After filing for salary arbitration on Tuesday, Ivan Nova and the Yankees came to an agreement on a new contract without having to go through a messy hearing. The two sides agreed to a $3.3 million contract that matches the amount the right-hander earned in 2014 during his first stint through the process. Nova, of course, only made four starts last year, pitching to an atrocious 8.27 ERA in 20.2 innings, before going down with an injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, so it makes sense for the Yankees to withhold a raise after a lost season.
Many expect Nova to return from rehab sometime around midseason. The rotation is projected to be Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi, and Chris Capuano at the moment, but after David Phelps and Shane Greene were moved, the questionable nature of the starting five means that a healthy and effective Ivan Nova would go a long way for a team hoping to stay in the playoff hunt. Unfortunately, there's no reason to expect him to return and be the dominating pitcher he was at the end of 2013 or even a league-average one. It usually takes about a year and a half for Tommy John surgery survivors to return to something that resembles normal, but we can hope for the best.
Now 28 years old, this is his second time through the arbitration process. He will do it again next year and will then be a free agent after the 2016 season. The Yankees only have to do this three more times after they traded away arbitration eligible players Francisco Cervelli, Shawn Kelley, and David Phelps. In the coming days we should hear about the two sides also coming to terms with Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, and David Carpenter, as well.
On Teixeira's breathing, slow starts and current lack of power.
(While Ray gives out his sleepers for the year, I have decided to pick one player from each MLB team as the worst player on that team. While this has nothing to do with fantasy and I wouldn't recommend actually taking my advice not to pick these players, my picks are more to do with personal matters. Next up: the New York Yankees.)
Let's get this out of the way: your breathing. For the love of all things Jeter, your breathing. What is up with that? When you enter the batters' box, you inhale and exhale like it is your last breath. That is nothing compared to what you do when you swing. Where did this come from? What's the point? Are you trying to create even more wind when you swing and miss once again? Are you hoping the breath will cause the ball to go farther? I'm afraid for your health that one time you will pop a muscle from breathing so hard.
Secondly, the slow starts. How in the world does this still happen? You are a veteran now. You should be over this whole "well, he always struggles in April and May" yearly routine. Can you imagine someone in sales getting away with that? "Well, he didn't even come CLOSE to his quota this quarter, but you know, he always starts out the year slow. We can give him some time!" That would never happen. That guy would end up selling Mark Teixeira knock-off jerseys on the uptown 4 train. They wouldn't sell well early in the season, either.
What causes this? Did something tragic happen to you in those months that you can't even begin to concentrate on hitting a baseball until June? Are you that worried about a horse finally winning another Triple Crown that you put baseball aside until after the Belmont Stakes? Are you still reeling from that April when (spoiler alert!) you found out the Easter Bunny is not real? You are paid (handsomely) to hit a ball no matter what month it is. It shouldn't matter that it is the first part of the season. It's like you drop everything baseball-related after the season only to find out in March that, oh yeah, I have to play another season. You are the Shaquille O'Neal of baseball!
Your power numbers are down as well. Is the short porch at Yankee Stadium TOO far for you? Do they need to bring it in until it is of Little League proportions? I will make you a bet that I could knock one out of right field in Yankee Stadium given 50 batting practice pitches. If not, I will donate a whopping $10 to your favorite charity. That is how confident I am. It's not like you are getting on base at a great rate either. You batted just .216 last year, in a hitter-friendly park while sitting on your butt most of the time not even playing defense.
You don't deserve to share the same birthday as me.
The more I listen to this song, the more I think it'd make for a fascinating entrance song for a closer. If you're reading this, Betances, think about it. Pitchers and catchers report in Michael Pineda days. (Don't think about it, Dellin)
Not much going on in the ol' Yankee Universe right now. The Yankees did avoid arbitration with Ivan Nova, so that's definitely something. Ty Hensley seems to be recovering well from his assault, so that's also promising. There are rumors that the Yankees might have a Willie Randolph day at the stadium this year. If so, I will absolutely be attending it.
Comments of the Day
This is the only Comment of the Day from yesterday. It's about beer. Beer! I'm gonna have to hold an intervention for everyone on the board for all this flagrant alcohol consumption!
GIF of the Day
Sigh. I miss GIFs. I miss baseball. I miss GIFs of baseball.
Does anyone else "air strum" along at 0:33? Cause I do it every single time. Man I love the lyrics to this song. As always, please link us your Song of the Day.
Feel free to use this as your open thread for the day. Keep posting those classic cheesy love songs. Maybe stick to just the 70's for today?
Happiness is when you really feel good about somebody.
The Yankees are said to be interested in Johan Santana, but would anything meaningful come from signing him?
Ah, Johan Santana. He hasn't pitched in a few years, and the last time he did he really wasn't that great. He went just 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA in 21 games with the Mets in 2012, a season sandwiched between a couple lost to injury. Still, Santana's a guy with a likable history, so the fact the Yankees are reportedly showing interest in him isn't much of a surprise.
He was a stud pretty much every year from 2003-2010, going 122-60 while never letting his ERA surpass 3.33 or his WHIP 1.23. In 2004 and 2006, when Santana was still a member of the Twins, he even won 19+ games, helping him collect a pair of Cy Young Awards before getting traded to New York in 2008.
Then again, that was the Santana of the past. The current one, unfortunately, tore his shoulder capsule prior to the 2013 season before being bought out the following winter, and though he was inked to a minor-league deal by the Orioles last year, he's still yet to return to the majors. Maybe the Yankees should be the ones to change that, or at least try to.
Just think about it. Santana, a relatively-young 36, is said to be solely focused on adding onto his legacy, and doesn't care much about the money. That being said, the simple act of inviting him to spring training and maybe giving him a temporary spot in Triple-A if he's good in March can't hurt anything, especially since the Yankees' present rotation isn't likely to stay healthy.
I mean, is anybody here actually confident CC Sabathia will get the job done next season? I personally don't even think he'll make 20 starts, but even if he does, will it be pretty? What about Nathan Eovaldi? Chris Capuano? Basically, there are many questions surrounding the Yankees pitching staff right now, so bringing in someone like Santana for the sake of his potential isn't a terrible idea.
What do you think? We all know Santana probably won't contribute much if acquired by the Yankees, but should that really hold them back from signing him?
This Yankee team is constructed for depth, rather than featuring any true superstars. That is part of a bigger trend.
There are plenty of fans looking over the Yankees lineup and missing the glory days. Which glory days tend to depend on the fan, but I think we can all agree that this lineup is inferior to the one the Yankees rolled out in 2009 or 2003 or 1998.
But that misses a bigger point: the landscape of Major League Baseball has changed since each of those pennant winners. Roster construction is different, the talent available is different, and the resources available to each team are different.
In 1998, 28 players posted wRC+ of 140 or better, 59 posted wRC+ 120 or better.
In 2003, 20 players posted wRC+ of 140 or better. 55 at 120 or better.
In 2009, 18 players posted wRC+ 140 or better. 58 at 120 or better.
In 2014, 16 players posted wRC+ 140 or better. 49 posted at 120 or better.
So, obviously, elite offensive performances are down, and while above average-average performances are also down in 2014, they're steadier overall.
So what does this tell you about the Yankees current lineup construction? Jeff Sullivan did a quick and dirty attempt at lineup depth evaluation the other day, and his analysis finds the Yankees to be one of the deepest teams in the league. Is it possible that what the Yankees lack in top end talent, they're prepared to make up for in flexibility and depth?
That's the mantra that Brian Cashman has repeated to the press all offseason. Let's not dodge the fact that none of the Yankees' current roster projects to reach even the 120 mark. I'd be a lot more comfortable with "flexibility" if it meant a few guys projected to be 25% above average.
But, clearly, my comfort level is part of the problem with this Yankee offseason. I want there to be a player on every team capable of a .297/.359/.555 line, like there was in 1998 when Jeff Kent was the 30th most productive batter in the league. Maybe you're wishing for 2003 Carlos Beltran (.307/.389/.522) or 2009 Todd Helton (.325/.416/.489).
Part of what's hard to appreciate about how transformative the last two years have been for Major League Baseball is coming terms with the fact that just five years after Helton posted an OBP over 400, only three players in all of baseball managed that feat in 2014. The 30th most productive batter in 2014 was Carlos Santana (.231/.365/.427).
This is particularly jarring for me, because unlike batting average, on base percentage was supposed to offer a talent assessment that was more stable. And suddenly I'm trying to understand baseball all over again. I do think that future generations will look back at this as a golden era for defenses, both for individual performances and for top down strategy. But it makes it pretty nerve racking to look at this Yankee lineup, when I can still picture Paul O'Neill or Gary Sheffield waiting for a pitch.
But, if you have nothing else good to say about this Yankee lineup, there's always the hope that if they are terrible, at least they have the pieces to try to import more talent at midseason.
No rest for the weary in the past month for the Yankees. We're back.
It's been awhile since we recorded a podcast, but the Yankees have certainly made enough moves in the past month to warrant one. There's quite a lot to get to, from trades to departures to signings to the Hall of Fame and more, so join us! As always, please subscribe to the iTunes feed if you can and give us a review if you're feeling generous! We always appreciate feedback.
[0:19] The Yankees have been wheelin' and dealin' over the past month or so [2:49] Nathan Eovaldi trade [9:57] Manny Banuelos trade [15:03] Shawn Kelley trade [22:15] Pouring one out for David Robertson [26:52] Farewell, #HIROK [29:10] Gonna miss Brandon McCarthy's tweets (and pitching) [36:15] Chase Headley is back in town, huzzah! [43:16] Stephen Drew is back... his reception is not as grand but it's whatever [49:55] On Max Scherzer rumors and other off-season plans [55:31] #HotTakes on the 2015 Hall of Fame class [1:04:04] Tweetbag: 6-man rotation, low-risk one-year starters (Brandon Beachy, etc.), Matts, Muppets, and James Shields& Scherzer's destinations [1:17:00] Non-sensical Yankee of the Week
Defense, pitch clocks, the window to win, a golden ticket for Brewers fans, and Damon's retirement.
Grant Brisbee | SBNation: Brisbee takes the best look at the state of major league baseball that I've seen this offseason. It is an entirely serious (read, not) look at where the various teams stack up against each other.
Matt Snyder | CBS Sports: Snyder reports that fresh off a successful trial run in the Arizona Fall League, pitch clocks are coming to Double-A and Triple-A next season.
Zachary Levine | Just a Bit Outside: Levine walks you through the Milwaukee Brewers' latest marketing ploy: a timeless ticket that buys you the right to cut in line to buy regular season or postseason somewhere down the line. Pretty interesting stuff. Is it worth waiting for a Brewers-Yankees playoff game?
Buster Olney | ESPN Insider ($): Olney ranks the Yankees as the tenth best defense in baseball. I think it's easy to see why he's high on the Royals (recency and exposure bias from their World Series run), but I think this Yankee squad is going to be better than tenth.
Johnny Mehler | WLBZ2: Former Yankees outfielder and 2009 champion Johnny Damon plans to officially announce his long-overdue retirement from baseball just after the start of the 2015 season.
The defensive metrics can't come to an agreement on Chase Headley's defense. What does Inside Edge scouting data say?
After an impressive two-month run in pinstripes, the Yankees locked up Chase Headley to a four-year, $52 million deal. That price felt relatively light for a player of Headley's caliber, especially compared to the five-year, $95 million the Red Sox gave to Pablo Sandoval -- who has a similar 2015 Steamer projection -- just three weeks earlier.
One of the factors that makes Headley's contract seem so team friendly is the value he provides on defense. Per UZR, Headley's been one of the best third sackers in the game over the past few years, racking up 35 runs above average since 2012 -- more than any other other third baseman. Not all agree with UZR's rosy outlook of Headley's defense, however. FRAA and DRS -- the house metrics for Baseball Prospectus and The Fielding Bible respectively -- peg him much closer to average.
Even the Yankees themselves have talked down Headley's defense. Here's a quote from Brian Cashman from last July, when the Yankees acquired Headley from the Padres:
I think there's some confusion on the metrics about what he really is... Our scouts have him as an average third baseman.
In sum, UZR thinks Headley's a defensive wizard, while just about everyone else -- including his own team -- pegs him close to league average. Based on what I saw last year, Headley certainly looked like a plus defender. I remember him making more than a few nice diving stops, like this.
And this...
But I don't trust my eyes. Not only do I have zero training in evaluating a player's defense, but as a Yankees fan, I've grown accustomed to watching poor defensive third basemen these last couple of years -- guys like Alex Rodriguez, Kelly Johnson, Eduardo Nunez, and even Kevin Youkilis. Of course Headley looks good after watching that crew. Headley's defense might seem outstanding in context, but in the grand scheme of things, it may not be anything special.
So the metrics can't come to a consensus on Headley's defense and our own eyes can only tell us so much. Now what? Luckily, there are people out there who are paid to watch these players and objectively analyze each play. Inside Edge evaluators judge the catchability of each ball hit in a fielder's general direction and document whether or not he made the play. Using their aggregate data, we're able to get a sense of how Headley performed relative to league average according to the eyes of skilled observers. In the charts below, the blue line represents Headley, while the red line represents Major League third basemen as a group.
By this analysis, Headley clearly looks like a better-than-average third baseman. Although he rarely makes the super tough plays, he makes most of the routine ones, and more than his share of the plays that fall somewhere in between. A plot of every play Headley made last year illustrates this a bit more clearly.
Lots of green and yellow dots, but just a handful of oranges, and not a single red. I think this makes it pretty clear that Headley's defense at the hot corner is something less than elite. Sure, he makes a lot of nice plays -- more than most, even. However, he rarely makes the jaw-dropping ones that separate the great fielders from the very good ones. Since 2012, Headley's made just 2% of the plays deemed "remote" by the Inside Edge scouts, putting him well behind defensive wizards like Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, and Mike Moustakas.
But luckily for Headley, those difficult opportunities are few and far-between.
The meat and potatoes of playing a good third base aren't the high-difficulty plays, but the "routine" and the "likely" ones. These plays make up 87% of all opportunities at the hot corner, and Headley converts these balls into outs more often than your average third baseman. This alone makes him an above average third baseman, even if he lacks the range to be one of the elites.
In case you forgot, the Yankees re-signed Stephen Drew to one-year, $5 million contract two weeks ago. Because of the implications the move had on the 40-man roster, the deal was only officially announced today. In order to make room for Drew and keep the roster at 40, the Yankees decided to designate outfielder Eury Perez for assignment.
Perez was picked up by the Yankees from the Nationals this past season and got into a few games with the big league team in September. The 24-year-old collected two hits and stoke a base in only four games for the Yankees and at one point looked like a candidate for the fourth outfielder job in 2015. Once Chris Young was re-signed and Tyler Austin and Mason Williams were place on the 40 to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, Perez became widely replaceable with a total of eight outfielders on the roster. He has enough talent that he will likely be picked up by another team, but if he somehow makes it through waivers he should be an everyday player at Triple-A.
I had previously identified Eury Perez as a possible DFA candidate along with Gonzalez Germen and Jose De Paula. With Germen already gone after the acquisition of Chris Martin from the Rockies and De Paula likely to be part of the Scranton rotation, Perez made the most sense to be given the boot.
Now that Stephen Drew is officially on the roster, it means that the Yankees don't have enough room for both Jose Pirela and Rob Refsnyder to make the team, as many have been advocating. It's also highly likely that the presence of Brendan Ryan, who is owed $2 million in 2015, means that neither prospect get a shot with the big league club out of spring training. Drew may be making it harder for the rookies to get a shot, but he won't make it impossible. Since he can play the same positions as Ryan, the Yankees can afford to cut ties with the 32-year-old defensive specialist. And as we saw last year with Dean Anna, if someone gets hurt before the season, the team won't be afraid to give an unproven rookie a chance. We just have to hope that Pirela has a better time than Anna.
It's Friday. Our eyes are looking towards the Yankees and any moves they might make. Our eyes are also looking towards the weekend. How are you celebrating your Friday night tonight? Pitchers and catchers report in 34 days.
It's Friday, so the writers at Pinstripe Alley are on high alert for any breaking news regarding the Yankees. A few writers in the know seem to think the Yankees are done making big moves for the offseason. We'll see.
Comments of the Day
Apparently River Ave U wasn't alone in his pondering.
No lone back-to-back and a belly-to-belly COTD victories for Bryan yesterday.
The topic of the pitch clock is sure to raise some debate around here.
GIF of the Day
Still no GIFs. The GOTD section is lonely.
Honorable Mod Mention
Matt Freedom and I both take home the HMM award with our classic Nunezing. Matt and I do not tiring of writing wacky scenarios for our beloved Eduardo Nunez, and apparently no one here is tired of reading them.
Fun Questions
The idea of the pitch clock buzzer is annoying. If, and only if, it becomes a permanent thing, how would you personally & hilariously spice it up?
If you could combine any two animals into one, what animal fusion would you create?
I think I first became aware of The Cardigans in the first Austin Powers movie. As always, please link us your Song of the Day.
Feel free to use this as your open thread for the day. Perhaps some classic cheesy love songs from the 90's? Or feel free to continue the pitch clock debate. Or talk about anything you want! It's Friday. Perhaps a GIF party?
Is this reason to be optimistic about the Yankees in 2015?
Buster Olney of ESPN released some rankings on bullpens, offenses, and defenses around the league at this point of the offseason with the Yankees obviously coming out looking the best in the bullpen department. More moves could obviously happen at any point between now and when the team reports to spring training in Tampa, but this is how Olney sees them falling in amongst their competition as of right now. The results might be a little surprising.
With the addition of Andrew Miller and an overhaul in supporting cast, Olney ranks the Yankees' bullpen as second in baseball just behind the three-headed monster of the Kansas City Royals relievers. Miller and/or Dellin Betances are expected to close games down for New York in 2015, giving them a similar one-two punch that they had before David Robertson's departure. The Yankees have a wealth of young relief talent waiting in the wings for their call to the majors with last year's top draft pick and strikeout machine Jacob Lindgren leading the pack. If any of the relievers not named Betances or Miller should falter during the season there should be a rookie close by who is ready to step in and pick up the slack.
After upgrading their defense at multiple positions with the acquisition of Didi Gregorius and the signings of Chase Headley and Stephen Drew, Olney ranks the Yankees' defense as tenth best in the majors. The top spot once again goes to the Royals, who showed their knack for making tough defensive plays in last season's playoff run. Seeing as the Yankees have been used to having a defensively-challenged Derek Jeter manning shortstop and an ever-aging Alex Rodriguez at the hot corner, upgrading to the gloves of Gregorius and Headley should make the left side look pretty slick this season. The team will be depending on that upgraded defense to keep runs off the board to make less work for an offense than is something less than a juggernaut, to say the least.
The most surprising of Olney's rankings for the Yankees likely comes in the offense department where he has them ranked tenth in all of baseball. It's hard to imagine a team that just couldn't seem to score runs for long stretches last season being among the better hitting teams without adding a great bat to the mix, but perhaps Olney believes, as the Yankees front office seems to, that the under performers from last year will regress toward their career numbers in 2015. That's going to mean a lot is riding on the likes of Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Beltran. It will also mean that Stephen Drew is going to have to be less of a disaster with the bat than he was in his brief stint in New York last season. Hopefully the team will be ready to swap him out for Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela if he fails to turn things around.
New York's starting rotation didn't make Olney's list, which could very well be due to the fact that it's hard to view it as any sure thing with all of the injury concerns surrounding Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and CC Sabathia. If those three are healthy and effective, the team should be in pretty good shape on the pitching front. If those three, or at least the first two, are unable to stay on the field it's going to get pretty ugly. Simple as that. Hopefully health is more on the team's side in 2015.
Do you think Olney is too optimistic or pessimistic about the Yankees as they currently stand? If he's right, how do you feel about the team's chances to snap their recent streak of sitting home in October?
If you remember, the Yankees will be establishing a new affiliate team in the Appalachian League for the 2015 season. The new advanced rookie team will replace one of the two rookie ball affiliates from last season and provide young players with better competition. The organization has now announced the inaugural coaching staff that will help those prospects improve this year.
Just days after confirming to reporters that he would serve as a roving instructor throughout the Yankees minor league system and denying that he was to be the first manager of the Pulaski Yankees, Tony Franklin, the former longtime manager of the Trenton Thunder Double-A affiliate, was then announced as the new Pulaski Yankees manager. As it turns out, he will serve as a roving instructor during the spring months of the season, spending time with prospects in Low-A Charleston, High-A Tampa, Double-A Trenton, and Triple-A Scranton beginning in April and will then move over to his duties as manager once the league's season starts in June. The Appalachian League is much like the short season NY-Penn League and will allow him to perform both jobs in the same season.
Franklin's staff is comprised of pitching coach Justin Pope, hitting coach Edwar Gonzalez, defensive coach Hector Rabago, athletic trainer Josh DiLoreto, and strength and condition coach James Gonzalez. Pope is a one-time pitching prospect who played in the Yankees organization between 2003-2007 and has previously served as the manager of the State Island Yankees. Edwar Gonzalez and Hector Rabago are also former players; Gonzalez was an outfielder who was in the organization from 2001-2010 before he retired at 27, while Rabago played catcher, second base, and third base from 2009-2013.
Having a new affiliate inside the organization is a fun little thing to look forward to in the Yankees system if you're a prospect hound. Hopefully it will help to expose younger players to higher levels of play earlier on in their development, but it's also nice to see the organization put together a coaching staff that can lead these kids this year. Tony Franklin is well liked by both players and the Yankees, so while he's not as exciting as finding out who will actually play for the team, he's at least maybe the second best thing. The players themselves should be the next announcement about the Pulaski Yankees. At least I hope they are already.
The deal represents a sizable raise for the big righty in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
Chad Jennings of LoHud is reporting on Twitter that the Yankees and Michael Pineda have avoided arbitration, agreeing instead to a $2.1M salary.
When he was on the mound, Michael Pineda was as dominant as nearly any pitcher in baseball last season. His 1.89 ERA was twice as good as the MLB average, and he boasted sterling peripherals as well: 8:1 K:BB, 0.83 baserunners per inning, and only 0.6 HR/9.
As dominant as his 2014 performance was, it was marred by a series of issues. He was ejected from an April start against the Red Sox for taking the mound with an egregious amount of pine tar smeared on his neck. His subsequent suspension was elongated by a DL stint that kept him off the mound until August. When he returned, he became an undisputed ace. Even in his three losses in the second half, he allowed a total of three earned runs in 18.1 innings of work. If the Yankees are going to contend in 2015, it will because Pineda holds his second half form and stays healthy.
Off topic, but notable all the same: this contract is another win in a long line of correct predictions for MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration algorithm, which predicted $2.1M exactly. At what point does the existence of the page begin to influence the outcomes? How many agents and GMs sit down together to negotiate, agree that no one wants to go to arbitration and say, "That sounds fair to us, how does it sound to you?" Obviously, they've got to get it close to right in the first place, because if one side or the other was sure they could win, they'd fight it out.
Cross one more step off the Yankees' offseason to do list. Spring training can't start soon enough.
Cashman comments on the hitting coaches; Pentland talks about Didi; Scherzer rumors; defensive shifts; Pentland on A-Rod
ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews: Because both Jeff Pentland and Alan Cockrell have similar philosophies on hitting, Brian Cashman thought it only logical to go with two hitting coaches. To boot, an insider said that Pentland's communication skills are so top-notch that, for example, Barry Bonds would only listen to him.
New York Post | Dan Martin: Jeff Pentland, the new Yankees' hitting coach, raved about the athleticism and potential of Didi Gregorius. Even though he is young and requires a bit more patience, Pentland believes he has enough upside to settle into a very competent hitter.
NBC Sports | Craig Calcaterra: Trying to read into vague comments from the Yankees' front office and ownership is much like covering the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Because the team has no intentions on making public its plans regarding Max Scherzer, reporters are forced to interpret "It's not over till it's over" as a meaningful statement of intent.
NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: One of Jeff Pentland's plans for the offense is to make adjustments for shifts. If the players are open-minded and willing to make adjustments, he believes that he can coax the team, especially pull-hitters like Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann, into hitting more balls up-the-middle and to the opposite field.
NorthJersey.com | Pete Caldera: As someone who has a great respect for his career, Jeff Pentland has stated that he is enthusiastic about getting the chance to work with Alex Rodriguez.
A Nationals shortstop might be enticing to the Yankees.
Obviously, every player is available for the right price. Ian Desmond is one of the top shortstops in baseball, so we know the price would be steep. The Nationals recently swapped former Yankee farmhand Tyler Clippard (hey, the Jonathan Albaledejo trade!) for former Rays shortstop Yunel Escobar (who has now been traded twice in a week).
All of baseball knows that the Yankees' farm system has gotten better with strong player performances in 2014 and with the arrival of several prospects via trade this winter. They've hesitated to trade for Cole Hamels because his premium salary negates some of his value. Ian Desmond isn't quite as valuable as Cole Hamels, but the difference is probably not as big as you'd think. A rumored three-way trade between the Mets, Rays and Nationals nearly sent Desmond to Flushing in exchange for the Mets' #1 prospect. (Interesting that the Mets' and Rays' ownerships also recently sided with the Nationals in their dispute with the Orioles. Totally not suggesting that there might be a connection between the two events. That would be crazy, wouldn't it?).
So, the answer is probably that Desmond, a free agent after the 2015 season at 30 years old, is not available at a price the Yankees front office will consider. But I was really thinking about Escobar. As a righty with a track record of decent defense, coming off a down year, under team control for the next three seasons, Escobar would seem like a more natural platoon partner for Sir Didi Gregorius, and a more impressive backup at second base and shortstop than Brendan Ryan. He represents a chance for a rebound season, for three years of team control (if his $7M 2017 team option gets picked up), and for the kind of incremental upgrade that Brian Cashman has obviously pursued over the last couple of years. He hit .270/.347/.342 against lefties last season, much better than Derek Jeter. Better than JD Drew, too, but you knew that already.
Could the Yankees package Ryan with a reliever for Escobar (pushing Danny Espinosa into a battle with Anthony Rendon for the 2B starting role)? Is it enough of an upgrade for both teams to make it worth the risk? I doubt it. What if the Yankees include another few million dollars? The Nationals have been vocal in the past that their payroll is "tapped out" at its current level. What if the Yankees include one of their young second basemen, either Rob Refsnyder (who's not on the 40-man and would demand a roster move before he could make the team anyway) or Jose Pirela (who's more versatile defensively but more limited offensively)? For the Yankees, would Escobar (87 OPS+ over the last three seasons and already 32 years old) as a backup at shortstop, third base and potential starting second baseman represent an improvement over Brendan Ryan and Pirela/Refsnyder?
In the end, I think if the Yankees are interested in anyone currently on the Nationals' roster, they'll wait for Desmond to become a free agent in October. But you'd have to think it's worth kicking the tires, right?
This is Eovaldi's first time through arbitration, so after making the league minimum in 2014, it's no wonder the Marlins wanted to move him before he started to get expensive. He'll be arbitration eligible through 2017 and become a free agent in 2018. The Yankees are hoping that Larry Rothschild can unlock the secrets of his arm and find a way to make him more effective than he was last year. He'll be worth the money he makes through arbitration if he develops into an above-average mid-rotation starter.
David Carpenter is also a first-time arbitration player, so it made some sense for the rebuilding Braves to ship him off for several years of control of Manny Banuelos. He's shown himself to be a pretty effective right-handed reliever, especially after his 2013 season, so he'll likely take over Shawn Kelley's role as the seventh inning guy to at least begin the season. It's possible that Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller are the only relievers that are ahead of him on the depth chart.
As much as the Yankees can absorb lucrative contracts and expensive players, the 2015 offseason has been all about saving money and shedding arbitration-eligible players like Francisco Cervelli, David Huff, and Shawn Kelley. They kept Pineda and Nova around because they have proven themselves to be worth the pay raise and they brought Eovaldi and Carpenter in because they see them as cheaper alternatives to the more expensive free agents out there like Jon Lester and David Robertson. Hopefully it all works out.
It's the weekend. There are no football games today, so the Yankees probably won't do anything. Pitchers and catchers report in 33 days.
Nothing major happened yesterday in the magical land of pinstripes. The Yankees did avoid arbitration with Michael Pineda, David Carpenter, and Nathan Eovaldi yesterday. That's something. Pineda will get a $2.1 million salary, Carpenter will get a $1.3 million dollar salary, and Eovaldi will earn $3.3 million dollars. Not too shabby.
Comments of the Day
River Ave U has set the bar pretty high for Chase Headley at third base. Hopefully he lives up to his lofty expectations.
I also support HAL-9000 voice.
BGFC got a twitter reply from one Curt Schilling. Yes, that very same kinda awkwardly crazy Curt Schilling who makes Sunday Night Baseball a bit of a chore. Um, congrats!
GIF of the Day
:(
Honorable Mod Mention
If you ask me, a good portion of the mods were acting quite dishonorably yesterday. If you didn't ask me, I'd give the nod to Waffles.
Fun Questions
Best childish grown-up get together place to go: Bowling, Laser Tag, or Mini-Golf? (Don't worry, all have booze)
What other fun theme weeks would you like to see in the Comment of the Day thread?
And with this, we end classic cheesy love song week. If you have any suggestions for the next classic cheesy love song week, get them out of your system right now. As always, please link us your Song of the Day.
Feel free to use this as your open thread for the day. Again, GIFs need love as well.
The Yankees let Derek Jeter play out the string despite his hitting woes. They might not extend the same courtesy to Didi Gregorious.
Concern about the Yankees future at shortstop had been somewhat of a tradition over the last few years. The team was fortunate enough to have a Hall of Fame shortstop who remained an effective hitter well into his late thirties, which gave them the luxury of plenty of chances to find his replacement. But when the inevitable occurred and Derek Jeter turned human and retired, the obvious replacement was not apparent. Surprisingly enough, rather than go straight to the free agent clearance aisle, Brian Cashman swung a deal for a young, cheap and cost-controlled shortstop in Didi Gregorious. An interesting prospect, but one with enough question marks that Jeter's successor might not even be here yet.
You don't get amazing young shortstops for the likes of Shane Greene, so Gregorius' major league bonafides are still in doubt. While it's expected that he'll be a massive upgrade defensively, he has yet to show much of any batting skill in the majors. Gregorious had a 76 wRC+ in 2014 and an 83 mark for his career. For reference purposes, that 2014 mark placed him 31st out of 40 for all shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances. That's probably not going to cut it in 2015 unless Gregorious proves to be a defensive wizard the like of Andrelton Simmons, which is pretty damned unlikely. I presume the Yankees have a baseline for what they need from Gregorious, but how long will he have to reach that baseline?
The team has showed a propensity for giving established veterans plenty of time to produce (Brian Roberts, Stephen Drew), but it's been a while since they gave someone as young as the soon to be 25 year-old a starting job. Yangervis Solarte was relatively youthful when he wrested the starting job away from the veteran Kelly Johnson, but he also set the world on fire in his first month or so. It would obviously be in Gregorious' best interest to come out and hit .350 for the first month, but the inverse is just as likely. Does Didi Gregorious hitting .200 going into May still have job security? It's hard to say, but that certainly won't stop me from making an educated guess.
I think it's telling that Brendan Ryan is still here and Drew was retained. While Cashman's statements on the matter indicate that Gregorious is the de facto starter, he may still have to show that he deserves the role. His 2014 season and middling minor league numbers don't make for a profile of a player who is going to have a starting position on lockdown. Scouting reports on Gregorious may help him in that his quick bat may have some untapped potential in it, but not so much that the team will feel particularly invested in him if it doesn't translate to success.
My opinion is that the middle infield is a very fluid situation right now. Gregorious, Drew and Jose Pirela could all be fighting for playing time because none of them are sure starters. Steamer projects Gregorious to have a .241/.302/.357 triple slash, and I think that's about the minimum output he'll need to keep his job. He'll be well served getting off to a hot start and entrenching himself so Joe Girardi isn't tempted to give his job to the veteran Drew.
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2015 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book, so order early and order often!
All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS
Grade A prospects are the elite.In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for the full analysis about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much.A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Hunter Renfroe, OF, Grade B+/Borderline B. Age 22, hit .295/.370/.565 in 69 games in California League, then .232/.307/.353 in 60 games in the Texas League, stole 11 bases combined. Excellent power but contact issues are obvious, though he’s made adjustments before. I think the upside justifies the grade but it is not risk-free. 2) Matt Wisler, RHP, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 22, posted 4.42 ERA with 136/42 K/BB in 147 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 157 hits. PCL environment worked against him and reports see him as more of a number three starter than an ace-type, not that there is anything wrong with that. 3) Rymer Liriano, OF, Grade B/Borderline B+: Age 23, hit .291/.362/.473 with 20 steals in 115 games between Double-A and Triple-A, but just .220/.289/.266 in 38 major league games. All the tools are here but his approach is still rather raw. 20/20 potential if he can show sufficient polish for it to manifest, which is still an open question.
4) Austin Hedges, C, Grade B-/Borderline B: Age 22, draws constant praise for excellent defensive skills. Completely overmatched by Double-A pitching however, with some reports (not all) indicating reduced bat speed, swing mechanical troubles, over-aggressive approach. Hit .225/.268/.321. Many scouts still believe in the bat but there are more doubters than before and young catchers sometimes fail to develop offensively.
5) Michael Gettys, OF, Grade B-: Age 19, second-round pick with All-Star tools, disappointing spring lowered stock but he hit .310/.353/.437 with 14 steals in rookie ball. Still some questions about his approach and 15/66 BB/K in 213 at-bats is problematic. Could be a star, could be Drew Stubbs, could wash out in Triple-A. Very high ceiling. 6) Jose Rondon, SS, Grade B-: Age 20, acquired from Angels in Huston Street trade, hit combined .315/.363/.404 in the California League. Good defensive rep, can hit for average, young, main question will be power development. If he can manage gap power he could be a very solid regular. 7) Zechariah Lemond, RHP, Grade B-: Age 22, third round pick out of Rice University in 2014, posted 3.43 ERA with 36/5 K/BB in 42 innings in pro debut, mostly in the Northwest League. Heavy ground ball pitcher with above-average velocity and good command. Main worry is health, he’s already had elbow issues and you know the track record of Rice pitchers. Possible number three starter if arm doesn’t explode, could also be a fine reliever.
8) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade C+: Age 25, pitched 20 innings between High-A and Double-A, 2.21 ERA with 17/1 K/BB. Very slow recovery from Tommy John surgery. Stuff and pitchability appear to be intact, but he has missed almost three complete seasons with injury problems. Hard to rank/rate due to the medical concerns. Has natural ability of a number three starter but needs to show he can handle any sort of workload.
9) Franchy Cordero, SS, Grade C+: Age 20, overmatched in Low-A (.188/.237/.235 in 22 games) but improved after going down to Northwest League (.279/.329/.458) though he still showed a raw approach. Intriguing power/speed combination with nine homers and 16 steals, but bat needs polish. Glove is even worse: this is not a typo, he made 51 errors in 56 games at shortstop for a .801 fielding percentage.
10) Cory Spangenberg, INF-OF, Grade C+: Age 23, hit .317/.353/.455 with 16 steals mostly in Double-A with some rehab games at lower levels, hit .290/.313/.452 in 20 major league games. Nice line drive hitter with defensive versatility, could have a long career as a semi-regular/super-utility type.
11) Tayron Guerrero, RHP, Grade C+: Age 24, hard-throwing relief prospect posted 1.45 ERA with 56/20 K/BB in 50 innings between High-A and Double-A. Long history of command troubles but made progress last year, upper-90s heat and made progress with breaking ball. Could close if he keeps improving, middle relief otherwise.
12) Alex Dickerson, OF-1B, Grade C+: Age 24, hit .321/.367/.496 in 34 games in Double-A in injury-shortened season. Lacks great tools but has a long track record of good hitting dating back to college. Probably not quite enough homer power for a modern first baseman but should find a role somewhere.
13) Taylor Lindsey, 2B, Grade C+: Age 23.Hit .238/.306/.372 in 118 games in Triple-A, traded from Angels in Street trade. Disappointing season, despite past solid performances scouts have always wondered about his swing and it caught up with him in the PCL. 14) Jordan Paroubeck, OF, Grade C+: Age 20. .286/.346/.457 in 34 games in rookie ball, switch-hitter with power/speed upside, has contact issues and will need development time but very high ceiling.
15) Franmil Reyes, OF, Grade C+: Age 19, hit .248/.301/.368 with 11 homers, 38 walks, 118 strikeouts in 508 at-bats in Low-A. High-ceiling bat but not there yet, needs polish in all phases, tighter strike zone. 16) Rafael De Paula, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, acquired from Yankees, good fastball well into the 90s and a good change-up too, erratic breaking ball and shaky command resulted in 4.92 ERA, 145/55 K/BB in 132 innings, 135 hits in High-A. Arm strength to be very good but more probably a reliever than a starter at higher levels.
17) Fernando Perez, 2B-3B, Grade C+: Age 21, hit .284/.322/.454 with 18 homers, 25 walks, 106 strikeouts in 469 at-bats in Low-A. Limited range harms his defensive value and may move him to first base or outfield. Good power in the bat, strike zone feeling is questionable.
18) Seth Streich, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, acquired from Oakland Athletics in Derek Norris deal posted 3.16 ERA with 116/22 K/BB in 114 innings in California League. Doesn’t have the pure stuff and velocity of De Paula or Guerrero, but much better command and pitchability give him fourth starter profile, assuming he adapts well in the high minors.
19) Elliot Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Age 22, another component of trade with Angels, split season between three teams so he is easy to miss, posted composite 3.38 ERA with 117/52 K/BB in 133 innings. Low/mid-90s fastball, solid slider and change-up, another potential fourth starter or reliever.
20) Ryan Butler, RHP, Grade C+:Age 22, seventh round pick out of Charlotte in 2014, posted 2.76 ERA with 36/9 K/BB in 29 innings in debut, 11 saves, mostly in Low-A. Mid-90s, reportedly hit 100 as well, breaking stuff needs work but the arm strength for quick relief success is evident.
New GM A.J. Preller inherited a farm system that was in relatively decent shape. He quickly traded off many of his top prospects this winter for a quick major league roster boost, but there is still some talent here as well as some question-marks.
Hunter Renfroe, Rymer Liriano, Jordan Paroubeck, Franmil Reyes, and especially Michael Gettys are the basis of a sound outfield. All of them have questions to answer about their approaches and ability to make sufficient contact against advanced pitching. All of them could also become 20+ homer bats. Cory Spangenberg and Alex Dickerson don’t have the same type of upside but both should be useful role players. Jose Rondon and Taylor Lindsey, both acquired from the Angels, provide some infield depth. I don’t know what Franchy Cordero is; the tools are obvious but his defense is a real issue.
Austin Hedges draws very mixed opinions. Everyone loves his glove behind the plate, but the bat is problematic. Some Texas League observers felt that his problems were fixable and that he will eventually be a solid hitter. Other sources said he looked hopelessly lost, his bat speed down from the past and his swing fouled. The stats support the pessimistic view at this point, but he is young enough to rebound.
The Padres traded much of their minor league pitching depth. They are still headlined by the very solid Matt Wisler but can Casey Kelly stay healthy? There are several back-of-the-rotation potentialities and many bullpen options. Nobody looks like a genuine top-of-the-rotation anchor at this stage.
It will be interesting to see how the new front office handles the 2015 draft and international market. With Preller in charge, will the Padres act like a National League version of the Rangers with their drafting and development program?
The Yankees are staying quiet this winter and a look at recent history shows that might not change anytime soon.
On Wednesday, Hal Steinbrenner dumped another pot of cold water on Yankee fans still holding out hope that their team will make a run at a front line starting pitcher. He told reporters he’s satisfied with his rotation and with the job Brian Cashman’s done this off season. Though he maintained that these are still the Yankees and that anything can happen, Hal’s comments seemed to lean more toward the idea that what you see on the roster now is what you’ll get on Opening Day. If you’re someone who just can believe the Yankees will start the season with Chris Capuano in their starting five – just like you couldn’t believe they’d settle for Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli at catcher in 2013, or for Brian Roberts at second base in 2014 – it may be time to start believing.
If the Yankees 2014-15 winter plan is now complete – if the pillars of getting younger and better defensively were really what they were after and not just talking points because that’s what they were able to find – if they’re okay with could compete instead of will win – then you have to wonder what their goals are for the future. Steinbrenner’s been steadfast that you don’t need the game’s highest payroll to win championships, but it’s not like the Yankees have significantly sliced their budget or are pulling a Mets by trying to run a small market style franchise in the nation’s largest metropolis. Their projected payroll for 2015, once their arbitration cases are all settled, sits at $209.6 million according to Baseball Reference, which is second in baseball by a wide margin. For that investment you’d think they’d want more than a club whose ceiling is probably high-80’s wins and a hard-fought playoff berth.
One theory that’s been brought up a lot is that the Yankees have entered a financial holding pattern while they wait current albatross deals that are tying up their budget to expire. The guaranteed money on their ledger will dip from $182.8 million in 2016 to $120.6 million in 2017 when deals like Mark Teixeira’s and Carlos Beltran’s expire, and they’ll be down to $93.6 million once Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia are gone in 2018. In the recent past, the Yankees most prolific spending sprees have followed the termination of major commitments. In 2008, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina departed and cleared $51 million in payroll space, which promptly went toward Teixeira, Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, among others. Post-2013, Robinson Cano, Andy Pettitte, Curtis Granderson and Kevin Youkilis tore open a $52 million cash crater that was filled by Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Masahiro Tanaka.
In the years between their major re-tools, the Yankees have behaved a lot more conservatively. During the four off-seasons from 2009 to 2012, the largest deal they gave to an out-of-house free agent was Rafael Soriano’s $35 million. In the two winters before their ’08 spree, the team went all out to keep its own stars like A-Rod, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, but their most notable open market acquisition was Kei Igawa. They’ve spent $88 million on mid-tier players in Chase Headley and Andrew Miller this year, but their pattern of operation over the past decade points to the Yankees staying quiet on Max Scherzer and James Shields, and on David Price, Zack Greinke and Ian Desmond if they shake free a year from now.
There are benefits to the "every-few-years" strategy, the most obvious of which is cost continuity. If you’re replacing big contracts with big contracts instead of adding new ones, you’re not expanding your expense sheet the way the Yankees used to do routinely. Even as MLB revenues have ballooned exponentially the Yankees’ Opening Day payrolls have grown by only around eight percent since 2006's $194 million figure while remaining within a $30 million margin from highest to lowest. Compare that with the 123 percent rise in player salaries from 2000 through 2005, which included an increase of at least twelve percent each season. The luxury tax has had a lot to do with it, but it’s clear that Hal’s made a much more forceful effort to limit things than his father did. Spending in spurts also lightens the burden of lost draft picks. The Yankees gave up their first, second and third round picks in 2009 in exchange for Teixeira, CC and Burnett and their first and two comps in 2014 for Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran, but that beats coughing up consecutive first rounders to sign big name free agents every year.
The downside to the Yankees apparent approach, though, is that by keying up to spend heavy in certain years, they're limiting themselves to what’s available at those specific times. In ’08-’09, the Yankees dove into a free agent class that included baseball’s best pitcher and its eighth best position player according to fWAR. Those signings, in part, delivered a World Series title and four straight playoff appearances. But after letting Cano walk in ’13, the Yankees did their investing in a lesser caliber of free agent and this past year’s results reflected that. Looking forward, the 2016-17 free agent crop could include names like Alex Gordon, Carlos Gomez and Stephen Strasburg, but two years is an eternity. Players get hurt, they decline, and they sign early extensions more commonly than ever. In 2016, 2017, 2018 or whenever the Yankees feel ready to go nuts again, they may end up with a wad of cash in their pocket and no one worthwhile to spend it on.
