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Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: James Shields

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Could the reliable Shields be the antidote to the Yankees' injury-riddled rotation woes?

2014 Statistics: 227 IP, 34 GS, 3.21 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 180 K, 1.181 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 3.3 WAR

2015 Age: 33 (born 12/20/1981)

Position: Right-handed starting pitcher

In 2014, the Yankees' starting rotation managed to stay afloat and put up some pretty nice numbers despite four of their five Opening Day starters losing significant time due to injuries. First went Ivan Nova to Tommy John surgery after only four starts. Next up was Michael Pineda, who missed three and a half months thanks to a shoulder strain and setbacks. Then, declining former star CC Sabathia hit the shelf  with a knee injury, and eventually, like Nova, he would be lost for the season as well, as knee surgery put his future in serious jeopardy. Finally, the most crushing blow of all came in July, when new ace Masahiro Tanaka suffered a slight tear of his UCL that will likely lead to Tommy John surgery at some point in the future, though fortunately, platelet-rich plasma therapy and rehab pushed it off for the time being. Nonetheless, he was absent from the rotation for two and a half months.

Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, and Shane Greene all did yeoman's work to keep the rotation steady and productive, but going into the 2014-15 off-season with only Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Nova, and Greene under contract for next year, it's clear that the Yankees could use some more starters. Perhaps the solution is just to try and bring one or both of free agents McCarthy and Kuroda back. However, no one would be surprised if the big-money Yankees decided to target some of the leading starters on the free agent market. One such pitcher is an old foe, one who has made more starts against the Yankees than any other active pitcher: James Shields.

There's plenty to mock regarding the silly "Big Game James" nickname that Shields is given, but there's no denying that Shields is one of the reliable pitchers in baseball. No one in the game has thrown more innings than the 1,785 2/3 he's pitched since the start of the 2007 season, way back when he was just a 25-year-old on the perpetual AL East doormat Devil Rays. He's averaged 33 starts and 223 innings pitched per year, and he's been even better after rebounding from a disastrous 2010 campaign. Shields was named an All-Star for the Rays in 2011, when he led the league with 11 complete games and four shutouts, all while pitching to a career-best 2.82 ERA and 3.42 FIP. From that season on, he's been pretty terrific on the regular: a 3.17 ERA (81 ERA-), a 3.49 FIP (89 FIP-), a 2.3 BB/9, and an average of  233 innings and 206 strikeouts per year. Given all these numbers, his injury history should be no surprise:

Injury history courtesy of Baseball Prospectus

That's incredible, especially considering the state of rampant pitching injuries throughout baseball and the fact that Shields had shoulder surgery as a mere 21-year-old minor leaguer in 2002. He has never appeared on the Disabled List, and he has not missed a single start since he was a rookie eight years ago.

Knock Shields all you want for the silly nickname or whether or not it was actually worth it for the Royals to send Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi away in exchange for Shields and Wade Davis in the 2012-13 off-season. (After the 2014 AL pennant run? Yes.) The guy takes the ball every fifth day and pitches better than most starters in the game. He doesn't walk people, he gets more than his fair share of strikeouts, and his changeup is among baseball's best:

GIF from Everything Pitching

Nasty. Shields is a damn good pitcher, and he's going to receive a pretty nice contract on the free agent market. He'll have draft pick compensation attached, but he'll be a somewhat-cheaper alternative for teams who don't want to give all the years and dollars that Max Scherzer and Jon Lester will command. He'll probably make whoever he signs with quite happy over the next couple years.

That being said, he turns 33 in December and I want no part of the Yankees signing Shields to the five-year, $95 million contract that MLB Trade Rumors suggests he might receive. I think that estimate is a little high, but the point is that his deal will be up around that echelon anyway. As with any free agent contract, the latter years of the deal will probably not be pretty as Shields enters his late-30s; eventually, he'll likely have to deal with injuries as well. Over at FanGraphs, Jeff Sullivan compared Shields quite favorably with McCarthy, who would cost less than Shields since he's more of an injury risk.

Despite that risk compared to Shields's reliability, it would probably be the better investment to simply retain the 31-year-old McCarthy. Shields would improve the rotation right now, but both his cost and future contract have to be a little concerning. The Yankees would probably be better off directing their finances elsewhere.

Poll
Should the Yankees pursue James Shields?

  489 votes |Results


Yankees rumors: Yankees interested in trade for shortstop Elvis Andrus

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One man's dream could finally come true.

In their search to find a replacement at shortstop for Derek Jeter, the Yankees are unsurprisingly not restricting their scouting to the free agent market. According to a report from Joel Sherman, the Yankees are "intrigued" by the idea of trading for Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus.

With few legitimate shortstop prospects in their system and none who will make an impact anytime soon since they spent 2014 at Low-A or below, it makes sense that the Yankees would be curious about bringing the 26-year-old Andrus into the organization. In April 2013, the Rangers signed Andrus to an eight-year, $120 million extension that kicks in starting with the 2015 season, running through 2022 with an option for 2023. He has possible opt-outs in his deal for after the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but of course if he actually uses one, then that would mean he's doing well.

Since Andrus was called up at such a young age, he would only be 33 in 2022, so as the SBN Rangers blog Lone Star Ball noted, it made some sense to lock him up. At the time, Andrus was also coming off his second straight four-win season due to a combination of his defensive excellence and his developing bat. Since finishing runner-up for the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award, Andrus has been a two-time AL All-Star and 17.6 WAR player in six seasons, and he was of course the shortstop for the most successful period in franchise history for the Rangers, when they made the playoffs three years in a row from 2010-12 and won back-to-back AL pennants in 2010 and 2011. Long considering a superb shortstop, Andrus's bat appeared to be finally breaking out in the 2011 and 2012 seasons, when he combined to hit .283/.348/.370 with 58 doubles, 12 triples, 58 steals, and a 95 wRC+. That's fine for a shortstop ,particularly one with his defense:

Credit: @nick_pants

Unfortunately for the Rangers, Andrus has taken a step back over the past two seasons, not unlike the Rangers organization itself. He's remained one of the few constants, as he's averaged a remarkable 152 games per season since being called up, and indeed, he's missed just 15 games over the past three years. His defense stayed fine, but his bat slumped to a .267/.321/.332 triple slash since the start of 2013, a 79 wRC+. Sherman also noted that he came into camp out of shape this year, which is just never a good sign. Perhaps most concerning is his decline in plate discipline; after walking in 8.2% of his plate appearances from 2011-12, Andrus has walked in just 7.1% of total PA since 2013 (6.7% in 2014 alone). That will cause a dip in production for any player, and it's particularly noticeable for a shortstop who doesn't hit for much power. Additionally, even though he hit a career-high 35 doubles in 2014, slight dips in singles, triples, and homers meant that his .333 slugging percentage was below his career average of .345.

Despite the two-year slump, it's not hard to see why the Yankees would still retain some interest in Andrus. He only turned 26 last August; he's still quite young with his prime potentially ahead of him. Furthermore, while he is quite unlikely to hit anywhere near the levels previously achieved by Derek Jeter, the Captain's defense never really approached Andrus's level, either. So Andrus brings a fair amount to the table from a defensive side that hasn't been seen from a regular shortstop in the Bronx in years.

The possibility for a rebound with the bat makes him more enticing, and as Sherman stated, the Rangers might also be more inclined to trade him given his contract and the possibility of a quick replacement at shortstop with the cheaper young players Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, or Luis Sardinas. I would definitely have to think seriously about what the Rangers would want in return (Sherman suggests pitching, so that means Luis Severino and/or Ian Clarkin would almost certainly have to be on the table), but I see no reason to be upset that the Yankees are at least exploring the idea. (He'd almost certainly be cheaper than Troy Tulowitzski and not be nearly the injury risk.) They need to figure out some solution at shortstop for the immediate future with no prospects arriving anytime soon, and Andrus is already an accomplished player who isn't even close to 30 yet.

So what do you think? Should the Yankees try to acquire Elvis Andrus? I know at least one person who thinks so, but what about everyone else?

Poll
What's roughly the highest-caliber prospect you'd be willing to give up in a trade for Elvis Andrus?

  472 votes |Results

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Stephen Drew

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2014 Statistics: .162/.237/.299, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 44 wRC+, -1.1 wRC+

2015 Age: 31

Position: Shortstop/Second baseman

I know, I know; Stephen Drew was terrible last year. He didn't hit at all and he was shaky at second base. Even so, he might be one of the best options for the Yankees to begin the 2015 season.

If the Yankees were to sign Drew, they'd be looking for, and likely getting, a rebound year. Next year he'd be asked to fill in at his natural position of shortstop, which he's played very well over the course of his career. It also seems very unlikely that he could be as bad as he was at the plate. He mentioned his irregular preseasons over the last few years as a reason for some of his struggles, having to recover from surgery or sign late instead of starting a season with a normal spring training. Drew is finally healthy and getting back to his normal offseason routine should do wonders for him on both sides of the ball.

Signing Drew would be an excellent way to save money for the Yankees. The team needs more than a few positional upgrades and it wouldn't take much to upgrade over a 40-year-old Derek Jeter. Bringing in Drew on a cheap one-year deal and getting even a modest bounce-back season will lead to a net gain for the team. By saving money on Drew, they can then pour more money into starting pitching, David Robertson, and third base.

Even if Drew doesn't work out, it's a worthy gamble for a half-season. The Yankees have been big on upgrading at the trade deadline, and like they did last year, they could easily do it again. If Drew can't rebound by July, Brian Cashman might be able to go out and get a shortstop on a better deal than if they were to trade for one now. Jimmy Rollins will be owed $11 million in the last year of his contract, and Alexei Ramirez has one more year at $10 million with an option year for 2016. Both these men would cost a pretty penny in the offseason, but at the deadline could be had in another Ninja Cash move if the Yankees take on some of the remaining money.

If Stephen Drew can give the Yankees what he gave the Red Sox in 2013–109 wRC+, 3.4 WAR–his modest salary would be an absolute coup. Thanks to a terrible season under extenuating circumstances, one year of Stephen Drew could be the smartest decision this team could make. Let's stay away from the long-term contracts for now and try to get the best value across the board. If it doesn't work out, Cashman can strike a deal somewhere. If there's one thing that Brian Cashman is good at, it's wheeling and dealing. Build to your strengths.

Pinstripe Q&A: Three wishes to spend on the Yankees

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I know he's an American League champion, but don't wish for Jayson Nix to return to the Yankees.

There are a lot of things all of us would probably change about the Yankees. Whether it be as small as changing the concession stands or as big as a major front office overhaul, there are somethings we wish were different. Sadly (but probably thankfully), we can't do anything to implement those changes.. But what if we could?

Q: You discover a genie in a Yankees-branded novelty lamp. He gives you three Yankees-related wishes. What are they?

Shaun

Wish one:
All pitchers will never get hurt and pitch to their capabilities for as long as they are in a Yankee uniform.

Wish two:
All prospects not traded away become superstars.

Wish three:
Yankees are guaranteed one World Series title every 6 years, and will earn a playoff berth forever and ever (it would get boring if I wished for a title every year so I'll take the promised title and enjoy the randomness of baseball the other 5 years).

Bryan

1st Wish: That Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Ian Clarkin, and Greg Bird become superstars, and become the next four to help lead the Yankees to various titles (I'm allowed to combine all this into one wish).

2nd Wish: Go back in time and make sure the Yankees never move from the old stadium and instead remain there for eternity.

3rd Wish: Make me the GM of the team. That's Yankees related. Right?!

Matt P.

I suppose this is three wishes combined into one, but the answer is simple: three cost-controlled and All-Star caliber talents, either by the farm system, trade, or any other extralegal means. The problem the Yankees are going to face (and have already faced to an extent) is that they can no longer supplement their holes via the free agent market anymore; with the onset of team friendly extensions that buy out the better part of a free agent's career, the Yankees are left hanging, so to speak. I mean, they'll never stop signing free agents, but it becomes much easier to put the finishing touches on a team when you have a few positions that are comfortably and cheaply locked up for a few years as opposed to trying to fill black holes on the team with flawed and expensive free agent options. I don't care how much the Yankees spend--it's not my money--but having a few position players that are dirt cheap and above average gives the Yankees the ability to use their financial might not to keep their heads above water, but to make them undeniable favorites coming into a season.

Andrew

1) Multivitamin that protects the Yankees' players against injuries
2) Mike Trout traded for Alex Rodriguez
3) Steinbrenner Face replaced by a bronze calzone

John

Three wishes, huh?
I wish for an outfield of 1935 Joe DiMaggio, 1920 Babe Ruth, and 1951 Mickey Mantle signed to long term, team friendly deals.
I wish for an owner willing to spend a significant share of the team's revenue on the team.
I wish for Yankee Stadium to have its original dimensions so it's a pitcher's park.

Doug

My first wish would be a redo of the drafts from 2007-2011. The lack of young, cost-controlled talent has crippled the club the past few seasons.

Wish number two would be used to change the seating configuration of the current stadium. The feel and intimidation factor of the old stadium is missing in the new ballpark.

The final wish would be that Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout were Yankees. The whole short-term outlook would be much better with them in pinstripes.

Greg

First wish: Bring back Yankee Stadium II but find a way to give it YSIII's walk around & better food options.
Second wish: A retractable, futuristic dome over the stadium
Third wish: FLING TROPICANA FIELD INTO THE FUCKING SUN!!!

Jim

1) A brand new Yankee minor league system

2) Bring back the old Yankee Stadium, prices and all

3) More Yankee wishes

Michael

1. Prevent Thurman Munson's plane crash.
2. Make Robinson Cano resign with the Yankees.
3. Rebuild YS III properly.

Matt F.

My first wish would be for Monument Park to be an actual focal point of the stadium again instead of the dungeon for the restaurant that it currently is. My second wish would be for Aaron Judge to become a legitimately good/great MLB player. He has the total package of dingers and a pun-able name. He's perfect and I need him to become a thing. And my third wish would be for the evil scientists, that the Yankees no doubt employ, to find a gene that can allow human-sized, talking animals to play baseball. You may have never before thought about a giant rabbit playing shortstop for the Yankees but you are now, and admit it: that would be pretty awesome.

Those are our wishes, so now it's your turn. What would your three wishes be? Don't waste them.

Yankees interested in Elvis Andrus

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The Yanks may turn to Elvis Andrus as they look to replace Derek Jeter.

The Yankees are intrigued by the idea of adding Rangers' shortstop Elvis Andrus in a trade, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It is currently unclear if the sides have talked about a deal involving Andrus, but it is likely that the Yankees will at least check in at some point in the near future.

Andrus, 26, hit .263/.314/.333 with two home runs in 157 games for Texas last season, the third straight year in which his offensive numbers declined by a significant margin. He is under team control for eight more seasons due to an eight-year, $120 million extension that he signed with Texas last April, and could be the young piece that the Yankees are looking for as they revamp their middle infield in the wake of Derek Jeter's retirement.

Andrus' contract is likely to make most teams wary of acquiring him, especially due to the offensive struggles that he has sustained since an All-Star campaign in 2011. The Rangers may have to kick in some significant money in order to move him in any deal, though the Yankees may be able to get him at a reduced prospect price if they are willing to take on most, if not all, of the contract.

Help us choose the most important Yankees hit of 2014

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As we continue our installments of the SB Nation MLB GIF Awards, you can help us determine the most important hit of the Yankees 2014 season. Here are another five GIFs that represent the most important hits of the season; your mission is to choose the most important one. Go.

Derek Jeter's last stand

Of course this happened. It was amazing. Maybe you laughed, maybe you cheered, maybe you cried. Maybe you felt every emotion at the same time. Whatever you felt, it was a spectacular and appropriate way to cap off the Derek Jeter Era and it will live forever as a Yankees Classic.

Chase Headley arrives

The Yankees were hanging around at the trade deadline and they finally made their move for Chase Headley. He arrived midway through the game to provide some game-winning heroics that had us all believing that maybe this was the beginning of a magical run. That didn't happen, but it was still a beautiful moment, if only for Headley's sake.

Brian McCann comes to life

After the terrible season he and the Yankees had been having, Brian McCann really came to life in the summer months. His game-winning home run capped off his comeback as a useful baseball player and was part of the team's run for a five-game win streak, their longest of the season. It seemed like everything was clicking right then and there and McCann showed it.

Carlos Beltran saves the day

At the time the Blue Jays were still in first place in the division and the Yankees were only 1.5 games out of first. The Orioles were gaining on the competition and were in reach to overtake the Yankees, but Beltran's home run hampered their plans for one more day. Baltimore ended up taking the series, but at least they needed an extra day to take over second place in the division.

Chris Young mania

Remember that time Chris Young was amazing? The man hit three home runs in three days and hit .417 that week and it looked like it would never end. By this point in the season it was already too late to hope on anything, but at least Chris Young gave us something to be excited about for a little while. It got him a new contract, so maybe we can see it again next year.

Tell us who had the most important hit of the Yankees season so we can pick the very best one and put it up against the best from every other SBN blog on the network. Pick a good one!

Poll
Who had the most important hit of the season?

  38 votes |Results

Jose Abreu wins 2014 AL Rookie of the Year award

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The Cuban slugger showed he could hit for average and power on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.

The Baseball Writers' Association of America officially announced Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu as the winner of the 2014 AL Rookie of the Year award.

Abreu won the award unanimously, receiving all 30 first-place votes and 150 total points. Angels starter Matt Shoemaker finished second, earning 40 points from voters, and Yankees reliever Dellin Betances came in third with 27 total points. Eight other players received votes, with Astros starter Collin McHugh and Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka finishing fourth and fifth, respectively.

The 27-year-old Cuban import was signed to a six-year, $68 million deal in the offseason, and he paid handsome dividends immediately. Abreu mashed to the tune of a .317/.383/.581 line, belting 36 home runs to go with 107 RBI.  He led the league in slugging percentage and OPS+ (169), and finished second in total bases (323) and OPS (.964). He finished third in the league in isolated power (.264).

While he didn't fare well in the defensive metrics, Abreu's offensive dominance dwarfed whatever shortcomings he displayed with the glove. He still finished with over 5 WAR according to both versions of the metric. He was also successful on three of his four stolen base attempts, though speed is not really part of his game.

Abreu is the sixth Southsider to win the award, joining Ozzie Guillen (1985), Ron Kittle (1983), Tommie Agee (1966), Gary Peters (1963) and Luis Aparicio (1956).

Russell Martin seeking $75-$80 million over five years

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The prized backstop is looking for an enormous payday, and may very well receive it.

Top free agent catcher Russell Martin is reportedly seeking a five-year deal in the range of $75 to $80 million, according to Jeff Blair of SportsNet.ca, who also reports that the 31-year-old is said to "already be leaning in the Chicago Cubs direction."

Martin's contract demands seem to line up with the five-year, $85 million deal Brian McCann received from the Yankees last winter, and rightfully so, considering Martin is thought to be far and away the best catching option available this offseason (David Ross and Geovany Soto may be his closest competition). He is coming off a career-year in which he hit .290/.402/.430 with a .370 wOBA, 140 wRC+, and 5.3 WAR, not to mention top-notch pitch framing skills from behind the plate.

Reports have connected Martin to a quartet of teams in the Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates, and Blue Jays. Of those clubs, the Cubs are expected to be the most serious players for Martin, who rejected the Pirates' $15.3 million qualifying offer on Sunday. The Blue Jays are also expected to "take a shot at signing" him, per Blair.


Passan: Angels "In On Max Scherzer" and will Break Luxury Ceiling This Winter

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Yahoo's MLB analyst says the Angels will break the bank on the free agent market, go over the luxury tax threshold and likely sign pitcher Max Scherzer!

What used to be called KFWB News Radio is now THE BEAST 980 Radio Station. It has a weekday afternoon sports talk show called THE DRIVE on form 3 - 7 PM with hosts George Wrighster and Brett Winterble. Today they had as their guest Jeff Passan. He is the national MLB analyst for Yahoo! Sports and he had some good scoop about the Angels as the offseason gets rolling

Listen at the audio in the linked article (LINK) - click ahead to the 4:30 mark to avoid blah blah blah about the Dodgers.

To sum up the questions about the Angels and Passan's commentary

•First he is asked if the quiet in the offseason is good.
He replies that behind the scenes it is noisy – and with most of the clubs. The whole offseason this year is ahead of schedule with a lot of trade talks. Passan believes fans will see that things will happen earlier than even the Winter meetings with the Angels and with every team.

•Then he is asked to analyze Arte Moreno as an owner, specifically if he is too meddlesome.
Passan digs in:

If I owned something that was worth more than a billion dollars, there is no such thing as being meddlesome. If you’re an owner of something, you have every right to be right in the middle of it. That being said, Arte Moreno is not a baseball man and Arte Moreno doesn’t know enough about baseball to be making baseball decisions.

Passan then goes on to point out that Arte has "Stepped in piles of you know what" in his pursuit of signing overpriced players.

He observes that one thing that has saved the Angels from Arte's meddlesome spending is that Moreno refuses to do business with Scott Boras – implying that Moreno would have spent way more money over the past few offseasons on Boras clients if he felt he could deal with Boras in good faith.

(Passan did not go into the specifics of the feud but Arte publicly called out Boras as using the Angels to up the price on then-free agent Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season and the Angels have signed only one Boras client since - injured reliever Ryan Madson who never threw a pitch for the club)

But then he uses the word DETENTE to describe where Moreno and Boras are at now. Look that word up. The war is over...

•Then Passan delivers the bombshell...
According to his sources, the Angels will try to sign a big name free agent pitcher, probably Max Scherzer, (a Boras client) and will break through the Salary Threshold, thus being subject to a tax on their payroll expenditures that will be redistributed to teams in smaller markets.

After all that, though, instead of asking about the detente, the subject quickly changes - they talk about A-Rod and the Yankees and then they talked about the Mets. What, no Red Sox talk in L.A., why hold back?

Anyway - wow.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/11/2014

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Robertson has rejected the Yankees' qualifying offer; Betances and Tanaka finished third and fifth in ROY voting; GM Meetings have started.

ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews: As expected, David Robertson has officially rejected the Yankees' qualifying offer.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: The Yankees will now pursue a multi-year contract with Robertson.

CBS Sports | Matt Snyder: Dellin Betances finished third place in voting for AL Rookie of the Year, with Masahiro Tanaka coming in fifth.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: Brian Cashman discusses Hiroki Kuroda, Stephen Drew, and Carlos Beltran's elbow situation.

New York Daily News | Anthony McCarron: With holes left to fill, the GM Meetings could be a good opportunity for Cashman to talk trading for a shortstop.

Yankees pushing to sign Chase Headley over concerns about A-Rod's ability to play third base

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A-Rod's health—much less his production at the plate or in the field—is far from guaranteed this upcoming season.

One week after the Yankeesreportedly began talks with free agent third baseman Chase HeadleyESPNNewYork.com's Wallace Matthews wrote on Monday that the team is "making a strong push" to bring Headley back. The primary reason, Matthews reports, is the team's lack of faith in Alex Rodriguez to regularly play third during the course of the season.

Headley, who hit .262/.371/.398 in 58 games with the Yankees last season, rated as the top defensive third baseman in baseball in 2014, according to FanGraphs, while A-Rod hasn't played more than 100 games at the position since 2010. The Yankees' previously reported interest in re-signing Headley hinted at their concern about Rodriguez's defense (and perhaps his ability to stay healthy during a full season in the field), but ESPN New York's report confirms as much.

According to the article, the Yankees "are looking at Headley to start at third, play some DH and back up Mark Teixeira at first base," per Matthews' source, who was identified as a baseball exec not involved in the contract talks. The source cited A-Rod's knee and multiple hip operations, combined with his age (he's 39), as reasons for concern.

It's anyone's guess as to how well Rodriguez will perform after a full year off, but by limiting his time in the field, the Yankees could give him a chance to focus on getting his swing back and contributing on the offensive end. However, as I wrote last Tuesday, the Yankees have plenty of other aging hitters (namely Teixeira and Carlos Beltran) who will need to spend time at the DH spot as well. It could be imperative, then, that Rodriguez plays in the field at least a bit, whether it is at first or third base, in order to give his fellow veteran hitters a chance to rest their legs as well.

As we learned in October, Rodriguez already talked with the team about playing first base, a position he has never played in his major league career. Either way, it appears that manager Joe Girardi will have to be on his toes in terms of making constant lineup adjustments this season, whether or not the Yankees re-sign Headley.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Jake Peavy

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The Yankees could target Peavy as a replacement veteran for Hiroki Kuroda

2014 Statistics: 3.73 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 7.02 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, 202.2 IP, 1.9 WAR

2015 Age: 33

Position: Right-handed starting pitcher

The Yankees love veteran starting pitchers on short-term deals. They went year-to-year with Andy Pettitte, brought in Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon on one-year deals, and have kept Hiroki Kuroda around for the last three seasons. If this is truly the end of Kuroda's stay in pinstripes, the Yankees may look to replace him with a younger, but still older, model like Jake Peavy.

It might surprise you to learn that Peavy is still only 33 years old, but with a rotation that is expected to consist of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Shane Greene, and with CC Sabathia's career in doubt, the Yankees might look to the free agent right-hander to fill the role of rotation elder statesman. The reason he's viewed as more of retread than a solid veteran option is because the former Cy Young winner underwent shoulder surgery in 2010 and struggled through the 2011 season. However, he returned to form in a big way with the White Sox in 2012 and provided solid work over the last two seasons to make him a short-term option for the Yankees heading into 2015.

If we were basing his signing purely on his time with the Red Sox over parts of the last two seasons, it would be easy to dismiss him as a has-been. In 2014, he pitched to a 4.72 ERA with a 4.80 FIP in 124 innings of mediocrity. What made him an attractive piece was when he was traded to the Giants and gave them a 2.17 ERA and 3.03 FIP in 78.2 innings of solid productivity. Sure, the real Peavy might lay somewhere in the middle of these two performances, but it's good to see that he pitched well through the end of the season.

Maybe he was hurt by a 12.6% HR/FB rate in Fenway Park, which might not translate too well in Yankee Stadium, but he also excelled in the American League as recently as 2012, hopefully chalking up a bad year-and-a-half to bad luck rather than an inability to pitch against stronger competition. What is most attractive about Peavy is that he finally might have put his injury issues behind him as he reached the 200-inning plateau once again.

While Hiroki Kuroda may have been better last year, it's not hard to understand why the Yankees might decide to put their faith in someone who is not 40 years old yet. If Kuroda is not a Yankee in 2015, and they can't work out a deal with Brandon McCarthy, it could make sense to move in on Peavy and give him a year or two at $10-15 million per.

PSA Comments of the Day 11/11/14: D-Rob rejects QO, Zoilo is gone, and Betances comes in 3rd place in ROY Voting

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The Japan All-Star series has started. In fact, it started seven hours ago. Time zones suck sometimes. D-Rob rejects the Yankees QO, Zoilo Almonte is gone, and Betances comes in 3rd place in ROY Award voting. Pitchers and catchers report in 100 days.

Comments of the Day

NoMahbles was saddened by the loss of Zoilo Almonte. I'm sure everyone who enjoyed name puns was as well.

Meanwhile, Cito Culver is apparently still a thing, as Andrew discovered. "To" crazy is right!

Actually it's not, as Harlan perfectly points out with the help of Ralph Wiggum.

LTL plays the role of frankiec. We all thought news of Elvis Andrus would bring him back to us.

GIF of the Day

Since Zoilo is now on the Braves, this will probably be the last time this GIF will ever win the GOTD award.

Honorable Mod Mention

I posted this last night and it wins because it's quite possibly the best photoshop ever made.

Fun Questions
  • If you could pick a Japanese Baseball Team to root for, which would you pick?
  • Favorite orchestral piece of music? (I asked this one long ago. Let's see if we get some new answers from some new members)
Song of the Day

Fortress Boss (Remix) from Super Smash Bros. for Wii U

No really, this is an amazing remix of this classic Super Mario World song. I'm so stoked for the soundtrack to this game. As always, link us your song of the day!

You know what? There's baseball on right now. Or rather, there was baseball on about seven hours ago. The Japan All-Star series is underway. Did anyone here stay up to watch it? Meanwhile, in the Yankee Universe, David Robertson has rejected the Yankees' QO. This should shock no one. Zoilo Almonte was signed by the Atlanta Braves to a major league deal. This should shock someone. Dellin Betances finished third in AL Rookie of the Year award voting. This should shock some and anger others.

Betances was robbed

Yankees interested in trade for Jimmy Rollins; not high on Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie

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The Yankees will surely be looking far and wide as they search for the shortstop to replace Derek Jeter. One way they could fill the role is by making some kind of trade and they've already been connected to Elvis Andrus of the Rangers. Brian Cashman has now gone on record to say that they're looking at Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies as well.

Rollins, 35, is in the last year of his contract after his vesting option kicked in for the 2015 season at $11 million. Despite his age and Philadelphia's troubles, Rollins still offers value on both sides of the ball. He just put up a 3.6 WAR season while offering league-average offense and solid defense; something the Yankees could absolutely use, if even for just one season.

It has also come out that, while they are looking at Rollins for a trade, they are also wary of free agents Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie, who would cost only money. Hanley offers the most with the bat, but also might not be a shortstop for very long and has tons of injury concerns attached to him. Cabrera and Lowrie are both younger than Rollins, but would require multi-year commitments for slightly lesser offensive production and much worse defense. It seems that if the Yankees are going to add a new shortstop, it's going to be someone who can field his position, which is why they seem interested in Andrus and Rollins in the first place.

What it all looks to be coming down to in the early goings of the offseason is Stephen Drew or a trade. By choosing Drew or Rollins they can get the kind of talent they want without having to worry about five years down the line. The Yankees are playing it safe and that's not a bad thing in this instance. They finally have a chance to add a shortstop with superior defensive skills and in a market where offensive production is down and defensive value is up, it looks like they're not going to miss this opportunity.

The overlooked AL rookie

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Jose Abreu and a duo of Yankee pitchers got most of the AL Rookie of the Year press, and deservedly so. But let's not forget the guy who finished second to Abreu.

Jose Abreu clearly deserved to be the AL Rookie of the Year, and the voters unanimously agreed. The second-place finisher, however, flew rather under the radar in 2014. Matt Shoemaker of the Angels put up a 3.04 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 136 innings, good enough for 2.1 fWAR. Those are solid numbers, sure, but how do they stack up against other AL rookies'?

For the purposes of this discussion, we'll stick to only pitchers, since Abreu was so clearly in a class of his own anyway. That leaves us with two Yankees and an Astro: Dellin Betances (third), Masahiro Tanaka (fifth), and Collin McHugh (fourth). The following table shows how they stack up against one another:

PlayerIPERAFIPfWAR
Shoemaker136.03.043.262.1
Betances90.01.401.643.2
Tanaka136.12.773.043.2
McHugh154.22.733.113.3

It's not looking good for Shoemaker. As a starter, he has the edge on Betances in innings pitched, but comes in last in every other category. He's last in K/9, too. There's one category Shoemaker leads that probably explains much of the discrepancy between his play and the voting, though: wins. At 16-4, he got the better spin of the roulette wheel than did either Tanaka or McHugh, at 13-5 and 11-9 respectively.

As many have dissected the value of pitcher wins (hint: they don't have much), I won't do so here, but suffice it to say that Shoemaker was treated more favorably in the voting than some more accomplished peers.

Okay, so we've established there were probably better choices for the runner-up to Abreu. But what exactly is Shoemaker going to produce for the Angels in years to come? In what I guess is a sequel to last week's post, what follows is a brief compilation of various projections for Shoemaker, coupled with some nice graphs.

Steamer has Shoemaker throwing 182 innings in 2015 with a 4.04 ERA and 3.98 FIP. Those projections aren't at all surprising, given that Shoemaker was rather unimpressive for most of his minor-league tenure before breaking out in 2014. (In stints, including the minors, where he's thrown more than five innings, last year's FIP was his lowest – and in the majors to boot!)

A quick peek at Shoemaker's game log begins to tease out more information: from July 26th on, he allowed three or fewer runs in every appearance, allowing three earned only once, on September 5th. The next two charts might help explain why. Shoemaker horizontal release

Shoemaker vertical release

The top chart is horizontal release point (zero is the center of the rubber, so from the catcher's POV righties are in the negatives), and the bottom one is vertical release point. Sometime in late June (possibly after the 27th, when he got rocked for 8 runs and 11 hits in 4 innings?), Shoemaker made a fairly significant mechanical adjustment, pushing his arm slot more towards pure overhand and less sidearm. I wasn't able to find any good GIFs to illustrate the point, but six inches in and two up means a lot in such a precise discipline.

I touched briefly last week on the Angels' side of the Adam Eaton deal, and how they got Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago. Both had solid if unspectacular years, with Santiago bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen (having been replaced by Shoemaker, actually) and Skaggs pitching consistently until being forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in August. With (injured) emerging ace Garrett Richards and a surprisingly spry 32-year-old Jered Weaver, the Angels should actually have a pretty solid rotation next year if everyone remains healthy. While that's a big if, especially since Richards isn't guaranteed back for Opening Day, a top four of Richards, Weaver, Shoemaker, and C.J. Wilson or Skaggs isn't half bad.

No, Shoemaker might not be the kind of star that the players he beat in the Rookie of the Year voting are. But that doesn't mean he can't be a solid contributor on an excellent team expected to contend once again next year.

. . .

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.

Steven Silverman is a featured writer at Beyond the Box Score and a student at Carnegie Mellon University. He also writes for Batting Leadoff. You can follow him on Twitter at @Silver_Stats or email him at Steven@SilverStats.com.


Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Victor Martinez

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Should the Yankees make a run at the best offensive player available this winter?

2014 Statistics: .335/.409/.565, 32 HR, 103 RBIs, .411 wOBA, 166 wRC+

2015 Age: 36

Position: DH/1B/C

Victor Martinez enters the free agent market as a switch hitter in his late 30's with a bit of an injury history whose resurgence with the bat has returned him to All-Star form. At this stage in his career he's become a liability in the field and on the base paths so whichever team lands him this off-season will be investing solely in his ability to continue hitting. If this sounds familiar to Yankee fans it's because Carlos Beltran could have been described exactly this way last winter. The Yankees decided to make that investment but have gotten no return on it so far. However, that doesn't mean that Martinez will suffer the same fate or that the Yankees should necessarily avoid signing him this year for that reason.

After a torn ACL caused Martinez to sit out the entire 2012 season he returned to play a full slate of games, mostly at designated hitter, for the Tigers in 2013. His performance was solid, if not up to his career standard, that year but he turned things around in a big way during his 2014 campaign. Again serving mostly as a designated hitter he was dominant from both sides of the plate, putting up career highs in all three slash stats while ranking second in the majors in each of them as well. What's more impressive, he set a career high in home runs but only struck out in a minuscule 6.6% of his plate appearances. Even after adjusting for the fact that he plays in the hitter-friendly Comerica Park, there's no doubt that he was among the best offensive weapons in baseball last year. His peripheral numbers also suggest that he could remain an elite hitter for at least the short-term future. So how would he fit in with the Yankees?

For the second straight season last year the Yankees were well below average at the plate despite a concerted and costly effort to improve through free agency. Purely from a baseball standpoint, the Yankees will need to upgrade the offense again this year and Martinez is probably the best hitter available in the free agent pool. The problem is, the positions he can play don't coincide with vacancies in the team's roster. At catcher and first base, the Yankees currently employ the defensively superior Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira who have multiple years remaining on their contracts. That leaves designated hitter as the only other option and while it's the ideal place for Martinez, it will likely be occupied by a combination of the aforementioned Beltran and the newly reinstated Alex Rodriguez. Martinez will want to optimize his playing time and that's just not going to happen in New York.

From a financial standpoint, signing Martinez makes even less sense for the Yankees. His monster year means that he'll be seeking a contract above and beyond what the comparable but still less productive Beltran received last year. Using that three-year, $45 million deal as a baseline, Martinez will probably command a four-year deal worth somewhere between $17 and $20 million annually. The team has more urgent needs at shortstop, third base and the starting rotation so if he comes to the Bronx it will significantly cut into the money that would be better utilized filling those holes. Considering Martinez's age and injury history there's also a fair amount of risk that comes along with signing him and the last thing the Yankees need is another superstar collecting his paycheck from the disabled list. Kicking the tires at the very least on a guy as talented as him is never a bad idea but they're probably better off just walking away from this one.

What is the Plan B for the Yankees offseason?

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Many changes are ahead but will the Yankees sign their first choices in this free agent market?

It appears that the Yankees priorities this offseason are to acquire a starting shortstop along with re-signing Chase Headley, Brandon McCarthy, Chris Young and maybe David Robertson. They reached a one-year agreement with Young quickly, inking the 31-year-old outfielder to a one-year, $2.5 million dollar deal on Saturday. Although the rhetoric out of the Headley and McCarthy camps was that they enjoyed their time in New York and would like to come back, the business side is dictating that they hold out for the best contract offer. That in itself makes me nervous that their initial plan may not come to fruition, as negotiations with Robinson Cano showed. Once the front office and ownership place a contract valuation on a player, they aren’t likely to exceed that value in negotiations. As nice as it would be to be a part of the front office winter meetings, none of us really know what they’re backup plans are until they miss their initial targets. Here are my thoughts as to where the team will head if they have to resort to alternatives from the initial plan.

The free agent market is thin at third base this year as Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez are clearly the best options in the group, though local media outlets have reported that the team is unlikely to hand out the type of contract that Ramirez and Sandoval will command. The backup plan at the position is most likely already in-house with Martin Prado. Acquired last season at the trade deadline from Arizona, Prado is a solid hitter and defender that would continue to be productive if pressed into service at the hot corner.

This situation is much dicier to me than the Headley contract negotiations. The second half performance by McCarthy saw his stock rise from a shaky starter to a solid second tier free agent. After Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields, McCarthy heads the next group of free agent pitchers and it could be argued that he offers the most value of any starter on the market. With Shane Greene establishing himself last season, plus a returning CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, I feel they will only add someone such as Chris Capuano if McCarthy leaves.

There hasn’t been a publicly circulated Plan A to fill this position, so we’ll cover all the bases on this one. The likeliest of scenarios here would be bringing Stephen Drew back as his only cost will be money.  Coming off of a season in which he was out of game shape, the results were just brutal. He’s not as bad as the numbers showed, but he’s likely not more than a .250 hitter with 10+ home runs with solid defense. Rumors continue to swirl of the Yankees exploring the trade market for their new shortstop.  So far Alexei Ramirez and Elvis Andrus have emerged as possible targets and everyone knows Troy Tulowitzki’s desire to play shortstop in the pinstripes. However, I don’t see a deal happening that involves Aaron Judge, Luis Severino or Greg Bird. In my mind Stephen Drew is the fallback option if they can’t find a reasonable trade for Jeter’s replacement and hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

The best route for the Yankee’s would be David Robertson accepting the team’s qualifying offer, but that is very unlikely. This situation could get sticky quickly if Detroit and Washington get involved in contract negotiations with Robertson and start a high priced bidding war. This is his one chance on a big payday and he will most likely go to the highest bidding team. If Robertson departs his replacement will come from within the organization as Dellin Betances is the closer in waiting. Betances established himself as an elite late inning force this year for manager Joe Girardi, striking out 135 batters in just 90 innings pitched.

There’s many holes to be filled on the roster this offseason and none of it will be easy. After many years of big free agent contracts turning sour, it appears ownership and the front office are looking to more low-risk contracts. That is a sharp departure from the Yankee way in regards to signing free agents compared to years past. As was the case with the plan to get below the $189 million dollar threshold, a change of course is always possible. However, maybe ownership feels it’s time to re-group without rebuilding and hold tight for a year or two when A-Rod, Sabathia and Teixeira come off the books and give greater financial flexibility. Coincidently, those contracts will be coming off the books around the time that Severino, Judge and Bird should be arriving in the Bronx. No question the team is in an awkward, unfamiliar position, but brighter times are ahead, even if 2013-2015 are painful seasons for us fans. Brian Cashman has quite the challenge in front of him.

Yankees GM Brian Cashman says Chase Headley or any acquired third baseman would start over Alex Rodriguez

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Finally, someone is talking some sense about third base.

Although Alex Rodriguez and his monster contract are set to return to the Yankees in 2015, at least one member of the front office is aware of the large chance that, nearly two years removed from playing baseball at a regular level, A-Rod probably won't be any good at third base. At the GM meetings on Tuesday, GM Brian Cashman told media that Chase Headley or any third baseman they might acquire in a trade would be named the starter over Rodriguez. That would leave A-Rod delegated to designated hitter and backup duties at third and first base.

Manager Joe Girardi has already said that he was preparing as if Rodriguez would play third base upon his return. Sounds like Cashman, smartly, has other ideas. The team has been fairly vocal so far in their desire to bring Headley back for another season in the Bronx. It doesn't take a great leap to understand why that might be, considering that Rodriguez would be attempting to play a demanding defensive position on two surgically-repaired hips. Headley was brilliant defensively in his stint with the Yankees last season. He wasn't bad with the bat either, which always helps.

Cashman saying that any acquired third baseman would be the starter is pretty necessary to do if he hopes to convince Headley or anyone else to sign on with the Yankees. There's approximately no chance that Headley would re-sign if he thought he was going to be relegated to a part-time role. Certainly not when he's probably the second most desirable third baseman on the free agent market. Guaranteeing him a starting job might be enough to convince him to give it another go in New York. It's nice to see that the front office isn't deluding themselves into thinking that Rodriguez is going to be able to play at the levels he did before his body started to pretty rapidly break down. Going into 2015 with A-Rod as Plan A at third base would have been incredibly foolish. Luckily the Yankees seem to have come to the same conclusion.

With or without Robertson, the Yankees bullpen could be worse in 2015

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The Yankees had one of the best bullpens in 2014, but that may not be true again next year.

With a mediocre 84-78 record, and an even more disappointing .478 (77-85) 3rd Order Win%, the 2014 Yankees gave fans plenty to complain about. Their offense was one of baseball's worst, and thanks to a plethora of injuries, their starting pitching wasn't nearly as good as it could have been. But for all that went wrong, there was one area where the Yankees were pretty dominant: the bullpen.

David Robertson turned in yet another fine season in his first year as the team's closer, while Dellin Betances and Adam Warren stepped up in a big way to provide a reliable seventh and eighth inning bridge. Throw in strong showings from Shawn Kelley, David Huff, and Matt Thornton, and the Bombers had one of baseball's deepest bullpens. Only the Royals bullpen -- and their three-headed monster of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera -- racked up more fWAR than the Yankees squad's impressive 5.9 WAR mark.

After turning down the Yankees one-year, $15.3M qualifying offer, Robertson seems primed to test the free agent waters, leaving the ace reliever's future's up in the air at the moment. Whether or not he'll resign is anyone's guess, but I'll be surprised if the Yankees don't end up with one of the upper-echelon, free agent relievers come Spring -- be it Robertson, Andrew Miller, Rafael Soriano, or Luke Gregerson.

In any event, a bullpen of Betances, Warren, Kelley, and a solid free agent sounds pretty comforting -- without even considering the potential impact of prospects Jacob Lindgren Nick Rumbelow, and Tyler Webb. But while the Bombers collection of relievers looks good on paper, there's no guarantee what this group will put up in 2015.

For one, the Steamer projection system doesn't completely buy into this group's 2014 performance, and forecasts a drop-off from many of the Yankees key bullpen pieces. The system's particularly bearish on Betances, who's 1.40 ERA was the 4th lowest  among qualified relievers last season. Steamer has his ERA doubling to 2.80. Still very good, but not lights-out like he was last year. Warren and Huff are also forecasted for ERA spikes of over half-a-point.

Even after accounting for these drop-offs, the Yankee bullpen looks pretty solid. Yet there's yet another reason to be uncertain about this group's prospects in 2015. This one has less to do with the Yankees current crop of arms, but with the volatility of relievers in general. From year to year, there's an awful lot of turnover among the game's elite relievers. The good ones have a habit of falling off the map in a hurry (see: Ernesto Frieri), while elite ones often emerge from unlikely places. The Yankees own Dellin Betances is a recent example of this phenomenon, along with Wade Davis (previously a mediocre as a starter),  Sean Doolittle (a converted first baseman), and Neal Cotts (spent four years in exile).

Here's a little example to demonstrate the volatility of bullpen arms. If the Yankees sign Robertson or Miller, they'll have two relievers projected for a sub-3 ERA next year per Steamer. That sounds good and all, but a look at the 21 relievers who were projected for a sub-3 ERA last year shows just how little that actually means. About half of the group fared pretty well --11 of the 21 (52%) logged at 50 innings of sub-3 ERA ball -- but the other 10 either got hurt, posted an ERA north of 3, or both.

The Yankees bullpen was excellent last year, so more likely than not, it'll be good next year as well. But even if they keep all of the pieces in place by bringing back Robertson, there's still a good chance something will go awry, leaving us clamoring for bullpen help come July. Predicting bullpen performance is just that much of a crap shoot.

Mets interviewed Pat Roessler, former Yankees farm director, for assistant hitting coach position

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Earlier in the offseason, the Mets hired former Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long.

While the Mets hired former Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long as their new hitting coach earlier this offseason, the team has not yet filled the position of assistant hitting coach. David Waldstein of the Times reports that the Mets have interviewed Pat Roessler, former farm director for the Yankees who they recently let go.

Roessler has had a long career coaching professionally, dating back to his time as a minor league hitting instructor for the White Sox in the late 1980s. From there, he worked in the Expos and Pirates systems, spent a year as the major league hitting coach for the Expos, and moved on to the Astros and Yankees systems.

Assistant hitting coaches have not always been a thing in Major League Baseball, though they have increased in popularity over the past few years. The Mets hired Luis Natera as their assistant hitting coach before the 2014 season but let him go after the season ended.

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