Can De Paula return to early-2013 form after having a lackluster second-half of the season?
Background:
Rafael De Paula signed with the New York Yankees in 2010. The six-foot-two, 212 pound right-handed pitcher hails from La Victoria, Dominican Republic. Following the signing, MLB conducted a 16-month investigation into De Paula's age before finally approving the contract. De Paula made his debut at the age of 21 in the Dominican Summer League in 2012, where he posted a 1.46 ERA, .254 BABIP, 0.86 WHIP and 12.49 K/9 over 61.2 IP.
De Paula is a fastball-heavy pitcher. One scout described it as "an advanced pitch, sinking well, and inducing hitters to pound the ball into the ground." Nathaniel Stoltz over at Fangraphs watched De Paula last season and found his fastball to be inconsistent due to the fact that it sat between 91-94 mph during the first few innings, then dropped to 88-92 during the fourth and fifth inning. The other main pitches that De Paula throws are a slider said to have "ferocious" tilt and an average changeup.
De Paula began the 2013 season with the Charleston RiverDogs, where he got off to a dominant start with opponents only batting .187 against him. He was promoted to Tampa in early June, where he struggled quite a bit. His strikeout rate dropped, his walks increased, and his ERA more than doubled. In July he represented the Yankees at the 2013 Futures Game. He pitched a scoreless inning, though he gave up a single and hit a batter.
2014 Outlook:
De Paula is set to start the season pitching in High-A Tampa, where he will look to bounce back from late season struggles. Stoltz has speculated that the cause for De Paula's second-half struggles could be due to his inexperience pitching in a challenging league (thanks in part to the long delay in getting his contract finalized). Stoltz also noted that the increase in innings pitched between 2012 and 2013 could have caused him to fade during the second half of the season; In 2012 De Paula pitched just 61.2 innings, compared to 113.1 innings in 2013.
It remains to be seen whether De Paula can pitch at a consistent level. Despite the fact that he will turn 23 this season, it is still early in his development program. Steamer's 2014 projections for De Paula are not particularly kind as they predict a 5.03 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 6.43 K/9, and a 1.53 WHIP. Hopefully more experience and increased stamina will help De Paula return to early-2013 form. If this is the case, another dominant start to the season could see him promoted to Trenton (Double-A).
Same as the old boss? Six years into his reign, how does Hal Steinbrenner stack up as owner of the Yankees?
As owner of the Yankees, Hal Steinbrenner has a lot to live up to. His father, George - the old boss - was one of the more irrepressible personalities in all of sports. From his tyrannical manager-firing days of the 70's and 80's to his more mellow years in the 90's and early 2000's, he was as much a part of who the Yankees were as Munson, Jackson, Mattingly and Jeter. Though he didn't always know how to go about it, winning was everything to George - he understood that the best way to turn a profit in New York was to put a great product on the field every single season, and to convince fans that World Series victory was the only acceptable outcome.
The new boss? Not as much. Since being elected Chairman of the Board at Yankee Global Enterprises in September 2007, since becoming the principal everyday owner and operator of the Yankee franchise in November 2008 and since his father's passing on All-Star game Tuesday in 2010, Hal Steinbrenner's shown us that his views on how to run things aren't exactly what his old man's were. Committed to organizational stability and more fiscal responsibility, Hal's calm and pragmatism have established him as the lead dog in Yankee-land, relegating his more outspoken brother Hank to carnival barker type duties. But after thirty-five plus years of George, can the Yankees still be the Yankees under Hal's more muted approach?
Family dynasties are a tricky thing as plenty of sports franchises and medieval kingdoms have found out the hard way. Being lucky enough to be born to the right parents doesn't necessarily qualify you to be king or emperor, or to run a billion dollar business. Of the nine pro teams in the New York area, five - the Yankees, Mets, Giants, Knicks and Rangers - are run wholly or in part by the sons of longtime owners. No one seems to have much of a problem with John Mara, but Jeff Wilpon and Jim Dolan are always on the verge of being strung up by fans. Hal falls somewhere in between.
With a couple of exceptions, one area where Hal's bested his father is that he's resisted butting in to baseball decisions on most occasions. Sure, there was the Rafael Soriano incident of 2011, when Hal and his consorts at the top of the organization forced Brian Cashman to cede a draft pick and overpay the then Rays closer to serve as Mariano Rivera's caddie. Hal overruled Cashman again in 2013 when he instructed his GM to make a trade with the Cubs for a 37-year-old Alfonso Soriano, desperate to boost the Yankees' injury-ravaged offense. Neither deal worked out all that badly - Rivera got hurt in 2012 and Rafael filled in well in the ninth while Alfonso raked last August and September and is under contract for another year with Chicago picking up most of the tab.
Sorianos aside, the extent to which Hal gets involved in personnel moves is nowhere near what it was with George. The younger Steinbrenner doesn't seem to have much of a personal affinity for players on other teams the way his father did, for guys like Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden and Gary Sheffield. He doesn't trust different advisers on different days, a quirk of the boss's that led to moves like the ill-fated Jaret Wright signing of 2005. For the most part, he lets Cashman do his job, which is what an owner should do.
Another stark difference between Hal and George is that the former doesn't seem to believe in firing well - anyone. Six years after he took over the team in earnest, the Yankees still have the same club president, the same GM, the same manager, the same directors of scouting and player development and most of the same coaches and scouts. There's nothing wrong with stability. The firestorm that went on in the 80's - seven GM's and nine managers in ten years - certainly wasn't helping anyone succeed. But is it possible we've tilted too far toward the opposite extreme? Though their departments haven't produced at anything close to an acceptable level in years, Mark Newman and Damon Oppenheimer are still hanging in there.
Maybe the most defining aspect of Hal Steinbrenner's ownership has been the infamous plan 189, which has sculpted many of the Yankees' player decisions for the past couple of off-seasons as they've struggled not to guarantee too much money for 2014 and beyond. The quest to get payroll under $189 million to avoid paying MLB's growing luxury taxes has relegated the club to dumpster diving for one-year deals at plenty of positions while eschewing better, younger players who commanded longer commitments. Hal's maintained all along that the Yankees would abandon penny pinching if they felt it would prevent them from winning, and after spending nearly $300 million on free agents this winter they seem poised to do just that if they're fortunate enough to land Masahiro Tanaka. That doesn't exactly let Hal and Randy Levine off the hook. An about face now doesn't erase moves that have already been made - and not made.
To be fair, George never had to worry about harsh luxury taxes the way Hal does. With each new collective bargaining agreement, baseball adds new measures to try and keep the Yankees from throwing their fiscal weight around - measures that the elder Steinbrenner himself made necessary in the eyes of other owners, by outspending the league's next richest haves by $50, $60 and $70 million annually. But knowing what we know about George it's hard to believe he'd have let his rivals stop him from doing things his way. If he was still at the helm, would Robinson Cano be a Yankee today? Would the team have passed on international imports like Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig? Would they have lost out in their pursuit of Cliff Lee or let Nick Swisher go with no replacement in mind?
Just 44 years old, Hal Steinbrenner could own the Yankees for a very long time. All in all I'm OK with that. At a basic level he's is largely what a pro sports owner should be. He's willing to spend a lot of money to succeed, even if his wallet isn't open quite as wide as his father's, and he doesn't get too involved in player decisions. Hal is not George, but then who is? Consider what Mets and Knicks fans have to deal with. Consider the threat of ownership by a faceless corporation, the likes of which would line up to buy the Yankees should the Steinbrenners ever decide to sell. Things could be a whole lot worse.
Wrist injuries are tricky and Mark Teixeira's still isn't 100% less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting.
Six months removed from wrist surgery that ended his season in 2013, Mark Teixeira is still expected to miss the first few spring training games with the Yankees after the team reports to Tampa for exhibition games next month. According to MLB.com's Yankee beat writer Bryan Hoch, Teixeira is still experiencing a bit of stiffness in his surgically repaired wrist while swinging off a tee and continued strengthening exercise.
The fact that this injury first occurred during spring training last year when Teixeira was taking batting practice for Team USA before the World Baseball Classic and is expected to carry over into 2014 spring training is kind of concerning, but maybe par for the course for wrist injuries. Hoch reports that Teixeira will start hitting full-speed pitches next month and expects that he'll be able to get into spring training games by the first week of March. In the grand scheme of things, missing a week of spring training exhibition games is nothing. The real concern is how much this injury will impact Teixeira over the course of the 162-game season.
Teixeira and his doctor expect that the wrist will begin to loosen back up into game shape with more regular use, hopefully indicating that Teixeira will continue to improve as the season progresses even if he isn't 100% back to normal on Opening Day. The Yankees got a glimpse of life without Teixeira last year when Lyle Overbay was the recipient of the vast majority of Teixeira's playing time at first base despite struggling for large portions of the season. With Overbay recently inking a deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, the backup first base job is still in question. The answer, whoever it may be, will likely not be someone who can boost the offense the way a healthy Teixeira can.
Wrist injuries are notoriously finicky and their effects can linger for a long, long time. If Teixeira missing one week of spring training games is the only residual impact on the 2014 squad, that will have to be considered a success. However, if this is only the first sign of a long season of flare ups and struggles from Teixeira as he tries to get his wrist back to where it was pre-injury, it could be another long season for the offensive production out of Yankees first basemen.
If there was bad blood between A-Rod and many players before due to his PED use, then you can bet your ass there's even more now given his recent lawsuit.
On January 13th, 40 players and board members of the MLB Players Association met on a conference call and requested that Alex Rodriguez be suspended from the union, according to Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. A-Rod recently sued MLB and the MLBPA due to a breach in conduct by inadequately representing him in court during the case that resulted in his 162-game suspension for 2014. MLBPA chief and former teammate Tony Clark has already said that was "inexcusable" for A-Rod to attack former chief Michael Weiner, who passed away in November, for supposedly failing to represent him.
Needless to say, the players in the union are furious that A-Rod would betray his "brothers," as Brown and Passan reported. Immediately after the start of the January 13th union meeting, a player asked union leadership if they could expel him from the union. Many other players agreed and not a single one of them defended A-Rod's lawsuit. Union leadership told them that unfortunately it was not possible for them to kick him out. One player summed up the call by saying, "We wanted to get on this call and not let him back. 'This is our game and we don't want you in it.'"
If A-Rod does indeed return for the 2015 season, players on the call hinted that there could be serious on-field repercussions for him, and one told Brown and Passan that A-Rod "needs to be scared of coming back and facing people he sued." Yikes. So basically, if A-Rod returns, expect more Ryan Dempster incidents. Lovely.
While it's disappointing that A-Rod is indeed suing the union, what the players seem to not realize is that if A-Rod wants to attempt to reverse his suspension, he has no choice but to sue the union as well as MLB (as noted by former lawyer Wendy Thurm on Twitter). Here's another former lawyer-turned-baseball writer, Craig Calcaterra, with more on the actual laws of the whole ordeal:
When union members sue their employer for breach of contract under section 301 of the LMRA, they must also state a prerequisite claim of breach of their union’s duty of fair representation. See Vaca v. Sipes, 386 U.S. 171, 186-87 (1967); Thomas v. United Parcel Serv., Inc., 890 F.2d 909, 914-16 (7th Cir. 1989). This is because ordinarily, union members must first use the grievance procedures specified in the CBA rather than directly sue the employer; only when the union has breached its duty to fairly represent the union members in that grievance process may the union members bring a claim against their employer. See, e.g., DelCostello v. Int’l Bhd. of Teamsters, 462 U.S. 151, 163-64 (1983).
It’s not a choice by A-Rod, and certainly not a "sin." His effort to sue MLB and overturn his arbitration award REQUIRES that he sue the union as well. If not, he has no claim at all.
Calcaterra also mentioned today that if the players were successful, they would have "functionally prohibited appeals from arbitrations." It seems like the players don't fully realize the potential repercussions of their actions, so it's probably a good thing that they have smarter guys than them running the show in the MLBPA.
Just add another dark chapter to the A-Rod saga with this whole story. It will be a great screenplay someday. Who will star as who though? If they don't get Joe Pesci to star as Joe Tacopina, then it will all be in vain.
Alex Rodriguez doesn't have a whole lot of friends left, and he's losing more by the day.
On the day suspended Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez announced his intention to sue the MLB Players Association, the group held a 90-minute conference call during which the overwhelming agreement was that Rodriguez should be expelled, reports Jeff Passan and Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports.
However, leaders of the union struck down the proposal -- not because they disagreed with the idea, per se, but rather because they did not believe it was legally possible to kick out one of their members. Even after that was expressed, players on the call repeatedly asked to make an attempt. According to the report, not one member defended Rodriguez's right to remain in the union.
Rodriguez had initially been suspended for 211 games for his part in the Biogenesis scandal. After a lengthy and messy appeals hearing, an independent arbitrator reduced the sentence to the full 2014 season. That, however, was not good enough for Rodriguez and he is now looking to take both Major League Baseball and the Players Association to federal court in an attempt to overturn his suspension.
In his suit, Rodriguez claims that the MLBPA had "completely abdicated its responsibility" to him during his hearings. It may be a tough sell for Rodriguez to win that case, however. The MLBPA apparently expected he might try to blame them in some way and thus hired their own lawyers to closely watch the appeal hearings and make sure the Association's legal duties to Rodriguez were fulfilled.
No player has been disallowed from the union since 1995, when "scab" players during the strike were denied the benefits that would typically be provided to them.
There hasn't been a lot of news in the baseball universe today as most wait for Masahiro Tanaka to decide on his team before Friday's 5:00 pm deadline. Rumors are abundant about which team will ultimately end up with the Japanese right-hander, but the fact that a physical has to be completed before the deadline means we should know more either tomorrow or Thursday.
While we wait for further information, why not hang around and discuss some baseball (or non-baseball) with the rest of Pinstripe Alley? Use this as your open thread for the night and feel free to discuss whatever you'd like.
Questions for the night:
1. Do you watch spring training games or do you wait until Opening Day?
2. If Mark Teixeira's wrist causes him to miss time in 2014, who should play first base in his absence?
3. Who do you think is the starting third baseman for the Yankees to begin the year?
4. Which team do you think has won the offseason so far? How will Tanaka's decision change that?
5. What player currently on the Yankees do you think is most likely to be traded between now and the deadline?
The former Dodgers skipper is not at all pleased with A-Rod's exploits.
Former Los Angeles Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda believes the 162-game ban imposed on New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez was not enough because of the disgraced third baseman's attempt "to ruin the game."
"He should have gotten more. What he's done? He's trying to ruin the game. You can't do that ... He's going to keep on trying to do something, but he's got a suspension. He should just sit back and fill it out."
The longtime skipper added that he once thought Rodriguez was "doing it legitimately," adding to his disappointment, which was seemingly already prevalent after his god son, Mike Piazza, fell short of Hall of Fame induction earlier in the month.
"You know there's one word that's beginning to be big in the voting, and that word is 'suspicion.' But they don't know for sure. How do you fix that? I don't know how you fix it."
More than suspicion surrounds A-Rod, which is why he is being forced to sit out the upcoming season. The slugger allegedly was involved in a pile of wrongdoing related to the Biogenesis scandal and has admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs earlier in his career.
Lasorda believes those transgressions should keep Rodriguez out of Cooperstown -- and result in a pitch to the kisser if he steps back into the batter's box:
"When someone breaks the rules, they don't belong in [the Hall of Fame] ... If I'm pitching and I know that guy up there is using that stuff, I'd hit him right in the mouth. I'd say, 'Go in and take another shot of it.'"
Rodriguez has filed two separate lawsuits against MLB and one against MLBPA as a result of the PED scandal and punishment as well as the ensuing ruling of arbitrator Fredric Horowitz.
The Yankees get the worst of both worlds by giving Tanaka an opt out clause after his 4th season in pinstripes.
I think that the first opt out I ever heard of was Arod's option in the Rangers deal that was traded to the Yankees. He, of course, had an MVP season and opted out of the richest contract in baseball history. The Yankees proceeded to bid against themselves to give him a new richest contract in baseball history. The results are ours until the close of the 2017 season.
Since then, the opt out has become a more and more common tool. CC Sabathia got one, and the threat of it turned into a one year, $30M extension on his existing deal. Zach Greinke got one from the Dodgers, as did Clayton Kershaw.
This is, perhaps, the worst concession in a deal the Yankees had to make.
Look, without Tanaka replacing Andy Pettitte, the Yankees look to me like an 85-win team. They are better than they were last year, but they played so far above their heads last year that they needed to improve the lineup in order to fight for third place in the AL East. With Tanaka, I think the Yankees have a shot at 90-93 wins; that's the wild card sweet spot.
But what it means for the Yankees is that if Tanaka is terrible, they're stuck for more than $22M per year until 2020. And if he's just ok, $22M until 2020. And if he's above average, $22M until 2020. And if he gets hurt, $22M until 2020.
But if Tanaka is great... If he's Yu Darvish... If he's an ace... If Tanaka is great, then he'll opt out at age 29. And he'll get a Clayton Kershaw deal that carries him into his late thirties.
So the Yankees have taken on 7 years and $155M worth of risk, and the upside is only 4 years of reward. It's a great deal for Tanaka. The Yankees are better off with him than without him. But, was at best, a necessary move. Certainly not a great deal for the Yankees.
At long last, the mission is complete. The Yankees have signed 25-year-old Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka to a seven-year, $155 million contract, putting the final nail in the coffin of Plan 189. The deal will pay Tanaka $22 million for the first six years and $23 million for year seven, an average annual value of about $22.14 million. Tanaka will also have an opt-out clause after the fourth year of his contract. That could be interesting and kind of scary since he would be entering his age 30 season after opting out.
The first takeaway is obvious: dear sweet fancy Moses, that's a lot of dough to drop on someone who has yet to throw a pitch in the majors. The Yankees needed a huge boost to their starting rotation though, and Tanaka's unbelievably great numbers in Japan and comparisons to a young Hiroki Kuroda definitely inspire confidence. Plus, he only turned 25 in November. The best is likely yet to come for Tanaka, and the Yankees' rotation looks a whole lot better with the quintet of Tanaka, Kuroda, CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda/David Phelps than it would have if both Pineda and Phelps were relied upon to occupy two rotation spots.
It's a great big pile of money that they gave Tanaka, but the new posting system assured us that it would be unlike any deal given to a Japanese pitcher before. I can almost assure you that if this system was in place two years ago, the Rangers or another team would have given a similar contract to Yu Darvish. As Pacific Rim scout David P. noted, the deal is an overpayment, but the Yankees needed to take a risk on young talent. Ultimately, here we are. Tanaka is a Yankee, and I am definitely happy about that. We'll have more content coming soon.
The top free agent pitcher, Masahiro Tanaka, has signed with the New York Yankees. Here is the fantasy impact.
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal was the first to report this morning that Masahiro Tanaka, the top free agent pitcher on the market this offseason, has signed with the New York Yankees for $155 million over seven years. As a Dodgers fan, I am a little disappointed, but they already have one of the better starting rotations in the game, so not signing him won't hurt them like it would the Yankees had he signed elsewhere. The Yankees were desperate for a top line starter and they got one.
His control is plus and he commands his fastball well to both sides of the plate, although he likes to pitch up with his fastball -- an approach that works in NPB but won't work as well in MLB, where more hitters swing for the fences rather than just for contact. I think he'll be the Yankees' best starter in 2014 and one of the top 20-25 starters in the league.
I probably won't change my ranking as a result of the signing or after reading the excerpt above, as I thought I was pretty optimistic as it is.
It is obvious that Tanaka should be owned in all leagues, and should be one of the top 20-30 starting pitchers off the board in most drafts. Then again, if you are in a league with a bunch of Yankee fans, he may go off earlier. He was 30th starting pitcher drafted in the recent FSTA draft of experts in Las Vegas, and the signing could boost his ADP as a result. You can read my write up on the FSTA draft here.
So, where are you comfortable drafting Tanaka this season? Let us know in the poll and comments below.
Finally, Plan 189 didn't stop the Yankees from making an upgrade they desperately needed.
The Yankees tried a season of budgetary restraint in 2013 that resulted in multiple positions being filled inadequately in order to position the team for a chance to stay under $189 million in payroll in 2014 that would allow them to avoid high penalties in luxury tax. You all know how that worked out. The 2013 season was one of misery in which a hot dog vendor might have been able to stick at third base and you or I would have likely been a better answer at catcher, ultimately resulting in the Yankees missed the playoffs for the second time since 2007. Was sticking to Plan 189 really worth it to the richest team in MLB?
After letting Robinson Cano leave for the Mariners on a ten-year deal, it looked like Plan 189 was still in play for 2014. Alex Rodriguez getting suspended for an entire season only helped that cause a little more. Fortunately, the Yankees don't seem to be in the business of losing any more than they have to. Making quick strikes in the offseason to bring in a huge upgrade at catcher in Brian McCann, signing Jacoby Ellsbury for the next seven years, and bringing in a man that has done nothing but hit in the postseason in Carlos Beltran, the Yankees seemed ready to blow the roof off Plan 189 in a hurry.
Bargain signings weren't far behind those big splashes. The Yankees bypassed the big names that might have served as their 2014 second baseman in favor of Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts. Eduardo Nunez may very well end up starting at third base on Opening Day against the Astros. Despite those concerns, the Yankees managed to take a risk that would completely put an end to the Plan 189 talk for the time being. For all the criticism that we lob the way of the Steinbrenners at times, this time they got it right.
Masahiro Tanaka coming to the United States in 2014 provided the team with a rare opportunity to land a 25-year-old pitcher that they didn't have to develop themselves. After watching pitching prospect after pitching prospect within their farm system fail, the Yankees had little choice but to pay the premium price of the open market in order to land a guy with Tanaka's upside. Having been burned by a Japanese pitcher once or twice already, the Yankees seemed a bit gun shy when it came to Yu Darvish's switch to the United States and it was reasonable to assume they might take the same position with Tanaka. The glaring holes in the rotation might have been enough to tip the scales in favor of taking the chance and abandoning Plan 189 altogether.
So, the Yankees landed their man. Any free agent, especially those who have yet to pitch in the United States, carries the risk of not living up to their contract. A new posting system in 2014 made obtaining Tanaka a little harder with more of the money going toward his contract, rather than his Japanese team. The posting fee in years past wasn't subject to the luxury tax the way Tanaka's seven-year, $155 million contract will be. Even with that change, the Yankees needed to supplement their rotation and were clearly uncomfortable with paying Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez the money they'd require to do it.
Tanaka comes with plenty of risk but the upside he carries is enough to hope, at least for today. Imagine if he's as good as he was in Japan. Imagine if he's even mostly as good as he was. The Yankees outbid everyone for the best pitcher available this offseason. After a year of pinching pennies, that feels pretty good. We'll all have time to worry about the x's and o's of Tanaka's adjustment to MLB and whether or not he'll live up to a massive contract that the Yankees had to dish out to get him. For today, it's time to be at least a little excited for what this means for our favorite baseball team and official say goodbye to Plan 189. May we never hear of it again.
The Yankees get their man, and maybe that will be enough.
After a build-up to rival that of a Star Wars sequel, Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka has signed with the New York Yankees. The terms: seven years, $155 million dollars -- or about $21.1 million a year -- with an opt out after year four. In a post-Clayton Kershaw world, the terms are almost unexciting, or would be if Tanaka had ever thrown a major league pitch in anger. He will be the eighth pitcher currently making $20 million or more a season (ninth if you round up Adam Wainwright). Overall, his deal is the fifth-largest ever given to any pitcher.
Tanaka, owner of that eye-catching 24-0, 1.27 ERA record in the season just past and a 99-25, 2.30 pitcher overall in seven seasons with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, will become the fourth Japan-born pitcher acquired by the Yankees, but only the third that they'll have broken in on their own -- the most successful by far, Hiroki Kuroda, was already a four-year major league veteran when the Yankees signed him as a free agent in November, 2012. The other two, Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa, were notable failures.
It should be noted that neither Irabu nor Igawa had numbers anything like Tanaka's. Still, each was highly touted in his own way, and their crashing on takeoff should serve as a warning that success in Japan does not automatically predicate success here.
By now you're probably as sick as I am of hearing pundits pontificate on Tanaka's stuff, his pitches, his workload, and how he compares to Yu Darvish. That he has signed only means that we now know where and in what color uniform he'll begin to answer those questions. If some of the evaluations are correct and Tanaka is more of a command-exploiting Kuroda than a Darvish, well, consider that Kuroda himself, 39 years old this year and coming off a 6.56 ERA in the final quarter of the season, re-signed for $16 million. The marginal cost of signing Tanaka, then, of a pitcher who stands a good chance of throwing 200 innings with a 3.30 ERA, then, is about $5 million a season, and that seems fair given that Tanaka is 14 years younger.
Some commentators have perceived Tanaka's opt-out after year four as a negative in the deal, but there is nothing wrong with a shorter-term deal that allows a reassessment when the player is verging on 30. Sure, the Yankees botched their last two opt-out situations, Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia pulling out of their contracts, but this situation is a little different. When a player 30 or older, as both Rodriguez or Sabathia were, opts out of a contract that would have taken them well into their decline phase and says, "Hey, sign me to an extension or I'm outta here," a team should say, "We thank you for your service,"hand them a gold watch, and immediately throw a party, because they've just done you a tremendous favor, saving you from your previous over-commitment. What you don't do is bend over and say, "Yes, sir. One contract taking you until you're 43 coming right up!" If someone wants to give Tanaka another seven years at $30 million per at that point, the Yankees can wish them good luck and whoever the best/youngest pitcher on the market is at that point.
There is always another player. When teams decide that they have to have this exact player and no one else will do, that's when they make self-defeating commitments.
The signing completes a reversal for the Yankees, whose conduct over the last couple of seasons has now been shown to be unnecessarily self-defeating. In the same way you can throw away a year of committed dieting in the space of a few reckless meals (Why, yes, I do think I will have that third slice of cheesecake!), the team inflicted a tedious season on its fans in pursuit of getting the budget beneath the luxury tax threshold only to toss away that goal after a rough season. That said, the Yankees were faced with some difficult choices that required that one-year gap to fix with optimal solutions. That is, signing Brian McCann is preferable to re-upping Russell Martin and as valuable as Nick Swisher can be, giving him a four-year (possibly five-year) deal beginning at 32 was an experiment best observed at a safe remove. The big-name players who went to other teams, such as Josh Hamilton, were likewise fraught with risk.
Josh Hamilton (Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports )
Still, if the budgetary goals were so easily thrown away, the Yankees could have stopped well short of Hamilton-type dollars and possibly still made the playoffs. Even with all the injuries, with Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez missing the bulk of the season, no catcher to speak of, CC Sabathia pitching like he had just woken up from a long nap, and Phil Hughes rehearsing his Twins box scores, the club still won 85 games. That's still fairly far away from the 92 wins it took to capture an AL Wild Card, but consider that the team went 17-13 in the first month after Rodriguez came off of the disabled list, tantamount to that 92-win pace. Rodriguez hit .294/.384/.477 to that point, before the injuries started pulling him down again, and that was such a reversal from the sub-replacement-level production the team had received at the hot corner that that one improvement alone was enough to swing them from the mediocre .518 team they had been that point into a team that had a chance at a postseason lottery ticket. When Rodriguez faded -- he hit .203/.337/.392 in September -- the team did too.
David Roberstson (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
We've always known that the cost of carrying even one replacement-level player could kill a team dead in a close race, and the Yankees were carrying more than one. Even then, though, they were probably just one player away, one good move the previous offseason, from making a strong run at October. If the commitment to $189 million was so ephemeral, if they were going to do a 180 and spend roughly $500 million the following winter, why tank a whole season? The lesson here is an old one: If you're already that close to the postseason, it's smarter to spend the extra dollars than not -- your Tanakabucks have the potential to pay greater dividends for the Yankees than they would have for (say) the Twins or Cubs.
All of that is in the past now. Tanaka goes on a pile that includes McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran. Unless he feels the burden of high expectations too keenly, or this is the season where fatigue from that aforementioned workload sets in, the Yankees rotation has been vastly improved. That doesn't mean that question marks don't abound -- in the bullpen, where David Robertson steps out of the setup role into the less-valuable yet higher-stress closer role, where there is only a patchwork at second and third bases, Kuroda has to show that his stretch run was not a harbinger of future thrashings, Sabathia has to rediscover his velocity, Ivan Nova his consistency, and so on.
So, don't go buying your postseason tickets just yet. Still, that's a one-year concern, not a four-year one. The Yankees' remodeling has left them older than ever, so more breakdowns, more patches, are on the way. In Tanaka the Yankees have added a younger piece who, barring injury, should be part of the solution set even as greyer heads come and go. That's a victory.
The Yankees have signed Masahiro Tanaka to a seven-year, $155 million contract to join their once-uncertain starting rotation. The Japanese right-hander joins CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ivan Nova for the 2014 campaign with a fifth starter that still needs naming. Out of those four he will be the youngest pitcher already pencilled in and will likely be younger than any of the options the Yankees have as a fifth starter.
CC Sabathia will remain the rotation's No. 1 starter and get the ball Opening Day, though there are certainly a lot of question marks surrounding him. He has once again lost a substantial amount of weight, or has simply trimmed down, as he puts it, but will that mean better success in 2014 than he showed in 2013? CC's lack of body mass could be causing his mechanics to go out of whack, resulting in his drop in velocity and arm slot. He will be a whole year removed from elbow surgery, so we'll see whether that was the cause of his struggles or if it was the weight loss. If he shows he can still be the ace the Yankees re-upped with then Tanaka is just gravy.
At this point Masahiro Tanaka will probably be slotted into the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind CC. He could end up being the Yankees' best pitcher this season, but keeping him out of the first spot could help deflect any pressure he might be feeling to live up to his contract or make an impression to all of Major League Baseball. He likely won't be the ace that Yu Darvish has been, but having a very good pitcher that doesn't have to be relied on to be the big man of the rotation, and at his age, will do a lot to add depth to the Yankees pitching staff. Brian Cashman finally has the No. 2 starter he has always wanted.
Hiroki Kuroda was essentially the ace of the Yankee staff last season with CC continuing to disappoint, however, his second-half fall has left the Japanese veteran with many questions that need answering. Will he be the first-half Kuroda or second-half Kuroda? Something in the middle? His 2014 performance is pivotal to the Yankees' hopes for a deep rotation. If he's on, the Yankees have three different ace-like pitchers, if not, then the rotation begins to fall apart in the middle and Tanaka will have to carry some extra weight.
With Tanaka in the fold, Ivan Nova will get pushed down to the No. 4 starter, taking a lot of pressure off him to hold the rotation together. It's kind of up in the air as to what kind of pitcher Nova can be on a regular basis; he's been awful, he's been hurt, and he's been amazing, all in the same season, so it's hard to tell what the Yankees will be getting from him. He ended the 2013 season on a high note, but were the changes he made permanent? If he can just be league-average or slightly above then thats all he needs to contribute.
The fifth start spot is still very much open, and now that Tanaka has been signed, the Yankees will likely want to keep that spot internal. If they hold a competition in spring training, the likely contestants will include Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, and possibly Manny Banuelos. If the Yankees can finally see some kind of contribution from Pineda it will be a miracle that his career wasn't wrecked by injury. Phelps will likely want another chance in the rotation after the mixed results he produced last year and Nuno could provide some solid production as another lefty in the rotation. ManBan might be returning to action after a year and a half off from Tommy John surgery, but he's likely to start the season in Triple-A over making the rotation out of spring.
I'll be rooting for Michael Pineda to return to form and provide some kind of value because I don't think Phelps is cut out for regular starting work. We'd all like to see ManBan make it, but I think he needs time to re-establish himself first before he makes the jump. Just imagine Pineda being good, though. How great of a rotation would Sabathia/Tanaka/Kuroda/Nova/Pineda be? The A's have it. Hopefully.
Ummmm guys, if you weren't willing to go over 5 years, you really weren't in on Tanaka.
Honestly, everyone knew Tanaka was going to get more than 5 years. Having a rule that excludes you from signing players is just stupid. I mean, it's fine to have a guideline saying you don't want to go more than 5 years, but any rule has to have exceptions. If you had some thoughts of being in on Tanaka, you really had to be thinking more than 5 years.
And I don't understand why the 'opt out' clause would be an issue now. That's something to worry about a few years from now. I can't see why that would be a reason to 'drop out of talks'. Aren't we in win now mode? You don't want to go more than 5 years, but you don't want to player to be able to opt out after 4? Oh well....
I think what the Yankees are paying is too much, but for the club to say the reason we didn't get him was the contract was 2 years too long is just dumb. What they are telling us is that they are not cheap, they are just slaves to their own stupid rule. Maybe, just an idea, we could deal with each player on a case by case basis, like, you know, intelligent people would. I mean, try to stay to 5 years, but be flexible if there is someone that you think is worth signing to a longer contract. .
Anyway...here are some Vegas odds related to Masahiro Tanaka:
Will Masahiro Tanaka win the win the 2014 AL Cy Young?
Yes 10/1
Total ERA in the 2014 Regular Season - Masahiro Tanaka
Over/Under 3.20
Total Wins in the 2014 Regular Season - Masahiro Tanaka
Brian Cashman took the time to answer questions from the media just after the signing of Masahiro Tanaka was announced and quickly made official. I had the awesome privilege to be on the call, so here are my notes for the Q&A:
When asked about when the Yankees decided to go over the 189 budget, Cashman reiterated that the plan was never to prevent the construction of a championship-caliber team. They felt the job wasn't done until they got Tanaka.
While he couldn't officially comment on the Yankees' plans for the rest of the offseason, he hinted that there would be no heavy lifting being done to improve the rotation from here. Probably meaning that they're out on Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez. If they do bring anyone in they will be focusing on cheaper options.
Tanaka has been on the Yankees' radar as far back as 2007. They have scouted him since then, first seeing him against MLB hitters in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. They sent scouts to 15 different games in 2013 and scouted him throughout Rakuten's playoff run.
Cashman said that negotiations were far too private to know what he preferred when asked whether he got a sense that Tanaka wanted to be a Yankee. He said that they had no sense that they were even in the finals until sometime last night. You should all be aware that he referred to the entire process as TANAKATHON!
He confirmed that the Yankees certainly have concern over the considerable mileage on Tanaka's arm, but he reminded everyone there there are always concerns with big contracts like this. Given his level of performance, his age, and the current state of the market, they were willing to take a chance on him.
Cashman believes that the new posting system created the environment that resulted in the highest guaranteed contract given to an NPB player. The teams used to have all the control, but the players, with the ability to negotiate, have turned the system upside down.
He was asked what has changed since Yu Darvish, but it was apparently nothing. They were very interested in Darvish, scouted him extensively, but the financial considerations were what led to them not getting him. Whatever that means. He reiterated that the ball, strike zone, talent level and pitching schedules are very different in Japan, so the Yankees wanted to be there as much as possible with Tanaka.
When asked how they evaluated his makeup, Cashman said they paid close attention to how he interacted with his teammates and the way he carried himself on the mound. They spoke with ex-MLB players who played with Tanaka in Japan (likely Andruw Jones and Darrell Rasner) and just tried to collect as much information on his as they could.
When asked whether the Yankees viewed Tanaka as an ace or as another part in the rotation, Cashman confirmed the latter. That said, they know he wants to prove he can be successful, so he could show ace-like abilities.
Asked how much better has the team gotten this offseason, Cashman said that they tried to address as many needs as possible. They had a lot of areas that needed improvement, but Hal opened the resources to make sure 2014 was better than 2013. With all the good teams in the American League, it really becomes a question of how much better.
The Yankees were told that they had the highest bid, but the other offers were very competitive and not very far off.
When asked if he was comfortable signing a player to a $155 million contract, Cashman stated that it's simply the cost of doing business. The highest talent costs a lot of money. #analysis.
He stated that he expects David Robertson to be the closer and remain the closer all season, but at the same time he will still have to come to spring training and earn the role. He couldn't confirm whether or not they plan to bring any more talent in to compete against him.
Brian Cashman believes that the bullpen and the infield are their two main concerns at this point. They have to hope that Brian Roberts, Derek Jeter, and Mark Teixeira can contribute consistently in 2014, so it's tough to determine whether they have a net gain this offseason. Their plan this year was to try and secure as much impact talent as they could fit and he wished that included Robinson Cano. In the end, they need everyone to maximize their potential and stay healthy to ensure that the gains outweigh the losses. So basically a lot of finger crossing.
The Yankees were invited to meet with Tanaka in Los Angeles for two hours and had to use that time to make their pitch to him. They told him the club's direction and brought in everyone they could that could help answer any questions he had and inform him what the Yankees are all about. Randy Levine, of all people, was there. So were Joe Girardi and Larry Rothschild, among others. They put a video together with a message from Hideki Matsui and had an "MTV Cribs-style" walkthrough tour of Yankee Stadium. This was a one-time meeting, so Cashman said they wanted to make sure they got their message across.
Right now he has no idea when Tanaka will come to New York. They had just finalized the contract on Tuesday night and still need MLB and the union to approve while also getting a work visa.
When asked about the opt-out clause in the final contract, Cashman made sure to tell everyone that it wasn't his idea. It was not in their initial offer, but Casey Close told him that it was an important component and was present in a lot of the other pitches. To him, it seemed like it was mandatory to have it included if they still wanted a chance to sign him.
The last question was about what the message to the fans was, with Cashman replying that they're always trying to make a Word Series winner. The Steinbrenners want to continue George's legacy of always trying to field a championship team, so the effort is always consistent.
What does the Internet think of the Tanaka signing?
The Yankees shattered the silence of a lazy, snowy morning with a big move, signing Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka to a seven-year, $155 million deal. Obviously, Twitter exploded with the news, though sadly @AROD has yet to comment on the matter or welcome Tanaka to the team. He must be the devil. There's no doubt in my mind that Randy Levine sent Tanaka a welcoming e-mail with many emoticons.
How's the owner of the Rakuten Golden Eagles feeling today? This contract tells me Yanks would have gone $70-80M in posting fee.
Former Yankees reliever-turned-analyst C.J. Nitkowski noted that Rakuten's owners probably aren't feeling too peachy about the lost revenue that they would have had under the old posting system. He makes a good point; considering the size of the Yankees' offer to Tanaka, how much would they have paid for exclusive rights to him to get him at a lower cost? Alas.
Yanks determined 2 return 2 playoffs. Deals w Tanaka, Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran, Kuroda, Jeter, Thornton, Roberts, Johnson, Ryan cost $503M.
Man, Godzilla is just the best, isn't he? The Yankees couldn't ask Hideki Matsui to contribute to their franchise's success much more than he already has after all the revenue brought in from Japanese media during his seven years in pinstripes and his World Series MVP performance in the Yankees' 27th title, but he's just the gift that keeps on giving.
As high as 4, as low as 7. @Jaypers413: Had he been eligible, about where would Tanaka have ranked on your top 100 prospects list? @Yankees
Jayson Stark remarked upon how Tanaka's contract stacks up with other big-money deals for pitchers out there. There's no doubt that the Yankees will have high expectations for Tanaka, but the good thing is that he's only 25 and not over 30, like the non-Kershaw/Felix pitchers on that list.
Not surprising to see the Dodgers and Cubs listed as serious contenders (though Tanaka would have reportedly left money on the table to go to L.A.), but wow, the White Sox and Astros? That would have been a stunner to see Tanaka end up there. Good for those two franchises to make efforts and prove to their fans that they are willing to spend money, especially the Astros. They apparently offered Tanaka $100 million. Maybe it was just due diligence to put on a charade of competition, but still.
How serious were Cubs about Tanaka? Deadly serious. Haven't confirmed this but the word is they went to $150 million. Likely runner-up.
Just in case you were worried that the Yankees were too concerned about the Tanaka competition, MLB.com columnist Phil Rogers discovered that the Cubbies put in a pretty lofty bid on Tanaka, too. The Yankees' foes for Tanaka were legitimate.
The Yankees may have not had the highest bid for Tanaka. Chose NYY anyway. Source says "I think he really decided he wanted to be a Yankee."
Number 18 is frequently the ace's number in Japan, but it's unclear if Tanaka will end up with that number since Hiroki Kuroda already wears it. Not a bad theory by Marchand though. Of course, I thought Nix was a lock for number retirement.
Larry Rothschild scouting Tanaka: "He's fastball, slider, split, throws a cutter and shows arm strength. He showed tenacity on the mound."
The final word goes to Pacific Rim scout David P., who has been a big promoter of Tanaka to the Yankees for at least a year and a half now. They did take big risk by signing a guy with no previous MLB experience to this deal, but for talent like that, you have to pay up. Here's to a successful seven years with Tanaka.
This offseason, the Yankees were like the Yankees of lore, signing pretty much whoever they pleased. With the addition of Masahiro Tanaka for 7 years and $155 million, their spending spree presumably finished, will it be enough to turn them into postseason contenders?
Before the offseason, Hank Steinbrenner made a lot of noise about getting under the $189 luxury tax threshold, which, after watching how the offseason played out, was either a) a baldfaced lie or b) he woke up one day and realized he just did not care, recognizing that there was so much money pouring into the most popular baseball team in the known universe, it really didn't matter.
Todd, the new clubhouse attendant: 4 years, $180,000
Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that adds up to 40,000 years and 20 trillion dollars.
Obviously, signing Tanaka provides a huge boost to the aging rotation. While his seven year, $155 million deal (more like $175 million when you factor in the $20 million paid to the Rakuten Golden Eagles), represents an enormous risk, Tanaka will only be 32 years-old when the contract ends, and that's assuming he doesn't opt out after the fourth season. But it also gives the Yankees rotation a young pitcher to build around, something they desperately needed.
CC Sabathia is coming off of the worst season of his career and will be 33. Hiroki Kuroda just had another solid season (3.31 ERA in 201.1 innings), but will be 39 years old. Ivan Nova will only be 27 and arguably had the best season among Yankees pitchers last year, but has yet to top 170 innings in a season. Add Tanaka into the mix, who could be a very solid #2 in the rotation in 2014, hopefully even better in the future.
The Yankees are clearly better with Tanaka than without. That's pretty obvious. But is it enough to make up for the holes in the infield?
First, obviously, everyone's favorite centaur, Alex Rodriguez, will be suspended for 2014. Say what you want about the man and how much he has left in the tank, but even during an injury-decimated 2013, he still hit .244/.348/.423, good for a 111 OPS+. The last time Kelly Johnson, the de facto third baseman for next season, had an OPS+ that high was in 2010 with Arizona.
The larger problem is the loss, or if you prefer, strategic non-retention of Robinson Cano. The Yankees, unwilling to top an offer of approximately $210 million, saw Cano sign with the Mariners for ten years and $240 million. It makes sense, the Yankees, who still have three years and $61 million being paid out to Rodriguez after he returns, did not want to be on the hook for a contract that would see Cano being under their employ until he was 40 years of age.
Still, over the last three years, Cano has hit .309/.371/.533 with 88 home runs. In that time span, he's been the fourth best player in baseball as measured by fWAR, averaging 6.3 per season, all the while playing above average defense.
And that's the big problem for the Yankees: infield defense. Tanaka and Kuroda are not big strikeout pitchers, relying more on weak contact induced from their splitters, and the Yankees infield defense will only be weaker next season.
Kelly Johnson's not a third baseman, playing only 118 innings there for his career, his best features his ability to play anywhere on the field.
Brian Roberts, signed to replace Cano, was once upon a time a solid defensive second baseman, but he'll be 36 years old and hasn't topped 300 plate appearances in a season since 2009. Every time he moves to field a ground ball, there's reason to worry that he'll tear a hamstring, strain a back muscle, or have his arm literally torn from socket, ending up in the third row behind first base after Roberts tries to turn a double play.
Derek Jeter, returning to the field after ankle and leg injuries limited him to only 73 plate appearances in 2013, will be back at shortstop next year. While Jeter has improved his positioning in recent seasons, stemming the tide of defensive criticism unfortunately he's 39 years old and his range is only shrinking. (Really, the Yankees' secret weapon is Brendan Ryan, champion of defense and protector of the realm. Ben Lindbergh's piece comparing Jeter to Ryan from over the summer is required reading.)
But this wasn't a zero sum game, Tanaka was not traded for Robinson Cano, nor was he the lone move of the ofseason. While Cano is gone, the Yankees upgraded in the outfield, trading in Vernon Wells and the ghost of Ichiro Suzuki for Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran.
They even took Chris Stewart and magically transformed him into Brian McCann.
Look at the list of 2015 free agents. Who would you rather sign than Tanaka or Ellsbury or McCann? Yes, the Yankees may miss Cano, but they used those funds to strengthen the team all over the field. And while the Yankees are still not locks to reach the postseason this year, their crop of signings, spearheaded by Tanaka, will not only be better for 2014, but for 2015 and beyond, too.
The Yankees needed some young talent and, without giving up draft picks or their limited prospects, that's what they got. Sure, it was expensive, but after all, it's only money.
BCB's Danny Rockett's updated ditty about the Tanaka Sweepstakes. Damn Yankees!
Well, it feels like it's the day after Christmas and all I got was a lousy sweater from my Aunt Charlene, while my rich cousin got two tickets to the Super Bowl. Meh. I don't care about football much anyway… But now that the Evil Empire has bought themselves yet another team, I thought it pertinent to update my post from earlier this morning -- and, of course, do a little hating on the New York Yankees in the process.
I've posted the lyrics below so you can sing along! Trust me! Singing will make you happier!!
Tanaka signed with Yankees The Cubbies lost the bidding war They’ve got Beltran and Ellsbury A-Rod's suspension let them offer more
Tanak-nak-naka’s gonna make 'em poor I’m glad he’s pitching in New York Seven years opt out after four Tanak-nak-naka’s gonna make 'em poor.
New York’s a real exciting town Buy sushi at any grocery store But Chicago’s pizza wins hands down New York slices taste just like cardboard
Tanak-nak-naka's gonna make 'em poor What if his rotator cuff tore? Goes on the DL like Mark Prior Tanak-nak-naka woulda made us poor
There’s Kosuke Fukudome His batting average was so low Just cause the guy is Japanese Doesn’t mean he’s Ichiro!
Tanak-nak-naka woulda made us poor First we need some cash from a scoreboard God! This off season's has been a bore! Tanaka-nak-naka woulda made us poor!
The Yankees added Masahiro Tanaka and killed Plan 189 in the process, but what do you think of the Yankees' newest acquisition?
The Yankees crossed another name off their winter shopping list with the signing of Masahiro Tanaka. The Japanese pitcher signed a seven-year $155 million contract with the Yankees, which includes an opt-out clause after the fourth year. In addition, $20 million will be paid to Tanaka's now former team, the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.
As the Yankees head to the checkout, with a now almost-full cart, it's time to ask: what do you think of the move?
Last year, in the Pacific League of Japan's NPB, Tanaka had a 1.27 ERA in 27 starts. He also went 25-0 in the 2013 season while helping his team to their first ever Japan Series championship. In his seven-year career in NPB, the 25-year old had a 2.30 ERA and a 1.108 WHIP.
Seven years and $155 million is undoubtedly a lot of money for someone who had never pitched in the major leagues. However, this contract is a bit different in that it will begin in Tanaka's age 25 season, which is something that can't really be said about most big money signings.
Also, there is the opt-out clause. That could have the potential to burn the Yankees, should Tanaka live up to his potential. But as our own Jason points out, Tanaka would still be fairly young and the Yankees will have some money lying around if and when that happens. If Tanaka were to opt-out, that would probably mean he thinks he can get more than the $22 million per year in this current deal. If that's true, then the Yankees probably just got four seasons of some pretty great pitching, and that's certainly not a bad thing.
With all that in mind, what's your opinion on this move? Vote in the poll below and leave a comment telling us how and why you voted the way you did.
In signing Masahiro Tanaka, the New York Yankees are likely to benefit from increased revenue from Japan -- but not as much as they enjoyed by signing Hideki Matsui.
With their reported seven-year, $155 million deal with Masahiro Tanaka, the New York Yankees will be hoping to increase revenue, both in existing revenue streams and new ones. A star player is a strong marketing tool, and if he makes the team better on the field, the increased winning percentage could also increase attendance. But will Tanaka's new team enjoy new revenue streams from Japan? The examples of Hideki Matsui, Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke Matsuzaka provide some guidance.
The Yankees will not enjoy additional international broadcast or marketing revenue, at least not directly -- MLB has those rights, and the proceeds are distributed to all 30 clubs evenly. Instead, we're looking at advertising, corporate sponsorships, and ticket sales to tourists from Japan. With only a few players to study and no access to teams' financials, it's extremely difficult to reach any definitive conclusions about the extent to which a Japanese baseball star could increase revenue for a team through these Japanese sources. In a Harvard Business School working paper, however, Isao Okada and Stephen A. Greyser gave it a try.
I have trouble trusting in the conclusions reached by Okada and Greyser, in part because they seem to rely on a haphazard collection of anecdotal reports which are hard to compare to each other. Nonetheless, they marshal enough figures to be persuasive on the general point of financial benefits, and some of the seven criteria they identify seem intuitive, especially in light of the Yankees' history with Matsui. The three most significant factors appear to be the player's popularity in Japan before the move to MLB, whether the team and player enjoy high levels of performance, and whether the player is a position player or pitcher.
Player's popularity in Japan
Okada and Greyser credit Red Sox COO Sam Kennedy with the observation that "Japan is a much more 'player-oriented' market than the U.S." This could be partly due to the popularity of the high school baseball tournament in Japan, and the speed with which many Japanese players ascend to NPB. Before he was posted, Ichiro's legend was already enormous (partly on the back of seven consecutive batting titles), and as the best hitter on NPB's most popular team, Matsui was also already an icon.
Tanaka's youth is part of his allure, and a big part of why he warranted such a lengthy, lucrative deal with the Yankees. But it also cuts against him in terms of popularity -- Tanaka only rose to an elite level in 2011, and so it may be that his stardom in Japan is likewise young. While Tanaka's 2013 was particularly amazing (24-0 in 27 games started), it probably did not help that he was pitching for NPB's newest team. Tanaka's popularity probably lags behind that of Ichiro and Matsui.
Team and player performance
For the Mariners, it certainly helped that Ichiro set the league on fire from the date of his arrival, winning the AL MVP in 2001. For the Yankees, Matsui never did emerge as an MVP contender (his best finish was 14th, in 2005), but he still posted four seasons of 20 or more home runs (and a fifth for the Angels). On the team side, though, the Yankees certainly did better: they averaged over 97 wins per season during Matsui's tenure, whereas in Ichiro's eleven full seasons with Seattle, his team averaged less than 80 wins (although the Mariners' 116-win 2001 may have crystallized something).
More to the point, according to Okada and Greyser, the Yankees are "the most popular [MLB] team in Japan." The Yankees of late have not been the Yankees of old, but with no losing seasons since 1992 and playoff berths in 17 of the last 19 seasons, the club seems poised to perform nearly as well as it did during the Matsui seasons.
Position player vs. pitcher
Here's where things get more complicated. One of the big reasons why the Red Sox did not enjoy a large revenue bump by signing Daisuke Matsuzaka seems to be that Matsuzaka played only once every five games. This seems to have a particularly large impact on ticket sales (and on-site merchandise sales), but in the opinion of Okada and Greyser, the fact that Matsuzaka only played once every five games also caused sponsors to hesitate to place advertisements at Fenway Park.
I'm not sure what to make of the Matsuzaka lesson, as the situation of the Red Sox appears to be a perfect storm of bad ways to commercialize a baseball star from NPB (in Japan), but there's definitely something here. It's one thing to have a single favorite pitcher if you live near the stadium, and it's not necessary to buy tickets well in advance of the game. For fans to come from Japan to see Tanaka at Yankee Stadium, they'd almost certainly have to book a trip for an entire week's worth of games. That's a pretty sharp contrast to Matsui, who despite missing time in 2006 and 2008, was a good bet to be playing; in fact, Matsui played all 487 of the Yankees' games from 2003 to 2005.
Other factors
Okada and Greyser identify four other factors that they think could affect a team's ability to gain additional revenue from Japan by signing a baseball star from NPB: distance from Japan, whether or not there are non-stop flights, the size of local Japanese community, and whether or not there are other tourist attractions in the destination city.
All four of these factors seem likely to impact ticket sales/tourism more than sponsorship or advertising. And on the whole, New York does very well; the significant number of direct flights to Japan should neutralize the fact that New York is farther away from Japan than several other U.S. cities, and New York is probably unrivaled as a tourist destination. In addition, according to the research of Okada and Greyser, New York has the second-largest Japanese-American population of any city in the country (behind Honolulu), and the second-largest number of residents who are Japanese citizens (behind Los Angeles).
Conclusion
The New York Yankees certainly have a better handle on what makes sense for them financially than I do, even more so than some of the other clubs that were competing for Tanaka's services. They have seven years' worth of information on how Hideki Matsui helped them gain additional sponsorships and sell more tickets. As the Okada and Greyser paper details, the benefits to the Yankees from signing Matsui were significant.
Even with Ichiro still on the team, however, it may be that signing Tanaka will serve primarily to maintain the Yankees' current sponsorship arrangements with Japanese companies and its partnership with Yomiuri Shinbun, instead of opening up new revenue streams. The impact on ticket sales may be relatively minimal, although travelers from Japan who book week-long trips would have plenty to do in the city on days when Tanaka is not pitching.
Okada and Greyser note that according to one estimate, the "overall economic effect on the New York area" of signing Matsui might reach $100 million per year. The impact of signing Tanaka appears likely to be far less, although in terms of banking on revenue from Japan, it may be that no team is better situated than the Yankees.
David Roberstson (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
