calling card. It hasn't taken long to see that he is capable of confusing opponents with the diving pitch, one that some have called the best of its kind in the world. To be fair, the splitter isn't a particularly popular pitch nowadays. Yet, what we've seen from Tanaka is a pitch that has been difficult for batters to square up.

The results with the pitch have been outstanding. Per Brooks Baseball, Tanaka has generated 16 swings and misses on 45 splitters (35.56%). No, that's not sustainable, but it's probably safe to say hitters will still feel the breeze frequently against it going forward. It's been put into play nine times, only twice in the air (one being a Melky Cabrera homer). Indeed it is a small sample, but we were expecting Tanaka to dominate with it. Moreover, aside from scouting reports, PitchF/X supports his split-finger's brilliance. Because a pitcher's release point and velocity don't go through random variations (i.e. Tanaka doesn't randomly throw 102 MPH), conclusions can be made from PitchF/X data rather quickly.

Like most pitches, a splitter's intent is to deceive. Simply put, a good split is one that appears to be a fastball out of the pitcher's hand, only to disappear late in its trajectory to the plate. To accomplish this, similar arm action and release point is essential with the two offerings. Major League hitters will quickly pick up on subtle differences in motion and thereby be able to decipher between the two at release.

Tanaka_release_point_medium

Although PitchF/X can't tell us a pitcher's arm speed, it can illustrate the release point. By this measure, Tanaka's split is virtually indistinguishable from the rest of his fastball-type offerings (four-seamer, cutter, and sinker). The four-seam fastball and splitter overlap, while his sinker and cutter are a mere inches away, likely unnoticeable differences to the hitter. This is an ideal feature of Tanaka's split, but not everything to it. Movement and velocity are contributors to its effectiveness, too.

Tanaka_vertical_movement_medium

Tanaka's high-velocity pitches all move differently. The chart above plots how far his fastball-type offerings drop relative to his horizontal release point. The split (pink dot) makes the most dramatic drop downward of the group, as expected. Most importantly, it plummets significantly below it's main buffer, the four-seamer (black dot). And again, with a consistent throwing angle, it's hard for any batter to know where any of these four are destined. Plus, with a five to six MPH difference against the fastball, the split can act like a changeup, increasing the probability of a whiff.

The eye-test, PitchF/X, and outcome statistics confirm the nastiness of the split-finger we've been anxiously waiting to see since Ma-Kun signed. Basically, the best chance for a hitter against a well executed Tanaka splitter is to know it's coming. The early results are exciting, but it's truly the mechanics behind the pitch that speak most to its excellence. He may only be two starts into his career, but it's easy to see why the Yankees envisioned Tanaka blossoming at the top of the rotation.

Ubaldo Jimenez's Struggles Are Legit

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The Orioles right-hander has had trouble adjusting to the rigors of the American League East, and while his two starts provide a small sample size, there's plenty of reason to believe that expecting a rebound is simply wishful thinking.

Moving to the typically hitter-friendly American League East is no easy task, but the challenge becomes especially magnified when coming from Progressive Field in Cleveland, the 9th-most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors last season, per ESPN park data.

Nevertheless, that’s exactly what Baltimore Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez is attempting to do, and thus far, it’s not going swimmingly. In a pair of starts this season, Jimenez has allowed eight runs, all earned, in 10.2 innings. He’s also surrendered 13 hits, eight walks and a pair of homers over that span.

Translation: He’s struggled. Big time. But does that mean it’s time for fantasy owners to panic? Not necessarily.

The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina wrote a solid post on Tuesday explaining that Jimenez’s early-season struggles are nothing new, and that he’s shown the ability to rebound in the past. Indeed, as Encina noted, Jimenez owns a 5.02 career ERA in April, a number that drops to 3.86 after that.

Examining the statistical data is all well and good, but there’s no guarantee the right-hander will continue the trend this season. That’s especially true when considering that all of that late-season improvement has come while pitching outside of the pitcher’s nightmare that is the AL East.

Yes, Jimenez has spent the bulk of his career pitching for the Rockies at Coors Field, another pitcher-inhibiting environment. However, I’d argue that it’s easier to pitch in that atmosphere against what was a light-hitting NL West at the time (2006-2011, the span of Jimenez’s career in Colorado) than in the AL East, with a slew off tough ballparks and essentially every team sporting an even tougher lineup.

In fact, three of the five AL East ballparks, including the Orioles’ own Camden Yards, rank among the top 10 most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, and three of the four other teams in the league (the Orioles excluded) ranked in the top 11 in runs scored in 2013. (The one team outside the top 11, the Yankees, added a fair share of firepower this offseason.)

In case I’m not making it blatantly clear to you, the AL East isn’t an ideal place to pitch, and Jimenez’s early struggles might be more a sign of what’s to come than simply a statistical anomaly.

But it’s not just unfortunate circumstance that bodes poorly for Jimenez. The right-hander has also seen a dramatic drop in his velocity over the past few seasons, as noted by SB Nation’s own Camden Chat. As author Ryan Pollack wrote, Jimenez’s fastball averaged just 91.2 MPH in his start against the Red Sox on April 2. That’s a number that isn’t likely to go up when examining the right-hander’s career trend, as Pollack noted.

Jimenez also struggled mightily location-wise within the strike zone in that game, though it’s been unusual for him to be in the strike zone at all given his eight walks in 10.2 innings this season.

One other point of significance: If Baltimore finds itself in the playoff hunt, a very viable (yet perhaps unlikely) possibility if all the pieces fall into place, Jimenez might have a short leash in the rotation. Before you laugh at the notion of the Orioles making a playoff push, consider just how good that lineup could look if Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters return to form. The addition of Nelson Cruz coupled with starter Miguel Gonzalez’s emergence last year also indicate good things for Baltimore this season.

Of course, a playoff run might be contingent upon Jimenez’s improved performance in the first place, but if the playoff seeds are planted in Baltimore, you can bet the team won’t have any patience for a struggling veteran, especially with young guns Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, the latter of whom is expected to return from Tommy John surgery in June or July, waiting for a starting opportunity.

That’s all a long-winded way of advising you to stay clear of Jimenez. If you own him, maybe hope he rebounds a bit in his next start, then trade him while his value is a tad bit higher. Or if someone is trying to dump him on you for cheap, I’d advise that you don’t go anywhere near him. Don’t forget, Jimenez is a year removed from a league-leading 17 losses and a 5.40 ERA–what’s to say that won’t happen again?

Yankees lineup vs. Red Sox - Michael Pineda won't be suspended for pine tar incident

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CC Sabathia starts against the Red Sox and Michael Pineda won't be suspended for pine tar incident.

The Yankees got a brilliant start out of Michael Pineda last night, but they need another good performance out of the man who is supposed to be the team's ace to earn at least a series split. CC Sabathia turned in a very good game against the Blue Jays on Sunday before imploding a bit in his final inning of work. Here's tonight's lineup behind Sabathia:

Brett Gardner and Brian McCann get the night off against Red Sox starter Jon Lester. Ichiro Suzuki will take Gardner's place in left field while Francisco Cervelli gets the start behind the plate. Derek Jeter leads off in the Gardner-less lineup instead of Jacoby Ellsbury, which is a bit interesting. Everything else is pretty much as we've come to expect it with Mark Teixeira on the DL. The bottom part of the lineup is pretty reminiscent of 2013, though. Yikes.

In other news, MLB will not suspend Michael Pineda for what appeared to be pine tar on his pitching hand in Thursday night's game against Boston. Joe Torre said that he would, however, be speaking to the Yankees about the incident. It would be rather foolish to punish Pineda when the Red Sox were almost certainly aware of what was going on and said nothing to the umpiring crew. In fact, they all had a similar answer when asked about it after the game: it's common practice and therefore no big deal. Still, Pineda could stand to be more subtle with it going forward. It seems like opposing teams don't care that a pitcher is trying to get some extra grip on the ball as long as they aren't being as blatant about it as Pineda was. Time to move on from this non-story.

Speaking of Mark Teixeira, the team plans on having him back before May 1st, but doesn't expect that Brendan Ryan will be back then. Joe Girardi said last night that Ryan had just begun the lowest levels of baseball activity while trying to recover from an injury that cost him pretty much all of spring training. That's good news for Dean Anna and Yangervis Solarte, one of which will probably lose their spot on the team when Ryan returns. Solarte in particular has certainly made the most of the time he's gotten.

You can watch tonight's game on YES, MLB Network (provided you aren't in the blacked out area), or MLB.tv at 7:05 pm.

Yankees 2, Red Sox 4: Another bad inning leads to another frustrating loss

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The Yankees had Good CC and a lead for a while. Suddenly, they had neither.

The Yankees got a strong performance out of CC Sabathia for six innings, holding the Red Sox lineup scoreless while they held on to a narrow one-run lead until the sixth inning. Unfortunately, that was when the wheels fell off for CC after he allowed a home run to Jonny Gomes to lead off the inning that tied the game at 1-1. Grady Sizemore capped off the inning with a long three-run home run that put the defending World Series champions up 4-2.

Sabathia stayed in for the seventh inning before departing for the night after 111 pitches. He allowed six hits and two walks and struck out nine batters. The few mistakes CC made, however, proved to be very costly which seems like a bit of a trend with him. The mistakes haven't been going for singles as much as they have been finding the seats.

Alfonso Soriano gave the Yankees a lead when he led off the second inning with a home run to left field. With rain in the forecast and Sabathia and Jon Lester dueling on the pitching side, getting a lead and holding onto it until the game was official seemed important. The rain held off but the Yankees' lead obviously did not hang on. The team scratched out another run in the seventh inning when Kelly Johnson singled in Ichiro Suzuki with two outs. Johnson's hit broke a 0-14 streak against Lester. That brought Derek Jeter to the plate with runners at first and third but a flyout ended the threat and the inning.

Cesar Cabral, Adam Warren, and Dellin Betances got some work out of the bullpen after Sabathia left the game. Cabral walked the only batter he faced in David Ortiz while Warren allowed a hit and tallied a strikeout to conclude the eighth. Betances got two quick strikeouts looking in the top of the ninth before getting Gomes to strike out swinging in the ninth.

The Yankees offense threatened again in the eighth inning when Soriano singled and Brian McCann pinch hit for Francisco Cervelli. McCann swung at a ball obviously outside the strike zone for strike three to end the inning. Suzuki and Jacoby Ellsbury each reached base twice in the game with Suzuki singling twice and Ellsbury working a walk to go along with a single. He also stole his fifth base of the season. Derek Jeter singled and Brian Roberts as the only remaining signs of offense. The team went quietly in the ninth with outs by Yangervis Solarte, Suzuki, and pinch hitter Brett Gardner.

Hiroki Kuroda tries to secure at least a split of the series in tomorrow afternoon's game against Red Sox starter John Lackey. That game begins at 1:05 pm.

Cubs Minor League Wrap: April 11

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Two wins, two losses. Sounds about right.

One roster note. Jae-Hoon Ha was activated from extended spring training and placed on the Iowa Cubs roster. Jonathan Sanchez was placed on the DL.

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs got pecked by the Memphis Redbirds (Cardinals), 8-5.

After shutting down Memphis in Des Moines in his first start, the Redbirds took their revenge upon Eric Jokisch. Jokisch was tagged for seven runs on eight hits over 5+ innings. He struck out two and did not walk a batter.

After falling behind 7-2, Iowa got close when Chris Valaika hit a three-run home run in the sixth inning, his first of the young season. Valaika was 2 for 3 with a walk.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies blew a two-run lead in the top of the ninth, but came back to win on a Stephen Bruno walkoff single in the bottom of the inning as the Smokies beat the Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers), 6-5.

Corey Black did not allow a hit in his five innings start, but he was pulled after 79 pitches. He did walk three batters while striking out two. He retired the final ten batters he faced.

The Smokies had a 5-0 lead going into the top of the ninth, but would eventually blow the lead. P.J. Francescon allowed three runs in the one inning he pitched, but they really weren't his fault as Tennessee made three straight fielding errors in the inning, All three runs were, of course, unearned.  Francescon allowed one hit and one walk while striking out two.

Armando Rivero came on for the save in the top of the ninth, but blew the lead when he allowed a two-run home run to Noel Cuevas. He got the win when Tennessee scored in the bottom of the inning. Rivero allowed one hit and one walk. He struck out two.

Bruno's RBI single was his only hit in five trips to the plate.

First baseman Dustin Geiger hit his third home run of the season with a two-run blast in the second inning. Geiger was 2 for 3 with a walk. He scored twice.

Shortstop Jeudy Valdez became the first Smokie other than Geiger or Kris Bryant to homer when he hit a three-run home run in the seventh inning. Valdez was 1 for 3.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs dropped their fifth straight and seventh of their first eight with a 5-1 loss to the Tampa Yankees.

Starter Yao-Lin Wang didn't pitch poorly at all, but got no support and lost his second game. Wang allowed two runs on four hits over five innings. He struck out six and walked only one.

Starling Peralta pitched the other three innings and allowed three runs, but only one of them was earned. Peralta was touched for three hits, including a solo home run. He struck out three and didn't walk anyone.

Left fielder Bijan Rademacher was 2 for 3 with a walk.

Kane County Cougars

The Kane County Cougars capsized the Lake County Captains (Indians), 6-4.

Daury Torrez got the win despite allowing three home runs in only 5.1 innings. All four of the runs he allowed scored on those three home runs. Torrez gave up seven hits. He walked two and struck out two.

Nathan Dorrisdidn't allow a run over 2.2 innings in relief of Torrez. He gave way to Zack Godley, who struck out all three batters he faced in the ninth inning to claim his first career save.

Shortstop Carlos Penalver and left fielder Yasiel Balaguert continue their hot starts to the season. Penalver went 3 for 5 with one RBI and two runs scored. Balaguert was also 3 for 5, but with a triple and two RBI. He scored once.

Third baseman Jordan Hankins was 2 for 3 with a walk and a run scored.

With the win, the Kane County Cougars' record improves to 5-3. It's the first time that they've ever been 2 games over .500 as a Cubs affiliate.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 4/12/14

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Last Time on Pinstripe Alley

Yankees News

Scouting Baseball | Kiley McDaniel:Shane Greene was completely unknown before the Yankees discovered and drafted him.

It's About the Money | Brad Vietrogoski: Examining Derek Jeter's spray charts shows that he's doing exactly what he should be doing at this point in his career.

Fangraphs Community Research | Foster Honeck:Alfonso Soriano and Mark Teixeira are two of the most overpaid players in baseball.

Yahoo! Sports | Jeff Passan: Anonymous players provide lessons on how to cheat in baseball.

LoHud | Chad Jennings:Dean Anna and Derek Jeter talk about Anna's first home run.

New York Post | George A. King III: Joe Girardi believes we have to give Brian McCann more time before we judge him too harshly.

For the Win | Ted Berg: The Michael Pineda pine tar controversy is not worth get angry over.

LoHud | Chad Jennings: Brian McCann is already very popular among the Yankees pitching staff.

Sports illustrated | Cliff Corcoran: After finding no issue with Michael Pineda, it's clear that MLB doesn't find enforcing foreign substance rules very important.


Baby Bomber Recap 4/11/14: Rafael De Paula strikes out six as errors abound

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Recapping the Yankees' minor league affiliates' results from April 11th.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders: Postponed for rain

Double-A Trenton Thunder:L 4-5 vs. Erie SeaWolves

CF Mason Williams 0-5, K
DH Ben Gamel 1-4, BB, K
3B Tyler Austin 2-5, 2 K, E5 - throwing error
C Gary Sanchez 2-5 - batting .370 this season
2B Rob Refsnyder 2-5, double, 2 K
1B Zach Wilson 1-3, RBI, BB, K
LF Taylor Dugas 2-4, double, RBI, K
RF Yeral Sanchez 0-4, 2 K
SS Dan Fiorito 1-4, 2 RBI

Zach Nuding 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, BB, 6 K - 58 of 88 pitches for strikes, 6-1 GO/AO
Jairo Heredia 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, BB, K
Cole Kimball 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, BB, 2 WP

High-A Tampa Yankees:W 5-1 vs. Daytona Cubs

CF Jake Cave 1-4, double, RBI, K
SS Cito Culver 0-4, 2 K, E6 - fielding error (4th), batting .200 this season
DH Eric Jagielo 1-4, RBI, 2 K - five game hitting streak
C Peter O'Brien 1-4, HR, RBI, K, E2 - pickoff error(1st), fourth homer, batting .355 this season
3B Dante Bichette Jr. 1-3, double, BB - batting .292 this season
2B Angelo Gumbs 1-4, K, E4 - fielding error
1B Reymond Nunez 1-3, RBI, K, 2 E3 - two fielding errors (4th and 5th)
RF Danny Oh 1-3, RBI, OF assist
LF Claudio Custodio 0-2, K

Rafael De Paula 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, WP - 5-3 GO/AO
Kyle Haynes 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, BB
Alex Smith 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R/0 ER, 0 BB, K, WP, hit batsman

Low-A Charleston RiverDogs:L 1-8 vs. Augusta GreenJackets

SS Tyler Wade 0-2, 3 BB, K, E6 - fielding error (2nd)
CF Brandon Thomas 0-4, 2 K
RF Aaron Judge 0-3, BB, 2 K - batting .214 this season
DH Mike Ford 0-4, K
3B Miguel Andujar 0-3, BB, 2 E5 - throwing error, missed catch error
LF Michael O'Neill 0-3, BB, K, SB - fifth stolen base of the season
2B Gosuke Katoh 0-4, 4 K, E4 - fielding error (2nd), batting .136 this season
C Eduardo de Oleo 1-3, BB, K, passed ball
1B John Murphy 2-4, RBI, K

Giovanny Gallegos 4.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R/2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, hit batsman - 7-2 GO/AO
Andy Beresford 2.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R/1 ER, 0 BB, K, WP, hit batsman
Stefan Lopez 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, K
Jordan Cote 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R/1 ER, 1 BB

Poll
Who was the Best Baby Bomber for April 11th?

  116 votes |Results

Daily Yankees Predictions 4/12/14: Afternoon Delight

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Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound in Game 3 of this 4 game set against the Red Sox. Betances looked brilliant. Do we have yet another tie or did someone win? Another PSA DP coming your way.

This is gonna be short and sweet. Dellin Betances looked incredible. Alfonso Soriano's bat seems to be regaining its luster. CC Sabathia pitched one bad inning and the Yankees' offense could not back him up. They need to work on that.

4/11/14 Daily Predictions Answers

1.How many innings does the opposing team starter pitch?6.2
2.Total number of strikeouts by the Yankee starter only?9
3.Total number of earned runs allowed by the Yankees' bullpen?0
4.Total number of walks given up by Yankee pitchers?3
5.Total number of Yankee extra base hits?0
6.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight

Soriano

7.Name a Yankee you think will have the best defensive play of the gameNo one
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?Soriano/Betances

BREAKING NEWS: We have an actual winner. After tying with GriffMan last night, HighFlyers28 had enough of these "soccer" like conditions. Today he stands atop the mountain of prediction glory with 4,000 points, giving him the victory. Can anyone topple this clairvoyant titan?

4/12/14 Daily Predictions & Fun Questions

1.How many innings does the opposing team starter pitch?
2.Total number of strikeouts by the Yankee starter only?
3.Total number of earned runs allowed by the Yankees' bullpen?
4.Total number of walks given up by Yankee pitchers?
5.Total number of Yankee extra base hits?
6.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight
7.Name a Yankee you think will have the best defensive play of the game
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?

Medieval Weapon of Choice?

Mac and Cheese: What cheese or cheeses do you use?

Do you exercise?

Least favorite Olympic event?

Hiroki Kuroda will pitch for the Yankees this afternoon. If they can hold on and beat the Red Sox, it would guarantee a series split, at the very least. I don't know about you, but I plan to root root root for the home team. Let's Go Yankees.

Brian Cashman defends offseason moves

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Cashman says the Yankees tried to fix what they could during the offseason, and that there were just more talented outfielders available than infielders.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has said that he stands by the team's offseason moves, despite the recent injuries to Brendan Ryan, Mark Teixeira and David Robertson. "We wanted to fix as much as we could, but acknowledged that we couldn't fix everything that needed to be addressed. That's with the money we were in position to spend as well as the available talent. The better talent was really heavily in favor of the outfield rather than the infield."

I would agree that the available talent was favored towards outfielders, but Robinson Cano waves hello from Seattle. Then again, even if the Yankees had Cano at this point, it wouldn't help in terms of filling the holes at first, third or shortstop. As much as I like Jacoby Ellsbury (and really enjoy seeing multiple people on the team with the ability to steal bases), I still feel like the Yankees didn't really need to sign both Ellsbury andCarlos Beltran, since the outfield was already full. Yes, the Yankees signed Kelly Johnson, Brendan Ryan and Brian Roberts, but they did absolutely nothing in terms of a backup for first base.

Cashman went on to say, "we were open with the infield and the bullpen would be unanswered questions that everyone would need to stay tuned with as a developing story." Obviously, part of the game is that players are going to get hurt. I understand that, but now that the season is officially underway, I don't really want to stay tuned about the infield and the bullpen anymore. Let's imagine that Johnson gets hurt tomorrow. Who would play first base then? Francisco Cervelli, who has never ever played there? Girardi thinks that Tex will be back by the beginning of May, which is good news, but doesn't change the fact that there are not enough infield options right now. I hope that at some point, Cashman trades one of the surplus catchers for infield help in a deal that blows our minds and makes me feel bad for questioning the infield plan.

Now that the season is in full swing, and the Yankees have had to put players on the DL, do you still agree with the big offseason moves for Ellsbury, Beltran, Brian McCann and Masahiro Tanaka? Do you think that the Yankees should have put a little more focus into creating an infield backup plan? Are you more concerned with the bullpen? Or do you agree with Cashman 100%?

Yankees 7, Red Sox 4: Yankees hit some dingers

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The Yankees hit five home runs on the day as they beat the Red Sox 7-4.

From the first inning on, the Yankees' lineup made sure their would be no repeat of yesterday's run-scoring drought. Brian McCann hit two home runs and the Yankees hit five on the day. That combined with Hiroki Kuroda's decent effort on the mound gave the Yankees a 7-4 win over the Red Sox.

After Kuroda stranded two runners in the top of the first, the Yankees took the lead in the bottom half of the inning. Jacoby Ellsbury kept the inning alive with a bunt single with two outs. The next man up was Carlos Beltran, who smashed a John Lackey pitch over the right field wall. That gave the Yankees an early 2-0 lead.

The Red Sox were able to get those runs right back in the top of the second. After Xander Bogaerts reached on a liner that just went over Brian Roberts' glove, A.J. Pierzynski took a Kuroda pitch into the second deck to tie the game.

A couple innings later, the Yankees retook the lead with a couple home runs. McCann led off the bottom of the fourth by taking a Lackey pitch into the second deck to give the Yankees the lead again. The next man to come to the plate was Alfonso Soriano. He too homered. His was not a monster shot like the others, but it counted all the same. The Yankee lead was now back up to two runs.

Two innings later, the middle of the lineup increased the Yankees' lead. Beltran led off the inning with a double and came around to score when McCann launched another home run. The score was now 6-2.

In the top of the seventh, Kuroda started the inning by walking Jackie Bradley Jr. and Daniel Nava. He struck out Dustin Pedroia in the middle, but after the second walk, Kuroda's day was done. It wasn't the prettiest effort from Kuroda but it was solid. He went 6.1 innings allowing four runs (only two of which came with Kuroda on the mound, more on that in a second) on six hits and three walks.

Matt Thornton came in to face David Ortiz. He struck out Ortiz but was then left in to face Mike Napoli. Napoli was hit by a pitch to load the bases. That brought Mike Carp to the plate. Carp singled through the shift to score two runs to make the score 6-4. That was it for Thornton and Dellin Betances came in. Betances got the count to 0-2 and on the third pitch Carp tried to steal second and was thrown out by McCann to end the inning.

After the Yankees stranded two in the bottom of the seventh, Adam Warren came in for to pitch the top of the eighth. He pitched a 1-2-3 inning, striking out two.

In the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees added to their lead thanks to a long Kelly Johnson home run that went into Monument Park. Yangervis Solarte then singled, followed by a Dean Anna double. The Red Sox asked to review the double, as it looked like Anna's foot may have come off the bag while the tag was being applied. Despite Anna looking pretty clearly out, the umpires upheld the call. That missed call wouldn't amount to anything, however, as neither Brett Gardner or Roberts could bring home the runners.

Shawn Kelley came in to pitch the ninth. Kelly pitched a 1-2-3 inning to finish off the game and give the Yankees a 7-4 win.

The series finale against the Red Sox is tomorrow night at 8:05 eastern. Ivan Nova will get the start for the Yankees, while Felix Doubront will go for the Red Sox.

Box score.

Joey Votto and the case for 2nd place (in the batting order)

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With the Reds moving their best hitter to the second spot in the line-up, is it finally time to reconsider how batting orders are constructed?

For nearly the entirety of baseball history, a team's best hitter has been third in the batting order. So, with Joey Votto hitting second this Saturday afternoon for the first time since Aug. 8th, 2008, does that mean he's no longer the Reds' best hitter or that the tide has turned on yet another one of baseball's long-held unwritten rules?

The numbers for Votto -- who has spent the overwhelming majority of his career plate appearances (3,235 out of 3,833, or 84%) hitting third in the line up -- are hardly indicative of how he will perform from the No. 2 spot. But the stats supporting a shift in philosophy (and Votto's place in the batting order) are fairly overwhelming. In fact, several pieces done by journalists regarding the idea have mentioned Votto specifically, most notably Sports Illustrated's Joe Sheehan.

While it's always made theoretical sense, the idea rose to prominence after being featured in The Book, a well-known Sabermetrics tome by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andy Dolphin. The book states rather clearly your best bat can (and should) sacrifice getting slightly more men on base in front of him because of the extra at-bats they will pick up throughout the season.

With your best all-around hitter getting roughly 20 more plate appearances per season, it likely gives the players hitting behind him more opportunities to bat with at least a man on base. And with more chances to drive in runs, the chances of them being driven in obviously increases.

This being baseball, there are detractors both in and out of the statistical orthodoxy. Some, including John Dewan writing for Bill James Online, have made the argument that the amount of runners on base -- which in 2006 averaged out to 28 more between the second spot (323) and the third spot (351) -- isn't worth the additional at-bats, no matter how efficient a hitter might be. But the Reds aren't the only team that have tried this move recently.

Last year both the Yankees and Twins put their best hitters -- Robinson Cano and Joe Mauer, respectively -- in the second spot with solid results. Cano hit .308/.396/.560 in 118 PA, about one-fifth of his 605 total. Even though his batting average dipped slightly -- he hit .314 for the season overall -- his OPS went up by 56 points when batting second.

Mauer spent even more time last season in the two-hole, batting .310/.385/.464 in a whopping 405 PA. And while his batting average was 14 points lower than his overall line (.324), this was likely a function of his regressing to the mean rather than any discernible difference in quality between his times batting third and second.

So, while it may seem like sacrilege to put the Reds best player higher in the line-up, the stats and experiments seem to indicate that it's at least worth a serious try. And if nothing else, getting someone in the second spot for the Reds that can hit better than .254 is definitely a good idea, no matter what stats you look at.

Cub Tracks Says "Whammy!"

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Welington Castillo wallops the Cards, Champ Kind makes an appearance, the Cubs look for an ace in the draft, while Shark tries to make his case. Hector is hot, Emilio energizes and advises, and Starlin outpaces the Hit King. Is that enough for a Sunday Cub Tracks?

A programming note: this was drafted before Saturday's game. So any angst or exultation resulting from that game will appear in Tuesday's edition of Cub Tracks.

From Comcast SportsNet

From Cubs Den

From Cubs.com

From ESPNChicago.com

From the Chicago Tribune

From the Chicago Sun-Times

Miscellaneous

Today's food for thought

Cardinals extend GM John Mozielak through 2018

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The Cardinals have signed their general manager John Mozielak to a two-year extension, pushing the end of his contract back to 2018. Will we have figured out what the Cardinals Way means by then?

After two Baseball America Organization of the Year awards, two National League pennants and a World Series championship in six years, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak has been rewarded with a two-year extension to his current contract, which now runs through 2018. Whether or not Mozeliak leads the best organization by anyone's standard other than Baseball America's depends entirely on how you define "best", however.

For some, the best organization is simply the one left standing last at the end of each season, something that only the Red Sox have rivaled the Cardinals in over the last decade and a half -- all of which have involved Mozeliak, who's been with the Redbirds for 19 years. With three World Series appearances since 2004 -- including two losses against those very same Red Sox -- and another NLCS appearance to boot, the Cardinals have been as successful as any team could possibly ask for.

If you're measuring things by innovation, however, it's a common perception that only small-market teams lead the pack, leaving mid-market teams like the Cards far behind in rudimentary measures like "wins per dollar spent". Because the Rays and A's have such a small margin for error, it forces them to become lean, mean, sabermetric-ing machines. This has developed into an intense focus on things like efficiently allocating resources, acquiring skill sets the market has undervalued and managing service time for their homegrown stars. It has also lead to a great deal of success, and it is usually the most common attribute associated with either squad.

But it's not as though either team has a stranglehold on any of this, especially in the field of analytics. While number crunching is not commonly associated with the infamous "Cardinals Way", even the team's Director of Scouting Dan Kantrovitz has a master's degree in statistics (from Harvard.) And because of Mozeliak's direction -- along with his hiring prowess -- the organization itself relies heavily on their RedBirdDog scouting report system in order to function as a single organism from top to bottom. Like their World Series rivals, the Red Sox, St. Louis has figured out the perfect balance of building internally and shoring up deficiencies externally by using the techniques of yesterday and today.

This has lead to one of the best farm systems in the majors -- even managing to stay in the top ten after moving nearly all of their best prospects to the majors in a single season -- and one of the game's best young prospects in Oscar Taveras. It's also the reason that the team has the third youngest roster in the majors, with only one starting position player -- outfielder Matt Holliday -- older than 31.

None of this youth movement might have been possible, however, if the Cardinals also didn't have a bit of luck. That would, of course, be their inability to re-sign future Hall of Fame slugger Albert Pujols to a lengthy contract when the player tested free agency two seasons ago. Pujols would have likely provided the double whammy of performing far below his salary and blocking the development of players like Allen Craig, David Freese and Matt Adams by causing a logjam at first base.

Although the team has never been able to spend like the Yankees or the Dodgers, that hasn't stopped it from at least keeping up with the Joneses in the rest of MLB. While they've mostly kept their payroll in the range of 10-15th highest in the league, they've also stayed within striking distance of all but the most enormous of team budgets for much of that time.

All of this has added up to an insanely successful team with Mozeliak at the helm. He, among other things, helped developed the analytical system, resurrected the team's terrible farm system and didn't offer Pujols significantly more than he was worth. He's done this by learning to comfortably straddle the line between the chaos of innovation and the stability of tradition , all while operating like a small market team with what's essentially a big market team's budget.

And that's why, no matter which way you mean it, Mozeliak is one of the best.


Baby Bomber Recap 4/12/14: Mike Ford stays hot in Charleston loss

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Recapping the Yankees' minor league affiliates' results from April 12th.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders:L 1-7, W 2-1 vs. Syracuse Chiefs

Game 1:

DH Jose Pirela 0-3
2B Scott Sizemore 0-3, 2 K, E4 - throwing error
RF Zoilo Almonte 1-3, HR, RBI, 2 K, OF assist - first homer of the season
3B Russ Canzler 0-2, BB, K
LF Ramon Flores 0-2, BB
C Austin Romine 0-3
1B Corban Joseph 0-2, K
CF Antoan Richardson 0-2
SS Carmen Angelini 1-2, double

Brian Gordon 5 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, BB, 2 K
Fred Lewis 2 IP, 3 H, 3 R/2 ER, BB, 3 K, WP

Game 2:

2B Jose Pirela 0-4
DH Scott Sizemore 0-3, BB, 2 K
LF Zoilo Almonte 2-4, SB
3B Russ Canzler 1-4, RBI
RF Ramon Flores 0-1, 2 BB, K, SB
C John Ryan Murphy 0-3, K
1B Corban Joseph 1-3, K
CF Antoan Richardson 0-2
SS Carmen Angelini 1-3

Caleb Cotham 5 IP, 4 H, ER, 0 BB, 3 K, WP, balk
Preston Claiborne 1.1 IP, H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
Matt Daley 1.2 IP, H, 0 ER, 4 K, hit batsman

Double-A Trenton Thunder:L 2-3 vs. Erie SeaWolves

CF Mason Williams 1-3, double, BB - batting .243 this season
LF Ben Gamel 2-4, RBI
DH Tyler Austin 0-4, 3 K
C Gary Sanchez 0-3, BB, K
2B Rob Refsnyder 0-3, K, E4 - throwing error, first of the season
1B Zach Wilson 0-3, K
RF Yeral Sanchez 0-3
3B Dan Fiorito 1-3, K
SS Ali Castillo 0-3, K, E6 - fielding error, second of the season

Joel De La Cruz 6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R/2 ER, 0 BB, K - 47 of 67 pitches for strikes
Aaron Dott 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, K
Branden Pinder 1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB

High-A Tampa Yankees:L 1-7 vs. Daytona Cubs

CF Jake Cave 2-4, double, BB
SS Cito Culver 2-4, SB
3B Eric Jagielo 1-4, double, K, 2 E5 - fielding error(2nd), throwing error(3rd)
RF Peter O'Brien 1-4, 2 K, OF assist
DH Dante Bichette Jr. 0-4, K
2B Angelo Gumbs 2-4
1B Reymond Nunez 1-4, HR, RBI, K
LF Cody Grice 0-3, BB
C Trent Garrison 0-4, 2 K

Dan Camarena 4.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R/4 ER, BB, 3 K, hit batsman - 6-4 GO/AO
Phil Wetherell 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R/0 ER, 2 BB, K, 2 WP
Tyler Webb 2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, WP, hit batsman
Evan Rutckyj 1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, BB, 3 K

Low-A Charleston RiverDogs:L 2-8 vs. Augusta GreenJackets

DH Abiatal Avelino 0-4, K
SS Tyler Wade 0-3, BB, K
RF Aaron Judge 1-4, K - batting .219 this season
1B Mike Ford 3-4, double, RBI
3B Miguel Andujar 0-4, 2 K
CF Brandon Thomas 0-4, K
LF Michael O'Neill 0-4, 3 K
C Luis Torrens 0-4, K, passed ball
2B John Murphy 2-3, 2 doubles, BB, E4 - fielding error (1st)

Brady Lail 3.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R/5 ER, 0 BB, 4 K - 55 of 73 pitches for strikes
Andrew Benak 1.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, WP
Andury Acevedo 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, K, 3 WP
Philip Walby 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 K

Daily Yankees Predictions 4/13/14: McCann comes alive. Now win three out of four.

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Ivan Nova and the Yankees go for the series win against the Red Sox tonight on ESPN. (/violently shudders) McCann's bat comes alive. Last day before new questions arrive tomorrow for the PSA DP.

Winning the wrong way. It always feels so good. The Yankees' offense came alive with the long ball yesterday as they beat the Red Sox (I never get tired of typing that) 7-4. Today definitely showed what typing of power this offense can muster when on point. Some friendly analysis; they should continue doing this. Especially Brian McCann. It was really nice seeing what he is capable of.

4/12/14 Daily Predictions Answers

1.How many innings does the opposing team starter pitch?5.2
2.Total number of strikeouts by the Yankee starter only?5
3.Total number of earned runs allowed by the Yankees' bullpen?0
4.Total number of walks given up by Yankee pitchers?3
5.Total number of Yankee extra base hits?2
6.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight

Soriano/Beltran/McCann/Johnson

7.Name a Yankee you think will have the best defensive play of the gameMcCann
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?McCann

Only 7 participants in yesterday's Daily Prediction. Aaron, Aaron, and Aaron were all both pleased and saddened by the limited amount of math that needed doing. However, they are happy to report that for the second straight day in a row, we have a winner. It was close, as YankeeOutsider, packerpride85, and yesterday's winner HighFlyers28 all tied with 3,000 points. They could not match Billy W's 4,000 points though, and thus fall to his Magic 8-Ball of a brain.

4/12/14 Daily Predictions & Fun Questions

1.How many innings does the opposing team starter pitch?
2.Total number of strikeouts by the Yankee starter only?
3.Total number of earned runs allowed by the Yankees' bullpen?
4.Total number of walks given up by Yankee pitchers?
5.Total number of Yankee extra base hits?
6.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight
7.Name a Yankee you think will have the best defensive play of the game
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?

Any singers/bands that you are slightly ashamed of liking?

"And what would you like as a side dish?" Favorite answer for that question?

Nicknames: Do you have any? If so, what are they?

Long, medium, or short hair: Which do you find the most attractive on someone else?

Ivan Nova will take the mound tonight against the Red Sox. Nova's last two outings have gone from adequate to abysmal. Today's game would be an excellent time to go back to awesome. Maybe the offense can keep those dingers coming. Let's Go Yankees.

Fun fact: I didn't know tonight's game was a night game before writing this post. I simply assumed that ESPN would have it. Lo and behold, I was right. I hope your bodies are ready, loyal PSAers.

Colorado Rockies Top 20 Prospects for 2014

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Colorado Rockies Top 20 Prospects for 2014

The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2014 Baseball Prospect Book. The book has been delayed by my head injury, but it will come out eventually. Thank you for your patience and we still need pre-orders!


All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming stars or superstars. In theory, most Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or unanticipated problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.


Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.


Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Some end up as role players or bench guys. Many don't make it at all.


Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise, and some C+ prospects (especially at lower levels) turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

1) Jon Gray, RHP, Grade A: Borderline A-. All the raw material to be a number one starter, and looks like he has the polish too, with unusually good command for a pitcher who throws this hard. All the standard caveats about injury apply of course as they do with all young pitchers. But I’ll take 100 MPH with a good slider and changeup any day.

2) Eddie Butler,RHP, Grade A-: My first instinct here was B+ but the more I studied him the more impressed I was. His fastball isn’t far off Gray’s and his secondary stuff is quite advanced, particularly the changeup. Gray/Butler should be one hell of a one-two punch. Could end up being one of the steals of the 2012 draft even as a supplemental first rounder.

3) David Dahl, OF, Grade B+: Borderline B. Lost season last year due to suspension and injury but all the tools are here, could be a 20/15 guy in this park, good fielder, seems to do everything well (or better), off to a good start so far in ’14.

4) Ryan McMahon, 3B, Grade B+: Borderline B. Is it just me or are people sleeping on this guy? A second rounder. Bat praised for both power potential and pure hitting ability. Controls strike zone. Good arm, should stay at third base. Early numbers strong. Good athlete. Great makeup. Perhaps he is the player that Ian Stewart was supposed to be.

5) Tom Murphy, C, Grade B:
Borderline B+. He’ll strike out some and I don’t think he would hit for a high average in a neutral park, but the power is genuine and he draws good reviews for his defense. I think we’re looking at a solid long-term regular catcher who could have some All-Star seasons ahead of him.

6) Kyle Parker, OF-1B, Grade B
: I have never understood why so many people seem to be down on him. He’s always been productive and the times I have seen him he’s come across as more than just a masher, a decent athlete for his size with a good arm. He’s not Mike Trout but if he’s Ryan Ludwick that’s still a fine player.

7) Rosell Herrera, SS-3B, Grade B:
Borderline B-. Do not be deceived by .343 average at Asheville. There are a lot of questions here: can he play shortstop? Will the bat be enough if he moves to third base? Will his strike zone judgment hold up against better pitching? At the same time it is possible to be too skeptical, and he did show a broad array of potential talents last year. But he is more solid prospect than future star in my view.

8) Raimel Tapia, OF, Grade B:
Borderline B-: This is an aggressive grade from me for a guy who was in rookie ball but I like what we know so far. He’s aggressive but makes contact and doesn’t strike out much. He dominated rookie ball (wRC+ 141). He can already drive the ball and should produce more home run power as he fills out his 6-2, 160 frame. He has the tools to be a solid defender. He was a mild bonus ($175,000) guy from the Dominican who has outperformed guys with bigger bank accounts. This sounds a lot like Oscar Taveras when he transitioned from rookie ball (with a wRC+ of 143 at the same age) to full-season ball in 2011. I am not saying that Tapia will be that good, but this is a guy who can blossom into something special.

9) Trevor Story, SS, Grade B-:
Borderline C+: I have been a Story advocate so his struggles in the Cal League were disappointing. He still has intriguing power/speed potential and I still like his defensive tools, but his strikeout issues are alarming, even with his fast start in the Cal League this year it is still worrisome. This would be the equivalent of his junior year in college. How would he be viewed if he were heading into the ’13 draft?

10) Chad Bettis, RHP, Grade C+:
I don’t like him as much as I did before the injury in ’12, but I think he can be a decent reliever despite some roughness in the early going.

11) Tyler Matzek, LHP, Grade C+:
Last year a scout told me that Matzek’s stuff was every bit as good as Gray’s and Butler’s and, in a way, more special because it comes from the left side. The difference-maker of course is command consistency, which they have and Matzek does not. His first two starts for Colorado Springs are his career in microcosm: brilliant on April 5th (11 whiffs in five innings, two walks, two hits) and terrible on April 11th (four walks in four innings, four hits, four runs).

12) Christhian Adames, INF, Grade C+:
Very impressive defensive ability, combines reliability with good tools, quickness. Not much with the bat but should have a long career as a utility guy. Makes contact and such players sometimes show unexpected offensive growth after everyone assumes it is not going to happen.

13) Tyler Anderson, LHP, Grade C+:
University of Oregon lefty looks past ’13 arm troubles, throws strikes, classic college-trained southpaw with decent stuff who relies on command. You can make a case to rank him as high as 10th depending on taste, lacks upside of Matzek but a much higher floor.

14) Dan Winkler, RHP, Grade C+:
Does not impress radar guns, all he does is get people out, changes speeds, crosses right-handed hitters up with low three-quarters delivery. Durable, efficient, fourth/fifth starter material in a neutral environment but fly ball tendency could be problematic here. Great value as a 2011 20th round pick from University of Central Florida.

15) Ryan Casteel, C-1B, Grade C+:
Under the radar nationally although Rockies fans are aware of him. Looks like a good power bat, has made good progress on defense but his glove isn't as good as Murphy's, hence Castell is playing mostly first base so far at Tulsa. I don't know how you get both into the lineup but having too many good catching prospects is better than not having enough.

16) Jordan Patterson, OF, Grade C+:
Successful two-way player from University of South Alabama is now a full-time outfielder, power/speed potential in right field, slow start so far at Asheville but it's very early. Nice choice last year in the fourth round.

17) Tommy Kahnle, RHP, Grade C+: Rule 5 pick from Yankees earned spot in big league pen and I think he can hold it. Power pitcher throws hard and posted outstanding strikeout rates in the minors, but was held back as a prospect by spotty control. Even slight improvement would make him a competent reliever and I think he can do that. Broader improvement could make him a closer.

18) Jayson Aquino, LHP, Grade C: Borderline C+ Dominican lefty has made slow progress through the system, dominating lower levels but having some glitches when reaching full-season ball last year. At his best, throws three average pitches for strikes and has mid-rotation potential. Cal League will be instructive but challenging.

19) Sam Moll, LHP, Grade C: Borderline C+: University of Memphis lefty was third round pick last June. Undersized at 5-10 but dominated in college with three-pitch mix, unclear if he starts or relieves long-term in the pros.

20) Wilfredo Rodriguez, C, Grade C: I have liked this guy since he was a high school catcher in Puerto Rico. Still rather raw, but has good defensive tools and a chance to be a solid hitter for average with moderate power. Controls the strike zone well.

OTHERS: Alex Balog, RHP; Christian Bergman, RHP; Jose Briceno, C; Taylor Featherston, INF; Raul Fernandez, RHP; Emerson Jimenez, SS; Johendi Jiminian, RHP; Terry McClure, OF; Dom Nunez, INF; Antonio Senzatela, RHP; Francisco Sosa, OF; Will Swanner, C; Tim Wheeler, OF


I have to say I like this farm system and it strikes me as very underrated.

We'll start with the pitching. Both Gray and Butler have the potential to be number one/two starters at the big league level and both should be ready for trials later this year or in '15. The impact pitching isn't as impressive after that duo but mound talent doesn't dissipate entirely, as there are a wide array of other arms who project as back-end starters or relief contributors. Anderson and the unheralded Winkler could both turn into valuable inning-eaters. The system continues to mine talent from Latin America and projectable fellows like Aquino, Jiminian, and Senzatela could take big steps forward this year.

The hitting side has depth too. Dahl and McMahon are a few years away but both should be solid regulars at least and possibly stars. Closer to the majors we find intriguing power bats in Parker and Murphy. There are many up-the-middle options and they offer different mixes of abilities (and weaknesses): Adames has a terrific glove but might not hit; Story's pure talent is obvious but can he get the zone under control; Herrera needs to prove he's not just an Asheville illusion.

Ramiel Tapia needs to be watched very closely. His early career contains numerous parallels with Oscar Taveras both scout-wise and sabermetrically. That doesn't mean he'll turn out the same way of course, especially since we don't know exactly how Oscar himself is going to turn out. But it does show that you can find excellent talent in Latin America without breaking the bank: his signing bonus was just $175,000.  The Rockies are very effective at finding Latin talent and have been for years.

It's time to start trusting in Dellin Betances

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It's clear that Joe Girardi doesn't trust Dellin Betances yet, but it's time to start trusting him

Another year, another bullpen, and another year of Joe Girardi playing favorites. This season the Yankees went in with a bullpen a little lighter than usual. Mariano Rivera retired and no one with much relief experience replaced him. Joe Girardi is an excellent bullpen manager, but he also has people he trusts and people he doesn't trust. Logically, I suppose it makes sense. He doesn't know what they might do if given too much of a leash too soon. As a fan it's annoying to watch because I want to see the best player in the most important situations. The latest victim of the Joe Girardi trust-watch club is Dellin Betances and it's time for it to end.

The big six-foot-gigantic reliever came into spring and impressed his way onto the team, striking out more batters (11) and giving up less runs (1) than anyone currently in the bullpen not named Cabral or Robertson. He earned his spot and as a pure reliever (now), he should be given more consideration in high leverage situations over the likes of Adam Warren, David Phelps, and Vidal Nuno. Yet it's clear that the exact opposite is happening.

Yesterday, Joe Girardi went out of his way to not use Betances when the game was on the line. In the seventh inning against the Red Sox, Matt Thornton was brought in to face the lefty David Ortiz with two on and one out. He struck him out, did his job, and that should have been the day for him. Instead, Girardi chose to keep Thornton in the game, so he could pitch to the right-handed Mike Napoli. While not exactly nuclear waste against righties, like Boone Logan and Clay Rapada have been before him, Thornton's job is to be the LOOGY and nothing more. He did his job to get Ortiz out, and though there was another lefty coming up, let someone else get the righty out. That's why we have three lefties in the pen, right?

Thornton went on to hit Napoli and give up a two-run single to Mike Carp. In the end, Girardi had to go with Betances anyway. Dellin only ended up throwing three pitches before Carp ran Boston out of the inning. The amazing thing was, though, that when the eighth inning came around, Betances wasn't back on the mound. Adam Warren was in the game and that was it for Dellin.

Game-Entering Leverage Index measures the pressure a pitcher faces when they're in the game. A 1.0 is average, over 1.0 is above-average, and under 1.0 is below-average. As you can see, Dellin Betances currently ranks second-to-last behind Nuno over the five games he has been used in. According to Baseball-Reference, he has also pitched to 14 batters under "low leverage" and only one batter designated as "medium leverage."

PlayerGame-Entering Leverage Index
Matt Thornton1.6
David Robertson1.5
David Phelps1.5
Shawn Kelley1.4
Adam Warren1.3
Cesar Cabral.9
Dellin Betances.6
Vidal Nuno.4

It's certainly early in the season, and Joe Girardi might just be easing him into a big league job, but it has to stop. Right now, he has a higher K/9 (16.62) and lower FIP (088) than anyone else in the bullpen other than Cabral. He has also yet to give up a run and has an impressive 80% ground ball rate. Adam Warren has been surprisingly impressive and David Phelps had that good seven-out save, but how legitimate are they as high-leverage relievers? With an average fastball velocity of 95.1 mph, Betances is the high-velocity strikeout specialist on the team, good for tough situations where only a strikeout will do.

You might think Dellin is simply feasting on lesser competition in low-leverage situations, but that's actually not what's happening. He and Warren actually have the highest Runs better than Average score in the bullpen. RAA quantifies the number of runs a pitcher is over the average player and is weighted against quality of opposition.

PlayerRuns better than Average
Adam Warren3
Dellin Betances2
Cesar Cabral1
Shawn Kelley1
David Robertson1
Matt Thornton1
David Phelps-1
Vidal Nuno-5

According to this, he looks good enough to be trusted when it's late and close. It's early. Things are going to change. This isn't how it will be forever; for all we know, Betances will end up walking the entire universe if given the opportunity. All I'm saying is that there's not reason not to throw him into the deep end. He looks like he could be a strong swimmer.

Adam Warren becoming a late-inning force out of the bullpen

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Thanks to Mariano Rivera's retirement and David Robertson's current injury, the Yankees needed someone to step up in their bullpen; Adam Warren has done just that.

Once spring camp broke, the Yankees decided to take three pitchers who can start in David Phelps, Adam Warren, and Vidal Nuno to Houston and placed them in their bullpen. Given all three can start, it was unclear how exactly they'd be used and who would stand out among the three. Through a week-and-a-half, however, it is Warren who has separated himself from the rest.

When CC Sabathia struggled during the first two innings of the very first game against the Astros, Adam Warren was spotted in the bullpen warming up. This kind of made sense, because Warren was used as the team's traditional long-man last summer. He never entered the game, though, as Sabathia was able to settle down and hold the Astros to six runs through six innings. But, at the time, it figured Warren would, once again, settle in as the team's long-guy who pitched in mostly lower-leveraged spots as opposed to more pressure situations.

Two games later, though, on April 3, Warren was used in a pressure spot instead of a long-relief role. Ivan Nova walked his fifth batter of the evening and was only at 88 pitches, but Joe Girardi had seen enough. The manager went to Warren in a one-run game against Astros' shortstop Jonathan Villar and the right-hander got a quick three-pitch strikeout. After the Yankees tacked on an insurance run, Warren proceeded to pitch a nice and easy 1-2-3 seventh which included a strikeout and two weak ground outs.

Next up was the April 6 win against the Toronto Blue Jays. As you may recall, this was the game where CC allowed a lead-off homer to Melky Cabrera in the first and proceeded to cruise until the second out of the sixth inning. It was a 6-1 game with two out in the sixth, but some balls were hit hard and some other balls found holes and just like that it was 6-4. Instead of using a long-guy or whatever to soak up the final three innings of a five-run game, the Yankees had to go to someone they could trust in the late innings of a two-run game, and, once again, that was Warren. Facing the 8-9-1 batters, Warren was able to induce short flyballs to Moises Sierra and Jonathan Diaz before getting Cabrera to ground back to Warren for the third out. After just a couple of scoreless outings, Warren really seemed to earn Girardi's trust.

Warren's next outing was another pressure spot, this time coming during the team's home opener against the Baltimore Orioles. After Hiroki Kuroda, Matt Thornton, and David Phelps combined to keep the score at 4-2 through the seventh, Girardi went to Warren in a two-run game to pitch the eighth. Instead of pitching against the Astros' and Blue Jays' respective bottom of the lineups, Warren had to face the top of the Orioles' order. He first walked David Lough (whoops) to lead off the inning, thus Vidal Nuno began to warm up thereafter. Warren was able to get the next two batters, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, to flyout, which set up last year's home run leader, Chris Davis, as the tying run. Instead of going to the lefty Nuno in that spot, Girardi stuck with his right-hander and Warren rewarded his manager with a big strikeout of Davis to keep the game at 4-2.

The Yankees have kept going to Warren in close, late-inning games and the right-hander has continued to flourish. During Wednesday's game against Baltimore, Warren came in a tie game in the eighth and was able to keep the game right where it was with two weak fly balls after allowing Adam Jones and Matt Wieters to reach base. In Friday's contest, the Yankees were trailing by two runs against the Red Sox, and Warren was able to hold the game at 4-2 through the top of the eighth. And, finally, in Saturday's game, Warren kept the Yankees ahead 6-4 with another easy 1-2-3 inning, which included strikeouts of Xander Bogaerts and Jonathan Herrera, with a weak ground out of A.J. Pierzynski in between.

Because he pitched in mostly mop-up situations last year, Adam Warren's average leverage index when entering a game was at just 0.56 (anything above 1.0 is higher pressure and anything below 1.0 is lower pressure). This figure, of course, was the lowest among Yankee relievers who made at least 30 relief appearances in 2013. Through his first six appearances of 2014, Warren's average leverage index has more than doubled, sitting at 1.34. That's a pretty big jump for a guy who pitched in mostly low-leveraged situations in 2013.

In terms of Warren's pitch usage and velocity in 2013 and through his first six appearances of 2014? Here are the numbers provided by Brooks Baseball:

four-seamsinkercurvesliderchange up
201328% (94 mph)22% (93 mph)10.8% (80.5 mph)20.6% (86 mph)18.5% (84.6 mph)
201434.7% (94.4 mph)2.7% (94.4 mph)10.67% (81 mph)28% (87 mph)24% (84.8 mph)

I'm a little surprised that Warren's fastball velocity hasn't jumped much at all now that he's in more of a one-inning role as opposed to a long-man role, but maybe that's a small sample thing. What is different about the two sets of data, though, is the usage of his pitches. Warren has thrown his four-seamer, change, and slider more this season than he did in 2013. He still is throwing his curve about the same amount of time this year than he did last year, but it's clear his three go-to pitches are the four-seamer, slider, and change.

When the Yankees voluntarily decided to stay in-house to fill out the rest of their bullpen (Matt Thornton being the exception), we knew someone needed to step up. David Robertson replaced Rivera as closer and Shawn Kelley replaced Robertson as setup man, but we didn't really know who would replace Kelley as the seventh inning guy. Personally, I thought Warren would be one of the last guys who'd fill that role, but so far he has passed with flying colors, as shown by his 0.00 ERA and 1.88 FIP. Sure, there's a lot of season left to be played, and bullpens can change quite a bit as the season progresses, but Warren has done a great job in the late innings of close games for the Yankees.

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