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Yankees sign Chase Headley to a four-year, $52 million contract

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The dance between the two parties appears to finally be at a close, and we will see Chase back at the hot corner in 2015.

Well, it's taken a little longer than some might have expected for this to happen, but here we go. The Yankees have re-signed third baseman Chase Headley to a four-year contract. The exact dollar amount is not known at this time, but Jon Heyman reported that it would be at least $50 million. (Update: $52 million.) The Yankees now have their third baseman for the foreseeable future, and filling that spot is crucial, as the hot corner is far from an easy position to handle. If Headley had not returned, that would have stuck Martin Prado at third base and likely forced the Yankees to try either Rob Refsnyder, who is not ready defensively, or Jose Pirela, who is likely just a utility man at best, at second base. (No, the twice-surgically repaired hips of Alex Rodriguez were not going to make for an acceptable third baseman.) Not having insurance at third base has really crushed the Yankees over the past two years, and Headley nicely fixes that problem.

Here were the original reports:

So there you go! Chase Headley will be a Yankee in 2015, and although it might seem high to some fans, four years and $50 million for a high quality defensive third baseman who hits around league average is not bad at all, especially considering the Red Sox paid almost double that for Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, each. We'll be sure to have more on the Headley signing throughout the day.

Welcome back, Headley! You got your payday.

Headley winner

Headley laugh


Yankees re-sign Chase Headley to a four-year, $52 million contract

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We will see Chase back at the hot corner in 2015!

Well, it's taken a little longer than some might have expected for this to happen, but here we go. The Yankees have re-signed third baseman Chase Headley to a four-year contract. The exact dollar amount is not known at this time, but Jon Heyman reported that it would be at least $50 million. (Update: $52 million.) The Yankees now have their third baseman for the foreseeable future, and filling that spot is crucial, as the hot corner is far from an easy position to handle. If Headley had not returned, that would have stuck Martin Prado at third base and likely forced the Yankees to try either Robert Refsnyder, who is not ready defensively, or Jose Pirela, who is likely just a utility man at best, at second base. (No, the twice-surgically repaired hips of Alex Rodriguez were not going to make for an acceptable third baseman.) Not having insurance at third base has really crushed the Yankees over the past two years, and Headley nicely fixes that problem.

Here were the original reports:

So there you go! Chase Headley will be a Yankee in 2015, and although it might seem high to some fans, four years and $50 million for a high quality defensive third baseman who hits around league average is not bad at all, especially considering the Red Sox paid almost double that for Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, each. We'll be sure to have more on the Headley signing throughout the day.

Welcome back, Headley! You got your payday.

Yankees sign Chase Headley and get a bargain

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The four-year, $52 million contract for Headley might seem like much, but it's a really good deal.

I have been screaming from the mountaintops that the Yankees should absolutely re-sign Chase Headley. We have seen a Yankees infield that was absolutely in shambles for the past couple of years--just absolutely dreadful. And for the first time since 2012, this is one that you can actually squint your eyes and say that it's pretty solid.

I'm an unabashed fan of Headley. After trading Rafael De Paula and Yangervis Solarte for the third baseman at the trade deadline, Headley hit an incredibly competent .262/.371/.398 (121 wRC+) while providing stellar defense over the course of 58 games. And if you believe in his defensive metrics, then he was one of the most valuable third baseman over the second half of last year.

There are obvious concerns, of course. Headley is going into his age-31 season with a defense-first profile, and we know that defense can peak early. If he doesn't hit and his defense falls off, it could be problematic. But even if it does, this deal isn't large enough for it to go very poorly. There's still the chance he hits poorly but still provides a lot of defensive value, so the floor of his performance is decently high. Additionally, as many of us saw in 2012, there are times where he can show flashes of an elite offensive player.

Jon Heyman has just reported that the deal will be four years and $52 million, and that is an incredibly good deal. Nick Markakis got four years and $44 million as an older, inferior player, and the Braves were well aware that he would get surgery on a bulging disk in his neck. Pablo Sandoval just got five years and $95 million, and while Sandoval is certainly younger, here is how he and Headley have compared since 2009:

Even if we're inclined to regress Headley's defensive numbers, I would not go as far to say that he is worth half of Sandoval. I don't necessarily think that Sandoval's or Markakis' contracts, for example, are poor deals, it's just that in a free agent class and run environment where decent bats and position players are so heavily valued, it's unbelievable to think that Headley would get such a deal.

There were rumblings that a team offered Headley $65 million, and I guess we can say that that's bunk now. Considering the inflation we have seen in the market these days, $13 million a year for a solid, everyday third baseman is beyond reasonable.

Yankees, Chase Headley agree to 4-year, $52 million deal

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The third baseman returns to the Yankees after considering the Giants and other teams.

The Yankees are in agreement on a four-year, $52 million contract to bring back third baseman Chase Headley, as reported by Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The deal was first reported as close by Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com

Headley, 30, also drew interest from the Giants and Marlins this offseason, but returns to the Yankees, with whom he spent the last two and a half months of last season after being traded to New York before the trade deadline. He will provide long-term stability for the Yankees, who will try to use Alex Rodriguez as more of a designated hitter next season with Martin Prado serving as a backup.

Headley is the third major addition for the Yankees this winter, joining left-hander Andrew Miller, who signed a four-year, $36 million deal at the beginning of the month, and trade acquisition Didi Gregorius. Headley hit .262/.371/.398 with six home runs and 17 RBI in 58 games for the Bombers after the trade, and was thought to be atop the Yankees' priority list as they headed into the offseason.

In eight major league seasons with the Padres (2007-2014) and Yankees (2014), Headley is a lifetime .265/.347/.409 hitter with 93 home runs and 418 RBI. The best season of his career came in 2012, when a monster campaign led to a .286/.376/.498 line with 31 home runs and 115 RBI.

Yankees, Chase Headley agree to a four-year, $52 million deal

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The third baseman will remain in New York.

The Yankees have successfully retained third baseman Chase Headley after trading for him midway through the 2014 season. The two sides agreed to a four-year, $52 million deal today, pending a physical.

Before coming over to the Big Apple, the 30-year-old Headley spent eight seasons with the Padres, hitting a combined .266/.346/.410. The highlight of his San Diego career came in 2012, an MVP-caliber season in which he hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs, taking home a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove in the process. He has since struggled to live up to his breakout 2012 campaign, only managing an OPS south of .700 in the intervening seasons.

Headley showed some signs of life with New York, as a much more hitter-friendly ballpark helped him to a .262/.371/.398 line and six home runs in 224 plate appearances. These numbers are still nowhere near his MVP campaign, but much more in line with Headley's career figures. This was enough to convince Yankees GM Brian Cashman to pull the trigger and solidify the Yankees' hot corner with this signing.

Yankees sign Chase Headley: What does this mean for the roster?

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The Yankees have made their move for Chase Headley, finally signing the third baseman to a four-year, ~$50 million deal. Not only does it fill the team's need at third base, but it actually offsets the entire roster and makes it a much stronger unit as players shift to new roles in the wake of the signing. Chase Headley doesn't just affect third base, but also most of the infield and even some of the outfield as well.

By bringing Headley back to man third base, it means that Martin Prado doesn't have to. Prado's value is in his versatility, so instead of needing to use him at the hot corner and finding someone else to play second base, they can just make Prado the second baseman to start the season. While fans of Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela will be disappointed, you have to understand that the Yankees were not going to start the year with either of them as the only options at second. You might say the Yankees don't give young players a chance, but it's really just that they don't take chances like that. There's a good chance Refsnyder could be bad, so by making Prado the second baseman, they don't have to take a chance in Refsnyder. The move simultaneously secures a mature double-play partner for Didi Gregorius and ensures at least league-average defense at second without having to Refsnyder's defense right out of the gate.

This doesn't even shut the door on Refsnyder, though. There is still one more roster spot that Refsnyder and Pirela will compete over in spring training. If he continues to rake in Triple-A, the Yankees can always promote Refsnyder at some point and move Prado to right field. By that time it's likely that one of Carlos Beltran or Alex Rodriguez will be hurt and the Yankees will either have, or can make, an opening.

As for A-Rod, he is no longer even the backup third baseman at this point. The Yankees were never going to let him start the season at third, but now with Headley in there, Prado has become the real backup. A-Rod will likely be the DH on Opening Day, a duty he will share with Beltran and the other veterans. He will also likely serve as the backup first baseman and maybe occasional third baseman. The former All-Star, MVP superstar will now be the highest paid utility player in baseball.

At the end of the day, this move improves the infield significantly over last year's edition. Having Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius, Martin Prado, and Mark Teixeira is much better than the Kelly Johnson, Derek Jeter, Brian Roberts, Tex garbage infield they went with last season. Prado even doubles as another backup outfielder, possibly even pushing Chris Young to fifth outfielder status. This is how far-reaching the Headley signing is, though it's mostly thanks to Martin Prado.

PSA Comments of the Day 12/15/14: The birth of the new cost-conscious Yankees?

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Okay, let's not go crazy here. The Yankees are still big spenders. Brian Cashman thinking that Max Scherzer might be too expensive for them definitely raises some eyebrows though. Pitchers and catchers report in 66 days.

In Tanya's most recent Yankees rumors post, we see that Brian Cashman thinks that former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer may be, to coin a phrase from poker, too rich for the Yankees blood. To hear a Yankees GM say this certainly raises some eyebrows, as well as questions about what the Yankees have planned for the 2015 starting rotation. The cost of Scherzer has been a hot topic among Yankee fans recently. Some think the Yankees should break open the money bin and sign him, while others are cautious about going all in for a seven year deal for a starter when the Yankees' offense is still a concern. Could we actually be seeing the birth of a new cost-conscious Yankees? Perhaps cost-conscious is a strong term, considering last year's spending spree. The Yankees of old would definitely be all in on Mad Max though.

Comments of the Day

The Yankees still need to work on this whole "playing bad players when prospects with an upside are available" thing.

No seriously, something has to give eventually. It was bad enough watching Chris Stewart get actual playing time over John Ryan Murphy in 2013. Last year was little to no exception with the likes of Stephen Drew and Chris Capuano.

Meanwhile, in the Amaerican Football world, Johnny Manziel (who I might call Johnny Manzier due to Seinfeld) did not have the best of days yesterday.

GIF of the Day

Baccari Rambo is the name of a player on the Bills. He intercepted two passes by Aaron Rodgers. Therefore, this GIF wins because all the Bills really have is their defense.

Honorable Mod Mention

Oh, I definitely win the HMM award today. No doubt about it! Today is definitely Greg Kirkland's day!

Fun Questions
  • Max Scherzer: Too expensive or Too expensive but it doesn't matter because the Yankees need him?
  • On a scale of 1-10 (10 being the highest) how would you rate your gift/present wrapping skills?
Song of the Day

The Touch by Stan Bush

As always, please link us your Song of the Day.

Be honest, does it kinda weird you out to hear Cashman say that a player is too expensive for the Yankees? Or do you feel like a kid opening a long awaited present because the Yankees might be on the same wavelength as you? Feel free to use this as your open thread for the day. There will be cake and booze and football later on tonight.

It's a party!

The 3 things the Yankees are counting on after the Chase Headley deal

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The Yankees retained their talented third baseman because they think they can still contend. Here is what needs to happen now.

The Yankees signing a player for many years, many millions is not surprising. As a headline, "Yankees spend money in effort to get better" is spiritually related to "Report: People don't like spiders." The Yankees know that Alex Rodriguez is an ex-third baseman now, and that if they didn't re-sign Chase Headley, they might be forced to rely on a dangerous shuffle of minor leaguers in the lineup. So they spent the money. The team is probably better than it would have been if they kept the money.

Is it enough, though? The Yankees finished just six games over .500, after all, and that's ignoring that they were outscored by 31 runs on the season. Their offseason moves so far have been A) to bring back their third baseman, B) to welcome back their disgraced old third baseman and make him a DH, C) spend a record-setting amount on a setup man, and D) to replace a shortstop who couldn't field with a shortstop who can't hit. It's not like there's an easy way to find fault with any of those moves, but they aren't exactly pushing the Vegas line. The current lineup, via Roster Resource:

  1. Brett Gardner - LF
  2. Martin Prado - 2B
  3. Jacoby Ellsbury - CF
  4. Brian McCann - C
  5. Carlos Beltran - RF
  6. Mark Teixeira - 1B
  7. Chase Headley - 3B
  8. Alex Rodriguez - DH
  9. Didi Gregorius - SS

And the rotation:

Every one of the first eight players in that lineup has had a four-win season or better since 2010. I'll let you guess which way almost all of them are trending, though. Gregorius is the only one under 30, and he's the only one whose career trajectory might possibly be pointing upward. The rotation features three injury concerns at the top and two younger pitchers who probably wouldn't have a guaranteed spot in 25 of the rotations around baseball.

This is a compelling high-wire act, so we'll need to figure out all of the things that need to go right for the Yankees to contend next year:

Health

Let's take that same list, but add in the DL days last year:

  1. Brett Gardner - 0
  2. Martin Prado - 13
  3. Jacoby Ellsbury - 0
  4. Brian McCann - 6
  5. Carlos Beltran - 29
  6. Mark Teixeira - 14
  7. Chase Headley - 14
  8. Alex Rodriguez - 0!
  9. Didi Gregorius - 6
  • Masahiro Tanaka - 65
  • CC Sabathia - 127
  • Michael Pineda - 87
  • David Phelps - 34
  • Bryan Mitchell - 21

The first batch isn't too unusual, especially considering the ages of the players, but it gets a little more worrisome if you add in the DL time from 2013, too. Some of those folks -- Rodriguez, Teixeira, Ellsbury -- have suffered significant injuries in the past few years.

Those pitchers, though. Even the younger backup plans missed a month. and each of the principals missed at least two months. With Tanaka opting for rest/rehab over surgery, he gets to come back for the start of 2015. The Yankees aren't dealing with that Red Sox problem of too many No. 5 or No. 6 pitchers, none of whom are really good enough yet to separate themselves from their competition. No, the Yankees have a couple of those types, and they're already in the rotation.

If the Yankees are going to do anything next year, they'll need some permutation of Sabathia, Tanaka, and Pineda to stay healthy and effective. Just two of the three will do, considering the next thing the Yankees need to do is ...

Signing or trading for another starting pitcher

The Yankees know this. It's probably why they're going to go bananas with Max Scherzer. They were sniffing around Jon Lester, and they're likely going to do the same with James Shields. They let Brandon McCarthy slip away, and the mid-rotation options are looking less and less appealing by the hour, but they'll still get someone. Knowing Brian Cashman, it will be someone good, too. The only question is if the Yankees will have to thin the farm to do it.

This part is almost certain, though. It's not like the Yankees don't know the precarious nature of their pitching staff, as if an assistant to an assistant GM tried to mention that every important starting pitcher was seriously injured last year, but was shouted down. They know. They'll do their best to prepare for the storm.

If you want to know how much the Yankees like Didi Gregorius, consider that they dealt some of their precious starting pitching depth to get him. That's the good news.

Contributions from the newly bad, formerly great

The Yankees starting lineup has combined for 33 All-Star appearances. When you consider that Gregorius was a rookie last year and that Headley has never made an All-Star Game, that's even more impressive. The more important question, though, is how many they'll combine for in the future. I'd set the over/under at two and think really hard about taking the under.

Or to put it another way, if the Yankees decided it was time to rebuild and traded every single starting position player, what sort of prospect haul would they get back? Even assuming they would eat scores, if not hundreds, of millions to trade all of those contracts, I'm not sure they could trade those nine players and get the kind of return that could have been turned around and forced the A's to trade Josh Donaldson to the Yankees instead. Gardner's a delight, and Ellsbury still has value, especially if the Yankees contributed money on his behalf, but most of the rest are aging, declining and expensive.

What needs to happen is that a couple of them get better. It sounds simple. It sounds like the hardest thing in the world. Carlos Beltran hitting again? That guy used to be awesome. I remember him hitting well just a few months ago. And then you look at the stats, the age, the video. Now you're not so sure. Now you're extremely pessimistic. Same goes with Teixeira, Rodriguez, McCann, and even Headley in a way. They would all be so much better if they could order a box of back-then from Amazon and have it shipped to right now.

It's not that far-fetched. It's not like these were all good players who fell off. Most of them were great players, and they could still have some latent greatness buried in there. A couple, if not more, of them actually need to produce, though.

Cashman might have the benefit being the GM for one of baseball's richest teams, but that just makes him underrated as a resourceful GM, who always seems to cobble something nice from uninspiring materials. He has a lot to do before the next season starts. Headley was something of a necessity. If he's not better this coming season, though, it's hard to see how the Yankees climb back into the AL East race without a lot of luck and/or help.


Yankees sign Chase Headley: Twitter reaction roundup

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The Yankees signed Chase Headley to a four-year deal Monday morning, keeping the third baseman they acquired from the Padres this past summer in pinstripes for the foreseeable future. In a stunning development, most of the internet seemed to think the Yankees got a pretty good deal! Here's how Twitter reacted to the news of Headley's return.

Guess we're starting with the one negative thing I could find. Get it out of the way early and stuff.

Refsnyder > Pirela. Hopefully the Yankees think so too. They do need pitching, though. You have to give up something to get something. Ugh. I need a prospect to come up and do well for my own personal happiness. It was supposed to be Refsnyder.

Now, onto the celebration.

One who doesn't have hips that are being consumed by moths, even! Pretty hilarious how the left side of the infield went from hilariously bad joke to pretty darn respectable in basically two weeks.

Yes to Scherzer, please. I don't want Colby Rasmus on my team, but maybe the Yankees' policy on regular showers and personal grooming would help a little? No, probably not.

Oh boy.

You get a four-year deal, and you get a four-year deal, and you get a four-year deal, and you get a four-year deal!

This is probably my favorite thing about bringing Headley back.

Also one is going to have nearly unlimited access to clam chowder and Dunkin Donuts. So there's that.

People who aren't Yankees fans...praising something the Yankees did. I don't know what to make of this. This is weird.

More of that!

And now for the most glorious idea to have come out of the Headley signing:

This. would. be. glorious!

Yankees sign Chase Headley: Do you approve of the four-year contract?

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Four years is a long commitment for a player with Headley's injury history, so is it the right move for the Yankees?

Andrew already has the basics of the four-year, $52M deal. This means Chase Headley will be a Yankee in 2015 (and 2016, 2017, and 2018 too).

That's a commitment only one year shorter than Pablo Sandoval earned, and Sandoval is only going to earn an extra $6M per year. When you're dealing with a payroll in the $200M range, that's a difference of only about three percent. Is Headley (three years older than Sandoval, and with a history of back trouble) really a better investment at $13M than Sandoval at $19M?

Most observers have agreed that the Yankees needed an infielder. That makes prospect Rob Refsnyder an insurance plan rather than a certainty, and if he plays as well in 2015 as he did in 2014, then he has the opportunity to force his way onto the roster. That's always a nice problem to have.

The downside is that the Yankees lose some flexibility in the DH spot. If Alex Rodriguez can play in 2015 (I think he can and will, even if it's at a Jeterian 2014 level), that means that there's fewer DH at bats for Carlos Beltran. If everything goes right for the Yankees, A-Rod might play once a week at first or third, to give Tex and Chase their days off, but it means no "half days" for Beltran. Either Beltran has to hit well enough to put A-Rod on the bench, or Beltran has to sit.

The other real downside is that the Yankees have once again invested heavily in a player who is already in decline. Headley's last three seasons of wRC+ have been 145, 114, 103. That's the part I think most Yankee fans forgot watching Headley play in his partial season with the Yanks: Headley was below average offensively for the majority of 2014. He might have found a new focus playing meaningful games with the Yankees, and Yankee Stadium's short porch may have provided him with the elixir of youth. Or maybe, he had a great couple of months with the Yankees, just like Alfonso Soriano did at the end of 2013, just like Vernon Wells did at the beginning of 2013, just like Mark Teixeira did at the start of 2014.

Obviously, Headley brings value on the defensive side of the ball that Soriano could not, but if the Soriano comparison is the best one, then the Yankees are investing a lot of money just to be a mediocre ball club. Mediocre ball clubs can win the World Series- just ask the Giants. But they require a lot of investment without a lot of certainty, and Yankee fans have gotten used to buy certainty from the free agent market.

What do you think? Rate the deal in the poll below and tell me what you think in the comments.

Poll
Grade the Yankees' deal for Chase Headley

  813 votes |Results

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 12/16/2014

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Chase Headley discusses his decision to return to NY and how he expects to get along with A-Rod; Will Headley block Refsnyder?; Predicting the 2015 lineup.

ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews: Newly-signed third baseman Chase Headley discusses his decision to return to New York and how he expects to get along with Alex Rodriguez.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: Does the Headley signing block Rob Refsnyder from moving up?

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: Predicting what the 2015 lineup will look like now that Headley will be a part of it.

New York Post | Ken Davidoff: Looking at the Yankees' free agency moves since Brian Cashman took over control of baseball operations in 2005.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: The Yankees signed three minor leaguers to deals on Monday, including Jose Campos, Cole Figueroa and Juan Graterol.

Dodgers gamble on health to fill out rotation

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Will Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson fortify the back of Los Angeles' rotation?

After a lack of pitching depth doomed them in October, the Los Angeles Dodgers have spent big on the back of their rotation this offseason.

Sure, the likes of Brett Anderson (one year, $10M) and Brandon McCarthy (four years, $48M) don't have the same appeal as Jon Lester or Cole Hamels. However, they do provide the Dodgers with added insurance on the pitching front. A lack of any reliable performer behind Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu ultimately cost the team in the playoffs, after all. If healthy, Anderson and McCarthy will be upgrades over Dan Haren and Roberto Hernandez, who the Dodgers were forced to depend on down the stretch last season.

The same can be said of the club's bullpen, which should be improved thanks to the unheralded arrivals of Joel Peralta and Juan Nicasio. At the very least, Peralta and Nicasio will help ensure that a fatigued Kershaw isn't hung out to dry again next October.

That Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi have gone about their first offseason in charge of the Dodgers by making a number of shrewd, smaller moves rather than any one big splash is indicative of why they were hired. Both have experience keeping small-market teams afloat through efficient spending, and both plan on bringing these experiences to bear within an organization that might just be the richest in MLB.

Signings like Anderson's demonstrate the type of upside the Dodgers can take a risk on without it much affecting their bottom line. The 26-year-old Anderson is unlikely to remain healthy for all of 2015 -- he hasn't thrown 100 innings in a single season since 2010. Even so, spending $10 million on a one-year deal is of little cost to a team as rich as L.A., and there is a chance he finally finds a way to stay on the field.

Anderson is still effective when he does pitch. In 43⅓ innings for the Rockies last season, the left-hander finished with a 2.91 ERA and 2.99 FIP, striking out 29 batters and walking 13. Over the past four years, Anderson posted a 3.97 ERA and 3.52 FIP in just over 200 innings pitched.

McCarthy, too, brings better upside and pedigree than the likes of Haren or Hernandez. One can argue that guaranteeing four years to a pitcher with McCarthy's injury history is foolish, but he showed just how well he can pitch when healthy with the Yankees during the final months of the season.

Although he struggled to begin the year in Arizona, McCarthy turned it on in pinstripes, showing off more velocity and strikeout ability than he had in years past. For someone of McCarthy's talent, $12 million annually could prove to be a steal, especially since the right-hander will gain the added benefit of pitching in Dodger Stadium rather than the hitter-friendly environments in Arizona and the Bronx.

What these signings mean is that the Dodgers likely won't be pairing Kershaw and Greinke with another top-of-the-rotation arm, but rather with depth and under-appreciated pitchers like McCarthy. Choosing not to pursue someone like Hamels also allows Los Angeles to hang onto its top prospects, many of whom (most notably, Joc Pederson) are close to helping the major league squad.

How the club fares in 2015 will likely depend on how healthy and effective McCarthy and Anderson are. If injuries leave the rotation vulnerable yet again, Los Angeles might find itself in a similar position to last year. But if these pitchers can stay healthy, the team's starting staff will be one of baseball's best, justifying the risks Friedman and Zaidi took in signing them.

Yes, the Dodgers remain financial heavyweights. But with Kershaw, Greinke, Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez, they are a team that already has star talent. Filling in the missing pieces and the bottom part of the roster has been the harder part, and with McCarthy and Anderson signed Los Angeles is one step closer to achieving that goal.

Plate discipline will be key for Didi Gregorius in 2015

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Didi Gregorius's plate discipline took a step back in 2014. What went wrong? And what does it mean for the future?

In the days leading up to the winter meetings, the Yankees swung a trade for shortstop Didi Gregorius, who will be tasked with the tall order of replacing Derek Jeter as the team's starting shortstop in 2015. Still two months shy of his 25th birthday, and with five years of team control remaining, the Yankees hope they've found someone who'll be a fixture in their lineup for years to come.

There's certainly a lot to like about Gregorius. Most consider him to be an above-average defender at an uber-premium position, and he's shown flashes of offensive promise to boot. He hit a respectable .277/.332/.389 in parts of seven minor league seasons, and managed a 92 wRC+ in something resembling to a full season's worth of games in 2013 -- quite an accomplishment coming from someone with his defensive acumen.

But things didn't go as swimmingly for Didi in 2014. Following an atrocious spring training, Gregorius lost out to fellow youngster Chris Owings for the D-Backs' starting shortstop gig, and began the season in Triple-A Reno of the Pacific Coast League. Didi redeemed himself a bit by hitting .310/.389/.447 in two months in the PCL, but fell flat on his face after returning to the big club in June, hitting just .226/.290/.363. We're only talking 299 plate appearances here, so small sample size caveats apply, but there seemed to be something amiss with Didi's offensive game: His plate discipline took a turn for the worse.

Gregorius swung at 34% of pitches outside of the zone in 2014, up from 29% last year, but the biggest red flag has to do with what Didi did -- or didn't do -- with pitches inside of the zone. He swung at just 72% of balls in the zone in 2013, but offered at just 62% last year. Together, these trends caused his Correct% -- the ratio of pitches where he either swung at a strike or didn't swing at a ball -- to drop from 71% to 64%. A swing of 7 percentage points may not seem like a lot, but it's actually kind of a big deal. In fact, as I uncovered in a recent article for TheHardball Times, this was the biggest single-season dip we've ever seen since PITCHf/x started tracking such things in 2008. His Correct% dropped from the 95th percentile in 2013 all the way down to the 15th last season.

NameYearΔ O-swing%Δ Z-swing%Δ Correct%
Didi Gregorius20144.3%-9.5%-6.9%
Kosuke Fukudome20113.8%-7.1%-6.1%
Andy LaRoche20091.6%-8.7%-5.6%
Chris Duncan20094.8%-6.9%-5.4%
Rod Barajas20105.4%-5.2%-5.4%
Dioner Navarro20145.1%-4.9%-5.1%
David Freese20116.2%-3.9%-5.0%
Ramon Hernandez20115.9%-4.0%-4.9%
Joey Votto20105.0%-4.7%-4.9%
Matt Carpenter20130.3%-8.8%-4.8%

Here's a look at his Correct% by month.

Didi3

Let's take a look at some heat maps of his Swing% to figure out exactly what changed for Didi between 2013 and 2014.

HeatMap There's a lot less red in the upper-left quadrant of 2014's heat map, which shows that he grew more passive on pitches in the middle of the zone and also up and away. Overall, this doesn't seem like a change in approach that would behoove Didi. Most hitters generate a lot of power on these types of pitches, and Gregorius is no exception. For his career, he holds a .487 slugging percentage on pitches within the 4x4 square in the upper-left of the strike zone, compared to a .387 SLG outside of it. Every time he lays off one of these pitches, he forgoes an opportunity to drive a hittable pitch, like he did with this homer off of Kevin Quackenbush last August.

DidiHR

You'll also notice that he became a little more swing-happy on pitches well below the zone. This shift was especially stark for pitches more than three inches below the rule book strike zone -- or equivalently, less than 15 inches off the ground. His swing rate on these very-low pitches jumped from 30% (85 of 280) to 37% (88 of 236). This is obviously not a positive sign, as good things rarely come from swinging at pitches that far out of the zone. For his career, Didi has swung at 177 of these pitches, and missed 86 of them -- nearly half. Only nine of those swings resulted in hits.  Here's a look at the most frequent outcome: The swinging strike.

DidiK

Making contact on these pitches is often even less productive...

DidiGDP

It's not easy to pinpoint what caused Didi's plate discipline to take a dive like it did last season, especially since there aren't any obvious changes in the way pitchers went after him. For the locations in question, opposing pitchers didn't seem to alter their plan of attack.

DidiDidi2

So this doesn't really look like its an instance of pitchers capitalizing on weaknesses in Didi's swing. Instead, it appears to be a Didi problem: For whatever reason, he just started making bad decisions at the plate last year. Whatever the cause, these changes don't bode particularly well for Gregorius's future. Changes in Correct% correlate with changes in both strikeout and walk rates, so its probably no coincidence that both trended in the wrong direction for Gregorius last year. Plus, his new-found passivity on balls in the zone has the potential to really hamstring his ability to drive pitches. Although he did a decent job of hitting for power last year, belting 6 homers in what amounted to one third of a season, it would be foolhardy to put too much stock in that total. A hitter's power numbers can be pretty fluky in small samples, and given his 2014 approach, it's hard to envision him keeping up that pace going forward.

Letting certain pitches go by -- even if they're strikes -- isn't always a terrible idea, but offering at pitches that are practically in the dirt sure is. Hardly anything good ever comes from trying to hit these pitches, as they almost always result in either swings-and-misses or weak grounders. If he's unable to lay off pitches well below the knees, Didi's batting average will likely suffer, especially if opposing pitchers start exploiting this weakness.

Unless he makes some adjustments -- or un-learns some of his bad habits -- it's hard to envision Gregorius being much more than an all-glove shortstop. He's an excellent defender by all accounts, so he could still be of value even if he can only muster something like a .240/.300/.350 line. But whether or not he's good player or merely an acceptable one will come down to his hitting, and ultimately his plate discipline. Who knows if Didi's 2014 will prove to be a canary in the coal mine or just some weird fluke, but I know I'll be closely monitoring his swing rates come April. Hopefully they're due for some serious positive regression.

Yankees organizational impact of bringing back Chase Headley

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How does re-signing Chase Headley affect the Yankee payroll and roster construction

After letting a couple of their own free agents leave this offseason, the New York Yankees have brought one back. Lets take a look at some of the ways re-signing Chase Headley has impacted the organization.

Financial Impact

At $52 million for the next 4 seasons, Chase Headley has been signed for $13 million a year through the end of the 2018 season. New York's payroll for 2015 was at around $179.5 million for 13 players, the Headley signing pushes that figure to $192.5 million. Including arbitration estimates and minimum salaries to round out the roster, the projected payroll for next season is now up to around $206 million.

Headley can earn up to an extra $1 million in each year, through making an additional $250,000 for reaching each of 475, 500, 525 and 550 plate appearances. This pushes the maximum value of the contract to $56 million if Headley plays a full season in each of the four years.

I may be flogging a dead horse here, but the luxury tax line is firmly in the rear view mirror at this point. It's also unlikely to come into play in the near future, unless the next Collective Bargaining Agreement - due after the 2016 season - completely alters the current financial landscape. With the Headley signing the Yankees have around $97 million guaranteed to just 6 players in 2018.

Roster and Farm Impact

Headley becomes the 38th member of the Yankee 40 man roster, which means Brian Cashman retains the flexibility to add a couple more players without having to start sending Yankees to the waiver wire. As Jason covered yesterday, Headley being brought in as the starting third baseman greatly increasing the flexibility within the roster, largely due to the versatility of Martin Prado.

The below is a projection of the 2015 position player depth chart, assuming a 12-man pitching staff.

Current Projection - 2015 Yankee Position Players
  • Catcher
  • Brian McCann
  • John Ryan Murphy
  • First Base
  • Mark Teixeira
  • Chase Headley
  • Alex Rodriguez
  • Second Base
  • Martin Prado
  • Jose Pirela
  • Third Base
  • Chase Headley
  • Martin Prado
  • Alex Rodriguez
  • Shortstop
  • Didi Gregorius
  • Brendan Ryan
  • Left Field
  • Brett Gardner
  • Martin Prado
  • Chris Young
  • Center Field
  • Jacoby Ellsbury
  • Brett Gardner
  • Right Field
  • Carlos Beltran
  • Martin Prado
  • Chris Young
  • Designated Hitter
  • Alex Rodriguez
  • Carlos Beltran

10 of the 13 position players above carry guaranteed contracts into 2015, with Gregorius locked into being number 11. The 12th spot will be reserved for a backup catcher. With Prado likely to open the season as the regular second baseman, Robert Refsnyder can continue to work on his defense while playing every day in Triple-A with Jose Pirela able to serve in a utility role in the Bronx, taking up the final roster spot. Adding Pirela to the mix effectively puts the Yankees four-deep on the depth chart at first base, third base and both corner outfield spots; impressive depth for a team that hasn't had much positional cover for injuries in recent years.

Refsnyder can still earn a major league callup in 2015. Should any of Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, Chase Headley or indeed Martin Prado miss time next season, the ensuing roster reshuffle could easily open up the every day second base job for Refsnyder to seize. An injury to Brett Gardner or Jacoby Ellsbury could also open up second base for Refsnyder; essentially if he continues to perform well at Scranton a spot with the Yankees will likely become available to him in the upcoming season.


Free Agency Impact

Adding Chase Headley may not necessarily be the final move in free agency for Brian Cashman this offseason. The position player depth is largely rounded out, and the Yankees have significant depth in the bullpen, however New York could certainly use starting pitching. Two of the five rotation spots are currently projected to be filled through internal competition, and all candidates come with question marks.

Considering the spending commitment, both in payroll and in luxury tax, that the Yankees have made with the Andrew Miller and Chase Headley signings, the New York Yankees organization should carry expectations of making the postseason. Without strengthening the pitching staff these expectations will be more of a challenge to realise. This may not necessarily push the Yankees to sign Max Scherzer but Brian Cashman may well choose to bring in another veteran starter.

PSA Comments of the Day 12/16/14: Headley and the Bench!

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Yesterday, the Yankees signed Chase Headley for four years and $52 million dollars. With this move, the Yankees have strengthened both the left side infield defense and their bench for the 2015 season. Exciting times. Pitchers and catchers report in 65 days.

If you read this site, and we hope that you do, you should know by now that the Yankees signed Chase Headley to a four year, $52 million dollar deal. On yesterday's Yankees Hot Stove on the YES Network, Headley said that he had a couple of higher offers that he rejected cause he really wanted to come back to the Yankees. That's definitely the right way to win over the fanbase. Another way would be to continue his superb defense alongside Didi Gregorius. With this signing, the Yankees now have a legit infield and a pretty decent bench. You know, the opposite of 2013 and 2014. What a fantastic present!

Comments of the Day

There's nothing like waking up and starting the day to comments like this. It's always nice to hear that you guys and gals out there appreciate the work we put into this site. Seriously, thank you all! Group hug!

Not gonna lie, the majority of the COTDs from yesterday are about Chase Headley for some reason...

Blanky has the right idea. High fives!

Waffles slightly changes the subject to Martin Prado and Rob Refsnyder potentially being blocked by him.

Agreed. Thank you!

Thanks for the birthday wishes, Waffles. Thanks to everyone else as well.

Apparently I share a birthday with a true celebrity!

Back to Headley and thoughts on the Pablo Sandoval signing from the Red Sox.

Bryan has the right idea. Thumbs up!

More on Headley

A classic PSA discussion about stats!

More discussions about Heddy! (I will never give tired of this pun)

I'll be honest, I'm excited about our infield defense for next year.

GIF of the Day

Darth Mahbles had a Victor sighting yesterday.It's good to see him every once in a while.

A classic GIF from the GIF Sgt. himself!

Honorable Mod Mention

Matt Freedom wins for reminding us that Mark Teixeira is an odd individual.

Fun Questions
  • Now that Prado is no longer confined to third base, which position do you think he backs up first if a player gets injured?
  • Hot Pockets vs. Pop Tarts: Which one wins?
Song of the Day

As always, please link us your Song of the Day.

Well, here we are. Like it or not, the Yankees now have a full time third baseman. Now that they signed Headley, which player would you like to see the Yankees go after next?

Now go do that voodoo that you do so well!


Yankees re-sign Chris Capuano to a one-year, $5 million contract

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Stop the presses! The veteran lefty will return to the Yankees rotation in 2015. I know you're excited, but try to keep it to a dull roar.

Fresh off bringing one member of their 2014 squad back for next year in third baseman Chase Headley, the Yankees have also brought back another player, though he comes with much less fanfare. Chris Capuano, who the Yankees acquired mid-season to bolster their injury-ravaged starting rotation, has re-signed for a one-year, $5 million contract. Capuano was released by the Red Sox on July 1st of this year, and after the Rockies signed him to a minor league deal on July 4th, the Yankees picked him up about three weeks later. Now, he'll be putting the pinstripes back on in 2015, according to the YES Network's Jack Curry:

Curry also noted that it was a move that offered "depth and versatility." That has to be what the Yankees were going for with this move, since the 36-year-old Capuano is certainly not a guy who is going to push them over the top at this point in his career. In 40 games, 12 starts, and 97 1/3 total innings in 2014 split with Boston and New York, Capuano pitched to a mediocre 4.25 ERA and 3.91 FIP, marks that hovered almost exactly around league average (though the ERA was about 10% worse).

It's hard to knock a one-year signing for not much money, so I don't have too many complaints regarding the deal since I don't really think much of the Yankees #4 and #5 starting rotation slots at the moment, and Capuano at least offers an alternative to more David Phelps. However, it's still underwhelming, and I have to hope the Yankees will at least add one serviceable starter to the rotation if they're not going to get Max Scherzer. Capuano is hardly inspiring, and I'm not convinced that his 12 starts indicate he's actually league average. My guess is that this was a move made in case Hiroki Kuroda decides to not return or retire, as I'd certainly prefer Kuroda to Capuano, but if he hasn't made up his mind yet, this at least gives the Yankees another option. They should certainly still try to get Kuroda to return, though.

So, yeah. Get excited for more Capuano tongue in 2015. Woo.

Capuano tongue

Yankees sign Chase Headley: team doesn't take chances with the infield like in 2014

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The Yankees now have their 2015 infield set for Opening Day with a lot fewer questions than in 2014.

The first feeling I had after the news had come down that the Yankees had signed wasn't excitement or joy: it was just a sense of relief. After the disaster that had been the Yankees 2014 infield I was not looking forward to the team resting its hopes on Jose Pirela or Robert Refsnyder at second base while waiting for the inevitable injury to shift Martin Prado away from third. It felt the team was just sort of "winging it" again in 2015, the same way they had hoped the glued together group of Kelly Johnson, Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts would give them reasonable production with minimal commitment in 2014. The short contracts part certainly worked out, but the performance part (less than 1 fWAR combined) was one of the key parts in the Yankees failure to make the playoffs last year. As the front office seemingly sat in stasis during the Winter Meetings, it looked like more uncertainty would plague the infield corps in the coming year.

Some negotiations and a small fortune later, things don't look so bad for 2015. Headley is not an overly flashy solution or the middle of the order bat that this team most needs, but good players with versatility and relative youth certainly fill a need for this aged and injury-prone roster. With Didi Gregorious installed at shortstop and Martin Prado at second base the infield should be improved both offensively and defensively, with only Mark Teixeira remaining as the clear concern going into next season. At least Headley's ability to substitute in at first base should prevent the team from being totally unprepared when Teixeira's bum wrist causes his hand to fall off.

There will be some lamentation that this signing will block either Pirela or Refsnyder from getting an opportunity to play this year, but short of them getting traded this offseason I suspect they'll get opportunities to play. There's still plenty of age and injury history with this roster, so it's important the depth chart go 11-12 players deep with guys that aren't total stiffs. If they come in and are great then I think the Yankees "veteran obsession" will be a more relevant discussion. But obviously having too many good players would be a nice luxury to have to argue about, so here's hoping.

There's still a lot of maneuvering to be done for the Yankees to resemble anything more than a team hanging on the edge of playoff contention, starting with resolving the starting rotation. But I am pleased to see the steps the team has taken in trying to construct an infield that doesn't drag the team down like it did prior to a flurry of trades last year. A couple of wins here or there are what can make the difference for a fringe squad like New York, so loading up with replacement level players again would have been decidedly stupid. Being pleased with an infield of above average competency may seem like a case of lowered expectations, but after 2014's sorry group it's hard not to be.

Have the Yankees improved from where they were in 2014?

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If the current Yankees are no better than they were in August 2014, was that good enough?

All right. I accept your cynicism, your disillusionment, your revulsion. The 2014 Yankees lost the division to the Orioles by 12 games. They were clearly not good enough, and all their moves so far this offseason have hardly left them a better team.

I'll accept this much of your analysis: the Yankees have swapped one elite reliever for another, they've turned a very good backup catcher in a questionable left-handed reliever, they've acquired a potential platoon shortstop by creating a hole in their rotation they'll have to patch out of their already thin minor league system or by investing the significant years and dollars they've been trying to avoid giving a free agent. They've signed a third baseman who's better than they've started the last two years, but who is really just above average.

They're planning to run a team out based on defense and just enough hitting and (we presume) some pitching (though where that is likely to come from is still up for debate). Just like the end of last season.

I disagree with this analysis, but I'm willing to accept it as a worst case scenario. Because the Yankees played just about the same two games over .500 pace that they played the entire season.

Except that they didn't play the same kind of .500 ball after July 31st that they had played before. Before the trade deadline, the Yankees run differential was -30. After the deadline, they were basically neutral.

But I see more to it than just that.

Look:

Run DifferentialBefore July 31After July 31
-11413%1018%
-2109%35%
-366%611%
>-32221%713%
>31413%815%
377%59%
21817%47%
11615%1222%

Do you see what I see?

The Yankees were blown out of games significantly less often (>-3). If I accept the doom and gloom crowd's worst case scenario, then it has to be with the silver lining that this is a team with the potential to significantly outperform.  It could all be noise and small sample size, but I remain an unrepentant optimist.

That's with a rotation of cast offs and spare parts. If the improved defense can help the Yankees' pitchers shave as little as a third of a run per game off their runs allowed, it moves the pitching from league average to one of the best rotations in the league.

Can Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius and Martin Prado help save the Yankees two runs each week beyond what Solarte, Jeter and Brian Roberts managed? The Yankees front office certainly seems to think so. It might not close the entire 12-game gap with the Orioles, but it's a start. And the team certainly has time to improve.

Yankees re-sign Chris Capuano to one-year, $5 million contract

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The lefty returns to the Yankees for his eleventh major league season.

The Yankees have re-signed left-hander Chris Capuano to a one-year, $5 million contract, as first reported by Jack Curry of YES Network.

Capuano, 36, spent the final two months of the season with the Yankees, posting a 2-3 record and 4.25 ERA in twelve starts after being acquired in a trade from the Rockies. The southpaw spent the beginning of his season with the Red Sox, making 28 relief appearances and posting a 4.55 ERA in 31.2 innings.

Capuano will provide protection for the Yankees behind CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and David Phelps, providing the team with additional rotation depth alongside David Phelps and Adam Warren while Ivan Nova rehabs from injury.

In ten major league seasons with six different clubs, Capuano is the owner of a lifetime 76-87 record and 4.28 ERA in 278 appearances (221 starts). He was an All-Star in 2006 with the Brewers, when he was 11-12 with a 4.03 ERA in 34 starts.

Michael Morse, Gavin Floyd sign free-agent deals

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The Marlins and Indians landed relatively low-risk, potentially high-reward free agents on Tuesday.

The Miami Marlins and free-agent outfielder/first baseman Michael Morse agreed to a two-year contract on Tuesday, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.

Morse will receive $16 million plus incentives from the Marlins, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. Miami could platoon the veteran slugger at first base with Garrett Jones, who hits right-handers well but owns a career .197/.239/.335 line against southpaws. Morse finished with a 130 OPS+ for the World Series-champion San Francisco Giants in a bounce-back 2014 campaign and has hit lefties to the tune of a .277/.335/.485 line in parts of 10 big league seasons.

Morse took to Twitter to say farewell to the Giants and their fans:

Indians sign Floyd

The Cleveland Indians and Gavin Floyd have agreed on a one-year deal, according to a team announcement. Floyd will receive $4 million guaranteed with an extra $6 million in potential bonuses, per SB Nation's Chris Cotillo.

Floyd posted a 2.65 ERA in nine starts for the Atlanta Braves before an elbow injury ended his season. The 31-year-old right-hander owns a 4.40 ERA/101 ERA+ in 11 years in the majors.

Rays, Angels swap players

The Tampa Bay Rays traded outfielder Matt Joyce to the Los Angeles Angels for reliever Kevin Jepsenboth teamsannounced Tuesday.

The 30-year-old Joyce owns a 118 OPS+ in seven big league seasons and was an All-Star in 2011. He'll be a free agent after next season.

Jepsen had his best season in 2014, striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings and finishing with a 2.63 ERA. The 30-year-old right-hander has been exactly league average since breaking into the majors with the Angels in 2008.

Capuano re-signs with Yankees

The New York Yankees and veteran starter Chris Capuano agreed to a one-year contract, per a team press release. Capuano will get $5 million, reports YES Network's Jack Curry.

Capuano finished 2014 with a 4.35 ERA/89 ERA+ in 97⅓ innings for the Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The 36-year-old lefty had five quality starts down the stretch for the Yankees after he was acquired from the Colorado Rockies for cash considerations in July.

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