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Yankees minor leagues in review: The best storylines of 2014

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While the Yankees major league team has been largely disappointing, the minor league system has actually shown a lot of promise this year. There were multiple breakout stars and an overall solid showing from the team's top prospects. Let's take a look back at the best storylines to come out of the 2014 minor league season.

Luis Severino tops the list

After several years of having Gary Sanchez on top of the Yankees prospect list, we finally have a new number one contender in Luis Severino. Practically immediately after Sanchez was crowned as the top prospect in the system he began dropping in value season-after-season. This year, multiple prospect outlets ranked the up-and-coming Severino as the best the Yankee farm system had to offer, and at just 20 years of age and at Double-A it was an exciting thing to see. Severino pitched to a 2.46 ERA with an awesome 10.1 K/9 and solid 2.1 BB/9, while also only surrendering three home runs over 113.1 inning over three levels. Not only is he getting results, but he's being considered as a legitimate top prospect, ranking high on top prospect lists and being considered one of the best pitchers in the minors. It's been awhile since the Yankees have had a prospect that got positive reviews from both evaluators and scouts and it's going to be exciting to see what he can do in 2015.

Aaron Judge is more than meets the eye

After missing the 2013 season due to injury, Aaron Judge finally got a chance to play professional baseball and he did not disappoint. Many people considered Judge to be a lumbering, all-or-nothing power hitter, but he proved everyone wrong when he proved he could basically do just about anything with the bat. Judge showed he had an advanced approach at the plate, and despite his gigantic size, he could control himself and make solid contact with the ball without having to obliterate it. In fact, there was some worry that his home run power was lagging behind the rest of his skill set, but the 22-year-old ultimately ended up with a respectable 17 dingers. He finished the season in High-A Tampa and will get more playing time in the Arizona Fall League, so he still has plenty of time to impress. Many have said that Judge had the best overall season in the organization, so it's probably safe to say that he's ready for Double-A next year.

The resurrection of Tyler Austin

Remember the halcyon days when Tyler Austin hit .322/.400/.559 with 17 home runs across three levels back in 2012 to put himself on the prospect map? Well that player has been non-existent in the year and a half since, leaving many to believe that his prospect status had peaked and it was all down hill from there. It seems, though, that the 23-year-old outfielder just needed time to recover from the wrist injury he suffered in 2013 and in the second half of the 2014 season he came back to life, hitting .302/.353/.483 from July 1 on. Austin will get another chance to perform in the AZL this year and maybe if he continues his hot hitting he could end up in Triple-A next season. It's hard to figure out where Tyler Austin will ultimately end up, but he's shown a propensity to hit at a non-stop rate, despite not having the power of a corner outfielder or the speed and athleticism of a center fielder. If he can hit, the Yankees will find a place for him.

Rob Refsnyder is ready

Refsnyder actually built off of his impossible .293/.413/.413 2013 season in A-ball and came up with something even more impressive this year, hitting for more power with 17 home runs and a .318/.387/.497 batting line. Over the span of one calendar year, he went from intriguing trade chip to possible second baseman of the future and he did not disappoint. While his bat made him a fan favorite, his glove made him an organizational project, as the Yankees neglected to give him a call up to the majors, despite clearly deserving one. The hope will be that they give him a fair shot to win the second base job in 2015, and given the lack of free agent depth at the position and their other needs, there's a really good chance that Refsnyder could lock down the job in spring training. After years of criticism for lacking major league-ready position players, the Yankees finally have one and he looks ready.

The bullpen rises

We've learned that if it's one thing the Yankees organization knows how to do, it's develop relievers. This year was no different as a slew of potential high-leverage relief pitchers made their mark on the system and likely deserved a call up in September. The Yankees drafted the major league-ready arm of Jacob Lindgren, the Strikeout Factory. He didn't disappoint when he struck out 13.9 batters per nine innings and likely could have seen major-league action if not for the excessive workload he had put on his arm between college and pro ball. 2013 draft picks Tyler Webb and Nick Rumbelow also dominated the minor leagues this year and both deserved a September call up that just never materialized. Both pitchers made it to Triple-A this year with a 12.3 and 12.5 K/9, respectively. Between the three of them, the Yankees have a chance to have an elite bullpen filled with closer-level arms and two lefties (Lindgren and Webb) who are more than just LOOGYs. Hopefully next year will be their year and the Yankee bullpen will be ridiculous, and cheap, for years.

Others: Dante Bichette is alive again!, Jake Cave is legit, Ty Hensley actually pitches, Jaron Long might actually be good, Peter O`Brien and the dingers, Jose Pirela tears up the minors

What was the best storyline of 2014?


Yankees lineup vs. Rays - Brett Gardner may not return this season

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Injuries, injuries everywhere.

The Yankees currently sit five games out of the second wild card spot, trailing the Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, and Seattle Mariners. At 10 games back of the division, the picture there is somehow even worse. Chances of the playoffs becoming a reality have all but slipped away. However, despite that, there are still games to be played. Games that feel pretty meaningless at this point, but ones that have to be endured until the team can hopefully revamp itself this offseason.

Here's tonight's lineup for the first of three games against the Rays:

You'll notice that Brett Gardner and Martin Prado are missing from the lineup. Prado is still hobbled by an injured hamstring that cost him a couple of games last week. Joe Girardi put Prado in a couple games over the weekend, but he was obviously not at 100% when running the bases. To keep the situation from getting worse, he's not in the lineup tonight.

Brett Gardner has been diagnosed with an abdominal strain and will see team doctors tonight. Girardi says there are concerns that the Yankees' left fielder may not be able to return this season. It's really unfortunate, as Gardner has been one of the better hitters in the lineup over the course of the year, but there is really no point in pushing him at this point. The team is probably not making it to the postseason, so getting everyone healthy for next season has to be the top priority right now.

Masahiro Tanaka threw 45 pitches in three pain-free simulated innings earlier today. He says he feels better than he did when he pitched a simulated game in Detroit before, but there are still other steps to take before he can return to the big league mound. Next up is a bullpen session before either another simulated game or a start in the instructional leagues. Assuming that goes well, he may be able to return toward the end of the season. Hopefully he is healthy enough to avoid Tommy John surgery, even if that means not getting back to the majors this season.

Rays vs. Yankees, game 1 recap: Ryan Hanigan blocks the path the playoffs

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(Legally, apparently.)

I get that the Yankees already had a very small chance (1.5% before today's games) of making the playoffs, but despite that -- or perhaps because of that -- it feels good to play spoilers this series. With no room for error, the Yankees need to go on a ridiculous run. The Rays didn't let that happen.

The start of the game was the James Loney show. The first pitch he saw was a fastball on the inner third, up at the hands. It's precisely the type of pitch where Loney unleashes his significant-but-often-hidden power. He stood and admired his shot into the second deck, which was understandable, since it sure was pretty. No word from Chris Archer on whether Loney has class.

Loney's next at bat came in the third after Ryan Hanigan, Ben Zobrist, and Evan Longoria had all singled to produce a run. Loney got it done again, this time stroking a sinker on the bottom outside corner up the middle for a single of his own. Three more singles in the fourth, by Kevin Kiermaier, Hanigan and Zobrist brought home what would prove to be the winning run, and ended Hiroki Kuroda's night.

Chris Archer was perfect through his first three innings, but Jacoby Ellsbury caught up with his fastball in the fourth. After Archer barely missed with a 2-2 backdoor slider, Ellsbury was clearly expecting a fastball over the plate, and he got it. 4-1.

The bottom of the fifth was the inning of outfield arms. Archer got himself into trouble by hitting Chase Headley with a frontdoor fastball that stayed too far inside, and then Ichiro Suzuki slapped a single through the left side of the infield. Next up, Stephen Drew blooped a fly ball into short center field, which Kevin Kiermaier charged, as always, at full speed. He bobbled his pickup, and an aggressive runner could have scored, but rather than being aggressive, the Yanks' third base coach was smart, and he had already held the runner before Kiermaier's bobble. Reputations build quickly.

The next batter, Chris Young, knocked another grounder through the infield, this time to Matt Joyce in left field. Joyce -- once an every-day right-fielder -- got off a terrible throw that allowed two runs to score. Drew was held at second. Luckily for Joyce, he got another chance. Ellsbury also singled into left, and this time Joyce's throw was much better. It bounced twice, but it was on target and it beat the runner. Ryan Hanigan set up to the inside of the baseline, but as soon as he saw the location of the throw he moved to receive it, which incidentally, set him up to block the plate legally. Joe Girardi challenged, but the call was upheld. One batter later, Derek Jeter clutchly lined into a double play. And he showed great leadership while doing so.

In the bottom of the eleventh inning, Ichiro hit a one-out single that glanced off of Archer's foot. Yunel Escobar, playing up the middle, would have been able to field, but the deflection allowed Ichiro to reach base, and Maddon elected to pull Archer for Grant Balfour after only 90 pitches.

Chris Archer wasn't great, only striking out three Yankee batters, but he didn't walk anyone either. And he mostly did enough (with a fastball that touched 98 mph) to keep the Yankee batters slightly off balance and let his fielders do their jobs. Performances like this are not the stuff of top-of-the-rotation starters, but they'll do some of the time.

The Bullpen

Grant Balfour has been an adventure this season, and he was one again tonight. He immediately missed badly with a fastball in the dirt, but Ryan Hanigan speared it. The next pitch was a curve, also in the dirt, and Ichiro easily stole second. Ichiro saw an opportunity to get to third with less than two outs, and he got a great jump off second. He would have made it easily, but Stephen Drew swung at a 2-0 curve down and away that he probably should have taken, flying it to short left field. Wil Myers bounced his throw badly, but it didn't matter. Easy double play to end the inning.

Jake and the Box did what Jake and the Box do, with a little help from Kevin Kiermaier.

Some other notes:

  • Yankees broadcaster, talking about other Yankees broadcaster: "This man has never had a banana or ketchup."
  • We later got a riveting discussion about who should be eating broccoli.
  • Why do we suddenly seem to think that September callups are unfair? Don't teams know this is happening so shouldn't they stockpile minor league depth if they can? Why is bullpen matchups in important games a bad thing? Isn't it fun for the fan to get to see the future of her team, to give the David Prices and Alex Torreses of the world the chance to make a first impression? It seems like this complaint is in the air more this year than normal (was listening to the Yanks announcers discuss it), and I couldn't disagree more. I'm proudly in favor of expanded rosters.

Yankees 3, Rays 4: Kuroda smacked around, offense blows rare opportunities, cat yawns

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It was another aggravating loss on Tuesday night, and yet one that just felt so predictable.

During Derek Jeter Day on Sunday, the Yankees hoisted the brand spankin' new and in-no-way-marketable flags up around the stadium that had the commemorative Jeter patch logo on them. These flags went up in place of the 30 MLB team flags that are usually there denoting each team's position in its respective division, including the AL East.

Sneaky, Yankees.

The Yankees are wise to hide the standings since those flags really should not be a focus right now, and their caliber of play tonight was indicative of the reason why. It was strange for a one-run game not to feel close at all, save for one inning. Yet that's how it seemed, and I'm sure I'm not the only Yankees fan who felt that way.

Hiroki Kuroda took the mound tonight for the Yankees riding a better streak of late-season starts than has been his tradition over the past couple years, notching a 3.05 ERA and .523 OPS against since the beginning of August. Tonight... was not such a good night. He got off to a promising start by striking out the side in order in the first, but James Loney stopped that string leading off the second by connecting for approximately his 800th homer against the Yankees. Kuroda also gave up a hit to Matt Joyce, though he worked around that jam to end the second. An inning later, the hits kept on coming, as four Tampa singles brought home two runs and ran the score up to 3-0.

All while this was going on, the Yankees were doing nothing against Chris Archer, who retired the first nine batters in order because of course he did. Kuroda wasn't pitching well and the offense wasn't giving him any kind of extended rest on the bench between innings. When he came out for the fourth, he was just gassed. After a groundout, Kevin Kiermaier, Ryan Hanigan, and Ben Zobrist all singled consecutively to make the score 4-0 and Kuroda's day was done. Surprisingly, David Huff entered and stranded the runners on a pair of flyouts.

The Yankees briefly showed signs of life on offense in the next two innings. Ellsbury led off the fourth by belting a solo homer to the short porch in right, his 15th of the season. Although Brian McCann's one-out single was wasted as he was stranded, the offense returned to the plate with vigor in the fifth. Archer immediately ran into trouble by grazing Chase Headley with a pitch and surrendering three straight singles to the unimpressive bottom of the Yankees lineup: a 40-year-old Ichiro Suzuki, a completely lost Stephen Drew, and even Mets castoff Chris Young. The latter's bases-loaded single made the score 4-3. With still nobody out, it felt like the Yankees were actually in the game for the first time all night. Ellsbury followed with a single, and in the middle of the play, chaos ensued.

1) This should not be a stunner for anyone following the Yankees this year, but what on Earth was third base coach Rob Thomson thinking in sending Drew there? I know he wants to be aggressive with a team that hasn't been scoring a lot of runs, but why rush matters? If Drew stays, then it's still bases loaded and no one out. Even a patented Derek Jeter double play scores the tying run. This was the 21st time this year that Thomson sent a runner home to be thrown out at home plate, a figure that leads the league.

I'm sure Thomson brings some value to the organization in his other responsibilities as a coach, but I cannot fathom any reason he should stay in the third base coach's box past this season. It's just ridiculous to have so many runners thrown out at home. For now, just adhere to this simple axiom:

Homer_medium

2) Ugh. Just... just...

No one has any idea what the hell the rules are about blocking the plate and collisions. As the tweet says, there is basically no path for Drew to score and the ball is not even remotely in the picture, so that can't be an excuse for Hanigan to be blocking without the ball.

Shortly before this play, Tanya noted that the Yankees were huge trolls given their irritatingly frequent ability to sometimes make games close and then stop doing much of anything instead of finally reaching a tie or heaven forbid a lead. Well after the botched play at home in the fifth, here was the entire Yankees offense: one Ichiro infield single in the seventh. Everyone else made an out. Yee-haw.

Joe Girardi deserves some credit for mixing and matching with great success from the time Kuroda departed and onward. Huff, Chase Whitley, Rich Hill, Esmil Rogers, Josh Outmanlittle Bobby Rodgers of the South Bronx Little League, Shawn Kelley, and David Robertson combined to throw 5 2/3 innings of two-hit scoreless baseball. With the exception of Robertson and I guess Kelley, that is tremendous production from the janitor's mop closet.

Despite their efforts, the Yankees offense of course did not reward them. A line drive double play from Jeter ended the aforementioned threat in the fifth, and Ichiro and Drew combined to blow the last opportunity in the seventh. Ichiro had stolen second after his one-out single, and he bolted for third. Drew swung and lined it right to Wil Myers in right field, who doubled off Ichiro after the latter was slow in returning to second.

It was just one of those nights. It's just one of those seasons. If you are daring enough to watch another Yankees game, they will be playing this silly game of baseball tomorrow night at 7pm as Chris Capuano faces Jake Odorizzi. Beware.

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Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 9/10/14

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It's About the Money | Katie Sharp: Mark Teixeira might have finally learned how to beat the shift.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty:Masahiro Tanaka might still be able to pitch this year.

YES Network | Lou DiPietro: The Yankees don't know when Brett Gardner will return this season.

The New York Times | Richard Sandomir: You can now learn all about Brandon Steiner, the man that sells every Yankee-related thing you could imagine.

MLB Daily Dish | Jasper Scherer: The Yankees are facing a very uncertain offseason with Alex Rodriguez returning and many free agent options that need to be discussed.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: Third base coach Rob Thomson blames himself for sending Stephen Drew to his doom at home plate last night.

The Journal News | Brian Heyman: The Yankees haven't given up on their chances of making the playoffs.

It's About the Money | Brad Vietrogoski: John Ryan Murphy has another chance to impress now that he's back in the majors.

MLB Trade Rumors | Charlie Wilmoth: Chase Headley could still get a good contract on the free agent market because of what he offers at third base.


Jon Lester isn't worth it for the Yankees

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For the second straight winter the Yankees are going to try and spend their way back into the postseason. Jon Lester shouldn't be their answer.

For all their woes on offense, the Yankees are going to spend a lot of time over the next few months worrying about their pitching. The number of starters they have under contract and free from injury concern heading into 2015 amounts to a grand total of zero. As well as their scotch tape rotation has performed this year, it doesn't provide much in the way of long-term certainty. Brandon McCarthy and Hiroki Kuroda are free agents to be, Ivan Nova and CC Sabathia are on the mend from major surgeries and Masahiro Tanaka's right UCL gets so much press it should have its own publicist. Shane Greene's breakout rookie season has come on the back of a spotty minor league track record, David Phelps has had arm troubles of his own and Michael Pineda hasn't exactly demonstrated he can be counted on.

So yes, it's pretty much a given that the Yankees will be on the hunt for starting pitching, especially since the coming free agent class looks much stronger there than it does on the position player side. The name that's speculated most often belongs to Jon Lester. At 30, he's in the midst of arguably the finest season of his career, currently sporting a 2.54 ERA, 2.76 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, all of which are personal bests. His success hasn't been luck-based. His BABIP, left-on-base rate, and homer-to-fly-ball ratio are all right around his career norms. Lester has plenty of experience pitching in the American League East and in the postseason, and he's been pretty extraordinary in the latter, where he boasts a 2.11 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 76 2/3 innings. Lefties historically spend less time watching their pitches sail over the short right-field porch at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, and since Lester was dealt at the trade deadline this year, he's ineligible for a qualifying offer and won't cost the team who signs him a first round pick like fellow free agents Max Scherzer and James Shields most certainly will. Then there's the whole "stick it to the Red Sox" philosophy of roster construction, which has guided Yankee off-seasons for the past ninety-plus years and has brought plenty of Boston expatriates to the Bronx. For all those reasons, Lester will be tempting - maybe too tempting to pass up.

Wait a minute...this is supposed an article about why the Yankees shouldn't go all-in for Lester. Obviously there are some pretty strong points to be made for the opposite point of view, that is, until you think seriously about what a free agent Jon Lester is going to cost. There's a very strong chance that when the dust settles on this winter's free agent frenzy, Lester and Scherzer will emerge in some order as the second and third highest paid pitchers in baseball history. Lester is very, very good, but giving him a contract worth something close to, or north of the seven-year, $180 million pact that Justin Verlander is currently nursing would be severely stretching the boundaries of what sort of pitcher gets paid that kind of coin.

Over the past seven years, eight pitchers have signed deals for six or more seasons, worth $135 million or more. Here's a look at their performance in their three seasons prior to landing those commitments, compared with Lester and Scherzer who will soon expand the roster to ten.

PitcherContractFIPFIP-fWAR
Clayton Kershaw7 years, $210 million (2014-2020)2.587018.6
Justin Verlander7 years, $180 million (2013-2019)2.977020.3
Felix Hernandez7 years, $175 million (2013-2019)3.007816.1
CC Sabathia (Part I)7 years, $161 million (2009-2015)3.107119.4
Masahiro Tanaka7 years, $155 million (2014-2020)N/AN/AN/A
Zack Greinke6 years, $147 million (2013-2018)3.167813.3
Cole Hamels6 years, $144 million (2013-2018)3.348512.5
Johan Santana6 years, $137.5 million (2008-2013)3.217419.3
Jon Lester???3.518512.9
Max Scherzer???2.937215.9

This isn't a referendum on how these guys have performed once their deals were signed, but rather what they did that made their value so high. The only pitcher on the list with numbers comparable to Lester's is Hamels, but his deal began before his age 29 season, whereas Lester will throw the first pitch of his next contract at 31. I wouldn't have much of an issue handing Lester the Hamels contract, but that's not very realistic since he's going to end up with at least $25 million more than that guaranteed. While Lester's uncharacteristically poor 2012 skews his numbers downward, his 2014 performance is uncharacteristic, too. Going back five years instead of three doesn't improve the picture much. In that span, Lester's FIP drops only by 0.02. If the Yankees are insistent on spending copious sums of cash on a front line starter this winter - and there's a good chance they will be - Scherzer seems like the better bet, even with the draft pick cost attached.

It's not that Lester isn't phenomenal...he is. Barring catastrophe, 2014 will be his seventh straight season making 30 starts or more. His reputation for reliability and his postseason pedigree have earned him Andy Pettitte comparisons, and those are actually pretty fair. Pettitte's 3.74 career FIP and 84 FIP- are right in line with Lester's marks of 3.59 and 83. But Pettitte was never among the highest earning players on his own team, let alone in baseball. He was paid like good number two or three for the most part, never working on a contract longer than four years or for a salary higher than $16.4 million. Like Pettitte, Lester hasn't usually been someone who's dominant enough to out-pitch bad hitting. No matter what the Yankees offer him, it will be hard for him to have a significant impact if the team spends another year as an offensive bottom-feeder.

The Yankees have a decision to make on how they'll approach the rotation this winter. They can pull the old dump truck full of cash routine on Lester or Scherzer, or they can spread the wealth around by re-signing McCarthy and Kuroda for about a third of the total cost, combined, while hoping for the best from Tanaka and Pineda. It's not like option "A" isn't alluring. These are the Yankees and they can pay guys what they want without feeling much of a pinch. But there is a limit somewhere. No matter where it is, not allocating twenty-something million per season to a starter would leave them more to work with toward improving a lineup that badly needs help.

PSA Comments of the Day 9/10/14: I think we're just about done

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The Yankees face the Rays tonight. Chris Capuano is pitching. What's the offense going to do tonight? That's the question of the ages.

Comment of the Game

Surprisingly enough, this was the most rec'd comment not made by a mod. Therefore, NoMahbles wins the COTG award. Way to go.

Best GIF of the Recap

It was a dark day in the annals of Pinstripe Alley lore yesterday. Our ability to post GIFs was nullified. This is a time where we need GIFs to get by, to help us deal with the harsh reality that the Yankees are not a good team. Hopefully & mercifully we will be allowed to post GIFs today.

Honorable Mod Mention

See? This is the HMM winner from Michael Brown. This is what wins when you rip the GIFs from our hearts, SB Nation!

Best Comments of the Day

THERE ARE NO COMMENTS OF THE DAY! Just sadness and emptiness. Gardner's possibly out for the year, therefore nothing wins. NOTHING! /violently sobs

Fun Questions

  • There's only a little bit of the 2014 season left. Playoffs or now, what positives would you really like to see come out of September?
  • What are some of your favorite GIFs?
Song of the Day

The Sounds of Silence by Simon & Garfunkel
No GIFs...no Gardner...no hope...

Oh yeah, as always link us you song of the day!

The Yankees take on the Rays again tonight in Game 2 of this series. Chris Capuano will get the start. Despite these bleak times, baseball being on is always better than baseball not being on. So enjoy it while it lasts, despite how hard the Yankees make it to do so.

Musings on the humdrum of Yankees mediocrity over the past couple years

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Breaking news: Rooting for a team that is painfully mediocre just isn't very fun. That being said, don't jump off the bandwagon just because of a few forgettable seasons.

When I was growing up watching the Yankees run their incredible streak of making the playoffs in 17 of 18 seasons from 1995 through 2012, my mom used to tell me about the Horace Clarke years, the dark era of Yankees baseball when she was younger, which I also read about. It was just a completely forgettable decade in the Yankees' history between their last American League pennant with Mickey Mantle and crew in 1964 and the resurgent Yankees of the late '70s. The stars were fading, the replacements were middling, and fans didn't have much to smile about.

The fans who hung around were rewarded for their loyalty with five playoff seasons in six years from 1976 through 1981, including four AL pennants, two World Series titles, and the never-ending joy produced by one swing of the bat from Bucky Dent on a Fall afternoon in '78 at Fenway Park. It was fun while it lasted, but before long, the Yankees were back to mediocrity. They missed the playoffs every year from 1982 through 1993, compiling what was then one of the longest playoff droughts in baseball, a dubious distinction that was simply shocking given the Yankees' spending capacity. There were a couple seasons that probably would have led to a Wild Card berth had the spot existed back then, but for the most part, it was just forgettable baseball yet again, best exemplified by this Andy Hawkins' no-hit loss:

In total, it was understandable to see why my mom always said the Yankees sucked when she was growing up and while awesome, it was still a little odd to see them succeeding so much in the late '90 and 2000s. In a 30-year span from 1965-1994 (over half my mom's life), they were a playoff team just five times. Yikes.

As wonderful as the days of prime Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, and company were, it now appears evident that 2012 was the modern Yankees' version of 1964--one last playoff run with an aging team that ultimately fell short. The past two years have not been nearly as terrible as '65 or the last-place finish in '66, but man, have they been ugly to watch.

With their loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night, the Yankees dropped to five and a half games behind the AL Central-tied Royals and Tigers for the second Wild Card spot. It's just agonizing to look at the AL East standings--they are 11 games back of the hard-charging Orioles, who have one of the best records in baseball since the beginning of July. With any combination of nine Orioles wins and Yankees losses, they will be officially out of the AL East race, and the magic number in the Wild Card race isn't much better: 14. The Yankees are behind four other teams now for the Wild Card, and the two spots seem destined to go to two of the A's, Mariners, Royals, and Tigers.

Sources of excitement are few and far between on this group, much like it was during the Horace Clarke Era and Don Mattingly's career. The Horace Clarke Era had Bobby Murcer, Mel Stottlemyre, and a young Thurman Munson. In the '80s, there was Mattingly, a few years of Rickey Henderson, Ron Guidry, and Dave Righetti.

Likewise, the actual watchable talent here is sparse, especially on the current group that is without the injured Masahiro Tanaka and Brett Gardner. There's Jacoby Ellsbury, Dellin Betances, and Michael Pineda. Everyone else has just been a disappointing acquisition (Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran), some with sample sizes too small to get too excited about (Shane Greene, John Ryan Murphy), or an old guy winding down his career in disappointing fashion (Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki). It's hard to get fans to come out to the ballpark to watch Hiroki Kuroda or Chris Capuano make a start. David Robertson, Brandon McCarthy, and Chase Headley have been pretty fun, but who knows if those soon-to-be free agents will even be on the team next year?

Regarding next year, it's difficult to get too enthralled by the Yankees' future, either. As previously mentioned, there are only a handful of exciting players under contract past this year. Hopefully Tanaka will return, but there's still a very real chance he might have Tommy John surgery that would set his next start back to 2016. There's the likely return of the Alex Rodriguez Bizarro Show and the hobbled CC Sabathia. Yay. Maybe some of the promising prospects on the farm like Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, or Rob Refsnyder will lead a youth movement the Yankees so desperately need, but they're still just prospects with a lot to prove. As of now, they are only dice in the Yankees' hands, hoping to just turn some kind of profit on the craps board.

Am I supposed to be that excited by possibly seeing a guy like Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, or J.J. Hardy join this team in the off-season? Adding some of those guys might be nice, but they feel like moves that would put a team over the hump into legitimate playoff contention. The Yankees might be a .500 team or so this year, but they've been playing like a group that should be several games under .500 by virtue of their -27 run differential. That's a lot of runs to make up through off-season acquisitions.

Yes, it appears that we are entering another era of uncertainty in Yankees history. The team might even get more unwatchable. However, now is the time to prove for fans to prove that they are not mere fair-weather fans who only stick around for the championships, then completely ignore them until they are good again. Look back on that period from 1995-2012 and marvel--we were the luckiest fans in baseball to have witnessed such success, multiple championships, and an extremely likeable core of players. That was not normal, and it was damn entertaining.

Surviving through the rough times is what makes finally reaching the top most satisfying, which is what made 1996 arguably the most thrilling championship run in franchise history. My mom is far from the only Yankees fan who stuck it out with the team while they waded through the murky days of error-blowing no-hitters and Steve Saxes.

Keep the faith and the rewards that will come one day will be more than worth the wait.


Breaking Down Brandon Finnegan's Debut

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The newly drafted lefty sees the big stage in the Big Apple.

On Saturday, newly minted Royal Brandon Finnegan made his professional debut. It's quite a thing to make your big league debut in the Big Apple. Finnegan pitched 2 innings allowing 0 hits, 0 walks, while striking out two. In fun trivia his debut also made him the first MLB player ever named Finnegan. He's a historically important baseball player now. Congrats Brandon.

Finnegan threw 26 pitches in total. 10 in the sixth inning and 16 in the seventh. Interestingly both of those strikeouts came in the inning he threw the least amount of pitches and in the seventh he threw a little more than 1 1/2 more pitches than the sixth.

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You'll notice that every at bat started with a fastball/sinker. Raw Pitch F/X data classifies the pitch as a fourseam fastball while BrooksBaseball (who I think tweaks the data) says it was a sinker. This somewhat gels with the scouting reports of Finnegan's fastball offering, but it was noticed to have more tailing action than sink (if my memory recalls correctly). I'm not a Pitch F/X expert so maybe there is something to this.

Finnegan was working primarily arm side (inside to left handed batters/away from right handed) and he relied heavily on the fastball/sinker (sinker will hereby be referred to as fastball in this article). While working the changeup he threw it down in the zone. Interestingly his slider is thought to be his best secondary offering, but he only used it twice on the evening.

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Velocity on the fastball stayed in the 92-94 band, touching 95.

Here's the sequencing for Finnegan's second batter faced, Jacoby Ellsbury, where he recorded his first strikeout.

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Jacoby Ellsbury
PitchSpeedResult
Fastball92Called Strike
Slider81Called Strike
Fastball95Ball
Fastball93Foul
Changeup84Swinging Strike

After sitting on a first pitch fastball, right after the previous batter JR Murphy swung away at the first pitch he saw (also a fastball), Finnegan snuck a slider in a hittable zone that broke back over the plate for Ellsbury.

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Maybe that sits a little low when you just eyeball it there, but Pitch F/X says it was an easy strike.

Finnegan then went away with his fastest pitch of the day to get Ellsbury to chase but he wasn't buying. Finnegan then would pump in a hittable fastball at 93  that was really over the heart of the plate. Ellsbury was able to just get a piece of it late and foul tip it.

After throwing three fastballs to Ellsbury he pulled the string on him with a changeup that was timed decently by Jacoby but swung on top of it.

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Next up was against soon to be retired Derek Jeter.

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You could perhaps make an argument that Finnegan didn't throw Jeter a ball that would actually be a strike during the entire at-bat. Maybe he was scared of Jeter or maybe he knew Jeter was swinging at a career high percent of pitches outside the zone. Either way, Jeter chased three of them and almost chased all four.

Pitch 1 - 92 MPH fastball

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Pitch 2 - 93 MPH fastball

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Off balance trying to catch up to the outside pitch.

Pitch 3 - 92 MPH fastball

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Jeter is both late and underneath the pitch.

Pitch 4 - 94 MPH fastball

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Then despite seeing basically the same pitch four times in a row, and being late on all four, Jeter swings at a pitch he probably isn't going to ever get the bat on for the strikeout.

Finnegan's velocity chart:

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Finnegan carried right around an 8-10 MPH difference between his fastball and changeup and scouts generally like seeing that sort of velocity separation between the two pitches. Finnegan also does a good job of throwing both pitches from the same arm slot and the deception he brings from his natural mechanics helps his changeup play up slightly even though it's just an average offering.

This is the smallest of sample sizes basically so little information can be drawn going forward for the most part. Finnegan isn't going to not allow a hit for the rest of the season probably and he'll likely walk somebody at some point.

One thing to look at going forward though is the reliance on the fastball for the first pitch of each at bat. Maybe the Yankees didn't have a ton of information on Finnegan and wanted to see him out for the first pitch, but it'll be tough to survive if hitters know he's going to try to throw a fastball for each first pitch. Also you'd like him to throw his slider more to same handed batters like he did against Mark Teixeira.

Last night's play at the plate is just another reminder that the Yankees need to fire Rob Thomson

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Last night the Stephen Drew got thrown out at the plate in the fifth inning after being sent by third base coach Rob Thomson. It ended up being a crucial play because the bases were loaded and there were no outs. The next batter, Derek Jeter, lined out into a double play to end the threat when one run would have tied the game. The Yankees didn't challenge the Rays again and we were left spurned by Rob Thomson once again.

"Just a bad send. An error on my judgement. I take full responsibility for it. You know, we're all accountable around here, and it just wasn't a good decision. Nobody out, middle of the lineup coming to the plate. I've got to stop him there."

Well, yes.

Take a look at the video with me. Cue it up to about 0:45 to get the replay.

I have the breakdown for you:

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This is way too shallow of a hit to think that someone not named Brett Gardner could score on this.

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He doesn't decide to send Drew until after Matt Joyce already has the ball. Drew isn't even particularly close to third base yet, so Thomson is basically giving Joyce a head start to home by deciding to send him now.

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After looking at the video a few times, this seems to be the exact last moment Thomson could throw up a panicked stop sign, tell Drew to get back to the bag, and maybe he can slide back in safely while the fielder with the ball has to run back to third. Instead, he's just watching the play happen.

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Instead, we get this. Rob Thomson knows Stephen Drew is doomed and he goes yeeeeeeeeeesh.

As we all know by now, this has been an ongoing issue all season long:

It's well past time I declare that third base coach Rob Thomson needs to go. It's not every day the third base coach is a problem for a team, but with everything else going poorly for the Yankees right now, it's only fair that we call out the man who has sent a league-leading total of 21 men to their doom at home plate. And it's not just because of his insanity when it comes to sending runners.

Can anyone tell me what Rob Thomson actually does for this team? The coaching staff has their in-game assignments, but that's only one part of the overall package when it comes to what a coach contributes to the team. First base coach Mick Kelleher is also a noted infield instructor and we've heard stories about how he worked with Eduardo Nunez back in the minors and when he was on the major league team. He was also in charge of converting Stephen Drew into a second baseman. Bench coach Tony Pena is an ex-catcher and catching instructor, bullpen coach Gary Tuck is also considered to be one of the top catching instructors in baseball, having worked with Mike Piazza and Jason Varitek.

"we all talk about the emergence of the young players on our roster, but we have an emergence of our coaching staff from the minors on this roster as well." -Brian Cashman

So what is it that Rob Thomson brings to the table? Apparently he's the Yankees outfield instructor, but what does that even entail? I doubt Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, or Ichiro Suzuki need much instructing these days and he didn't exactly convert Lyle Overbay or Zelous Wheeler into something other than a liability. He seems to be the Dave Eiland of the group, the guy that's around and you know what his job title is, but you don't hear much about what he exactly does. I can't remember ever hearing anything worthwhile from or about Dave Eiland. He was just there. So is Rob Thomson.

It's odd to see how the organization has kept him around all this time. He's been a third base coach since 1990 and somehow still can't send runners responsibly. He was a field coordinator in 1998, became the director of player development in 2000 and was even named vice president of minor league development by the 2003 season. What is he doing here. By 2004 he was back to coaching as a special assignment instructor and was Major League field coordinator in 2007 before joining Joe Girardi's staff.

In 2008, the organization spoke highly of Thomson, as if he was the next big thing. He worked with Derek Jeter in the minors, he had experience doing pretty much everything, and no one could say enough about how he earned the job. Brian Cashman even said "we all talk about the emergence of the young players on our roster, but we have an emergence of our coaching staff from the minors on this roster as well." One year later he was moved out to third base, so what happened? I'm not going to sit here and claim that he was demoted because we don't know for sure, but people don't usually go from coach to vice president and back to coach because they wanted to. Even if he's not necessarily the problem, there just seems to be someone who is always better than he is, so there has to be someone who can wave runners around third in a superior fashion, right?

Getting back to the most observable problem Thomson brings to the team, there's a reason we invented this meme:

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I feel like I've been saying it, at least to myself, since last year, or maybe it's been since forever, I can't tell anymore. It's honestly ridiculous that the Yankees, really any major league team, is actually being hurt by their third base coach. But this is a terrible team, and losing 21 potential runs at the plate is not how you make it any better.

Yankees vs. Rays - Masahiro Tanaka to pitch a minor league game

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Chris Capuano has to hold the line here because they can't have another outing like Hiroki Kuroda has last night. Even four runs is too much for this team.

Jaocby Ellsbury remains at the top of the order with Brett Gardner out with an abdominal strain. Derek Jeter and Brian McCann follow with Carlos Beltran as the designated hitter. Mark Teixeira has moved down in the order while Chase Headley offers the offense its last competent hitter. From there it's Ichiro Suzuki, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young and I want to barf.

Masahiro Tanakawill pitch a game at the Yankees' minor league complex in Tampa. If all goes well for him then a return to the majors could be in the cards after that, but we'll see.

Francisco Cervelli and Martin Prado are both expected to take batting practice today. Cervelli is feeling much better since going down with migraines, however Prado isn't returning any time soon.

Angels 2014 Season: How did they become so good?

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Few teams can claim to have ever rivaled the Yankees' recent spending spree, but the Angels' series of moves in the offseasons heading into 2012 and 2013 come darn close. After signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to long-term contracts in December of 2011, GM Jerry Dipoto gave outfielder Josh Hamilton $123 million over five seasons one year later to complete a transaction trifecta for the ages, seemingly locking the Angels in as World Series contenders.

In the two seasons that followed the signings of Pujols and Wilson, the Angels went 167-157 and missed out on the playoffs both times. Pujols struggled through injuries while Wilson posted a 3.83 ERA in 2012, and the latter has a 1.37 career WHIP with the Angels. Meanwhile, Hamilton couldn't make consistent contact in 2013, posting the worst OPS of his career.

In 2014, the Angels are the best team in baseball, but those three big signings still haven't paid off. Pujols has been the best of the bunch, and his 26 homers and 91 RBI have helped the team tremendously given the overall lack of consistent power hitters in the lineup. But he's still nowhere near matching the production warranted by a $23 million salary, and that number will continue to rise until it tops out at $30 million in 2021—Pujols' age-41 season.

How, then, did the Angels become so good? The answer lies in a mix of homegrown talent and a few successful trades. Let's take a closer look.

Breakout performances in the rotation

Back in spring training, few people could have envisioned the Angels winning 89 of their first 144 games with Wilson posting a 4.64 ERA. The seeming lack of depth throughout the rest of the rotation made such a scenario impossible.

Or so we thought. But here we are in mid September, and the Angels have starters Matt Shoemaker, Hector Santiago and the injured Garrett Richards to thank for the rotation's success thus far, along with veteran right-hander Jered Weaver.

Since drafting Weaver 12th overall in the 2004 draft, the Angels have continued their success in the first round, for the most part. In 2009, the same year the team drafted Mike Trout in the first round, the Angels took Richards 42nd overall as a supplemental pick.

Just one year before, in August 2008, they signed Shoemaker as an amateur free agent out of Eastern Michigan University. After a few bumps in the road, he finally hit the majors in 2013 for a one-start cup of coffee, and after starting the 2014 season in Triple-A, he appears to be in the big leagues for good.

Richards put it all together this season after a few mediocre years switching between the rotation and bullpen. Though he won't pitch for the rest of the season after tearing the patellar tendon in his left knee, Richards still ranks eighth in the majors with a 2.61 ERA. Only four starters—Clayton Kerhsaw, Johnny Cueto and Felix Hernandez—have held opponents to a lower batting average, and nobody has allowed home runs at a lower rate than the five Richards allowed in 168.2 innings.

Shoemaker has done everything possible to shoulder the load in Richards' absence, and it has shown in the win column. The Angels haven't lost a Shoemaker start since Aug. 6, a span of five outings, and the team has lost only four of his starts all season. The Angels right-hander had also walked just six batters since July 3 before his recent start on Friday, and his gaudy 4.88 K/BB ratio—coupled with a 14-4 record and 3.25 ERA—would have him in contention for the AL Rookie of the Year award if Jose Abreu wasn't around.

20140423_jla_bd3_130.jpg.0_mediumMatt Shoemaker (Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

"When G went down we all knew we were all going to pick each other up," Shoemaker said in reference to Richards, via the LA Times' Helene Elliott. "We were going to pick it up for us, pick it up for him. That's a testament to such a good group of guys that we have. We're able to do that and rally around each other and keep getting better."

Coming into 2014, Shoemaker had five innings of experience in the majors, and Richards had a negative WAR with a career ERA of 4.42.

But it's not just the young guns. As MLB.com's Richard Justice noted on Monday, Angels starters had allowed three runs or fewer in 25 of their last 28 games at the times, a run that's now at 27 in 30. That wouldn't be possible without Weaver, who has a league-leading 16 wins in 31 starts with a 3.58 ERA. Though his 4.27 FIP is concerning, that number has risen in four consecutive seasons, and the right hander has done nothing to show he's slowing down other than a few rough starts in July. In fact, he's working on a streak of four consecutive quality starts, and he's allowed more than three runs just twice since July 1.

Lineup consistency

The Angels lead the majors in runs, but nobody has been a true offensive star outside of Mike Trout. In fact, Albert Pujols is the only other regular with an OPS above .800, and his .801 mark is hardly what you'd expect from the second most productive player on the majors' best offensive team.

That, however, is a testament to how reliable the lineup is from top to bottom. Every member of the order not named David Freese has an OPS+ above 100, and the Angels third baseman isn't far off with a total of 98. By that metric, eight of the nine regulars have been "above average" this season, and their average OPS+ total is 122, or 22 percent better than the league average. Fangraphs' similar stat, wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created, adjusted for ballpark effects), says even Freese is "average."

In 1998, the Yankees had a similarly deep team. Like the 2014 Angels, eight of the nine regulars in the lineup posted OPS+ totals above 100. The Yankees also had an outlier—center fielder Bernie Williams—who finished with an OPS+ significantly higher than anyone else's (160), not unlike the Angels and Trout (163 OPS+). In 2013, the Red Soxalso had eight of their nine regulars with OPS+ totals above 100, and David Ortiz (160 OPS+) served as the "outlier."

Of course, that Yankees team had several advantages over the 2014 Angels, including much more speed and a deeper bench; that's why they won 14 more games than the Angels' current pace of 100 wins. But the two teams have a few interesting parallels, and if we've learned anything from recent championship squads, it's that production up and down the lineup is much more important than having a stacked middle of the order without much else.

Key trades and draft picks

For all the publicity given to the Angels' offseason signings, it's the team's drafting success that has turned the lineup into such a juggernaut.

Howie Kendrick, Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron? All products of the draft. Kendrick, a career .292 hitter who consistenly hits in the middle of the Angels lineup, was a steal in the 10th round, while Calhoun, the leadoff hitter, came in the eighth round of the 2010 draft.

But smart trades have been almost as important for the Angels, like the one that brought over catcher Chris Iannetta from the Rockies in 2011. Often hitting out of the ninth spot in the lineup, Iannetta is the only player on the team with a higher on-base percentage than Trout (remember that depth?), and FanGraphs consistently gives him positive defensive ratings.

Other key players, like Freese and outfielder Collin Cowgill, also came to the Angels by way of trades, though the latter has slowed down considerably after he was hit in the face by a pitch in mid July and went on the DL. Freese, who struggled through an abysmal first half, has raised his OPS by 36 points post All-Star break. He has eight hits in his previous 21 at-bats.

★★★

It all looked lost for the Angels after a disastrous 2013 season. But the team's smart moves have been more than enough to offset the struggles of players like Hamilton and Wilson, and if those two ever begin to play up to their salaries, the Angels will be a tough team to beat this October.

Note to Orioles fans: Don't be jerks

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We spent years being abused by Red Sox and Yankees fans in our own house. Now that the Orioles are good, it's time to prove that we're better than that.

It's no secret to anyone reading this that the Orioles were terrible for a lot of years. And for most of those years, the Red Sox and Yankees were very good. Those things combined with a few other factors have resulted in a lot of games at Camden Yards over the years where our beautiful stadium (and the entire downtown Baltimore area) has been overrun by fans of those two teams. If you have been to those games or have even just watched them on TV, you know how miserable they are.

My problem with those fans was never that they were there in the first place. Don't get me wrong, I didn't want them there. But it's not like they were out beating up Orioles fans in the street and taking their tickets. They were buying tickets to seats that probably would have just sat empty otherwise. What I really wanted was an Orioles team good enough to drive those fans away.

My problem with the Yankees and Red Sox fans was the way some (not all) of them behaved when they were there. They brought signs that read Fenway South and wore shirts that said, "Camden Yards: The house that Jeter built." They talked trash and started fights and behaved in a mob mentality that was unbecoming of decent human beings. They made going to Camden Yards, which has always been my happy place even in the darkest times, miserable.

The tables have turned, this year at least, as the Red Sox sit in last place and the Yankees just barely hang onto the hope of a postseason berth. The Orioles are a good team now and headed for the playoffs. This year is so much fun and, I'm not going to lie, part of the fun is that the Red Sox have been so terrible and that the Orioles have beaten them and the Yankees over the course of the season. That's all part of sports fandom.

Now that the team is good it has led some Orioles fans doing things that are unbecoming, such as the gentlemen in the picture above. They watched their team, their stadium, and their fanbase suffer at the hands of the Red Sox for many years and they wanted to dish out some revenge.

I get the temptation. Really, I do. But I am imploring you all not to become those fans. Don't stoop to that level. You remember what it's like to be treated that way. You remember how awful it was. Why would you ever subject anyone to that?

I'm not saying that you shouldn't go see the Orioles on the road. On the contrary, I recommend it. I've been to see the Orioles at three different out-of-town stadiums this year, most recently at Fenway Park on Monday. The majority of the fans there are just like the majority of the fans at Camden Yards. They love their team and they're not bothering anyone. In fact, they were pretty nice to me.

I want the Orioles to be a classier fanbase than those of the Red Sox and Yankees' who come to Baltimore. I want the Orioles fans to fill Camden Yards when the O's are home and represent on the road with cheers, draped in orange and black. But I want our fans to be there to cheer on their team, not to jeer the fans of the opposing one. When it happens to us, we complain about how it's disrespectful and douchey and boorish. We know what it's like to be that miserable, and we're better than that.

Yankees' Brett Gardner could miss "significant amount of time" with abdominal strain

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The Yankees' could be without their best player for the remainder of the season.

As they continue to play out the final month of the season, the New York Yankees will be without outfielder Brett Gardner, as the 31-year-old is likely to miss a "significant amount of time" after an MRI revealed an abdominal strain, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Gardner last played on Friday in a 1-0 loss to the Royals.

The loss of Gardner is rough news for the Yankees, as he has probably been their best position player this season, and was anchoring a lineup that ranks last in the American League in runs scored. The Yankees are still alive in the playoff race, though their odds are slim with a 5.5 game deficit for the final AL Wild Card spot. New York would have to jump five clubs in the standings to earn a postseason nod, and considering their lack of health (and talent overall), that seems to be out of the question,

Gardner signed a four-year, $52 million extension with the Yankees in February, and so far, the deal has worked out quite well for the organization. In 572 plate appearances this season, he has hit .269/.342/.442 with a 119 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and 3.7 fWAR. He is among the top defensive left fielders in baseball.

The Yankees have also been without Martin Prado, who has been dealing with a left hamstring strain. Prado was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks at this summer's July trade deadline, and has hit a solid .298/.322/.509 since joining the Yankees. He is expected to miss at least the next couple games, and may end up being done for the season.

Diamondbacks mathematically eliminated from MLB playoffs

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It's been a trying year in Arizona, and that continued with the Diamondbacks officially being eliminated from the postseason.

After a long, disappointing season, the Arizona Diamondbacks were officially been eliminated from the MLB playoffs on Wednesday.

The Diamondbacks opened play at 59-85 on Wednesday, with a maximum possible of 77 wins. The Pirates (76-69) won, keeping their 1½-game second Wild Card lead over the Braves (75-71), who also won on Wednesday, with the Brewers (74-71) close behind.

Because the Pirates still have four games remaining with the Brewers and three with the Braves, any scenario of these teams losing as many games as possible will produce a second Wild Card winner with at least 78 wins.

Arizona got off on the wrong foot from the start, dropping their first three games and finishing April with a 9-19 record. The Diamondbacks hardly improved throughout the summer, with injuries and underperformance both leading to a disastrous season that ultimately saw GM Kevin Towers get fired a few days ago.

The combined losses of starter Patrick Corbin and set-up man David Hernandez in the spring (both to Tommy John surgery) weakened the club's pitching depth. Wade Miley and Josh Collmenter both put together decent enough seasons, but the D-backs lacked a true frontline starter. Brandon McCarthy was shipped off before flourishing with the Yankees, and free-agent signing Bronson Arroyo underwent Tommy John surgery himself in June after pitching with a partially torn UCL for the season's first two months.

At the plate, offseason acquisition Mark Trumbo has struggled mightily, hitting just .236/.301/.382 over 289 plate appearances, while also missing nearly three months with a fractured foot. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt put together another strong season, further solidifying his place among the best hitters in the NL, but he too landed on the DL with a fractured hand and will likely miss the rest of the season. Other veterans such as Aaron Hill and Cody Ross provided very little for Arizona.

The team did find a couple of starters for the future with Ender Inciarte and A.J. Pollock both impressing after receiving regular playing time in the second half. Rookie Chris Owings also got his feet wet against MLB pitching and looks to be Arizona's shortstop of the future.

But whoever takes over as the club's next GM has tons of work in front of them. The Dodgers and Giants look set to be annual contenders in the NL West, and the Diamondbacks' roster is lacking in young, impactful talent.


Yankees 8, Rays 5: Overcoming a large deficit is apparently possible

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The Yankees scored eight runs and overcame a four run deficit without their best hitters. Yup.

This looked like it would be a typical Yankee loss out of the gate. Chris Capuano was pretty terrible in his third of an inning of work. Yes, just one third of an inning. Capuano allowed four earned (one was a sacrifice fly after he was removed) on a Wil Myers RBI double and two RBI singles from Yunel Escobar and Logan Forsythe. Chase Whitley came in and was able to finish off the inning and only allowed the one run on the sacrifice fly, even though the bases were loaded with one out.

From there, things were not like the typical 2014 Yankees™. Usually, it would go like this: the Yankees would only put up a few hits and walks and would be handily put down by the opposing pitcher. Actually, it was always the case with a four run deficit:

Luckily, Jake Odorizzi was off his game. Brian McCann put the Yankees on the board first with a home run in the bottom of the first, and then then the Bombers came even closer in the third. With runners on second and third, Brian McCann recorded his third RBI of the game as a single scored both Jacoby Ellsbury and Chris Young.

Chris Young then did a thing. He hit a baseball over a wall that was placed in the outfield to demarcate home runs, and it increased the score by one to tie the game at four. The crowd gasped.

In the bottom of the fifth, the Yankees decided to do a few things that were surprising: they gained a two-run lead; and, Mark Teixeira hit a triple and scored Brian McCann from first. Yes, you can read that again: Mark Teixeira hit a triple and scored Brian McCann from first. OK, it wasn't really a triple because Myers bobbled it in the corner, but it goes in the books and that is good enough for me. And with that, we get the obligatory McCann running GIF:

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(h/t: MinigunMadness)

From there, the game cruised right along. The Yankees tacked on a couple more insurance runs in the eighth (on RBI doubles from Ichiro and Chris Young), and the bullpen put up eight innings of one-run ball; it was a smorgasbord of pitchers that got the job done. Chase Whitley, Lord Preston Claiborne, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, and Esmil Rogers nailed it down and the team ended up winning handily, 8-5. The only blemish was a solo home run that Rogers allowed with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

This was a really nice win, and with the offseason the Yankees had, I think a lot of people wouldn't have expected that the first time the team would overcome such a deficit would be on September 10th. But, such is life. The Yankees' playoff odds per FanGraphs stand at 1.0%:

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via www.quickmeme.com

The Yankees will take on the Rays for the rubber game of the three game set as #BigMike (Michael Pineda) will face off against Alex Cobb. The game starts at 7:05 PM EST and you can catch the game on YES or MLB.tv.

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Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 9/11/14

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New York Post | Joel Sherman: The Yankees need to figure out what to do with Alex Rodriguez in 2015.

ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews: Should the Yankees go to a six-man rotation next year to protect Masahiro Tanaka and the rest of their arms?

Just A Bit Outside | Ken Rosenthal:Stephen Drew's play at the plate proves that there is still work to be done with the home plate collision rule.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: Mark Teixeira believes that he's been unable to stay healthy this year due to a truncated offseason workout regimen.

Fangraphs Community Research | Chris Mitchell: Brett Gardner's improved plate discipline has also brought about an increase in power.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty:Martin Prado doesn't want to risk injuring his hamstring any further and threaten his training during the offseason.

It's About the Money | Matt Bove: Should the Yankees target Victor Martinez in the offseason?

Fangraphs | Carson Cistulli: Rob Refsnyder and Bryan Mitchell are some of the most compelling fringe prospects in baseball.


Should the Yankees bring back David Robertson?

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David Robertson is slated to hit free agency this winter. Will the Yankees pony up to keep their closer around?

The Yankees have a tough decision looming with regards to their current closer, David Robertson. The 29-year-old is slated to hit free agency come season's end, and he's likely be paid handsomely. Tasked with the tall order of replacing Mariano Rivera as the team's closer, Robertson's been everything the Yankees could have asked for this season. His 2.34 FIP and 39% K% rank 16th and 7th respectively among relievers in 2014, making him easily one of the best ten or twenty relievers in the game. Save for the two weeks he missed with a groin strain back in April, Robertson's dominance has enabled the Yankees to seamlessly transition from one elite closer to another. Yet as good as Robertson's been, it's unclear if the Yankees will be willing to spend what it would take to retain their closer, especially with the equally-dominant Dellin Betances already in the fold.

On a dollar per WAR basis, relief pitchers tend to be vastly overpaid on the open market. On average, free agent relievers cash in at over three times the overall market rate, while elite closers -- such as Jonathan Papelbon -- have been known to go for significantly more than that. The Yankees front office is well aware of this price-value disconnect. In the last two off seasons, they've let both Rafael Soriano and Boone Logan sign multi-year contracts elsewhere, and let the Nationals have Matt Thornton for literally nothing other than the few million left on his contract. Plus, for all of the mega-deals the Yankees have handed out in the last 6-8 years, they've been very spendthrift when its come to relievers. Aside from Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano has been the only notable reliever contract they've signed in quite some time, and even that was mandated by ownership. Prior to that, we're getting back to Pedro Feliciano (2 Years/$8M) and Damaso Marte (3 Years/$12M), if those even qualify. Otherwise, we're looking at the Kyle Farnsworth deal signed way back in 2006.

But even if relievers are over-priced, that doesn't necessarily mean the Yankees should simply let Robertson get his millions elsewhere. WAR/dollar valuations are great and all, but at the end of the day, there are only so many ways to upgrade a team. If the Yankees were to move Betances to the closer's role and replace D-Rob's roster spot with an inferior pitcher, they would immediately make their team worse by a win or two. Sure, they could theoretically spend that saved money elsewhere on the roster, but there are only so many other spots left to upgrade. Robertson is one of the best at what he does, and the Yankees would be hard pressed to find a comparable replacement.

There's no denying that Robertson's a great reliever right now, but pitchers aren't exactly know for having long shelf lives. Unsurprisingly, the history of great relievers entering into their 30's isn't overly encouraging. From 2002 to 2013, 32 relievers have thrown at least 100 innings in their age 28 and 29 seasons while posting an ERA, FIP, and SIERA all below 3.50.

Just like Robertson, every one of these pitchers was coming off of at least very good seasons, and had no known injury concerns, but that changed in a hurry. Six of these 32 landed on DL in their age 30 seasons, and excluding those who turn 31 next year, only 16 of 28 (57%) made it through their age 30 and 31 seasons unscathed. This, along with a few who simply stopped being good -- like Brandon League and John Axford -- caused the group's average production to dip by 0.7 (FIP-based) WAR through age 30, and by another 0.4 by age 31. Here's a Google doc of all of the relievers considered if you're interested.

DROBs

As depressing as this sounds, keep in mind that the many of those who stayed healthy continued pitching well. Guys like Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan, Heath Bell, and Francisco Cordero didn't miss a beat as they trekked through their early thirties. The upside of a Robertson extension is clear -- a healthy Robertson is likely to continue being a good Robertson -- but how he'll hold up as he embarks on his 30's is anyone's guess There's also the issue of the luxury tax. The Yankees threw the "$189M plan" out the window when they binged on Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran last winter, meaning they're required to pay an extra fifty cents on every dollar spent over that $189M threshold. So a $30M contract for Robertson would actually end up costing the Yankees $45M, with $15M going straight to the tax man. As always, its hard to say how much an extra few million really matters to a team like the Yankees, but its yet another factor that might dissuade them from investing in a 30-year-old closer.

Whatever Robertson ends up getting, it will likely be an overpay by dollar/WAR standards., but the Yankees have the financial muscle to be able to overspend on a good player. It's the injury scenario that they should be worried about. As reliable as D-Rob's been these past few years, he's a 30-year-old pitcher, which means he could go all Ryan Madson or Joel Hanrahan on us without much notice. Re-signing Robertson would almost certainly give the Yankees the best shot at making the playoffs in 2015. That might be all the justification needed following (probably) two consecutive years of missing the postseason, but the Yankees should still tread carefully. The last thing they need is yet another albatross contract, and Robertson would be just a ligament tear away from turning into exactly that.

What about the middle of the Red Sox rotation?

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It's totally unclear how the 2015 rotation will look, but Joe Kelly and Clay Buchholz look to fill out the middle of the rotation. Is that a good thing?

I know it comes as a shock to all of us, but the Red Sox were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs after Wednesday's loss to the Orioles. While we've been looking towards 2015 for a while now, this marks the official unofficial start of next season. The winter ahead figures to be a busy one, with a lot questions to be answered. At the forefront, of course, is rebuilding the rotation.

Since the trade deadline saw Jon Lester and John Lackey leave, many words in many different forums have been written addressing this issue. When we look at a rotation, it's often divided into three sections: the front-end, the middle and the back-end. In Boston's case, the discussion has centered around the front-end and the back-end of the 2015 unit. At the front, we've been looking at who will fill the two departed pitchers' shoes. Whether it will be Lester himself or someone else, it's almost certain that the best starting pitchers on next year's roster will come from outside of the organization. As for the back-end, the assumption is that the glut of pitchers who spent this year jumping between Pawtucket and Boston will clear itself up. Between Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes, there should be no problems finding the fifth, sixth and seventh starters. The part of the equation that's been swept under the rug a bit, though, has been the middle. Unlike the front and back, which have a wide array of possibilites, the middle of the rotation may already be figured out, with two guys currently on the roster.

Did you know that next to the word "enigma" in Webster's dictionary, this picture appears? Clay Buchholz is one of the most difficult pitchers to figure out in the league. Some days he looks like he can be a legitimate number one or number two in any rotation in the majors. Other days he looks like he should be nothing more organizational filler. In fact, this season has been great snapshot of his career as a whole. To start the year, the 30-year-old righty struggled mightily, but over the last month or so he has looked much better. In between, he found himself on the disabled list for a month. Next year, it's reasonable to expect anything within the range of what he's shown this year. He's only one year removed from being one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's less than one year removed from 6.20 ERA in 101-2/3 innings, something he did from the start of this year through August 3. Right now, he's trending more towards the good Buchholz, with a 3.22 ERA in his last six starts spanning 44-2/3 innings. Boston has always shown confidence in him, so it's safe bet he'll be in the middle of next year's rotation, which is about the only safe bet you can make in regards to Clay Buchholz.

Joe Kelly, on the other hand, has much less of a track record in Boston. Since coming here at the deadline as a piece in the Lackey deal, the 26-year-old has been a bit inconsistent for the Red Sox. The results haven't been too bad - his 3.95 ERA comes out to an almost perfectly average 99 ERA+ - but the peripherals tell a more worrisome story. While he's actually striking out batters at a better clip than he ever did with St. Louis, he's also walking opponents at a much higher rate. In fact, among qualified pitchers in the second half of this season, Kelly's 11.7 percent walk-rate is the third highest in baseball. It's not exactly that he's been extra wild since the All-Star break, as his zone profile hasn't diverged too much from his career norms. Instead, it appears his stuff may be less sharp, or more predictable. While he's typically induced swings on pitches out of the zone around thirty percent of the time, it's fallen down to 24 percent this season. Looking forward to next year, it's fair to expect that the command and control will crawl back towards his career norms. While Kelly's upside isn't as high Buchholz's, he may very well be a safer bet to be a solid member of the 2015 rotation through the entire season.

20140817_mta_sv3_003.jpg.0_mediumPhoto credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

While the most likely outcome looks to be Buchholz and Kelly manning the three and four spots in next year's rotation, it's not set in stone. Maybe the Red Sox will look to capitalize on the former's strong finish to the year and trade him. Perhaps they'll view the latter as incapable of playing up to American League lineups and deal him. It's also possible that they'll only acquire one front-end starter, and bump one of them to the number two spot. In any of these scenarios, they could look to acquire a number three starter from the outside. There are a few options for this scenario in free agency and via trade. Justin Masterson has struggled mightily in 2014, and Boston could look at him as an attractive buy-low candidate on the open market. Brandon McCarthy has always posted stronger peripherals than his final ERA, but he's looked very good in a small sample since being traded to the Yankees. He's a free agent at the end of the year, and could be a nice pickup as a number four starter. Jonathan Niese has long been a favorite of mine, and could be a trade target this winter. He's never going to blow anyone away, but he consistently puts up league-average numbers, is in the prime of his career, and is on a very team-friendly contract. He's owed $16 million over the next two seasons, with two team options following that. While top-end pitching is very difficult to find, Boston's farm system should allow them to acquire a mid-rotation arm with relative ease should they lose confidence in Buchholz and/or Kelly.

With all of the talk of who will replace Lester and Lackey, and which prospect will step up to claim a spot in the back of next year's rotation, the middle has been somewhat neglected. Looking at it now, it appears Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly have the inside track for the role. While both have concerns, they have shown the ability to produce at the major-league level. The hard part will be to fill out the rest of the rotation. After that, you just cross your fingers and hope for the good versions of Buchholz and Kelly.

PSA Comments of the Day 9/11/14: Big Mike's night

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Michael Pineda takes the mound tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. Winning this game would be pretty nice.

Comment of the Game

GIFS ARE BACK! It could be what influenced the COTG award going to MinigunMadness for this classic McCann GIF.

Best GIF of the Recap

This award has meaning & purpose again, now that our precious ability to post GIFs is back. Our very own GIF Sgt, BlackandGoldTSgt, wins the BGOTR award with this gem. It's good to be back.

Honorable Mod Mention

We have two HMM awards to hand out this afternoon. The first goes to Jason, for his thoughts on how MLB should handle its image when it comes to more serious, off-the-field issues.

The second HMM award goes to Tanya for her poignant Mary Poppins post. Even though the Yankees wound up winning, it's still a fair attitude for Waffles to have on this season.

Best Comments of the Day

The first COTD award goes to Elcruzter55, who is properly planning for the future!

Our second COTD award goes to carp68, who asks the important question about third base coach Rob Thomson.

Our last COTD award goes to LTL for playing Devil's Advocate. Of course, I assume "playing" meant "watching" Devil's Advocate, because he's such a huge Keanu Reeves fan.

Fun Questions

  • Do you honestly think Jeter will hit another home run before the season ends?
  • Favorite type of cheese?
Song of the Day

Separate Ways by Journey

Oh yeah, as always link us you song of the day!

Michael Pineda takes the mound as the Yankees hope to take the series from the Rays and keep up their winning ways. It's always exciting to watch Pineda pitch, so let's hope for the best.

Our thoughts and best wishes go out to the families of those who lost loved ones on that tragic day many years ago, as well as to the first responders whose courage and bravery cannot be measured.

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