LoHud | Chad Jennings: Joe Girardi has used the same lineup three games in a row, but he says changes are coming.
ESPN New York | Mark Simon: A look at how Brandon McCarthy was able to get hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone during his start against the Reds.
LoHud | Chad Jennings: Rob Refsnyder could be the Yankees' second baseman in 2015 and he seems built for such a job.
ESPN New York | Ian Begley:Michael Pineda will pitch live batting practice in the next few days to determine whether he's ready to progress to the next stage in his rehab.
Recapping the Yankees' minor league affiliates' results from July 20th.
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders:W 16-5 vs. Charlotte Knights
2B Jose Pirela 2-6, 3B, 3 RBI RF Rob Refsnyder 1-6, K - hitting .244 over last 10 games :( LF Zoilo Almonte 3-6, 2 2B, 2 K - hitting .302 over last 10 games 3B Adonis Garcia 3-6, HR, RBI, K DH Kyle Roller 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, BB, K 1B Austin Romine 1-4, 2B, BB C John Ryan Murphy 2-3, 2B, 3 RBI, BB, K CF Antoan Richardson 1-2, BB SS Carmen Angelini 2-5, HR, HR, 4 RBI
Matt Tracy 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 HR - 53 of 89 pitches for strikes, 7 GO/3 AO Jim Miller 1.2 IP, 2 H, 3 K - 21 of 30 pitches for strikes Danny Burawa 1.0 IP, 2 H, ER, K, WP - 10 of 18 pitches for strikes Matt Daley 1.0 IP, ER, K, HR - 10 of 13 pitches for strikes
Double-A Trenton Thunder:L 2-5 vs. Binghamton Mets
CF Jake Cave 1-4 LF Ben Gamel 1-4, RBI 3B Rob Segedin 0-3, K C Gary Sanchez 1-4 DH Peter O`Brien 0-4, K RF Tyler Austin 2-4, 2B, 2 K - hitting .359 over last 10 games 1B Francisco Arcia 1-4, RBI 2B Casey Stevenson 1-3, 2B SS Ali Castillo 0-2, BB, K
Dan Camarena 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 3 HR - 56 of 94 pitches for strikes, 0 GO/2 AO Phil Wetherell 2.0 IP, 2 BB, 2 K - 21 of 37 pitches for strikes, 3 GO/1 AO Nick Rumbelow 1.1 IP, 2 K - 11 of 16 pitches for strikes
CF Danny Oh 1-4, RBI SS Cito Culver 1-4, K 1B Greg Bird 1-3, BB, K DH Dante Bichette Jr. 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, K 3B Eric Jagielo 2-4, HR, RBI, K RF Aaron Judge 2-4 - hitting .395 over last 10 games 2B Angelo Gumbs 0-4, 2 K C Trent Garrison 1-3, K - hitting .342 over last 10 games LF Anderson Feliz 1-2, SB
Miguel Sulbaran 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, HR - 8 GO/3 AO Jacob Lindgren 1.2 IP, H, 2 BB, 3 K - 2 GO/0 AO Brett Gerritse 1.1 IP - 3 GO/1 AO Cesar Vargas 1.0 IP - 2 GO/1 AO
Low-A Charleston RiverDogs: L 14-3 vs. Augusta GreenJackets
LF Michael O`Neill 1-4, 2B, 3 K - hitting .308 over last 10 games SS Tyler Wade 0-3, RBI, BB CF Dustin Fowler 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, K, throwing error (3) 3B, Miguel Andujar 0-4, K, SB, fielding error (22) C Eduardo de Oleo 0-3, BB, K 1B Reymond Nunez 0-4, K DH Kale Sumner 0-4, 3 K 2B Gosuke Katoh 0-1, 2 BB RF Brandon Thomas 0-3, 2 K, fielding error (5) - hitting .149 on the season
Omar Luis 2.0 IP, H, 2 ER, 3 BB, K - 26 of 55 pitches for strikes, 5 GO/0 AO Evan Rutckyj 1.0 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, K, HR - 21 of 51 pitches for strikes, 1 GO/1 AO Philip Walby 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, BB, K - 21 of 35 pitches for strikes, 2 GO/0 AO Stefan Lopez 3.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 K, HR - 34 of 46 pitches for strikes, 5 GO/2 AO Kale Sumner 2.0 IP - 11 of 16 pitches for strikes (!), 1 GO/4 AO
Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees:W 7-4 vs. Jamestown Jammers
CF Devyn Bolasky 2-5, SB - hitting .304 over last 10 games C Luis Torrens 2-4, 3B, RBI, K, HBP, PO, threw out runner - hitting .425 over last 10 games 2B Ty McFarland 1-5, RBI, SB, throwing error (10) DH Isaias Tejeda 1-3, 2B, 2 RBI, BB 1B Connor Spencer 1-4 SS Vince Conde 0-4, RBI, SB RF Nathan Mikolas 2-3, BB, SB 3B Renzo Martini 2-3, RBI, BB - hitting .300 over last 10 games LF Daniel Lopez 0-4, 3 K
Matt Borens 4.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 K - 6 GO/4 AO Jordan Cote 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 K - 4 GO/4 AO
The 2014 trade deadline is creeping up on us, and while it looks like Brian Cashman will mainly be focusing on pitching, adding a bat, especially a right-handed bat, probably wouldn't be too bad of an idea. Since the Yankees cut Alfonso Soriano from the roster, they haven't really filled that right-handed bat off the bench role to come in against lefties. Right now the Yankees don't even have a true fourth outfielder since all they have is Zelous Wheeler and Kelly Johnson to fill in there. It might not sound like that big of a deal, but after seeing Johnson play out of position almost every day, it would be nice to actually have someone who doesn't have to fake it out there.
One potential target is John Mayberry, who despite having league-average overall numbers, has been killing left-handed pitching for years. He has a fairly pedestrian .212/.306/.398 batting line on the season, but if you keep him out of the lineup against right-handed pitchers, you suddenly have a 140 wRC+ hitter against lefties. That would be better than anyone the Yankees have right now with at least 30 plate appearances against southpaws. Most of those players are starters, the only other one of them that could be considered a possible bench player is Kelly Johnson, and he's at about a league-average 106 wRC+. Mayberry would actually be a legitimate lefty-killing option for the Yankees.
He also offers some defensive versatility, which the Yankees seem to like so much, as he can play all three outfield positions and would also be able to serve as an actual backup first baseman, unlike what Kelly Johnson has been doing all year. He doesn't play any of them too well, but it can't be any worse than what we've already seen at first base when Mark Teixeira isn't there.
The Phillies are on the verge of a fire sale, at least many contenders will hope they pull the plug; you never know with Ruben Amaro. Mayberry might not be a free agent until 2017, but he's starting to get expensive for a club who might be about ready for a rebuild. He's 30 years old, so if they are open to dealing him, they could take a young fringe prospect in hopes of getting some youth into the system.
While most teams will be checking in on Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley, the Yankees could also look into Mayberry as an important bench piece for this year and the next few seasons. While they don't seem to go after many right-handed hitters as free agents, every year it seems they're acquiring a right-handed bat for the stretch run. Last year it was Soriano and Mark Reynolds, before that there was Austin Kearns, Casey McGehee, Jerry Hairston, and others. It's just something that Cashman always does, but getting Mayberry would actually allow them to avoid needing to do this again next year and the year after that. The Yankees have already scouted him earlier in the season, so they might have already done their homework.
The Yankees, fresh off of a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds, face off against the Texas Rangers for a four game series. Rookie pitcher Shane Greene takes the mound while you, our loyal PSA commenters, take the floor in today's Open Thread.
The second half of baseball has begun and the Yankees are doing that winning thing we so love them to do. The pitching has been great. The offense has been great. The defense has been....there? Visible? I'm trying to think of a proper word to use that doesn't sound too negative. I'll come back to that. Either way, winning is much more fun than losing. Sweeping the Cincinnati Reds was definitely the right way to begin the second half. Following up with a four game sweep of the Texas Rangers would be even better. In fact, I dare say that not losing any games from now until the end of the season would be the most ideal situation.
Well, we all want things. Right now, what I'd like from all of you is some input. The reason there are no Daily Predictions with this Open Thread is because I wanted to see if people still actually want to do them. The participation in them has definitely lessened over time, and it's just not as much fun making them out if only the same five to seven people are the only ones participating. Since the original purpose of these threads were for the community, I figure that rather than continue with the old idea or come up with something new, I'd ask everyone else what they'd like these threads to include, or if people still want them around in general.
Thread Idea Questions
Do you want to continue doing the Daily Predictions?
If so, should we keep them the same or restructure them somehow?
If not, what would you like to use these threads for now, if anything?
As always, use this as your Open Thread for the day. I'd appreciate the input from all of you.
Can the Yankees build on the momentum from a sweep against the Reds when the Rangers visit Yankee Stadium?
The Yankees started the second half with a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds at home in which the starting pitching continued to be a strength and the offense came alive. Playing well at home in the second half is very important for the team who did not take advantage of the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium in the first half, and a long homestand to kick off the second half is a good way to get started on that. The Yankees welcome the Texas Rangers to the Bronx for four games starting tonight. What do they have to look forward to in the series?
Due to injuries that have popped up at an alarming rate in 2014, the Texas Rangers are not playing like we have come to expect them to. They currently sit in last place in the AL West division, 22 games back of the leaders. They enter the series in New York having lost two straight games to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Miles Mikolas is set to start the first game for the Rangers, coming in with a 10.05 ERA in three starts on the season. The right-hander gave up four runs in 5.2 innings against the Angles in his last start on July 12th. He'll oppose Shane Greene for the Yankees, who struck out nine Orioles in his second start of the season his last time out. Tuesday's game features Nick Martinez against Chase Whitley. Martinez currently sports a 5.12 ERA in 67 innings pitched this season. Rangers ace Yu Darvish will oppose David Phelps on Wednesday. Darvish is turning in another fine season with a 2.88 ERA and an 11.36 K/9 in 122 innings this season. Brandon McCarthy will start the series finale matinee on Thursday opposite Colby Lewis. Lewis' ERA currently sits at 6.37 in 89 innings on the season.
Adrian Beltre has been the best offensive player (14 home runs, 149 wRC+) for the Rangers who has managed to not end up with a season-ending injury of some sort. Alex Rios is also having a fine season with a 103 wRC+. The Yankees will have to contend with Elvis Andrus' speed on the bases with his 20 stolen bases on the season, but his 76 wRC+ isn't much to fear. Closer Joakim Soria lurks in the bullpen with a 12.06 K/9 and 2.59 ERA on the season.
Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link.
Breaking: Hitting an Aroldis Chapman fastball is hard.
Although the Yankees already had the series victory in hand entering yesterday's matinee against the Cincinnati Reds, it felt like a game they had to win. They had received brilliant pitching from Hiroki Kuroda and handed the ball to Dellin Betances with the lead. For the 2014 Yankees, that strategy of trusting Dellin has been almost unbeatable, so it felt like the win was in the bag. Todd Frazier's stunning solo home run against Betances threw the seemingly secure game into disarray, and suddenly, the Yankees found themselves in a bottom of the ninth scenario facing dominant Reds closer Aroldis Chapman in a tie game.
They had already used both Betances and David Robertson, and Shawn Kelley threw over 20 pitches the day before, so the outcome of the game was going to be dependent on the weaker part of their bullpen if they did not score. So again, even though they would have had the series victory regardless, it would have been a crushing loss to drop the finale. Fortunately, the Yankees sent Jacoby Ellsbury up to bat to lead off the ninth, and he responded with arguably the team's best at-bat of the season.
Consider:
1) The aforementioned scenario of entrusting an extra innings game to shaky middle relief. 2) The flamethrowing southpaw Chapman is even more brutal against lefties like Ellsbury than righties. Prior to yesterday's game, they were 22-for-208 against him in his four-year career, a dismal .106 batting average with minimal power (.135 slugging percentage). Basically, Chapman turned lefties into an even worse version of Randy Johnson with a bat (Johnson was .125/.153/.152 with a -22 OPS+ in his career at the plate). 3) Chapman has a preposterous 0.50 FIP in 2014 with an equally ridiculous 18.3 K/9. Only nine of 21 lefties had even made contact against him this year. 4) All nine pitches to Ellsbury were clocked at a minimum of 100.8 mph. As Paul O'Neill remarked on the YES telecast, it is extremely difficult for lefties to pick up the location of a ball going so fast while also coming from an unorthodox windup, and to decide whether or not to swing.
The odds were stacked against Ellsbury, and yet he ended up sparking the eventual game-winning rally. How did he do it?
Pitch 1
As previously noted, all nine of Chapman's pitches were 100+ mph heaters, and he wasn't screwing around to start the at-bat. The first pitch was a 100.9 mph fastball that was a tad high, and Ellsbury got the early advantage in the count.
Pitch 2
Chapman's next pitch was near the heart of the plate, but when the pitches are over 100, even those are damn difficult to catch up to. Ellsbury could only foul it back. Strike one.
Pitch 3
Another blazer toward the middle, and again, it's a challenge for Ellsbury to handle it, even though the location barely changed:
Strike two. Chapman now has Ellsbury right where he wants him and the Yankees appear to be destined for an uninspiring start to the ninth.
Pitch 4
Chapman's fourth pitch is by far his fastest at a crazy 103.2 mph. It's nowhere close to the plate though, and Ellsbury takes it for ball two.
Pitch 5
The fifth pitch is low in the strike zone and Ellsbury reacts quickly to foul it off.
Pitch 6
Reds catcher Brayan Pena is a very good pitch framer, and according to Baseball Prospectus, his Framing Runs per 7,000 is 28.5, even better than the acclaimed Brian McCann's 26.3. His soft hands are on display here when he tries to ease a slightly high 102.1 mph pitch from Chapman into the strike zone for a called strike three. It's a tough take by Ellsbury too, as it can be tempting to try to fight off the pitch to stay alive. He decides to take it though, and Angel Hernandez actually comes up with a good call here: ball three. The count is full, and Chapman doesn't want to issue a leadoff walk, especially with a baserunner as smart and speedy as Ellsbury.
Pitch 7
Right, it's hard to lay off that pitch so close to the strike zone, and Ellsbury offered a classic "emergency hack" to foul it off. Pitch seven is almost identical to pitch six, save for a tick slower on the radar gun at 100.9:
Pitch 8
Chapman returns to the strike zone with a 101.8 mph heater in pitch eight, and Ellsbury doesn't miss it by much. Sitting at home, Alfonso Soriano ponders how an at-bat could possibly go on for this long. He spies some guacamole on the table and reaches for it from his chair.
Chapman nails the inside part of the plate, but Ellsbury, who moved a hair back in the batter's box, is now able to center it and he smokes a grounder the opposite way through the left side for a base hit, his fourth of the day. He is only the 21st lefthanded hitter to ever get a hit against Chapman in 235 regular season games.
A stolen base, a wild pitch, an out, and a sun-aided pop-up single later, McCann becomes the 22nd with the game-winning hit, but everyone knows who the real hero is.
From this analysis, I can conclude that Jacoby Ellsbury is good at baseball. #HotTakesOnHotDays. Now would someone please clean up the guac, because Wells isn't helping.
The Blue Jays, who have been plagued by injuries but are still in the playoff hunt while playing in the unusually weak AL East, have holes at third base and in the outfield, which makes Headley and Denorfia logical fits.
Headley has struggled through a tough season, but he's rebounding just in time for trade season, with a .323 batting average in July. And yet, some warning signs still surround the Padres third baseman. Despite his improved performance, he has 16 strikeouts in 65 at-bats this month—with no walks. He's also homered once since June 14, and his season OBP still sits below .300.
But that likely won't dissuade the Jays. 27-year-old corner infielder Juan Francisco is currently manning the hot corner, and though he has been serviceable this season, with a .234/.309/.502 line across 230 plate appearances, the Jays would likely prefer the presence of a veteran hitter with a history of success. Plus, just as Headley is trending upward, Francisco is slumping majorly, with a .286 OBP in July that is a carryover from his .169/.217/.369 line in June.
If the Jays don't choose to pursue Headley, other teams certainly will. The Yankees have been an oft-mentioned suitor for the third baseman, and the team's lack of an established player at his position, combined with a ballpark that would be a welcome switch from the expansive Petco Park, might make Headley a prime choice to move to New York. Given the Blue Jays' and Yankees' nearly identical records, each team could make a bigger push than usual to acquire Headley's services—for the sake of bringing him on as much as keeping him away from the other.
In addition to Headley, the Jays are pursuing Denorfia, a .275 career hitter who can play all three outfield positions. Though his numbers have dipped this year, Denorfia would likely still be a favorable upgrade from Anthony Gose, who has registered five extra-base hits and driven in six runs in 140 plate appearances.
It appears Girardi took that into consideration when planning out his lineup for tonight because it's certainly missing a few important pieces. The top of the order stays the same with Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and Jacoby Ellsbury up top, however this soon start looking very different. Carlos Beltran remains the designated hitter while Kelly Johnson gets the start at first base with Mark Teixeira on the bench. I'll be shocked if this ends poorly. Lineup regulars Brian Roberts and Ichiro Suzuki stick around while Francisco Cervelli fills in for Brian McCann behind the plate and Zelous Wheelers gets his first start at third base since before the All-Star Break. They clearly know who they're facing today and they decided to take it easy on them.
If you're wondering why Teixeira isn't out there, it's because he's hurt:
Mark Teixeira out three or four days with strained lat muscle, Joe Girardi says. #yankees
It doesn't sound too serious, but here's another sign that Tex is starting to break down because he's been hurt several times this season. He'll avoid the DL for now, but if it doesn't clear up in a few days, expect a move to be made. Also prepare yourself for another extended look at Kelly Johnson at first base. I'd like to know how many times they're going to run him out there like he knows what he's doing and then be surprised when he messes up.
Keith Law believes that top Yankees prospect Aaron Judge hasn't finished moving through the system this year just yet.
I believe he will. "@YourSource123: @keithlaw Any chance Aaron Judge gets moved up to Double AA this year?"
After missing the entire 2013 season, Judge debuted this year and has seen nothing but success. He started out in Low-A Charleston where he hit .333/.428/.530 in 278 plate appearances before moving up to High-A Tampa where he has hit .311/.427/.495 so far. While the competition he's faced hasn't slowed him down much, he's still just 22 and has yet to show the home run power that many believe he should possess. As exciting as it would be to move him up to Double-A, it's not entirely necessary just yet. Either way he'll start 2015 off in Trenton and hopefully he'll begin to see some of that power develop.
Here's what I'm expecting from the rest of this Rangers season:
Here's a breakdown of the pitching match-ups against the team that employs Derek Jeter:
Miles Mikolas: 0-2, 7.53 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, .431 BABIP, 43.7% LOB, 4.12 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 0.2 WAR - Last three starts: 16 runs allowed in 14.1 innings
Shane Greene: 2-0, 7.90 K/9, 3.29 BB/9, .200 BABIP, 71.4% LOB, 3.65 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 0.3 WAR - Two career starts: 2 runs allowed in 13.1 innings
Thoughts: Miles Mikolas has perhaps the worst rate stats of all time while Shane Greene has been pretty lucky. All of that is in a pretty minuscule number of innings but baseball is a pretty big jerk.
Nick Martinez: 1-6, 3.30 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, .300 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 5.99 FIP, 5.88 xFIP, -0.3 WAR - Last three starts: 12 runs allowed in 14.1 innings
Chase Whitley: 4-3, 6.59 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, .352 BABIP, 70.5% LOB, 3.98 FIP, 3.97 xFIP, 1.1 WAR - Last three appearances: 7 runs allowed in 8.2 innings
Thoughts: Chase Whitley just sounds like a WASPy affluent east coast kind of guy. Chase Whitley was born to wear pinstripes.
Nick Martinez is threatening to join the pantheon of butt turd awful starting pitching seasons among the likes of Aaron Myette, Rob Bell, and Tony Mounce.
Yu Darvish: 9-5, 11.36 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, .323 BABIP, 78.7% LOB, 2.76 FIP, 3.04 xFIP, 3.7 WAR - Last three starts: 11 runs allowed in 17.2 innings
David Phelps: 4-4, 7.84 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, .290 BABIP, 73.6% LOB, 4.39 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 0.8 WAR - Last three starts: 5 runs allowed in 19.1 innings
Thoughts: The Rangers have truly become a win-on-Darvish-day, pray-for-a-week team. Had there been any humor in this world, this would have been a Darvish vs. Tanaka start but Tanaka got hurt proving once again that Darvish is king of the Japanese pitchers.
Maybe David Phelps has some Japanese ancestry and will play along.
Colby Lewis: 6-7, 7.89 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, .413 BABIP, 66.2% LOB, 4.11 FIP, 4.34 xFIP, 1.3 WAR - Last three starts: 15 runs allowed in 13.1 innings
Brandon McCarthy: 4-10, 7.72 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, .347 BABIP, 67.5% LOB, 3.69 FIP, 2.87 xFIP, 1.5 WAR - Last three starts: 4 runs allowed in 18.1 innings
Thoughts: It's literally our old pal Brandon McCarthy! He's back in the American League but he's not a gross Oakland A anymore! He's making jokes about finding a place in New York is like the show Naked and Afraid! His wife can't make it to the stadium on time because whoa crazy New York traffic! He's so lanky but in pinstripes now!!
fWAR still likes Colby a lot and that's fine by me because I still like Colby a lot. Unfortunately, it's because fWAR thinks Colby has been unlucky when really he's just been Roy Oswaltian hittable. :(
New York Yankees (50-47, 2nd Place in AL East)
Rangers' Record vs. New York: First series in 2014
New York's Recent Results: 3-0 home series sweep of the Cincinnati Reds
New York's Home Record: 21-23
Yankee Stadium Park Factors (LHB/RHB): HR: 133/125 - Runs: 104/107
As you know from the book Billy Beane wrote, "Moneyball" means taking as many pitches as possible hoping to draw a lot of walks. But seriously, folks, it means that teams with limited financial resources need to find creative -- often overlooked or undervalued -- ways of maximizing talent for the money available to spend.
Sometimes this means trading away more established, and costly, "stars" in exchange for lesser known, lesser paid players who can approximate the value. Other times it means coveting, or taking chances on, players with warts, question marks, or skills not fully appreciated by the market.
If you're looking for young, cost-controlled and superlative talent, who wouldn't want to have Jose Fernandez, or Matt Harvey, or Martin Perez, or Matt Moore? Trouble is, those great young pitchers are among the 124 current big leaguers who have succumbed to Tommy John surgery. #125 is likely to be Masahiro Tanaka, on whose elbow rests much of the hope for the 2014 New York Yankees who have invested $155M in him.
Here's the big problem with Tommy John surgery. Though the recovery rate is high, unless a pitcher is lucky both with timing of the injury and the speed of the recovery the surgery is going to disrupt parts of two seasons (and often an entire one of them). If you consider that a top pitcher might have 10 really good seasons in him, having two of them disrupted by TJS is a huge blow.
In Tanaka's case he is signed to a 7-year contract one of which has already been severely compromised. If he has TJS it won't be until August, which means all of next season is definitely shot. The 12-18 month recovery time for TJS is not to be taken lightly.
What pitches carry with them the highest risk for UCL damage to the elbow? The slider gets a lot of attention, and for good reason, as it requires a violent torque to produce a sharp break at a high velocity. However, the splitter is a major culprit as well. Take your index and middle finger and spread them out wide and you will immediately see why: You can feel the strain on the forearm all the way down to the elbow. The "pitch of the 2010s" is the cutter and there is some concern that the torque associated with a good cutter could be problematic, though perhaps not as much so as the slider or splitter.
What pitches carry with them the lowest risk factor? Probably the "low octane" fastball and the changeup, which is thrown, ideally, with the same motion, different grip. These are pitches that do not require violent torque or snap or a maximum effort delivery.
We are in an era where 2-season interruptions in health are cropping up like wildfire. How great it would be for an organization to develop quality pitchers whose incidence of injury was a lot lower than that of their peer group.
Enter Tommy Milone. Milone is no ace yet he is currently closing in on 30th all-time in Oakland A's history for wins. Partly this is because better pitchers have been shipped off to rack up more wins elsewhere but part of it is simply that Milone is durable: He is always ready, five days after he starts, to take the ball again. Some of Milone's value is that he's "pretty good" but a lot of his value is that he is as low risk for injury as they come.
This is not to say that the A's, or any other team, will begin using their 2nd round draft picks to secure pitchers who top out at 88 MPH and throw a great changeup, in favor of their electric stuff wielding, high ceiling peers. It is, however, to say that at the very moment the Marlins, Mets, Rangers and Yankees would rather have Milone handy than the superior pitchers they actually have -- but don't have.
Are teams beginning to view young pitchers with crackling sliders, devastating splitters, and high octane fastballs, with less luster as they ponder a whopping one-third of pitchers going under the knife, and into obscurity, for over a year? If not, should they be? Are teams beginning to view young pitchers with only moderate velocity, fastball command and changeup deception as having hidden value due to their increased odds of being durable over the length of their contract and/or career? If not, should they be?
Nothing is changing the pennant race landscape these days like injuries vs. health, depth vs. a lack thereof. Tommy John surgeries are not a reality, they're an epidemic. Why are we obsessively charting pitch counts but dismissively resting hopes on the elbows of pitchers allowed -- no, expected -- to repeatedly torque their elbows in ways the elbow simply isn't meant to be torqued?
Perhaps you don't win a game of attrition with ice or a weight room. You might, however, win it with a really good changeup.
The 2014 Texas Rangers: Last team to win 40 games, first in our heart
Sure the tread came off the tank tonight but it was nice seeing a young guy like Miles Mikolas have an impressive outing and a guy like Rougned Odor come through with some big hits. Kudos, Rangers.
Player of the Game: Mikolas went 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball to pick up his first big league win as a starter. Maybe more importantly, he had to have had the best pitching performance by a non-Yu Darvish Rangers starter in weeks.
When you make more errors at home than any game in 25 years, you're going to have a bad time.
Boy, that sweep against the Reds was a fun way to kick off the second half, wasn't it? Such thrilling times. Sadly, the positive energy generated from such excitement can be extinguished with just one dreadful game. That's what happened to the Yankees tonight in the Bronx against the last-place Rangers and rookie Miles Mikolas. The offense could only manage two runs against the 25-year-old who carried an unsightly 10.05 ERA and equally ugly mustache into action this evening. Yet the hapless offense wasn't even the star of the show, as the defense committed five errors, the most by the Yankees in a nine-inning game in 16 years, and the most at home since 1989. Atrocious.
The game seemed to be going decently at the outset. Yankees scratched out a run in the first when Derek Jeter worked a one-out walk, then moved to second when starter Mikolas flinched and balked. Jacoby Ellsbury beat out an infield single to move Jeter to third, and the Captain came home on a medium fly ball to center by Carlos Beltran to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead.
Shane Greene's defense got him into some trouble in the second. To be more specific, it was literally his own defense that got him into some trouble. With one out, he missed a flip from Kelly Johnson at first base, allowing Leonys Martin to reach, and a batter later, he handled a comebacker from Jim Adduci, then inexplicably underhanded the ball way over Johnson's head:
It was something, to say the least. Although Greene fanned Geovany Soto to end the inning and escape his own jam, defense would haunt him again in the third. A possibly catchable ball fell between Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki in right-center, and shortly thereafter, Brian Roberts couldn't get a handle on a possible double play ball flipped to him by Jeter. The tying run scored, and the Yankees had three errors on the board already. (Greene would later commit his third error of the night on another overthrow to first, though he worked out of trouble.)
Ellsbury picked up the defense in the bottom of the fourth when he jolted a pitch from Mikolas into the right field seats for a solo homer. It was his eighth dinger of the season and his sixth consecutive hit. Ellsbury has carried this offense over the past couple games, and it's been pretty terrific to watch. The Yankees threatened again in the fifth with the bases loaded and one out, but Jeter bounced into his patented 4-6-3 double play to end the threat.
The Yankees' missed opportunities came back to haunt them in the sixth. It looked like Greene would secure a quality start when he retired the first two Rangers, but Texas put those plans on hold with a single to center by Jake Smolinski and an Adduci walk. Soto lined a base hit to left to score Smolinski and all of the sudden, the game was tied. Matt Thornton relieved Greene was got Rougned Odor to hit a grounder toward short, but it went past a diving Jeter to give Texas the lead. (Jeter made the team's fifth error of the night the next inning, but Adam Warren bailed him out.) Shin-Soo Choo exacerbated matters with a single up the middle, and the score was 4-2. One legitimate hit against Thornton, one not so much. Such is baseball.
That was about it for the rest of the game. The bullpens both worked into and out of trouble, and the Yankees actually had a shot to tie it up against closer Joakim Soria with two outs in the ninth. Soria drilled pinch-hitter Brian McCann with a pitch, and that moved Johnson, who had singled, to second. Joe Girardi tried to get Yangervis Solarte going by pinch-hitting him for Francisco Cervelli, but it was to no avail. Solarte took a pitch down the middle, then popped up meekly to end the game.
The Yankees will try to wipe this ugly game out of their minds tomorrow night by sending Chase Whitley to pitch against Nick Martinez. Yes, this is a real Rangers/Yankees matchup in 2014, everyone. Head for the hills.
Jeter broke a Yankees record that stood for almost 80 years.
Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter moved into first place on the team's all-time doubles list by hitting his 535th career two-bagger in the ninth inning against the Rangers.
Jeter had gone without an extra-base hit in his previous 16 games after tying Lou Gehrig atop the list with a double against the Rays on July 1. The Yankee Captain hit just .254/.304/.254 between that contest and his 1-for-4 performance on Tuesday that included the big hit:
Jeter broke Gehrig's team record that stood since 1935, when the Iron Horse surpassed Babe Ruth on the Yankees' all-time list with his 425th career double on Sept. 8 in Game 1 of a doubleheader against the Indians.
Chase Headley, making his New York debut, hit an RBI single to left field in the 14th inning to win the game for the Yankees, 2-1.
Peralta thinks he contracted the chikungunya virus after being bitten by a mosquito while in his native Dominican Republic during the All-Star break last week, per Topkin. The 10-year veteran, who owns a 4.15 ERA in 43 appearances this season, is dealing with fatigue and body aches as a result of the illness, which is not treatable but also isn't contagious and usually clears up within 7-10 days. The Rays' team physician will perform bloodwork on Peralta to find out if he does, in fact, have chikungunya.
The trip to the DL is the first of Peralta's career. In a corresponding move, Tampa Bay recalled left-hander Jeff Beliveau from Triple-A Durham.
Alvarez leaves game
The Pirates picked up an impressive victory over the Dodgers, but it didn't come without a price, as their slugging third baseman left the game in the fifth inning after hitting a leadoff double in the fourth.
Pedro Alvarez was removed from the game tonight due to left knee discomfort.
Alvarez, 27, has a 107 OPS+ and 15 home runs for the surging Pirates, who have won four out of five since the All-Star break.
Zimmerman scheduled for MRI on Wednesday
Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman left in the sixth inning against the Rockies. He tried to beat the relay throw to first base on a double-play attempt but wound up stumbling over first base and fell to the ground with a right hamstring strain. The disabled list sounds likely:
Right hamstring strain for Ryan Zimmerman. MRI tomorrow. "It's concerning," Williams said.
inside you'll see a former Indian not referred to as "LGFT"
Michael Brantleywinsan award: He was chosen as the 2014 Indians winner of the Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association Heart and Hustle Award. Wordy, but still quite the honor.
The Yankees and Rangers played 12 scoreless innings last night. But the Yankees got tired of that in the 12th, so they brought in David Huff. Now, you already know based on the previous sentence that Huff somehow pitched a scoreless 12th. But he wasn't as lucky in the 13th, when he gave up a homer to J.P. Ahrennciobbio'a. Unfortunately for us, the Yankees tied it at 1 in the bottom of the 13th and won it with another single run the next inning.
OK, so this might be improbable, but it could be a good reunion.
I had started crafting this article before the Chase Headley deal, so this might all be moot. But, the fit could be good. Ian Kennedy currently has a year and a half of team control left and is with a team that is obviously in rebuild-mode. They just dealt Huston Street and Chase Headley as nothing more than salary dumps, but they seem to have tightly held on to Ian Kennedy, it seems.
Kennedy was, as you all know, a part of that famous Yankees' draft in 2006 as the 21st overall pick. He did reach the majors relatively quickly, but he only threw 59.2 professional innings with the club from 2007 to 2009. He was then dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Curtis Granderson three-way trade. He had three decent years with that club, pitching above 100 ERA+ in all three years (last year was partial), including the 137 ERA+ year in 2011.
He was then dealt to the Padres where he was pretty bad, depending on whether you prefer FIP or ERA. In 2013 he pitched to a 4.91 ERA and 4.59 FIP between the two clubs, good for a 0.5 fWAR and 0.0 rWAR. This season has been a bit of an improvement. He's pitched to a 3.62 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 129.1 innings of work. He's certainly not the ideal candidate to work closer to that FIP in Yankee Stadium, but it's definitely possible that he could be a good fit.
Even though Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher, his GB% is actually at its highest level at 41.7%, up about 3% from his career norm. His velocity has also been on an upward trend in recent years (87 mph in early 2012, ~92 mph today), which I think is a huge reason for his success. FanGraphs has his Fastball runs at 16.2 runs, while that number was at -11.4 last year.
I don't think Kennedy would be a magic antidote for the Yankees' pitching problems, but he would be a decent workhouse in the back end of the rotation to fill the Shane Greene/Chase Whitley void. Since he has left the Yankees, Kennedy has thrown at least 180 innings in each year. That's worth something. It would be an incremental upgrade in the mold of Brandon McCarthy--he'll give up some home runs, but he'll also give you decent innings (greater than 9 K/9, less than 3 K/9).
Do I think this deal would get done? Probably not. The Yankees just made a deal for Chase Headley, so I think it is unlikely that the two teams link up again even though they were just at the bargaining table. But if the price is right, they could try to make a deal. I wouldn't give up anything big--definitely not Luis Severino or Aaron Judge. But someone like Peter O'Brien? Certainly. Considering the Padres have said that they might not make him available, maybe they think that they can get more. But if they get desperate to receive something in their fire sale, they might try to get something done. He may not be a perfect fit, but he could provide necessary depth in a starved rotation.
Yesterday the Yankees acquired Chase Headley from the San Diego Padres. What does this mean for Alex Rodriguez's future in the Bronx?
Tuesday afternoon, Brian Cashman traded Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula to the San Diego Padres for Chase Headley. Most Yankee fans have rightfully applauded this move while others think that Solarte and De Paula were not worth the two month rental of Headley, who will be a free agent after this season. Whether you are for or against this trade, what's done is done. Headley is now in pinstripes for the remainder of the 2014 Yankees regular season. After the season is over, things get interesting. Or complicated. Pick your synonym.
In case you have forgotten in the midst of these troubling times, Alex Rodriguez is still our regular third baseman. After this season, his suspension will be over with and he will be returning to the Yankees. Whether we like it or not is irrelevant. What is relevant is that when the 2015 season begins, he will be a 40-year-old third baseman, a year removed from the sport, with hip and other injury concerns floating around him. There's little need to bring up the drama, but it is another concern. These issues have to be on the Yankees' mind. Perhaps Chase Headley is their solution.
One of the benefits with trading for rental players is that you have options after the season is over with. If Chase Headley impresses the Yankees, which he probably did last night, he could very well shine in the Bronx. He's one of the youngest third basemen on the market this coming off season and he will come cheaper than Pablo Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez, if the Giants or Dodgers do not extend them. His defense is excellent and removal from the caverns of the beautiful Petco Park could be just what he needs to get his bat back. Still though, however brightly Headley might shine during the 2nd half, there's still the looming shadow of A-Rod's contract.
This is where the real trouble of A-Rod's mega contract comes into play. If they wanted to sign Headley, they would have to essentially pay A-Rod to not play for them. While many fans would probably say yes to the idea, that's a lot of money to throw away to sign a third baseman who probably will not hit as well as a 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez. If they continue on with A-Rod, there's a good chance Headley is not going to want to stay in pinstripes to simply be Rodriguez's back up. Nor should he, when there are other teams out there who will pay him to start at third. It's most likely going to be one or the other.
Which would you go with? Vote in the poll and voice your opinion in the comments.
We did this back in May, when things were going well, though we had just lost 3 games in a row, but all-in-all, the team was playing good ball. Back then the results were 29% approve, 41% neutral, 30% do not approve.
Right now? I have a hard time grading him, because I'm not sure if if he does or doesn't have any payroll flexibility. He claims he does, but we haven't added anyone, which seems to suggest that Bob Elliot's tweet was right.
The Chase Headley thing bugged me, because, I feel, the Yankees gave up pretty much nothing to get him. I also would have liked Brandon McCarthy. We have been rumored to be in on every player in the MLB. I know Alex hates all the rumors, but reporters need to report. He does talk about how much he hated the rumors popping up, I wish he would just ignore/roll with it. It is part of the job.
I'll admit, i'm also tired of the inability to make a decision and stick with it. Brad Mills is available, let's grab Brad Mills. That means we have to ship off Chad Jenkins (again) and DFA Deck McGuire. Ok, that's what we gotta do, do it. Next day, Brad Mills is crap, let's dump him, let's go with, I don't know, Esmil Rogers. Oh and let's bring up Ryan Goins. Why? Because it is Monday. We are going to platoon Darin Mastroianni and Colby Rasmus. Sorry, that was so yesterday, we are going to send out Mastroianni. Is Kratz with the team? Yes? Ok let's send him out.
When Alex took over, we were going to rely on scouts again. Bring in a whole mess of scouts. You'd think that you'd use those scouts to look at say Brad Mills and if they say 'yes he can help us' you wouldn't give up on him after 2 innings. We go into the season saying Ryan Goins can be an MLB second baseman. Then we decide he can't. We try guys at random to see if someone can do it. Now I'm pretty ok with the Kawasaki/Tolleson platoon, it seems to be going well, but we bring back Goins.
We start the season with Jeremy Jeffress in the pen. A couple of games into the season, we decide he's no good. We can't even wait 10 days so that we could actually call up someone from our 40-man roster to take his place.
I do like Alex. I think he's done some good things. I think he's been unlucky. Who expected Josh Johnson to forget how to pitch? He's had bad luck with injuries. But I wish he would show a little patience. Show a little faith in his, and his scouts, ability to judge players. If you don't have scouts that you believe in, get new ones. Relax a bit. Breathe.
Now, none of that means I think he is incompetent. What it means is I disagree with some of the things he's done. It means I think he can do somethings better. I'm in a different place than he is. I do think there must be a lot pressure on him, he must think 'if I get fired, i'll never have a GM job again'.
The Yankees may make another move - or two or three - before next week's trade deadline, but it's players who are already here who need to step up to keep their postseason hopes alive.
It's been well discussed how poor the Yankees' offense has been this season. After following a promising fourteen-run three-game sweep of Cincinnati - an offensive outpouring by their standards - with a total dud vs. Texas, they're sitting tenth in the American League in runs-per-game and eleventh on on-base percentage and slugging. While they've battled hard to overcome injuries in the starting rotation, the lineup has been mostly intact, making the team's inability to score runs consistently all the more maddening. As they continue to piece things together on the mound, it's an absolute necessity for the Yankees to get a better showing from their bats over the next two plus months. Particularly, they need a whole lot more from their two most egregious under-performers, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran.
Brought in on big money, multi-year deals to revitalize a Yankee attack that finished tenth in the AL in offense a year ago - then lost its best hitter to free agency - McCann and Beltran have failed to fulfill their intended role as two thirds of the team's main power supply. Thanks in part to a bone spur in his right elbow that may ultimately require surgery, Beltran's .300 wOBA and 85 wRC+ are his worst marks since his sophomore 2000 campaign. McCann has no apparent injury to blame his struggles on, but he's managed to reach career lows in wOBA - .298, wRC+ - 83, OPS - .672 and walk rate - 6.1 percent. His 9.1 percent home run to fly ball ratio and his .135 ISO have also been major let-downs for a left-handed pull hitter who was expected to take full advantage of Yankee Stadium's short porch in right. As they idle only a few games behind the AL East leading Orioles and the second Wildcard holding Mariners, it's not hard to imagine where the Yankees would be if McCann and Beltran were hitting like - well, McCann and Beltran.
Thankfully there are some hopeful signs to report for both players. Through Monday, in 55 plate appearances in July, McCann was hitting .345/.362/.455 with a wRC+ of 124. That's fueled by a .409 BABIP, but McCann was due for some positive regression on that front after puny totals of .229, .237 and .221 during Apil, May and June respectively. McCann's getting the ball in the air a lot more this month, lowering his ground ball rate to 28.9 percent, which has helped neutralize defensive shifts used against him. ZiPS projects a .252/.324/.425 line the rest of the way for the Yankees' catcher while the more optimistic Steamer chimes in with .258/.327/.450. Those numbers, though wholly unspectacular, would be a huge improvement over what we've seen so far.
Also through Monday, Beltran had slashed .261/.300/.478 over 50 plate appearances dating back to June 28th. He hit three home runs in that stretch and drove in seven. Those numbers aren't stellar either, but he at least looks like a major league hitter again, a sharp contrast to what he was before getting shelved mid-May and during the 4-32 stretch he endured when he was first reactivated in June. Beltran, too, has been buried by an absurdly low BABIP - .228, so he gets a .255/.315/.462 outlook from ZiPS for the remainder of the season and a .272/.336/.474 projection from Steamer. Like with McCann, that kind of production, even if it's not what many envisioned going into the year, would be a huge boost to the heart of the Yankee order - a boost they probably can't find on the trade market.
As of Monday morning, Baseball Prospectus had the Yankees' probability of making the playoffs at 28.9 percent. That mark is seventh best in the AL and third in the East, so they certainly have their work cut out for them, but we're not talking about pigs flying, lottery winning, throw up your hands and do your best Jim Mora Sr. impression territory either. The Yankees currently have about as good a shot at playing in October as Jacoby Ellsbury has of getting a hit in a typical at bat this season. Those odds don't seem so bad when you think of it that way, and if McCann and Beltran start playing to the backs of their baseball cards, they'll seem a whole lot better. In Chase Headley the Yankees now have yet another hitter in their lineup who is due for some positive regression.
36 of the 64 games the Yankees have left will be played at home. While the team has struggled in the Bronx so far, a return to form by their power bats capable of mashing from the left side would go a long way toward reversing that.
The attitudes of some fan bases truly irritate me. Perhaps the Yankee fan base is mellowing in the face of two seasons battling actual mediocrity, but historically the typical view has been that the Yankees are entitled to win games, it's an injustice and a disgrace if they don't, and that the role the rest of the teams are supposed to play is to lose to the Yankees. 29 Washington Generals franchises playing straight man to the Bronx Bombers, I guess. Two World Series years in a row seemed to bring out a similar attitude in Texas Rangers country.
Winning can do that to a fan base. What I love about the A's fan base is that we have always -- by necessity -- embraced the underdog role. In 2012 we were the tortoise who only caught the hare at the finish line. 2012 was magical: No one thought the A's would be any good, especially us. We had no idea and it became a magical ride. Nothing typifies A's fans like the spontaneous chants of "Let's Go, Oakland!" after the final out of an ALDS game 5 the A's lost.
The A's might not have been tortoises in 2013 but they were still David to the AL West's Goliaths, with the Angels making their play by adding more "star power" (Josh Hamilton) to their "star power" (Albert Pujols and Mike Trout) while prognosticators everywhere were relegating the "flukey A's" to predicted 3rd place finishes. The fan base was optimistic, faithful, and passionate and the A's took the AL West for a second year in a row.
In 2014, the A's have spent most of the season with the best record in baseball. Their stock has risen so much that Vegas has them as having as good a chance to win the World Series as any team, and they are getting unprecedented recognition from the All-Star team, ESPN and other national media outlets -- they are a good team and everyone knows it.
Except us. Winning, and the expectation of more winning, has a troubling effect on a fan base. Suddenly it's not ok (even though it is utterly normal) for the A's to play a bad game. Suddenly it's not ok (even though it is completely inevitable) for the A's to lose to a bad team. Suddenly it's outlandish (even though it happens all the time) for a bad opposing player to have a great game. Suddenly losing is a disgrace and winning should be a given.
A season just doesn't work that way. It's a great season if a team loses 62 games and that barometer is quite different from other walks of life. If I lost my wallet 62 times I wouldn't consider it to be a great year. Nor if I got dumped 62 times. So in baseball, losing takes on a different meaning: It's disappointing, for sure, because each game is one you have a chance to win and it's always disappointing to learn that today's game is not one of the ones you actually won.
But one of the things that I think makes baseball so terrific is that no win is ever really assured. Bad teams beat good teams more than once every blue moon, and on any given day a struggling pitcher is liable to beat a top pitcher and bad hitters might come up big while accomplished hitters around him flail all night.
The spread between the best teams and the worst teams, the best pitchers and the worst pitchers, the best hitters and the worst hitters? Not as wide as you might think. And no team ever goes into a game entitled to win that game, nor does any team go into a season with a playoff spot, or World Series trophy, handed to them in advance.
A's fans are truly blessed. Our current team wins more often than any other, and has done so since the start of the 2012 season. That includes all the tough losses in which games were blown, opportunities were lost, wins slipped away or were stolen away by bad calls, bad bounces, bad decisions, or just bad luck. It happens.
My hope is to find that harmonious balance where the team plays like a favorite and yet I am still able to root for them like they were an underdog -- which to me means appreciating every win, accepting losses, even the aggravating ones, as being both normal and inevitable, and being passionate without succumbing to the very sense entitlement I have observed, with disdain, in the fan bases of other successful teams.
If I knew going into a season that the A's would win the World Series, then the journey would be devoid of excitement. If I knew going into a game that "the A's would beat the Astros because they should," then I wouldn't bother to watch because there would be no urgency or drama. The very real threat of losing is what makes winning sweet. And baseball is sweet because there is always the very real threat of losing.
Because no team, not even the best team in baseball, is "supposed" to win games. Each game is its own story, written in real time. There is no "should" because there is no script. The story hasn't been written yet and that's why it's so compelling to watch. I can't wait to see how it unfolds, and I feel blessed to have so much reason to care.
