The Yankees have agreed to terms with outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, pending a physcial, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. The deal is for seven years and $153 million, which exceeds the deal Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox before the 2011 season.
The Yankees' deal with Ellsbury is done, pending a physical. I'm told the contract is bigger than Crawford's 7 year/$142M deal.
Ellsbury's signing may be directly related to Carlos Beltran receiving a three-year deal for $48 million earlier today. The Yankees had been heavily involved with free agent outfielders, including Beltran, Ellsbury, and Shin-Soo Choo. This almost certainly means that Curtis Granderson won't be returning next season. If Plan 189 is still in play, it could very much mean the end for Robinson Cano in New York, too. Hopefully that is not the case. Jeff Passan says, however, that the Yankees believe they have room for Ellsbury, Cano or Choo, and a starting pitcher, likely spelling the end of Plan 189.
Source: Not only do the Yankees believe they've got room for Ellsbury and Cano or Choo, they still plan on signing at least one SP as well.
In 134 games for the Red Sox last season, Ellsbury hit .298/.355/.426 with nine home runs. He finished 15th in MVP voting, though he finished second in the MVP vote after his career season in 2011.
CBS Sports Jon Heyman reports the Yankees have signed outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven year deal for $153 million. Here is the fantasy impact.
Tuesday brought us one of the busiest day of trades and free agent signings in quite some time, but none are bigger than what CBS Sports Jon Heyman is reporting:
Some are reporting that the Yankees are in on both Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo, both of whom are Scott Boras clients, so signing both would mean good bye to second baseman Robinson Cano. I doubt they sign both, but signing Ellsbury would be a solid move for the Yankees who have plenty of holes to fill in their lineup this offseason.
They already signed catcher Brian McCann to a five year deal, and now this possible seven year deal for Ellsbury would certainly be a very good start to filling the holes in their lineup.
Here is what their lineup will look like after this deal, which looks pretty close:
On paper, it is a pretty good lineup. Should they go out and sign Robinson Cano on top of McCann and Ellsbury, I imagine they would just throw the Plan $189 out the window, which I think they HAVE to do after their disappointing 2013 season, which saw them miss the playoffs for the first time in quite awhile. On top of that, fans stopped coming to the ballpark, so dropping the $189 million payroll limit would indicate they are serious about getting back to being the old Yankees, that spends more than any other team in an effort to win and get to the World Series.
Update: Here is the latest on the Ellsbury contract:
Yankees deal with Ellsbury is seven years and $153 million. That's $12 million more than Crawford's contract.
For fantasy purposes, I don't think this changes Ellsbury's value one bit. Actually, he might hit a few more home runs in Yankee Stadium, or Coors Field East. But, as it is, I am not a big fan of Ellsbury, but he is valuable in the batting average, runs and stolen base categories.
The Yankees just signed Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven year/$153 million dollar contract. What impact does this move have on Plan 189?
Since the beginning of the 2013 season, and even before that, the Yankees have tossed around this somewhat unheard of notion regarding keeping under a $189 million payroll for the upcoming offseason. Plan 189, as it was called, was to be a change in the direction of the Yankees' usual tactics of paying top dollar for free agents or taking on expensive, salary dump trades. Well, here we are about to enter the winter meetings, and Plan 189 is now in question.
Last week, the Yankees signed Brian McCann to a five year, $85 million dollar contract. McCann was one of the best catchers on the market, if not the best. After dealing with a season of Chris Stewart, few people were surprised that the Yankees wanted to upgrade. Even though the years and money given to McCann could be considered questionable, Plan 189 was still somewhat in play. Earlier today, the Yankees announced that McCann passed all his physicals and that a press conference would be held on Thursday to welcome him to his new home in the Bronx. Hal Steinbrenner then boldly stated that they "were just getting started." It seems like he was not kidding.
Yesterday the Yankees stunned the baseball world and signed Jacoby Ellsbury, the now former Boston Red Sox outfielder, to a massive seven-year, $153 million contract. This out of the blue signing puts into question if the Yankees still have any plans to follow through with Plan 189. For starters, they still need a starting pitcher or two. More importantly, Robinson Cano is still a free agent and the Yankees seem to be holding firm that they are not going to outbid themselves for him like the have in the past.
To talk about how this affects Plan 189 means you have to talk about what kind of player they just signed. Jacoby Ellsbury, when healthy, is a very fast, decent, all around good player who can thrive in the Bronx. That is not the issue with this deal. What matters the most is that Ellsbury was the most expensive outfield option on the market. They could have signed Shin-Soo Choo for fewer years. They could've given Carlos Beltran a three-year, or even a four-year deal, and it would still cost less for fewer years. They still might. After this deal, everything and anything is on the table.
For now though, the Yankees followed their usual, before Plan 189 M.O. and signed one of the most expensive players on the market to mega-contract. This contract comes only a week after signing Brian McCann and several weeks after giving Derek Jeter a raise. They claim to be holding firm on Robinson Cano, and yet here they are with Ellsbury soon to be in pinstripes. These are the "If the boss were here" Yankees coming into play. It could be that the last offseason, followed by a regular season of Chris Stewart, Vernon Wells, and pick-a-third-baseman on the field for the Yankees seriously derailed any thoughts of Plan 189. This most certainly sounds like the big spending Evil Empire the majority of us have grown up with these past two decades. These are the types of moves that fully attempt to show the fans and rest of baseball that the 2013 Yankees, with whom many think flushed away the season to save some money, are gone.
Plan 189 still could be in play, though. Even if they give Cano the mega contract he's expected to get, the Yankees might have more moves in the works to help get the payroll under $189 million for 2014. There's also the Alex Rodriguez factor to consider. Perhaps the Yankees know something the rest of us don't know about his possible suspension. There will always be information that we are not privy to. Actions tend to speak louder than words, though, and these past two weeks have come with a thunderous boom that the Yankees are ready, willing, and able to do what they tend to do best: put a championship caliber team on the field.
The Yankees made a huge commitment to a player often described as a light-hitting, injury-prone outfielder. However, is that a fair assessment, and was it a sound decision to sign him?
Yesterday was a huge day of transactions around Major League Baseball, and the Yankees made the biggest splash of them all by signing former Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to seven-year contract worth $153 million. It's one of the biggest free agent deals ever signed for an outfielder, and the high cost alone has been enough to earn some harsh words about it around the Internet and media. The bulk of the criticism seems to stem from a couple major opinions:
Ellsbury is injury-prone.
Ellsbury's best features are based around speed, which doesn't age well.
There are other points being made about Ellsbury's effect on Robinson Cano's contract, the minor leaguers, and whether or not other outfielders would have been better than Ellsbury, but these appear to be the two central points of dispute. (Those will also be addressed in separate articles, anyway.) So should fans really be concerned about his health and possible decline in speed?
Ellsbury = Injury-prone?
Ellsbury has missed 264 games out of the past 648 since the start of the 2010 season due to injuries, earning him the injury-prone tag by many of his critics. People like the Flagrant Fan's William Tasker have legitimate gripes about the overuse of the term "injury-prone" around the game since few injuries are actually chronic like Mickey Mantle's knees. Ellsbury's injuries haven't been chronic, so would it actually be fair to call Ellsbury injury-prone?
Well, the following two freak collisions resulted in approximately 222 of those 264 missed games. On April 11, 2010, Ellsbury was playing left field when he slid to try and catch a foul pop-up and ended up with third baseman Adrian Beltre's knee in his ribs.
Since it was so far from third, that was Ellsbury's ball, and Beltre had to have done a better job getting out of Ellsbury's way. Instead, his knee fractured five of Ellsbury's ribs. Some very crappy misdiagnosis work by the Red Sox team doctors led them to ruling that they weren't going give him an MRI. He was forced to play through the injury, and that only made it worse. Eventually, the team figured out what was wrong, but it was too late to save Ellsbury's season. He only played in 18 games that year, but can he really be blamed for Beltre running into him and Red Sox medical staff doing their best Mets impression?
Collision number two occurred on a stolen base attempt almost exactly two years later on April 13, 2012. Ellsbury slid into second base and his shoulder collided with the knee of Rays shortstop Reid Brignac (of 2013 Yankees "fame").
Anybody can get injured on a stolen base attempt; it's happened to the best of base stealers from time to time. Ellsbury slid normally, and his shoulder happened to find Brignac's knee. He suffered a right shoulder subluxation that put him on the shelf for 79 games, and the lasting effects of the shoulder injury understandably had a negative impact on the power that he surprised by baseball with in 2011. Again, it was a collision, so it seems unfair to blame him much for this injury, too.
Aside from these two collisions, Ellsbury has only missed about 40 games since 2010, 16 of which occurred when he fouled a ball off his foot and fractured it down the stretch last year (again, difficult to avoid). While some of the nicks and bruises do come as a result of his aggressive style of play, which is similar to Brett Gardner, it's not as though he has common injury problems. Two collisions resulted in the lion's share of his games missed. The tag of "injury-prone" on Ellsbury is overstated.
Thanks to SB Nation MLB/Over the Monster scribe Marc Normandin for information of Ellsbury's collisions.
Ellsbury's best features are centered around speed, which doesn't age well
Contrary to popular belief, strong sabermetric voices like Bill James and FanGraphs lead writer Dave Cameron have argued that speed actually ages well. The idea that speed doesn't age well is constructed around the notion that once a player loses his speed, he doesn't have much left. However, here is what James has stated in the past:
As players age, their hitting skills decline and their speed decreases, which creates a kind of pincer movement that ultimately snaps careers. The number one thing that drives players out of the game is the loss of hitting skill, but the number two thing is the loss of speed. As players slow down they become less able to play the key defensive positions -- center, right, shortstop -- and get pushed toward the positions for slower players, which are also the positions for big hitters. THE thing that drives them out of the game is not the loss in hitting ability in absolute terms. There are dozens of 37-year-old first basemen who could still hit enough to play -- if they could play the outfield. When their speed drops below a certain level, they're no longer able to play the outfield at a decent level, no longer able to hit enough to be a cleanup hitter, and they're gone.
Ellsbury has tremendous speed, as evidenced by his high FanGraphs baserunning score last year (11.4) and 241 career steals in just 715 career games. He'd led the AL in stolen bases three times, including a MLB-best 52 last year and a career-high 70 in 2009. He was only caught four times last year, an outstanding 92.9% success rate. Right now, his Speed Score would be around the top of a hypothetical 1-10 scale. He has a long way to fall before he reaches a level that will drive him from the game. Rickey Henderson is not the only person to ever maintain great speed into his later years; both Kenny Lofton and Otis Nixon stole over 20 bases at age 40. By the end of the contract, Ellsbury won't even be as old as Lofton and Nixon were--he'll have just turned 37 during the September of the seventh year. Players like Ellsbury age well.
Cameron wrote about the "Slow Decline of Speedy Outfielders" just a few weeks ago, and that analysis brought forth the following assuring paragraph:
Defense absolutely does peak early and should be expected to decline fairly substantially for any player heading into his 30s. However, history shows that players who are athletic enough to be valuable baserunners and defenders in their twenties are usually good enough athletes to maintain almost all of their offensive value as they get older. For a player like Ellsbury who isn’t just a defensive specialist, that value shouldn’t be expected to decay at the same rate as his defense. He probably won’t continue to be a +10 center fielder, but even if he declines to an average defender in center field, if he maintains a 110 to 115 wRC+, that’s still going to make him a pretty valuable player; there aren’t that many guys in baseball who can play center field and be above average big league hitters.
People didn't talk much about Ellsbury's bat last year, but he did just fine for the Red Sox, hitting .295/.355/.426 with a 113 wRC+. He followed it up by hitting .344/.408/.438 in the playoffs. His excellent defense and baserunning were not the only reasons for his superb 5.9 fWAR and 5.8 rWAR. Even a league average 100 wRC+ would have led to him being at least a four-win player. Those attributes are going to keep him a useful player for awhile. As for the all-too-convenient comparisons to Carl Crawford, Cameron had this to say:
One cannot be intellectually honest while citing Carl Crawford if you’re not also going to simultaneously cite Rickey Henderson, Ichiro Suzuki, and Kenny Lofton. There are examples of every single player type that have signed huge contracts and immediately imploded. If we’re just going to cherry pick recent examples of contracts gone terrible, we could argue that teams shouldn’t sign any player at any position with any skillset. Power hitters who scare opposing pitchers? Meet Albert Pujols. Up the middle guys who can hit like sluggers? Hi there Matt Kemp. Elite aces in the prime of their careers? Johan Santana, come on down.
Carl Crawford’s production is not Jacoby Ellsbury’s fait accompli; it’s one possible path of many. Every player’s future is a probability distribution, bottoming out at completely and utterly useless. Every single player could turn into a total dud tomorrow. And every single player could actually play better in the future than they have in the past. There is no single example that represents the expected outcome for any other player, no matter how similar they might appear to be.
Cameron hits the nail on the head about the Crawford vs. Ellsbury comparisons. Just because one recent example turned out poorly doesn't mean that all subsequent contracts to similar players will turn into a disaster. For a good speed-based contract, one could turn to Shane Victorino. People panned the Red Sox committing three years to an apparently-declining 32-year-old Victorino, and even though his game is mostly based around baserunning and defense (despite what the GIFs might tell you), it looks pretty good through Year One. Cameron's recent article compared Ellsbury to 10 other outfielders over the past 30 years who showed similar skillsets to Ellsbury from ages 27-29, and of the 10, six generated at least 17 fWAR over their ages 30-36 seasons. One of the four who didn't was Andy Van Slyke (13 age 30-36 fWAR), who had a 117 wRC+ from ages 30-36, but never had nearly the speed or defense that Ellsbury does.
So yeah, Crawford could end up like a Craword or an Aaron Rowand, but there's a fine chance that he'll end up like a Lofton or Steve Finley. Even if Ellsbury become Devon White, who generated 17 age 30-36 fWAR based mostly around defense and baserunning due to his 100 wRC+, then it would not be a bad outcome. Don't fall into the "speed doesn't age well" trap.
***
There's no debating that the Yankees are taking a gamble by giving Ellsbury such a large contract. Even Cameron estimates that Ellsbury will probably have to perform around Ichiro or Tim Raines levels reach the approximate 25 fWAR over the next seven years to justify the Yankees guaranteeing him $153 million. Even with Ellsbury's excellent speed and defense, it will likely be an overpay (as almost all free agent contracts are).
However, keep in mind that these are the Yankees, not a small-market team. If they've truly abandoned Plan 189, which the big contracts to Ellsbury and Brian McCann likely indicate, then paying big for talent is not a problem. They paid big for talent in the 2008-09 offseason, and over the next five years, it earned them a World Series title, three division titles, and three ALCS berths. That's not a bad output.
The Yankees had a need in the outfield; there were none under contract past 2014, and the current outfield setup would likely have led to extended time for one of Vernon Wells and the now-awful Ichiro (note that he did not decline until he turned 37 in 2011; Ellsbury won't turn 37 until the end of Year Seven). Acquiring Ellsbury shores up a hole on the roster; not only does he provide speed and defensive value, but just one Yankees regular exceeded his 113 wRC+ in 2013. The Yankees have the financial wherewithal to handle Ellsbury's contract. I will take the free-spending Yankees every day of the week over the ones that were too cheap to re-sign Nick Swisher or find a legitimate catcher in 2013.
I'm not really worried about Ellsbury's speed or injury history. It will be tough for him to be worth his $153 million contract though, and while his defensive tools are impressive, it would be more comforting if those collisions hadn't happened and we had more than two recent full seasons of data to research. The Yankees acquired one of the best position players on the market, my preferred choice of top outfielder (while a better hitter, Shin-Soo Choo is a nightmare on defense), and ensured that Ichiro and Wells will not be in the starting outfield for 2014. This move cannot be the last big one of the off-season, though; the Yankees are going to need reinforcements more than just McCann and Ellsbury to make them favorites to return to the playoffs. Bring back Cano, sign another starting pitcher (preferably Masahiro Tanaka, if possible), and then the Steinbrenners will have a team that is a legitimate threat to make Ellsbury a back-to-back champion. As long as this signing doesn't make the Yankees complacent about their current roster, I would give it a wary-but-optimistic thumbs up.
It had previously been reported that Jacoby Ellsbury's $153 million deal over seven years also included some kind of option for an eighth year that would make the contract worth a total of $163 million when it was all said and done. According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, there appears to be no such option and the deal ends with the seventh year. WRONG. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
The deal already pays him nearly $22 $21 million a year, so it's good to know that the Yankees didn't shell out any more money for their new center fielder. The deal will lock up Ellsbury from his age-30 season through his age-36 season, likely when his game will begin to deteriorate in the field, at the plate and on the base paths, so it's good to know, after all the talk of the Yankees signing old worn down players, that they have managed to lock up Ellsbury and Brian McCann to longterm deals without (hopefully) having to go through their decline years.
Of course, an option year wouldn't be so bad if it contained language similar to McCann's where he would have to be a healthy and productive member of the team for it to vest. Maybe making it contingent on what position he is playing in the outfield by the end of the deal would have made sense, but the 2021 season, the next season the Yankees will be without Jacoby Ellsbury under contract, is a very long time away, so there's no reason to worry about who will be in center field then.
UPDATE:
Now according to Joel Sherman, there is an eighth-year option. The base salary will be $148 million and then there will be a $21 million club option for an eighth year or a $5 million buyout, making the total amount of guaranteed money to be $153 million. If the option is exercised, the contract total would go all the way up to $174 million.
A club option is much better than a vesting option because the Yankees now don't have to worry about how they use their center fielder. His last year would be in 2020, and then they have the ability to keep him in 2021 for $21 million or cut him loose for $5 million.
Does the Jacoby Ellsbury signing put the futures of Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, and Tyler Austin in jeopardy?
Signing Jacoby Ellsbury helps the Yankees fill out their outfield for 2014 with Brett Gardner and Alfonso Soriano, though the team could still make a play for Shin-Soo Choo or Carlos Beltran if all the chips fall just right. With long term deals comes concern for prospects that may not get their shot when blocked by a more expensive, established veteran, and the Yankees have a trio of outfield prospects that could potentially be impacted by the Ellsbury deal.
Tyler Austin and Slade Heathcott each spent the entire 2013 season with Double-A Trenton, putting them in position to start the year at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre if the Yankees feel like they did all they could do at the lower level. In an injury-shortened season of 83 games, Austin hit .257/.344/.373 with only six home runs. The year prior with the Charleston RiverDogs and Tampa Yankees, Austin combined for sixteen homers. Fourteen of those came at the Low-A level. Trenton's ballpark is pitcher-friendly, possibly explaining some of the power outage, but it's possible that the Yankees will want to test Austin for more than 83 games there. The team has had Austin on a bit of a fast track, so they may see no reason to keep him back next season. Conversely, Heathcott managed to put up his highest games played total with 103 at Trenton last season, hitting .261/.327/.411. He'll be turning 24 next season, so starting him in Triple-A could be a logical move.
Mason Williams is a bit of the odd man out after failing to prove he could hit pitching at the High-A level consistently. The toolsy outfielder consistently ranked near the top of Yankees prospect lists, but it has to be a little concerning that he hasn't yet put it together at the lower levels of the minors. Williams did make it to Double-A briefly at the end of the 2013 season, mainly out of necessity due to injury, but it's almost a given that the Yankees will want to see him perform consistently against better pitching before they move him up the ranks too far.
Assuming that Austin and Heathcott begin the year with the RailRiders in Scranton and Williams starts off no higher than Double-A Trenton, the Ellsbury move doesn't really impact their futures at all. Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki, Alfonso Soriano, and Vernon Wells are all ticketed for free agency or the waiver wire within the next year, freeing up two of three outfield spots for any of the prospects that prove they are ready for the majors after next season. With zero of the three having played at Triple-A before, it's unlikely that any of them would be more than a September call-up in 2014. That gives the Yankees time to see how they perform, if they can stay healthy, and potentially give them a taste of the majors late next year. Once room is cleared in the outfield, Austin and Heathcott could very well be given a shot to make the majors in 2015 if they've earned it.
No one is confused about which team they root for, however, and it's always possible that they become trade bait before they see the majors next year. Or maybe the Yankees bypass them in favor of a free agent or big name trade acquisition. All of that is a problem for a different day. The big news is that Ellsbury doesn't damage the outfield prospects' future if they can perform well enough to make the majors. The Yankees have brought in players before that blocked a promising prospect for the future, but that's not the case with Ellsbury.
Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball have been hard at work trying to nail down an agreement for a new posting system. The last proposal fell through after NPB had reservations about approving a system that would only give the Japanese team the average between the highest and second highest posting fee.
Now the predominant idea making the rounds would introduce a posting limit in order to put a cap on posting fees before they get any more outrageous. NPB has reportedly approved of a capped posting system, however, they are not liking the proposed biding limit of $20 million. MLB wants to reduce the prices for Japanese players, but $20 million is kind of a joke. Yu Darvish required a bid over $50 million, and some say Masahiro Tanaka could cost around $60 million. There's no way NPB would be ok limiting the amount of money they get so suddenly.
How would a max bid even work? If Tanaka posted today, almost every team would bid $20 million. Apparently if multiple teams bid the max they will then "vie in negotiations for player." I'm not entirely sure what that might mean, but it sounds a lot like a bidding war. Does the Japanese team get the tie-breaking bid? I feel very uncomfortable about an open bidding because then the price will really get out of hand, and if we're starting at such a low point, it's bound to happen.
I would have assumed that the max bid would be $80-$100 million in order to prevent things from getting any higher. The system would work roughly the same and by the time it could reach that amount the posting system would probably have to be renewed again. This would be a slow transition away from the posting system, but a max bid this low is too drastic.
Meanwhile, the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles are preparing a new contract for their 25-year-old ace just in case no agreement is made and Tanaka is unable to post for the 2014 season. The Yankees will just have to sit and wait for something to give.
Could the Yankees set their sights on another outfielder if they lose out on Robinson Cano?
Despite less than 24 hours passing since the Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year deal, the team remains in talks with free agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. The Yankees believe they have the ability to bring in another big name offensive player and a starting pitcher with the money they have left to spend and they've been interested in Choo based on rumors throughout the offseason.
Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger believes that the Yankees would be interested in inking Choo to a deal if they lose out on Robinson Cano. Choo would allow them to shift Alfonso Soriano to a DH role or trade Brett Gardner, who will be a free agent after the 2014 season. The Yankees had been focused on the trio of Carlos Beltran, Choo, and Ellsbury, preferring Beltran to the others at first. When the Royals decided to up their proposed agreement with Beltran to three years, the Yankees looked elsewhere.
Ellsbury became the top target over Choo because of the team's concerns about Choo's splits against left-handed pitchers and preferring Ellsbury's ability to play good center field defense in case Gardner departs after next season. McCullough says that the team values Gardner and doesn't want to trade him, but the possibility remains an option if they end up with Choo instead of Cano.
Choo hit .285/.423/.462 in 154 games with the Reds last season with 21 home runs on the year. He'd be able to provide some needed power in the lineup if the Yankees cannot come to an agreement with Cano this offseason.
Do you think it's worth it for the Yankees to pursue Choo?
The Mariners have stepped up their pursuit of Robinson Cano, and they may have already exceeded the Yankees' offer to him. According to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News, the Mariners were ready to exceed the seven-year offer worth $165-$170 million from the Yankees. Their idea was that they could turn Cano into a baseball legend that brought a World Series championship to Seattle instead of him being merely a Yankee legend.
McCarron says that the Yankees and Mariners are easily the two teams most involved in talks with Cano and his representatives. With the Yankees just inking Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year deal worth $153 million, it's likely impossible for the Yankees to continue to hold the line on their previous offer. Can they really tell Cano that he is worth basically the same as Ellsbury?
It had long been rumored that Cano's preference was to stay in New York and with the Yankees, but it's going to require the team being fair to him in order to keep their All-Star second baseman. It seems unlikely that they'd retain him for less than eight years and $200 million at this point, but it's clear after the signings of Brian McCann and Ellsbury that the Yankees aren't going to wait. They have a backup plan in place in the form of Shin-Soo Choo and seem very content to spend wildly until they put enough pressure on Cano to concede the extra years and dollars he wants.
The Yankees may still be the favorites to land Cano, but if they aren't careful he could very much end up going somewhere else that won't play hardball with him quite as much.
Jacoby Ellsbury is the youngest of the free agent outfielders and he's coming off the best season between himself, Carlos Beltran, and Shin-Soo Choo, but is the newest Yankee the best bet to provide production over the life of his contract?
The Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury to a massive contract, expecting big production out of the former Red Sox player. All of the free agent outfield options will come with risk. Carlos Beltran is old. He can no longer play Gold Glove defense. He is an injury risk. Shin-Soo Choo is younger, but had his worst year on defense, requires a longer contract and can no longer hit lefties. Jacoby Ellsbury is slightly younger than Choo, is coming off the best year of the three, and has speed which ages pretty well, but he requires the biggest financial outlay, has an injury history of his own, and duplicates the only position player under contract for next year who actually performed well last year. All would be major upgrades for the Yankees offense in the near term. Ellsbury's youth, speed, and recent performance make him seem like the best bet, but the price, injuries, and aging curves show significant risk.
Jacoby Ellsbury has had two excellent seasons, two average seasons, and two seasons shortened by injury since being called up for good in 2008. Fortunately for him, one of his excellent seasons happened this past year at age 30. He hit .298/.355/.426 for a wRC+ of 113 to go along with 52 steals and excellent defense in centerfield. His fWAR was 5.8. Last year, at age 30, Choo had the best offensive season of his career. He hit .285/.423./.462 and had a wRC+ of 151. His defense left something to be desired, although he was miscast as a center fielder and still ended up with an fWAR of 5.2. Beltran had another solid season with the bat, hitting .296/.339/.491 with a wRC+ of 132. His defensive numbers were significantly worse than the year prior. Curiously, both Beltran and Jon Jay, the Cardinals' center fielder, saw their defensive numbers plummet. Beltran ended up with an fWAR of 2, right around the average player. His defensive numbers were so bad, if he had just been a designated hitter all year, his WAR would have been about half a win higher.
Projection typically emphasize two things: recent performance and age. Choo and Ellsbury have both age and an edge in recent performance on their side. Because fWAR and bWAR provide slightly different numbers, and defensive statistics are more accurate when used over a larger sample size, I made some adjustments. First, I averaged the current season and the season prior defensively to adjust both versions of WAR. After making that adjustment, I then averaged the two adjusted WARs. What you see below is the cumulative adjusted WAR of each player beginning in 2009.
As you can see, Choo has been the most consistent performer of the three. Ellsbury has been the most inconsistent, but also has the best individual seasons. Beltran lags behind. At first glance, this graph shows why Beltran should be avoided. However, a closer look provides a differing viewpoint. The reason: the graph above shows Ellsbury and Choo in their primes while it only shows Beltran's decline phase.
Aging curves are linear. Players decline at roughly the same rate after they reach their peak. Despite Ellsbury's limited experience, he has likely already played his best baseball. Admittedly, the same holds true for Choo as well as Beltran. The reason Beltran gains the advantage is because he has come somewhat close to matching the other two during his decline.
Ellsbury may have one more really good season in him, maybe two, but how long will it take for him to be right where Beltran is now? Beltran played at a Hall of Fame level for many years during his prime, and he has held up fairly well. Ellsbury in his prime is not on the same level as Beltran in his prime. The question is when does Ellsbury hit where Beltran is now? Is it year three, when the Yankees will still have 4 years and $22 million per year to go? Year four, after which the Yankees will have three years and $66 million to go? Even if it does not happen until year five, the Yankees will still be on the hook for two more years and $44 million, essentially what Beltran wanted over three years.
Contracts like Ellsbury's are signed with the expectation that the player will overperform toward the beginning of the contract to make up for the decline at the end. In order for Ellsbury to overperform, he's going to have to stay healthy and have very good seasons, something he's only managed to do twice out of six years. All of the available outfielders come with risks, but Ellsbury comes with the most. This deal could work out well for the Yankees, but I'm skeptical the team will be pleased the end results.
There are plenty of reports coming out about how Nippon Professional Baseball has agreed to MLB's idea to cap the posting bids as part of the new posting system. The hang up has been for the amount, which is supposedly $20 million. There are conflicting reports saying how NPB has agreed to that limit, but also that the Eagles have not. If they don't agree to post their player, then Masahiro Tanaka can't be posted.
Then there's the matter of what happens if two teams place the same bid, which is likely to happen often for elite players like Tanaka. Some say that the player can then choose who they sign with, essentially making him a free agent, just with a limited amount of suitors. There is also the idea that, in the case of a tie, the rights to negotiate with a player will go to the team with the lowest winning percentage.
Whatever ends up happening, it will definitely change the Yankees' chances of landing Tanaka. Half the teams in baseball would spend a payroll-independent $20 million for the chance at landing a marquee player with Tanaka's upside. If the final agreement establishes that a tie goes to the lesser team, the Yankees aren't getting him. That would really end up being an unfair system because the Astros would end up winning every time.
If the player ends up with the right to choose, then it basically ends up being just like free agency, only teams would have to pay in to be eligible to negotiate. The Yankees might have the ability to outspend their opponents, but this would basically end the practice of giving Japanese players a below-market contract, since they now have alternatives to choose from. It's unknown if they would want to give Tanaka a competitive deal, but if so, they could still land him with the help of Ichiro Suzuki and (hopefully) Hiroki Kuroda.
What do you think of the newest Yankee outfielder and his lucrative contract?
The Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury to a massive seven-year, $153 million deal on Tuesday. This deal is larger than the one Carl Crawford signed with the Boston Red Sox before the 2011 season, and is the third largest deal an outfielder has ever received (behind $160 million dollar deals Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez got). After a season spent watching their outfielders struggle at the plate, especially Ichiro Suzuki to Vernon Wells, the Yankees clearly had to make an upgrade. With Brett Gardner being the only consistent presence in the outfield last year, and Alfonso Soriano's age and worrying all-or-nothing production at the plate, the Yankees certainly made an upgrade by adding Ellsbury.
Ellsbury has played his entire career for Boston where he won two World Series titles. He's a lifetime .297/.350/.439 hitter, and he's stolen more than 50 bases in three out of the four seasons where he's played more than 100 games. Still, the fact that he's only played more than 100 games four times in his seven year career should raise some red flags. The first year was his rookie season when he spent most of the year moving between the major leagues and Triple-A Pawtucket, but the other two (2010 and 2012) were injury-shortened campaigns, meaning there's some risk involved in this signing. Still, Ellsbury has been a good player so far in his career, and he had a great (if unlikely to be repeated) year in 2011, when he had a 150 wRC+ with 32 home runs, 119 RBI and a 9.1 fWAR.
What do you think of the Ellsbury signing? The Yankees seem to be back to their free-spending ways, but is this the best use of their money as they attempt to improve a team that missed the playoffs for just the second time in 19 years? Vote in the poll and sound off in the comments below!
According to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, the Yankeeshave signed pitcher Brian Gordon to a minor league contract. There's no word if he got an invite to Spring Training or if it's just a straight minor league deal.
Gordon, a 35-year-old right-hander, was a member of the 2011 Yankees, if you remember. He made two spot-starts, one good; one bad, that season. On June 16, Gordon allowed two runs in 5.2 innings against the Texas Rangers. Six days later he got shelled against the Cincinnati Reds by allowing three home runs (two to Chris Heisey, who hit three on the day) and four runs total in five innings pitched. He was then sent down to Triple-A Scranton shortly there after once Bartolo Colon came off the disabled list. All told, Gordon has a career 4.40 ERA and 6.12 FIP in five outings and 14.1 innings pitched combined with the Yankees and the Rangers.
Obviously, Gordon has spent much more time down in the minors than he has in the majors. In his minor league career, which spans seven seasons, Gordon has posted a 3.13 ERA in 220 games, though 197 of those appearances came as a reliever. Gordon has spent time in six different organizations, including the Astros, Rangers, Phillies, Yankees, and, most recently, with the Athletics, where he pitched to a 3.57 ERA in 51 relief outings last season in Triple-A.
If the new posting agreement between MLB and NPB goes live, Masahiro Tanaka's Japanese club might keep him. That would have a huge impact on offseason moves around the league.
Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball are reportedly close to an agreement on a new posting system that would cap the fee at $20 million, but there is growing concern that the overhaul might result in the Rakuten Golden Eagles declining to post star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, according tomultiple reports.
Tanaka could be offered a nine-figure contract in addition to the posting fee, which likely wouldn't have been the case under the old system. The proposed agreement would direct more of the money Tanaka's way and less to his NPB club. That might steer teams away from posting their players in the future, an executive of one American League team told Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan.
If Tanaka's club decides to keep him off the market, the impact it would have on the MLB trade market could be huge. Teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers and others who would likely be the de facto front-runners on signing Tanaka might instead focus their attention on trying to acquire a pitcher such as the Rays' David Price, who is under team control for two more seasons, or another front-line starter.
Tanaka's potential unavailability may also place a higher premium on starting pitchers such as Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, both of whom remain on the free-agent market.
An agreement between Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball has been reached in order to establish a new posting system. There were multiple reports about what exactly the new deal will be, but reports seem to be coming out that will shed light on what will and what will not be a part of the posting process going forward.
The new system will include a maximum bid of $20 million and if multiple teams bid the max, the player will be able to negotiate with all of them. It means that Masahiro Tanaka will essentially be a free agent for everyone who pays a negotiating fee. Carrying over from the last agreement, the posting fee will still not count against the luxury tax, and only the team that signs him will have to pay the winning bid, everyone else will have their money returned.
The new agreement will not award exclusive negotiating rights to the team with the worst winning percentage in the event of a tie.
It was said that the Golden Eagles were opposed to this new deal, considering they were the ones that were projected to make $50-$60 million for posting their ace. They have since agreed to the terms of the new posting system, making it unanimous among the 12 NPB teams.
Details still need to be ironed out, but it looks like the Yankees will have to compete with just about every team in baseball if they want the best, and youngest, pitcher on the market. Making Tanaka an almost-unrestricted free agent doesn't necessarily mean the Yankees won't get him, but it means they won't get him at a reduced cost. They will have to offer a market, or even over-market, valued contract in order to beat out the Dodgers, Cubs, Mariners, and anyone else with money to spend. Basically, despite their lack of MLB experience, Japanese players will now get contracts like they do. The Yankees still need him, though.
UPDATE:
Rakuten Eagles president spoke to media in Japan Thu and said they will have internal discussions to see if it makes sense to post Tanaka.
Earlier this week, the ZiPS projections were released for the upcoming Red Sox season. There were a few things that stood out on the first look through the list.
Being the huge nerd that I am, one of my favorite parts of the offseason is when the various projections start to roll out. Of the many systems that are released every year, the two best in my opinion are PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus, and ZiPS, which is made and released by Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs and ESPN. The latter was released this week for the Red Sox, and includes the projections for A.J. Pierzynski on the Red Sox. Just as a reminder for those not as familiar with these projections, they are not the same as predictions. They are reached using vast amounts of past data, but players can and always will outperform their projections, or underperform based on them. With that in mind, there were a few things that stood out to me about this year's crop of ZiPS projections for the Red Sox.
SPLOOSH. Every time Szymborski runs his projections, he does so for the remainder of any player's career. Of course, with someone with as little data as Bogaerts has to this point, future projections are less reliable. Still, though, when you see Troy Tulowitzki as the most comparable player for Bogaerts moving forward, it's impossible not to get excited. When Tulowitzki comes to mind, it's easy to first think of his injury history and inability to stay on the field. Even with the injuries, though, the Rockies' shortstop is still regarded as easily the best shortstop in the game, and having your team's top prospect be so closely compared to him is extremely exciting. He has racked up 3689 plate appearances over parts of eight seasons, and has hit to a career 121 wRC+, with very good defense at the most premium position on the diamond, giving him 29.2 fWAR in that time. In five of those eight seasons, he has been worth at least 5.0 fWAR. If we are looking at that type of career from Bogaerts eight years from now, the future looks bright for the Red Sox at the shortstop position.
This, to me, was the most fascinating part of the entire projection. We've heard so much over the past few months about the tremendous amount of starting pitching depth in the system, but that has been mainly due to the guys on the major-league roster, plus Allen Webster and Anthony Ranaudo. It's not that we don't think about Barnes - he may have the highest ceiling of all the guys at AAA - it's just that he seems to be the furthest away. Behind the six major-league starters, Brandon Workman, Webster and Ranaudo, Barnes is seemingly the 10th guy on the starting pitcher depth chart. And yet, in this projection, he is basically equal to Felix Doubront, and is already projected to be a league-average pitcher. Now, it's important to remember that projections are dealing strictly with a player's minor-league numbers, and knows nothing about their actual development. This is important because Barnes' secondary pitches likely need a bit more work than the other pitchers. Still, though, this is highly encouraging. ZiPS projects the UConn product to strikeout 8.4 batters per nine innings while walking 3.5, and to pitch to a 100 ERA- and 98 FIP-. In comparison, Doubront is projected for a 101 ERA- and 99 FIP-. If they both spent all year in the majors, I wouldn't expect the results to end up like that - Doubront is the better pitcher right now - but this projection definitely has me a bit higher on Barnes than I was last week.
One of the most interesting storylines for the 2014 season, in my opinion, is whether or not Daniel Nava can come close to repeating his performance from 2013. Towards the end of last season, I wrote that I did not believe his season was much of a fluke, and I still believe that. However, I'm not sure ZiPS agrees with me on this one. They still peg him for solid offensive production, with a .257/.344/.384 line, good for a 98 OPS+. That's a pretty big drop off from his .303/.385/.445 line from this year, and it's more than just regressing his .352 batting average on balls in play. ZiPS is also projecting a career-worst 8.8 walk-rate, as well as a .127 Isolated Power, following two seasons of .140+ ISOs. While I wouldn't expect another .300 batting average this year, or a 127 wRC+, I would not be at all surprised if Nava outperformed this projection and hit to a wRC+ somewhere in the 110-119 range.
The Red Sox' interest in bringing Jacoby Ellsbury back may have been even lower than we thought.
Of course, the biggest story from this week is Jacoby Ellsbury's departure to the Yankees, and how the Red Sox will replace his production. Assuming Bradley is the man to take Ellsbury's spot in center field, ZiPS thinks Boston will have to look elsewhere for an offensive replacement. For the 2014 season, Ellsbury was projected for a .287/.340/.437 line (109 OPS+) for the Red Sox, while Bradley is projected for just a .245/.322/.375 (89 OPS+) line. Now, I would expect Bradley to be a better hitter than this, as his struggles at the major-league level seemed normal for a guy who was rushed to the bigs. With that being said, I still think he'll be a slightly below-average hitter. If the Red Sox are going to make up for the offensive production of Ellsbury (who I also think will outperform those projections this year, for what it's worth), third base is the most likely spot it will happen.
I don't think anyone needed more proof that David Ortiz is an ageless wonder. But if you did, ZiPS is projecting the 38-year-old to have another All-Star season at the plate in 2014. They have him pegged for a .296/.386/.552 line, good for a team-best (by far) 151 OPS+. The fact that the projection systems still expect him to be playing like this at this age is incredible, considering that they do take aging-curves into account. Luckily for the Red Sox, aging curves matter much less for the elite players like Ortiz. For a team that could potentially be lacking in serious power once again, especially if Mike Napoli doesn't return, Ortiz's power bat can always be counted on. And if you're curious on what the DH's top career comparison is, it's George Brett. He was an alright player during his career.
Those are just a few of the things that stood out to me on my first look through the ZiPS projections for the 2014 Red Sox. There are still a lot of other things to look at - both encouraging and discouraging. If you find yourself with some time on your hands, check out some of the other projections, especially for the prospects.
The age old question: can we truly gauge trades and signings in the moment?
With the onslaught of action across Major League Baseball in the last ten days, Beyond the Box Score has written detailed analysis on the majority of the transactions we have seen. In each piece, our writers have reasoned and presented their thoughts before finally drawing a conclusion as to whether the move was right or not. What I think divides some people, however, is the question of when we should actually be evaluating these deals?
Some will argue that grading a deal in the present is foolish, especially a multi-year contract, or a trade that involves prospects who have yet to reach the big leagues. That seems reasonable -- for example, how can we truly know who got the better end of the Doug Fister trade until we see how Fister pitches in Washington and how Robbie Ray develops for the Tigers? Outside of keeping up with the news, it almost seems foolish that we spend so much time analyzing transactions that will play out in front of us over the next several years.
Neil Weinberg gauges the process behind Oakland's acquisition of outfielder Craig Gentry.
Then again, I'm not a big believer in evaluating decisions by the end results. I'd much rather judge a contract or a trade based on the process, which means instant examination. Maybe this is just the (former) gambler in me speaking, but those of you that play poker understand that calling $100 into a $20 pot on a diamond flush draw is a poor bet, regardless if the river card is the nine of diamonds or not. The smart money says to throw that hand away and play another day, even though you can see after the fact that you would have collected the pot.
Transactions are no different. We can't predict what will happen with players four or five years into the future with any real certainty, so we shouldn't wait to see if teams hit their proverbial flushes. Instead, we should use the information that we do have to measure the process -- a term that KC fans might hear in their sleep at this point.
That said, it's undoubtedly true that we know next to nothing compared to the big league clubs making these moves. They have access to mounds of data and information that we'll never have the privilege to see, a point that our own Julian Levine made when talking about process and results just over a year ago:
There's a wealth of data out there -- on Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, et al. -- and I'd hate to understate its value. The scope of information freely available to the public is astounding. But it pales in comparison to what front offices have. They have a much broader understanding of all of this, whether through scouting or FIELDf/x technologies or other various sources. And we'd be arrogant and ignorant to think otherwise.
We owe it to ourselves to realize and recognize just how little we know. This means giving teams the benefit of the doubt. This means approaching analyses with a level of calculated uncertainty. And this means keeping an open mind.
But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't use the information that we do have to weight transactions in the moment. What it does mean, is that maybe we need to view them in a more Bayesian manner. Transactions, like most pieces of life, aren't black and white, they're just ranges of probabilities. Bayes's theorem allows us to embrace that uncertainty and update our assessment as we add new information to come to a conclusion. Yesterday I said that the Yankees decision to sign Jacoby Ellsbury was a good one, but, more correctly, I should have said I think New York made a sound bet because I think it's 65% likely that Ellsbury outplays the contract and 15% likely that he's roughly worth the money with just a one in five shot at not producing enough to warrant the money.
In any event, the evaluation of transactions should come at the time the deal is signed, not years down the road. And if you disagree with that, well, I'd love to play cards with you some time.
The Yankees have signed Jacoby Ellsbury over the next seven years, meaning his home ballpark has gone from Fenway Park to Yankee Stadium, two very distinct ballparks for very different reasons. Fenway, of course, is known for the Green Monster in left field, and the Stadium is known for the short porch in right field. Both parks play very differently, so how will it effect Ellsbury's hitting game?
The Yankees' new center fielder might be a left-handed hitter, but he isn't a drastic pull hitter. He's actually hit to all fields throughout his career, so on paper his game won't exactly be hurt by moving to New York. He has a 128 wRC+ when hitting to the pull side, but he also has a 134 wRC+ when hitting the opposite way. He does have a slightly lower 113 wRC+ when hitting to center field, so that might noticeably be effected in New York, since center is deeper.
Ellsbury is basically trading an advantage in one field and moving it to another. In Fenway he was helped out by a shallow left field and a giant wall. That's all going away, as left field is now 100 feet deeper in Yankee Stadium and doesn't include a wall that basically turns everything into a double. What he's gaining, though, is a right field that is 100 feet shorter, which might actually help his power numbers even more than the Green Monster could.
While his ability to hit singles anywhere in the field won't change, his power ability to left might. He won't have a wall to hit doubles off of, though some of them might have been high enough to get out anywhere else, however, Yankee Stadium right field could help him with his home run totals. In his career, Ellsbury has only hit two home runs to left field, while hitting 55 to right field. To give you a visual representation of how left field might hurt him and right field will certainly help him, I edited his spray chart from 2011 through 2013:
As you can see, anything close to the left field wall in Fenway is going to be in the middle of the outfield in New York, so the chances of an out are increased. Right field is so short at Yankee Stadium, compared to in Boston, that he will likely add several more home runs a year while also increasing the amount of fly balls that come close to the wall. Those can drop in for a double or sneak over the wall for a patented Yankee Stadium cheapie.
The thing we will see is how well he really is at hitting the other way when those off-the-wall doubles turn into long fly balls to nowhere. It's obvious that his power numbers could fluctuate depending on where he hits the ball, however, Ellsbury thrives as a singles hitter, so he'll be getting on base no matter where he is.
With a surplus of left-handed batters, Jeff Baker would make sense in a utility type of role.
The Yankees, once again, made a massive splash, as they signed Jacoby Ellsbury, a left-handed bat, to a seven-year deal on Tuesday. Later in the night, they agreed to a deal with Kelly Johnson, another left-handed bat, to a one-year contract. This is coming from a team who already sported plenty of left-handed bats, thus adding a right-handed bat would make plenty of sense.
Enter Jeff Baker. Baker is just a career .267/.321/.440 hitter with a 96 wRC+ in over 1600 plate appearances. However, he does hit lefties very well; he's a career .298/.353/.522, 128 wRC+ hitter in 827 plate appearances against southpaws. Last season with the Rangers, Baker demolished lefties to the tune of a 183 wRC+ in over 100 PA's. And, in the last three years, Baker is a 124 wRC+ hitter against them.
As an added bonus, Baker provides versatility. In his career, Baker has seen time at the corner outfield spots, first, second, and third base. This doesn't come without any caveats, however, as he grades out as at least a below-average defender according to the respective advanced defensive metrics. At the same time, Mark Reynolds, who most want the Yankees to re-sign, is a complete disaster at third base and can't at least fake it in the outfield like Baker can.
Assuming the Yankees re-sign Robinson Cano (and I feel like that's a bigger "if" as the days continue to pass), Baker wouldn't have to see much of second base at all, but could see time at third base in place of Kelly Johnson if they decide to platoon him (73 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2011) or a corner outfield spot if they want to platoon Gardner (101 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2011) or even Ellsbury (96 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2011). He could also see some time at DH, of course. Finally, Baker, in theory, wouldn't cost a whole lot, as he made just less than $2 million last year.
If acquired, the Yankees would presumably cut ties with Vernon Wells. He was brought in with the purpose that he would hit left-handed pitching, but is simply incompetent in that regard, to go along with everything else. Adding a lefty masher like Jeff Baker and losing a complete waste of a roster spot like Vernon Wells is the very definition of addition by subtraction and is definitely something the Yankees should look into.
Can Jacoby Ellsbury live up to his new free agent contract with the Yankees? Here's a look at his career in context.
The New York Yankees opened up the bank vault this week, snagging outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury from the Boston Red Sox for seven years, $153 million. Is this a good move, or will the Yankees regret the contract, at least the back end of it? Let's look at Ellsbury's career in context for some clues.
Jacoby Ellsbury was drafted in the first round out of Oregon State in 2005, 23rd overall, with the pick the Red Sox got from the Angels for losing Orlando Cabrera as a free agent. A star in college, he'd hit .406/.495/.582 with 26 steals, and was expected to move quickly through the system due to his combination of tools and polished skills.
He hit .317/.418/.432 in 35 games for Lowell in the New York-Penn League after signing, swiping 23 bases in 26 attempts, while posting a +28 percent OPS in a pitcher's league. I gave him a Grade B in the 2006 book. The main question for Ellsbury was how much power he would develop.
Assigned to Class A Wilmington to begin 2006, Ellsbury hit .299/.379/.418 in that notorious pitcher's park, with 25 steals in 34 attempts over 61 games. Promoted to Double-A at midseason, he hit .308/.387/.434 with 16 steals in 15 games. His combination of speed, plate discipline, and contact hitting ability was highly impressive, and he drew good reviews for his defense as well. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2007 book, slotting as the Number 21 hitting prospect.
Projecting his major league future, I wrote "pencil him in as a .280/.350/.400 hitter with 30-steal potential in the short run, escalating to something like .300/.380/.430 at his peak."
Ellsbury began 2007 with Double-A Portland, hitting a stunning .452/.518/.644 with eight steals in his first 17 games. Promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, he hit .298/.360/.380 with 33 steals in 87 games. He ended the season in the majors, with a .353/.394/.509 mark in 33 games for Boston, swiping nine bases without being caught. Although he didn't show a lot of home run power, everything else was there, and I gave him a Grade A- in the 2008 book, ranking him as the Number Eight hitting prospect in baseball.
His debut may have caused some unrealistic expectations, and some people actually seemed disappointed by his 2008 rookie season: he hit .280/.336/.394 (close to my original prophecy from '07), though he led the American League with 50 steals and his defense helped push his WAR to 4.2. In 2009 he hit .301/.355/.415 with a league-leading 70 steals and a 2.4 WAR.
A collision and subsequent rib injury limited Ellbury to just 18 games in 2010. He roared back in 2011 with a stunning .321/.376/.552 season with 39 steals, 46 doubles, 32 homers, and 105 RBI, posting a 9.4 WAR in combination with his defense. Unfortunately a shoulder injury limited him to just 74 games in 2012, compromising his hitting skills and leading to a .271/313/.370 line, 1.5 WAR.
Healthy enough for 134 games in 2013, he hit .298/.355/.426 with nine homers and 31 doubles, leading the league with 52 stolen bases, posting a 5.8 WAR.
Overall, in 715 games Ellsbury is a .297/.350/.439 hitter, with 241 steals and a career wRC+ of 109. However, his line is spiked by a 149 mark in '11. Overall, he has a career WAR of 23.7.
When he was a prospect, I was an optimist about Ellbury's power development, thinking that he could get into the 15-homer range with maturity. I never expected the 46 doubles, 32-homer outburst of 2011 and it seems unlikely to me that he will repeat that. Overall, Ellsbury has lived up to expectations he generated as a prospect, exceeding them at times, though he's lost large parts of two seasons to injuries.
So where does he stand historically?
Through age 29, Ellsbury's Bill James Sim Score list comes out as
Interestingly, Tommy Holmes had an out-of-context power spike at age 27, slugging .577 with a league-leading 28 homers. Granted, that was playing diluted competition due to World War Two in 1945, but the parallel remains and he wasn't the only one. Phil Bradley had a strong power spike at age 26, hitting a career-high 26 homers. Carl Furillo had a big power spike at age 27. Pete Fox had a significant power spike at age 26. Griffey Sr. spiked power at age 27. So did Victorino. Ellsbury's case was extreme, but there were precedents.
Is Ellsbury a good investment for the long-term? How will he age into his 30s?
Holmes remained an effective hitter until age 33. Bradley fell apart at 31. Furillo remained above average until age 36, though he become more of a power guy and much less of a speed guy. Gonzalez fell apart at 33. Kelly became a bench player/platoon guy by 32 but still hit .300 at age 34, his last full season. Fox remained effective through age 35 but that includes playing against weak pitching during the war. Victorino and Crisp are still going in their early 30s. Griffey Sr. remained valuable all the way through age 41.
Ellsbury drew Kenny Lofton comparisons when he was a prospect, and that also seems like a good comp. Lofton also spiked power at age 27, lasted all the way through age 40, and finished with a career .299/.372/.423 line, 110 wRC+, with an excellent 66.2 career WAR.
There are risks with any player type. Ellsbury is certainly no guarantee, and one serious knee injury could wreck his value in a hurry. At these prices, teams are betting big on areas where some rough assumptions have to be made. But, I think the performance of Ellsbury-like players should at least lend some comfort to teams considering a big contract for him this winter. This player type has historically aged pretty well, and it’s simply not true that they become useless as soon as their speed goes. Ellsbury won’t be an elite defender and baserunner forever, but there’s value in his bat too, and the total package looks to project as a pretty nice piece for the foreseeable future.
That seems reasonable to me.
So, the bottom line: the historical precedents indicate that Ellsbury has a good shot at remaining a very productive and valuable player for the first half of the contract. Once he gets past 33 the risks escalate quickly, although there are some precedents that were effective up to age 40.
I'd have to assume that the Yankees are aware of all of this and are willing to take the risk that the second half of the contract could be troublesome, if the first half helps them win a World Series.
Photo Courtesy of Jamie Squire
