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Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/22/13

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Last Time on Pinstripe Alley


Yankees News

Coming Up Today

  • Yankees Top Moments: Ruth's 60th vs. DiMaggio's 56th @ 9 am
  • Yankees sign infielder Yamaico Navarro @ 11 am
  • Robinson Cano Free Agency: Ian Kinsler-Prince Fielder trade changes the market @ 1 pm
  • Rule 5 Draft: Three Yankees who could be chosen @ 3 pm
  • Yankees Attendance: What the trend in declining attendance means @ 5 pm
  • Free agent retrospective: Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright @ 7 pm

A Mickey Mantle autograph tale

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After obtaining his autograph, I added the date to the piece of paper, folded it, and shoved it into my pocket. What else would you expect from a boy who grew up attaching baseball cards to his bicycle so they would make cool flapping noises as the cards made contact with my spokes?

On August 10, 1981, my best friend, Willie, and I stood in a short line of kids in one of the aisles behind home plate at Rosenblatt Stadium before an Omaha Royals game to get Mickey Mantle's autograph.

As a 14-year-old budding Royals fan, I already hated the Yankees, but somehow I knew that getting Mantle's autograph trumped such hatred. Willie was a Dodgers fan, so he didn't exactly love the Yankees either, but there we were waiting for Mickey Mantle to sign our stuff.

I have no recollection about how I obtained the piece of paper you see above (maybe it was supplied by somebody at the ballpark?), but when it was my turn, I handed it to Mantle and he autographed it. We didn't engage in any small talk, but none was really necessary from my perspective. I added the date to the piece of paper, folded it, and shoved it into my pocket.

As much as I understood that Mantle was bigger than life, my 14-year-old mind didn't comprehend the importance of doing a better job of preserving his autograph. But understand that I came from the era in which kids used clothes pins to attach duplicate baseball cards to the frame of their bicycles so that when we pedaled, the cards made contact with our spokes and made a cool flapping noise. We had no earthly idea that baseball cards had worth which could have been cashed in at some future point.

And now that I think about it, before we realized baseball cards had monetary value, Willie and I would make trades based on how cool the picture on the card looked or simply how much we wanted a certain card. Are you sensing a coolness theme yet? Once price guides entered the equation, it zapped all the fun out collecting for me.

Anyway, for some strange reason, when I got home from Rosenblatt Stadium, I colored in the date on the Mantle autograph. But at least I had the sense to wrap it in plastic and that has preserved it well over the past 32 years.

It's the off season, so it's the perfect time to share your memorabilia stories. I'm particularly interested in hearing stories about what or how you obtained memorabilia at the ballpark as a kid. So share away.

Yankees Top Moments: (#4) DiMaggio's 56th vs. (#5) Ruth's 60th

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Which record-setting feat by a Yankees legend was the most impressive moment?

Pinstripe Alley kicks off our Yankees Top Moments Tournament by going back to the very beginning in the Founding to 1959 bracket. Vote in the poll below for which moment you think deserves to advance to the next round.

(#4) DiMaggio strings together 56

Joe DiMaggio's 56 consecutive games with a hit wasn't ultimately the most impressive feat of the season- during DiMaggio's streak he went 91 for 223, a .408 average- and that same season Ted Williams hit .406 for season. But .400 didn't captivate the nation the way 56 did. Why? DiMaggio brought a nearly unprecedented blend of power, speed and bat control to the plate.

Here's the list of players with more home runs than Joe D.'s 361 and a lower strikeout rate:

For fun, here's the list of players in baseball history with fewer strikeouts and 200 home runs:

DiMaggio set the record on July 2, 1941 with a homer against Boston's Dick Newsome, moving past Willie Keeler's 44-game hitting streak from 1897. He then pushed the streak to 56 two weeks later after the All-Star break by singling off of the Indians' Al Milnar on July 16th in Cleveland. A couple great plays by third baseman Ken Keltner ended the streak the next day, but DiMaggio's amazing feat has stood the test of time.

For records? Ruth's 60 home runs would stand for 34 years. Ty Cobb's hits record stood for 60 years. DiMaggio's hitting streak is 72 years old and as strikeouts rise, seems safer each season. The second longest streak in MLB history aside from Keeler belongs to Pete Rose- at 44 games, Rose was only three-quarters of the way through DiMaggio's 56.

(#5) Ruth clubs his 60th

We could populate an entire blog with Babe Ruth stories, but of all the numbers he put up in his career, what was bigger than #60? He was the biggest star of his era, the engine that drove Murderer's Row. In that 1927 season, at age 32, he broke his own home run record (59, set in 1921) for the fourth time, finishing the job by founding the 60-homer club against the Senators' Tom Zachary on September 29, 1927. It's easy to look down on 60 now, which has been bested seven times since '27. Sixty seems easy to disregard on its own, because it's just 60. But context is important.
Look:
  • in 1927, no American League team hit 60 homers besides the Yankees- who hit 158; 60 from Ruth, 47 from Gehrig, 18 from Lazzeri, and 33 from the rest of the team.
  • before the start of the 1927, there were only 77 players who had ever hit 60 homers in their careers
  • in 1927, Babe Ruth was already the all time home run record holder with 150 HR lead over #2 Cy Williams
  • in 1927, Babe Ruth increased his personal home run total by a staggering 15%

The Yankees won the division by 20 games. They swept the Pirates in the World Series. They dominated baseball, and Babe Ruth dominated the Yankees.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Poll
Which moment deserves to move on to the next round?

  24 votes |Results

Bud Selig, Evil Genius?

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Did he actually make baseball more competitive with the multitude of changes in the past 20 years?

I know the rhetoric for an Indian fan is "Woe is us," as we cannot spend like the Yankees, Red Sox, or even the Tigers. And I do agree with that stance. But the corollary to that theme is that the teams with cash will almost always dominate as they can afford higher salaried players and even afford to miss on a few of those buys as well.

But as we watched the September pennant drive and the multitude of teams that were in the race until the final week, it dawned on me that the AL was very competitive as a whole this year. And when I reviewed the standings at the end of this past season, something jumped out to me. And it was the fact that seemed to be a lot of 90 win teams. So I decided to take a peek to see if this was indeed a trend.

The current divisional setup was created in 1994, when Cleveland joined the AL Central. Sadly that year ended in the strike, so I decided to focus from 1995 on. I know the first question, "But, wasn't 1995 also affected by the strike?" Yes it was, but since the final number of games was very close to a full season, prorating the numbers to a full 162 would not be a terrible idea.

Of course, there have been other changes with the scheduling in the past two decades. This includes interleague play starting in 1997. The reorganizing of the divisions occurred in 1998 when Tampa Bay and Arizona came online to make it a full 30 teams. In 2001, play within divisions was increased to 19 games per division rival, in addition to reduce multiple road trips to non-division teams. And of course, this past season with Houston flipping over to the AL and interleague play now happens all year long.

And with each change that has occurred, there seems to have been a leveling of the playing field. I will use 100 wins as the break off point as a truly dominant team and 90 wins to be an excellent team. From 1995 through 2004, there have been eighteen teams that won 100 games or more. But since 2005, there have only been 4, with the Phillies in 2011 being the last team to accomplish it.

Wins_medium

As you can see the eleven 90+ wins this season matches the high of 2002, but did so with none of the eleven teams with 100 or more wins. Also, from 2008, we have seen a steady rise upwards with 90+ win teams with very few 100 win teams.

But this only looking at the positive side about the ledger. What about the horrid and bad squads for the same timeframe? Well, the 100 loss season doesn't have the same trend as 100 win season. Using the same break as above, there were 11 and 13 100 loss teams respectively, but never more than 2 since 2002. And if Houston actually tried over the past two years, I bet that number would have only been 1 each season.

Losses_medium

There has been a fairly even amount of teams over the past few years with 2013 being the lowest since 2006 and the 90 loss teams in steady decline the past three years. Let's do one more graph, just for kicks.

Net_medium

And here we can see that there has definitely been a trend up in the past few years, with 2013 actually reaching its highest peak of a net +5 teams. So, my initial reaction that 2013 was the most competitive in recent year did turn out to be accurate.

Is this sustainable? Highly doubtful as I think 2013 is most likely is the highest that peak can go. There just aren't enough wins/losses to be spread out much more. Also, this discussion does not by any means sway my opinion that a small market team like the Indians can have count on multiple 90 win seasons back to back to back to back. That is a different discussion entirely.

More from Let's Go Tribe:

Yankees sign infielder Yamaico Navarro

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The Yankees' quest to add infield depth continues with the signing of Yamaico Navarro.

Joel Sherman reports the Yankees have signed Yamaico Navarro to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training.

The 26-year-old Navarro spent last season with the Baltimore Orioles, hitting .286/.333/.357 in just 31 plate appearances. He also spent time down in the Orioles' farm system, hitting .267/.354/.418 in 452 Triple-A plate appearances. Navarro has been in the Majors in four separate seasons, hitting just .206/.258/.267 in 199 PA's with the Red Sox, Royals, Pirates, and the aforementioned Orioles. In his minor league career, Navarro is a career .277/.350/.434 hitter across eight seasons and 2707 PA's with the same four organizations.

Navarro is primarily a shortstop, but has seen time at second base, third, first, and in the corner outfield spots over the course of his career. You can now add Navarro's name to the list of veteran minor league infielders the Yankees have picked up following the signing of Zelous Wheeler and the trade of Dean Anna.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

A Day In Wrigley Field History: October 1, 1932

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This is not only one of the most famous incidents in Cubs history, it's one of the most famous in baseball history. What really happened, though?

You all likely know the basics of the story of Game 1 of the 1932 World Series, where Babe Ruth allegedly "called his shot" off Cubs pitcher Charlie Root.

But did he really? The story has taken on the air of myth or legend over the decades.

Writers of the day, chronicling Game 1 for the Tribune, both concurred that Ruth was simply holding up two fingers, indicating that Root had two strikes on him. Ruth had hit a three-run homer in the first inning off Root, but the Cubs had come back to tie the game, and entering the fifth, it was 4-4. Ruth came up with one out and nobody on base. Edward Burns:

The Cub bench jockeys came out of the dugout to shout at Ruth. And Ruth shouted right back. Root got a strike past Babe, and did those Cub bench jockeys holler and hiss! After a couple of wide ones, Root whizzed another strike past the great man. More hollering and hissing and no small amount of personal abuse.

Ruth held up two fingers, indicating the two strikes in umpire fashion. Then he made a remark about spotting the Cubs those two strikes. Well, it seems that Charley Root threw another good one. Mr. Ruth smacked the ball right on the nose and it traveled ever so fast. You know that big flag pole just to the right of the scoreboard beyond center field? Well that's 436 feet from home plate. Ruth's drive went past that flag pole and hit the box office on the corner of Waveland and Sheffield avenues.

Ruth resumed his oratory the minute he threw down his bat. He bellowed every foot of the way around the bases, accompanying derisive roarings with wild and eloquent gesticulations.

The "bench jockeying" of the day wouldn't be tolerated today, but it was common in that era, players yelling back and forth. Can you imagine a modern home run hitter doing what Ruth did in that report? Also, keep in mind that what Burns described was under the old configuration of Wrigley, before the current bleacher structure, when there was a scoreboard at field level near center field. The flight of that home run today would have taken it, likely, into the center-field bleachers, just below the current scoreboard location.

The Tribune's Irving Vaughn quoted Root and manager Charlie Grimm in his article:

"If I had to do it again, I'd pitch the same way," was the comment of Charley Root, who was in the midst of the batting carnage. 

"You can't guess 'em. You'll fool 'em on one and the next thing you know they've hit the ball over the fence," was declared by Grimm.

"It was a change of pace ball, low outside," said Root. "If it had been a fast ball I wouldn't have been surprised. But he picked out a low curve and sent it on a line to center. That convinced me of the tremendous power he has in his swings."

No mention of called shots. Not one. Just a description of Ruth holding up two fingers indicating two strikes, and Root (note: his name was often spelled "Charley" during his playing days; today, we usually write "Charlie") admitting that Ruth just got all of one of his better pitches.

Several years ago, a home movie taken of this event was found. Here it is; you can judge for yourself.

Looks to me as if the contemporary descriptions were exactly right. Ruth points at the Cubs dugout, as described by Burns, and might have lifted two fingers before he hits the blast past the scoreboard. Called shot? Only embellished by writers over the years. It didn't really happen that way.

Ruth's home run was followed immediately by one from Lou Gehrig, and the Yankees wound up winning the game 7-5 and won Game 4 the next day, sweeping the series.

One more note on Game 3, from Arch Ward in the Tribune:

Hundreds of fans who arrived at Wrigley field after 1:15 o'clock yesterday were unable to get to their seats until after Babe Ruth had knocked his first home run. Consequently they missed one of the big thrills of the game. 

Inadequate entrance facilities forced many to stand in line for 20 minutes. This congestion was greatest at gates 1, 2 and 3. Four turnstiles were in operation at the Sheffield-Addison entrance and 11 at the main entrance.

Several patrons protested that all the gates were not open, but this was denied by President William Veeck of the Cubs.

"We had every turnstile in use," Mr. Veeck explained. "It is impossible to eliminate congestion when thousands attempt to enter at game time. There is no way we can provide more entrances."

I'm not sure where gates 1, 2 and 3 were in 1932; gates at Wrigley now have letters, rather than numbers. 1932 World Series games at Wrigley began at 1:30 (instead of the common regular-season time of 3 p.m.) to avoid darkness. But you can see that the nearly 20-year-old ballpark needed upgrading, even then.

Here's the front and back cover and all the inside pages of the 1932 World Series program from Wrigley. You'll note on the scorecard pages that this is, in fact, a program sold on October 1, 1932 -- whoever bought it wrote in the pitchers from the game (Root, Malone and May for the Cubs; Pipgras and Pennock for the Yankees), but didn't keep score. Too bad; that would have been an awesome souvenir of that memorable day.

1932ws_frontcover_medium

1932ws_backcover_medium

1932ws_spread01_medium

1932ws_spread02_medium

1932ws_spread03_medium

1932ws_spread04_medium

1932ws_spread05_medium

Alex Rodriguez verdict could come in 2014

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This is worst case scenario for the Yankees

After Alex Rodriguez walked out of his own appeal hearing, the proceedings ended and now independent arbitrator Frederic Horowitz will render a verdict based on the evidence A-Rod's team was able to present. Still, it sounds like Rodriguez is confident, declaring "We crushed it. They had nothing.''

Before a verdict can be announced, both sides have until December 11 to file written briefs, or closing arguments, and then have another 10 days after that, so until December 21, to reply to each other. After that, Horowitz will have 25 (or more?) days to announce his decision. Meaning, if he takes the full time, and if he's not allotted more time as has been suggested, a decision might not be announced until around January 15, almost one month before pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

As for the verdict itself, Team A-Rod seems split. While Rodriguez himself seems to think he'll be fine, his lawyer Jordan Siev "can't imagine Alex walks out of there with nothing," though he also believes that "There's no physical evidence at all, just [Anthony] Bosch's testimony. And if you don't believe Bosch, there's no case. Period. End of story.'' Joe Tacopina is already in the process of obtaining an injunction to prevent a suspension from being implemented.

It had been announced that Rodriguez would make their unused evidence public, however that has been stopped. Instead, there will be a press conference next week where they plan to make public materials not entered into evidence for the appeal. This material will still be used as evidence in A-Rod's lawsuit against Major League Baseball and Yankees team doctor Chris Ahmad, though.

If you were hoping there would be a quick ending to this circus, you were dead wrong. Not only will this matter linger on for another two months, but it is sure to include a few curveballs here and there. Who knows what kind of evidence will be brought out next week, it could be nothing or it could be world-changing. All we can do is wait and suffer and not be surprised about anything.

In the end, the Yankees are the ones who lose the most. If a verdict isn't announced until January, and then an injunction is filed and this goes to Federal court, what do the Yankees do at that point? Rodriguez plans to prepare for the season like he is going to play, but would he even be allowed to play if this spills over into the season? Would the Yankees have to pay him if he's not? They need to know what to do because if they continue the offseason like they have Rodriguez at third base, they're going to be disappointed when he's suddenly ineligible to play and everyone is signed. No one needs a verdict faster than the $189 million Yankees, but at some point they're going to have to make a decision to move on.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Cardinals acquire Peter Bourjos for David Freese

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Freese was reportedly considered by the Yankees to fill for the possibly suspended A-Rod at third base, it doesn't look like that will be a possibility anymore.

The biggest news of the day until recently was the Mets signing outfielder Chris Young. The hot stove was flickering. Then, the Cardinals threw some devil magic into the flames and saved defensive ace Peter Bourjos from the horrors of Anaheim in exchange for a player suspected by Ken Rosenthal to be third baseman David Freese (and possibly others):

It has not been confirmed whether or not it is Freese going to the Angels, but the baseball Twitterverse suspects it and both ESPN's Jim Bowden and Yahoo's Tim Brown have reported it. It appear that there will be a prospects exchanged, too.

Earlier in the off-season, Tanya wrote about the Yankees' rumored interest in the 2011 NLCS/World Series MVP, given the likely absence of third baseman Alex Rodriguez for most of 2014:

Bringing in Freese would give the team a solid if unspectacular backup plan in case MLB's arbitrator carries out most or all of Rodriguez's 211-game suspension this offseason. In 138 games for the Cardinals in 2013, Freese batted .262/.340/.381 with nine home runs. His best season at the major league level to date came recently in 2012 when Freese posted a 133 wRC+ with 20 home runs and a .293/.372/.467 batting line with solid defense, but that area of his game was not as great in 2013. The Cardinals' motivation for moving Freese is apparently to open up second base for Kolten Wong by moving Matt Carpenter to third base, according to Feinsand.

Shortly after the rumors emerged regarding the Yankees and Freese, Rosenthal was among the ones to counter that it was unlikely since the Yankees and Cardinals did not really seem to be much of a match as trade partners. Now, those words have come to fruition as it appears that Freese is on his way to the dumpster fire engulfing Mike Trout on the West Coast.

The Yankees will have to make some move to bring in a backup plan at third base in case A-Rod gets suspended as suspected, and though bringing in Freese wouldn't have been a masterstroke, it could have helped. The Yankees must make do with convincing shortstop Jhonny Peralta to change positions, finding another third baseman on the trade market, or gambling on Mark Reynolds at a possible he can't field.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Update

Confirmed.


Rule 5 Draft: Three Yankees who could be chosen

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Will the Yankees miss these three?

The Yankees finalized their roster for the Rule 5 Draft, placing Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, Jose Campos, Bryan Mitchell, Shane Greene, and Dean Anna on the 40-man roster. Several players were left off who are eligible for the draft and at least three of them are very likely to get picked up by another team.

Three relief pitchers by the names of Chase Whitley, Dan Burawa, and Tom Kahnle were left unprotected. While none of them are Earth-shattering omissions, they each could still be useful to the Yankees, but could also potentially break camp with a team looking for some young relievers.

Whitley upped his strikeout rate to 8.25 batters per nine innings and showed overall improvement in his first full season at Triple-A. He had an ERA of 3.06 and a FIP of 3.05, both lower than his career numbers. He could have a shot at breaking camp with the team, so it would have made sense for the Yankees to protect him.

Burawa reached Double-A this season, after missing all of 2012 to injury, and had his best strikeout rate (9.0 K/9), but also worst walk rate (5.73 BB/9). He had his lowest ERA (2.59) by far and a good 3.31 FIP, both better than his career totals. Still, he's 25 and hasn't shown a lot of consistency, so he was left unprotected.

In his first full season at Double-A, Kahnle has shown the potential to be a high-strikeout reliever, striking out 11.10 batters per nine innings this season. His 2.85 ERA and 3.85 FIP marked his second solid year in a row, unfortunately, walking 6.75 batters per nine innings is probably what led to him being left off the roster.

Hopefully the Yankees won't miss any of these guys. Whitley is really the one that could be the most useful, at least out of the gate in 2014. If the Yankees are able to keep him, there's a possibility he could find his way onto the major league roster at some point in the season.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Yankees Attendance: What the trend in declining attendance means

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Why does the organization still appear to be clueless as to the causes?

I've already written a few articles for this site in regards to this subject matter in the past. The last one was back in June, and at that point I thought that the Yankee organization had finally come to grips with their trend in declining attendance. After some fairly delusional attempts at blaming the cause of the declines on things like secondary market pricing from StubHub, the Yankees attempted to get the gate receipts up by adjusting their pricing. They even went as far as to use Groupon to offer heavy discounts on some tickets. I assumed this meant they finally understood the primary cause of their difficulties, but their recent announcement regarding 2014 ticket prices says otherwise.

Site mate, Craig Edwards, penned this piece that sums up the year end attendance figures for the Yankees and league overall. To review quickly, the Yankees attendance was down 7.4% in 2013 and was the third straight year of declining attendance figures. The Yankees still are one of the top draws in the game, but the declines from their peak in 2010 now are significant. The 2010 season was the second year in their new stadium, and just after their last championship, when most teams usually see a pick-up in attendance figures. The average game in 2010 saw 46,491 tickets sold. Last year that figure had dropped to 40,488. That is nearly a 13% decline in per game attendance in just three years.

How important is that declining trend for the Yankees? Most fans and baseball media folk seem to assume that money is almost irrelevant when it comes to the Yankees. The truth is we can't really know what the Yankees total revenue and cost structure looks like. Between the team and their media holdings, I'm simply not going to trust anyone from baseball to give a complete depiction of what the Yankees finances are in a given year. There are too many conduits to hide revenues, or adjust expenses, in order to present whichever view they want.

We can answer one question though, and that has to deal with the actual impact the Yankees are feeling from their declining attendance figures. So we know that in the last three years they have suffered a nearly 13% decline in per game attendance. The actual figure is 6,003 fewer tickets sold per game. From my last article we were able to establish that the average gate receipt for 2012 was $83.28 per ticket. If we stick to that assumption then we can see how much less revenue the Yankees are generating now versus 3 years ago: $40,494,317.

So what does nearly $40.5 million buy these days on the free agent market? Well if Fangraphs' crowd sourced estimate is about right, then you could have Robinson Cano and Shin-Soo Choo for that tidy sum. If Choo isn't your pick, then Cano and Brian McCann could be yours with a little pocket change to boot. Best of all, this analysis assumes that the Yankees ticket declines have been symmetrical across all available ticket options equally.

I'm using the average ticket price, but do you really think those 6,003 fewer tickets being sold are distributed evenly? We'll have to wait for Forbes to give us the Yankees gate receipts next year to see if there's been a steeper decline in average ticket receipts, but anecdotally, when I saw a game this year, it looked a lot thinner in the most expensive seats than in the bleachers.

My assumption would seem to be backed up by the little the Yankees decided to do on pricing for next year. The basics around their 2014 plan are as follows: 1.) 39,000 ticket prices stay the same, 2.) 9,000 tickets will have a decrease, 3.) 2,000 tickets will increase in price. The 18% of tickets that are scheduled to decline are in the following sections: 305, 306, 307, 332B, 333, 334, 313, 314, 326, 327, 210, 299, 216, 217, 223, 224, 230, 116-124, 114A-126. Among the four percent of ticket prices increasing next year are obstructed view Bleacher tickets in sections 201 and 239. So we're seeing declining pricing in a lot of Main and Field level seating, but increasing the cheapest tickets in the ballpark. That looks like pretty good anecdotal evidence that their revenue hit is likely a lot more than that $40.5 million I estimated.

I think at a minimum we've established here that this hurts. Maybe the Yankees do still have plenty of room left in the annual budget to do whatever they want, luxury tax be damned. Still, if they were making that extra coin each year, then I'm sure we'd be hearing a lot less about the $189 million budget target for 2014. Also, none of this analysis even makes any sort of an estimate for concession sales lost from those no-shows. This is really big money the Yankees are missing now.

Last year they blamed the problem on StubHub, but clearly changing the after-market provider didn't alter the dynamics. I can't figure out why they went toward discounted prices to address the issue last year, but didn't carry through with that strategy when they came up with 2014 plans. Could the Yankees really still be delusional about the problem here? If so, then I'm going to give you guys one more quantified argument for why price is the issue.

Attendance Figures

Home Avg.

Road Avg.

Home % Chng

Road % Chng

MLB % Chng

NY Yankees 2013

40,488

33,632

(7.4%)

(1.5%)

(1.1%)

NY Yankees 2012

43,733

34,154

(3.0%)

2.8%

1.9%

Looking at the Yankees percentage change in average road attendance, we can see a discernible difference between the changes for home games. The road game attendances also correlate well with the rate of change in total MLB attendance figures. I think this makes any argument that the decline in attendance figures has to do with the quality of the team on the field, or the star power of the lineup, one backed with limited support.

Generally, teams that saw attendance declines due to poor performance versus the previous year also saw their road attendance figures decline to a greater degree than the league average. The Chicago White Sox saw their team go from playoff contender to dead last in 2013. Their average attendance figures declined by 8.9% at home, and 8.8% on the road.

Another popular argument some might wish to make is the lack of star power in the daily lineup. The Texas Rangers might be the best argument for that in 2013. They lost Josh Hamilton to free agency last offseason and this year their attendance at home fell 9.3% per game. Similar to the Yankees, the Rangers missed the playoffs last year, but were competitive until the very end of the season. The Rangers' average attendance at road games was actually down less than the league average at only 0.3% per game.

So can the Yankees' declines last year be blamed on lack of star power in the lineup? I don't think so. The difference between the Yankees and Rangers is that the recent trend for Texas has been straight up in attendance. In fact, their average game attendance from 2010 is up 25.3%, including last year's figure. That compares to the Yankees' overall decline of 13%. So I don't think the star-power argument holds water.

That can leave only one real answer, and so that Hal Steinbrenner can read it, I'm going to do the proverbial yell: IT'S THE MONEY! There's an old saying that three in a row makes a trend. Yankees, you've got a bad trend in attendance, and it's because you've miscalculated the pricing of your tickets. The fact that your road attendance figures have been following the overall league trend shows that the problem isn't an issue with the product on the field.

The declines in attendance at home are another matter. The demand is not as inelastic as you thought. If you want to maximize your revenue potential, then you should lower your ticket prices. I'm not talking about 5% reductions either. You can see how much tickets are going for in the aftermarket. It likely means that you need to start with 15-25% reductions across the board. If you're still seeing aftermarket prices well below the printed cost, then you're still too high.

I haven't even mentioned how much you are alienating your fan base with your current policy. You'll get more tickets sold this way and those people will buy some more absurdly priced beverage or hot dog. Some dollars are better than empty seats. You might not get all of the $40 million+ you've lost this way, but more would seem better than less if I was running your business. Having Cano and Choo in the lineup would also seem better than other alternatives.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/23/13

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Last Time on Pinstripe Alley


Yankees News

Coming Up Today

  • Jhonny Peralta Free Agency: Mystery team offers him a contract @ 9 am
  • Yankees Free Agent Target: Juan Uribe @ 11 am
  • Yankees GIFs: Special moments from Game 1 of the 2009 World Series @ 1 pm
  • Free agent retrospective: Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright @ 3 pm

Jhonny Peralta Free Agency: Mystery team offers him a contract

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Jhonny Peralta could be the perfect free agent for the Yankees right now. He plays shortstop and third base, has an offensive track record better than Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix, recently returned from a steroid suspension that could harm his market, and won't cost a draft pick. He's going to be looking for a starter, and even though he doesn't exactly have a clear place to play, between Derek Jeter's injury concerns and the uncertainty surrounding Alex Rodriguez, Peralta to the Yankees doesn't sound too farfetched.

As long as the deal is reasonable, that is. The Yankees were said to have contacted him recently in hopes of seeing what kind of contract he's looking for. Now it's being said that Peralta has a four-year, $56 million contract in hand and is already seeking upwards of five years, $75 million. He's been contacted by the Mets, Mariners, and Orioles so far and others are likely to be interested as well, considering the thin market for infielders.

As much as the Yankees need an option at third base and shortstop in case their plans at either base fall through, that sounds like a pretty steep contract for someone with a bat that fluctuates between below and above-average and a glove that has been consistently bad (-16 DRS at SS, -4 DRS at 3B). It just doesn't sound like you'd be getting enough back for a contract that would cost around $14 million a year, and he's still looking for more.

It obviously could just be a play to drive up costs, but still, Peralta is a player I would sign to a three-year deal, at most. Unfortunately, the alternatives out there aren't going to help make that into a reality. If this deal is from the Yankees, I suppose you can bite the bullet and at least appreciate what he'll bring to the table over Nunez, Nix or Brendan Ryan. He would essentially be the future replacement for Jeter. The Yankees might have to overpay him if they want him to accept a job that could already be filled. That might not be the best way to go about this, so let's hope this deal is from someone else.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Yankees Free Agent Target: Juan Uribe

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With Alex Rodriguez's 2014 status still up in the air, could Juan Uribe be just the utility infielder the Yankees desperately need?

As a protracted battle in federal court appears inevitable in the seemingly infinite battle between Alex Rodriguez and Major League Baseball, it is becoming increasingly unclear if A-Rod will be able to play on Opening Day 2014. Even if he can, and even if Derek Jeter is healthy and Robinson Cano stays in the Bronx, the Yankees need a utility infielder that can fill in when injuries strike (and, if there's anything we learned about 2013, it's that injuries will strike). If this infielder can hit, well, that would certainly be welcome, especially after a season spent watching the likes of Jayson Nix and David Adams struggle in the middle of the Yankee lineup.

Juan Uribe might just fit all of New York's needs.

Uribe has been a good defender throughout his career, posting above-average defensive numbers every year he's been in the big leagues (according to FanGraphs' "Fielding and Positional Adjustment combined" stat). He was especially good last year, leading the league in UZR/150, and his skill is magnified by his ability to play multiple positions. Uribe has spent significant time at second base, third base, and shortstop throughout his career, although he's mainly played third in the last few seasons. This versatility would prove invaluable, as he could fill for any number of injuries that might occur in the infield. His experience at third would also make him a viable option to start the season there if Alex Rodriguez cannot play on Opening Day. While Uribe might not be an ideal everyday third baseman, he did do well for the Dodgers last season as just that. And it wasn't only because of his glove.

While he hit just .204 and .191 in limited action during the 2011 and 2012 season, Uribe had a resurgent year at the plate in 2013, hitting .278/.331/.438 with a 116 wRC+ and 50 RBI. He also posted a 5.1 fWAR in 2013. For his career, he's a .253/.299/.420 hitter, meaning he's probably in store for a bit of a decline in 2014. However, he definitely showed last season that he can still produce at the plate, all the while being stellar in the field, as he helped the Dodgers make the NLCS.

While he may get offers for more money and a starting spot elsewhere (Miami is apparently interested), if he wants a chance to play a meaningful role on a (fingers crossed) contender next season, the Yankees would be a prime destination. He's not that old (just 34), and he probably won't warrant more than a one or two-year deal. However, he may end up being more expensive than the Yankees are willing to spend on what they surely hope would mainly be just a bench/utility player.

Still, New York could certainly do a lot worse than having Uribe in this role, and it may be time to start planning on A-Rod not being the everyday third baseman next year. Uribe would be an ideal candidate; he could fill in admirably for Rodriguez , and when A-Rod (hopefully) returns, he'd remain a dependable option off the bench that could step up if/when the injury bug bites again.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Robinson Cano Free Agency: Did he travel to Detroit?

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There's a rumor going around that Robinson Cano took a private jet to Michigan in order to meet with the Tigers. It's not a very substantiated rumor, but the idea is floating around nonetheless:

There was, indeed, a charter plane that took off from Teterboro, N.J., about a half-hour outside New York City, at 6:59 a.m. Friday and landed at Willow Run 90 minutes later. The plane then sat at Willow Run until 2:04 p.m., when it headed back to Teterboro. The plane in question is a Kelso Air-owned business jet, a Bombardier Challenger 600, which seats between 14 and 18 passengers. This plane could cost as much as $4,100 per hour to charter, or more than $32,000 for this particular trip - impressive, to be sure, but not much of a dent for someone who made, say, $15 million in salary in 2013.

This jet also has made no other recent trips to Michigan. Its recent getaways include such locales as Augusta, Ga. (home of swanky Augusta National Golf Club); Bermuda; Sacramento, Calif.; San Diego; and Chicago.

You would think that just acquiring Ian Kinsler would take them off the market for a second baseman, and yet, after shedding $168 million in payroll from trading Prince Fielder, the Tigers could be clearing room for a $200 million contract. It's always possible they could make another big commitment and then play Kinsler at first base, like the Rangers were discussing doing, and keeping Miguel Cabrera at third base.

However, someone went straight to the source and asked Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski directly. He says they "plan on having Ian Kinsler as our second baseman this year." Conventional wisdom says that that's probably true because they're more likely to use the money they saved from Fielder to upgrade in other places, like outfield, third base, and the bullpen.

Hopefully for the Yankees the Tigers stay out of the running, that way they have one less competitor and Cano has one less suitor. The last thing they need is to get into a bidding war for his services. So far there hasn't been any substantial interest in the All-Star second baseman, but the offseason is young and there's plenty of time for rumors to become more.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

Carlos Beltran Free Agency: He hasn't asked for a four-year deal

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Carlos Beltran is one of the best free agents on the market in the 2013-2014 offseason. He'll be 37 years old and will cost a draft pick to sign, but he's rumored to be asking for a three or four-year deal. All together that sounds like way too much for the Yankees (or maybe he's perfect).

Now it seems that Beltran isn't asking for a four-year deal in preliminary negotiations with two different teams, like it was originally thought he would. If he could be had on a two-year deal, the Yankees would definitely be interested. A deal like that would take him through his age-38 season, but at this point he's becoming less of a starting outfielder and more of a designated hitter.

The Yankees project to have an outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki, and Vernon Wells, so an upgrade is likely coming, but would Beltran make sense? He's been interested in playing for the Yankees for years, yet each time the team has rejected his services. Is this the offseason that it all finally happens?

More from Pinstripe Alley:


Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 11/24/13

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Last Time on Pinstripe Alley


Yankees News

Coming Up Today

  • Yankees sign Brian McCann: Short-term slam dunk, long-term risk @ 9 am
  • Yankees sign Brian McCann: The effect on catching depth @ 11 am
  • Yankees sign Brian McCann: Good move or bad move? @ 1 pm
  • Yankees sign Brian McCann: What does it mean for Robinson Cano? @ 3 pm
  • Yankees sign Brian McCann: What number will he wear? @ 5 pm

Sunday Bird Droppings

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Brian McCann's signing may have an impact on Matt Wieters' future W2 form, Jim Johnson as a starter pondered, and Jonathan Schoop won a HR Derby in Curacao. We think.

Did NY do the O's "a solid?" - Birds Watcher
"One has to wonder, was this a preemptive move by New York?!" Um, no. The Yankees did not sign Brian McCann to prevent the Orioles from doing so. I was with you until then, BW. I certainly agree that NYY signing McCann means one less buyer for Matt Wieters in two years.

Thoughts on Orioles closer Jim Johnson - baltimoresun.com
Will closer Jim Johnson's expected salary drive him into the starting rotation next season?

Orioles week featured signings, more talk | Comcast SportsNet Baltimore
Rich Dubruff offers his weekly off-season review of the past seven days in Orioles Cul-de-Sac.

Steve Melewski: Gary Kendall on AFL championship: "The Orioles made a statement that day"
"It was neat to see the Orioles guys get to run out there and celebrate", said Gary Kendall, coach of the Orioles' Double-A Bowie Baysox and the AFL champion Surprise Saguaros. And really, is there any other kind of a seguaro than a surprise seguaro? I mean, if someone gave you one, wouldn't you be surprised?

School of Roch: Pondering probability of prospects breaking camp
Which prospect breaks camp with the O's next year? Roch channels our 42nd president and says it depends on what your definition of "prospect" is.

Schoop brothers dominate homerun derby | Versgeperst.com Curacao
Your weekly non-English Sunday Bird Dropping: Jonathan Schoop wins a home run derby in Curacao. We think. Anyone read Dutch?

Happy Birthday to former Orioles players Damian Moss, Ben McDonald and Fred Beene. Big Ben still has one of the two best curves I've ever seen out of an Orioles pitcher (Gregg Olson is the other, in case you were going to lose sleep over that.)

On this date in Orioles history, the Orioles lost Bobby Grich to a free-agent contract with California in 1976. Cal Ripken, Jr., wins the 1982 AL Rookie of the Year award. By the end of 1982, he had played 118 consecutive games.

Consider this your weekly NFL thread, although if you're still watching this season, you're probably the fan of a team located at least 200+ miles from Baltimore, or you have money on the games. I know in which camp I fall...

Yankees sign Brian McCann for big short-term gain

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Did the Yankees just buy the best catcher on the market? You betcha. Is it going to be a good move in the short term? Probably. In the long term? That's a different matter.

Reaction, counter-reaction, and overreaction. Somewhere on this scale lies the Yankees signing of Brian McCann to what is a five-year, $85 million deal with a vesting option for a sixth year. The contract will keep McCann in pinstripes from his age-30 season through age 34 or 35.

This is a deal that comes predigested. As you will (and likely have) read at any media outpost in the universe, McCann is a very consistent player. He hit .300 a couple of times early in his career, but over the last five years, seasons in which he had four campaigns that you can hardly tell apart and one possibly injury-inspired off year, he's hit .262/.343/.453, averaging 126 games and 21 home runs a season. It's easy to imagine the combination of McCann's left-handed swing and the unctuously friendly confines of Yankee Stadium producing even more.

McCann does have his flaws: Although in his career he hasn't suffered too badly against same-side pitching, over the last couple of years he hasn't hit left-handers at all. Shoulder injuries have meant that he's not too hard on the opposition running game. He's already caught over a thousand games, is already in the top 100 for games caught, and the Yankees are betting he'll be healthy and productive enough to make his way into the top 10; if he averages 130 games caught over the next six years, he'll just about get there.

It's a tall order. On average, McCann has been worth about 2.5 wins above replacement per season over the last five years. In his early seasons he had four- and five-win seasons. Maybe he'll get back there with the aid of Yankee Stadium, maybe he won't. Still, if he averages that same 2.5 wins a season over the six years of the deal, he'll be worth a total 15. Note, however, that from 1900 to present a relative handful of catchers have compiled that many wins from their age-30 season through the end of their careers. McCann is certainly talented enough that he will be a member of that class, which now numbers about 30, but let's turn the idea of career catching on its head, and instead of asking how many catchers have performed well during baseball's version of middle age, let's ask how many catchers have caught as many major league games as McCann has by the age of 29. The answer is 13, just 13:

Most Games Caught Through Age-29 Season

Name

G caught through 29

OPS through 29

WAR through 29

G caught  after 29

OPS after 29

WAR after 29

J. Bench

1391

827

59.6

351

792

15.6

I. Rodriguez

1326

826

47.3

1101

763

21.0

Ray Schalk

1324

661

26.3

403

638

2.3

T. Simmons

1310

819

39.8

461

733

10.5

Bill Freehan

1141

761

32.0

440

731

12.7

B. Wynegar

1136

701

25.9

111

632

0.5

Gary Carter

1114

799

48.0

942

742

21.8

T. McCarver

1097

726

23.0

290

722

5.4

Steve O'Neill

1096

674

19.2

436

712

4.9

Y. Molina*

1065

730

21.1

130

836

2.1

J. Kendall

1059

807

26.8

966

673

14.7

F. Hayes

1054

760

15.7

257

672

3.8

Al Lopez

1046

674

8.6

872

649

8.1

*Still rolling on, doncha know.

The average for post-29 games caught by this crew is 520. Still, we can throw out a bunch of them, right? Conditioning is better than when most of those jokers played, and the more recent guys -- Pudge-Rod, the Kid, Kendall -- were the ones who kept on going, even if they left their bats on the side of the road.

The Yankees are paying for more than 2.5 wins a year, for more than mere longevity. In the short term, they're going to see a vast improvement in production at catcher, but that's something of a gimme given just how far down they were this year, having decided to punt the position after letting Russell Martin leave town. They got all of .213/.289/.298 out of the combination of Chris Stewart, Austin Romine, Francisco Cervelli and J.R. Murphy -- all they could have expected to get. Even when Stewart had long since shown he was incapable (as if his career to date hadn't predetermined that outcome), they rattled no cages, made no moves, accelerated no timetables, just rode the same old same old right over the falls and out of the postseason. There were other reasons, of course, CC Sabathia's vanishing act, the multitude of injuries, the products of age and infirmity.

Those are not so easily corrected. The sour aftermath of this particular self-inflicted wound coincided with McCann's arrival on the free-agent stage. That was a temptation that proved too tough to resist, despite the fact that either Romine or Murphy might yet turn out to be serviceable players and that Gary Sanchez, should he ever get his offense, his defense and his attitude rowing in the same direction at once, might turn out to be that rare thing -- a backstop who's a middle of the order hitter. So you stifle all of that, you throw the 18th-overall draft pick next year out the window, which is to say the very thing that has a high likelihood of making this very old team even slightly younger.

The Yankees tried patching this way in the 1980s. It didn't work. They need to develop top-flight pitching on their own, because the influx of TV money into the game has eroded their financial advantage. The Cy Young Award types are not making their way to the free agency the way they used to. By the time they got a shot at Clayton Kershaw he'll have enough mileage on him to have gone to Jupiter and back. To grow your own, you need access to the first round. McCann can't help but be an improvement on Stewart's limp bat, but he can't help a lot of other things, like the pitching and a cast in the outfield corners so old that it would be better suited to play King Lear than left or right.

None of this is to say that more moves aren't coming, or that, taken in a vacuum, trading a first-round pick, with the possibility of getting a major league player or even a star, for the certainty of whatever McCann is going forward, is automatically a bad idea. It's that (a) the Yankees have a lot of work to do to make all the possible negative repercussions worthwhile, and (b) realistically, McCann's window is pretty small.

Complete Brian McCann coverage atPinstripe Alley

And here's another thing that no one seems to be thinking about: The Braves love local product more than any other team, repeatedly drafting Georgia products each June. McCann, a second-round pick back in 2002, was born in Georgia, went to high school in Georgia, did a chunk of his minor league apprenticeship in Georgia, and played major league baseball in Georgia. The country is smaller than it used to be, more homogenized; every city, north or south, has its Starbucks and its McDonald's. Whatever culture shock that comes with working in a new place must surely have been reduced, and even if it has not, it never stopped players from succeeding regardless of their point of origin. Georgian Ty Cobb went to the Hall of Fame playing in Detroit, Earle Combs, the Yankees' great center fielder of the 1920s, was known as the Kentucky Colonel, and Bill Terry hit .401 for the New York Giants in 1930 despite being born in Atlanta at a time when it wouldn't have been uncommon to meet veterans of the Confederate States Army on the street. That's a far cry from Starbucks and McDonald's. Still, you never know when something like that is going to bother someone. Remember Eddie Lee Whitson, product of Tennessee.

In short, did the Yankees just buy the best catcher on the market? You betcha. Is it going to be a good move in the short term? Almost certainly. His presence will mean fewer batting orders with three-out certitude like the Overbay-Ryan-Stewart combo that was gracing the bottom of Joe Girardi's batting orders in September. That in itself is a blessing. But do all those positives make the move a no-brainer, no-doubt-about-it positive? No. Time will tell on that one.

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Yankees sign Brian McCann: Short-term slam dunk, long-term risk

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With any free agent signing, people are going to approve and disapprove. Some will say it was a steal for the team, others for the player. Signing Brian McCann to a (potentially) $100 million contract will get a lot of attention and a lot of debate. In this instance I don't think anyone is exactly wrong, as he is an absolute slam dunk for the Yankees, yet still a serious risk for them.

Simply put, Brian McCann was the best catcher on the market, and it wasn't even close. While $85 million over five years is a lot, the Yankees will get better production in 2014 over Jarrod Saltalamacchia and A.J. Pierzynski, the next two catchers on the power rankings. He'll actually be a better option over the 2015 free agent crop of Russell Martin, Ryan Hanigan, and Ryan Doumit, so the Yankees had to spend the most to get the most in return.

While they only needed a moderate upgrade to have a better option than what they had in 2013, the Yankees opted to go for broke at a position that desperately needed improvement. This past season, Chris Stewart had a 58 wRC+, while Austin Romine had an even worse 48 wRC+. Together with a handful of games form Francisco Cervelli and J.R. Murphy, the Yankees' catching corps placed 23rd overall in WAR (0.9) and 26th in wRC+ (61). Brian McCann alone had a 2.7 WAR and 122 wRC+, despite returning from offseason shoulder surgery and missing the first month of the season. With his career .277/.350/.473 line and the 20-home run potential, he will be a major upgrade over what they had. Like night and day.

Unfortunately, while he promises to bring immediate improvements to the lineup, his injury history brings on a lot of potential risk. He had shoulder surgery last offseason, and while his offensive game didn't suffer in 2013, it completely killed him in 2012. That year he only hit .230/.300/.399 as he dealt with shoulder inflammation, damage to his labrum and a cyst, but finally succumbing to a hamstring injury and shoulder surgery. It's been fixed, but there's no telling how major surgery will hamper his career.

McCann isn't a great defender behind the plate, having a -13 defensive runs saved for his career. He's not great against base runners either, with a -5 stolen base runs saved and a meager 24% caught stealing rate. He does have a 22.3 blocked pitches above average, so we might not have to worry about fastballs down the middle hitting the backstop. By the end of his contract, there's no telling where he will be defensively, he might even be someone who will have to move out from behind the plate and take over first base when Mark Teixeira leaves after 2016.

So far he hasn't dealt with a lot of major injuries, just one is enough for me, but he has suffered from a series of mild injuries here and there, and seeing how young he was then, makes me worry about what the Yankees will have to deal with when he's 34 and 35. He's already missed plenty of days thanks to foul tips and contusions that all catchers suffer through. He also suffered two ankle sprains, a knee sprain, an injured groin and a concussion.

Looking back at Jorge Posada, he missed only 25 games between his age-31 and age-35 seasons. Comparatively, McCann has already missed 81 games between his age-25 and age-29 seasons. He also missed an additional 28 games between 2006 and 2008, so a total of 109 games before the age of 30. Thankfully, the shoulder is really the only injury to keep an eye on. His legs, which are important to a catcher, both at the plate and behind it, have also been pretty healthy so far.

To go along with his injuries, McCann seems to be a second half-fader. If people were annoyed at Russell Martin's production patterns, McCann at $18 million for half a year of production could really have people seeing red. Over his career he has a 126 wRC+ in the first half, but only a 107 wRC+ in the second half. That's still fine, but consider the fact that he's been a below-average hitter in the second half of the last three seasons. Combine that to a quickly growing platoon split and the Yankees are going to need to make sure they have a solid backup catcher, like the Braves had in David Ross.

It's definitely possible that he's healthy now and the only thing the Yankees will have to worry about are the normal wears and tears all catchers deal with. He'll only be 34/35 by the end of the deal, so he shouldn't be completely broken down. Playing in the American League and being able to DH will hopefully keep him healthy and productive throughout the season. The Yankees are hoping to benefit from the first few years of the deal while bracing for impact and hoping the damage is not too terrible in the latter years. Right now it's a good deal, but anything can happen to turn it into an albatross. Look what happened to Joe Mauer.

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Hiroki Kuroda free agency: Yankees growing confident SP will return

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Kuroda would likely be looking for a one-year deal if he comes back as he has publicly stated he wants to pitch in Japan again before retirement.

The Yankees are growing more confident that starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda will play one more season in the MLB, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

At the outset of the offseason, the team was less-than-optimistic that Kuroda would choose to return. He has made it public that he would like to go back to Japan to pitch before he officially retires from baseball. The 38-year-old is nearing the end of his playing days and could choose to call it quits any year now.

As the offseason has rolled on, New York now feels they have a better chance to re-sign their top pitcher from 2013. Kuroda made 32 starts for the team last season, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

If Kuroda does choose to continue playing in the MLB, the Yankees are certainly the most likely to sign him. He turned down a qualifying offer from the team, meaning anyone else would be required to forfeit a draft pick if they were to agree to a contract with Kuroda. New York has already shown a willingness to spend this offseason, and their rotation needs help. The Yankees are also expected to bid heavily on Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka when a new posting agreement is made.

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