Is one of the Yankees' platoon options about to be taken off the table?
As the offseason drags on, the Yankees might be looking to add one more infielder. While they've already signed Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson, there was some potential that they might bring back Mark Reynolds to platoon at third base in case Alex Rodriguez is suspended for some (or all) of next season. Well, according to Mark Feinsand of the Daily News, Reynolds may not be an option for much longer. On Monday, Feinsand wrote, "The Yankees have been engaged with Mark Reynolds about a possible return, but a source said the power-hitting infielder appears close to signing with another team outside the Bronx."
While Reynolds is certainly not great, he does bring a good bit of power from the right side of the plate. Overall last year, he hit .220/.306/.393 with 21 home runs and 67 RBI (with the Yankees, Reynolds batted .236, hitting six of those home runs and knocking in 19 of those runs in 36 games) and, if combined with Johnson, Reynolds could give the Yankees quite a power hitting platoon at third. However, Reynolds would prove to be a liability in the field, as he put up a -5.7 UZR in just over 400 innings between the Yankees and the Indians.
As things currently stand, Johnson seems to be the Yankees' main option at third, leaving Brian Roberts to man second. Johnson hit .276/.235/.305 with 16 homers and 52 RBI in 118 games last season for the Rays, displaying some decent pop from the left side of the plate. He hits reasonably well against righthanders (.244/.335/.424 over his career, with a 103 wRC+), and while he's posted nearly an identical 105 wRC+ against lefties, he doesn't have nearly as much power against them (none of his 16 homers in 2013 came against left-handed pitching). Letting the right-handed Reynolds hit against lefties (.238/.359/.475 against them in his career with a 119 wRC+) would help them both maximize their strengths and provide a decent offensive combination.
The Yankees do have other options. The newly-signed Dean Anna has played second base and shortstop during his minor league career, but could potentially be switched to third if necessary. Still, he's completely unproven in the major leagues, as he's spent his entire six-year career in the minor leagues. He did however show some promise last year, hitting .331/.410/.482 for the San Diego Padres' Triple-A squad. The Yankees could also sign Stephen Drew. Drew had a solid year last season, batting .253/.333/.443, and is about the best infielder left on the market. However, as Tanya wrote, Drew is apparently awaiting "clarity" from the Yankees, perhaps on many games he might play with A-Rod's status up in the air.
While these options exist, are the Yankees going to regret it if Reynolds signs elsewhere?
With the news that Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka is going to be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles, there's no better time to actually look at the type of pitcher he is. Too often in sports it seems fans get overexcited about possible acquisitions to their team without ever bothering to find out what said player brings to the table. With very little accessible video of Japanese players on the internet the hype for these potential imports usually reaches pretty silly levels, leading fans to believe that the next Justin Verlander is coming to the MLB anytime a player is posted.
Of course I'm no Japanese baseball expert myself, but let's try and take a look at what Tanaka could bring to the table for the lucky team who wins this sweepstakes. The 25-year-old right hander from the Itami area of Osaka has been pitching professionally since the age of 18, when he started 28 games for Rakuten. There's always going to be concern about the miles on a pitcher's arm when he's had such heavy workloads so far in his career, with 1315 innings already under his belt.
Here's a nice snapshot of Tanaka's performance thus far in his professional career:
Tanaka stands 6'2" and weighs in a 205 pounds, which is comparable to a pitcher like Brett Cecil. Tanaka's delivery is similar to former Japanese import Yu Davish and has no obvious problems, although people have said his wide stride causes his pitches to have a flatter plane than you would expect from someone 6'2".
As most Japanese hurlers do, Tanaka throws a multitude of different pitches and has the ability to locate with all of them. His fastball sits low-90's and is pretty flat, often thrown up in the zone. That might be a concern in the major leagues as power hitters will be able to launch that high pitch into orbit. His two-seamer is similar to the shuuto thrown by most Japanese pitchers which is also known as the "reverse slider". His splitter is a big whiff pitch and runs in on a right-handed hitters' hands as you can see at the 36 second mark in the video:
Tanaka's slider is arguably his best off-speed pitch and he throws it about a quarter of the time. The hard slider is effective against hitters on both sides of the plate and is easily thrown for strikes. There's a ton of sliders in this video as it's Tanaka's favourite pitch to throw when he needs a whiff:
To round up his repertoire the right-hander also mixes in a more straight changeup, a loopy curve, and a rarely seen cutter. Like Darvish, Tanaka pounds the strike zone with a lethal combination of different pitches and while the stuff is not as electric stuff as the Texas Rangers ace, the command of it is pinpoint accurate. As the report I linked to early points out, a more accurate comparison to Tanaka might be Hiroki Kuroda of the New York Yankees as both pitchers rely on their "reverse sliders" and splitters to get hitters out, while their four-seam fastballs don't blow anyone away.
Personally I believe Tanaka will be a fine number two pitcher in North America, but he will have to rely on his command to get him out of innings. The chances for the Blue Jays to land him are very slim considering how many teams will be willing to drop huge amounts of money on the Japanese pitcher and Alex Anthopoulos' hesitancy to take huge risks on free agents. It would not surprise me in the least if he went to New York due to their need of a starter, the Yankees' limitless cash, and the familiarity of having fellow countryman Hiroki Kuroda already playing there.
The Yankees will have a lot of new faces next year. Which of them will you be pulling for the most?
The Yankees' process of team building is a unique one when it comes to getting attached to particular players. Their best prospects don't seem to stick around much and they're constantly adding new and expensive parts to the roster. With the departure of Robinson Cano, there aren't a whole lot of homegrown talents to get behind aside from the venerable Derek Jeter. So we find ourselves looking to get behind those fancy new free agents. Personally, I've seen buying the jersey or merchandise of a brand new player as an investment of sorts. You're betting that that particular player will not only perform well, but that you'll enjoy watching the player. For example, I bought Alex Rodriguez's and Mark Teixeira's jerseys a short while after they were acquired with obviously mixed results.
So in another meaningless offseason thought experiment, I wondered which of the new Yankees is most likely to be counted among the O'Neills, Cones and Mussinas as a "mercenary" turned fan favorite.
Pros: A perennial All-Star and possible Hall of Famer. Is replacing Chris Stewart. Might be a crazy person in a good way. Who doesn't love a great catcher?
Cons: Looks terrifying without facial hair. May fight people on the field. Might be a crazy person in a bad way.
I would say that McCann is the safest bet of the Yankees new players to find success in New York, and that's usually the determining factor in a player's popularity around these parts. He has the track record and his intensity should play well with the media and a lot of fans.
Pros: Ditched the evil Red Sox for New York. Fast players are (generally) exciting to watch. Should park a few homers into the cheap seats in right.
Cons: The Red Sox stink is still quite fresh. Comes in with "fragile" label and will be torn apart after his first DL stint. Makes the most money of the new guys.
I would venture to say Ellsbury has the biggest bust potential of the big three, so it's hard to project what the fans will think of him . Batting .290 and playing great defense is probably not going to be enough for most people. If he can return to something close to the form he displayed in 2011 he'll be the best of the bunch and probably the most popular.
Pros: Like McCann is a potential Hall of Famer and established star. People love guys with the "clutch" label. Is the best pure hitter the Yankees acquired. Took (slightly) less money to come here.
Cons; Another freshly acquired "old" guy which fans seem to hate. Not the same dynamic athlete he used to be.
Beltran's only signed for three years, so he's less likely to have the time to cement himself as a Yankee great. But it's easy to get behind a guy who's had the sort of career he's had. And a player that can still mash like Beltran can is certain to garner plenty of support.
"Other":
Pros: Maybe Brian Roberts will surprise us all and be good again!
Cons: Most of these guys aren't particularly talented.
Short of getting a game-winning hit in a World Series, it's unlikely any of these guys will go down in Yankees lore. You might have to get your Kelly Johnson jersey custom-made, which is inconvenient.
I'll be very interested to see the mix of new names on the backs of fans at Yankee Stadium come next season. I assume it will still mostly be Rivera and Jeter jerseys, but new faces can still be fun in their own way. So who of the new guys will you be throwing your support behind the most? And bonus question: will you be buying any of their jerseys/merchandise for next season?
Under a blood red sky..........A crowd has gathered, black and white..........Arms entwined, the chosen few..........The newspapers says, says..........Say it's true, it's true..........We can break through..........Though torn in two..........We can be one
Here on the final weekend of 2013, with Hanukkah and Christmas now behind us, we have one last moment for peaceful reflection. This is mine:
I had an epiphany recently. I am watching pro football and the game is close at the end, the team a few points behind is just a few yards outside the end zone with about 1 minute left to play and in need of a touchdown. On two of the four scoring attempts there were clear defensive pass interference violations that were not called. The broadcast analyst even makes the comment that, "in the first quarter that is pass interference, but you don’t make that call at this point in the game."
And then it hit me, a fundamental beauty within the architecture of the game of baseball is that the same rules are applied, with the same intent towards accuracy, at all moments of each contest. Baseball is the one major sport in America wherein the officials don’t "swallow their whistle", and not because baseball umpires don’t use whistles in the first place. This means that, even in the most critical of moments and in the critical of games, the officiating provides an equal opportunity for heroic performances out of ALL of the participants on the field of play. And there is, in my opinion, a reason for this. It is because the rules themselves, despite all their complexity (or perhaps because of that) have removed much of the sloppiness that arises out of human competition. In baseball the action is well framed, well defined, and still provides unlimited opportunity for athletic excellence and growth. Baseball, at the end of the day, is our most perfect sport. Perhaps not the most perfect for all methods of presentation, but most perfect in, and of, itself
Even if you are a lover of other sports, you come here in fellowship to embrace baseball. As such, you share with your brothers and sisters a relationship with something far different than what is found in the existence of our real world. For this moment, however extraordinary that reality may be, I choose to let that world sail on through the heavens and reflect on the beauty of our creation.
Thank you one and all for your time and attention this past year. I have enjoyed entertaining those hardy few of you who have braved the weekend hours in order to gather with me and celebrate...baseball! I wish nothing but peace and prosperity upon you and your loved ones for 2014. And may this be the year that the flags fly again!
Can'a'hava Tanaka?: Yup, he's posted. Rakuten didn't like it, but the other 12 teams certainly couldn't wait to bounce Tanaka out of NPB, like, frikkin' yesterday, so they outvoted Rakuten and accepted the new posting system of MLB (a move that some team will regret in the future, I predict). So now what? Well, Tanaka has immediately gone out and gotten himself a domestic agent: the very guy who took Zack Greinke over to the Dodgers. So, yeah, that could have started out a little better. But where it gets downright silly is where you have media outlets feeding the Dodger frenzy by placing the team - one that already has Greinke AND Clayton Kershaw AND Hyun-Jin Ryu AND Dan Haren AND Josh Beckett, on any short list titled "Who needs Masahiro Tanaka the most?" Don't be fooled. We are at the top of that writer's list only because "A" comes first in the alphabet.
Trout Porn: Philadelphia is getting religion. Philly.com fills up some web space by gushing over the fact that Mike Trout fairly destroyed any notion of a sophomore slump. A hybrid of Mickey Mantle and Bo Jackson, the kid from Millville, N.J., crashed onto the baseball world like a meteorite two springs ago. But Trout, who approaches a baseball game like a linebacker sizing up a tiny halfback, hasn't slowed since his dynamic rookie year.
Questions, Questions: Alden Gonzalez racks up a Top 10 List of Questions for the 2014 LA Angels. Pitching comes in at #10. And #6. And #4. Reasonable, I suppose. My focus is on his #3: "How many prime Pujols years remain?" If ever the Angels were going to get an MVP-caliber season out of Pujols, this is the one. In 2012, he was adjusting to new surroundings and the expectations of a $240 million contract, going homerless in his first 27 games before rebounding profoundly. In 2013, he dealt with plantar fasciitis and batted .258/.330/.437 before his season ended after 99 games. At full health, the Angels expect Pujols to be among the game's best hitters once again in 2014. They'll deal with the seven other years -- and the $189 million he'll be paid throughout -- one at a time.
Chris Volstad: Easy come, easy go. My theory is that Jerry Dipoto's off-season plan is to sign as many arms as he can get away with, however crappy they have been in recent memory, in the hope that enough of them show sufficient respectability at this time in their lives to build an acceptable pitching corps. Chris Volstad fit that theory, coming from Colorado and a filler candidate for at least long relief. Well, he fit that theory all too well, becoming one of those signings to crap out. Volstad has chosen to head to Korea instead.
Buy Stuff - Crazy-ass Baseball Finds On the Internet:
This Date In Baseball History:1874 - The first documented baseball game is played in Cuba, but is called due to darkness with the score sitting at 51-9..........1941 - Two weeks ago I gave you the background as to how the franchise of Atlanta became the Braves. Today marks the date in 1941 when Chief Nokahoma is born..........2001 -The Yankees move their broadcasts to WCBS-AM (which just concluded after the 2013 season) initiating the YES Network, causing a great ripple upon the waters of sports media revenue..........2001 -The Mets take Mo Vaughan off our hands, sending back to the Halos Kevin Appier. Appier will play a decent role on the Halos' WS Champ team with a season of 113 ERA+, just months after Vaughan will blast Troy Percival and the Angels with "Ain't none of them done a damn thing in this damn game, bottom line. They ain't got no flags hanging at friggin' Edison Field, so the hell with them." As you know, as soon as Vaughan was gone, we started flyin' flags!
Ernie Lanigan comes onto the scene in the late 1800's as a consumer of the daily and weekly baseball stats, growing up a stat nerd while staving off pneumonia and other pulmonary issues. He had a lot of time on his youthful hands, and dedicated that time to not only consuming stats, but calculating his own out of what was published. Ernie would later confess that he really did not like baseball, and did not like attending games. It was purely the stats that interested him.
Being well-connected, Lanigan was able to take full advantage of his uncle's new weekly publication The Sporting News, and by the time he was 15 he was one of their copy boys, focused on baseball stats. This granted him access and experience and paved the way to join The New York Press as baseball editor at the age of 34 (besting Grantland Rice for that spot, by the way).
His first major impact concerns RBI's. By the time Lanigan gains influence, RBI's had fallen out of favor. he whole notion of RBI's did not surface until 1879/1880, and were picked up and championed by Henry Chadwick as even more important than player hits and runs scored. For a while RBI's were huge. By 1991 the National League mandated that scorekeepers record RBI's. But the obvious hole in their value was know immediately: not all batters have equal chances to drive in runs, and the mandate was quickly rescinded when the MSM interjected against the silliness of RBI counting. Yes, you read that correctly: at one time the Mainstream Sports Media realized that RBI's were folly, and advocated passionately against them!
Lanigan also dug deeper into players' contributions on offense. It was Lanigan that came up with the idea to keep track of baserunners were Caught Stealing, and the correlating defensive gem of catching runners stealing ("Thrown Out By Catcher" back then). Remember, we are still in the first decade of the 1900's here!
R.I.P. Paul Blair:Paul Blair passed away last night at the age of 69. Some day we are going to have really, really good methods to objectively determine defensive prowess in baseball. That advancement comes far too late to lift Blair up high enough in the firmament of outfield stars. From 1967 through 1975 Paul Blair was a Top 10 dWAR contributor in all of MLB for five of those 10 years. Of course, spending less than 1/10 of his days in pinstripes doesn't prevent the NY Daily News from bemoaning Blair's passing as the loss of a "Former Yankee". It's all about them. Sigh.
Oakland: The Oakland A's still have much better computers than we do. Or anybody else in baseball, as it turns out. Baseball Prospectus dives into the engine behind Oakland's recent curiosity of success, and has a working theory. If you are not a BP subscriber, Deadspin serves as your escort. The Secret Sauce? Fly-ball-to-ground-ball ratios.
Let's contextualize Oakland's outlier ways: 60 percent of their plate appearances were taken by fly-ball hitters, who by definition compose 16 percent of the league. No other team in the past nine years has touched 45 percent. Beane's roster was so ground-allergic that only 0.8 percent of their plate appearances were taken by "ground-ball hitters." That's not just a concentrated effort to target fly balls. That's a mission statement.
From my seat, the most interesting aspect of this is the fact that Beane loaded up on fly ball hitters in reaction to the glorification of ground ball pitchers everywhere. A certain cache has come with dismissing pitchers' long-term effectiveness because they are "fly ball pitchers" (pitchers who get their outs via the fly ball instead of the ground ball). As it turns out, the very thing that any staff needs to counter the current Secret Sauce of Oakland are...fly ball pitchers. The article specifically notes the dominance of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer (although they miss our own Jered Weaver, another notable "fly ball pithcer", has hs allowed on 2 runs in 6 games ove rthe past two seasons to Oakland).
Baseball Biz: By now we know that Major league Baseball is awash with huge revenues. More than $8 billion in revenues for 2013 alone. That money comes directly from you and me, so we really should be crying too much about that data point. No, it's THE OTHER data points that we should be crying about, because those come from you and me, too. This past week Bloomberg went into gory details about how these same owners come knocking on our doors pleading for our money to build their money-making machines. "It’s an albatross that hangs around our necks," said Portune, who has dealt with the cost for almost 13 years in office. "Every year it forces us to either come up with more revenue or take away from spending for other things the county needs."
This sordid practice goes back quite a long time, it turns out. Here is a deep dive into the funding of the now-defunct Candlestick Park. But you know what? Our pockets are not just getting picked to build MLB stadia. Oh hell no! This goes on with hundreds and hundreds of Minor League parks as well. "If taxpayers are supporting a stadium because they believe it'll help their city socially and culturally, then fine," Zimbalist said. "If they're doing it because they've been sold a bill of goods that it'll be a boost to the economy, then no, it's not a good expenditure of funds."
And now, being the full service weekend linkage institution that we are, here is the obligatory moment we take out of each Friday...for beer...
(In this most festive time of year, Beer Holidays are few and far between. Come on, face it! It's New Years friggin' EVE!!! You don't need anything additional here, folks...Enjoy the bonuses!)
Friday: Zippo
Saturday: Zippo
Sunday: Zippo
BEER PUZZLE OF THE WEEK: True or False? Sam Adams Triple Bock has an incredibly high alcohol content of 17.5% [The answer to last week's puzzle question is: Head augmentation and retention.]
2.000 Regular Season Plate Appearances as an Angel - but all there is to talk about is one swing...
#40 - SCOTT SPIEZIO, 1B
First we have to look at two separate Scott Spiezios - The man who had exactly 2,000 Plate Appearances for the club and the man who showed up for the 2002 playoffs looking to break a curse.
Angels General Manager Bill Stoneman signed Scott Spiezio as one of his first acts on the job. The four year, eight million dollar contract was back-loaded, ensuring Speez of plenty of rope. He had played a few infield positions for the Angels but, against all sabemetric wisdom (a Stoneman specialty), the team put him at DH and then primarily at1B and there he performed a little better than league average for four seasons: His OPS+ for his four seasons here: 99, 99, 115 and 105. The best one there, the 15% better than average was of course, his 2002 season... but again let's just talk about his regular seasons.
DH and 1B are power positions, so Scott Spiezio has no great contribution in those departments that correlate with him being an irreplaceable first baseman. He hit 58 HR (32nd most by a Halo) and his slugging percentage of .446 ranks 17th best in club history. HIs OP+ of 105 ranks in the Top 35 of players with more than 1,500 PA as Angels but the players he rnanks with who had similar numbers of PA with his numbers, players like Leroy Stanton and Juan Beniquez, Jack Howell and Carney Lansford... they all rank a lot lower than 40 on our Top 100 Angels countdown. So we can extrapolate that Speez earned a 30-50 place bump because of his production for the team when it absolutely mattered most.
Troy Glaus was the MVP of the 2002 World Series and Adam Kennedy was the MVP of that ALCS, but Scott Spiezio was the MVP of the 2002 postseason. And while his Game Six Home Run is the single most important swing in the history of the franchise, he delivered the numbers from the day the team walked into Yankee Stadium as afterthought underdogs until he was leaping in the air after Erstad made the catch.
Spiezio batted .400 with a 1.137 OPS in the four game ALDS against the Yankees. He batted .353 with a 1.068 OPS in the five game ALCS against the Twins. He batted .261 with a .922 OPS in his 30 Plate Appearances in the seven game World Series against the Giants. The most important PA in Angels history, though, was hitting a three-run home run in the bottom of the seventh inning with the Angels down 5-0. Sure it was only Game Six, and sure making a 5-0 game a 5-3 game with eight outs left only mathematically lifted the team's chances to win the elimination game by about ten percent. Sure, the Erstad homer to lead off the eighth and the Glaus double to put them ahead later that inning added more Win Probability to the night's contest and to the series, but the swing by Spiezio off of Felix Rodriguez in release of Riss Ortiz, sitting on the bench holding the game ball Dusty Baker had given him, that home run swing added more to the glory of the Angels franchise than anything in its history up to that point or since. And that is why Scott Spiezio, a lovable league average infielder is more than a Top 100 Angels, he a Top 40 Angel.
(2) Late-game '01 World Series heroics: 51% (3) Jeter's Flip Play: 49%
Third round
Founding-1959
(1) Gehrig's "Luckiest Man" speech vs. (2) Larsen's perfecto
1960-79
(4) Reggie homers thrice in '77 World Series Game 6 vs. (3) Bucky F'in Dent
1980-99
(1) Cone's perfecto vs. (3) Leyritz homer ties '96 World Series Game 6
2000-present
(1) Aaron Boone vs. (2) Late-game '01 World Series heroics
Click to embiggen
***
Yikes. It seems difficult to pick the greatest Yankees moment out of this bunch. Gehrig's speech, perfect games, World Series heroics, and Red Sox heartbreak reign supreme. The third round will kick off next week with the incredibly tough decision of choosing between two of the most iconic moments in baseball history: the "Luckiest Man" speech and the finale of arguably the greatest pitching performance of all-time.
Japan's latest export is looking for what might be the winter's largest pitcher contract.
Major League Baseball received one Christmas present early, when it was learned that NPB's Masahiro Tanaka would indeed be posted by his club, the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Thanks to the changes to the posting system, Tanaka is much more like a regular free agent than, say, Yu Darvish was, and because of this, he's in a position to demand more money. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, Tanaka is looking for at least $17 million per season.
In the past, one MLB team would win the bidding for a posted player, earning them exclusive negotiating rights. Now, though, a "release fee" is set by the player's team, and it cannot be more than $20 million, and also cannot be changed once it has been set. In Tanaka's case, the fee is $20 million, so any team willing to pay that amount to Rakuten upon agreeing to a contract is eligible to sign him. This does away with formal bidding, and opens up both the destination possibilities and the negotiating power of the posted player in question: that's how Tanaka, who has never thrown a pitch in MLB before, can ask for $17 million annually at minimum. Someone might very well give it to him over six years, pushing Tanaka's deal over $100 million. We're talking nearly twice what Yu Darvish received from the Rangers, but then again, whoever signs Tanaka won't be putting up over $50 million in posting fees in addition to the player cost.
It also helps that he posted a 1.27 ERA for Rakuten last year, and that his loftiest ERA since turning 20 is 2.50. While ERA isn't everything, and NPB's talent level is different than MLB's, there is no question he has thoroughly dominated the competition for years now, and should be successful when he transitions stateside.
The right-hander will be 25 years old in 2014, and it's clear that MLB thinks highly of him, considering they've stalled the entire free agent pitching market for weeks waiting to see if he would post or not: no one is happier to see Tanaka coming over than free agent starters Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Ervin Santana. Tanaka doesn't have to sign for quite some time, though, as teams have until 5 pm on January 24th to make a deal with him: that means the aforementioned trio of starters might have to wait until almost spring training to sign, unless teams (or their agents) get fidgety before then.
It's unknown who will land Tanaka, but the teams who come up repeatedly are the Yankees, Mariners, and Cubs. The Mariners would like a splash on the pitching side to go along with their impact signing of Robinson Cano, and a rotation fronted by Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Tanaka, and then prospects like Taijuan Walker and James Paxton could go a long way towards their efforts to contend, especially since, unlike a David Price trade, all Tanaka will cost is cash. The Yankees need help on the pitching side after filling some lineup holes: Hiroki Kuroda is still going strong, but he's also 39, CC Sabathia struggled in 2013, and Ivan Nova is being relied upon heavily given the questions at the back-end of the rotation. As for the Cubs, they could use Tanaka to secure the frontline starter they have been unable to develop, sign, or trade for during their rebuilding efforts. While a rebuilding Cubs club is maybe not the most ideal destination, they have the resources to make it worth Tanaka's time should they choose.
How does the current roster look against right-handed and left-handed pitching?
Platoons are becoming increasingly common across Major League Baseball as teams try to mix and match their lineups in order to gain every advantage possible. As Tom Tango showed in The Book, single-season, and even career, platoon-split statistics often hold little predictive value going forward. The sample sizes start to get dicey once you start slicing data from a single year. Tango laid out some rules-of-thumb for properly regressing platoon stats, which I applied to ZiPS and Oliver projections for players with a good shot of breaking camp with the Yankees. Here's how things shake out. All WAR projections are scaled to 600 plate appearances.
Catcher
Obviously, Brian McCann will be the Yankees’ primary catcher and, if everything goes according to plan, should be the man behind the plate for 120+ games next year. It’s not clear who McCann’s caddy will be, but the Yankees have no shortage of quality backup options in the triumvirate of Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine, and J.R. Murphy. Based purely on offensive ability, Cervelli -- who has a career .358 wOBA against lefties -- probably deserves a good chunk of playing time against southpaws. But McCann will get the nod most nights due to his defensive prowess, something that is not necessarily captured in WAR projections.
Infield
Assuming he’s healthy, the switch-hitting Mark Teixeira will man first on an everyday basis, and the projection systems suggest he can still get it done no matter who’s on the mound. Like Teixeira, Derek Jeter is also a lock to play nearly every day as long as he’s healthy. He'll spend some time at DH, but will likely play a good amount of shortstop, for better or for worse. Jeter has exhibited a pretty big platoon split over the course of his career and it's grown worse in recent years. Since 2010, Jeter’s hit .268/.326/.338 versus righties compared to .345/.405/.514 against southpaws. His 34% platoon split over that time is easily the highest among hitters with at least 600 plate appearances against both righties and lefties. The numbers seem to suggest that Jeter should take a seat when a righty is on the hill, but they don’t hold much weight when it comes to Derek Jeter -- he’ll be in the lineup as long as his body's up to it.
It’s hard to say how the balance of the infield will shake out without knowing the status of Alex Rodriguez. If he ends up avoiding suspension, he’ll play every day at either third or DH. Otherwise, second base, third base, and maybe even shortstop would fall to the likes of Kelly Johnson, Brian Roberts, Brendan Ryan, Eduardo Nunez, and Dean Anna. These guys could be somewhat productive if mixed and matched, but it’s doubtful that any of them are worthy of a full-time role. If A-Rod's not available, I would anticipate the Yankees adding another infielder into the mix. Seeing how their lefty infielders are Johnson -- who actually performs worse against right handed pitching, and Anna -- who has zero big league experience, a left-handed-hitting infielder would be ideal. Stephen Drew almost makes too much sense here.
Outfield
In Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, and Alfonso Soriano, the Yankees probably have four outfielders who are talented enough to play on a full-time basis. Until one of them inevitably lands on the DL, Ellsbury will man center full-time, while Gardner, Beltran, and Soriano will play nearly every day, triaging left field, right field, and DH. Soriano’s probably close to being a platoon player, but his big second half has earned him an everyday gig until he plays his way out of it.
Once the Brian Roberts and Matt Thornton signings are made official this week, Vernon Wells will almost certainly be out the door and Ichiro Suzuki may not be too far behind him. While both players might still be serviceable in a bench role, the Yankees’ 40-man roster is jam packed these days. It’s best to just cut bait with these guys in favor of someone like Zoilo Almonte, who could be just as mediocre in 2014, but has the potential to be better down the road.
A contract of that magnitude is unprecedented for someone who's never thrown a major-league pitch, but appears to be fait accompli given the current pitching market and the new posting rules. In the old days, when one team had exclusive negotiating rights with a posted player, it could hold the prospect of returning to Japan with significantly less money over the player's head. Now, however, you have multiple teams openly vying for the postee, shifting the leverage to Tanaka and whoever follows him.
Tanaka went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in 212 innings for Rakuten in 2013, and he's the youngest free-agent starter available by a full five years, so his high price makes a certain amount of sense. The scouting reports haven't been as high on the 25-year-old as they were on Yu Darvish when he made the jump across the Pacific, however, so it'll be interesting to see just how much teams are willing to gamble.
It is unknown how many years Tanaka is seeking, or how long term teams will be open to going, but anything over three years will be easily the biggest contract handed to a pitcher this winter. If a club were to go five years at the alleged $17 million minimum, for instance, it would have to cough up $85 million. That estimate is probably on the low end, as one GM told Fox Sports' Gabe Kapler he expects a deal in the range of six years, $105 million. Add the $20 million "release fee" that is owed the Rakuten Golden Eagles, and the contract starts entering Matt Cain/Cole Hamels territory.
The New York Yankees -- who else? -- have already demonstrated that Tanaka's high price tag won't keep them from making a run at him. The club reportedly reached out to his agent, Casey Close, on Thursday, per Marc Carig of Newsday, just a few hours after Tanaka's 30-day negotiating window opened. The Bombers have made several high-profile signings this winter, but have done little to restock their rotation outside of re-signing Hiroki Kuroda. At the moment, the Yanks have Kuroda, Ivan Nova, an aging C.C. Sabathia -- who is coming off his worst season in the bigs -- a supposedly healthy Michael Pineda, and maybe David Phelps to fill out the rotation.
While there hasn't been word of anyone else contacting Tanaka's reps yet, there's sure to be a boatload of teams involved in negotiations over the next month. The Angels, Cubs, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are widely regarded to be potential landing spots, and reports surfaced Friday morning that the Mariners will be "a factor" in the discussions. So far as uninterested clubs go, the Orioles are said to not be in the running, and the Red Sox have shown "no sign" of being interested at this point, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.
All clubs have until January 24 to work out a deal with Tanaka.
Just because it's the offseason doesn't mean there isn't baseball being played. Unfortunately, we can't watch any of it, but we can gaze upon the box scores and drool (or choke). The Dominican Winter League has come to an end so we can now look back on how the Yankees performed while we have been all cooped up and shivering.
Zoilo Almonte
Zoilo Almonte led the way among all Yankees playing this winter. In 174 at-bats, he hit an impressive .316/.343/.454 with four home runs and 20 RBI. He managed to steal six bases while getting caught only twice. He hit well overall, but he struggled with his patience, striking out 36 times against only six walks. On top of that he committed four errors in the field. It's nice to see Almonte go on a solid tear this winter, but the strikeout problems might be the most telling.
2014 Outlook: Now that the Yankees have signed Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, there won't be much expected from Almonte. The 2014 outfield, as of right now, will consist of Ellsbury, Beltran, Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki, and Alfonso Soriano. If something changes, Almonte could compete for a spot in spring training. He'll start in Triple-A if he isn't moved to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
Dean Anna
The newest addition to the Yankee system, Dean Anna only got into nine games while the Padres were trading him. He hit .235/.316/.294 with two RBI in 34 at-bats. He also struck out seven times against four walks and he committed two errors in the field. Seeing how utterly useless their minor league call ups were, it made sense for the Yankees to add someone who can play everywhere and hit decently enough.
2014 Outlook: The Yankees acquired Anna as a potential utility player on the major league roster or for solid depth in Triple-A. With the coming roster crunch he could get designated for assignment or he could be kept in Triple-A in case of an emergency. Either way, it's unlikely that they would give a 27-year-old career minor leaguer a spot on the team straight out of camp.
Eduardo Nunez
The guy who might find his spot on the roster in jeopardy thanks to the addition of Anna, Eduardo Nunez, got into only five games this offseason. He collected three singles in 20 at-bats and still managed to commit an error.
2014 Outlook: The Yankees seem to be done with Nunez on the heels of another disappointing season. Brian Cashman finally admitted he is likely more of a utility infielder than anything else, but his offense doesn't make up for his lack of defense. It's possible that he gets designated for assignment soon, but will probably just be stashed in the minors until someone gets injured.
Gary Sanchez
The Yankees' top prospect, Gary Sanchez, didn't get much playing time as he only played in a total of 12 games. In 28 at-bats he hit a mere .179/.258/.214 with two RBI and no home runs while striking out nine times and walking three times. It would have been nice to see what Sanchez could have done if he was given the chance to reach 100 at-bats.
2014 Outlook: Given the long line of catchers in front of him, Sanchez will start the season in Double-A. Now that the Yankees have Brian McCann, they won't have to rush their top prospect, who is still only just 21 years old. He has plenty of time to work out his defense and adapt to the upper levels of the minors before he needs to show himself in the big leagues.
Francisco Rondon
After a roller coaster season, Francisco Rondon only got to pitch in two games over the winter. He gave up three hits and three walks while striking out two in 2.1 innings pitched. It would have been nice to get more from him to see if he could continue the success he found in 2013 after he failed as a starter and was designated for assignment.
2014 Outlook: Prior to the signing of Matt Thornton, it looked like Rondon and Cesar Cabral were the two most likely in-house candidates to compete for a job as the left-handed specialist out of the Yankee bullpen. Now Rondon could remain in Double-A with Cabral waiting in Triple-A just in case.
The New York Daily News has the first mainstream story legitimately linking the Mariners to Tanaka. It's yet another report going off a single anonymous source, but it's something.
You know our stance here. We've long held that a serious pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka would be a worthwhile endeavor for the Mariners, because the circumstances all seemed to fit so nicely: the M's have demonstrated success with Japanese players, word is they're willing to spend on the right piece and Tanaka could hardly be a more ideal target.
So why, with every other suitor having challenges to overcome—just like Seattle—are the Mariners being viewed as a periphery player in the chase for the class's top free agent pitcher? Why haven't we seen that long-awaited "link"?
"The Mariners are going to be a factor," one baseball official said. "They have a following in Japan. They enjoyed what they had when Ichiro (Suzuki) was on the team.
"They want the chance for moves like getting Cano to pay off. And they envision (Felix ) Hernandez paired with Tanaka at the top of the rotation."
Let's start with the positives.
First, though it seemed like the obvious route, it's good to see someone finally say the Mariners are indeed in "win-now" mode as they try to maximize the twilight years of Robinson Cano's prime. It only makes sense.
Second, with the story coming from New York, it's highly likely the source is someone affiliated in one fashion or another with the Yankees. That's no certainty, as "baseball official" could be about anyone, but it seems likely—and that'd be a positive if it were to be the case. If the Yankees, considered by most to be the clubhouse leader in the pursuit of Tanaka, genuinely view the Mariners as a viable threat then they probably are.
Through negotiations with Brodie Van Wagenen, Jay Z and the rest of the CAA Sports clan over Cano, it's fair to assume they have a slightly better picture of the Mariners' aggressiveness this offseason than most teams, as it may well have been relayed to them during those talks.
Then again, the source for this story may have no ties to the Yankees whatsoever. We don't know.
What's interesting to me is that the reporter for this story, Roger Rubin, has been covering more college sports as of late—and doesn't appear to have been working on the Daily News's Cano coverage. But, that's a positive, or at least neutral. Rubin has been covering college sports since baseball's offseason began as part of his regular role with the paper, but while the Daily News did have some strong reporting work in the Cano saga, they dropped the ball at a crucial juncture.
Despite the deal between the Mariners and Cano being agreed upon late Thursday, December 5th the Daily News went hard to the hoop with a report saying talks between the two camps had broken down as Howard Lincoln "exploded" when Jay Z didn't immediately accept the deal they had on the table and instead pushed for 10 years, $252 million. As the aforementioned Larry Stone piece notes, Lincoln was in Hawaii at the time. Terms of the deal between Cano and the Mariners were reported within an hour to 90 minutes of the Daily News reporting the talks had hit a snag.
But it did, and if papers want to run with stories utilizing iffy reporting then they deserve reasonable amount of skepticism the next time around. Maybe not as much as if it were the same reporters, but skepticism nonetheless.
In the end, this shouldn't change your perspective on the Mariners' pursuit of Tanaka all that much. Of course they were going to pursue him, and it was likely they were going to be playing to win. Because what else would they be doing?
Yes, the Mariners are after Masahiro Tanaka. And if you want, you can feel a little bit better because it's in a newspaper.
The Rockies bullpen has seen some significant changes this offseason; with age finally catching up to Rafael Betancourt, Josh Outman being out-leftied and the Rockies wisely choosing not to give another look at Manny Corpas and Mitchell Boggs, the opening day bullpen might represent the part of the team that will have changed the most, usage-wise. And thankfully, with all that talk of a potential Adam Ottavino/Chad Bettis setup crew, the team went out and assembled a crew of players that I actually really like to supplement a roster that saw a lot of projected talent diminish last season.
One player that is notably not gone is Matt Belisle; the Rockies waiting until the very last possible minute to decide whether or not to accept his $4.25M club option, which they did after they were unable to work out a new contract. Belisle's 2013 was a long-predicted step backwards for the reliever, though I think this was a wise move in context. Belisle isn't necessarily an extremely great bounce-back candidate after the workload he has been burdened with, and the large dollar figure doesn't help, but the pen remains stronger with him in it. Let us just hope he doesn't need to be used quite so much.
A much better bounce-back candidate is none other than Wilton Lopez, Purple Row's 2013 punching bag and interesting case that predictive results stats like WAR don't always correspond to actual results. Lopez essentially pitched fairly well, and did absolutely nothing but lose games while doing so. What an interesting man! Much like Belisle, look for a reworked role in 2013 that focuses less on predictable setup appearances.
Newcomers include LaTroy Hawkins and Boone Logan, both of whom are likely to be shouldering competitive innings in the stead of Lopez and Belisle. Hawkins will be competing for closing time with Rex Brothers, a move I frequently alternate between liking and hating with the fire of a thousand suns. I like the idea of a closer-by-committee approach, and the idea of Brothers being available to bust the team out of jams in the seventh or eighth, but while I like the Hawkins signing (it was an excellent example of shrewd market manipulation, identifying and quickly obtaining a piece that is very likely to put up good production and less-than-average market value), I like Brothers better as the high-impact arm. Just because Brothers doesn't need to close all the time doesn't mean he shouldn't ever be allowed to this season.
Logan, on the other hand, will focus primarily on lefty-dominated lineups. I still think he'll be seeing some work against righties too, but the presence of Franklin Morales might make things more interesting. As I mentioned in yesterday's piece, Morales is unlikely to land a rotation spot without a serious meltdown or injury occurring, meaning he's the leading candidate to land the seventh spot in the pen. A stretched out Morales could serve as a spot starter/long reliever/emergency lefty, but I think the real gem of having three lefties in the pen is the fact that we wouldn't feel pressured to dig for another lefty should one of them go down. Rather than dig deeper to Kraig Sitton levels, we could just call up a Rob Scahill or Chad Bettis and still have two lefties at play.
Joining Brothers as a pre-arbitration reliever coming off a career year is Adam Ottavino, whose name was floated as a setup candidate. While I don't necessarily like the idea of using him for junk innings quite as much as he was in 2013, I think he's a perfect guy to keep on an adaptable, shifting role schedule. Whether in a tight spot or a big blowout, Ottavino can be counted on to pitch in top form, provided that form itself is still in as good of a shape was we saw last season. I see no need to go tinkering with finding just the right spot for him, he fits everywhere.
The biggest wildcard name among 40-man relievers will be our Rule 5 pick from the Yankees, Tommy Kahnle. Assuming Hawkins, Brothers, Logan, Wilson, Belisle, Ottavino and Morales all make the team, Kahnle would require the Rockies to open the season with eight relievers. The team spent a pretty significant amount of the 2013 season carrying an extra reliever, but I don't recall the Rockies opening the season with this roster configuration. Of course, Kahnle could make this decision really easy if he shows up to Spring Training with his career-long control issues, but relievers are also by far the easiest players to carry along through the season as Rule 5 selections. I could see this going either way.
Other peripheral players include the aforementioned Scahill and Bettis. Scahill is likely to return to his 2013 role of "first guy to be called up when needed, first guy to be sent down when not". Bettis' future almost certainly seems to be in relief at this point, but I still want the righty to be kept a a starter until he is either traded or needed with the MLB team. His contract details are discussed in yesterday's article, along with Morales'.
Rounding out the 30-man pitchers are Kraig Sitton and Raul Fernandez, neither of whom has a realistic shot to break camp with the Rockies. Both were surprised Rule 5 protection additions in November. Sitton's addition makes some sense, as the Rockies are extremely light on lefty relief depth, and by ensuring Sitton wasn't picked from under the radar, we have at least one guy to reach down too in the worst case scenario. Fernandez, on the other hand, remains one of the biggest mysteries. At this point, I've accepted that the team sees something that nobody else does. All well and good, but the longer he sticks in favor of other players, the more it will annoy in a nagging itch sort of mold. SItton figures to be in the Drillers bullpen, Fernandez could land with either Asheville or Modesto, as he spent much of last season injured.
Bullpen Breakdown:
Signed - Matt Belisle $4.25M, free agency after 2014 (Gen. 5 protection) - LaTroy Hawkins $2.25M, $2.25M club option 2015 (Gen. 5 protection) - Boone Logan $4.75M, signed through 2016 (Gen. 5 protection)
Can Brian Roberts actually stay healthy in 2014? Should the Yankees even want him to?
When veteran second baseman Brian Roberts agreed to a one-year deal with the Yankees, the first reaction from the team's fan base seemed to be a collective groan. By attempting to replace Robinson Cano with a 36-year-old with a medical sheet that reads like a Tolstoy novel, Brian Cashman and company seemed to be almost begging for a repeat of the nightmares of 2013.
But hey - it's Christmastime. Perhaps a glimmer of hope can be found in even the Scroogiest of Yankee decisions.
It wasn't that long ago that Brian Roberts was one of the better - and more durable middle infielders in baseball. Between 2004 and 2009 he managed fWARs of 3.1 or better in five straight seasons, and he played 138 or more games played in six straight. Back then only a dislocated elbow from a collision with then-Yankee Bubba Crosby in September, 2005 marred his record of otherwise stellar health.
Things began to change in the spring of 2010 when Roberts was sidelined with a herniated disk in his back. Over the next four years, he would spend more time disabled than not, missing major time with injuries to his head, groin, hip and knee. Roberts has succeeded in hurting just about everything a professional athlete can hurt - including, I'm sure, his pride. Between 2010 and 2013, he appeared in just 192 games. His body became a leaky dam of sorts - plug one hole and another bursts open just as fast. For a more in-depth account of what's ailed Roberts, check out Jason's article from last week.
Can Roberts stay healthy for the 2014 Yankees? Four years of concussions, pulls and tears say probably not, but the better question might be if the Yankees should even want him to. When he has played of late, Roberts has done pretty poorly. In those 192 games he took the field for, worth just under a season and a fifth, he accumulated an fWAR of only 1.0. He hasn't matched his career averages in OBP or slugging since 2009 or in wRC+ or walk rate since 2010. His speed and defense have tailed off, too. After averaging 39 steals a year from 2006 through 2009, Roberts has swiped just 22 bags the past four years. He also has a negative cumulative UZR since 2007.
So where are those festive positives I promised? Well, at least in context, 2013 was a sort of uptick for Roberts. The 77 games he played were his highest total in the made-of-glass portion of his career and his 90 wRC+ and .143 ISO were non-horrible. After missing most of the first half with a ruptured tendon behind his right knee, Roberts managed to play often from early July onward without getting hurt again. His play improved consistently as he readjusted to facing major league pitching on a daily basis. After a putrid .602 OPS July, he batted .254/.353/.352 in August and .250/.306/.450 in September.
The Yankees saw a similar thing happen with the oft-injured Eric Chavez in 2011. After failing to play more than 33 games for three straight seasons, Chavez got himself in the lineup fairly consistently in August and September that year. While his performance wasn't great, he was able to re-acclimate himself to the rigors of regular baseball. In 2012, even with his playing time limited, Chavez came back with his best campaign in half a decade.
I'm not suggesting with any confidence that Brian Roberts can actually contribute to the Yankees next season. I'm certainly not advocating that the second base dilemma is solved or that the club should stop looking for something better. Still, Roberts playing a league average second for 100 or 120 games wouldn't be the strangest thing we've seen happen in the Bronx. To make a run in 2014, the Yankees will surely need to see some older players defy their years. Maybe Roberts can be one of them.
Goodnight Boone - a Parody Poem by I'mGivingYouARaise
I've decided to say goodbye to this awful, awful year of Yankees baseball in the best way I know how; parody poetry. So, in keeping with the classic children's poem "Goodnight Moon" I give you all "Goodnight Boone."
Goodnight Boone
by I'mGivingYouARaise
In the big Bronx tomb
There were some broken bones
And a big buffoon
And a LOOGY who would go by the name of Boone.
And there were unanswered prayers, some oblique tears.
And ten third basemen
And a decent bullpen
And a lot of dumb boasts
Youk's face was gross
And some hits and some grit and some uneven splits
MLB plans to investigate any dealings that could infringe upon the new posting system, that includes the idea that Masahiro Tanaka wants to donate money to his old team
Under the new posting system, the Japanese team will receive a maximum of $20 million for their player, and MLB is intent on making sure it's absolutely no more than that. According to the LA Times, they plan to investigate whether a deal has been made between Masahiro Tanaka and the Rakuten Golden Eagles that would award the team more money than they agreed to receive under the new contract.
During the press conference to announce they would post Tanaka and allow him to come to America, Golden Eagles president Yozo Tachibana claimed the new agreement was unfair and that Tanaka had expressed the desire to make a donation to the team, which would go toward a new dome for their stadium. While the Japanese superstar did not attend the press conference, Tachibana claimed that he wanted to "repay the team that developed me" and "cooperate and donate . . . starting with improving the environment for the players and to make sure it's the kind of stadium that can be loved by [local] fans."
The new system between MLB and NPB does not just allow the Japanese team to make money off their players, but it also prohibits them from making any more than allowed, in any form, whether it be back room payments or some kind of donation. As Ken Rosenthal reports, the new deal between the two leagues allows the commissioner of MLB to void any transactions that infringe on the new rules. If Tanaka were to donate money to Rakuten, MLB would be allowed to review such an action.
They will also be able to police MLB teams from making any kind of agreements under the table to gain an unfair advantage in negotiations. Whether it be a deal that would pay the Japanese team double the release fee to gain favor or the promise of bidding high on another player at a later date, MLB plans to crack down on anything that could infringe upon the agreement. They will also take the idea of illegal kickbacks very seriously, though one source Rosenthal talked to believes such a deal would be "'very inefficient' - Tanaka would be taxed on his major league income in Japan, and Rakuten would be taxed for any revenue he contributed to the club."
I completely understand the idea of preventing MLB teams from making illegal deals behind everyone's back, but does it really matter if Tanaka wants to give away some of his own money? No one gets any unfair advantage from this as a deal has already been made. It seems like it's none of MLB's business where Tanaka ultimately spends his money. If he indeed plans to help with stadium renovations, and MLB says that he can't, it would really prove that NPB has simply become a feeder league to America.
The New York Yankees basically paid the Pittsburgh Pirates to take on A.J. Burnett after three awful seasons in the Bronx. Then came Burnett's sinker, and the rest was history.
Let’s get this out of the way first: We don’t know what’s up with A.J. Burnett, other than the fact that he’s mulling over retirement. A lot of unknowns still need to be pieced together, I know, but should Burnett opt to prolong his career for just a bit longer, he would stand to make a pretty penny in free agency, fresh off his best season as a pro--at the age of 36. That is, depending on which metric you prefer.
Wins Above Replacement (Burnett had a 4.0 fWAR in 2013) says he’s had a few better seasons in the past--three, to be exact. FIP, FIP- and a handful of others, meanwhile, paint a partially different picture.
On a FIP-level, only 11 other 36-year-old starting pitchers have ever mustered a lower FIP than the 2.80 mark Burnett had in 2013 (190 innings minimum). Only five have ever posted a lower FIP-. Finally, only one other starter has ever struck out batters at a higher clip. I could drop an "but wait, there’s more" line on you, but the point is already clear enough: Burnett’s 2013 season winds up in some darn good territory.
Trying to pin down just a single reason for Burnett’s resurgence is difficult because it’s a mixture of a handful of factors. But we’ll focus on one of the bigger themes, and that’s his increased usage of the sinker since joining the Piratesvia trade in February 2012.
In a visual, with the numbers coming courtesy of Brooks Baseball...
Pitch
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Fastball
43.95
46.87
47.41
49.58
41.82
24.66
21.66
Sinker
22.23
17.45
17.98
19.90
13.85
35.68
36.78
Note: Brooks Baseball’s Pitch FX data only goes back to 2007
The layman’s terms translation: There were plenty of fastballs until 2012, and then the sinker surfaced as Burnett’s primary hard pitch. Then, more sinkers in 2013. This is an interesting trend, one that sparks up a few ideas.
First, it’s worth acknowledging that a sinker and a fastball can be very, very similar. They’re both in the "fastball group" and the velocity of the two pitches is often comparable. If that was the case, this whole article would be a useless exercise. But, naturally, I made sure it wasn’t, finding that Burnett’s sinker draws enough horizontal movement to make it an entirely different pitch from a normal four-seamer.
Secondly, it’s worth speculating about the idea that Burnett intentionally started to wield his sinker more because the Pirates use defensive shifts to hedge their chances of gobbling up ground balls. It’s conceivable. More than conceivable, in fact, since sinkers generally induce grounders. And wouldn't you know it, Burnett's GB% since 2012 has ballooned to 56.7% after maxing out in the high 40's in the previous four years.
Of course, in saying that, we’re basically implying that Burnett can flip the switch on and off in terms of creating grounders.That, on the other hand, is tough to believe. Burnett struggled during his tenure with the New York Yankees, especially with home runs. Just four starters from 2009-2011 served up more long balls per fly ball than Burnett, and the result of all the dingers was, predictably, underwhelming, as only five other starters mustered a worse FIP-.
So intuitively, it’d make sense to question why Burnett didn’t throw his sinker more. Doing so would’ve given him the opportunity to keep the ball on the ground, instead of in the air. At the very least, it would’ve been a change of pace, something new.
But it’s not that simple. Very few things are that simple. Sure, we can say "do this, do that," but the big obstacle was the fact that Burnett had a hard time commanding his sinker, mustering a Strike% of just 22.82% from 2007-2011. It had plenty of pop, yes. It had enough horizontal movement, sure. But you can’t throw what you can’t locate. It’s useless.
Then, something happened. Maybe it was a slightly different release point that boosted Burnett’s sinker Strike% up to 27.84%. Regardless, it helped him improve in one very, very important situation: The dreaded hitter’s count.
Dreaded, of course, because of the drastic split differentials: When batters were ahead in the count, the league average OPS for pitchers was a lofty .957 (in 2013). That’s why you constantly hear the phrase "pitchers need to get ahead in the count" during broadcasts, radio shows, and things of that sort. It’s not just some arbitrary saying, as the league average OPS drops to merely .504 when the pitcher had the edge.
For Burnett, getting behind has been somewhat frequent. Of the 801 plate appearances opposing hitters had against him, 241 of them came in hitters’ counts, coming out to about 30%. That’s a decently-sized chunk, but, predictably, it’s been much bigger: 32% in 2012, 37% in 2011, 38% in 2010 and 37.5% in 2009.
With those numbers, there’s a readily noticeable trend: When Burnett was good, he was ahead more. When he was bad, well, take a guess. From 2009-2011, he struggled, pitching to a 4.36 FIP. He was decent in 2012. And we’ve already examined his fantastic 2013 campaign. Pretty simple stuff.
But what’s the purpose of all of this? Because Burnett used (and still does, a little) to struggle considerably when down in the count. Then came the sinker, which, to over-exaggerate, saved the day.
(Opponents' OPS against Burnett when they were ahead in the count)
Year
Opponents’ OPS
1999
1.006
2000
0.876
2001
0.932
2002
0.878
2003
0.954
2004
0.948
2005
0.926
2006
1.015
2007
1.028
2008
1.035
2009
1.026
2010
1.113
2011
1.237
2012
0.936
Total
0.993
The numbers are interesting because Burnett doesn’t lack for swing-and-miss stuff. In 2013, he posted a SwSr% of 10.6%, good for 14th in baseball (among all pitchers, relievers included). He owns a career 10% SwSr%. And one of the many perks of swing-and-miss stuff is the ability to pitch behind in the count without having to give into a hitter’s liking--a fastball, usually.
The table above doesn’t paint that picture. You’ll notice a bleak six-year stretch in which opponents annually cracked the 1.000 OPS plateau, and said stretch rendered Burnett a lousy 4.25 FIP.
It wasn’t until 2012 where Burnett climbed under the 1.000 OPS mark, and if you want to pick hairs, the .936 mark does qualify as above average. By a smidge.
And now, a drumroll for his 2013 opponents’ OPS with the batter ahead: .863. If you whip out a calculator, you’ll arrive at a 73-point improvement in a one-year span. Which is pretty substantial, when you consider how many runs are prevented by keeping hitters at bay while down in the count over the course of a full season.
So, those numbers pose the inevitable question: How did Burnett do it? Well, let’s get back to the original refrain: More sinkers. Though this time, the usage is almost doubled with the batter ahead.
Pitch
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sinker
28.5
23.5
21
25.5
21.5
49
48.5
Note: Since PitchFX data only goes back to 2007 on Brooks Baseball, we don’t get the whole sampling, but a seven-year span will do just fine.
The cut-and-dry version of the table: Over the past two years, Burnett has doled his sinker almost half the time when the batter was ahead. The word "outliers" does indeed come to mind, given the sharp increase from 2011 to 2012 and the subsequent 48.5% in 2013.
Again, we’re seeing the uptick in Burnett’s sinker usage followed by the solid results. They work in tandem, right? There’s definitely a connection, I’ll say that. But let’s not push it too far, because not only is Burnett using his sinker much more frequently, he’s also completely avoiding the batter ahead situation by pouring in more first-pitch strikes (career-high 62.4 first-pitch strike percentage in 2013). That’s one way to go about fixing the problem; it’s probably one of the better ways, too.
Perhaps, just perhaps, we’re overvaluing A.J. Burnett’s sinker. As aforementioned, it’s not just his sinker doing all the work. It’s just another weapon, after all. Except it’s a weapon that has kinda-sorta turned his career around after the Yankees essentially paid the Pirates to take him off their hands.
Masahiro Tanaka has officially posted and, under the new rules put into place, he can negotiate with all 30 MLB teams, but the signing team has to be willing to pay the Rakuten Golden Eagles $20 million on top of whatever the final contract is. That means the Yankees will be competing with everyone, though some are more likely to be a threat than others.
Looking at the remaining 29 teams that could pose a threat to the Yankees signing Tanaka, I have given them a color coded threat level of Mild, Medium, Critical.
There's no one on the east coast that shows to be an imminent threat against the Yankees. There are plenty of players who could move in, but as of right now, only a few have the ability to make a run.
Medium: The Blue Jays were big on Yu Darvish and nearly won the bidding, so they could try again. The Red Sox probably have the ability to make a move, but something like this doesn't seem to be their M.O. following last offseason, which worked out pretty well.
The Nationals might have the means and could be the biggest threat of the four, but they already have a strong rotation as it is and could look to improve the team elsewhere. The Phillies are in trouble going into 2014, and while it might make more sense to start moving pieces, they could instead decide to spend to make up for their problems.
Mild: The Orioles need Tanaka, but they have shown to be very gun shy when it comes to free agents. The Braves already have a young rotation, while the Rays, Mets, and Marlins won't really play much of a role.
Critical: The Cubs have been said to be interested in signing Tanaka and now that they have Theo Epstein, maybe they can finally use their money towards a smart investment. They aren't in win-now mode, but Tanaka could be a good first step to start bringing in free agents and fans.
Medium: The Tigers already have plenty of money tied up to their roster, though trading Doug Fister and Prince Fielder could open themselves up to make a bid for Tanaka. The Reds aren't close to a favorite, but they were reportedly interested in retaining Shin-Soo Choo before he signed elsewhere and they could be saving up to make a run.
Mild: A lot of the teams from the middle states lack the financial clout to be big players in these sweepstakes. The Cardinals don't need him and the Twins, Royals, Indians, Brewers, and Pirates can't afford him. The White Sox could possibly maybe get involved, but it doesn't look like they plan to spend much this offseason.
Critical: Here is where the real threats lie. It's possible the Mariners could double down on their offseason expenditures in order to make the Robinson Cano signing worth a little more. One player doesn't turn around a team, but bringing in Cano and Tanaka could really prove they mean business to help change the stigma attached to Seattle.
The Rangers have stated that they are likely out on Tanaka after signing Shin-Soo Choo, but they do have the financial might to make another big splash to put them over the edge. Putting together Choo, Tanaka, and Fielder, along with Darvish and Jurickson Profar is a great way to ensure that they re-establish themselves as a playoff contender.
The Dodgers have a lot of money and they have shown they're not afraid to spend it if they have to. They already have Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu in 2014, but signing Tanaka would be great insurance against potentially losing Kershaw to free agency next year.
Medium: The Diamondbacks have said that Tanaka is their top priority right now, and while they could surprise people, I highly doubt they have the financial strength to entice him to come to the desert. The Angels definitely have the ability to afford Tanaka, if they decide that spending is the only way to improve their financially bloated team.
Mild: The Giants look to have a full rotation, while the Rockies, Padres, and Athletics won't really have much of a voice in negotiations. While it's completely unlikely, the Astros could put together a competitive bid before he signs elsewhere.
Of course there's obviously going to be a mystery team at some point that could blow us all out of the water. Who do you think will be the biggest players for Tanaka? Who will be the mystery team?
What would the costs be if Brian Cashman did in fact need to move Brett Gardner for pitching? Would it be enough?
As painful as it is to write about the Yankees twice in a week, today Peter Gammons confirmed widespread assumptions about Brett Gardner's fate this offseason:
Since the Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, at least a half-dozen teams—from the Phillies to the Tigers—have taken a run at Brett Gardner, knowing he’s a free agent at the end of next season. But Brian Cashman won’t move him until and unless he has to for starting pitching.
The fact that Brett Gardner is the second-most valuable returning Yankee--having been worth 3.2 fWAR in 2013 (second only to Hiroki Kuroda at 3.8 fWAR)--should absolutely be of concern to Brian Cashman when looking at their 2014 squad. As I detailed in my piece on Tanaka not being enough to vault the Yankees into the playoffs earlier this week, the Yankees don't exactly have a surplus of productive talent.
That said the Yankees do have a lot of outfielders. Well, sort of. The Yankees have Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, and Vernon Wells. Ellsbury, Gardner, and Ichiro are all still above average defensive players, and Soriano can play a passable left field. Vernon Wells, however, has not put up a season with a positive defensive component for fWAR since 2008.
As for Beltran, he was the worst defensive player in baseball last year, with the largest negative defensive component for fWAR of any player. His -18.7 UZR/150 was like Friday the 13th Part VIII: Jason Takes Manhattan: scary, but not "scary good," scary in that you can't help but wonder how it ever happened in the first place. To add to the horror show of Beltran in the outfield, his arm is now a liability as well, as 2013 marked the first time that his arm rated out as having cost his team runs.
Since they're already over the luxury tax threshold, Brian Cashman and the Yankees could easily afford to cut Vernon Wells loose, eating the $2.4MM that they owe him in 2014. That would rightfully shift Beltran to DH, leaving Soriano and Ichiro as their pricey fourth and fifth outfielders ($5.0MM and $6.5MM, respectively). Neither Soriano nor Ichiro would be likely to fetch much on the trade market, but their price tags aren't huge impediments to shipping them off.
Of course, all that is assuming the health of their outfielders (and that the Yankees are smart enough to keep Beltran off the field as much as possible). Ellsbury's injury history has been well documented--roughly 260 games missed to injury in the past four seasons, or two of every five games. Gardner is a year removed from a 16-game season. Wells played only 77 games in 2012. In fact, the only ones who have been mostly healthy for the past three seasons are Ichiro, Beltran, and Soriano. If there was a team that could afford to have $11.5MM of their payroll devoted to their fourth and fifth outfielders, it is probably the Yankees.
Unfortunately for the Yankees, they may not have that luxury. Gardner is one of their few commodities that has value on the trade market, and that value is limited by the fact that there's only one year of club control left. Since arbitration is generally driven by offensive numbers, Gardner is only expected to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $4.0MM, so the opportunity for a team to get significant surplus value in $/WAR is high.
2013 is now in the books and as Frank Sinatra liked to sing, it was a pretty good year.
With so many teams being in the market for starting pitching, though, it is hard to imagine Gardner alone being enough to get an impact arm. With the Yankees not having produced an everyday player since the 2005 draft (h/t Josh Norris)*, they don't have much of value in the farm system past Gary Sanchez to package with Gardner to yield the coveted arm they might want.
*I've long said their player development was bad, but this is ineptitude on display.
As postulated in the aforementioned Tanaka piece, the Yankees could well need not just Tanaka but also Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Matt Garza to get them anywhere near the 90-win threshold to be able to realistically think about a Wild Card spot. Their true-talent level was really much more in the neighborhood of a .500 team (or worse) and they lost more than 13 WAR of production from last year via free agency and retirement and haven't even completely replaced that production in their off-season moves thus far.
While it is novel to think the Brett Gardner might be able to fetch them the starter they may need should Tanaka (and everyone else) sign elsewhere, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Gardner nets a good enough starter to both offset the production lost in Gardner's absence and to vault them into the playoff picture. After all, what pitchers who are commonly thought to be available via trade would be impactful enough for the Yankees to want? Which teams would be willing to trade that potential impact arm for a package centered around one year of Gardner and the Yankees misshapen prospects?
Honestly, if it gets to the point where the Yankees are having to address their needs in the rotation with a Brett Gardner trade, Yankees fans should probably brace themselves for a letdown.
