A-Rod has denied it in the past, but under oath, the government reportedly got a confession out of the Yankees' star.
Alex Rodriguez has denied that he had any association with Biogenesis or the performance-enhancing drugs the anti-aging clinic sold. He denied it during the investigation by Major League Baseball, and while suspended, even at one point suing both Baseball and the MLB Players Association for their handling of the case that he considered a witch hunt. Now, the Miami Herald reports that A-Rod admitted to PED use to the Drug Enforcement Administration back in January.
The Herald had access to a 15-page synopsis of A-Rod's meeting with the DEA, and from that they report that Rodriguez admitted to the use of "substances prohibited by Major League Baseball" between late 2010 and October 2012. Rodriguez also explained how Anthony Bosch, the man behind Biogenesis, explained to A-Rod how to beat Baseball's drug tests in order to get away with his use.
For this confession, Rodriguez reportedly received immunity. Obviously, he did not get it from Baseball, but losing a season is superior to having the government chasing after you.
But in a Drug Enforcement Administration conference room back in January, facing federal agents and prosecutors who granted him immunity, baseball's highest-paid player admitted everything:
Yes, he bought performance-enhancing drugs from Biogenesis of America, paying roughly $12,000 a month to Anthony Bosch, the fake doctor who owned the clinic. Yes, Bosch gave him pre-filled syringes for hormone injections into the ballplayer's stomach, and even drew blood from him in the men's room of a South Beach nightclub. And yes, the ballplayer's cousin, Yuri Sucart, was his steroid go-fer.
Rodriguez has been reinstated by the Yankees and Major League Baseball after serving what turned out to be a 162-game suspension. The DEA is no longer after him if everything in this report is to believed, and Bud Selig is set to happily retire after making A-Rod the face of Biogenesis in 2013. This confession likely doesn't change anyone's viewpoint of A-Rod, but the fact it's out there might finally allow fans to move past what has seemed like a never-ending story for the 20-year veteran.
The qualifying offers have been issued. 12 players now have a week to make the decision to accept or reject the offer. Here we take a look at the pitching side of things and make recommendations for the five pitchers.
The official free agency period started yesterday, which meant that on Monday teams had to decide whether to give a qualifying offer to some of their free agents. The qualifying offer process, implemented in 2012, is a new procedure aimed at determining the value of free agents and giving teams an advantage in re-signing their players. This offseason marks its third year, and it seems as though teams are still trying to figure out how best to use it to their advantage.
For those unfamiliar with the qualifying offer process, it is a contract offer to a potential free agent from his most recent team. The player must have played the entire season with same club, so mid-season trades make players ineligible (e.g., Jon Lester). The duration of the offer is always for 1 year, but the dollar value is determined by taking the average of the top 125 salaries from the previous season; as player salaries rise, so too will the value of the qualifying offers. For this year, the value is set at $15.3 million.
Players have seven days to accept or reject the offer. If the player accepts the offer, he's back with his team on a 1-year, $15.3-million deal. Sounds pretty great, right? To the average citizen, yes it does, but these offers are typically only given to top-level players who can command more lucrative deals (in terms of years and money) through free agency. So, typically the players reject the offer -- 22 of 22 over the last two offseasons have done so -- and test free agency. The matter that somewhat complicates the process is that there is draft pick compensation involved in the process. If a player rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, the signing team forfeits its first round draft pick (unless it is a top-10 pick, in which case they forfeit their second round pick), and the former team gains a compensatory pick to be used at the end of the first round.
If a team is looking at signing a player who has received a qualifying offer, it means they will be investing in that player for a given contract and losing a draft pick, which has the potential to be very valuable. This aspect of the qualifying offer process played a role in Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales going unsigned until midway through the 2013 season, at which point the draft pick compensation issue had expired.
The Players Involved this Year
On Monday, 12 players were given qualifying offers from their most recent team. This is the pitching edition of the 2014 qualifying offers, so below is a look at the 5 pitchers who received offers, and what I suggest each player should do.
In 2014, Liriano took a step back from his excellent 2013 season, although it was really a tale of two halves (first half 4.72 ERA-4.27 FIP; second half 2.20-2.98). The second-half-Liriano is a legitimate star, but it is just not clear that he is capable of sustaining that level of performance. His projection for the coming year suggests he will be a slightly above-average starter. You have to wonder how his outcomes will be affected by not having a top-level pitch framer catching him, although the battery of Liriano and Martin only gained 1.2 runs through pitch framing. So perhaps the impact of losing Martin will not be too large for Liriano, and he may be able to link up with a good framer elsewhere.
Liriano's case is probably the most interesting of the pitching group. He has had issues with inconsistency, and is hitting the market at a time when there is a lot of quality starting pitching available. But many of the other starting pitching options do not come with draft pick compensation attached. Without it, I suspect that Liriano could get at least a 3-year deal for around $30 million. With it, that number could drop to something like 2yrs/$20million, at which point taking the qualifying offer (and the higher annual value) might be better. He could take it, and with a good 2015 season hit the market again as an attractive option while still relatively young (it will be his age-32 season) and hopefully get a longer deal. Or, he could get hurt and struggle to find work in 2015. His case is difficult to make a confident decision. In the end, because Liriano is an effective starter, he has a good chance of obtaining more security/money on the market now and therefore he should reject the offer.
Robertson took over the role of closer for the Yankees after Mariano Rivera retired at the end of 2013. He handled the position admirably, posting an excellent strikeout rate and above-average SD/MD of 4.11. He had a bit of trouble with home runs, and his walk rate rose from previous seasons, but he was still a valuable asset in the Yankee bullpen.
Should Robertson accept the qualifying offer, he will become the highest-paid reliever in baseball (on an annual rate). He could test the market and try for a multi-year deal, but it seems unlikely that a team will forfeit a draft pick to sign a reliever (even one as good as Robertson), and I sincerely doubt anyone would match the $15 million annual value. The production a reliever can provide a team is limited given the way they are used in today's game, and that limits the amount teams are willing to pay for such players. For these reasons, Robertson should accept the offer and test the process again next winter.
It's the second time around these parts for Santana, who also received a qualifying offer after his excellent 2013 season with the Royals. He rejected it last offseason, and it did not really work to his benefit -- he went unsigned until most of the Braves' rotation had their elbows give out in Spring Training. Regardless, he has now posted back-to-back strong seasons (407.0 IP, 5.7 fWAR) without any health issues. His projection for the coming season, his age-32 season, suggests that he will again be a slightly above average starter.
His combined work over the last two seasons has likely convinced teams of his ability and erased any lingering doubts that came from his 2012 season (178 IP, 5.16 ERA, 5.63 FIP, -1.1 WAR) that likely influenced the decision to avoid him last offseason. The best course of action for Santana is to test the market again, and ideally get a 3-year deal worth around $40 million. He should reject the qualifying offer.
This situation is pretty obvious. Scherzer is a top-level starting pitcher, and has been for each of the last six seasons. He has already turned down a huge contract extension from the Tigers (reportedly $144 million) in the spring. So there is no chance he accepts a qualifying offer of 1yr/$15million; and that is certainly the right decision. He is entering his age-30 season, and somebody is going to pay to have him pitch for them until he is 36. I expect he gets something around $150million. Just to be clear, I think that he should reject the qualifying offer.
James Shields presents another pretty clear case. He has been worth at least 3 fWAR each of his full seasons in the big leagues (other than 2010: 1.7). While there was a lot of joking on Twitter this postseason about the credibility of his nickname, he is still very valuable. His innings pitched totals since 2007 are: 215, 215, 219.2, 203.1, 249.1, 227.2, 228.2, and 227. "At least-200-innings-pitched James" does not have the same ring to it, but there are plenty of teams that will pay to see it happen. He is certain to get a multi-year big money deal. It won't be on the order of what Scherzer gets because he is older (entering his age 33 season), and quite frankly not as good, but it will still be up around $75-80 million over 4 or 5 years. Shields should reject the qualifying offer.
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Any instance of missing data in the Steamer projections shown here is because the relevant data were not available on the player's FanGraphs page.
Chris Teeter is a featured writer and editor at Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @c_mcgeets.
In news today from the Miami Herald came an absolutely shocking--no, breathtaking--revelation from the crazy world of Alex Rodriguez. The big story? A-Rod used performance-enhancing drugs made available by the Biogenesis clinic and Anthony Bosch.
Stunner. I never thought I'd be reading and writing about "mid-stream urine," but well, here we are.
The Herald obtained a 15-page synopsis of A-Rod's meeting under oath with the Drug Enforcement Administration, which occurred way back in January, when he was still publicly defending himself after officially being suspended by Major League Baseball for the 2014 season. The meeting was organized as part of the DEA's case against Bosch, who you might recall is a scumbag of a human being who sold PEDs to underage kids. Anyway, here's what the statement said:
After an arbitrator reduced his punishment on Jan. 11, 2014, Rodriguez issued a defiant statement, saying "I have been clear that I did not use performance-enhancing substances ... and in order to prove it, I will take this fight to federal court."
But 18 days later, Rodriguez gave a sworn statement to the DEA and prosecutors that, between late 2010 and October 2012, he did use substances prohibited by Major League Baseball. It was completely at odds with his public statements.
I know A-Rod lying is difficult to comprehend... but it happened. There will be a counseling session with brunch, Pop-Tarts, and Tang hosted by the Daily News I-Team.
The report goes on to say that A-Rod received immunity for his confession, that his infamous cousin Yuri Sucart was the go-between for acquiring steroids, that he paid $12,000 per month to Bosch for the drugs, more details about the process of avoiding MLB's testing, and yes, that A-Rod even had blood drawn from him in a Miami nightclub. I just wish there was more about the outstanding report that included bizarro stuff like tanning salon robberies, $100K+ cash exchanges at a diner, and corrupt cops sleeping with witnesses. Damn.
This news really shouldn't be new information for anyone--the only thing here that hasn't been revealed before is A-Rod's actual confession and some of the information on avoiding positive PED tests. The Biogenesis story will never truly die, it seems.
The Yankees need a shortstop. The Yankees are rumored to be going after Hanley Ramirez. If you would rather they didn't do this, whom would you prefer? Pitchers and catchers report in 106 days.
Comments of the Day
I guess Andrew was trying to be diplomatic about Joe Maddon being a Super Elite Manager or an Overrated Wank Depository. The GIF was pretty sweet though.
Blanky's appropriate response to River Ave U's very short congratulatory post.
Waffles and Matt Freedom respond to the idea of the Yankees not going after Brandon McCarthy.
NoMahbles decides to handle the Yankees' finances regarding McCarthy and Stephen Drew. I think the economics are sound in this case.
My response to Alfonso Soriano's retirement announcement yesterday. You will be missed, Sori.
See? Told you he would be missed.
GIF of the Day
Dellin Betances was nominated for a Rookie of the Year award. Andrew posted this GIF of Betances, earning him the GOTD award.
Honorable Mod Mention
Matt Providence gets the HMM award. He has been here a year now. I think that earns him the HMM award and/or a drink.
Fun Questions
Which player would you prefer the Yankees try to get to play shortstop other than Hanley Ramirez?
The Yankees still do not have a hitting coach. They could also use a shortstop. I think the majority of us would also like them to re-sign Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley. So yeah, they should do these things. They should do these things and more.
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Yankees were hoping they could come to a quick agreement with some of their free agents, however that no longer seems to be the case.
#Yankees hoped familiarity/liking being with NYY would helpquick deals with Headley/McCarthy, but now they don't see that happening (cont)
The Yankees have already started contract talked with Chase Headley and were believed to prefer Brandon McCarthy over some of the more expensive free agent pitchers this year.
The strategy of getting Headley and McCarthy to sign quickly before the market can properly shape their value is a smart move. However, it's also smart of the players not to sign any time soon. By waiting for the bigger names to come off the boards first, Headley and McCarthy will be able to see their value on the market rise as better options become limited. So unless the Yankees give them an overpriced deal, they're not going to settle with the Yankees just because they happened to like playing in New York. I just hope the team isn't surprised by this.
It's likely that Chase Headley will wait to sign until Pablo Sandoval has been taken off the market. Headley could then make a killing as an alternative for the teams who missed out on the top third baseman in the free agent class. After the half-season Brandon McCarthy had with the Yankees, teams are going to see the right-hander as a less expensive alternative to names like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer. Organizations that miss out on certifiable aces like those two are going to want to pay a little extra if McCarthy is the best pitcher around.
The Yankees can try to lock these guys up earlier, but it would be in the players' best interest to wait for their true markets to form. Hopefully by that point the Yankees will still be able to retain them, but they aren't signing now for anything under top dollar. You can't blame the Yankees for trying, unless they legitimately thought it could work. Then we'd be in trouble.
When the Yankees opened the 2014 season, their plan for third base without Alex Rodriguez was pretty much what Greg said it would be in January: Plangervis aka whoever they could find. They never really signed anyone who seemed likely to hold the position down, and Opening Day starter Kelly Johnson was a disaster in the field, as he had only 16 games of experience there beforehand. An injury to Mark Teixeira moved Johnson across the diamond, and in came Yangervis Solarte, the fans' unlikely savior from the Eduardo Nunez Experience. It was enough that the young journeyman's spring training convinced the Yankees to finally cut ties with the consistently disappointing Nunez, but then Solarte stunned everyone by hitting like an All-Star for a month and a half: .325/.403/.504 with 14 extra-base hits through May 15th.
Regrettably, all flukes must come to an end, and the regression train hit Solarte hard. From the middle of May through the middle of July (a greater sample size), Solarte struggled to a .186/.271/.264 triple slash with just six extra-base hits in 40 games, even getting demoted at one point. The fun was over, the Yankees needed a new third baseman to stay remotely in the playoff hunt, and as effervescent as he was, Zelous Wheeler was not going to be the answer. Enter: Chase Headley.
The Yankees reportedly view Headley as their No. 1 third base target.
The Padres' third baseman had about as good a 2012 campaign as one could ever imagine from a third baseman, missing just one game while hitting .286/.376/.498 and bashing 31 doubles and 31 homers, good for a 145 wRC+ and 7.2 fWAR. He finished fifth in NL MVP voting (thanks in small part to a league-high 115 RBI) and seemed poised to become the position's next new star. That was the peak of Headley trade rumors, a sad history that was excellently chronicled by Grant Brisbee. With an aging A-Rod constantly battling injuries, the Yankees were already rumored to be interested in him. In 2013 however, he fractured his thumb during spring training, and though he put up decent numbers that year (.250/.347/.400, 114 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR), he was just not quite as dominant as he was in 2012.
Headley continued to sink his trade value with a slow start to the 2014 season in San Diego, where he batted a meager .229/.296/.355 triple slash with a 90 wRC+ in his first 77 games. He battled a calf strain and a herniated disk in his back that required a painful epidural shot to play through. The Padres couldn't risk even offering him arbitration at the end of the season, so they decided to finally trade him. He went to the Yankees in a July 22nd deal that sent both Solarte and pitching prospect Rafael De Paula to San Diego. Although Solarte's hot start in San Diego and De Paula's strikeout potential offered the Padres some hope, the trade was generally viewed by the baseball pundits as another Brian Cashman steal. He had solved his third base problem by simply trading away a non-roster invitee with low expectations and a 23-year-old pitcher in A-ball who struggled with control and was only in his second professional season due to visa and identity issues. That's a fine trade.
As suggested by the numbers at the start of this article, Headley performed quite well in the Bronx, instantly fitting in with a walk-off single on his first day as a Yankee and taking off from there. Was it playing half his games in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium rather than cavernous Petco Park? Was it a change in grip on the bat? Was it just luck? It's not clear what made Headley do so well in pinstripes, but it certainly made him an enticing option for the Yankees' future with him approaching free agency. (Blasting a walk-off homer against the Red Sox didn't hurt either.) Beyond the bat, his defense earned him praise as well, as the Yankees hadn't had a reliable defender at third since A-Rod was in his prime. Gold Gloves can be silly, but it's hard to say that Headley didn't deserve the one he received in 2012 given his terrific work at the hot corner:
Not bad.
So should Headley return to the Yankees? It certainly seems like the Yankees could do a lot worse than bringing him back. He's probably not going to replicate his career year of 2012, and even expecting second-half Headley to show up for a full season might be asking for a bit too much. However, Headley's case becomes a lot more compelling when taking his exceptional defense into consideration. As brilliant Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons (drafted one round after the Yankees took Cito Culver... sigh) has proved, superb defense can make even a player with a below-league average bat a valuable commodity. Headley's defense isn't as otherworldly as Andrelton's, but his bat is certainly better.
Setting Headley's floor at his first-half production for the Padres, a 90 wRC+ in addition to reputable defense still has value, and Headley is likely to hit better than that. Most projection systems aren't out yet, but Steamer suggests that in 2015, Headley will hit .265/.347/.409 with a 114 wRC+. Although that's just one prediction, any Yankees fan should take that in a heartbeat. Unless his agent is making ridiculous demands, his shaky 2014 suggests that Headley's next contract will be affordable, especially for a team that basically prints money like the Yankees. Although he's not perfect, the state of the Yankees without him does not look great.
The only question becomes what the Yankees should then do about the logjam that will be the result on the roster. Without Headley and assuming no other additions, they would likely play Martin Prado at third, one of rookies Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela at second, Carlos Beltran in right field, and A-Rod at DH. With Headley tossed into the mix, that shifts Prado into a more fluid position, where he can either play second base or right field while Beltran and A-Rod cover DH duties. A-Rod is absolutely not a third baseman anymore given his twice-surgically repaired hips. Although some fans really want to see Refsnyder at second base as soon as possible, it's not absolutely necessary for him to be on the big league club on Opening Day 2015. He'll have only turned 24 a week prior, so it's not as though the clock is ticking for him. If questions about his and Pirela's defense persist as they do now, then it can't hurt to give them more reps at second in the minors for Triple-A Scranton. It seems like A-Rod and Beltran could be injured at any time, so whenever that happens, Refsnyder could become a starter.
Furthermore, it's possible to envision a scenario wherein the Yankees make Prado the primary second baseman but have him cover right field on the days that Beltran needs to stay away from the outfield for rest. Those days will have to come for a soon-to-be 38-year-old like Beltran, and one of Refsnyder or Pirela could make the Opening Day roster as a bench player to fill in at second on those days. The plan without Headley is just concerning, as it doesn't really offer any backup for when Beltran or A-Rod get hurt. Considering their ages and histories, injuries are almost inevitable for those players, and the 2013 Yankees demonstrated what happens when a lack of depth gets exposed in the lineup. Would we want starting outfielder Chris Young again, or someone of his ilk? That's what would happen since Prado couldn't really move off third--who else would play there then? Hell, Prado could get hurt, too.
Headley simply makes too much sense for the Yankees not to make a legitimate run at him, and the early reports suggest that they seem to agree. Adding Headley improves the offense, the defense, and the depth on the bench. C'mon--we need the Hedley Lamarr GIFs.
Which Yankees moment this year was the most depressing and/or cringe-inducing?
Our next category, as part of the SB Nation MLB GIF Awards, is the most regrettable moment of the season. We have given you five GIFs that we felt embodied the single most regrettable and terrible and depressing moments of the season. It is your job to decide which was the worst (or best?).
It takes a special kind of suck to accomplish something like this. Managers usually take out their relievers when they clearly have no control, but not Joe Girardi, so we have to give him credit for allowing this to happen. Cabral was so bad that they designated him for assignment directly after the game and this could end up being his last big league appearance. What a legacy. At the time, this was embarrassing and kind of scary to watch. Thankfully, no one got hurt, so now it's honestly kind of hilarious.
This was Opening Day. OPENING DAY. We should have known to shut down the season then and there. This was pretty brutal to watch. It was a moment that encompassed everything that was wrong with the Yankees' infield defense into one play. We saw Derek Jeter's DEFEN2E and Kelly Johnson's inability to figure out third base. We also have a Vidal Nuno sighting!
The Rob Thomson Memorial Windmill
Good old Rob Thomson and his amazing ability to be terrible at a simple job. You'd think that at some point you'd learn your lesson, or at least be fired for not. NOPE. This was also an odd moment where Stephen Drew forgot that you're still allowed to bowl over the catcher if he's in the way, instead of aimlessly falling into him. I did a full breakdown of this play right after it happened.
As great as Shane Greene proved to be, this was a pretty terrible part of his season. He committed two errors in the second inning and another in the fourth on his way to surrendering four runs on five hits over 5.2 innings. This was actually his first start at Yankee Stadium, so he was either really nervous or overly amped up. Either way it was real bad.
Before elbow issues kept him out of the outfield for much of the year, we had this beauty. Not exactly sure what Beltran was doing there. He was clearly just taking a stroll while the play was happening and then wasn't around to back up Jacoby Ellsbury. This was really depressing to see from him while he was in the middle of such a disappointing season because it looked like he just didn't care. Cool story. This was actually just after he fell over the wall in Tropicana, so who knows if that had something to do with it.
Please vote in the poll below so we can have the pleasure of crowning a champion of suck that will go up against other blogs' own worst nightmares. If we lose, we all win!
The World Series took seven games, and we should be grateful because now we have to endure five months without any baseball. However, we shouldn't hang our heads low and cry, at least not in public, as that should be reserved for showers and on the phone with your mom/therapist. We should see the bright side of things as well. The offseason always brings excitement with free agent signings, wild and surprising trades. and crazy rumors. And this offseason shouldn't be any different. It is always fun knowing that come 2015, so many ballplayers will be with new teams. Here are some things to look forward to and distract you from the long winter until opening day.
Big free agents
It will be interesting to see where big time free agents like Max Scherzer and Jon Lester end up. Does Lester end up on the Yankees? He's a reliable lefty who is great in the postseason and one whose stuff could age well a la Andy Pettitte. Does Lester end up on the Cubs or back with the Red Sox perhaps? What about Pablo Sandoval? Will James Shields' postseason performance hurt his value? What will be some of the contracts these free agents will receive? Will I ever stop asking questions? Doubtful...or is it? We can also look forward to seeing which team goes all out and opens up its wallets. The Cubs might be that team, so look out for them. And also look out for another offseason filled with Harold Reynolds and his "analysis."
Trades galore
There always seems to be one crazy trade that no one sees coming and that always makes things exciting. Maybe Jose Reyes will be sent packing, or maybe the Yankees will be the one making the big trade by sending off one of their numerous catchers or young players. Does Giancarlo Stanton get moved or will the Marlins lock him up long term? Do the Yankees make a trade for Derek Jeter's replacement? Think of this as the same as the summer's trade deadline hoopla, but extended and far more interesting. It is a guarantee that players will be changing uniforms, but a chance for a surprised trade always seems to be in the works.
The first domino
Everyone will be waiting for the first domino to fall, the first person who allows for the rest to follow suit. It could very well be someone like Brandon McCarthy, who should be signed by the Yankees if only for his Twitter talents, or maybe someone like Chase Headley. It will be interesting to see where Headley ends up especially if it is true that both the Red Sox and Yankees are interested in his services.
A-Rod
Ah, yes. The time is here again for the hoopla surrounding Alex Rodriguez to begin again. Expect the media to follow A-Rod's every step all the way up to spring training. Although you shouldn't expect A-Rod to be cut loose, as that seems very unlikely to happen. So let's embrace all that will come with his return. Could be positive. Who knows?
New commissioner, New rules
Bud Selig's terror reign is finally over, so with that, a new commissioner, Rob Manfred, will step up. We may very well see the same song and dance, but new changes could occur as well. Look for the replay situation to be the first that is altered even more.
Which aspect of the offseason are you most looking forward to keeping you distracted from the long winter?
I was going to write about how much the 2014 Giants remind me of the 2000 Yankees.
This was a team on its last legs. It was the core's third title. It was a team that probably shouldn't have been in the World Series to begin with, but that had won out on grit and determination and unbelievable luck. And because, when I look at this roster, I really think this is a team that is rising more than it is setting.
But watching Pablo Sandoval catch that final out reminded me too much of Charlie Hayes. Which is stupid, because Sandoval is a legit All-Star. Meanwhile, although Hayes came up through the Giants' farm system, he was a bit player who never spent more than three seasons in the same place. He was a Yankee for an entirely forgettable .257/.297/.409 '92 season, and then he was brought back for 20 games of '96.
Watching Madison Bumgarner reminds me of watching Andy Pettitte. Which is stupid, because Andy Pettitte never approached the heights Bumgarner achieved this postseason. But in Bumgarner's easy delivery, and in the way his brilliant pick off move kills the running game, and in the way you just knew, once he took the mound that the game was over... For the record, I would have started Bumgarner (you've got a great young pitcher on one of the best streaks in the history of the game, why wait until you're trailing?), and also for the record, every inning that Bruce Bochy sent Bumgarner back out there I said "I can't believe he's still pitching."
Watching Buster Posey fight back tears on the postgame interview reminded me of Paul O'Neill. Because he's a hard-nose player. Because, despite his 2012 MVP award, I think he might be the most underrated player in the game (which is what Paul O'Neill was while he hit .317/.397/.517 from '93-'98). Because I can never turn away from a guy who wears his heart on his sleeve. Because I'd rather have a team full of guys who care like that than a team full of Mark Teixeiras who put up bigger numbers but who aren't willing to put the team ahead of the hunt for those big numbers by bunting when the other team offers you half the field
Seeing Tim Hudson celebrate reminds me of Wade Boggs. Which is stupid, because Tim Hudson didn't ride a horse around the stadium. Which is stupid, because Tim Hudson has never been confused with the sort of inner circle Hall of Famer that Wade Boggs was in the peak of his career. But Hudson was a guy for whom the postseason was a birthright throughout the early stages of his career. And he cemented his reputation as one of the great pitchers of his generation because he was a survivor. He could have Adam Dunn'd his way out of Major League Baseball, but he was the right combination of lucky and good. And I'm so happy he finally found a championship team.
It's About the Money | Domenic Lanza: Brandon McCarthy provides us with yet another Twitter gem. This time in response to Ryan Theriot's ill-advised tweets.
Jon Lester has been making Yankees fans miserable for a while now as part of the Boston Red Sox pitching staff. After being traded to the Oakland Athletics ahead of the 2014 deadline possibly signified a true end to Lester's tenure in Boston, the left-hander has hit the free agent market just before his 31st birthday. Seeing as the Yankees have only one left-handed pitcher under contract for next season, and he happens to come along with a giant question mark and degenerative knees, it might be worth it for the Yankees to pursue Lester if the price is right.
With a 6.1 fWAR, Lester had a contract season that many players can only dream of. He turned in a career high in innings, a career low in ERA, and his highest WAR total since 2009 with the Red Sox. Those efforts will no doubt be rewarded with a shiny contract in the six-seven year range from whichever team acquires the lefty this offseason. It's easy to understand why the Yankees might be hesitant to pursue another giant contract, particularly for a pitcher over 30, with their payroll already fairly high after last offseason's spending spree. CC Sabathia's contract extension already looks pretty disastrous and the team shouldn't be in any hurry to double down on that. However, adding Lester to a rotation with Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, potentially Brandon McCarthy, and one of Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Shane Greene would certainly be formidable in the AL East after missing the postseason for two consecutive seasons.
The added bonus to pursuing Lester over Max Scherzer or James Shields would be the lack of draft compensation tied to his signing. That will likely make him more desirable to all teams, driving the price up, but the Yankees can certainly spend more money if they choose to. Not losing the draft pick would be appealing after they lost picks in the 2014 draft for signing Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. Signing Lester, McCarthy, Chase Headley, David Robertson, and, for example, Asdrubal Cabrera would allow them to keep all their draft picks. It would, however, push payroll to a much higher figure. The Steinbrenners may not be willing to part with the extra precious millions.
Left-handed pitchers have traditionally done well in the confines of Yankee Stadium, and the Yankees would be without a southpaw if Sabathia is unable to stay healthy. In that case, having Lester provide a change of pace from the righty-heavy rotation could be very beneficial. The team will have to decide whether someone like Lester is worth the investment, knowing that there is a good possibility that the end of any contract he signs won't look very good. If they wanted to sign one of the big name pitchers on the market, it seems like Lester is definitely the way to go. Rumor has it that they would rather go after names like Jason Hammel and Chris Capuano after their top choice of McCarthy. That might not be enough to satisfy a restless (and spoiled) fan base to check back in. Wouldn't three seasons in a row of missing the playoffs just continue to mean an embarrassing attendance showing during most home games? The Alex Rodriguez circus likely isn't enough to make up for that.
Would you take a chance on Lester if you were the Yankees, or do you think they are better off staying away? Do you think adding Lester would make a difference in their chances in 2015?
Rockies willing to listen on Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki - MLB Daily Dish Chris Cotillo echoes Rosenthal's report that the Rockies are open to trading Gonzalez and Tulowitzki and speculates on some possible landing spots for the two players. Of course, the Yankees and Mets are going to be at or near the top of the list whenever discussions about the star duo come up.
A-Rod confessed in DEA meeting - ESPN.com The big news around baseball is the report that Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs in a meeting with DEA officials in January. A-Rod had, of course, been suspended for PED use for the entire 2014 season.
The Yankees have already said they do not plan to pursue top free agent starters Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, which leaves them in the mix for the mid-level options. While they already have an interest in reuniting with Brandon McCarthy after his successful half-season in New York, they are also eyeing a few other options.
According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are targeting Jason Hammel and are interested in bringing Chris Capuano back into the fold. Neither would cost any kind of draft compensation, since Hammel was traded mid-season. He pitched to an impressive 2.98 ERA with a 3.19 FIP for the Chicago Cubs, however he struggled after being traded to the Athletics with a 4.26 ERA and 5.10 FIP and was a big part of their second-half slide. Capuano, on the other hand, was useful as a spot starter after he was traded as he pitched to a 4.25 ERA and 3.85 FIP in 65.2 innings with the Yankees.
While it has yet to be seen how serious their interests are, both could have their uses on this team. If the Yankees can't figure out a contract with McCarthy, the Yankees could look to Hammel as the next best mid-level starter. While McCarthy could command a three-year deal, Hammel might only net a two-year contract, at most. Capuano will cost a very small amount and could be used as a swingman depending on how they feel about people like David Phelps and Shane Greene going forward. Perhaps best of all is that neither of these signings would get in the team's way of bringing in high-end talent.
The war of the Mikes continued yesterday with Kay going off on Francesa. The word "integrity" was tossed around a lot, because sure. Pitchers and catchers report in 105 days.
In case you're curious, here's Kay ranting about Francesa. I can fully understand if you don't want to listen to it, being that the offseason is technically a vacation away from him.
Comments of the Day
River Ave U gets the COTD train rolling with the best Welcome Back A-Rod sign!
Harlan reminds us that if A-Rod played for those gritty, small market underdogs, then everything would be sound as a pound.
Andrew shows us the swagiest side of the recently retired Alfonso Soriano.
El Cruz lets us know that Brandon McCarthy laid the McSmacketh down on Ryan Theriot's candy ass!
Whether or not you found Kay's rant amusing, Bryan reminds us that he's still not really that good of an announcer.
The Amazing Spider-Ham, who for some reason uses Batman as an avatar pic instead of Peter Porker, offers his opinion on the Yankees potention offseason moves.
LTL brings up a valid argument as to why Cesar Cabral's GIF was the most cringe-worthy.
Finally, bluecheese999 reminds us of Brett Gardner kissing the Yankee Stadium dirt. 2014 was a really bizarre year.
GIF of the Day
Michael Brown needed a non-repulsive vomitting GIF for the idea of "The Yankee Way" and Lumpy Space Princess provided the lumps. Oh my glob!!!
Honorable Mod Mention
Another honorable pat on the back, as I remind you all that someone once thought that it was insane NOT to think that Derek Jeter had a clause in his contract stating that he would always hit in the 2nd spot in the lineup. This was the now infamous "2-Hole Clause" debate, ladies and gentlemen. What a year.
Fun Questions
If Michael Kay and Mike Francesa were in a daytime soap opera together, what would the name of it be?
You can't guarantee what Rodriguez will produce in 2015, but chances are good he'll be what the Yankees need.
The Yankees need Alex Rodriguez, and probably a lot more than Alex Rodriguez needs the Yankees. If the Yankees were to cut him -- they won't, but just follow along for a minute and pretend they'd listen to raving lunatics with deadlines to meet -- they would still be responsible for the remaining $61 million on his deal: A-Rod might be a pain and could fairly be labeled a distraction, but if he's free, he'd have new job offers to mull over 10 minutes after his release. The Yankees would be out $61 million, and they'd still have questions to answer, questions that A-Rod could have been the solution to.
We don't know how Alex Rodriguez is going to play after missing a year due to his 162-game suspension for his involvement with Biogenesis. His bat has slowed over the years, and taking a year off can accelerate that process. It sounds like Rodriguez has been working out like crazy in an effort to stay sharp, but he'll still be 39 years old in 2015, and at some point, no workout regimen is enough to guarantee success.
With all that being said, however, this is still Alex Rodriguez: he's on the downswing, but when you start from as high as he did, you've got a lot of room to fall. Despite playing with and recovering from injuries from 2011 through 2013, Rodriguez batted .269/.356/.441, good for a 115 OPS+. That's not elite like in A-Rod's peak, but it was right around the same production that Howie Kendrick, Mark Trumbo, teammate Mark Teixeira, Lucas Duda, Chase Utley, Nelson Cruz, and many others managed over the same period of time. Rodriguez was still a pretty good player, just one that was having trouble staying on the field.
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
A year off certainly won't hurt him from a health standpoint. He's more than two years removed from the hand injury that ruined the end of his 2012. He'll be two years removed from the hip surgery that delayed his 2013 when Yankees' camp breaks in the spring. His knees got a break, and he can finally have a normal, full offseason of workouts to get back into appropriate baseball shape, something he hasn't quite been able to do the past few seasons thanks to these maladies. As said, the question is still out there as to what his bat speed looks like, but A-Rod very well might be healthier at 39 than he was at 35, and that matters when projecting his performance.
He might have an easier time staying healthy, too, as early offseason reports indicate the Yankees want to use Rodriguez at first base and designated hitter instead of third base, the position they moved him to when they acquired him in 2004. Sure, they already have Teixeira for first base, but his last productive season came in 2012, and he just batted .216/.313/.398 over 508 plate appearances. Wrist injuries are tricky, and Teix has been dealing with one the past couple of years. It's possible he comes back strong in 2015, a couple of years removed from the initial injury, but it's just as likely he does another impression of present-day Ryan Howard instead.
Yankees' first basemen combined to produce, relative to other first basemen in the game, an 82 OPS+. Designated hitter wasn't any better, with an 80 OPS+. If Rodriguez is the hitter he was the past few seasons while dealing with an array of injuries, then he'll be a significant upgrade at either position. If A-Rod ends up being the designated hitter because Teixeira rebounds and the Yankees re-signed Chase Headley for third base, then a whole lot of lineup issues have suddenly resolved themselves.
That doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility for Rodriguez's 2015. There have been reports since the suspension began that he was staying in shape and working hard to his return, so questions about the condition of his bat speed could be a non-issue. He might be a little rusty at first, but maybe not: remember, even injured, aging A-Rod was one of the top-75 hitters in the majors from 2011 through 2013. The Yankees could use another bat like that in their lineup, just like they needed A-Rod while he was hurt and while he was suspended. You can hate on Rodriguez all you want for the admitted PED use, for his contract, or for whatever reason you've decided you hate him. The Yankees need him, though, and A-Rod is likely to give them just what they need.
It is strange to think of someone other than Derek Jeter filling the role of Yankees shortstop, but we will finally experience that in 2015. Although they have known this was coming for several years, the Yankees do not have a prospect in the farm system waiting to take his place. It looks like next year's shortstop will be coming from the free agent market, and Asdrubal Cabrera could end up being Jeter's replacement.
After spending the majority of his career with the Indians, Cabrera was dealt to the Nationals in the middle of the season. He may not be an amazing defensive shortstop, but it's hard to think that he would not be an upgrade over Jeter, right? Well, Cabrera was the worst defensive shortstop in 2013. His 2014 defense was slightly worse than Jeter's too (-4.1 compared to -4.0). Even when looking at UZR/150, Cabrera's is worse than Jeter's over his career (-10.6 compared to -7.1). Cabrera spent part of his season playing second base for the Nationals, and thus spent less time at shortstop, yet still managed to make 14 errors there in only 93 games. His fielding percentage was only .964, which is fourth worst among shortstops who played over 800 innings in 2014. Though defense is notoriously difficult to measure, none of Cabrera's stats really bode well for a team that has seen a lot of balls roll into left field over the past few years.
There is not a very strong market for shortstops this season. With JJ Hardy off of the table because he unfortunately already reached a new deal with the Orioles, the main alternatives available include: Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie and Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is very obviously the best hitter of the bunch, but he has seen several season's cut short due to injuries and he is no defensive wiz either. Jed Lowrie put up similar numbers to Cabrera this season, but he has experienced even more injuries than Ramirez, and Cabrera has the upper hand in terms of hitting for power. We've already seen what Stephen Drew can do, and while he had an incredibly poor season, he wasn't really allowed to play shortstop where he would be an asset defensively. The Yankees could probably sign Drew to a cheap contract, and it's likely that his offensive numbers would bounce back to around his career average, which would be comparable to Cabrera's 2014 numbers. Though I was not expecting to reach this conclusion, it might be a better move for the Yankees to re-sign Drew and pass on Cabrera. If they decide not to take that risk and are looking for a consistent hitter who may not be as good defensively, then Cabrera might be a good fit.
Many of you have brought up this guy as a free agent target.
In the search for more starting pitching, since James Shields will almost certainly be leaving the Royals, there are some attractive free agent targets. One of them is Brandon McCarthy. Coming off a short 2 year contract, he'll probably be looking for something more, especially since he just turned in his first 200 inning season in the majors. Despite that, his extensive injury history, lack of "ace" pedigree (like Lester or Scherzer), and the lack of a qualifying offer should keep his price down. MLB Trade Rumors has estimated 3 years, $36M. The FanGraphs crowdsourcing project sees about the same thing. There will be many teams in on him at that price.
Normally, I'd probably do something similar to what I did for Edwin Jackson. However, I don't believe that to be entirely necessary in this case. I'll present the various reasons for signing McCarthy, and then I'll present what I think to be the rebuttal that the Royals would offer against signing him.
McCarthy, over the past 2 years, has been a ground ball pitcher. This is generally a good thing; McCarthy had very good FIP and xFIP numbers in 2013 and 2014. Assuming average luck and defense, McCarthy is a valuable pitcher. However, the Royals don't seem to go after ground ball pitchers. McCarthy's ground ball tendencies will make him desirable by many teams, and the Royals may prefer to pursue a fly ball pitcher elsewhere to maximize the talent of their outfield.
As I mentioned before, McCarthy has had numerous injury issues preventing him from eating innings until this year. With the acquisitions of James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jason Vargas, the Royals clearly prefer starters who have a history of eating innings. A past clean bill of health doesn't necessarily guarantee future health, since all pitchers are injury prone due to being pitchers, but it seems the Royals think it matters. They'll see McCarthy's injury history not as a reason to depress his value but as a reason not to pursue him.
I don't know if this would matter or not, but McCarthy is also an outspoken presence on Twitter and in favor of sabermetrics. The Royals have had a reputation of sabermetric disdain, despite their analytics department, so McCarthy's personality may grate with other players on the team. Whatever you think of team chemistry, the Royals seem to value it. I don't think this would be an issue; Brian Bannister pitched for the Royals. Jarrod Dyson was very outspoken this year, and Salvador Perez is a goofball. McCarthy is a different beast, and the Royals will probably be concerned over how he would mesh in the clubhouse and with Ned Yost.
McCarthy's homer rate was a problem in 2014. Granted, he pitched for Arizona and the Yankees, but he didn't exhibit significant home/road splits in either HR/FB or home runs given up. Other teams might see regression in his future. His HR/FB wasn't really a problem in 2013, and his HR/FB did decrease after arriving in New York midseason. He has showed some homer suppression ability in the past with the Athletics, so it's reasonable to say his homer rate wouldn't be a problem in KC. McCarthy got hit really hard on fly balls and line drives this year but not last year, and his career values don't give me pause here. I think McCarthy is due for regression on both his homer rate and production allowed on contact, and the Royals' defense would help in this area. There really shouldn't be a rebuttal here.
Overall, McCarthy is a 31 year old ground ball pitcher with injury issues (though the line drive to the head was of the freak and scary variety) and possible regression. Steamer projects a 3.89 ERA and 3.75 FIP. I'd probably drop the ERA a bit with the Royals. Some teams will balk at the injury issues. Other teams will bet on the ground balls and regression. Some teams will see his strong performance with the Yankees as either a small sample size or evidence that he found something, or rediscovered something, after coming to the Yankees. He doesn't fit the Royals' MO due to his ground ball tendencies and injury issues, but the Royals should absolutely check in with his camp. I liked McCarthy at his previous contract, which was 2 years/$15.5M. I'm not sure I like him at 3/$36M, but that seems to be the consensus. McCarthy would have to give around 6 wins or so during those 3 years, and at a 2.5-2-1.5 decline, he gets there. McCarthy is an interesting option, and I'd like to have him for the right price. You could say that about roughly everyone.
What are these inferior other sports and why aren't they baseball?
So the baseball season is over. I won't say that it seems like just yesterday that it was Opening Day, because it doesn't seem that way anymore. (To me, it seems like it was just yesterday that I helped my grandparents move stuff so they can get new carpeting. Mainly because that was yesterday.) But the 2014 baseball season did seem to fly by rather quickly. Thankfully, due to the steady rate at which time passes, it won't be that long until the 2015 season will start. But we still have a few months to wait. So, I thought I'd ask our panel how they would be passing the time until baseball starts again.
Q: Now that the baseball season is over, how will you be passing the time until pitchers and catchers report?
Andrew
I will be watching the Giants and Devils (likely) disappoint me as well, in addition to writing far too much about players the Yankees probably won't acquire. #BloggerLife
John
Mainly, writing about baseball and penguins on Pinstripe Alley.
I've got some reading to get done this offseason, too. The Prisoner, The Fugitive and Time Regained. Sons and Lovers. Underworld. Maybe take another run at V. or Gravity's Rainbow.
Plus, I have a whole new season of Doctor Who to obsessively rewatch.
Harlan
November 15th: Obsess over what moves the Yankees should make. November 30th: Obsess over why said moves haven't been made yet. December 15th: When different moves are made, complain about them. February 1st: Convince myself that the Yankees are, in fact, mortal locks to win the 2015 World Series.
Doug
1) Spending more time with my family.
2) Enjoying the holidays as they're fast approaching
3) Planning my 2015 scouting road trips for the farm system.
4) Sharpening my writing skills.
5) Broadening my contact base throughout the baseball industry.
6) Following all Yankees news and process the information accordingly.
7) Working tirelessly to provide a better experience for the Pinstripe Alley follower.
Greg
I will be looking to hone my crime fighting techniques through vigorous training. I plan on buying a Salmon Ladder to help tone my abs!
Bryan
I will be passing the time by obsessively checking in on baseball rumors and news involving the Yankees, because going to work and being a good member of society is overrated. I will also distract myself by watching basketball. No, I won't. I'm not that desperate.
Jason
I will be in stasis sleep until the time is right. See you all in 2015.
Tanya
I'll be trying to acquire a baby penguin, searching for an actual adult job, cheering on the Tar Heels, working insanely late hours to write and edit articles about everything the Yankees do, lots of Netflix, and trying desperately to always be unavailable when it's time for Pinstripe Alley to write anything about Alex Rodriguez's return.
Matt F.
Well, I wanted to hibernate, but I wasn't allowed to build a stick fort in the backyard and I had to dig back up that pizza I buried. Whatever.
Thankfully, I do have teams in other sports to root for/get greatly disappointed by. That'll probably lead to some dumb jokes about those teams/sports. Then there will be some dumb jokes about current events. After that, there will be some dumb jokes about the free agents and acquisitions made across baseball. (Fingers crossed for what you're gonna do, Amaro.) Then suddenly, I'll look up and it'll be February. Which will mean it'll be time for some dumb jokes about baseball and the Yankees.
So those are our answers, and now it's your turn. What will you be doing in the offseason? Wanna come hibernate?
Levine notes that the Mets have been "the most aggressive in their pursuit" of a shortstop such as Ramirez, with the club seemingly exploring options ranging from Ramirez to Starlin Castro to Asdrubal Cabrera to Hanley Ramirez. The Mets do match up well with Chicago, as the latter is in need of young starting pitching. New York has the ability to offer up a number of young arms including highly regarded right-handers Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. Of course, it's unclear if the Mets would be willing to part with either player in a trade for Ramirez.
Both the Yankees and Dodgers are in the market for a starting shortstop as well. The Yankees are without Derek Jeter for the first time in two decades, and the Dodgers could lose Hanley Ramirez to free agency this winter.
Ramirez is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, in which he made the All-Star team for the first time and hit .273/.305/.408, good for a 101 OPS+, the second best mark of his career. Ramirez also hit 15 home runs, posted a 3.0 WAR, and stole over 20 bases (21) for the third straight season. A big selling point on Ramirez is his extremely favorable contract situation. He stands to make a total of just $20 million over the next two years assuming his $10 million option for 2016 is picked up. If he can continue to be the 2.0-3.5 WAR player that he generally has been, then Ramirez could be quite the bargain over the next couple seasons.
The White Sox have heard from numerous major league clubs about the availability of shortstop Alexei Ramirez, the 33-year-old All-Star who has been high on the list of several big-market teams. The interested teams include the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers. All of these franchises are looking for a reliable shortstop to anchor their infields.
The Mets have been the most aggressive in their pursuit of a shortstop over the past 12 months. General manager Sandy Alderson has had his top scouts looking at shortstops such as Ramirez, the Cubs’ Starlin Castro and free agents Asdrubal Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez extensively this past season. The Mets also have exactly what the White Sox are looking for if they agree to move Ramirez.
An Alexei Ramirez trade is a lot of fun to consider -- at least if it comes from the right place. There's no taking Ramirez for granted here. He's one of three players to appear in at least 156 games in each of the last five years (Robinson Cano and Adrian Gonzalez are the other two), and while his performance isn't as consistent as his endurance, his defense and offense seem to find ways to balance each other out.
Offense tails off? Here's a great defensive year. Power disappears? Here's 30 steals out of nowhere. Range diminishing? He's back to 15 homers and a personal best in extra-base hits.
We know from his evasive maneuvers that he's something of a shape-shifter, but he finds ways to bring something (or some things) to the table every year. Sometimes he brings chips and dip when you were counting on him for the beer, but he's never empty-handed.
Teams would kill for that kind of reliability at an up-the-middle position, especially for a contract that really carries no risk. He's due $10 million in 2015, with a $10 million club option ($1 million buyout) for 2016. Pretty much every team in baseball would sign him for that deal if he were on the open market.
Fun facts:
Ramirez has had more 150-game seasons over the last five years than the top four free-agent shortstops combined (four).
That number drops to one if you only count games at shortstop (Asdrubal Cabrera played 151 games at short in 2011).
So it makes sense that teams would call Rick Hahn to see just how attached he is to Ramirez. And it makes sense that Hahn would have a very high price.
It says something that out of more than 40 offseason plans, only two involved a trade of Ramirez (or three, if you count the one that swapped the Dodgers' and White Sox's best 23 trade assets in a one deal). All involved teams that Levine mentioned.
Both of those make a certain amount of sense. However, when you fit them into the bigger picture, they underscore the dilemma in moving Ramirez -- it makes thoughts of contending in 2015 less realistic. Which isn't to say it's a bad idea, because one can argue the merits of a lateral-ish move in 2015 to collect/align talent for a bigger push in 2016. It just doesn't fit the direction Hahn has described, is all.
If the Sox wanted to both trade Ramirez and aggressively pursue 2015 wins, then it'd probably require another move to avoid a huge drop-off at short. I don't think you could put the position in the hands of Marcus Semien and Carlos Sanchez and count on 82+ wins, which means the Sox would have to try a trade for an MLB/MLB-ready shortstop (the Diamondbacks have three of them!) or scale down a smidge in free agency (maybe Stephen Drew provides 90 percent of Ramirez's production on a similar deal?).
If I had to wager, I'd bet that the Sox hold onto Ramirez. He fills a hole for the big-market teams, but he's just as good for the White Sox's plans and payroll, so I'd assume Hahn would drive too hard a bargain. It's an idea worth batting around during the speculation season, though, because if the Sox pulled off that stunner, there'd probably be another equally newsworthy move to follow.
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
