NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: YES Network caught up with Carlos Beltran and he discussed on video how his offseason rehab is going, including the increased range of motion in his elbow. He also acknowledged that he has something to prove this season and joked about looking at the back of his baseball card to motivate himself.
LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: A look at the best free agents left on the market who could help the Yankees if they decide to sign more players.
It's About The Money | EJ Fagan: Comparing fWAR by position for the 2014 Yankees, the average MLB team and what is projected for the current 2015 team.
Should the Yankees let Betances and Miller be co-closers, or should they pick one over the other for the role?
Over the course of the offseason, the Yankees opted to let David Robertson sign with the White Sox, despite the fact that he pitched well in his first year taking over the role from Mariano Rivera. The Yankees went ahead and signed lefty Andrew Miller to a cheaper deal, and there has been talk about him taking over as closer or splitting time with Dellin Betances. Now that spring training is getting closer, do the Yankees need to pick one or the other as closer?
This is a situation that the Yankees have not been in for quite some time since Mo held down the role of closer for so long, aside from the unfortunate fly ball shagging incident in 2012, when Rafael Soriano was waiting in the wings and already had that "proven closer" title. After Rivera retired, it seemed natural for Robertson to move from being the 8th inning setup man to closing out games. Now they have two really good relievers in Betances and Miller, but no one in the bullpen has actual experience in the role of closer.
There's also the question of how the Yankees will decide between the two, if they don't have them work as co-closers. It's not like this is really a decision that can be made at spring training. We know the Yankees have loved their "spring training competitions" in the past, but that seems better suited for starting pitchers or position players. Spring training lineups already aren't filled with all high-caliber players to begin with, and the best players are usually replaced with minor leaguers by the middle of the game. It would be really difficult for them to create a scenario during spring training that would have the same feel as the Yankees being up by one run going into the bottom of the ninth inning during a regular season game. They could just keep track of who has the better stats by the end of spring training, but that would probably be meaningless in determining who would be more successful as closer.
Since Miller and Betances are both good pitchers, it feels like choosing one over the other to be closer is kind of a win-win situation. Assuming that whoever isn't closer becomes the setup man, then opponents should be very wary of the 8th and 9th innings. However, if the Yankees want to go with the best overall pitcher to be the next closer, then you could make a strong case that Betances is that guy. He struck out 135 batters over 90 innings last season. He only allowed 4 home runs and 24 walks during that time. Betances finished up his rookie season with 13.50 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9, 0.78 WHIP, 1.40 ERA, 1.64 FIP and 3.2 fWAR. Opponents only had a .147 batting average against him. Betances was incredible last season, so we can probably expect him to fall back to Earth a bit.
There is also a strong case for Andrew Miller. He pitched 62.1 innings last season and during that time he put up 14.87 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, 0.80 WHIP, 2.02 ERA, 1.51 FIP and 2.3 fWAR. He held opponents to a .150 batting average. Those numbers are very similar to Betances, so again, it would be hard to be upset with either one of them winning the role of closer. Although, it has been pointed out that Miller is already locked into his contract for the next four years, while Betances won't even be arbitration eligible until 2017. If the Yankees make Betances the closer and he excels, then his 2017 arbitration salary could significantly increase at the detriment of the team. They might save money if they leave him as the setup man. On the other hand, the team will have a lot of large contracts coming off the books in 2017, and that's such a long way off that it might not even matter.
Of course, the Yankees could also opt to have Betances and Miller share the roll and just play to the matchups, but Betances and Miller were pretty even keel in 2014 in terms of their performance against left and right-handed hitters. Lefties hit .161/.205/.200 against Betances and .161/.206/.261 against Miller. Meanwhile, righties hit .133/.232/.250 against Betances and .142/.245/.202 against Miller. In December, Joe Girardi said that the team could do a lot of things in regards to naming a new closer and that it could depend on "how many days in a row a guy has worked." We also know that Girardi really likes to have set roles in the bullpen, so he might not be able to handle the 8th and 9th inning sections of his binder saying "it depends."
Do you think the Yankees should pick between Betances and Miller, and if so, how should they choose? Or do you think they should work as co-closers?
Earning a John Sterling home run call is an annual rite of passage for first time Yankees. What kind of new calls will we hear this year?
Last year's spending spree meant that Yankees radio announcer John Sterling had to put in extra work to come up with new home run calls for all the new faces. As expected, most of the new calls were truly awful and no doubt inspired fanbase-wide groans even after the first time they were uttered. Here's a look at last year's debuts that we can look forward again this year:
"Oh McCann can, yes McCann can!" - for Brian McCann
"Un correazo by Beltran!" - for Carlos Beltran, (Translation: "A belt by Beltran!")
While this off-season has been much more tame in comparison, the roster will still be filled out with plenty of newcomers. The names of these players will range from bland and boring to unique and goofy. Nonetheless, we can't wait to see how each call will turn out so we can commence loving to hate them. Will Garrett keep up with the Joneses? Is there any doubt that the call for Didi Gregorius will reference his Dutch heritage? Who will get the dubious honor of having the most ridiculous new home run call for 2015? Please vote below and let us know what you think the call might be in the comments.
Defensive shifts factored into Brian McCann's offensive slump last year, and has affected Mark Teixeira over the last few seasons. Will Pentland introduce the team to an 'up-the-middle' approach built to overcome the shift?
The infield shift is not itself a new concept, in fact it dates back to the 1920's. As far back as 1946, Ted Williams was facing defensive alignments swiftly recognisable as an extreme form of the modern infield shift. Over the last few years though, teams have begun employing the shift with greater frequency and against a wider range of batters. So much so that in 2014, the calls for banning infield shifts have echoed louder than ever before, getting nation-wide media coverage.
Verducci's column linked above explores the significant and increasingly measurable impact the shift has had on batted average on balls pulled into play by left-handed power hitters specifically. The argument for a rule change to counter the shift is an interesting one to have, I'm personally against such a change, but in either case it does not appear to be on the cards for a MLB rule review, for 2015 at least.
This has a clear impact on the New York Yankees lineup for next year, a lineup that will feature Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran as key middle-order bats. All three have a clear tendency to pull the ball when batting from the left side - Teixeira and Beltran are switch-hitters - and so will on occasions face shifted defenses.
Right from the start of 2014, Brian McCann started seeing shifts at a higher frequency compared to his time with the Atlanta Braves. This likely had an impact on his slow start to the year. Of all players on the Yankees, McCann was probably most affected in 2014, with Teixeira having seen regular shifts during the bulk of his six seasons on the team.
Ultimately McCann rebounded from his 69 wRC+ April to post a 92 wRC+ mark for the year and he was nearly an average hitter. Perhaps not quite what the Yankees had paid for, but certainly not awful from the catcher position. Looking at his batted ball profiles over the last three seasons, particularly on line drives and home runs, it's clear that the bulk of his power is to his pull side. So are his groundballs, which are where the shift hurt him, but for all the talk of McCann trying to beat the shift this year, if anything his 2014 spray chart shows heavier lean towards his pull-side than in 2012 and 2013.
Enter Jeff Pentland. On a conference call with reporters last Thursday, the new hitting coach discussed the possibility of working with hitters towards adopting an approach towards using the entire diamond, particularly up-the-middle, as a way of countering a shift predicated on taking away pulled groundballs. This is certainly an interesting idea, though ideally one applied only if there is a way to limit power loss for players like McCann and Teixeira who provide a significant part of their offensive contribution through pull-power.
Pentland's comments suggested that his first priority is for Yankee hitters remain comfortable with their mechanics at the plate, mechanics which along with their athletic ability was what got them to the big-league level in the first place. To this end he and assistant hitting coach Alan Cockrell will discuss ideas and options with individual players and work on modifying their approach only if the player expresses interest. Even then, only in spring training, thus limiting the possibility of any experimentation with swing mechanics causing unwanted slumps during the regular season.
This approach certainly seems to be a logical one. Pentland will be around to help Yankee hitters work on any perceived flaws on their mechanics, but he won't attempt to force his ideas on unwilling players. It is after all, the player's swing, and these are major league hitters with a track record of success. The first rule here seems to be 'do no harm,' though Pentland does say that should Yankee hitters make no adjustments whatsoever, he would have failed at his task.
With this overall mindset, I find it easy to see why hitters who have worked with Pentland in the past have a high opinion of him. While I'm hoping to see McCann and Teixeira make minor changes to their approach, without abandoning their pull-power, I wouldn't be surprised to see 2015 spray charts that are similar to their 2014 ones. I'll personally be looking for small but hopefully measurable improvements next season by Yankee hitters in general, with the advice and support of Pentland and Cockrell.
Chad Jennings | LoHud Yankees Blog: Jennings takes a look at the position players left on the market. I don't know that there's a player left out there I'd consider an upgrade over the Yankees' current lineup and bench.
Benjamin Hoffman | New York Times: Speaking of unsigned players, Max Scherzer and James Shields have entered uncharted territory. No American free agent pitcher has ever signed a nine-figure contract this late in the offseason. This is certain to be the first time, but it'll be very interesting to see which team changes its tune after basically every major suitor has said Scherzer is asking too much. (Update: It's the Nationals, who gave Scherzer a seven-year, $180 million contract.)
Ken Davidoff | New York Post: At the bottom of Davidoff's article is an interesting note on Alex Rodriguez–he thinks it would be "out of character" for A-Rod to try to force his way into the lineup over new third baseman Chase Headley. I hope he's right and A-Rod can manage to put the team first.
Jeff Zimmerman | Hardball Times: Zimmerman offers an interesting argument for MLB expansion. I disagree, since while the US population in total is rising, interest in baseball has not exactly been skyrocketing. On the other hand, baseball is the most regional of the major sports. It's possible that additional franchises, particularly in the warm weather markets predicted to grow most over the next 10-15 years, might help infuse the sport with some much needed interest.
Max Scherzer is heading to the Nationals. He will not be signing with the Yankees. Hopefully the Empire will strike back with a trade of some sorts. Pitchers and catchers report in 31 days.
Things certainly happened yesterday in the wide wide world of sports. The Seattle Seahawks came from behind and beat the Green Bay Packers while the New England Patriots crushed the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams will play each other in the Super Bowl (or Superb Owl) on February 1st. In the more important sport of baseball, the ball finally dropped on where Max Scherzer is signing. He will not be signing with the Yankees, but rather with the Nationals. Good luck with that, NL East.
Comments of the Day
I think LTL's answer was so good that most people didn't feel the need to participate any further with that question, since he had already won.
Either Ledee is joking/trolling, or he is the real life Nunezing that Matt F and I make up.
Nothing more to be said here.
It will totally be "Gregorius is glorious."
DanteAmore is killing it with the Sterling Home Run Puns.
Yikes indeed. Glad our community thought that was uncalled for.
Yes, what Harlan said. If this were not a thing, someone should definitely be fired.
Come on, Yankees. Beat that shift like it owes you money!
GIF of the Day
This is getting depressing.
Honorable Mod Mention
Well Harlan had a lot of Blue'd posts yesterday, so he wins!
Fun Questions
If the Nationals were open to trading one of their starters to us, now that they signed Scherzer, which one would you want?
If you had a spaceship in Star Wars, what would you name it?
It's still an absolute travesty that this song is used to introduce the opposing players, instead of our players. If we are to be the Evil Empire, then we should absolutely embrace it. As always, please link us your Song of the Day.
Feel free to use this as your open thread for the day. What are your thoughts on Max Scherzer going to the Nationals? How do you think it will affect other teams in the NL East?
According to KATOH -- my system for forecasting prospects -- Nick Johnson was the Yankees biggest prospect flop since 1990. Why was Johnson rated so highly? And what went wrong?
Shortly before the new year, I wrote a piece for the Hardball Times chronicling KATOH -- a methodology I developed to project prospects' big league performance. I won't get into the nitty-gritty, technical details here -- feel free to check out my original piece if you're interested. Basically, KATOH looks at a hitter's age and league-adjusted minor league stats and estimates the probability that a player will reach certain WAR thresholds. These probabilities can then be used to estimate how many fWAR he's likely to accumulate through age 28.
I produced a projection for every player who played in the minors last year, and you can see how your favorite prospect projects by clicking here. But today's about the prospects of yesteryear. To identify prospects who fell short of expectations, I simply took players' actual WAR value, subtracted their projected WAR value, and found the guys with the biggest difference. So say a prospect was projected to produce 20 WAR, but only produced 15. His difference would be 5 (20-15). Got it? Good.
Without further adieu, here are the 20 biggest Yankees hitting prospect flops since 1990 according to KATOH.
I plan to take a closer look at several of these names in the coming weeks, but today I'll focus on the man atop the list–Nick Johnson. Most of the players here were middling prospects who never developed into useful big leaguers -- guys like Ricky Ledee, Jackson Melian, and Erold Andrus (brother of Elvis). But then there's Johnson, who was projected to have an excellent big league career following his 1999 campaign, but wound up having a merely good one instead. What went wrong?
Johnson's 1999 season was the stuff of legends. As a 20-year-old with Double-A Norwich, he hit a stupid .345/.525/.548. He pretty much did it all that year. He rarely struck out (15.0 K%), drew a butt-load of walks (21.0 BB%), and hit the ball with authority as evidenced by his .203 ISO and .411 BABIP. As if that weren't enough, he also showed non-terrible speed by going 8-for-14 on the basepaths. Seasons like that just don't happen all that often, which is why Johnson's 1999 campaign produced the third best KATOH projection on record behind Cliff Floyd's 1993 and Vladimir Guerrero's 1996 seasons. Johnson's performance was enough to vault him to #5 on Baseball America's top 100 list the following winter. In terms of pure offensive potential, Johnson was arguably the best prospect out there, and he was just about ready to bring his act to the Major league level. Unfortunately for Johnson, injuries–particularly of the hand and wrist variety–prevented him from ever reaching his ceiling.
The first warning sign came the following spring training when he strained his wrist while taking a swing. The injury wasn't originally supposed to be anything serious, but took much longer than expected to heal, leading him to sit out the entire season. Even after missing all of 2000, Baseball America pegged him as the #10 prospect in baseball. He returned to action in 2001, where he hit .256/.407/.462 in Triple-A Columbus before making his big league debut that September. His 2001 season was very good, but much less exciting than his monster 1999, causing his KATOH projection to plummet to 9.6 WAR. Baseball America dropped him to #13 on their annual list.
Johnson was in the big leagues for good from there on out, spending two years with the Yankees before he was dealt to the Montreal Expos in the Javier Vazquez deal. Johnson actually developed into an excellent hitter. From age 24-28 (2003-2007), he put up an amazing 136 wRC+, but only averaged 89 games per year over this time due to a litany of injuries. The biggest blow of all came on September 23rd 2007, when he broke his right femur (thigh bone) in a collision with Austin Kearns. Ouch. He was never quite the same after that.
Here's a (very long) list of Johnson's injuries...
Despite all of the injuries, Johnson managed a pretty solid career, accumulating 12.6 fWAR through his age-28 season. That may not seem like a lot, but is actually a healthy total. Of the 65 28-year-old hitters who played in the majors last year, only 11 reached Johnson's mark. Many more fell short, including some very good players like Lorenzo Cain, Todd Frazier, and Matt Carpenter. Still, Johnson came nowhere close to fulfilling the potential he had as a 20-year-old when he looked like a superstar in the making. The fact the he managed to be as productive as he was is a testament to his raw talent, but it also leaves us thinking about what might have been if his body wasn't so darn fragile.
If the Nats decided to unload a starter like Jordan Zimmermann or Stephen Strasburg, the Yankees should at least inquire about a trade.
At the strike of midnight last night, the Washington Nationals shook the baseball world by locking up former Tigers ace Max Scherzer, the best starter on the free agent market, to a reported seven-year, $180 million contract. With a talented core and a relatively weak NL East surrounding them, the Nationals made their play and they now possess one of the most dangerous starting rotations baseball has seen in some time. Once the ink is signed, Scherzer will become the ace of an absolutely loaded rotation that already features a trio of excellent starters in Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister in addition to the solid Gio Gonzalez.
Unfortunately for fans who just want to see the Nats run hogwild on the National League this summer, it appears that the team's owners, the Lerners, don't want to keep all of these starters:
#Nats prepared to trade starter if they sign Scherzer. Zimmermann most likely candidate but one source says Nats would listen on Strasburg.
For teams like the Yankees who need improvements to their rotations but didn't want to give over $180 million to Scherzer, this news has to spark some interest, even if some insiders heard news to the contrary. Morosi even noted that the Nationals have been shopping Zimmermann for "weeks" now, perhaps while hoping for the finalization of Scherzer's contract.
Although there would be some prospect cost behind acquiring a Nationals starter, there's no reason for the Yankees to ignore the possibility of adding one of them. This is a team whose top two starters (Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda) are talented but significant injury risks. After that, it's a veteran who might never pitch the same again due to degenerative knees (CC Sabathia), an unfinished product who hasn't pitched in the AL (Nathan Eovaldi), and the artistic stylings of Chris Capuano. The rotation is incomplete right now, but if the Yankees added even the worst of the Nationals' starters, it would be a boost.
The possibilities:
Jordan Zimmermann
Age as of Opening Day: 28 2014 stats: 32 GS, 199 2/3 IP, 2.66 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 182 K, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 4.9 rWAR Career stats: 145 GS, 892 1/3 IP, 3.24 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 739 K, 7.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 16.7 rWAR Current contract: Owed $12M in 2015, free agent at end of season
The most likely candidate to be dealt, according to Morosi, Zimmermann has been the teams's most consistent starter over the past few years and was the Nationals' ace in 2014. A second round pick from the 2007 draft out of Wisconsin, Zimmermann had a bit of a rocky start to his MLB career in '09 before it was revealed that he needed Tommy John surgery. He went under the knife that August and remarkably returned to the major league mound almost a year to the day he underwent the procedure.
The Nationals restricted Zimmermann to about 160 innings in 2011, and he was fully ready to go when they won their first NL East title in 2012. He was superb that year with a 2.94 ERA, a 3.51 FIP, and 4.7 WAR in 195 2/3 innings. Unlike Strasburg, he was not shut down at the end of the season, but he did not pitch well in the Nationals' crushing five-game NLDS loss to the Cardinals. Zimmermann shook it off and has been an All-Star pitcher the last two seasons for the Nats, earning Cy Young votes in both seasons as well.
The righty is one of the better pitchers in the game, and even for a one-year rental prior to Zimmermann's free agency, the cost to acquire would not be minuscule. There have not been many such deals over the past few seasons for a full season of an accomplished pitcher. The best comparison might actually be what the Yankees sent to the Braves to acquire Javier Vazquez in December 2009 a year prior to his free agency. As hard as it might be to believe, Vazquez was quite good for Atlanta in '09, notching similar numbers with a 2.87 ERA and 2.77 FIP in 219 1/3 innings.
To get Vazquez and reliever Boone Logan, the Yankees dealt a decent regular in Melky Cabrera, a Top 100 Prospect in A-ball (Arodys Vizcaino), and a relief prospect, Mike Dunn. I'm not going to pretend to guess who the Nationals would want actually in a trade, but a similar package would probably be about what it would cost. Another comparison might to be to see what the Brewers get in return for Yovani Gallardo, who is reportedly headed to the Rangers as a one-year rental; since Gallardo isn't as good as Zimmermann, that's the starting point. For someone as talented as Zimmermann, it would be tempting to pull the trigger, even for just one year. (And hey! He won't have to deal with as much confusion without Ryan Zimmerman as his teammate.)
Stephen Strasburg
Age as of Opening Day: 26 2014 stats: 34 GS, 215 IP, 3.14 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 242 K, 10.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.5 rWAR Career stats: 109 GS, 649 1/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 746 K, 10.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 11.9 rWAR Current contract: Owed $7.4M in 2015, under team control through end of 2016
At this point, most baseball fans can likely recall Strasburg's saga. He was one of the most-hyped draft prospect in history, and there was no doubt that the Nationals would select him first overall in the 2009 draft. The much-anticipated #Strasmas finally came on June 8, 2010, when he had a sensational debut, striking out 14 Pirates in seven innings. His first 12 big league starts were as exciting as any fans had witnessed from a prospect in quite awhile, but like Zimmermann, Strasburg also fell victim to Tommy John surgery. Fortunately for him, also like Zimmermann, he returned to the mound almost a year to the day after the procedure. (The Braves only wish they had the Nationals' luck with Tommy John rehab.)
Strasburg showed no ill effects of Tommy John in 2012, when he was named an All-Star and pitched superbly, recording a 3.16 ERA and 2.83 FIP in 28 starts. Much to the chagrin of their fans, the Nationals cut his season short in mid-September, preventing him from pitching in the playoffs. Some fans have even been a bit frustrated with his performance over the past two years, but he's pitched much better than his 22-20 record since 2013 indicates. He led the NL in strikeouts in 2014 and was fourth in the league in FIP. Make no mistake--Strasburg's still a strikeout machine who barely walks anyone. The idea of Strasburg in pinstripes becomes even more alluring given that he might actually be on the market:
Hearing #Nats RHP Stephen Strasburg is very much available and both sides believe it is time to move on. #MLB
Unfortunately, Strasburg would be even more difficult to acquire than Zimmermann, as he has two years of team control remaining and trading him away would send shockwaves. To get James Shields for two years of control (and then-starter Wade Davis), the Royals sent away an impressive package of four prospects to the Rays, led by Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. It was, of course, considered a high cost at the time, but to get Strasburg, imagine a similar caliber package in return. Although I doubt the Yankees have enough high-end prospects to actually receive Strasburg, he is someone talented enough that I would trade almost anyone to get him. He's that good, and fans can only prospect-hug so much.
Doug Fister
Age as of Opening Day: 31 2014 stats: 25 GS, 164 IP, 2.41 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 98 K, 5.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 4.5 rWAR Career stats: 152 GS, 982 2/3 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 669 K, 6.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 18.9 rWAR Current contract: Owed $11.4M in 2015, free agent at end of season
Few pitchers are as well-liked by Internet baseball writers as Fister. A seventh round draft pick by the Mariners in 2006, he's been among the most consistent pitchers in baseball since 2011. Over this four-season period, he's averaged 28 starts per season and notched a 3.11 ERA and 3.37 FIP while walking basically no one (1.7 BB/9). He's not a strikeout pitcher like his rotationmates, but his sinking fastball has led to a ground ball rate that typically hovers around 50%. Opposing hitters just don't make great contact against Fister's repertoire.
Strangely, he's been dealt twice in his career already for returns that weren't particularly impressive. First, the Mariners traded him at the 2011 trade deadline for a handful of players. The most notable of them were Casper Wells, who was out of baseball in 2014, and prospect Charlie Furbush, who is now a reliever. Then prior to last season, the Tigers traded him to the Nationals for a return that's still leaving fans scratching their heads: lefty reliever Ian Krol, the since-dealt Robbie Ray, and the long-since-DFA'd Steve Lombardozzi. Bizarre.
If the Nationals wanted to continue the trend of underwhelming returns for Fister, I would gladly embrace it. For now though, we can only assume that the package for Fister would have to be decent, even if he's just a one-year rental. He's not as awesome as Zimmermann, but he would definitely be an intriguing option as long as the Nationals didn't ask for too much.
Gio Gonzalez
Age as of Opening Day: 29 2014 stats: 27 GS, 158 2/3 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 162 K, 9.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.3 rWAR Career stats: 180 GS, 1,089 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 1,072 K, 8.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 17.0 rWAR Current contract: $11M in 2015, $12M in 2016, $12M team option in 2017, $12M vesting option in 2018
Gio Gonzalez's career to date has been fascinating. He has yet to reach free agency or age 30, and yet he's been traded four times already. A first round pick by the White Sox in 2004, he was a player to be named later in the deal that brought Jim Thome to the South Side from Philadelphia, and a year later, the Phillies traded him back to Chicago along with Gavin Floyd in a horrible deal that gave them 11 putrid starts from Freddy Garcia. The White Sox celebrated reacquiring him by trading him again 13 months later, this time to the Athletics in a trade for Nick Swisher.
By then, Gonzalez was the 26th best prospect in the game according to Baseball America, and although he struggled in his first two big league seasons, he rewarded GM Billy Beane for being patient with him. Then in 2010, Gio broke out with a 3.23 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 200 2/3 innings. He matched his performance the next year, when he became an All-Star for the first time. Right when it seemed Gio found his home, he was traded again, this time to the Nationals with Derek Norris and Tommy Milone (among others) going to Oakland. The Nationals did sign him to a contract extension shortly afterward though, locking him up for five years and $65 million while buying out a year of free agency.
Gonzalez was tremendous for the Nats in his first season, catching the eyes of traditionalists with his league-high 21 wins and the eyes of more sabermetric-oriented fans with his league-high 2.82 FIP and 9.3 K/9. He struck out a career-high 207 batters that year while pitching to a 2.89 ERA and allowing just nine homers all year in 199 1/3 innings. Gio was named an All-Star again and finished third for the NL Cy Young Award, behind only R.A. Dickey and Clayton Kershaw. That's a hell of a way to make a debut with a new team. He hasn't been quite as flashy over his last two years, but a 3.45 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 59 starts are nothing to dismiss easily.
Will Gonzalez be as good as the other three starters in 2015? Probably not, but it's worth noting that he is the only lefty of the bunch, a factor that's always a plus in Yankee Stadium. (He's also only been on the DL once in his entire career; health is obviously a big plus.) Furthermore, while he would be the most expensive, acquiring him would be the equivalent of signing him to a two-year, $23 million contract with a team option for the third year. If that was possible on the open market, teams would sign him to that in a heartbeat. He would also probably cost the least in terms of prospect due to his longer contract, though again, he probably would not come cheap. Should he be available as well, it's worth it for Brian Cashman to propose a trade to bring Gio on board.
***
Beyond this quartet, it seems doubtful that the Nationals would trade pre-arb starter Tanner Roark (acquired previously in a now-laughable trade with the Rangers for Cristian Guzman [!]). It's even less likely that they would trade top pitching prospects Lucas Giolito or A.J. Cole. However, the Yankees would be remiss if they did not at least check to see if it's remotely possible to pry one of the above four starters from the Nationals' rotation. If they decide to not go with a super-rotation, the Yankees could really use a starter as experienced as any of the above.
New York Daily News | Bob Raissman: Yankees over-the-air games might not appear on My9 in 2015. Channel 9 seems no longer interested in paying the fees YES wants for the right to show the games.
MLB.com | Bryan Hoch:Stephen Drew provides a relatively inexpensive insurance policy in case Rob Refsnyder and/or Jose Pirela just aren't ready for a starting job in the majors.
If runs scored or prevented are worth a win, how many extra wins could the Yankees' new defense bring home?
Last year's Yankee team was somewhat inept defensively. Between highlight reel failures like the inside-the-park-homer allowed by Carlos Beltran in right field to the revenge of pastadiving Jeter, the 2014 Yankees were a squad that, on total, I am eager to forget.
So I keep looking forward to the 2015 Yankees. Their offense is going to struggle. Their pitching is hanging on a few weak ligaments and a prayer.
But the defense should be good. It's possible the defense could be very good. So, I pulled up Steamer's projections for our defense and compared them to last year's results. There are a lot of holes in this: while Steamer makes a best guess at plate appearances for each player, it doesn't try to work out playing time for the team. So to try to help you visualize that difference, I added a column second to the right to calculate the difference in plate appearances.
Working on the rule of thumb that ten runs are worth a win, this team is two defensive wins better than last year's team.
Steamer really thinks that Stephen Drew is going to show his value as a second baseman, much more so than Pirela. How much better offensively would Rob Refsnyder have to be than Drew to come out ahead? Considering that Refsnyder is widely considered a defensive work in progress, I'm not sure Refsnyder will hit enough to make the equation balance.
Could Didi Gregorius' defense really be a full win better than Derek Jeter's? Considering that I think Gregorius is going to get more than 427 PA, I'm ready to pencil that in as a win and a half better.
Brett Gardner has underscored on defensive metrics nearly every year since his injury spoiled 2012. I'm not ready to buy that he's going to be as much above average as he was below average last season.
Man, was Alfonso Soriano bad last season. Unfortunately, with Garrett Jones and Chris Young likely to take the bulk of playing time he received plus more, I don't expect as much improvement as the Yanks might otherwise look forward to.
If 40 year old Alex Rodriguez sees any time on the field, I'm gonna make angry sounds.
What else do you see? What about this's defense team excites you?
Everything is proceeding as we have foreseen. Okay, perhaps not. Pitchers and catchers report in 30 days.
It's all quiet on the baseball front right now. However, at least we're just about a month or less away from pitchers and catchers reporting. Everything is proceeding as we have foreseen. Okay, maybe not. It's proceeding though.
Comments of the Day
Someone is welcome to throw said hooded figure into the power core of a second Death Star.
I have admittedly done this, as I confuse Jordan for Ryan. Too many Zimmermanns.
Arun hits the nail right on the head here. While a trade scenario may be unlikely, there's no reason for Cashman not to inquire. I think he will, cause that's kind of his job.
GIF of the Day
Yay! Thanks Darth Mahbles
Honorable Mod Mention
It goes to Jason, for reminding us of the extra N at the end of Jordan Zimmermann's last name.
Fun Questions
Would you ever like to see a Star Wars day at Yankee Stadium, like other baseball teams do?
Have the Washington Nationals signed Max Scherzer to a one-off deal, or is this contract structure one that will be replicated by the Yankees or other teams in the coming years?
At the start of the offseason, Max Scherzer was rumoured to pursue a contract with over $200 million guaranteed, and that's exactly what the Washington Nationals gave him. Seven years and $210 million, the second-largest pitching contract ever and only a hair behind Clayton Kershaw's record extension. If Scherzer, and agent Scott Boras, set out to break new ground, this contract delivers. Max Scherzer is now the proud - and wealthy - owner of the largest free agent pitcher contract in history.
Of course, this deal is unique not just due to the dollar figures involved. Half the money is stretched out past the seven-year commitment for Scherzer to serve as a Washington National. The final $105 million will be paid out over 2022-2028 when Scherzer could be retired or even pitching for another team. In return for these record deferments, the Nationals need only pay $15 million a year for the pitcher who racked up the third most wins above replacement over the last three seasons. On the face of it, it's flexibility for the next seven seasons as the Nationals go all out for championships, but it's flexibility they will literally pay for in the future.
Perhaps that is the primary motivation here, for a franchise with an 89-year old owner that has never won a World Series, and while in Washington never a postseason series. Barring further moves the Nationals now possess the highest projected WAR both in their position player depth and pitching staff thus of course overall as well. Their World Series odds have been cut to 6-to-1, making them the favourites. Predicting baseball is a fool's errand, even during the postseason, and certainly in January. However, the Nationals have put themselves in the strongest position heading into spring training.
The extra financial flexibility from reducing Scherzer's salary in 2015 might be the difference in being able to keep the rest of their rotation intact. Lowering it for the duration as opposed to a back-loaded deal might give Washington the ability to re-sign some of their impending free agents. Windows to win in MLB are hard to come by, as us Yankee fans have seen first-hand recently. The Nationals may well be seizing their chance here, and other teams in the future may build on strong cores by signing deals with deferred money instead-of or in-addition-to the already popular back-loading structure.
Washington has been rumoured to be looking to trade from its excellent starting pitching depth, both for immediate financial relief and to restock on prospects for a player they might otherwise lose to free agency. This doesn't immediately fit a go-for-it-now mold, but then despite the headline figures here the Scherzer deal is not a financially irresponsible one. Relatively speaking, of course. Dave Cameron converts the long-term dollars into present-day figures for comparison, applying a reasonable 7% discounting rate. to match the expected return from the stock market. This deal effectively translates into a flat-figure of 7 years and $170 million, a lot of money but much more in-line with his expected market. Even more striking, Cameron compares this deal to the front-loaded six-year $155 millon Jon Lester deal and finds the deals only $10 million apart in today's money even if Scherzer will receive an extra $55 million total. The Nationals have given Scherzer and Boras the headline numbers they wanted here without spending the full fare.
For luxury-tax purposes, #Nationals will be charged present-day value of salaries in each of seven years on Scherzer’s deal, per rival exec.
If the competitive financial package and long-term security is what a specific player seeks, this structure brings one additional benefit specific to luxury tax paying teams. While MLB doesn't discount for luxury tax purposes by the full 7% that might match the stock market, they do convert this $210 million to a standard seven-year deal between $182 and $189 million, per Rosenthal's numbers above. That means a reduction of between $21 and $28 million of the luxury tax overage, which we can certainly expect the Yankee front office to factor in for future deals. Not all contracts will come with dollar figures to match Scherzer's of course, but on any nine-figure deal structured this way there could be eight-figure savings just in luxury tax overages. Seeing as repeat offenders like the Yankees pay tax in the 50% bracket, these figures could easily tip the balance on a contract offer. Other tax paying teams may also look at the structure here with interest. Indeed Scott Boras and other agents may themselves propose this structure to other teams around the league.
Certainly not every free agent contract will have a total dollar figure of $210 million, and not every player might have the financial motivations that factored into Max Scherzer's decision making. Not every team will be as flexible as the Washington Nationals were here, in taking on such significant future cash obligations. After all, the impact could be far-reaching, as such a deal could complicate a potential sale a decade in the future. It potentially sets up a long-term drain on operational cash and might hamper future payroll flexibility. Think how much some of the current Yankee big contracts are affecting spending, and imagine the team paying $15 million for a player who hasn't been on the team in six seasons. This isn't a cure-all deal by any stretch, especially if it helps persuade teams to part with more money in present value than they might otherwise do. However, it is not a structure without appeal in specific cases.
The total sum of future money here truly is astounding, perhaps a perfect storm of ideal factors for such a deal. Scherzer may hold the record on $105 million total deferred money commitment longer than he holds the one for his $210 million free agent pitcher contract. Maybe longer than the contract itself. However, I personally would not be surprised to see more contracts based on deferred money in the future.
More generally, I would like to see the Yankees be willing to take a flexible line in contract negotiations. Deferred money should be on the table, as should be front-loaded contracts like the Cubs gave Lester to put more money in his pocket earlier. Indeed, any other structure that creates a happy medium between Hal Steinbrenner and top-tier free agents could help. Free agency might be all about the money, but perhaps it's better viewed as being all about the value. Understanding and accommodating the priorities of each specific free agent target with creative financial structures could allow the Yankees to better compete in the offseason market going forward.
If the simply outspending everyone strategy no longer applies with the modern front office, it's time to adapt. Improved scouting, development, extensions for players still under control will all help the New York Yankees field competitive rosters. However, free agency should continue to be a valued avenue for talent, and being flexible here could allow the Yankees to sign elite free agents at a lower total value financially. Not cheap, but perhaps cheaper. Relatively.
Hat tip to PSA member Vehemens for posting Rosenthal's tweet on luxury tax in yesterday's comments.
The Yankees are considered to be one of the frontrunners to sign top Cuban shortstop Yoan Moncada. He was recently declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, but, as a Cuban defector, he won't be eligible to officially sign with a team until the Office of Foreign Assets Control unblocks him. That small fact has not stopped the 19-year-old switch-hitter from showing himself off to interested teams, though, as he's already worked out for the Giants and now, as Baseball America reports, the Yankees as well.
While Moncada is being billed as a shortstop, he's not expected to remain at the position going forward. The Yankees, or whichever team ultimately signs him, could try him out at short to begin his professional career, but ultimately he looks to be a second baseman or third baseman at the highest level. Regardless of his future position, Moncada is considered to be such a talent that he could easily become the organization's top prospect, even with names like Aaron Judge and Luis Severino currently sitting up at the top of most lists. The Yankees have a healthy dose of Latin American talent after the signing spree they went on this past Summer, but Moncada would easily top them all as far as potential impact talent is concerned.
Baseball America has a fantastic explanation on why the Yankees will be especially motivated to sign Moncada, even after spending all the money they have over the last six months:
The Yankees already obliterated their 2014-15 international signing bonus pool with a July 2 spending spree, wrapping up 10 of the Top 30 prospects for July 2 last year. Their spending puts them in the maximum penalty range, so the Yankees are already restricted from signing pool-eligible players for more than $300,000 for the next two signing periods, beginning this year on July 2. With the Yankees already in the penalty range, there's more incentive for them to sign Moncada, since the only penalty would be the 100 percent tax on their pool overage that every team would face to sign him. Once the 2014-15 signing period ends on June 15, however, the Yankees will no longer be able to sign anyone for more than $300,000, and thus would effectively be out on Moncada, who is subject to the bonus pools.
Essentially, we're in wait-and-see mode, because it really all comes down to when he will be unblocked by OFAC. If it's before the signing period ends, the Yankees are going to be all in and he'll be wearing pinstripes in no time, but if there's a long hold up and he isn't permitted to sign with an MLB team until after the June 15 cutoff date then the organization is out of luck.
The Yankees have been very literal in describing some of their '14-'15 offseason strategies. Maybe we should start listening to them more often.
Running a baseball team feels in a lot of ways like one big shell game. Uses of deception and sleight of hand are all par for the course as executives, agents and even players try to leverage uncertainty and doubt into better deals for their clubs, clients or themselves. Rumors are fed to reporters chomping at the bit to report anything of even the most remote interest, creating a cloudy picture of what these teams are actually planning on doing. For a long time trying to get the picture of what the New York Yankees were planning was to just pick out the biggest free agents with the largest expected price tag and label them as likely future Yankees. Even with the Yankees' comparative frugality these days, Max Scherzer and Hanley Ramirez (both recipients of $100+ million contracts) were predicted to go to the Yankees by MLB Trade Rumors.
Of course, that never happened and the only group that seemed 100 percent convinced that they would not be going after Scherzer was the Yankees themselves. Any time it was floated to "watch out" for the Yankees eventual involvement, nothing ever came of it. Randy Levine came out pretty early and said that the numbers being floated by agent Scott Boras were going to be too rich for the Yankees and that turned out to be the case. You wonder if Boras even has the Yankees on speed dial anymore since he seems more than capable of wringing a record-setting deals out of teams without the benefit of a whale like the Yankees being in the mix. Brian Cashman has been similarly honest when discussing the pursuit of the team's own free agents, like David Robertson and Brandon McCarthy, revealing that the team wanted the players back but at prices the team would dictate. Sure enough, Robertson never even received an actual offer from the team and they never tried to match the four year offer that McCarthy inked with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chase Headley even had to take less money to stay with the team.
So is this all part of some sort of strategy by the Yankees' front office? A policy of total transparency when it comes to these negotiations? It all seems kind of peculiar for a team that employs a general manager who we jokingly refer to as a "ninja" to do things in this manner, but it seems like the knockdown, drag out negotiations that were a staple of George Steinbrenner's regime are a thing of the past. They're going to seemingly blow the doors off of players like Jacoby Ellsbury but draw a hardline for players they might not want as much. And they're going to be very rigid.
I'm not sure if any of this is good or bad, and the pursuit of Cuban superstar Yoan Moncada might give us even more insight into this newer, more forthright Yankees brain trust. Since the Yankees are, in fact, rumored to be involved in the race for Moncada, It seems like it will be a bidding war between teams with unconscionable amounts of capital at their disposal. They might want to hold their cards a little closer in this case.
This is probably not a post a fan of the Red Sox/Orioles/Mets/anyone else will like.
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting relatively soon, but it still seems so far away. And with all the major free agents, apart from James Shields, signed for the most part, we are in the bleak mid-winter of the baseball off-season. So to pass the time, I asked the PSA staff to dig out some happy memories for this week's Pinstripe Q&A.
Q: January 23th is National Pie Day. In honor of the Yankees' old walk-off tradition, what was your favorite Yankees' walk-off win?
Greg
I mean, the obvious answer is definitely the '03 ALCS Aaron Boone dinger that sent the Yankees to the World Series and crushed the hopes and dreams of Red Sox fans everywhere. That's pretty hard to top. However, I do love me some Brett Gardner walk-off dingers as well.
In retrospect though, the Game 1 ALCS walk-off that Bernie Williams hit will always hold a special place in my heart. Favorite Yankee growing up, and I was just so excited that the Yankees were finally here and they were doing it.
Jason
This last season? Derek Jeter, obvs. All-time? Luis. Castillo.
Tanya
The best Yankees walk-off win of all time is without a doubt Aaron Boone. I know it, you know it, and we all know it. Every walk-off win is fun, but that one was far and away the best.
Harlan
There are a lot of contenders, but really only one right answer to this question, and it's the night that Aaron went Ka-Boone. I'm guessing I'm not the only one going in this direction, so I'll share my personal experience from 2003 ALCS Game 7.
I was sitting in the very last row of the right field bleachers, which was the only area of the old stadium that wasn't infested with Boston fans. It was the most electric and also strangest crowd I've ever been a part of. We were all psyched for the most important Yankees-Red Sox showdown since '78, but this was a day after the Staten Island ferry crash that killed 11 people, and no one was completely sure yet that it wasn't another terrorism thing, so there was also a sort of muted tone. The night was highlighted by a lot of nail-biting, screaming in the faces of and hugging total strangers, standing and stomping on benches that probably shouldn't have been holding that much weight and a crowd-surfing blow-up doll in an authentic Pedro Martinez jersey that kept making the rounds and re-appearing after being confiscated by the cops. The craziest moment was actually when Posada tied it in the eighth. From that point on, it felt like a question of when, not if the Yankees would win.
I've been at a lot of these classic Yankee games over the past 20 years - the Jeffrey Maier/Bernie goes boom game, the Mr. November game, Tex's '09 walk-off, Jeter's farewell walk-off last year - but I doubt anything will ever top 10/16/03.
Andrew
In the past year, I really enjoyed the Carlos Beltran walk-off dinger because I was there and the stadium went from "Well, we're totally losing to the Orioles" to "Uhhh okay, I guess we won! Yeah!" in a matter of moments. Similarly, the Chris Young walk-off homer against the Rays was hilarious from an utter shock perspective.
All-time, the easy answers are Aaron Boone, Chris Chambliss, and Derek Jeter's playoff walk-offs. Just to mix it up a bit though, I'll say my personal favorite walk-off has to be Raul Ibanez crushing hearts in Baltimore in 2012. (Sorry to my Oriole fan friends.) That was just so ludicrous. How did that even happen again? He doesn't start but pinch-hits for A-Rod of all people and hits the game-tying homer in the ninth, then crushes his first homer against a lefty all year long in extra innings with a very tough LOOGY in Brian Matusz on the mound? Surreal, yet amazing.
John
I totally didn't get teary thinking about Jeter's walk-off finale. Or about 2001. Or Raul Ibanez in 2012. Or Bernie Williams in 1996 to win the Jeff Maier Game.
Let's go with a Bernie Williams homer though, since he's by far the most underrated Yankees of my lifetime, and the forgotten member of the Fab Five.
In 1999, the Yankees were defending World Series champs, but the team clearly wasn't the dominant machine it had been in '98. The Red Sox were a team on the rise. There were so many parallels: both teams sported 27-year-old switch hitting catchers, both teams had an All-Star shortstop, both teams had a defense-first third baseman, both teams got good but not great production from first base and right field, both teams had closers who boasted really only one pitch (a knuckleball on one side, a cutter on the other).
But the teams were different on the pitcher's mound and in center field. Of course, Bernie had nearly signed with the Red Sox the previous offseason, with the Yankees ready to sign Albert Belle to slug and play left field. Thankfully, they let the Orioles make the Belle mistake and kept their center fielder. The Red Sox didn't have much of a backup plan, but they made it to the ALCS despite a .240/.311/.309(!) contribution from Darren Lewis.
While the Yankees' rotation was deep, the Red Sox had future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez at the height of his power. This is before "Who's your daddy," when he was just Pedro freakin' Martinez best pitcher on the planet. If the Red Sox could win Pedro's starts in Game 3 and a potential Game 7, they had a good chance to bounce the Yankees from the playoffs.
So when the Yankees tied the score off Derek Lowe in the bottom of the seventh, it gave the game as much of a "must win" feel of any playoff game I've ever seen. Lowe settled down though, and the eighth and ninth innings came and went. On the Yankee side, Joe Torre managed the game right: El Duque pitched eight innings, and then Torre went straight to Mariano Rivera for the top of the ninth and the top of the tenth. The Red Sox brought in Rod Beck (no relation) to pitch the bottom of the tenth, and Bernie Williams was having none of that.
Matt F.
Just for sheer dumbness, I'm gonna give a tip of the cap to the Yankees beating the Reds this year on a Brian McCann infield bloop single.
Yes, the Luis Castillo one was funnier in retrospect, but this one was forgotten-ly funny.
But, yeah, the Aaron Boone was has to win. Here's my personal story on that one. I was watching that game with my mom. I was up later than any 12-year old with school the next day probably should, but it was Yankees-Red Sox, it was fine. After coming back from commercial, FOX showed Boone warming up at third as every broadcast crew does when a change in the field is made. When he popped up on screen, I said to my mom: "I have a weird feeling he's gonna get the winning hit." (My mom will vouch for the validity of this story.) Unlike many others I've made, that prediction worked out pretty well.
Those are our answers and now it's your turn. What's your favorite walk-off win and why? Maybe you correctly predicted one too?
The jokes are inevitable, but maybe this isn't such a bad idea for Rodriguez.
Alex Rodriguez has enlisted some powerful help as he continues his trek toward returning to the New York Yankees' lineup.
Rodriguez is training with San Francisco Giants legend and all-time MLB home run leader Barry Bonds, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The controversial duo has been working together at Future Prospects, an instructional facility in San Rafael, Calif. The situation will undoubtedly spawn jokes all over the Internet and beyond, but let's take a second to review the impact Bonds has had on some of his recent pupils.
Dexter Fowler, who was traded to the Chicago Cubs earlier on Tuesday, posted the second-best on-base percentage of his career in 2014, his first season away from Coors Field. Another year like that could result in a nice payday for Fowler, whom Bonds has tutored for the past two offseasons.
Michael Morse, Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Crawford -- all key parts of the Giants' championship run last season -- also worked with Bonds in spring training a year ago, Shea notes. Despite all of the negative attention that has swirled around Bonds for the last decade-plus, perhaps he isn't the worst option as a workout partner for major leaguers.
Rodriguez, 39, sat out all of season after being suspended for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. In 2013, Rodriguez hit .244/.348/.423, good for an OPS+ of 113, in 181 plate appearances. The above-average offensive performance would have ranked first among all Yankees right-handed hitters with that many plate appearances or more in 2014.
NJ.com | Maria Guardado: While the Yankees have been monitoring Johan Santana's progress as he strives to return to the majors, they'll be facing some competition if they want to add him to their team.
It's About the Money | Brad Vietrogoski: Before revealing the top 30 prospects in the Yankees system, take a look at the five that just missed the cut, including Dermis Garcia and Nick Rumbelow.
LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: What if some of the things that could go wrong in Spring Training do go wrong? Taking a look at how the Yankees can respond if some of the worst-case scenarios come to pass.
Considering the Yankees were unwilling to spend big this year, so it's unlikely they would spend big next year, too.
Just recently the Washington Nationals decided to break the bank for Max Scherzer, signing the ace to a record $210 million contract, the largest pitching contract ever (Sure, the Nationals will save money by deferring payments, but it's still a decent chunk of change). The Yankees, to some peoples' surprise, sat on the sidelines. I mean, they didn't completely sit on the sidelines this offseason as they signed Andrew Miller and Chase Headley which amounted to nearly $100 million in total salary, but it was no 2013 or 2008 offseason, that's for sure.
The plan this offseason has not been like previous Yankees' offseasons. It makes sense: with new television revenue giving what used to be smaller market teams significant amounts of revenue, the Yankees certainly aren't getting discounts on the free agent market. And with more teams locking up their youthful talent well into what would have been free agency, free agents aren't as common as they once were. It's no surprise that players like James Shields are free agents at 33, and not at 30. This new landscape, of course, should breed new tactics.
Because the Yankees can't just outspend everyone, they need to make due with the talent they have, or try to create new talent. They've done their best impression of chain-trading a paperclip for a house by acquiring Chase Headley for Rafael De Paula and Yangervis Solarte, and effectively acquiring Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and a half-season of Martin Prado for Peter O'Brien. If they want to be successful, they'll need to continue to wheel-and-deal in that fashion.
The above chart is the Yankees' payroll obligations through 2017, courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts. The team currently has $208.7 million in payroll going into 2015, which reduces to $180.8 million in 2016 and just $120.6 million in 2017. Of course, the obligations do not include arbitration amounts or even estimates for 2016 and 2017, so it's fair to say that $180.8 million is well below what the actual payroll will be.
Barring some large shedding of salary, it is likely that payroll in 2016 will be very similar to this season, if not even higher considering inflating arbitration costs for the younger players. If the Brian Cashman and company are intent on saving their beans and focusing on building a younger and more robust roster, I doubt they change their mind in the next year.
But, these are the Yankees, of course. Ownership could all of the sudden decide that James Shields is worth the money, but it seems unlikely at this point. After acquiring Didi Gregorius, Nathan Eovaldi, and a legion of young relievers, the Yankees have made it obvious that their old strategy of "buy all of the good players" just doesn't work as it once did. I'm sure they would love to splurge this year or even next, but $210-215 million is indeed the ceiling to the Yankees' budget, then it appears they will have to make it work as is.
This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Brian Cashman's contract is through 2017, which I think is no surprise. If the long-time GM can make the team a competitor through minimal but smart free agent signings and a flurry of trades and minor league transactions (and hopefully some help from the farm), then I would imagine the team looks to keep him around. Cashman has had a pretty good track record with trades and minor league signings, but he'll have to make the scrap heap his lifeblood this season and next. There will be pains along the way, I'm sure, but a younger and more sustainable roster only yields exponential benefits when the team is relatively free(er) of large financial commitments come 2017 and 2018.
How would the fictional players in Major League measure up fantasy wise?
We all know the lines from Major League. We don't have to repeat them. It is a classic movie that has a lot of flaws (seriously, this is a whole other column waiting to happen), but is one of the most memorable baseball films of all time.
But, since this is a fantasy sports site (as I have been reminded numerous of times), let's look at how those 1989 Cleveland Indians would have been viewed by the fantasy baseball community.
The Go-To Man
This has to be Willie Mays Hayes, right? It seemed like every rally or montage of the Indians scoring runs involved him somehow. Let's not forget the stolen bases. How many gloves were on his wall by the end of the season? Too many to count, for me at least. I'm guessing his on-base percentage was out of this world and all of the SB's would have led to a monster year. Now, if he could just work on his power! (cue Omar Epps)
The Risk
Ricky Vaughn would have driven fantasy owners out of their mind. Between tantrums that only Jonathan Papelbon can throw and multiple consecutive walks that would have Carlos Marmol blushing, he would be ultimately murdered someone after giving up another home run to the White Sox. I suppose he did have a lot of saves, though we really don't see them. (CORRECTION: As reader Matthew Dewöskin points out, Ricky was actually a starter in the movie. I am not sure how I forgot this.)
Only If He Is Family
You have to know that Roger Dorn made all of his family members take him in the first round, right? I wouldn't expect anything else out of the guy. If my memory serves me correct, we only see him get one hit in the entire movie. No wonder Mrs. Dorn went to Ricky for some club.
Late Rounder When You Are Bored With the Draft
Well, Jake Taylor really put up numbers in the Mexican League. That MIGHT transition to the American League if he works at it. His WAR, by the way, would be a negative 15.3. Also, no way he beats out a bunt.
OKAY, you got me. I have to air out some grievances with the movie before I go insane. They are as follows:
1. How does Jake not get pulled over while driving a bullpen cart through downtown Cleveland? Also, what is the chance that he actually KNOWS the name of the cop he asks to use it?
2. So, Lynn's boyfriend at the start of the movie is a rich businessman who has a penthouse condo somewhere in Cleveland. Soooooo, Jake just enters a building and has direct access to the condo without knowing any code or being buzzed in? Did Lynn's boyfriend just want to be robbed? Cleveland is a horrible place. I don't want my door just being open.
3. WHY AND HOW IS EDDIE PITCHING SO LONG IN THE DECISIVE GAME? Is Lou Brown asleep? You see him struggling, correct? Pretty sure Dusty Baker watched this movie and thought, "That is EXACTLY how I am going to use my pitchers!" Speaking of Eddie...
Only If You Are Desperate
Eddie Harris is played by Chelcie Ross, better known as George, the old coach of Hickory High, in Hoosiers. I know people like to give Tim Robbins grief for his pitching motion in Bull Durham, but was Eddie even somewhat better? Also, Ross was 47 when the movie was filmed. Lou, however, decided to stick with him for the big game. Great coaching, Lou.
People Would Have Overreached
Pedro Cerrano, meet Chris Davis. You guys would have a lot in common. Fantasy players would have been raving about him all preseason and then realized he, you know, wasn't that good. Sure, you would get the home runs, but three days out of the week you would look up and see a 0-4 box score with three strikeouts. This would cause many fantasy players to swear off voodoo.
You Would Draft Him, But You Would Hate Yourself for Doing It
Clu Haywood, him of Yankees and father-son day lore, would probably make fantasy players feel something special in their pants. He would be the Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera of 1989, except the fact he is bit of a jerk. Fantasy players worldwide would say, "Well, the guy might be a scumbag and probably has cheated, but he is my scumbag and I will defend him to the death."
Brett Gardner hit a lot of home runs in 2014. He not only managed to reach double digits for the first time, but actually doubled his previous career-high of eight by the end of the year. He might not be considered much of a traditional power hitter, but Gardner has some pop. Let's celebrate the barrage of power he showed by taking a look at his most important dingers of the year.
Going by Win Probability Added, the metric that determines how a play added or subtracted from a team's chances of winning, Brett Gardner's most important home run was his May grand slam against the Mets. Not only was it awesome because it was a grand slam, but at the time, the Yankees were losing in the second inning. Gardner came up big against Bartolo Colon, but there was plenty of game left and unfortunately Alfredo Aceves, Matt Thornton and Preston Claiborne managed to surrender five runs in three innings to bury the Yankees.
2. Off the Pole vs. Blue Jays: 6/17 - 331 feet | .204 WPA
Gardner hit this beautiful dinger off the right field foul pole to give the Yankees the lead in the early goings of the game. The Blue Jays had managed to score off Masahiro Tanaka with a leadoff home run from Jose Reyes, but the Yankee ace held off Toronto for the rest of his outing. This time they ended up holding the score in their favor and the Yankees won with Gardner's home run being the difference maker.
3. Late-Night Clutch vs. Red Sox: 8/03 - 420 feet | .169 WPA
The Yankees were down against the Red Sox going into the sixth inning, but Gardner came up big again by hitting his furthest home run of the season. Not only was it hit far, but it might have been one of the more well-timed ones of the year as it delivered New York the lead, and eventually victory.
4. #15,000 vs. Blue Jays: 9/21 - 355 feet | .151 WPA
Not only did Brett Gardner hit the first home run of the Yankees season, but six month later, with his last home run, he had the honor of smashing the franchise's 15,000th homer of all time. That's a pretty huge milestone, but definitely something you'd expect from a team nicknamed the Bronx Bombers. It was also pretty important to the 2014 Yankees since it gave them the lead for the rest of the afternoon.
5. Domination of Darvish vs. Rangers: 7/23 - 371 feet | .126 WPA
One of the more amusing story lines of the 2014 season was Brett Gardner's apparent utter domination of Yu Darvish at the plate. He managed to hit three dingers off the Rangers ace over the span of a week and it all culminated in Darvish hilariously blaming Gardner's parents for having him in the first place. This specific at-bat gave the Yankees the lead for the rest of the game and you can see that Darvish knew what was coming immediately.
Those were some impressive Gardner dingers, but that's not all of them. While some might not have had as profound of an effect on the game as the ones above, they still looked pretty cool.
He hit two second-deck shots at Yankee Stadium:
7/02 - 384 feet | .104 WPA
6/05 - 377 feet | .121 WPA
He also hit four home runs to lead off a game this year, this one just happened to tie his furthest home run of the season.
7/29 - 420 feet | .102 WPA
Gardner ended up with the third-most home runs on the team, though that might not be much of a good thing, especially when Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira could only manage 23 and 22, respectively. Still, in a year filled with disappointments and under-performers, Brett Gardner was a nice highlight reel for a power-sapped Yankees team. Can he do it again in 2015?
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