SB Nation | Tyler Drenon: There's likely no end in site for the A-Rod suspension case because he could always go to federal court if he doesn't like the decision.
Batting Leadoff | Matt Provenzano: A new way to look at ISO that can be weighted to more correctly determine a player's isolated power.
CBS Sports | Brian Stubits: New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist will wear a mask featuring Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio for the Stadium Series game at Yankee Stadium.
Let's resolve to start all over make a new beginning..........Now don't get me wrong - I love life and living..........But when you wake up and look around at everything that's going down..........All wrong..........You see we need to change it now, this world with too few happy endings..........We can resolve to start all over make a new beginning
Have you ever gone to one of those great neighborhood New Year's Eve parties carrying a few choice bottles of Russian River Supplication, only to see it devoured before the balance of attendees can return to attacking their six-packs of Corona? I did. I hate New year's Eve parties. The only positive comes at midnight when, by virtue of living in Santa Ana, the world outside turns gloriously into a ghostly re-enactment of Battle of Shiloh.
Anywho, that is now behind us. Just as are the last three seasons. Thankfully, you are all still here. Ladies and gentlemen, we can rebuild this franchise. We have the technology. We have the capability to build the world's most successful baseball team this year. Welcome to 2014!!
Joe Blanton: Angels News!! Alden Gonzalez tweets that, in his opinion, the Halos would plan on bringing Blanton back to Spring Training if they cannot find one more proven starter. Looking to trade him at the last minute is shave some cost. So this news is, then, little more than status quo. But it represents some hopeful thinking by SOMEBODY, at least. Hopeful that Blanton looks great in ST, for one thing...
Mark Mulder: With the Minor League contract & ST invite signing of Mulder, which feels to me more like the 2014 episode of The Ryan Madson Story, Mulder will most likely start hitting the top of everyone's winter list of Comeback Player Of The Year prospects. "While baseball will spend the next month figuring out which MLB team wins the right to pay a star from Japan upward of $100 million, it's Mulder and his maybe $1 million contract that might just become the most interesting signing of baseball's offseason. We love an underdog, don't we?"
Carlos Ramirez: Young Carlos really needs to work on his media strategy awareness. When you have bad news about you coming out, you really want it to hit the media late on a Friday, and when the world is mesmerized by something more exciting elsewhere. Like a Super Bowl or something. You don't let it happen when there a bazillions of sports news cycles thirsting for any drop of any kind of news. But there it is. Let's turn our attention to a more topical angle, as MH252525 introduced yesterday. Because the official MLB announcement was "a drug of abuse in violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program", as Alden tweets this clearly means that it was not PEDS, but something that the real world has declared illegal and, therefore, MLB added it to their own books. So here is the MH252525 topical part: with the legalization of pot, in the state of Colorado for example (where maybe only pro athletes can now afford the stuff!), doesn't this make the offical MLB list of "drugs of abuse" now a moral one, instead of a technical one? And, if yes, is it the role of MLB to play moralist? Hmmm...
Math: This interests me. In reviewing the best and worst player contracts for each AL team, The Sporting News sums up the Angels as Ibanez versus Pujols. Now, on the surface this is a no-brainer (as long as you ignore the incredible value that comes from Mike Trout's current contract). But here's what I find intriguing: Ibanez is 41. Pujols is (purportedly) only 33. If Pujols is still putting up 29 home run seasons in 2021 (like Ibanez just did in his age 40 season), will average player salaries close the gap by then and make this contract seem not as bad in that year as it looks from this direction? How much? Enough to giggle at the thought of $5MM in 2014 MLB Monopoly dollars versus $30MM in 2021 MLB Monopoly dollars? Remember, in today's dollars these two contracts are considered as far apart as it is possible to get on the LA Angels.
Buy Stuff - Crazy-ass Baseball Finds On the Internet:
How about a cap older than grandpa? Lost up in Canada, the owner claims this cap to be vintage, and not a reproduction. My mind boggles at the claim: "Stored well for 75 years." I mean, like, has this dude had any other calling in life than to ensure that this cap has been stored, and stored well, and repeated this duty daily for 3/4 of a century? How, if only it didn't look like an NFL ref's cap...
John Heydler, born in 1869, also grew into his role of influence by starting as a major consumer of baseball stats. His direct participation didn't start until he was assigned by to go out and cover a few games of the local Washington Senators. He quickly was tabbed as that paper's full-time baseball writer. By his mid-thirties Heydler had developed a reputation for being a stickler for accuracy, and comprehensive in his statistical reviews and details. The then-President of the National League, Harry Pulliam, hired on Heydler for the explicit purpose of culling through all the published game logs, cleaning up the data, and publishing official league statistics. So Heydler, starting as League Secretary in 1903, became the first author of the Official stats. And Heydler's rise came at a most opportune time.
Statistics being kept at that time were very arcane, and inconsistent. And there was a great deal of debate over which stats were of value. Harry Chadwick, still all-powerful and in his 80's, happened to hate the very popular Earned Runs Allowed. In Chadwick's world, pitching data should not be conflated with anything that might be considered data from the defense behind the pitcher. Chadwick insisted that runs should only be earned when they were the result of a base hit, and not because of bases stolen. Because of items like this, Chadwick refused to print ERA anywhere. And Chadwick worshipped, instead, pitcher Wins. Other publications manufactured all kinds of bogus sums in an effort to measure the growing effectiveness of pitchers and their impact on the game.
Heydler, half the age of Chadwick, waited patiently for Chadwick to pass from the scene. This occurred in 1908 when Chadwick would die as the result of pneumonia after catching a game in inclement weather. Heydler pounced. Not only would Heydler, leveraging the powers of his official capacity, return ERA to preeminence, but by 1912 Heydler had recognized that the game had changed enough such that pitchers might not pitch entire games. And thus it was John Heydler who instituted the methodology of dividing the runs earned by innings pitched, and then multiplying back out by 9 to get the version of ERA that we use today.
Yes. You read that correctly. In today's media many old guard scribes and ill-informed fans - not to mention Harold Reynolds - still cling to a notion that Wins defines pitching greatness. This is an idea that actually died a fair death in the early 1900's, and was supplanted by the metric of ERA. And it is ERA that had once been the revolutionary idea and now, 100 years later and after standing the test of time, ERA being dismissed in favor of Wins in the current Jack Morris HoF debate, with ERA being tossed into the bag of tricks belonging to basement nerds.
Hall Of Fame: This is your last weekend to pop your pocorn and fill out your ballots, folks! Here is a chance to compare some stats. Next Wednesday the official results will be announced. My guesses (NOT my vote!) are: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas getting in easily. (In fact, the writers might even slip up and accidentally give Maddux the first unanimous ballot.) Craig Biggio will slip in despite Murray Chass. Mike Piazza I figure to be 50/50. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will begin their climb towards eventual enshrinement. And Jack Morris will barely miss the final cut, feeding the old guard press all the chum they need while they wring their hands on the long road to the Veterans Committee.
A-Rod: Maybe on the very same day (unless Uncle Bud intervenes so that the HoF gets the stage all to themselves for one day), the arbitrator in the suspension appeal case of ARod versus MLB will be announcing his decision. It matters not which way that particular wind blows, it shall blow a foul smell for all of us. Methinks it might be a major subject of my post next Friday...
Baseball Biz:The Phillies have jumped aboard the TV Contract Gravy Train. "Calkins Media has learned those terms include a contract believed to be in the 20- to 25-year range. Financial terms have been kept secret, but one source referred to the deal as "massive." That would fall in line with some of the other deals around the country that MLB franchises have agreed to for local rights fees." Regular readers of WeekEnd Links will know that we report as much news about the TV contract phenomenon as we can find. The last bit of news here was that recent pressures may be rising in the political arena which would threaten to undercut the value of these contracts. But, in the meantime, Philadelphia might just have found a way to "Albert Pujols" their way into the lead in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes. "The Phillies will not start their own network, but still likely get the financial windfall many expected. While the Los Angeles market is bigger, Philadelphia’s deal could be close to that money."
Video Of The Week
(Back in the day when men were men. They smoked no matter what they were doing. They walked out of the stands and onto the field as if they owned it. They took what they wanted. And they wore plaid bell bottoms...)
And now, being the full service weekend linkage institution that we are, here is the obligatory moment we take out of each Friday...for beer...
(In this most festive time of year, Beer Holidays are few and far between. Enjoy the bonuses!)
Friday: Zippo
Saturday: Zippo
Sunday: Zippo
BEER PUZZLE OF THE WEEK: To be classified as a microbrewery, what is the annual bottle limit for production? 4,999, 9,999, 14,999 or 19,999? [The answer to last week's puzzle question is: TRUE. Triple Bock was an experimental ale release only in 1994, 1995 and 1997. There was so much maple syrups used in the brewing process that each bottle contained 340 calories!]
(3) Bucky F'in Dent: 55% (4) Reggie homers thrice in '77 World Series Game 6: 45%
1980-99
(3) Leyritz homer ties '96 World Series Game 6: 64% (1) Cone's perfecto: 36%
2000-present
(1) Aaron Boone: 85% (2) Late-game '01 World Series heroics: 15%
Semifinals
Fouding-1979
(1a) Gehrig's "Luckiest Man" speech vs. (3b) Bucky F'in Dent
1980-present
(3c) Leyritz homer ties '96 World Series Game 4 vs. (1d) Aaron Boone
Click to embiggen
***
So the semifinals are set with the Luckiest Man speech taking on the Bucky Dent game and Jim Leyritz's pivotal '96 series homer against Aaron Bleepin' Boone. We'll be back next week with both these matchups and the final on Wednesday.
Thanks for your participation throughout this tournament. It wouldn't be possible without it. Keep up the great work!
Sam McDowell had one-half of a Hall of Fame career, but then everything unraveled, on and off the field.
Samuel Edward McDowell (Sudden Sam)
Starting Pitcher, 1961-1971
Height: 6'5" Weight: 190 lbs
Throws: Left; Bats: Left
How Acquired: Amateur Free Agent, prior to 1960 season
Left Via: Trade, November 29, 1971: Traded to theSan Francisco Giantsfor Gaylord Perry and Frank Duffy
Sam McDowell was born and raised in Pittsburgh, one of six children, and was a natural athlete, starring in four sports during high school. It was his blazing fastball that attracted the most attention though, and scouts waited impatiently for him to graduate so they could offer him a professional contract. McDowell graduated from Central Catholic High School in 1960, and since the MLB draft didn't exist in those days, you could choose which team you went to, if you were good enough. McDowell was plenty good enough, and more than half the teams offered to sign him. He was 6'5", threw in the mid-90s, had outstanding athleticism, and most importantly, threw left-handed. Baseball is game that treasures rare skill and tool combinations, and a big left-hander who can throw the ball by batters is one of the rarest combinations.
The Indians, who had just missed out on the AL pennant in the previous season, were the club that landed McDowell, ponying up $75,000 (close to $600,000 in 2013 dollars) to sign with the organization. He was good enough to go straight to the majors at age 17, but his parents wanted him to go to the minors first so that he'd have to earn his way to the big leagues. He spent that summer in Lakeland, Florida, where despite some control problems, he showed enormous promise. He spent most of 1961 in Salt Lake City, but before the end of that season he made his MLB debut as an 18-year-old.
The Phenom
It would take McDowell several seasons to really stick in the big leagues, as he struggled with the strike zone, so he he would play at least a portion of the 1962, 1963, and 1964 seasons in AAA. Going into 1964, it seemed like he'd start the season in Cleveland, but the Indians decided that the young left-hander needed just a big more seasoning in the minors. As it turned out, Sam was ready for the big leagues, and he dominated AAA hitters, striking out 102 in 76 innings (12.1/9) and allowing an incredible 4.0 H/9, along with a very nice 2.8 BB/9. After May 1964 he would not appear in the minors again.
The Indians, who in the 1940s and 1950s were one of baseball's best franchises, had fallen into mediocrity in the 1960s. But their scouting staff was still bringing in outstanding talent, especially pitching talent. Future Hall of Famer Early Wynn, who had retired the season before, was the pitching coach for the Tribe in 1964, and he brought his aggressive pitching style to the young and talented staff under his care. Along with the 21-year-old Sam McDowell, also on that team were Luis Tiant (Age 23), Tommy John (Age 21), Sonny Siebert (Age 27), and Mudcat Grant (Age 28). Jack Kralick was the veteran of the staff, having been acquired the previous season for Jim Perry, yet another young starter.
"Sudden Sam"
But Sam McDowell stood out among all that talent. He was given the nickname "Sudden Sam" early in his professional career. The name fit him, and soon Sam was more a middle name than a first name. McDowell's fastball was considered one of the fastest in the game at the time, with only Sandy Koufax's mentioned in the same breath. Once Sam started to find the strike zone with some regularity, the strikeouts began to pile up at a prodigious rate. Early Wynn preached the effectiveness of the high fastball, and McDowell combined his upper 90s heater with a 12-to-6 curve ball and a good slider. That, combined with his effective wildness made him as intimidating a pitcher as there was in the big leagues.
In 1964 McDowell led the league in strikeouts per nine innings with 9.2. In 1965, he led the league again with 10.7 K/9, which setting a major-league record, and in total strikeouts (325). McDowell would never reach Bob Feller's team record of 348 strikeouts, but he was striking out batters at a much higher rate than Feller, and ranks second only to Herb Score among Indians for career strikeout rate.
Missed Opportunities
With McDowell, Siebert, and Tiant, the Indians had the makings of a dominating rotation, a next-generation version of Feller/Lemon/Wynn/Garcia, if you will. But those mid-to-late 60s clubs never really competed for a pennant because either the offense was bad or there were too many injuries. In 1965 the Indians finished 87-75 but that was only good for 5th in a top-heavy AL. In 1966 they finished at .500 largely because of the offense. The front office tried to fix the offense, but the team could never put things together during that 1965-1969 stretch. Both Tiant and Siebert were traded in separate deals after the 1969 season, and for all intents and purposes the window had closed.
McDowell was still only 27 years old in 1970, and although the club was falling quickly to the bottom of the AL, he was at the top of his game. In 1968, The Year of the Pitcher, he posted 165 ERA+ and a K/9 of 9.5. The following year, the mound was lowered, but he didn't seem affected by the change, as he once again led the league in strikeouts and K/9, earning the fourth of his six All-Star appearances along the way. In 1970, as he added a high win total to his normal ERA and strikeout totals, he was in contention for the AL Cy Young Award, but lost out in a close race to both Jim Perry and Dave McNally.
A Sudden End
The wheels would soon come off what up until then was a very promising career. Through his Age 28 season (1970) McDowell looked on pace to eventually reach the Hall of Fame. He had struck out almost 2,000 batters in just under 1,900 innings, and it looked like he would eventually pass Walter Johnson's career strikeout record, which had remained in place for over four decades, but injuries and off-the-field problems quickly ended McDowell's career. Over the past couple seasons McDowell's drinking problems had turned into full-fledged alcoholism, and that led to problems with the team. A contract dispute combined with off-field incidents (including "rowdyism" on a team bus) led to the Indians placing him on the trading block after the 1971 season.
As you can imagine, several teams bid on the now 29-year-old flamethrower, with the San Francisco Giants winning the bidding by sending Gaylord Perry (ranked #23 on our Top 100 Indians list) and Frank Duffy to the Indians. The deal turned out to be a great one for the Indians, as Perry would have 3.5 great seasons with the Indians, and the Giants would come to regret the trade, as McDowell, after 1.5 injury-plagued and controversial seasons, would be dealt to the New York Yankees. But he wasn't used regularly, and was released after the 1974 season. He pitched briefly with the Pittsburgh Pirates, his hometown club, in 1975, but was released in June.
A Save
Normally a pitcher like McDowell would get no shortage of opportunities to regain his form, as in 1975 he was only 32 years old. But his alcoholism scared away clubs who otherwise would have given him a chance. McDowell's career was done, but the most important events in his life would be yet to come. In 1980, with the support of his family, he entered a rehabilitation clinic in Pittsburgh. He came out of the clinic sober, and would devote his life to counseling other athletes with drug and alcohol addictions. He currently lives in Clermont, Florida.
A bit of trivia: the character of Sam Malone, an ex-pitcher turned bar owner in the classic TV show Cheers, was based on Sam McDowell
C.C. Sabathia had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2013, giving up a boatload of home runs along the way. Will Sabathia cure his long-ball troubles in 2014 and bounce back in the process? Or has Father Time finally caught up with the left-hander?
2013 was a tumultuous year for C.C. Sabathia and the Yankees. After recovering from offseason elbow surgery, the left-hander had an abbreviated spring training and, to put it kindly, a bumpy season in pinstripes.
Unlike nearly every other Yankee, Sabathia stayed healthy, logging over 200 innings for the seventh straight season. However, nothing was more troublesome -- at least for New York’s immediate prospects -- than Sabathia’s performances on the mound throughout the summer. He struggled mightily in 2013, finishing with 2.7 WAR (the lowest total of his career), his lowest strikeout rate since 2005 (19.3%), and a 4.10 FIP, his highest in 10 seasons.
When looking at Sabathia’s numbers, though, what really sticks out is the extreme 13.0% HR/FB rate he allowed last year. The mark is nearly four percent more than his career HR/FB rate, and in most situations, one would expect Sabathia’s long-ball tendencies to regress significantly back towards league average.
Yet a few circumstances surrounding the big lefty make such an assumption tenuous at best. First, as many have noted over the past 12 months, Sabathia’s velocity is trending in the wrong direction, especially over the last three years:
Couple this with his age (he turns 34 in July) and the 2,775 innings Sabathia has pitched (third-most among active hurlers), and there is little denying he is entering the time frame in which pitchers begin to decline, sometimes rapidly.
Even more troubling is that Sabathia had a similarly extreme HR/FB rate in 2012, making 2013 look like less of an outlier than it first appears. In fact, over the past two seasons, Sabathia has the 10th-highest HR/FB rate in the majors. He has given up more home runs since 2012 than pitchers like Ryan Dempster, Jeremy Hellickson, and Mike Leake.
What is difficult to parse out is how much of Sabathia’s long-ball struggles are due to his decline as a pitcher and how much can simply be explained away as fly-ball randomness. Has Sabathia’s velocity decrease left him with much less margin for error, allowing opposing hitters to more consistently square the ball up against him? Or has he simply been the victim of an unsustainable amount of balls leaving the yard?
Well, his BABIP in 2013 was an above-average .308, suggesting he may have allowed more hard contact than normal. But his line-drive and fly-ball rates weren’t that different from his career norms, and Sabathia’s 2012 BABIP (.288) was much closer to league average despite all the home runs he gave up.
In addition, as ESPN Home Run Tracker shows, many of the home runs off Sabathia last season weren’t exactly gargantuan blasts. Just eight of the 28 home runs that Sabathia allowed traveled over 400 feet. Ten of them, moreover, could be characterized as "Just Enough," which means the ball cleared the fence by "less than 10 vertical feet, or that it landed less than one fence height past the fence," according to ESPN Home Run Tracker.
Even so, Sabathia pitches in the homer-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, a park that has proven to be a poor fit for other Yankee pitchers in recent seasons. That reality is inescapable, regardless of how much improvement we can project for Sabathia in 2014.
Ultimately, the 34-year-old will be an interesting case study in the season ahead. A pitcher’s HR/FB rate is a fickle animal, often shifting and fluctuating at a moment’s notice. Sometimes elevated home run rates portend a hurler whose luck will soon change for the better. Sometimes they simply mean the pitcher isn’t fooling anyone anymore, which makes New York’s burly southpaw even more of a question mark.
One part of me says Sabathia, without any offseason surgery holding back his preparation, is primed for a bounce-back year; the other is alarmed by all the warning signs that surround a pitcher entering his mid-30s. Given how extreme Sabathia’s home-run problems were in 2013, his fortunes on fly balls will likely improve this season.
The question is how much will Sabathia improve, and, factoring in the influence of Father Time, how long will it last?
Alex Skillin is a writer and editor at Beyond the Box Score and also works as a Web Editor for SoxProspects.com. He writes, mostly about baseball and basketball, at a few other places across the Internet. You can follow him on Twitter at @AlexSkillin.
The Yankees have signed Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran to fill out an already stacked outfield. Those two will join Brett Gardner, Alfonso Soriano, and, at least for now, Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells. While Ichiro is still owed $6.5 million and has use as a fielder and pinch runner, Wells is the more likely out of the two to be cut.
That doesn't mean that Wells will go quietly. He spoke on MLB Network Radio about his 2013 season and his future in the game, saying "hopefully I'll get one more year...I had so much fun. My family had fun. It's a truly unique experience."
He isn't delusional about his chances, but he also isn't worried about what happens.
"There's possibly one spot up for grabs in the outfield," Wells said, "depending on if there are any moves made between here or there. But I've learned not to concern myself with things I have no control over. All I can control is getting ready for spring training and going in, and being ready to help the team in whatever way I can. Whatever role that I end up playing, whether it's there or somewhere else, I have to be ready and ready to produce."
The Yankees are only paying $2.4 million for Wells in 2014, so they can easily cut ties with him. The only reason they have kept him around this long is because he bats right-handed and they need people who can (potentially) hit lefties. They also just really like old people too.
Aside from Masahiro Tanaka and the big three MLB free agent pitchers, who's left for the Yankees to take a look at to fill out the staff in free agency?
The Yankees are suddenly being very picky when it comes to filling out their starting rotation. Supposedly it's Masahiro Tanaka or bust, leaving Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ervin Santana to look towards the 29 other teams for contracts. Now I'll believe it when I see it, but the team seems intent on allowing two from their group of young starters to fill out the rest of the rotation if they lose the bidding on the star Japanese import. This would be mostly a positive change from years past when the team would continually trot out ineffective veterans rather than give their young hurlers a chance. But with some injury concerns and/or small samples of major league work in play, it might serve the Yankees to bring in a veteran to shore up the backend just in case. Here are some of those lesser (i.e. cheaper) vets still available not named Bronson Arroyo.
Hammel is young at 31, so of the vets on this list he may be most likely to receive more than a one-year deal, but he could still very well be worth it. His '13 campaign was nothing special and his home runs allowed were up, but he was worth 2.6 fWAR in only 111 innings in 2012 and is a good candidate for a bounceback season. The Yankees would be smart to keep an eye on him as the bidding for the big pitchers gets underway.
Capuano is 35 and unremarkable, but he's generated at least 1.0 fWAR six of his last seven seasons. He's suffered from injury problems in the past but pitched well when when the Dodgers called upon him last year, and his FIP shows that with a more normalized BABIP he could be better in 2014.
Maholm is 31 like Hammel and coming off a bit of a down year with the Braves, as he had managed to have an ERA under 3.7 in his prior two seasons. A career HR/9 rate of 0.85 would be a lovely presence in Yankee Stadium.
As you'll notice, these pitchers are all pretty similar. They're strike throwers with average stuff, but that can be pretty useful when you're looking at a fourth or (hopefully) fifth starter. It also helps to keep their asking price down. Obviously I would prefer if guys like David Phelps and Michael Pineda are the ones who break camp as the Yankees starters, but it can never hurt to pick up a veteran on the cheap just in case of the worst case scenarios. It can provide insurance while not blocking the youngsters for any significant period of time.
After a memorable year from start to finish for the Dodgers, 2014 has the potential to be even better.
Last year was jam-packed with exciting storylines and events. But what stories might emerge in 2014? Let's take a look (these fourteen are not ranked in order of importance).
In late October of this year after the World Series ends, Clayton Kershaw will be a free agent... if the Dodgers don't sign him to a contract extension before then. It's safe to say Los Angeles doesn't want to risk that happening because it could open up the flood gates when it comes to bidding for Kershaw's services. LA needs to sign arguably it's best pitcher since Sandy Koufax sooner rather than later. J.P. Hoornstra pointed out today that January 17th is another date for Dodgers' fans to keep in mind because that's when teams and players exchange salary arbitration dollar figures. If Los Angeles wants to make fans happy and not spend too much, it should probably sign Kershaw to an extension before January 17th.
Clayton Kershaw isn't the only all-star currently on the Dodgers that is set to be a free agent after this season. Hanley Ramirez was acquired by LA back in 2012 and has dominated since, at least when he wasn't injured. Ramirez shouldn't cost as much as Kershaw, but due to the lack of powering hitting middle infielders in the MLB these days, locking up Ramirez to a solid extension should also be a priority for the Dodgers. Rumors have been reported that Ramirez and LA have been working on an extension this offseason, which prompted ESPN's Mark Saxon to question how much the infielder is worth.
Don Mattingly's contract situation
Don Mattingly's contract situation is the last big extension the Dodgers have to worry about this offseason. After Los Angeles clinched a spot in the NLCS, an option triggered in Mattingly's contract that made him LA's manager until at least the end of the 2014 season. But the front office can't let this situation hang around and put Mattingly in a "lame duck" position for the second season in a row. Mattingly deserves better than that after taking a team that was 12 games under .500 in July to the NLCS.
The outfield logjam
This was a big storyline to follow last year, but never really made headlines because of injuries to Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford. This year, Los Angeles might have to deal with it. Yasiel Puig isn't going anywhere, and Kemp, Crawford, and Andre Ethier should all be ready for opening day against the Diamondbacks on March 22nd in Australia. The ideal situation for the Dodgers would be to get a big return for Kemp or Ethier, but that might not happen anytime soon. If the Dodgers' want to stick with all four outfielders, they at least know they'll have protection in case one of them is injured.
After a new posting system was agreed on and his Japanese team agreed to post him, Tanaka was made available to the highest bidder in the MLB. The Tanaka sweepstakes end on January 24th when the negotiation period ends and a "winner" is announced. If the Dodgers' don't sign the Japanese starter, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But the one thing Los Angeles does have to worry about is inter-division rival Arizona. According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks have made Tanaka their "number one priority." If the Dodgers' do land him, he might give LA the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball. If Arizona does, it might make winning the NL West a little bit harder for Los Angeles.
It's hard to tell how good the Cuban infielder really is. But if he is as good as the stories say, Guerrero could be the next big Cuban baseball star on the Dodgers. If he's not, he could be the next version of Kei Igawa, a starting pitcher from Japan who signed a 5-year $20 million dollar deal with the Yankees and finished with a 6.66 ERA in 71.2 innings for New York. Now that's a stretch, but Guerrero has dealt with injuries while playing winter ball and hasn't played in an organized baseball league for a while. If the 27-year-old can prove everyone wrong, he could be a lot of fun to watch alongside fellow Cuban, Yasiel Puig.
At the end of the 2012 season, Chad Billingsley decided to avoid Tommy John surgery. That decision looked great at the beginning of the 2013 season until the right-hander was shut down for the season in April. Billingsley might not return until halfway through the season, which shouldn't be a problem for the Dodgers if Josh Beckett and Stephen Fife can give them solid options for a fifth starter. If Billingsley, does pitch as well as he did at the end of 2012 and beginning of 2013 when he returns, he could be a solid fourth starter for Los Angeles.
After the center-fielder finished second in the 2011 National League MVP voting, the sky looked like the limit for Matt Kemp. But after injury-plagued 2012 and 2013 seasons for the outfielder, his durability is in question. Rumors swirled that Kemp could be traded during the winter meetings, and even though Kemp wasn't traded, the rumors probably won't go away until Crawford or Ethier is traded. If Kemp does fully heal and returns to the lineup as the player he was in 2011, the Dodgers' lineup will be deadly with Kemp, Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Puig.
Dee Gordon's role in Los Angeles
The infielder's role with the Dodgers depends heavily on the success of Alexander Guerrero. If the front office doesn't think Guerrero is ready, Gordon could very well be the starting second baseman for the Dodgers. But if Guerrero is ready, Gordon could be forced into a bench role. Eric Stephen talked about this situation, and Gordon's role, at length in this piece.
The Rays' ace isn't on the Dodgers now, and might never be. However, according to multiple reports this offseason, Los Angeles is one of a couple teams interested in trading for David Price. The 2012 AL Cy Young winner isn't a free agent for two seasons, but could be traded at any moment. With Tanaka now on the market, it's likely that a Price trade won't happen until after the Japanese starter signs. At the same time, Price might not be traded this offseason at all. If the Dodgers' need more starting pitching during the middle of the season, it might not surprise too many people if Los Angeles tried to trade for Price during the middle of the season. The only issue revolves around LA's willingness to trade some of its top prospects for a season or two of Price.
When Lee was drafted by the Dodgers in the first round of the 2010 MLB first year player draft, he was projected to be a front of the rotation starter. Now, Lee's future is more likely to be as a solid third or fourth starter. If the Dodgers' starting rotation struggles again with injuries and they lose out on Tanaka and don't want to trade for Price, Lee could be given a shot. Lee is behind Billingsley, Fife, and Beckett on the depth chart, but if the right-hander pitches well in the minors, he could be given a shot in the majors.
Puig runs fast in the outfield and evidently drives fast too. The Dodgers aren't happy about it and it's easy to understand why. Puig has an extremely high ceiling and the last thing Los Angeles wants to see is for him to throw it away. At times, it looks like Puig understands this issue and works hard to fix his immaturity issues, but at other times it looks like he is still a little too immature for the MLB. If Puig can fix that and become a more mature player, he has the potential to be far and away one of the most talented five tool players in the game.
Infield depth
Nick Punto, Mark Ellis, and Skip Schumaker are all gone via free agency. That means Gordon, Justin Sellers, and Scott Van Slyke are really the only backup infielders left on the Dodgers. That needs to be fixed and most likely will be fixed before spring training begins.
The reality show featuring Hanley Ramirez, Juan Uribe, and Yasiel Puig
This stuff never gets old.
Ramirez and Uribe mentored Puig after he was called up to the Dodgers and ended up creating a semi-reality TV show in the process. The three exchanged pictures on various social media sites referring to Uribe as "King Kong", which sometimes caused bananas to appear in the Dodgers' dugout after Uribe made a big play. If one of them does well, the other two go crazy, and it's a ton of fun to watch.
Capsule comments on each of the players whose fates will be revealed in January -- with derision reserved for the steroids-obsessed puritans of the BBWA.
Mike Piazza (Getty Images)
Mike Piazza: The best all-around hitter among catchers has been weirdly attractive to the steroids scolds, who have gone so far as measuring his back hair in pursuit of convicting evidence. (If back hair were evidence of having super-powers the nation's 45-year-old men would have long since banded together to form the Justice League of Flatulence.) In his book, Piazza ‘fessed to using Androstenedione and Ephedra, supplements then legal in baseball, but denied using anything else. Just for argument's sake, let's say that Piazza did use. Heck, let's say that he bolted the whole medicine cabinet from aspirin to Zantac. Given that so many players have failed tests, the guys we know used, apparently reaped no benefit whatsoever, what percentage of Piazza's accomplishments would you like to credit to the drugs? Be fair now, remembering all those faceless minor leaguers who have been suspended, and even those world-class runners who have been caught after making times tenths of a second better than the field. We cannot quantify what these things do for a ballplayer. That doesn't stop people from trying, or even speaking authoritatively on the subject, but don't you believe them.
A failed attempt to cheat is in no way morally superior to not cheating, but I do think we can stop pretending that the numbers are illegitimate, and at that point some of the high dudgeon can be fanned away on the basis that the so-called steroids era was about an ethical lapse rather than a major crime.
In his latest dispatch from the North Pole, former New York Times reporter/PEDs obsessive Murray Chass quotes an interview conducted by Jeff Pealman regarding "evidence" of Piazza's usage:
"There was nothing more obvious than Mike on steroids," says another major league veteran who played against Piazza for years. "Everyone talked about it, everyone knew it. Guys on my team, guys on the Mets. A lot of us came up playing against Mike, so we knew what he looked like back in the day. Frankly, he sucked on the field. Just sucked. After his body changed, he was entirely different. ‘Power from nowhere,' we called it."
Damning, right? Maybe, but also maybe not. Piazza was drafted in 1988 and made his minor league debut in the Low-A Northwest League. He was in his age-20 season, a time in life when many ballplayers are still maturing physically. He slugged .444 in 57 games that year, which was roughly 100 points above the league average. Piazza struggled at High-A Vero Beach in 1990, hitting .251/.281/.390, but the league as a whole hit only .245/.326/.330, so he was still showing above-average power. He started hitting for real in 1991 at Bakersfield of the California League, averaging .277/.344/.540. Now, the quote above doesn't tell us when Piazza's "body changed," but those that would argue that he did something illicit somewhere in that period have to account for (a) the possibility that Piazza matured as he aged from 20 to 22, (b) that he devoted himself to a bodybuilding regimen that would have paid off in improved strength with or without chemical assistance, (c) that he had above-average power all along, and very likely (d) all of the above. We can also add in (e) hearsay is not the same as evidence.
It was in 1992 that Piazza added the final component of his repertoire and started hitting .350, and I guess we can ascribe that to the juice as well. PEDs are the all-purpose explanation, transforming puny Bruce Banner into the Incredible Hulk. It's science!
Tim Raines, 1984. (Getty Images)
Tim Raines: What is it about the 1980s that so confuses the so-called professional observer? Jack Morris's mustache seemingly cast some kind of hypnotic spell that blotted out the work of better players like Raines and Alan Trammell. I won't recapitulate Raines' qualifications here; they should be more than apparent. He had the misfortune to be the second-best leadoff man of his time when the best of all time was playing in the American League. That in no way made him less than an all-time great in the same way that Lou Gehrig was not at all diminished by playing at the same time as Babe Ruth. He also had a cocaine problem, but sought help on his own and was never sanctioned by baseball. Perhaps that's what is keeping him out, or it could be that his talents are somehow too subtle to be appreciated by the same voters who enshrine slugger after slugger. Raines averaged 11 home runs a year and yet scored 102 runs a season. These are the kinds of skills the PEDs police are supposed to appreciate.
Kenny Rogers: Bobby Valentine stuck Rogers in the bullpen for the first four years of his career, costing him a chance to push his career win total a little higher, though who knows -- perhaps he wouldn't have had high victory totals late in his career if he hadn't been used lightly earlier on. Rogers' inconsistency means it's not something we have to think too hard about.
Curt Schilling (Getty Images)
Curt Schilling: As with many great players, he's apparently a better athlete than a human being (or at least a businessman). But let us judge not lest we be judged. Schilling didn't reach the 300-win level, but if you can find where it is written that the number of the hall shall be 300 and not 200, well, phone your bible studies class at once. P.S.: He was a key part of four World Series teams and was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 postseason starts.
Richie Sexson: Fewer than 100 players have retired with a career slugging percentage of .500 or better. That Sexson was one of them without anyone ever suggesting he was a great or even a particularly good player suggests just how debauched post-strike offensive levels became.
Lee Smith: In the early 1980s, before the idea of a the "closer" evolved and a team's best reliever was used in the pitch-anytime fireman role, Smith was as valuable as some starting pitchers, throwing 90 to 110 innings a year. Used that way, he had fewer saves (he led his league in saves just once between arriving in the majors in 1980 and 1990) but had a greater impact on games. Looked at from the vantage point of wins above replacement, Smith was among the 25 or so most valuable pitchers in baseball in the years 1982-1990, the upper boundary marking his final season of 80 or more innings. If his whole career had been spent in that mode he might well have had a stronger case for the Hall of Fame, but over the rest of his career had more saves, surpassing 40 three times and leading the league in three seasons, but he had less of an impact -- the three 40-save seasons combined had less value than Smith's 103.1-inning campaign of 1983.
Lee Arthur Smith (Getty Images)
J.T. Snow: You can make fun lists of players who were blocked by their betters, for example all the catchers the Yankees traded because they had Yogi Berra (Sherm Lollar, Gus Triandos, and Clint Courtney among them) or first basemen run off by Don Mattingly. That list begins with Steve Balboni and also includes Hal Morris, Orestes Destrade, and Mr. Snow, who was traded for Jim Abbott in 1992. He wasn't a Hall of Famer, but given that his primary employer had Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds around, he didn't have to be one.
Sammy Sosa, 1989 (Getty Images)
Sammy Sosa: Another guy everyone assumes juiced, and when you look at a chronological series of headshots it's hard to miss his skull gradually inflating from normal human to Jack-o'-lantern proportions. Again, turning oneself into a gourd is evidence of the intention to cheat, not successful cheating, and it is worth remembering that there were many other environmental changes at work in the game during Sosa's heyday that combined to accentuate his great strength and make the achievement of such bizarrely inflated numbers possible. We accept that Babe Ruth and Roger Maris benefitted from environmental changes (in the former's case the introduction of the lively ball in 1920 and the rabbit ball in 1930, while the latter had expansion and an extended schedule), but for the modern guys it had to be purely chemical so be it.
Sammy Sosa, 1998 (Getty Images)
Sosa was initally a more versatile player than the musclebound slugger of his later years suggested, an athletic right fielder (though error-prone,) and a good enough basestealer to reach the 30-30 mark on two occasions. As his power increased, his other skills declined, so that with the exception of 2001, his overall offensive performances are not that special by the standards of his era. His celebrated 1998 campaign (.308/.377/.647 66 home runs), when adjusted for Wrigley Field, is virtually indistinguishable from that of roughly 10 other players (see table below). Some may look at his 609 career home runs and see an automatic argument for enshrinement, but as I've said again and again throughout this three-part series, no number should represent a reason to forego the labor of critical thinking. This is consistent with the view that what the players got out of the bottle or the syringe was far less important than systemic changes in the game itself. Sosa's skill set meant those changes were reflected in inflated home run totals, but considered holistically, his numbers are typical of the best players of the era, clean and/or juiced.
The Second Tier: Sammy Sosa and His Peers, 1998
AVG
OBP
SLG
HR
OPS+
oWAR
Mark McGwire
.299
.470
.752
70
216
9.2
Barry Bonds
.303
.438
.609
37
178
7.2
John Olerud
.354
.447
.551
22
163
6.2
Sammy Sosa
.308
.377
.647
66
160
6.3
Jeff Bagwell
.304
.424
.557
34
158
6.0
Larry Walker
.363
.445
.630
23
158
5.8
Moises Alou
.312
.399
.582
38
157
5.9
Andres Galarraga
.305
.397
.595
44
157
5.6
Greg Vaughn
.272
.363
.600
50
156
6.1
Gary Sheffield
.302
.428
.524
22
155
4.7
Mike Piazza
.328
.390
.570
32
152
6.4
Vladimir Guerrero
.324
.371
.589
42
150
5.7
Frank Thomas: If Ted Williams had played in the 1990s, this is what his numbers would have looked like. The Big Hurt had little defensive value, but then, neither did Williams. It didn't matter.
Mike Timlin: When Timlin reached the major leagues in 1991, only two pitchers had appeared in a thousand games -- Hoyt Wilhelm and Kent Tekulve -- and three others had pitched over 900. There are now 15 pitchers in 1,000-game territory, Timlin himself having reached number eight on the career list, and eight in 900-land. LaTroy Hawkins seems likely to reach the millennium mark, and Kyle Farnsworth, he of the rising fastball -- rising out of the park, that is -- and 6.1 career WAR may yet get to 900. Timlin got the most out of his career, not only pitching in all those games but going to four World Series and finishing on the winning side all four times.
Alan Trammell, 1984. (Getty Images)
Alan Trammell: Just as Trammell was establishing himself as an all-star-level player, rival shortstops blossomed and cast him into shadow. Robin Yount won the 1982 AL MVP award with one of the best offensive seasons a shortstop ever had, and in 1983 Cal Ripken did the same. With the Tigers rampaging through the American League in 1984, Trammell should have been next in line. Though he hit .314/.382/.468, a midseason injury and the voters' fascination with Willie Hernandez meant that he got only lukewarm support. He should have won in 1987, but then the voters just missed it, getting suckered in by George Bell's high home run and RBI totals. Thus his lack of Hall of Fame support is a case of double jeopardy: they fail to respect him now because their predecessors didn't respect him then.
I've tried to avoid utilizing WAR too often in this series because it frightens the unenlightened, but in terms of career value Trammell ranks eighth among shortstop. With the exception of Derek Jeter, not yet eligible, every other player in the top 16 is in the Hall, including Barry Larkin, who finished tied with him. He's going to get in, whether via the BBWAA or the Veterans Committee that reconsiders their oversights; they might as well get it right while he's still alive to enjoy it.
Larry Walker: It seems certain voters will struggle with Rockies players of the pre-humidor era, but it seems obvious that not every player who was transported to altitude turned into Walker. His 1997, in which he hit .336/.443/.733 on the road ranks among the best single-season performances of the postwar era. Walker wasn't durable, and Troy Renck of the Denver Post wrote recently that while he viewed Walker as the best player he ever covered, the outfielder lacked passion and often opted out of the lineup. The same was said about Rickey Henderson when he was in his prime, which leant a palpable irony to his holding on to his career until he was 44 and couldn't hit anymore. Walker only played in as many as 150 games once in his career. That said, he packed a great deal of production into the games he did play, enough to be a four-time all-star, seven-time Gold Glove winner, and win an MVP award with a third-place team. I respect Renck's point of view that Walker could have been more than what he was had he been more committed, but it seems shortsighted to let that completely invalidate the exceptional quality of what he did do.
We all have to wait another week to find out what's going to happen to A-Rod
A final verdict to the Alex Rodriguez suspension appeal is expected to be announced in early January. Independent arbitrator Frederic Horowitz is expected to announce his decision through an email sent to both parties. A decision is likely to come next week, but, according to Jon Heyman, not until after Wednesday, January 8, 2014, when the Hall of Fame announces this year's inductees. Heyman says that an announcement might not come until Friday the 10th, at the earliest, in order to prevent any unnecessary distractions.
This means another week of waiting around to find out whether or not the Yankees will have A-Rod for all, part, or none of the coming season. It also means another week of inaction from as they wait to see how much money they have left to spend. As it stands right now, the market is completely frozen as it awaits the signing of Masahiro Tanaka, who has until January 24th to negotiate with teams before he needs to make a decision.
The Yankees will hopefully know about A-Rod by then and a suspension would likely help them offer the most money to the Japanese right-hander. On the other hand, losing Rodriguez could leave a big hole in the lineup, now that Robinson Cano has left. They can sign Mark Reynolds, but he won't really offer what A-Rod can, when healthy.
In the end, it might be best for the Yankees if Alex Rodriguez gets off on all charges. They maintain their best bet a third base and can still go over the $189 million budget to get Tanaka. The Yankees are so close to their self-mandated cap that they're likely to go over no matter what happens. Having A-Rod might not really effect their chances of getting Tanaka if they're willing to go well above the budget to get him.
Alex Rodriguez beating his suspension will really have the most effect on the Yankees' roster construction. They have put together so many platoon players at this point, with Brian Roberts, Kelly Johnson, and Brendan Ryan, that it will likely come down to a backup third baseman or a fifth outfielder. This could mean the difference between signing Reynolds and keeping Ichiro Suzuki around. Who would you rather have?
Right now it's all hypotheticals and possibilities, but what do you think? What should the Yankees be rooting for? What are you? Will A-Rod tell us all about his victory during the Hall of Fame announcements?
With little need for him in the outfield, could Ichiro be on the move soon?
After signing both Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, the Yankees have quite a lot of outfielders under contract for the 2014 season. Joining these free agent acquisitions are Brett Gardner, Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, and Ichiro Suzuki. While Beltran or Soriano would probably DH instead of playing the field, this still leaves the Yankees with a surplus of outfielders.
Boston Globe baseball writer Nick Cafardo has speculated that the Yankees will try to move Ichiro in the coming weeks, and that the San Francisco Giants might be one team that would be interested in the 40 year old former All-Star. Cafardo writes, "It'll be interesting to see whether in the next few weeks the Yankees can move him. With Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alfonso Soriano, and Vernon Wells also in a crowded outfield, Ichiro, who can still play defense but can't hit at the level he used to, could be a functional player for someone. The Giants always remain a possibility."
While no sources have come forward to say that the teams are actively discussing a trade around Ichiro, the fact remains that the Giants are probably looking to add some depth to their bench, as, like the Yankees, injuries played a major role in their disappointing 2013 season. Still, they likely won't be willing to give up very much in return for Ichiro, who hit just .262/.297/.342, with 20 stolen bases, last season. Additionally, he is owed over $6 million this coming year, which is quite a bit to pay someone who may end up primarily as a pinch runner and late game defensive replacement. If the Giants are willing to pay a pretty penny for some speed and defense off the bench, the Yankees should move Ichiro in a heart beat, even if all they get back is a low end prospect.
At least if the Yankees get a young player back, that player will have some slight potential to be a serviceable major league player. Ichiro, on the other hand, has almost no potential to be decent anymore. If the Giants will take him, I'm all for it.
Tanaka has held the pitching market hostage this offseason, and free agents Ervin Santana, Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez have yet to sign. He is expected to cost more than $100 million on top of the $20 million posting fee that any team will have to pay to the Rakuten Golden Eagles.
The deadline for an agreement with Tanaka is Jan. 24, meaning the market could be in stasis until that date. Adding to the complications, the commissioner's office is expected to review the winning bid to ensure that the Golden Eagles are not receiving more than the $20 million posting fee.
Beyond the Box Score | Alex Skillin: Will CC Sabathia's home run/fly ball rate return to normal with a season removed from surgery or is it the sign of something more serious?
The New York Yankees are in the market for starting pitcher, and one name that's been generating some buzz lately is free-agent starter Ubaldo Jimenez. Is he a good or bad fit?
You know the current storyline when it comes to the New York Yankees: They need a starting pitcher. Or two. The Robinson Cano drama has evaporated. Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran have been the big additions in New York's attempt to offset Cano's departure -- and his production, of course. There's still that whole Alex Rodriguez thing that needs a resolution, sure, and it's far from irrelevant given the potential financial effects that will ensue.
But New York has turned its attention to the starting pitching market, and the name that's drawing some buzz is Ubaldo Jimenez.
We know a couple of things about the Jimenez-Yankees chatter. One is obvious: the Yankees have interest in him. Let's call it conflicting interest, because Bob Klapisch reported in mid-December that New York isn't "leaning towards" Jimenez, whereas Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe recently spoke to a "few" general managers who believe that New York could in fact land Jimenez.
Of course, there is one glaring caveat, and that is indeed the $189 million luxury tax threshold that the Yankees are trying to get under -- and have been for quite some time now. And, to put it harshly, they could be failing -- which may not be a totally bad thing. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal believes that the Yankees could surpass the $189 figure, even without nabbing Masahiro Tanaka, who's reportedly looking for a deal in the five-year, $100 million neighborhood. So digest that. Then, pile on a potential $15-$17 million a year for Jimenez (he's looking for at least $17 million) and yeah, say "so long" to the plan.
No, I don't know for a fact that New York is going to wind up with both Tanaka and Jimenez. It is, reportedly, a possibility. But really, the point is that the Yankees are approaching the big 1-8-9.
However, we're not here to delve into the Yankees' enterprises, as attention-grabbing as they may be. Rather, we're here to discuss the idea of Ubaldo Jimenez sporting pinstripes -- and why it makes sense.
There would be upside in rolling the dice on Pineda and Banuelos, but taking that route doesn't necessarily look like the wisest idea on paper, because they'd be taking a flyer on two pitchers fresh off major arm surgeries. Neither has a ton of major league experience, and Banuelos doesn't have any, for that matter. Maybe it pans out, and they'll surely save a few bucks if it does. But if it doesn't ... the back-end of the Yankees' rotation would be set up to crumble.
Then there's the safer route, which where Jimenez comes into play. Yes, money obviously becomes a bigger factor here, as a lowered risk factor doesn't come at a cheap price. But for the Yankees, taking the less riskier route (Jimenez) would eliminate one of their two potential question marks.
Now that that's settled ...
Strikeouts Are Good, Especially at Yankee Stadium
Jimenez racked up plenty of strikeouts in 2013, mustering baseball's 12th-best K% among qualified starters. This doesn't really deviate from Jimenez's career path. He's always been a strikeout guy (career 21.5 K%), so rest assured that 2013 wasn't an aberration.
But, other than drooling on Jimenez's knack for the strikeout, you can probably guess where I'm headed this. If you guessed, "Yankee Stadium Park Factors," you win.
It's not worth deliberately pretending that it isn't a factor, because it is. I know it is. You know it is. Certainly the pitchers know that it's staring at them. A quick glance at ESPN's park factors will confirm that too. Strikeouts avoid the problem completely because, you know, strikeouts are strikeouts -- the hitter simply takes a seat, no weirdness attached. Which means no cheap home runs, in this case.
Jimenez obviously isn't going to strike everyone out. No one does. But that's not necessarily the point. The more a pitcher can keep the ball out of the air in Yankee Stadium, the better. Ground balls do the trick too, but Jimenez, at least in recent years, hasn't been a huge ground ball pitcher.
Now, just how concerned should we be with home runs at Yankee Stadium and how Jimenez would fit, well ...
The Long Ball
Jimenez doesn't have a problem with the long ball. Disregarding 2012 (1.27 HR/9), he's situated himself comfortably under the league average since 2010, posting HR/9 ratios under 1.00. And hey, he posted a 6.5 fWAR while pitching close to half of his games in Coors Field in 2010. Yankee Stadium is rough, but Coors Field is just a bit rougher. Pretty impressive, I'd say.
But if we had to dig up a caveat, it's Yankee Stadium's right field porch, and since Jimenez is a righty, said porch becomes an easier home run target for lefties than it would be for lefties against lefties or righties against lefties.
In a visual ...
Year
RH
LH
2009
106
113
2010
106
113
2011
106
113
2012
106
113
2013
106
114
Average
106
113.2
FanGraphs' Park Factors
Just as we expected: Lefty power hitters -- or any type of lefty hitter, really -- tend to have an advantage over righties. It's not a huge advantage, not as dramatic as Petco Park and Progressive Field's righty versus lefty 2013 park factor splits. But, it's there.
In Jimenez's case, however, perhaps we're overstating the possible Yankee Stadium caveat. Consider this: He pitched at Coors Field for six years, and in those six years, he mustered a HR/9 ratio under 1.00, with his first two years (1.1 HR/9 total) slightly skewing the overall total. So that 0.6 conceivably could've been even better.
And the main takeaway here is not so much the numbers alone. They're good. Really good. But it's the numbers coupled with the context of Coors Field -- against lefties -- that make them even better.
Year
Yankee Stadium
Coors Field
2006
106
107
2007
106
101
2008
106
108
2009
113
110
2010
113
116
2011
113
115
2012
113
115
2013
114
115
Average
110.5
110.875
Note that the 2006, 2007 and 2008 numbers come from the old Yankee Stadium. And keep in mind, the numbers above are for just lefties.
How about that? They're almost dead even as home run suppressing environments to lefties. Don't let the general perception fool you. Yes, Yankee Stadium is a heaven for lefty hitters, but Coors Field, statistically, is basically the same.
I am removing Progressive Field from the break down, but the pattern remains more or less the same. It's a favorable park for lefties, as it has a 105 average home run factor since 2011 (when Jimenez arrived via trade from Rockies). A little less drastic, obviously, but you get the point.
So let's conclude: Jimenez is not remotely close to home run happy, and he's had plenty of experience pitching in hitter-friendly environments. And in that sense, he'd be a good fit right in at Yankee Stadium.
Catcher Switch
This one is a bit overlooked, possibly because the art of framing is something that we don't completely understand yet. Still, it's worth merely acknowledging, especially since it's something that might've had an impact on Jimenez's resurgence.
Of course, that "something" is Indians catcher, Yan Gomes. Again, it's not perfect science, but StatCorner ranks him as baseball's eighth-best catcher (1000 pitches minimum). That ranking is broken down into a handful of categories which are then put into one overall number -- RAA (Runs Above Average). Gomes, for reference, was about 15 runs above average.
We can get a bit more detailed with that numbers that go into the overall RAA. For instance, Gomes collected an extra 1.5 strikes per game and 115 for the season. There's also outside of the strike zone strike percentage, and vice versa for pitches inside of the hypothetical strike zone. It's not extremely complicated. But all we need to know for the sake of this section is a confirmation of Gomes' competence behind the plate and how that might've contributed to Jimenez's resurgence.
With that in mind, I went over to Jimenez's game log on Baseball-Reference and found a few notable trends. One, Gomes didn't start consistently catching him until late August -- August 29, to be exact. And without getting too detailed, the switch paid off. A lot, as Jimenez mustered a fantastic 1.49 ERA while striking out 61 batters in 48.1 innings from August 29 through season's end -- Gomes caught all of seven of those games. Another tidbit that I dug up: Jimenez threw strikes 66% of the time in those final seven starts, a 5% increase from his previous 25 starts, when Jimenez's primary receiver was Carlos Santana, baseball's 12th-worst backstop in 2013.
Now, it probably wouldn't be entirely accurate to chalk up Jimenez's surge all to Gomes' consistent presence, because there are a slew of other factors. It's not worth listing them all here, but just think about it. For one, Jimenez has to have the skills. That's a given. A good catcher doesn't magically make the ball find its way into the strike zone. Additionally, poor stuff and poor command doesn't magically miss bats. Still, this whole Gomes-Jimenez battery has some correlations with Jimenez's surge, and it'd be ignorant not to acknowledge it.
As for where I'm headed with this ...
Well, if we muster up the courage to assume that Jimenez winds up with the Yankees, he'd be going from Gomes to Brian McCann (12th-best catcher). The hope then, of course, is that the drop-off would only be marginal. Sure, Gomes is younger, has fresher legs and already has experience operating with Jimenez. All good things, but the gap, even if McCann logs a few more days as New York's designated hitter, shouldn't be too wide. In the short term, at least.
So, it's just something to keep in mind, not overvalue.
Final Thoughts
Jimenez doesn't come without his flaws. He will cost a compensatory draft pick. For the Yankees, that wouldn't be a huge obstacle, given that they've already coughed up their first-rounder. Additionally, one could point to the weak competition that he faced during his resurgence, which can basically be summed up as followed: Twins, Astros, White Sox and Marlins. And finally, 2012 isn't entirely irrelevant (5.06 FIP).
Of course, those flaws can't be masked, but, on the same token, the 16-game stretch (July 4-September 29) in which he posted a 2.18 ERA can't be masked either, and if you have a "what have you done for me lately" approach, Jimenez is your guy.
But it's all about finding a balance, or getting relatively close. Putting too much value into one negative year or one trend would skew the big picture, and vice versa for positive trends. Still, Jimenez seems like a good fit. He's not yet on the wrong side of 30 and he still has plenty of upside. And we have already discussed the tangibles in detail. There's a lot to like.
The Yankees organization has announced that there will be a complete turnover of the High-A Tampa coaching staff. This news, while odd, is not surprising, coming off a 58-78 last place finish in 2013. Most of the new coaching staff has been moved up from Single-A Charleston, meaning that more hirings will be forthcoming.
The new manager for Tampa will be Al Pedrique, the 2013 manager of the Single-A Charleston RiverDogs. This is his second year in the organization, but he also possesses 16 years of experience in the Astros, Diamondbacks and Royals organizations, serving in various positions at the major and minor league level.
Danny Borrell, a former Yankees second-round draft pick in 2000, will enter his sixth season as a coach in the Yankees organization and will serve as the Tampa Yankees pitching coach in 2014 after spending the last two seasons with Charleston and the 2011 season with Staten Island in the same role. P.J. Pilittere will serve as Tampa's hitting coach after serving in the same role in Charleston in 2013. He was a catcher in the Yankees organization from 2004 to 2011 before transitioning to coaching with the GCL Yankees in 2012.
J.D. Closser will make his professional debut as a coach, while Michael Becker will move from Charleston to Tampa and serve as the new trainer for the team. In his second season with the organization, Joe Siara will serve as Tampa's strength and conditioning coach after spending 2013 with the Staten Island Yankees.
As for the previous regime, ex-Yankee Luis Sojo has served as the team's manager for the past seven out of eight years, but it's unknown at this time if he will remain in the organization. Marcus Thames, who began his coaching career as the team's hitting coach last season, will move up to Double-A Trenton.
Do you think Randy Levine has ever shown a GIF to somebody? Maybe... a @yankeesgifs GIF? We can dream, compadres. We can dream.
What is it with those humans anyway? Always walking around, being weird, saying weird things, tweeting out weird pictures. Like Randy Levine, President of the New York Yankees, a man who is quickly becoming my favorite person in baseball. I would like to sit down in a room with Randy. Actually, that would probably be too close for comfort—I would like to sit on one side of a great hall with Randy sitting far away on the other side, both of us communicating with loudspeakers. I would like to ask him things. I would like to pose questions: Randy, do you think it was appropriate to suggest in an email to Alex Rodriguez that Robinson Cano should take steroids? Randy, what happened to your sideburn?
Seriously Though
We were discussing this the other day, and the leading theory is that Levine was trying to shape the sideburn a certain way, but it kept going wrong, and then he kept trying to get it right until he realized there was nothing there anymore. Hey, it happens, especially with one of those special electric razor gizmos. You get too hyperactive with those and soon your whole face is ruined.
How did the conversation go when Levine rolled into the office that day? Or, more accurately, how did the email conversation go when Levine rolled into office that day?
Cashman (brian.cashman@yankees.com): What happened to your face, Randy?
Steinbrenner goes from full-on fake smile to half-hearted fake smile. Girardi was mugged by a surgeon who had giant Botox syringes for arms, so that explains why his face can’t move. And Brian McCann looks like he’s on a Quaalude or something.
Levine: brian is da astral plane gud
HELLO CHILDREN
And lest you think this has nix to do with baseball, it is actually a moment from a recent Christmas-related charity event held by CC Sabathia. IS THAT YOU, VOLTRON?
Bonus GIFs
Because it is (or was recently) the holidays, enjoy these bonus GIFs! (Really they’re just cuts from past posts, and I don’t have the heart to delete them.)
You can click here for more GIFs, and you can click here to follow us on Twitter.
Heading into January, the Yankees are mostly set with big acquisitions. They will attempt to sign Masahiro Tanaka, but they could also make little moves like signing Mark Reynolds to play third base. Two other small moves Brian Cashman still has to make is adding another reliever and getting rid of at least one outfielder. Right now the Yankees have six outfielders, and they need to move some of them in order to create space on the 40-man roster for other players at more useful positions. If the Yankees sign Tanaka then they won't have to trade Brett Gardner for a starter. Instead they could try to flip Ichiro Suzuki for J.J. Putz.
Ken Rosenthal believes that the Diamondbacks could try to trade Putz now that they have acquired Addison Reed from the White Sox. The 37-year-old right-handed reliever is due $7 million in 2014, so trading him for a player with a comparable salary could make sense. After trading away Adam Eaton, Arizona might like another outfielder. With Ichiro making $6.5 million this year, the two teams could trade their hefty contracts to one another to gain something each needs.
As we all know, Ichiro was one of the worst hitters in major league baseball last season, hitting .262/.297/.342, but that doesn't mean he's without value. If he were on the 2013 Diamondbacks, he would have led the team with 20 stolen bases. He would essentially be the fifth outfielder for them, but Ichiro would excel as a pinch runner, late-inning defensive replacement, and pinch hitter. Each some of Ichiro's contract and he look even better.
The Yankees would be acquiring the 20th best reliever in baseball over the last three seasons, according to WAR (3.2). Unfortunately, Putz had a less than stellar 2013 campaign (0.1), where he was done in by rising walk and home run rates. If he can return to his 2011-2012 rates (1.5/1.6), he could be as valuable in the Yankee bullpen as Mariano Rivera (1.5) and David Robertson (1.6) were in 2013.
This could be the last we hear about such a move, but we'll just have to wait and see. A deal like this doesn't have to happen any time soon.
Russell Martin may not come to mind when discussing baseball's best catchers, but he's worthy of a mention based on his elite defense.
When posed with the question, "who was the best catcher in 2013?", most people would be stuck between two names: Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. After last season's stellar performance by Molina -- he finished in 3rd in the NL MVP voting with 219 points -- and Posey's brilliance at the plate, it's hard not to point to those guys.
But, there was one catcher last season who was remarkably close to both Molina and Posey, despite his near-Mendoza line .226 batting average. His name is Russell Martin, and he's a large -- and mostly secret -- reason why the Pittsburgh Pirates made the playoffs for the first time since 1992.
What value Martin did have at the plate only appeared in the beginning of his career. He posted a wRC+ of over 104 twice in his career, both in his early days as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and a wOBA of over .340 three times, also in his first three seasons in the league. In recent years, though, he's become little more than a slightly less than average hitter, posting wRC+ totals 100, 95, and 101 in his past three seasons, the first two with the New York Yankees and the last with the Pirates.
Whereas Molina and Posey have the more marketable skills -- hitting for average and power, especially on highly viewed teams like the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants, respectively, tends to garner a lot of attention -- Martin is still nearly as valuable as a player based on defense alone.
First, let's look at their batting numbers, setting aside defense for a minute:
Player
PA
BB%
K%
ISO
BABIP
AVG
wOBA
wRC+
Yadier Molina
541
5.5%
10.2%
.158
.338
.319
.362
134
Buster Posey
595
10.1%
11.8%
.156
.312
.294
.357
133
Russell Martin
506
11.5%
21.3%
.151
.266
.226
.315
101
Martin falls behind in almost every category save for BB%. Even with a pretty good batter's eye, it's not enough of a difference to overcome his deficiencies in nearly all other offensive categories. Instead, Martin's value derives almost solely from his unmistakable defensive prowess behind the plate. And, as a result, his value as a player is nearly equal to that of both Molina and Posey:
Player
RAR
fWAR
Dollars
Yadier Molina
52.0
5.6
$28.1
Buster Posey
44.1
4.8
$23.8
Russell Martin
38.0
4.1
$20.5
See? A lot closer in value than their offensive numbers would have you believe. That's because Martin wasn't just seasonally great defensively at catcher in 2013; he was historically great. Since 2002, these are the five best defensive seasons, as judged by the fielding component in fWAR, for catchers:
Martin had the best defensive season as a catcher in over a decade. Taking a glance beyond the all-encompassing Def statistic, though, will lead you to Martin's uncanny ability to block the plate, which was on full display in 2013. Since 2002, here are the ten best single seasons in Calculated Passed Pitches (CPP):
As you can see, Martin has led the league in CPP twice in the past six years, in 2008 and 2013, ranked fourth in 2011, and he's the only player in the top ten to appear three times.
But, going back to 2013, how much better defensively was Martin than his National League counterparts in St. Louis and San Francisco? Well, to be frank: a lot. Here's how his defensive stats compare with Molina and Posey's:
Player
rSB
DRS
CPP
RPP
Def
Yadier Molina
2
12
42
5.9
17.5
Buster Posey
-1
4
41
2.5
10.4
Russell Martin
9
16
65
4.5
22.5
With the exception of Passed Pitch Runs (RPP), which looks at how a catcher ranks in terms of blocking pitches, with 0 being average and +5 being excellent, Martin dominates in almost every category. Even including RPP, Martin's impressive 4.5 ranks him second in the MLB, behind only Molina.
Martin was an integral part of the Pirates' success in 2013. Still, considering everything -- Martin's seemingly paltry offensive numbers compared to both Molina and Posey, juxtaposed with his elite defense at one of the most important positions in baseball -- it's hard to conceptualize just how important Martin was to his team.
Although Martin's 4.1 fWAR was a far cry from NL MVP Andrew McCutchen's 8.2, it still ranked him third on the team, just behind the speedy centerfielder Starling Marte, who posted a 4.6. Remember, that's better than Pedro Alvarez, who smashed 36 home runs with a .473 SLG% and 111 wRC+; A.J. Burnett, who posted nearly 200 innings of 76 FIP- ball; and Francisco Liriano, who had a team-leading 16 wins with an 80 FIP- over the span of just over 160 innings.
At this point, it's clear that statisticians are finding it difficult to quantify the defensive value of a catcher. Maybe it will always be difficult to quantify one of the most cerebral parts of the game. But, one thing is for sure: Russell Martin is one of the best catchers in the game, and he has put himself in that conversation almost entirely with his glove.
