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PSA Comments of the Day 11/25/14: Good luck with that Red Sox lineup, Yankees pitching

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The rumor that the Red Sox signed both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval turned out to be true. Barring injuries, the Red Sox lineup looks dangerous once again. Still no word on their pitching. Pitchers and catchers report in 86 days.

Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez are heading to the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees pitching staff will have deal with that lineup for the majority of the year. Well, barring injuries of course, which is a legit problem the Red Sox should be concerned about. That and their pitching staff. The Yankees, and the rest of the AL East, are all waiting to see what becomes of that.

Comments of the Day

This is quite the Yankees Thanksgiving idea from River Ave U.

Meanwhile, Matt Freedom is curious why everyone else isn't on board with the "Just For Fun" aspect of that thread.

GIF of the Day

There were no GIFs yesterday. The GIF spirit of Pinstripe Alley is saddened by this.

Honorable Mod Mention

Just a reminder from Andrew that Greg Bird exists and he is still the word!

Fun Questions
  • Thanksgiving Cranberry Sauce: Canned, homemade with real cranberries, or both?
  • Thanksgiving Dessert: What does you family do for dessert?
Song of the Day

Porcelain by Moby

As always, link us your song of the day!

Thanksgiving is fast approaching. The Yankees have yet to make any significant moves regarding their 2015 roster plans. Fans are getting antsy and Pinstripe Alley writers are expecting it to come when they're sitting down to eat. Things could be better right now.

Pass the salt!


Padres and Royals swap OF Reymond Fuentes for LHP Kyle Bartsch

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New GM of the Padres AJ Preller pulls the trigger on his first trade, sending outfielder Reymond Fuentes to the AL Champs for High-A reliever Kyle Bartsch.

Last Thursday the Royals picked up a former top prospect and first round pick for a left handed bullpen piece, sending Kyle Bartsch to the Padres in exchange for Reymond Fuentes. It may not have received much press at the time due to the 40-man roster crunch, but now looks like a good time to break down the two players involved in AJ Preller's first trade as a General Manager.

OF Reymond Fuentes

Photo courtesy of NJ Baseball

A first round pick in 2009 (28th overall) out of Fernando Callejo High School in Manati, Puerto Rico, Fuentes signed for a cool $1,134,000 bonus with the Boston Red Sox. Cousin of Yankees outfielder Carlos Beltran, he was sent to the Padres following the 2010 season in a package including Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly for Adrian Gonzalez. He made his major league debut in 2013 for the Padres after hitting .330/.413/.448 between AA and AAA with 35 stolen bases, 25 doubles, six home runs, and 51 walks to 81 punch outs. FanGraphs had him down for a 145 wRC+ and .388 wOBA between the two stops and he went 5-33 in a stint in September with the parent club that didn't inspire much confidence.

This past year he once again split time between AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso, hitting .324/.386/.453 in 194 PA's in AA and .261/.337/.376 through 178 trips to the plate in AAA. All told he made 372 plate appearances with 25 stolen bases, 15 doubles, five homers, five triples, and 33 walks (8.9%) to 64 strike outs (17.2%). He hit a combined .294/.363/.416 with a 116 wRC+ and .354 wOBA, scoring 54 runs with 33 RBI's and was only caught stealing three times. The left handed hitter provided more thump away from home, hitting .297/.363/.456 in 206 plate appearances  while only managing a .290/.362/.366 line at home, but he was 19 for 19 in stolen base chances in El Paso and San Antonio. He was also much better against right handed pitchers than same handed throwers, posting an OPS 151 points better against righties (.805 vs RHP and .654 vs LHP). His game really picked up after a slow start, hitting .355 with a 15:27 BB:K ratio and was 13 for 13 in stolen bases from June 1st until his last game on July 26th when he suffered a leg injury.

Photo courtesy of Bill Center/Padres.MLBlogs.com

Fuentes' main tool is his speed which translates to both sides of the ball. He's a plus runner with good base stealing instincts and excellent range and defense in left field or center field. He doesn't show anything in the power department, probably maxing out at 5-10 homers per year at his peak. Scouts are down on his hit tool, despite posting at least a .315 average his last two trips through the Texas League spanning nearly 600 plate appearances. A red flag there is a .381 BABIP in 2013 and .392 BABIP in 2014 at the AA level. He's a career .302 hitter in 245 AAA plate appearances though with a .310 BABIP in 2014. His arm isn't quite noodle status but it's also not a strong point in his profile, grading out anywhere from fringy to a tick below average. Overall, I believe he could handle holding down either left or center field in a starting role for a team out of contention. Going to the Royals though, Fuentes looks like a 4th outfielder and another speed option on the bench. With limited time spent in AAA, he's most likely to head to Omaha to kick off the 2015 season.

The trade was necessary for the Padres as they had to make a decision on whether they should protect Fuentes from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. By deciding to deal him, its obvious he was not going to make the cut, and they were at least able to get another player in return. After the trade, he was added to Kansas City's 40-man roster.

When John ran through the San Diego system in his book, he had this to say about Fuentes -

I was quite negative about Reymond Fuentes in the ’13 book, writing that while he was a great athlete, "he can’t hit." Ahem. Well he sure made me look bad, hitting .330/.414/.448 combined between San Antonio and Tucson. Texas League observers felt that while he was luckier last year compared to ’12, he also made very genuine improvements, showing much better plate discipline and a sharper, more consistent swing. He did have trouble making contact during a major league trial, but overall his chances appear much better than they did before. Fuentes has a weak arm but is otherwise a very good fielder, excellent in left field and solid in center. He played some right field at San Antonio, which is fine if you don’t mind the arm. My guess is that Fuentes will be something like a .260/.330/.370 hitter, not enough to start for most teams but good enough to hold a roster spot as a defense-oriented reserve and platoon bat. Grade C+.

LHP Kyle Bartsch

Photo courtesy of Alan Dobbins Photography

An unknown in almost all prospect circles, Kyle Bartsch was selected by the Royals in the 7th round of the 2013 draft out of the University of South Alabama, signing for a pittance of $10,000. The 5'10, 210 pound senior sign made 21 appearances out of the Idaho Falls pen after signing, totaling 29.1 innings of relief with 37 strike outs (31.6%), nine walks (7.7%), 20 hits and zero homers, good for a 2.45 ERA, 2.49 FIP, and 0.99 WHIP.  He limited Pioneer League hitters to a measly .190/.250/.305 triple slash with an incredible month of August where he surrendered just five hits in 14.1 innings, walking two with 20 K's.

Going into his age 23 season, the Royals front office decided to push Bartsch up two levels to High A Wilmington where he was more in line age-wise with the rest of the league. He made 41 appearances for the Blue Rocks, putting together a 2.29 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 55 innings with a 1.04 WHIP, 52 strike outs (23.6%), 12 walks (5.5%), 45 hits and three homers allowed. Bartsch tallied seven saves in nine opportunities while also racking up ground balls 47.4% of the time with a 1.85 ground out to fly out ratio. The opposing Carolina League hitters only mustered a .227/.268/.323 line against him with a .275 BABIP and 77.7% strand rate.

Photo courtesy of Jen Nevius

Looking at his splits, you can tell he's harder for left handed hitters to make solid contact off him, with lefties hitting just .213/.258/.262 against him with one extra base hit, a home run. He was also especially lethal once again in the month of August, limiting hitters to a .111/.158/.167 triple slash with 13 strike outs to just two walks, with two doubles and two singles allowed the entire month. Right handed hitters fared slightly better, hitting .234/.272/.350 off him.

The scouting report on Bartsch is pretty simple. He utilized a low 90's fastball with good life that tops out at 94 mph and gets good sinking action in the lower bands. He also works with a pair of breaking balls and a change up. He's got a high 70's curve and low 80's slider that look very similar and each flash potential. The change up is in the 79-81 mph range and is clearly his fourth pitch.

*****

I like this deal for the Royals, taking advantage of a 40-man roster crunch to add a young outfielder that still has potential with a first round pedigree, only costing a relief prospect currently with a LOOGY cieling. If the BABIP gods continue to bless Fuentes and he maxes out he could potentially be a .290-.300 hitter with 10 HR and 20-30 stolen bases and good defense. Bartsch could end up being a useful bullpen piece in a year or so if everything breaks right for him.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Edinson Volquez

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Should the Yankees consider Edinson Volquez to fill a spot in the 2015?

2014 Statistics: 192.2 IP, 31 GS, 3.04 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 6.5 K/9, 3,3 BB/9, 0.7 fWAR

2015 Age: Turns 32 on July 3, 2015

Position: Right-handed starting pitcher

The New York Yankees are in the market for one, maybe two starters. At the moment, it appears as though the front office has made Brandon McCarthy the primary target, and might also be interested in re-signing Hiroki Kuroda. It's not clear what the fallback plans might be should the Yankees not bring back either, assuming the current leaks suggesting front office isn't interested in Max Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields are indeed accurate.

One option the Yankees might consider for the back of the rotation is Edinson Volquez. Coming off a solid season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, his best since 2008 with the Cincinnati Reds, Volquez has likely reclaimed some of the value that has slipped over the last few years. The former ace is yet to turn 32, and has lost none of his velocity with his fastball and sinker still averaging over 93 miles-per-hour. With no draft-pick compensation attached Volquez will likely earn a significantly larger commitment than the 1 year, $5 million dollar tryout the Pirates gave him last offseason; though on the face of things even at 2 years and around $16-$18 million he could represent a tidy bargain.

Dig a little deeper though, and red flags start to emerge. The gleaming 3.04 ERA masking a less spectacular 4.15 FIP, the improved walk rate coming with a corresponding decline in strikeouts, and a BABIP of 0.263 which was 30 points below his career average. The peripherals suggest that Volquez is the same pitcher he has been for the last few seasons, and perhaps his rebound in Pittsburgh had more to do with the Pirates defense as opposed to any improved mechanics.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Still, this is not to suggest that Volquez is not a fit with the Yankees. For one, as is perhaps natural with sinkerballers he is a ground ball pitcher who allows fewer than one home run per nine innings pitched, which might limit the damage one might expect for a National League pitcher transitioning to Yankee Stadium. Secondly, even with his statline suggesting he might be a candidate for overpay, the improved analytical models used around the league makes it more likely that his market will account more for his peripherals than his 13-7 record and strong ERA.

Edinson Volquez isn't in the same class of free agent pitchers as Brandon McCarthy or even Hiroki Kuroda; though of course he will be cheaper than the former and he is significantly younger than the latter. Although, as a fallback option and potential veteran stopgap, he might be a solid candidate to fill a spot in the 2015 rotation.

Yankees Rumors: New York likely out on a potential Troy Tulowitzki trade

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As we all know, the Yankees need a new shortstop. They're likely looking far and wide to replace Derek Jeter, and one favorite rumor magnet has been Troy Tulowitzki. Known as the best shortstop in the game, Tulo has suffered from an inability to remain healthy for an entire season. With the Rockies organization in disarray and currently on the outs with their star player, it's easy to see how the two teams could match up for a trade. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem likely to happen.

Tulowitzki is still owed $114 million over the next six years, but according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, everything points toward the Yankees not wanting to take on another big contract. They are already paying Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran big money while struggling and dealing with injury problems. The Yankees are currently looking around for bargains this winter by targeting mid-tier free agents like Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley even as the Red Sox sign Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.

What makes things even less likely to come together is that rival officials believe that the Rockies are not interested in moving Tulowitzki. Despite the strained relationship between Tulo and Colorado, the organization really has no reason to trade him if they believe keeping him would be the best course of action for the franchise at this juncture. Maybe some day down the line they'll be ready, but it doesn't seem like that will be happening in 2015.

Even if Troy Tulowitzki doesn't come together this offseason, word is going around that the Yankees have "made a series of trade offers to teams for shortstops." We don't know exactly what that means, but Cashman looks much more likely to go for a trade over signing someone like Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera. The Yankees could be checking in on Elvis Andrus, Alexei Ramirez, Didi Gregorius, Jimmy Rollins, and Starlin Castro, or any of the other Cubs shortstops before they eventually settle on Stephen Drew.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Alex Rios

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He was most recently on the team's trade radar; could the Yankees try to target him once again?

2014 Statistics: 131 games, .280/.311/.398, 92 wRC+, 4 HR, 0.2 fWAR

2015 Age: 34

Position: Right handed corner outfielder

Last month the Rangers declined Alex Rios' $14 million team option for 2015, so it's pretty easy to say that there is a ceiling to his market value. After coming off of two three-plus win seasons in 2012 and 2013, Rios was absolutely dreadful in 2014, putting up a slash line of .280/.311/.398 (92 wRC+) and by all three WAR measures, he was worth less than one win in nearly a full season of play.

This is not to say that Rios is a bad player overall. At the age of 33, Rios has put up seven 2.0+ fWAR seasons. It isn't easy to be at least an average player for almost a decade. The problem is, though, that in between those seasons of decency there is absolute trash. He has had four seasons of less than 1.0 fWAR, and two seasons that were at or well below replacement level. Consistency and reliability are just as important as being good, and Rios has not been that over the past few years.

rios_woba

Here are Rios' wOBA marks over his career, and if you look over the past five years, you get the following wRC+'s: 109, 60, 126, 104, and 92. And even though I'm sure his true talent level is more closely aligned with the past two seasons, the point is that it's incredibly hard to tell which Alex Rios you will get over a full season.

Even beyond the point that it's pretty hard to peg what his true talent level truly is, it's worthy to note that whatever it may be, it's certainly getting worse. If we look at K%,

rios_ks

or BB% (which was never good to begin with),

rios_bb

or even ISO,

rios_iso

we get trends that are all heading in negative directions.

And the one strength he used to have, defense, is also deteriorating. In 2008, both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs had Rios as a 2.1 dWAR and +18.2 defender, respectively. Today that is probably not the case. While Baseball Prospectus' FRAA rates him as a +5.4 defender, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference find him to be a negative.

In terms of the Yankees' needs, Rios is a square peg in a round hole. Given the age and outfield depth of the team, I don't see the need for a corner outfielder with below average offensive and defensive ability. It may work for a team that has an absolute black hole at a corner outfield position, but the Yankees are better off to stay the course on Carlos Beltran than to sink another few million dollars into what would be a risky venture. Of all the possible outfielders that the Yankees could possibly justify signing, this one is one of the least justifiable.

Rockies reportedly unwilling to trade Troy Tulowitzki

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This offseason is playing out a lot like the last one in this regard.

It would be foolish to say that the Tulo-to-New York talk is officially dead, but it appears we've just about reached that point.

The Yankees have "no interest whatsoever" in acquiring Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and the $114 million owed to him, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. The Yanks apparently mean business for the first time in decades when it comes to avoiding albatross contracts, but that might not be the only obstacle between them and a deal for Colorado's best player.

The Rockies' brass is giving rival executives the impression that they won't trade Tulowitzki, per Martino. That decision might indicate that Colorado plans on going forward with the idea that it can contend in the National League West despite numerous holes in the rotation and bullpen, as well as behind the plate.

So, not only is the "Jeter's replacement" narrative on life support, but it also seems as if Tulo going anywhere is doubtful at this point.

It certainly wouldn't hurt Colorado to keep Tulowitzki, a .340/.432/.603 hitter in 2014 and still easily the best shortstop in the game when healthy, going forward. But unless they immediately begin the process of building a winner around him, the Rockies might be stuck with a disgruntled, oft-injured player with an untradeable contract sooner than they might think.

Is Chris Young a good enough backup plan in the outfield?

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With Carlos Beltran’s injury history, is Chris Young enough of a backup plan in case Beltran’s elbow falters again?

With Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran under contract next season and expected to constitute the starting Yankee outfield, New York seems pretty set.  Still, after injuries hampered Beltran's ability to play the field last year, they must feel they need some insurance policy in the outfield.  Enter Chris Young, who they've signed to a one-year deal and who performed admirably in his short stint with New York at the end of last season.  But is Young really enough of a backup that the Yankees shouldn't worry about adding any more outfield help this offseason?

Beltran's bone spur issues limited him to 109 games in 2014.  To make matters worse, he only played the outfield in 32 of them, leaving Ichiro Suzuki to man right field for 133 games last season.  Needless to say, the Ichiro experiment didn't work out in the Yankees favor over the past two seasons - his defense wasn't bad, but he couldn't hit a lick (71 wRC+ in 2013, 86 wRC+ in 2014).

However, Young is likely to be at least a bit better than Ichiro next season, especially at the plate.  While Young hasn't had a great season since 2011 (when he posted a 102 wRC+ and a 4.5 fWAR, boosted mainly by his great defense in centerfield), he did impress during his stay with the Yankees last fall.  In 79 plate appearances, he hit .282/.354/.521 with a 146 wRC+.  While it's clearly a small sample size, he does have a 94 wRC+ for his career with a .427 slugging percentage, showing that he will bring some right-handed power to the lineup - something the Yankees desperately need.  Steamer has projected him to have a 97 wRC+ with a 1.3 fWAR in 105 games in 2015, and while that's not earth-shattering, if he can hit about that well while spelling Beltran in the field (hopefully boosting Beltran's batting numbers in turn), the Yankees should be in good shape.

In Young, the Yankees have a decent backup who didn't break the bank.  And that's really where the rub lies.  There are a few more talented options out there (Melky Cabrera and Nick Markakis come to mind) but, even if they were willing to forego a guaranteed starting spot, they'd still cost a lot more than Young in both years and money.  The Yankees will more than likely need that money to fill infield and rotational holes, and even if they didn't, there is still value to be considered.  Spending tens of millions of dollars for a fourth outfielder that may not even play that much is just not an efficient way to spend money.  While we may think the Steinbrenners are just printing money in some back room, they're not just going to throw away cash when they don't need to.

Other than signing a bigger name to a bloated contract to be an insurance policy, there aren't a whole lot of options.  Nick Swisher's name has been floated in trade rumors, but he's still owed $30 million over the next two years and is coming off the worst year of his career in which he hit .208 with a 75 wRC+.  Torii Hunter's probably going to retire, and will just be another near-DH type on a team full of them.  Alex Rios has been in steady decline over the past few seasons.  The minor league outfielders certainly don't offer a whole lot to be hopeful about.

While it would be nice if the Yankees had a bit more certainty in their outfield, Chris Young's a decent rebound candidate whose cheap contract offers a lot more value than any multi-year deal for a more desirable free agent.  His right-handed bat and potential to slug around .400 with 15 homers makes Young about the best fit behind Beltran the Yankees could hope for.  While Beltran going down could significantly hurt the Yankee lineup again in 2015, Young is about the best available bet to mitigate that risk.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/26/14

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New York Post | Ken Davidoff:Dellin Betances talks being thankful and wanting David Robertson back in the Yankees' bullpen in 2015.

New York Daily News | Mark Feinsand: The Giants may represent the Yankees' biggest competition for third baseman Chase Headley, but the team isn't willing to get into a bidding war for him.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: Yankees need a shortstop for 2015. There aren't a lot of good options ready on the farm, but Ali Castillo is batting .312 in Venezuelan winter ball.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: There are six mistakes the Yankees can't afford to make this offseason. Finding a shortstop worse than Stephen Drew and relying on Alex Rodriguez would be two of them.

MLB.com | Bryan Hoch: The Yankees have ground to make up after big splashes by the Red Sox.


PSA Comments of the Day 11/26/14: The waiting game sucks

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The Yankees have still not made any major moves. Is patience a virtue when it comes to the Yankees, or does it drive you insane? Pitchers and catchers report in 85 days.

Now that Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez are off the market, the question about what the Yankees will do regarding their infield issues is still up in the air. Chase Headley is still available for the Yankees to sign to play third base. The Yankees still need a shortstop not named Stephen Drew. With second base, they have more options with Martin Prado, Jose Pirela, and the recent engaged Rob Refsnyder. For now, we play the waiting game.

Comments of the Day

Apparently natteringnabob questions what the Red Sox are doing with their recent acquisitions. Fair questions, I might add. .

Harlan is preparing a lesson plan.

Harlan and Michael discuss what the Yankees strategy is. So far, no conclusions.

Finally, Michael responds to the thought that the Yankees have no farm system currently. Greg Bird is sad now.

GIF of the Day

This was the only GIF posted yesterday. You may stare at it.

Honorable Mod Mention

Nothing really honorable from the mods yesterday. Just waiting. Lots and lots of waiting.

Fun Questions
  • Thanksgiving Dinner: Turkey or Ham? Or both?
  • Thanksgiving Sides: We mentioned cranberry sauce yesterday, but what are some other classic sides you have at your Thanksgiving dinner?
Song of the Day

Wait In Vain by Bob Marley

Nothing is really happening in the Yankees Universe currently. Since I imagine Pinstripe Alley won't be too busy tomorrow, barring a surprise Yankee move of course, why not share some fun stories about previous Thanksgivings if you have any? We'd love to hear them. Or the Yankees could do something. Either or, discuss away.

The waiting game sucks. Let's play Hungry Hungry Hippo!

Yankees rumors: Yanks only willing to go to three years for Chase Headley

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The Yanks seem to want Headley back, but only at their price.

This off-season has wasted little time in moving right along, with big contracts getting dropped on Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval before anyone even bought their supplies for Thanksgiving. That's a lot of notable names gone already, but it does not appear Chase Headley will be following a similarly accelerated signing period. It's no secret that the Yankees are interested in bringing their third baseman back after he hit .262/.371/.398 with a 121 wRC+ and terrific defense in 58 games for them after being acquired from the Padres. However, according to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are hesitant to give Headley anything beyond a three-year contract:

The Yankees have signaled a willingness to give free agent third baseman Chase Headley a three-year deal, but with a thin third-base market now that Aramis Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are off the board, it appears Headley is looking around for something better.

Headley was well liked in the Yankees clubhouse, and it is said that he enjoyed New York much more than he would have expected. But Headley turned down a three-year offer believed to have been for about $39 million from the Padres last spring, and expected to do much better than that. He certainly isn't ready to sign up for less than that for the Yankees at the moment. - CBS Sports

Even before third base candidates Sandoval and Ramirez signed their considerable contacts with the Red SoxMLB Trade Rumors predicted a four-year, $48 million contract for Headley, and that price tag is likely going up since he is now the best third baseman on the market. The Giants now have a Panda-sized hole at third base, and since the position can be so difficult to fill, it's not hard to imagine other teams reaching out to Headley. This rumor could, of course, just be a smokescreen in the negotiation process. The Yankees are not obligated to tell the media the truth.

One can understand the Yankees' trepidation about inking Headley to a four-year contract. They have numerous high-value multi-year contracts bogging their payroll down at the moment, and even though his bat has been mostly steady since breaking through with the Padres as a rookie in 2008, the herniated disc he suffered early last year in San Diego sent warning flags. Back problems are the bane of ballplayers, as former Yankees captain Don Mattingly can attest, and they are tough to fight through. Headley required a cortisone shot to overcome it this year, and while he did hit much better afterward, one can only take so many cortisone shots.

Nonetheless, the Yankees need a third baseman in 2015, and Headley only turns 31 next May. I've supported bringing Headley back on multiple occasions since relying on Martin Prado to cover third is just asking for trouble if he gets hurt (among other reasons), and while not ideal, it's not as though the high-rolling Yankees are a franchise short on cash to keep Headley. Would a four-year contract be that crazy to potentially lock down a tricky position?

Poll
What's the most years you would want to give Chase Headley?

  791 votes |Results

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Roberto Hernandez

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He isn't the sexiest name available, but there is still value to be had in a Swingman who can spot start.

2014 Statistics: 164.2 innings, 29 GS, 4.10 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 5.74 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, -0.5 fWAR

2015 Age: 34?

With the starting rotation for next season full of question marks, the Yankees have made it a significant priority to find pitching.  The man formerly known as Fausto Carmona is not the sexiest name floating around the free agent market, but there is still value in being a backend starter and swingman.

2014 proved to be one of the better seasons in Hernandez’ career. Initially signed by the Dodgers as a free agent, Hernandez put up a 4.74 ERA with 48 hits allowed, 30 strikeouts, and 18 walks in 43 2/3 innings. He was eventually traded to the Phillies where he pitched significantly better with a 3.87 ERA with a 108 hits allowed, 75 strikeouts, and 55 free passes in 120 innings.

Hernandez possesses an excellent ability to generate ground balls, thanks to a strong sinking fastball and changeup.  For the 2014 season, Hernandez was able to get batters to beat the ball into the dirt roughly 50% of the time.  Surprisingly, this represents a personal low for the right-hander, who holds a career 56% ground ball rate.

Unfortunately, that is about the most one can expect from Hernandez.  Although he possesses incredibly strong ground ball rates, he is quite homer-prone, giving up roughly one dinger every nine innings.  He is not going to provide a team length as he has only thrown over 180 innings three times in his eight-year career.   Hernandez also does not strike many out batters as his 2014 strikeout rate of 5.74 and career 5.6 K/9 rate can attest.  All of the flaws could be forgiven somewhat if Hernandez was at least able to limit free passes, but that too has proven elusive as Hernandez has given out four free passes every nine innings during this season.

Roberto Hernandez is not a good pitcher outside of his well above average ability to generate ground balls. He does not possess many, if any, redeeming qualities.  He walks too many, strikes out far too few, and gives up a home runs at a fairly high clip.  He may be worth a minor league contract and invitation to spring training, but he should not be guaranteed anything more.

Mets have better odds than Yankees of winning 2015 World Series

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It came from Las Vegas so you know it's true.

According to Bovada's latest odds, the Mets are 20/1 to win the 2015 World Series, putting them in a tie with the defending American League champion Kansas City Royals for the eleventh-best odds in baseball. The Yankees are right behind at 22/1. The Red Sox and Dodgers (both 8/1 odds) are the favorites, while the Nationals (9/1) follow closely behind.

That the Mets are currently viewed as having a better chance to win a championship than the Yankees should not be a major surprise. Although the Yankees won five more games than the Mets in 2014, their -31 run differential, compared to the Mets' +11, was a serious red flag. With David Robertson, Chase Headley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Brandon McCarthy still free agents, the Yankees' roster remains in flux.

Of course, this could all change if and when the Yankees sign players this winter. In fact, with key free agents such as Max Scherzer and Jon Lester still weighing their options, this is all pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Still, it is a nice little nugget of hope for Mets fans to hold on to as the days get shorter and the weather colder, and another indication that better days could be around the corner in Flushing.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Michael Morse

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Michael Morse could solve the Yankees' depth issues at three different spots.

2014 Statistics: 482 PA, .279/.336/.479, 16 HR, 133 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR

2015 Age: 33

Position: Corner outfielder, first baseman and designated hitter

Depending on your perspective, the Yankees are either set at right field, first base and designated hitter in 2015 or they have gaping holes at all three positions. They do have players penciled in at each spot - Carlos Beltran for right, Mark Teixeira for first and Alex Rodriguez as the DH - but those guys are a combined 110 years old and together they've appeared in just under 45 percent of possible games over the past two seasons. The idea that all - or any - will be healthy, consistent contributors throughout next year is borderline preposterous.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, Beltran, Teixeira and Rodriguez are set to earn a combined $57.5 million in 2015 - $63.5 mil if A-Rod passes Willie Mays on the all-time home run list. That makes it fairly unlikely that the club will go out and sign a new starter to replace any of them. As an alternative they could look for a player capable of plugging in at all three slots, and in that search, Michael Morse could be an intriguing name.

Morse, who'll turn 33 in March, has been a bona fide power threat for most of his ten-year major league career. That's a dying breed in a sport increasingly dominated by pitching. He's compiled a career slash line of .281/.335/.473 to go with a pretty ISO of .193. As a right-handed hitter with a lifetime OPS of .821 and a wRC+ of 124 versus left-handed pitchers, Morse would be a balancing addition to a Yankee lineup whose better bats are mostly lefty.

Morse's spray charts show a lot of opposite field power, which is always a useful tool for a righty swinger in Yankee Stadium. In 2012 and 2013 the majority of his home runs went to right field, and though he pulled more of his dingers in 2014, he continued to hit plenty of soaring flies to right, several of which would have gone out in the Bronx.


Source: FanGraphs

On the downside, Morse isn't exactly patient at the plate. He struck out in more than a quarter of his at bats in 2014 while walking at a modest rate of 6.4 percent. He has experience at first base and both corner outfield positions, but his defense leaves much to be desired, especially in the outfield where he has a career UZR/150 of -19.2, including a mark of -25.4 in 2014. He also has an extensive injury history that's allowed him to eclipse 500 plate appearances just once in his career. He spent time on the DL in each of the past three seasons with back, quad and oblique injuries and he had arthroscopic surgery on his left wrist during the 2013-14 off-season.

After a down 2013 in Seattle and Baltimore, Morse played last season on a one-year $6 million contract from the Giants. In his second shot at free agency, this time buoyed by a strong regular season and a solid 6 for 22 playoff run highlighted by a walk-off bomb in game 5 of the NLCS, he'll seek out the first multi-year guarantee of his career. Unlike fellow outfield/DH type free agents like Nelson Cruz and Michael Cuddyer, Morse is qualifying offer and draft pick compensation free, which will certainly inflate his stock.

The two-year, $16 million agreement that Marlon Byrd reached with the Phillies a year ago could be a good model for Morse's free agent value, but he may have his sights set on something more lucrative - like the $21 million pact Cuddyer snagged from the Mets this month, or the three years and $30 mil Billy Butler just got from the A's.

The Yankees already brought back Chris Young, which makes the signing of any other outfielder highly unlikely. But the thought of Young in an everyday role in case of an injury is wholly unappetizing, and a hybrid outfielder/first baseman - one who can actually hit - brings a different kind of value. If the bidding stays on the low end, the Yankees would be wise to show some interest in Morse. He might prefer to sign with a team where he fills a single everyday role, but playing time in New York should be plentiful behind the ancient wonders of the world that represent a third of the Yankee lineup.

Giants casting 'wide net', are interested in Max Scherzer

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The club has reached out to prized free agent Max Scherzer.

With longtime cornerstone Pablo Sandovalmoving on to Boston, the San Francisco Giants are casting a "wide net" in searching for potential additions, per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. The club is looking at a large number of players including free agents Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Chase Headley, Yasmany Tomas (who has since signed with the Diamondbacks), Torii Hunter Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer, as well as trade targets Justin Upton and Jay Bruce.

The Giants are seeking upgrades at both third base and in the outfield, and judging by some of the upper-echelon names they are exploring, they seem quite set on making a splash.

Of course, the most notable tidbit from this report is the Giants' interest in Lester and Scherzer, especially Scherzer who has yet to clearly establish a market other than the Tigers and (possibly) Yankees. The 30-year-old Scherzer would clearly be a major addition for the Giants, who would then arguably have the best one-two punch (along with Madison Bumgarner) in the game. Still, it's unclear just how interested the Giants are in Scherzer and whether they would be willing to pony up the likely $160 million-plus it will take to sign him.

The Giants are also looking at a variety of other "second-tier" pitching options, including possible bounce-back candidate Justin Masterson. They could also explore re-signing Sergio Romo and Jake Peavy.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/27/14

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Yankees pass on Jimmy Rollins trade

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty:The Yankees tried to trade for Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies, but Ruben Amaro's asking price was just too high, and so the Yankees have moved on to other options.

LoHud | Chad Jennings: With Jimmy Rollins seemingly no longer an option for the Yankees, how will they react to a thin infield market?  Will they give Jose Pirela or Rob Refsnyder a shot right out of the gate, or perhaps just let Brendan Ryan be the everyday shortstop this season so they can spend big on Ian Desmond next season?

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty:One betting website, Bovoda, gives the Mets a better chance at winning the World Series next season than the Yankees. Are the Mets taking over New York?

CBS Sports | Jon Heyman: The Yankees are likely only willing to offer Chase Headley a three-year deal, but with the deals Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez just landed, he likely believes he can beat that on the open market.

ESPN | David Schoenfield:The way things stand now, the Yankees might be the worst team in the division.  Luckily, we can almost surely count that the Yankees current roster is a ways from being finished.


Five Reasons I'm Thankful To Be A Cubs Fan

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BCB's Danny Rockett gives thanks to the Cubs and fans everywhere.

The season of thanking is upon us. Now, I might find myself slightly more thankful if I was celebrating Turkey Day in Cancun at an All-Inclusive resort this year, but I'm thankful enough that when I was seven years old, my family moved to Chicago and made me a Cubs fan.

Being a Cubs Fan is a religion, a passion, an obsession, a curse, a duty, a pastime, a diversion, a burden, and a hell of a good time. Baseball fills three seasons of the year with a seven-month soap opera of hot dogs and hope. There are far more than five reasons I'm thankful to be a Cubs fan, but here are my top five on this day of Thanksgiving.

1. Wrigley Field

Picture it. It's an 82-degree sunny Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field at 1:20 p.m. You've just listened to Wayne Messmer sing a soaring rendition of the National Anthem. You sit down in your favorite seat at Wrigley Field with an icy cold beverage and you hear the iconic words "Play Ball!" Are you with me?

I cannot think of a place on earth I'd rather be than right there in that exact moment. I'd give up Thanksgiving in Cancun every year to be at that game right now.

I could go on and on about the rich history of our hallowed neighborhood ballpark. But specifically, I'm thankful for that 1:20 moment at Wrigley. That memory gets me through the long dark off-season.

Perfect Wrigley Field

2. Cubs fans are everywhere

I've written quite a few travelogues for BCB in my "Sordid Travels of a Cubs Fan" series, and the most wonderful thing about going on the road with the Cubbies, is that their fans are everywhere and I've made tons of new friends.

This year I met a guy named Michael Cotton through an impromptu Ivy Envy Podcast meet up in Denver. Not only is Michael a huge Cubs fan, but he's a socially aware military veteran who works tirelessly for an amazing organization called Voices4Peru. Currently he's growing a beard for the Movember donation drive. Heck! Even my cheap arse gave him 10 bucks!

Check out their site if you're in a position to help a fellow Cubs fan help Peruvians lift their society through education, while providing safe havens for the most vulnerable.

Even easier, if you shop on Amazon, use this link and Voices4Peru gets a kickback. It doesn't cost anything.

Michael is a guy who puts his money where his mouth is when it comes to selflessly helping others, and I'm proud to count him among my new friends. And we never would have met had it not been for the Chicago Cubs!

Michael Cotton

3. A Cubs celebration will be the Best Celebration Ever

I lived in NYC for five Yankees World Series championships, and my ex-wife, a native New Yorker, would taunt me by saying "You're never gonna do your victory dance!" I disagreed. Cubs fans will do a victory dance someday, and when we do, we'll shake the damn stars out of the sky with gyrations of jubilation!

New York hooted and hollered out tenement windows and had a parade. But when the Cubs win the World Series, Chicago is going to close down for a month and throw the best party of all time. No one's gonna celebrate like we long suffering fans are gonna celebrate! I'm thankful that I get to have the thrill of a lifetime someday when we win it all!

Cubs Victory Dance
My Cubs Victory Dance

4. The Cubs helped save my life

I won't go into too much personal detail about this, but when my ex would kick me out, I'd always travel to watch the Cubs. The last time she kicked me out, I also lost my recording studio, a lucrative voice over contract, and my dog died. So I did what any die-hard Cubs fan would do, I moved to a mile north of Wrigley Field so I could watch hundreds of Cubs games and be near people who love me.

I was in rough shape a few years ago. So were the Cubs. But now we seem to be on a similar upswing. I will always be thankful to the Cubs for the last three atrocious seasons we suffered together. The daily distraction of a Cubs game, along with support from family and friends has helped through some truly dark days. Here's to a brighter future!

A Brighter Rockett

5. The Cubs remind me of my Dad

My father died 16 years ago, two days before Thanksgiving. He was the man who first brought me to Wrigley Field in 1982. My dad would bribe me with a trip to the Cubs game, so I wouldn't make a fuss about having to go to Saturday morning CCD classes (Catholic Education). I hated giving up part of my Saturday to go to religious school. I would have much rather been out playing baseball with my neighborhood friends. But Dad needed to keep Mom happy, so he bribed us. My sisters and I would suffer through bible stories told through cartoons, and then off to Wrigley we'd go! I saw dozens of Cubs games through parental bribery!

When my three-year-old little sister would get restless in the stands, we'd walk around the concourses and play a game called "Hey Bill!". The rules are simple. You walk around Wrigley and call out to strangers, "Hey Bill!" They usually get a confused look on their face because their name is not Bill, and then you can either say, "Oh! I thought you were my friend Bill!" or just laugh hysterically which is what we usually did. I still play it sometimes with my nieces.

So thanks, dad, for making me a Cubs fan who can find humor in anything. I hear you saying "Hey Bill!" every time I walk into Wrigley. Here's my favorite polaroid of him. I believe I spilled wine on the bottom of it.

Rockett Dad

Those are my five reasons I'm thankful I'm a Cubs fan this Thanksgiving.

What are yours?

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Kenta Maeda

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How well will Kenta Maeda's skills translate to the MLB? And might the Yankees be a fit?

2014 Statistics (in Japan): 187 IP,    2.60 ERA,    22% K%,    5% BB%,

2015 Age: 27

Position:Right-handed starter

The Yankees starting rotation depth chart is looking pretty thin at the moment. The possible departures of Hiroki Kuroda and Brandon McCarthy, along with flimsy health records of Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia leave the team with a real lack of reliable arms to fill out their rotation. As a result, Brian Cashman and co. seem likely to add a starting pitcher or two or three before it's all said and done. Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields headline this year's crop of free agent starters, but there's a much less recognizable name out there that could also be on the market: Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda. The Hiroshima Carp have yet to announce whether or not they will post the 26-year-old this winter, but if they do, Maeda could be a good fit for the Yankees. The Bombers have obviously had recent success in the Japanese pitching market with Masahiro Tanaka, so perhaps they'll be willing to try their luck with this winter's top Japanese export. To be perfectly clear, Maeda isn't Tanaka. Neither his stuff nor his statistical track record from Japan match what Tanaka offered, but that's not to say he can't be a useful mid-rotation starter. Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required) had some encouraging things to say about Maeda's repertoire:

Maeda’s velocity was impressive, ranging from 90-94 mph and hitting 94 four times. In previous outings, he’s thrown anywhere from 87-94 mph, but he didn’t throw a fastball below 90 today and he spotted it well. Maeda pitched mostly off his four-seamer, though he mixed in a handful of two-seam fastballs with a little more armside run, too. His go-to secondary weapon is his 80-84 mph slider, which batters swung through eight of the 33 times he threw the pitch. It’s a slightly-above average offering with tight spin and quick, late break, though he’s prone to hanging the pitch and got away with some mistakes today. Maeda threw an 85-86 mph changeup that flashed average with good tailing action that he used mostly against lefthanded hitters, with 15 of his 16 changeups coming against lefties.

Let's dive into some PITCHf/x data to find some current big leaguers who have similar stuff. A total of eight right-handed pitchers threw at least 100 innings last year and met those pitch selection and velocity criteria. Most of them put up numbers that suggest their true-talent ERA is somewhere in the high 3's.

PitcherK%BB%GB%ERAFIPSIERA
Jason Hammel22%6%40%3.473.923.50
James Shields19%5%45%3.213.593.59
Drew Hutchison23%8%36%4.483.853.59
Ervin Santana22%8%43%3.953.393.63
Jake Odorizzi24%8%30%4.133.753.66
Vance Worley17%5%49%2.853.443.68
Matt Garza19%7%43%3.643.544.02
Rubby De la Rosa17%8%46%4.434.304.21
Average20%7%42%3.773.723.74

Now let's take a look at how Maeda's numbers from Japan might translate to the MLB. In his age 26 season, Maeda pitched to a 2.60 ERA in Japan, which was among the best in the Japan Central League. Maeda struck out 22% of opposing batters, while walking 5%, and allowing just 12 homers over 187 innings. Here's how K%, BB%, and HR% have translated for the nine starting pitchers who have made the transition from Japan since 2007:

MLB K% = Japan K% - 2.2%

MLB BB% = Japan BB% + 3.6%

MLB HR% = Japan K% + 1.2%

Applying these transformations to Maeda's numbers gives us a pitcher who strikes out 19% of opposing hitters, walks 9%, and allows a homer 3% of the time. Here are a few MLB pitchers who came close to meeting those statistical criteria in 2014.

NameK%BB%HR%ERAFIPSIERA
Wade Miley21%9%3%4.343.983.67
Chase Anderson22%8%3%4.014.223.78
Trevor Bauer22%9%2%4.184.013.95
Tim Lincecum20%9%3%4.744.313.95
Roenis Elias21%9%2%3.854.033.96
Jorge De la Rosa18%9%3%4.104.344.05
R.A. Dickey19%8%3%3.714.324.08
David Phelps19%9%3%4.384.414.21
Edwin Jackson19%10%3%6.334.454.25
Hector Santiago20%10%3%3.754.294.38
Travis Wood19%10%3%5.034.384.41
Average20%9%3%4.404.254.06

By both of these analyses, Maeda looks like a steady, mid-rotation starter, who'll put up an ERA around 4.00. While not nearly as exciting as a Scherzer or Lester, an arm like that is still worth two or three WAR over a full season of games, and would fit very nicely in the Yankees starting rotation.

Going after Maeda would also make some economic sense for the Yankees, as they'd eschew the 50% Competitive Balance Tax on a chunk of the cash given to Maeda. By the CBT, the Yankees are required to pay an extra fifty cents on every dollar of payroll over the $189M threshold -- a mark they'll certainly blow past this winter. However, the CBT doesn't apply to posting fees, so any Maeda deal would effectively be taxed at ~42%, while a contract given to a domestic free agent would be taxed at the full 50%.

Plenty of clubs figure to start vying for Maeda's services if his posting starts to look like more of a certainty, especially after seeing Masahiro Tanaka's successful transition to American Baseball. Time will tell if Maeda will be available, and how aggressively the Yankees will pursue this year's high-profile Japanese arm. But the Bombers clearly need some quality rotation pieces, and Maeda fits that bill.

Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent Target: Jung-Ho Kang

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Will the New York Yankees and Jung-Ho Kang make history?

With Derek Jeter officially retired, Brian Cashman and his staff have been left with the daunting task of replacing their iconic shortstop. In an imperfect free agent market for shortstops, it’s possible that the Yankees are looking for a young player with upside, with Hanley Ramirez now headed to the Boston Red Sox and Stephen Drew coming off of a horrific season at the plate.

Jung-Ho Kang is a 27-year old South Korean shortstop with the Nexen Heroes, of the Korean Baseball Organization.  It’s been reported that Kang will be posted by the Heroes using the old posting process that applied to the Japanese baseball leagues prior to 2014. All interested teams will make blind bids, with the highest bid winning an exclusive 30-day negotiating window. In the unlikely event that a contract agreement isn’t in place at the end of 30-days, Kang would remain with the KBO. Ken Rosenthal, of Fox Sports, has reported that he’s not expected to be posted until after the winter meetings in early December.

By any offensive standard, Kang put up MVP caliber numbers at the shortstop position this past season and is now in the prime years of his career. Nicknamed "The Korean A-Rod," the right-handed hitter put up a slash line of .354/.457/.733, to go along with 39 home runs, 115 runs batted in and 36 doubles. That’s quite a remarkable accomplishment for any player, nonetheless a shortstop.  With power numbers on the decline throughout the majors, Kang will be coveted, by teams that believe his skill set will translate to the major leagues. However, those numbers need to be taken with caution as most opinions show that the KBO’s level play falls in the range of High-A talent. There does seem to be mixed reports on how he will play in America, as some scouts see him as a 10+ home run player, while others believe that his pronounce leg kick will be a hindrance on inside fastballs with increased velocity.

On the defensive side of the field, scouting reports are a mixed bag as well. Some believe that Kang will stick at the position, while others think that second or third base are better fits. The skeptics have concern with his range and arm strength when making plays deep in the hole; the believers feel that he can be adequate at the position. To his credit he has won the KBO’s equivalent of the gold glove three times.

History will be made when Jung-Ho Kang signs a major league contract, as no other hitter has gone from the KBO to Major League Baseball. In fact only Hyun-jin Ryu of the Los Angeles Dodgers has ever joined Major League Baseball, via the KBO. Time will tell whether or not the Yankees talent evaluators believe that Kang can be successful here in the states. If they have interest, it bears keeping in mind that they had scouted Masahiro Tanaka for seven years before signing him last offseason, so they without question do their due diligence. One thing is for sure--whoever succeeds Derek Jeter has huge shoes to fill.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/28/2014

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New York Post | Joel Sherman: Regardless of what happens with Chase Headley, the Yankees need their big contracts from 2014 to rebound in order for 2015 to be a success.

YES Network | Lou DiPietro: The Yankees could lose Mark Montgomery, Kyle Roller, Rob Segedin, and Ben Gamel in the Rule 5 Draft this year

New York Daily News | Mark Feinsand: The Yankees need to stop waiting around and just re-sign David Robertson so they have one less thing to worry about.

Portland Press Herald | Kavitha Davidson: The Red Sox say that they and the Yankees operate differently, but signing Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval was taking a page out of New York's playbook.

Yankees rumors: Cuban right-hander Yoan Lopez drawing interest from four teams

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Not that Yoan, another Yoan.

Cuban right-handed pitcher Yoan Lopez held a showcase for MLB teams earlier this month, and the Yankees were among the teams showing strong interest in the 21-year-old, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Lopez will be holding another showcase in the Dominican Republic next week. Although he has already been declared a free agent by MLB, Lopez is still waiting on clearance from the Department of Treasury before he is permitted to sign with a team.

Lopez has pitched for Isla de la Juventud in Cuba for three years prior to attempting to make the switch to MLB. He's 6'4" and weighs 190 pounds, sporting a cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball to go with an overwhelming fastball that has been clocked at 100 mph three times during his workouts. The Rays, Red Sox, and Angels are said to be the other interested teams, in addition to the Yankees. With the Yankees having already shattered their international spending allotments they might be willing to be the most aggressive for Lopez, seeing as they are already going to be penalized for their spending spree. Teams that have not already gone past their pool money might not want to be penalized for signing Lopez.

Ben Badler of Baseball America considers the Yankees to be one of the favorites, with the San Francisco Giants, for Yoan Moncada. It's nice to see that the Yankees are interesting in going all out for international talent this season after already signing ten of the top 30 international prospects to deals earlier this season.

Do you think the team should attempt to make a clean sweep of Yoans this offseason?

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