Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball have reached an agreement on a new posting system that would limit the maximum bid to $20 million and allow multiple teams to negotiate with the player. This change will give more teams a chance to bid and give the posted player more options as a virtual free agent. The Japanese team would, however, miss out on millions of dollars they could have gotten under the old system.
This has led to the idea that the Golden Eagles will not post Masahiro Tanaka because it might not be financially worth it for them to lose their best pitcher. After discussing the matter internally, the Eagles have decided that if Tanaka wants to be posted, the team will honor is wishes. This would be good news for the Yankees, because even though increased competition will make Tanaka more expensive, they still need pitching.
As details begin to come out about the new system, it turns out that the Japanese team will now be able to name their price, as long as it meets or falls under the $20 million mark. Any team that meets the team's fee would then be able to negotiate with the player. Tanaka, or someone as high profiled as he, would obviously be set at $20 million, but less certain players could fall to a lower fee. The Japanese team would still set a reasonable amount of money for the player they post because otherwise no one will bid or agree to a contract, leaving them with nothing.
Seattle isn't done making moves after signing Robinson Cano to a 10-year contract, and the Mariners' top target is pitcher David Price.
The Seattle Mariners are looking at more big names on the free agent and trade markets after signing Robinson Cano to a 10-year contract, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman reports that, while they are interested in adding a "big-time" outfielder, their "top priority" is prying starting pitcher David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Mariners may also be willing to deal some of their promising young players as part of a win-now strategy, reports Heyman. Heading that list is second baseman Nick Franklin, who was displaced by Cano. Heyman claims that Franklin is "likely to go."
If the Mariners choose to cash in some of those trade assets, then Heyman suggests that they might have interest in Dodgers outfielders Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier. Alternatively, they also may target free agents Nelson Cruz or Shin-Soo Choo. However, their sights are set on Price, who, if paired with Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, would give Seattle one of the most formidable starting rotations in baseball. The cost for Price is expected to be high, so the Mariners would likely have to part with a lot in order to land him.
The Nationals have dealt the top two lefties from their 2013 bullpen this winter -- Fernando Abad was traded to the Oakland Athletics in November, and youngster Ian Krol was part of the package that went to Detroit for starter Doug Fister. O'Flaherty could be a relatively cheap option, given that he is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in May and won't be ready for the beginning of the 2014 season. The southpaw, who turns 29 in February, spent the last five seasons with the Atlanta Braves. While with the Braves, he built a reputation as a premier left-handed set-up man. In 295 appearances for the team, he posted a 1.99 ERA and allowed only 11 home runs in 249⅓ innings, highlighted by a 0.98 ERA in 2011. Rosenthal reports that O'Flaherty is also being pursued by the Dodgers and Phillies.
Starting pitcher Jerome Williams is in talks with six different teams, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Cotillo reports that four of the six teams are in the American League, and that Williams is expected to make a decision by Tuesday. The right-hander pitched for the Los Angeles Angels in 2013 and made 37 appearances, 25 of which were starts. His overall ERA was 4.57, but that mark jumped to 5.06 in games which Williams started. The 32-year-old Williams is specifically interested in signing with a team which will use him as a starter, according to Cotillo.
Meanwhile, relief pitcher Joel Hanrahan is also receiving interest from teams, according to Buster Olney of ESPN. Hanrahan underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2012 and returned to make nine appearances for the Boston Red Sox at the end of the 2013 season. Those post-injury outings did not go well, adding up to 7⅓ innings, eight runs (9.82 ERA), six walks and four home runs. Those numbers are unlikely to scare anyone off, given the fact that pitchers often need some time to regain their old forms after returning from Tommy John procedures. Hanrahan has recorded 100 saves in his seven-year career, mostly for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Free agent outfielder Michael Morse is being pursued by the Giants, Rockies, Marlins and Rangers, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The outfielder had a poor season for the Mariners and Orioles in 2013, batting only .215/.270/.381 with 13 home runs, but Sherman points out that Morse had surgery in October for a problem with his wrist which had reportedly hampered him. Morse, who will be 32 in March, hit 64 home runs combined from 2010 through 2012 and could be a cheap source of right-handed power.
Outfielder Sam Fuld has also received interest, both from major league teams and a team in Japan's NPB, according to Rosenthal. Fuld was non-tendered by the Rays after batting .199/.270/.267 with two home runs and eight stolen bases in 2013. The 32-year-old profiles best as a backup outfielder who can pinch-run and come in as a late-inning defensive replacement.
"Big Pelf" pitched for the Minnesota Twins in 2013, making 29 starts and posting a 5.19 ERA. The Yankees could use Pelfrey as an innings-eater in their currently-thin rotation; the right-hander tossed at least 184 innings for four straight seasons from 2008-2011, and surpassed the 200-inning mark twice in that time. New York's rotation currently consists of C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, with a host of youngsters led by David Phelps and Michael Pineda vying for any spots which aren't filled externally this winter.
Other assorted notes
-- Delmon Young is trying to add first base to his resume in order to increase his defensive versatility, according to Rosenthal. Young split the 2013 season between the Phillies and the Rays, batting .260/.307/.407 with 11 home runs in 103 games. However, his poor outfield defense may limit his value in the eyes of many teams, prompting him to try out at a new position.
-- New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson claims to be working with an $85 million budget for 2014, according to Jorge Castillo of The Star-Ledger. The Mets currently have around $50 million committed to four players: David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Chris Young, and Jonathon Niese. They owe $3 million to former outfielder Jason Bay from his since-expired contract with the team. They will also spend approximately $20.6 million on their seven arbitration-eligible players, based on the estimates at MLB Trade Rumors. That leaves only about $15 million to fill the final 14 spots on the roster, most of which will go to pre-arbitration players on six-figure contracts. Alderson may spend some of that money to bring in a new starting pitcher, reports Adam Rubin of ESPN.
-- The Baltimore Orioles still need a DH, a closer, and possibly a starting pitcher, but they haven't ruled out Cruz or Choo for their left field vacancy, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. They are also in on Raul Ibanez and Andre Ethier, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN. They lost their 2013 left fielder, Nate McLouth, to free agency.
-- Choo is expected to get a contract somewhere in between the seven-year, $126 million deal signed by Jayson Werth prior to the 2011 season and the seven-year, $153 million pact inked by Jacoby Ellsbury on Saturday, according to Sherman.
-- Japan's NBP has agreed to the key aspects of a new posting system, specifically the $20 million maximum bid, reports Sherman. However, the two sides are still working out the smaller details of the agreement.
-- One topic of discussion at the upcoming Winter Meeting will the elimination of home plate collisions, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.
Two heated rivalry games against the Red Sox: Was Aaron Boone's walk off home run in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS more memorable than Derek Jeter diving into the stands to save a game in 2004? Read and vote in the poll!
The Pinstripe Alley Top Moments Tournament continues with the 2000-present bracket. Vote for the moment that deserves to move on in the poll below.
#1: Aaron Boone's Game 7 home run
Game 7. Yankees-Red Sox. If you're a fan of the greatest rivalry in sports, then 2003 was as good as you can hope for. The Yankees had won 101 games under Joe Torre behind one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball. The starting rotation led by Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and David Wells led the major leagues in innings pitched, FIP, and fWAR while their closer, some guy named Mariano Rivera, had a pretty decent season too with 40 saves and a minuscule 1.66 ERA.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, had hired a new General Manager in Theo Epstein, and signed little-known free agent backup DH David Ortiz a few weeks before the start of spring training. Ortiz went from starting the season as a part-time player to hitting 31 home runs and finishing fifth in the MVP voting, much to the delight of Red Sox fans.
The Yankees and Red Sox were neck-and-neck throughout much the 2003 season before the Yankees pulled away with the division title in the final two months. The ALCS was about as heated as this rivalry has been in a long time, from both the fans and the players. This was highlighted during Game 3 in Boston, where tempers flared and the benches cleared. Going into Game 7, the Yankees and Red Sox were dead even in head-to-head matchups throughout the season.
The game itself did not start off well for Yankee fans. Pedro Martinez was lights out early on while Yankees starter Roger Clemens struggled to get into rhythm. The Yankees were already down 4-0 when Mussina relieved Clemens with two on and nobody out in the top of the fourth to get out of the jam. Jason Giambi was able to get to Pedro with a pair of solo home runs in the fifth and seventh innings to cut it to 4-2, but Ortiz responded with a home run in the eighth to extend the lead back to three. After Nick Johnson popped out to lead off the bottom of the eighth, the Red Sox were five outs away from the World Series. That's when the magic began.
Derek Jeter doubled to right and scored on a single by Bernie Williams to cut it to 5-3, prompting Boston manager Grady Little to go out to the mound, presumably to bring in a lefty to face Hideki Matsui. Instead, he left Pedro in the game, and two doubles later from Matsui and Jorge Posada, the game was tied at five. Little's decision to leave Pedro in the game was a big talking point for Red Sox fans in a classic second-guess situation.
The game went into extras, as Rivera came on in relief as the game remained tied through the ninth and tenth innings. The Yankees were running out of time after Rivera pitched his third inning of relief. Nobody knew if Rivera could pitch any more, and Jose Contreras was going to be the next guy out of the bullpen. Thankfully, we never had to see that happen, as with Tim Wakefield on the mound, Aaron Boone came to the plate to lead off the bottom of the 11th.
Boone didn't even start the game for the Yankees. He was sat down for Game 7 in favor of Enrique Wilson, who had a history of success against Pedro. Boone entered earlier as a pinch-runner before taking over at third base, and was getting his first at bat of the game. He connected on Wakefield's first pitch of the inning, homering over the left field wall and sending the Yankees to the World Series, breaking the hearts of plenty of Red Sox fans in the process. In a special moment, his brother Bret Boone was in the booth with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver as he hit one of the biggest home runs in Yankees history.
#8 Derek Jeter dives into the stands
Derek Jeter has been the Yankees' shortstop for a long time. Over that time, he's become the Yankees' captain and face of the franchise to go along with his five championships, which is now the most among all active players. When I think about the first thing that comes to mind about Jeter as a baseball player, it's that he will do whatever it takes to win on any given night. The game against the Red Sox on July 1, 2004 exemplifies that perfectly.
The Red Sox had an edge coming into the game, with Pedro facing rookie Brad Halsey (remember him?). You can't predict baseball though; Halsey matched Pedro inning for inning throughout the early parts of the game, and after a pair of home runs from Tony Clark and Posada the Yankees actually had a 3-0 lead going into the sixth. The Red Sox came back on a two-run homer by Manny Ramirez in the sixth and a bases loaded groundout by Pokey Reese in the seventh to tie the game at three. That was the last anyone scored for a while.
The Yankees had plenty of opportunities to win this game before Jeter's play in the 12th inning. In the bottom of the ninth, a single by Matsui and a double by Posada put runners on second and third with one out. Clark was intentionally walked to load the bases, but pinch-hitter Ruben Sierra struck out and Kenny Lofton grounded out to end the inning. In the bottom of the tenth, Alex Rodriguez doubled to left and then stole third to put the winning run on third with two outs, but Bernie Williams lined out. Meanwhile, Rivera pitched two scoreless innings before handing it off to Tanyon Sturtze in the top of the 12th.
Following a walk, a single and a stolen base, the Red Sox found themselves with runners on second and third and two outs, and an opportunity to score for the first time since the seventh inning. Trot Nixon was sent up to pinch-hit. After a long at bat, Nixon popped one up behind third base into shallow left field.
A-Rod had no shot at it, and it was out of reach for Sierra in left. Derek Jeter, running at a full sprint just ten feet from the stands, came out of nowhere to make a lunging over-the-shoulder catch in fair territory to save two runs. He was unable to stop his momentum, and he flew into the stands. He came out of it bloody, with a swollen cheek and a bruised shoulder. He was given a standing ovation as he slowly walked off the field.
The rest of the game was still eventful, even after Jeter's catch. After blowing another chance to win in the bottom of the 12th, the Red Sox finally scored on Manny's second home run of the night, as he launched one over the left-center field wall to make it 4-3. In the bottom of the 13th, a two-out rally capped off by an RBI double from Miguel Cairo and a pinch-hit walk off single by John Flaherty completed the sweep of the Red Sox.
As a baseball game, this one featured just about everything. Between the two teams, only one relief pitcher wasn't used. The Yankees used every player on their bench, switched positions around on an almost inning-by-inning basis, and even used A-Rod at short and Gary Sheffield at third base after Jeter had to leave the game. After the second comeback and the walk-off by Flaherty of all people, I didn't need Michael Kay to screech at an uncomfortably high volume to know that it was one of the greatest games I've ever seen.
However, the thing that people remember most from it is the play that Derek Jeter made to end the 12th inning. It signifies the player that Jeter's been his whole life. Nobody would have blamed Jeter if he slowed up and the ball dropped in. Maybe some left fielders with a little more range than Sierra could have caught it. But Jeter didn't let that happen, because letting the ball drop would've meant losing the game. So instead, he sacrificed his body to make the catch. To this day, the dive into the stands has been perhaps the signature play of Jeter's career.
This is the FOURTHHalos Heaven offseason Top Angels list we have compiled. We did a Top 100 Angels list after the 2005 season (LINK) and another one after the 2008 season (LINK) and we published a book after 2010, the fiftieth season of Angels baseball (LINK) of the Top 50 Angels of the first 50 seasons. With analytics being radically more sophisticated, look for this offseason's list to measure advanced metrics and traditional stats balanced with where a player rests in the hearts of every Halo Fan.
#54 RICH REICHARDT, OF
We ranked Rick #62 in our Top 100 Angels posted after the 2005 season (LINK) and #51 all time in our countdown posted after the 2008 season. We ranked him #38 in our BOOK (AMAZON LINK) Top 50 Angels - The 50 Greatest Angels From the First 50 Seasons, published after the 2010 season.
The reason there is a major league draft is because of stud prospects like Rick Reichardt. Imagine open season on every high school and college ball player. That is how it once was. A bidding war broke out for Reichardt. He had played in the Rose Bowl for the University of Wisconsin in 1963. The Yankees offered him a quarter-million dollars. The Angels offered him less, $225K to be exact ($3.1 Million in today's money), but he signed with them as he saw the likelihood of making the bigs quicker with the young expansion team.
Money outlays like this inspired the lords of baseball to organize the amateur draft almost exactly as it exists today.
He signed on June 24, 1964 and made his major league debut with the team on September 1 of that year. He had cups of coffee in 64 and 65 and a longer stretch in 1966 but stuck with the club for good in 1967. He was the starting Left Fielder in 411 games in 1967, 68 and 69. While America was in turmoil, Left Field in Anaheim was stable. Advanced stats developed decades after his retirement show him to be one of the American League's top left fielders by a variety of measurements. His RangeFactor/9 led the AL in 1967 and his 6 Total Zone Runs in 1968 were second in the league. WAR is not as generous, rating him just below defensive replacement throughout his years as an Angel.
His best season as an Angels as 1968 where his 21 HR and 20 Doubles were impressive in the depths of the deadball era. His .749 On Base Percentage + Slugging translated into an OPS+ of 131. His 4.7 WAR that year is still one of the single season fifty best performances in club history.
Reichardt was traded to the Washington Senators early in the 1970 season for infielder Ken McMullen. He finished his Angels career with 10.9 Wins Above Replacement (30th best by a position player in club history) in 2,192 Plate Appearances. His 68 HR as an Angel ranks 25th in club history. His OPS+ of 118 as a Halo is tied with Don Baylor for fifteenth best by an Angel all time.
The Yankees' 40-man roster is currently filled after the signing of Jacoby Ellsbury was made official. Unfortunately, they still have plenty of work to do. They need to make room for Carlos Beltran. They also still need to sign someone to play second base, third base, and probably add another starting pitcher. And that's if Alex Rodriguez doesn't end up suspended. To bring in these players, there will need to be a few cuts.
As much as the Yankees like David Huff because he's left-handed, the pitcher has had a lousy career, so it's possible he makes it through waivers. If not, they won't really miss much, since they already have Vidal Nuno and Cesar Cabral as better options out of the bullpen.
Though they just traded for Dean Anna, he's a career minor leaguer and even if they have finally given up on Eduardo Nunez, they are likely to keep him in Triple-A just in case. Kelly Johnson, Brendan Ryan, and whoever they get to play the corner infield positions, will likely be enough help to sacrifice Anna to the waiver wire.
The Yankees really need to get rid of both Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki. While Ichiro could be a decent backup outfielder, Wells is simply wasted space. Wells is sure to go, but Ichiro might be given a free pass just based on who he is. He still needs to go, though.
Other moves could be made, especially in regards to the bullpen, and trades could happen, but these players need to be designated for assignment to free up mandatory spots right now.
No one will be able to spell his name. I don't want to deal with that.
Right now the Yankees have a rotation of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ivan Nova. They're likely to have an internal competition between David Phelps, Michael Pineda and others, for the fifth rotation spot, but they still need one more pitcher. Now that they have signed Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner represents their best trade chip and it's entirely possible that they trade him in return for pitching.
One starting pitcher who is likely available is Jeff Samardzija of the Chicago Cubs, and the Yankees are said to be interested. The 28-year-old right-hander is entering his age-29 season and won't be a free agent until 2016. He has only been a full time starter for the last two years and in that time he's thrown 388.1 innings, hitting the 200 inning mark in 2013. He has a 4.07 ERA, 9.14 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, and a 3.66 FIP in the last two seasons, which is decent, however a 1.04 HR/9, along with a 4.26 career FIP against lefties, could prove to be a disaster in Yankee Stadium.
It was partially due to Samardzija's step back in 2013 that Dale Sveum lost his job. Their disappointment in him could lead to them trading him, but since he won't be a free agent for awhile, it would likely cost more than just Gardner. If Samardzija doesn't get bombed every time out, adding him and Kuroda should give them the 400 innings the Yankees have been looking for, but will they be quality innings?
Samardzija, 28, has popped up on several teams' radars over the last few weeks after extension talks with Chicago broke down yet again. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks have been in recent discussions with the Cubs about putting together a trade package for "Shark," but they now have some competition.
The Yankees are seemingly checking in on anyone and everyone now that Robinson Cano is off the table, and acquiring a rotation piece like Samardzija through a trade could potentially help them clear the payroll needed to go after the likes of Masahiro Tanaka without going over the luxury tax threshold. Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues currently pegs the club's 2014 post-arbitration payroll at $182.7 million -- that's with A-Rod's salary completely removed -- which leaves them just a few million shy of their $189 million goal with at least one starting pitcher left to add.
For the Braves, the addition of Samardzija would solidify an already strong and young pitching core of Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Brandon Beachy. According to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves are also interested in White Sox lefty Chris Sale, but Samardzija is believed to be a more "realistic target" for the club.
The Cubs have one of the deepest farm systems in the game at the moment, so it's unclear what kind of return they'd be hoping for in a trade. Most of the club's premier prospects -- Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler -- are position players, so it seems reasonable to assume that they might ask for young pitching in return for Samardzija.
Samardzija, 28, is entering just his second year of arbitration, so he has two seasons of team control remaining. The tall right-hander has been a strong middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Cubs since transitioning from the bullpen in 2012, posting a 4.10 ERA and 9.1 strikeouts per nine in 388⅓ innings (61 starts) over the last two seasons. He had a lot of trouble limiting free passes (5.3 BB/9) when he worked out of the bullpen, but has greatly improved his control since moving into the rotation, lowering his walk rate to just over three per nine.
Veteran major league starting pitcher Roy Halladay will retire today. Here's a look at the career of one of the top pitchers of this generation.
According to multiple media reports, veteran Major League starting pitcher Roy Halladay will sign a one-day contract with the Toronto Blue Jays today, then announce his retirement in a Blue Jays uniform. Here's a look at the career of the 203-game winner, who did not have a smooth development path as a young pitcher.
Roy Halladay was drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays in 1995, out of high school in Arvada, Colorado. The 17th overall pick, he was assigned to the Gulf Coast League and pitched well, going 3-5 in ten games but posting a solid 3.40 ERA and a 48/16 K/BB in 50 innings. I didn't give letter grades to new draft picks back then, but nowadays I'd probably have given him a Grade B based on his draft status and strong debut. Halladay's fastball was just average at that point, but he had an excellent breaking ball, and scouts felt his velocity would pick up after he matured physically.
Moved aggressively to the Florida State League in 1996, Halladay went 15-7, 2.73 in 27 starts. He posted a 109/46 K/BB ratio in 165 innings. His command was very impressive, but his K/IP was below average. As scouts expected, his velocity increased, up to 95 MPH at times. Oddly, this didn't improve his strikeout rate, likely due to inconsistent secondary pitches. Still, it was a solid overall season, especially given his age in High-A. Also note his very large (by current standards) workload. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 1997 book, rating him as the number 31 prospect in the game.
Halladay split 1997 between Double-A Knoxville and Triple-A Syracuse, going 9-13 with a combined 4.77 ERA. His K/BB was unimpressive at 94/64 in 162 innings. His numbers were all mediocre or worse, and it looked to me like he was being mishandled very badly by the Jays. Reports indicated that his secondary pitches were very inconsistent and he looked like he was being rushed. I reduced him to Grade B in the 1998 book, still a solid rating, but was concerned that he was heading for trouble because of the way they were pushing him too quickly. "I'm not sure the Blue Jays will give him enough time to ripen. . .he is a candidate for Matt Drews Disease," I wrote, referencing the failed Yankees prospect who fell apart after being rushed to Triple-A too quickly.
The Blue Jays gave Halladay 21 starts in for Triple-A Syracuse in 1998. He improved, going 9-5, 3.79, although his K/BB remained poor at 71/53 in 116 innings. His scouting reports were positive: 95 MPH fastball, the knuckle-curve, an improving slider. He received a September cup-of-coffee and threw a one-hitter in his second major league start. I moved him back up to Grade B+, but noted that his component ratios remained problematic and warned that immediate major league success was not a sure bet. At this point, there was still a disconnect between Halladay's projection and his performance.
The Jays used Halladay as a swingman in 1999, giving him 18 major league starts but also 18 relief appearances. He pitched well overall, going 8-7, 3.92, but his K/BB was not good at all, 82/79 in 149 innings. This was a warning sign for 2000, and indeed, he completely collapsed, posting a horrid 10.64 ERA in 68 innings for the Blue Jays, and pitching quite poorly even after being demoted to the minors (5.50, 38/21 K/BB in 74 innings for Syracuse). At this point, he looked very much like a young pitcher potentially ruined by being promoted too quickly.
Realizing that Halladay was at a critical juncture, the Blue Jays completely rebuilt his mechanics early in 2001. By the end of the season, he was pitching well at the major league level, with a 3.16 ERA in 16 starts and a 96/25 K/BB in 105 innings. This was the best K/BB ratio of his career to that point, reflecting much better command. Scouts also said that Halladay was much more confident on the mound. During his previous struggles, he appeared overly tentative and lacked confidence in his stuff. By the end of '01, he looked like a completely different pitcher, sabermetrically and traditionally.
You know the rest of the story: brilliant pitching in 2002 (7.3 fWAR) and 2003 (7.4 fWAR), injury problems in '04 and '05, though effective when healthy, then a six-year run of excellent success beginning in 2006.
Overall, Halladay went 203-105 with a 3.38 ERA, 131 ERA+, 3.39 FIP, with a 2117/592 K/BB ratio in 2749 innings, allowing 2646 hits. Keep in mind that offense was at record levels in MLB through much of his career. He won 20 games three times, led the league in innings pitched four times, in complete games seven times, in shutouts four times. He won two Cy Young Awards and was an eight-time All Star. He threw a perfect game in 2010 and a second no-hitter in the playoffs that year. He finished with a career fWAR of 67.6.
Halladay's track record as a prospect was a mixed bag, noted by good scouting reports but shaky component ratios and command problems. I wasn't surprised at all that he collapsed in 2000. But I was surprised how quickly he rebuilt his career in 2001. Despite shoulder problems in '04 and a broken leg in '05, he was also quite durable until finally beginning to fizzle at age 35.
Historically speaking, Halladay's Sim Score comp list stands as follows:
Of this group, only Vance is a Hall of Famer to this point, although Pedro and Mussina will get there and Brown has a good case.
Among pitchers with a similar number of innings pitched, Halladay's 67.7 fWAR in 2749 innings puts him in the neighborhood with Vance (63.6 in 2967), Hal Newhouser (63 in 2993), Rube Waddell (60.6 in 2961), and Saberhagen (58.3 in 2563).
Of the Top 50 pitchers in baseball history according to fWAR, Halladay ranks at #34, but with the fewest number of innings pitched. Pedro Martinez, with 86.8 fWAr (16th overall) in 2827 innings, Hall of Famer Vance, and Hall of Famer Newhouser are the only Top 50 pitchers with fewer than 3,000 innings pitched.
Sanchez is obvious, but after that Heathcott overtakes Williams. J.R. Murphy ranks highly since he is considered major league-ready. Having Jagielo, Judge, and Clarkin so high when two of them haven't had much time in pro ball either shows just how good the Yankees' 2013 draft was or how bad the system has been. After them come a trio of new names. Greg Bird finally gets some recognition after his incredible year, Luis Severino had a solid year in Charleston at the age of 19, while Gosuke Katoh surprised everyone with a great season in Rookie Ball right out of the draft.
Ranking the organization's top 15 prospects under the age of 25 amounts to the same players because the Yankees don't have any older prospects. As part of the team's top 15 prospects, Manny Banuelos, who should be returning from Tommy John surgery this season, makes it at number 11. Abiatal Avelino of Rookie Ball represents the Yankees' best shortstop, Jose Ramirez, Jose Campos, and Rafael De Paula round out the top 15. This all makes me wonder, what happened to Tyler Austin?
Giving out the best tools superlatives:
Greg Bird is the organization's best hitter for average and has shown the best strike-zone discipline.
Mason Williams is the fastest baserunner, the all-around best athlete, and best defensive outfielder.
Cito Culver won best defensive infielder and best infield arm.
Jose Ramirez has the best fastball and the best changeup in the system.
The newest version of Yankee Stadium hasn't always received glowing reviews, but the place is an impressive structure with a lot of cool elements. Marvin Larson and Thomas Young have created a business of taking photographs of stadiums and turning them into blueprint-style posters. Their quest originally began 12 years ago when searching for a blueprint of Fenway Park, but they have since expanded beyond Fenway to Wrigley Field, Busch Stadium, and Yankee Stadium with more on the way in the near future.
Here's what Mr. Larson had to say about their work:
Just this year we have totally revamped our product line and our development and printing process. We take our own photographs of the park and convert them through a process we've developed into these blueprint-style line drawings. This conversion is incredibly time consuming, but the results are fairly realistic blueprint style drawings that look great on these posters.
The goal is to release at least two more parks per month, eventually expanding into NCAA Football, NFL Football, and other sports, but our first love is baseball. We hope to have all 30 parks out in the next year or two, as well as a couple of National League and American League prints featuring the design of all ballparks in the league.
Mr. Larson was kind enough to send me a few of the Yankee Stadium posters, as seen above, and I can vouch for how impressive and well-done they are. The poster is 18" x 24" and could be a cool gift that is different from regular old Yankee Stadium posters. The posters can be purchased on the Ballpark Blueprints website, if you are interested. None of us at Pinstripe Alley are getting anything out of this, I just thought it would be something good to pass along to you guys if you were looking for an interesting gift this holiday season.
Here is a bigger, embedded version of the poster:
I'm giving away one of the Yankee Stadium posters in a simple trivia contest. The contest will run today through Wednesday night at 11:59 pm EST and then we'll figure out our winner for me to send the poster to. You have to be willing to share your mailing address in the event that you win. I can't keep you from cheating but please be fair to others and don't go searching the internet for answers. Unfortunately, I can only mail to addresses within the United States. Now that that is out of the way, onto the contest.
Leave your answer to these two questions in the comments below. Price is Right rules apply (closest without going over).
What is the total number of multi-year deals, including extensions, the Yankees have handed out since free agency began?
Tiebreaker: What is the lowest number of games played by a position player after signing a multi-year contract with the Yankees?
The four-time World Series championship manager for the Yankees will be inducted to the Hall of Fame in July 2014 along with fellow accomplished managers Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa (and hopefully at least some players). Longtime MLBPA leader Marvin Miller was embarrassingly snubbed again.
The first wave of inductees for the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame class have been announced. The Veteran's Committee has decided to induct managers Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, and Tony La Russa:
All three managers were inducted unanimously by the 16-man committee, and absolutely no one should be shocked. They are all extremely well-loved in baseball circles and rank 3rd (La Russa, 2,728), 4th (Cox, 2,504), and 5th (Torre, 2,326) all-time in managerial wins.
Torre managed for 30 years, but it took 15 years and three different stints with the Mets, Braves, and Cardinals before he found any success outside of the 1982 NL West title in Atlanta (a team which was promptly swept out of the NLCS). He thought that all his bridges were shot since those three teams were the three that he played with during a stellar 18-year playing career which actually was strong enough to merit serious Hall of Fame consideration on its own. However, Yankees owner George Steinbrenner gave him a chance to manage in Torre's hometown after the team parted ways with Buck Showalter following their crushing 1995 ALDS loss to the Mariners.
Torre took the job, and the rest is history. From 1996-2007, he skipped baseball's most revered franchise and guided them to four World Series titles in his first five years, achieving playoff success that he never experienced in his previous 36 years in the game. It was glory beyond wildest dreams as those dominant Yankees teams romped through the playoffs year after year despite the difficult three-round format and somehow because the first team since the 1972-74 Athletics to win three championships in a row (they were also two outs from winning four in a row in '01). The Yankees never missed the playoffs during his 12-year stint as manager, and in addition to the four titles, they won six AL pennants, 10 AL East titles (nine in a row from 1998-2006), and 1,173 regular season games, a .605 winning percentage. Torre won co-AL Manager of the Year in '96 and outright AL Manager of the Year in '98, a dominant 114-win season that will long be remember in Yankees history.
Although Torre's strategies justifiably began to fall under heavy criticism by the latter years of his tenure, most notably his destruction of bullpen arms Scott Proctor, Paul Quantrill, and Tom Gordon due to overuse, he was always well-respected within the clubhouse and brilliant at keeping a cool head despite his irritable owner's frequent rage outbursts. The tension grew too much by the end of '07 though, and Torre and the Yankees ended their 12-year association. He went on to manage three more years with the Dodgers, winning back-to-back NL West titles in 2008-09, though they lost to the Phillies in the NLCS both years. I've certainly had my qualms with Torre in the past, but since managers are honored in Cooperstown, he belongs in the Hall of Fame.
While I don't really want the Yankees to retire his number since retiring managerial numbers is kind of silly anyway, it feels inevitable that his #6 could be honored in Monument Park next season. Don't reserve your tickets yet though; the Steinbrenner family is reportedly seething that Torre will be enshrined before patriarch George Steinbrenner, who gave Torre his shot. "The Boss" was also on the ballot, but the Yankees' owner for 37 years did not receive the requisite 12 votes for induction. Classy, Steinbrenners.
The Yankees did win seven World Series titles under his ownership, they also went through a 14-year streak without even making the playoffs, partially due to his meddling with bad player signings and trades and the infamous streak of 17 managerial changes in 15 years from 1978-92. He was also suspended from the game twice due to illegal contributions to presidential campaign and hiring an investigator to dig up dirt on one of his own friggin' players, Dave Winfield. Yankees fans reviled him by the early '90s. Points in his favor are the seven titles and his stature as the first owner to truly embrace free agency; his early signings of big names Catfish Hunter and Reggie Jackson paved the way for free agency to truly explode. Either way, his case is far from open-and-shut, and I don't bear ill will toward the Veteran's Committee for being unsure about whether to induct him to the Hall of Fame or not. In the end, Steinbrenner probably deserves a plaque in Cooperstown, but I'm not heartbroken that he's absent, either. Anyway his whole impact on free agency is predicated by Marvin Miller's efforts to even make free agency happen, so Miller should get in long before Steinbrenner. Miller was snubbed again, but we'll get to that.
Joining Torre in Cooperstown next summer will be Cox and La Russa, both easy Hall of Fame choices. A former Yankees player in the "Horace Clarke era" and coach for the '77 World Series champion team, Cox spent the first nine years of his 30-year managerial career with the Braves and Blue Jays from 1978-85. His first stint with the Braves didn't have much success, but in '85, he won the AL Manager of the Year Award for guiding the Blue Jays to the franchise's first division title in a 99-win season that just barely beat out Don Mattingly's 97-win Yankees. The team blew a 3-1 lead in the ALCS to the eventual champion Royals though, and Cox departed Toronto after the season to take a job in the Braves' front office. There, he played a big role in bringing aboard the players who would become cornerstones of the amazing 1991-2005 Braves teams, like Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. Cox returned to the dugout in the second half of a last-place 1990 season, then spent the better part of the next two decades raising division flags in Atlanta. He took home NL Manager of the Year honors in '91, '04, and '05.
The Braves won 14 division titles in a row under Cox, claiming the 1991-93 NL West titles and after both realignment and the '94 players' strike which cancelled the playoffs, they won the 1995-2005 NL East titles. That streak will probably never be broken. Cox's teams won 100 games six times and went to the World Series as the NL champions in '91, '92, '95, '96, and '99. They gained a bit of a Buffalo Bills-type reputation for constantly falling short of the ultimate prize though; during this 15-year stretch of success, they won just one World Series title, a six-game victory over the championship-allergic Indians in '95. The Yankees did the honors of booting the Braves themselves in a stunning six-game victory in '96, and a tidy four-game sweep in '99. By the time the division title streak entered the 2000s, first-round one-and-dones became an Atlanta tradition, as they lost in the Division Series in 2000, '02, '03, '04, and '05. The streak came to an end when the Mets won the '06 NL East title, and the Braves spent the next four years strangely out of the playoff picture. In Cox's announced final season of 2010, they returned to the playoffs as the Wild Card, but the Giants sent them home in four games. That led to this very cool moment of the Braves' home crowd applauding Cox and the Giants interrupting their celebration to bid Cox farewell:
La Russa managed longer than even Cox and Torre; from 1979-2011, he managed 35 seasons in the majors, finding success everywhere he went. He took over a regularly-under-.500 White Sox team in '79, and by '83, he had them AL West champions, back in the playoffs for the first time since 1959. The Orioles ousted them in four games though, and just three years later, disagreements with GM Hawk Harrelson (yes, THAT Hawk Harrelson) led to Hawk firing LaRussa, an idiotic move that should have made him banned from the organization. La Russa quickly hooked on with the Athletics, and it was there that he began to change the game. He turned longtime starter Dennis Eckersley into a closer, but instead of constantly relying on "Eck" for multiple innings as had been the tradition with closers like Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage, he tried to limit Eckersley's appearances to one inning apiece, two at most. The decision was a masterstroke; Eckersley became one of the most fearsome relievers in baseball history, clinching a spot in Cooperstown and paving the way for future short-inning closers Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. Behind the bullpen and players like Dave Stewart, Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, and Jose Canseco, the A's won three AL pennants in a row from 1988-90. They were surprised by the Dodgers and Reds in the '88 and '90 Fall Classics, but they brought home Oakland's only championship since the early '70s with a four-game sweep over the Giants in '89.
Oakland slipped to fourth behind the AL West champion Twins in '91, but returned to the top in '92 with a division title. The Blue Jays bounced them in the ALCS though, and La Russa never made another playoff appearance with the A's. La Russa left Oakland for the Cardinals in '96 and immediately skipped them to their first playoff appearance in nine years. The NL Central champions blew a 3-1 NLCS lead on Cox's Braves though, and La Russa went home empty-handed. Four years later, the Cardinals returned to the playoffs and from 2000-11, they had remarkable success thanks in large part to La Russa and a young slugger named Albert Pujols. They made eight playoff appearances, won six NL Central division titles, brought the World Series title back to St. Louis for the first time since 1982 with a five-game victory over the Tigers in '06, and in La Russa' final year at the helm, stunned the Rangers with a classic seven-game triumph in 2011. La Russa became the first manager in baseball history to retire a champion, as the 66-year-old called it a career following his third World Series title.
La Russa and Cox were easy Hall of Famers, but just keep these tweets in mind whenever anyone references the Hall of Fame's nebulous "character clause ":
Just a reminder that Bobby Cox was arrested for domestic abuse, Tony LaRussa for DUI. Jeff Bagwell's just hanging out, being a decent dude.
So... yeah. Don't think for a second that Cox and Torre were not beneficiaries of the efforts of PED-aided players, either. But, you know, moral high ground and all.
The other people who were on the ballot were Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Billy Martin, Dave Parker, Dan Quisenberry, Ted Simmons, Steinbrenner, and Marvin Miller. Of these nominees, I'm of the opinion that Simmons, John, and Steinbrenner should probably be honored in Cooperstown one way or another, but the biggest crime of all is the continued dismissal of the late Marvin Miller. It is a complete and utter joke that the Hall of Fame claims to honor the biggest figures in the history of baseball but has never done anything for Miller. Dayn Perry over at CBS Sports nicely sums up Miller's slam-dunk case:
Miller is the man who, armed with his training as an economist for the United Steelworkers of America, forged the MLBPA into something more than a handmaiden to ownership, something more than a "company union." Recounting the gains made by the players under Miller would take too much bandwidth (and keep in mind that bandwidth is not especially finite). Most notably, though, he methodically and relentlessly attacked the reserve clause -- the patently unfair system that yoked a player to one team for life or until the team was done with him.
Finally, in 1975, thanks to the "test cases" of Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally, the reserve clause was overturned by arbitrator Peter Seitz, and free agency in baseball was born. In part because of that and in part because Miller was able to persuade owners to accept salary arbitration, the average major-league salary increased tenfold during Miller's tenure. And that's to say nothing of the pension system he created -- one that's the envy of athletes in other professional sports.
All of those are good things, both on the principle of economic freedom and in terms of making MLB a more attractive destination for athletic talent around the world. Contrary to popular misconception, free agency also improved parity and competitive balance across the league.
The players' union was an absolute joke when Miller took over. By the time he left office, players had far more rights than ever before. The nigh-century old reserve clause was a complete injustice; Miller's hard-fought case against it eventually led to its elimination. Average salary increased by 1,616% during his tenure. (No, that is not a typo.) Players were previously unable to file grievances against owners. As previously mentioned, anyone arguing Steinbrenner's case better be arguing for Miller's too, since free agency, the very institution that Steinbrenner capitalized on, would not have been possible without Miller. Miller changed the game for the better, but his continued to exclusion is why people like Hardball Talk's Craig Calcaterra have legitimate reasons to completely dismiss the Hall's validity (emphasis mine):
The direct problem is one I’ve mentioned many times before, and that’s the horrendous exclusion of Marvin Miller. He’s been passed over multiple times now, and he’s probably never getting in. I’ve accepted that. I’ll never accept, however, that the Hall of Fame is anything approaching legitimate without Miller’s inclusion. Many owners, executives and commissioners — many feckless at best, some actively harmful to the game — are in the Hall. Very few of them if any have had as big an impact on how baseball operates than Miller.
Bowie Kuhn, the crappy commissioner who Miller constantly fought and triumphed over multiple times, is in the Hall of Fame while Miller remains outside. That is just completely baffling. What's worse is that Miller apparently received even fewer votes than he did during his last vote in 2010: six at most. Coincidentally, the 16-man committee had six former players on it. Rod Carew, Carlton Fisk, Joe Morgan, Paul Molitor, Phil Niekro, and Frank Robinson better all have voted for Miller, if not only due to his effect on their salaries. The remainder of the committee consisted of managers Whitey Herzog and Tommy Lasorda, historians Steve Hirdt, Bruce Jenkins, Jack O'Connell, and Jim Reeves, and executives Andy MacPhail, Dave Montgomery, Jerry Reinsdorf, and Paul Beeston. Even if all four executives on the ballot decided to screw Miller over for what he did to them over the years, the remainder of the voting bloc could still have inducted him with the requisite 12 votes. Hirdt, Jenkins, O'Connell, and Reeves don't deserve the title of "historian" if they didn't vote for Miller, given how much Miller did to impact baseball history. We might never see a Hall of Fame with Marvin Miller, and until he's elected, that gross fact likely stands as Cooperstown's biggest failure. I'll leave the final word on Miller to SBN's Jon Bois:
j/k, Marvin Miller was a tremendous advocate and American and way too baller for that shitty baseball musuem that's hard to get to
Following Robinson Cano's dash to the Pacific Northwest, the Yankees will now have to scramble to find an alternative to man second. As it stands, the market for second basemen is pretty weak, but perhaps there may be a diamond in the rough.
That diamond in the rough could be Mark Ellis. Ellis spent last season with the Dodgers, hitting .270/.323/.351 with a 92 wRC+ in 480 plate appearances. For reference, the average second baseman in Major League Baseball sports a .257/.316/.376 line with a 91 wRC+, so basically Ellis is pretty much average offensively when you compare him to his peers at the same position. Ellis' platoon splits, however, are a bit discouraging, but not very surprising given he's a right-handed batter. Last season, he hit .282/.331/.414 with a 112 wRC+ against lefties while hitting just .265/.319/.325 with an 83 wRC+ against righties. In his career, Ellis is a .276/.348/.429 (110 wRC+) hitter against lefties while hitting .262/.324/.377 (90 wRC+) against righties.
Thankfully, defense is Ellis' calling card. Last season, UZR/150 rated him as a +7.8 defender, DRS had him at +12, FRAA at +3.3, and, finally, dWAR at +1.5. That's been pretty much the same for his career, too, as UZR/150, DRS, FRAA, and dWAR peg him as a +9.1, +125, +~66.4, and +~16.9 defender, respectively, in 1314 career games and 11214 innings at the second base position.
There are two problems with that, though. One: Ellis has always been a second baseman and that's about it. He has played eight career games at third base, 15 games at shortstop (most recently in 2005), and five games at first base. For a guy who isn't all that special with the bat (especially given his platoon splits), you'd at least like to have a bit of versatility. Maybe they can try him out at other spots if they sign him, but I'm not counting on it. Also, he's 36 years old and turns 37 in June. At an advanced age like that, you could see his defensive numbers take a nosedive.
Even before Cano agreed to sign with the Mariners, the Yankees had interest in Omar Infante, and I expect that interest to grow now that Robbie is gone. However, since Infante is now the best second baseman available on the open market, it's far from a guarantee he'll end up becoming a Yankee, which is why the team may end up having to pursue Ellis. At the same time, they could peg Kelly Johnson as the regular (or at least against right-handed pitching) second baseman while signing a cheap utility man (Jeff Baker!) to fill Johnson's original role. With all this said, it's pretty sad how the Yankees go from having a star like Cano holding down the fort at second for the last nine years to having to go bargain hunting for the likes of Mark Ellis, but that's the world we currently live in, unfortunately.
Infante, who will be 32 at the beginning of next season, spent much of his career as a utility man. He only earned a starting job in 2011 after the Braves traded him to the Marlins in the Dan Uggla deal. He spent the last season-and-a-half back with the Tigers, where he began his career. However, the Tigers filled their second base vacancy by trading for Ian Kinsler, so it is likely Infante will be wearing a new uniform come spring training.
It's hard to gauge just what exactly is meant by "go nuts," but Infante is likely not the kind of guy to "go nuts" over. He is a career .279/.319/.402 hitter who has never made more than $4 million in a single season. There would seemingly be a dollar amount at which it would make more sense for the Royals (and the Yankees as well) to try to acquire Brandon Phillips from the Reds rather than sign Infante. Philips is signed for the next four seasons at a total of $50 million, and the Reds appear open to the idea of trading him.
The Yankees will honor the recently deceased Nelson Mandela, known for his fight against apartheid, with a plaque in Monument Park on Jackie Robinson Day.
The Yankees are going to honor Nelson Mandela with a plaque in Monument Park. Mandela, who recently passed away on December 5th, is famous for fighting against apartheid in his native country of South Africa.
According to David Waldstein, the plaque will be unveiled on Jackie Robinson Day, April 15th, while the Cubs are visiting. Mandela's plaque will join the likes of other non-Yankees who have been honored in Monument Park, including: Robinson, three Popes who have led masses there, as well as the victims of the terrorist attacks on 9/11.
Nelson Mandela actually visited Yankee Stadium in 1990, just a few months after being released from his 27-year-long stay in South African prisons. During his visit, which was to raise funds for his anti-apartheid organization, Mandela spoke to a sold out crowd at Yankee Stadium. He donned a Yankee cap and jacket and reportedly said, "You know who I am. I am a Yankee." George Steinbrenner was supposedly so pleased with this that he did not even charge the city for hosting the fund-raising event.
How do you feel about the Yankees decision to honor Mandela in this way?
The Yankees are still looking for pitching during the Winter Meetings and Brian Cashman is exploring potential trades that could help New York land what they need. Brett Gardner has long been their best trade piece, and even though Yankee brass has said they aren't shopping their center fielder, Cashman is willing to give him up in return for Justin Masterson of the Indians.
Cleveland's number one pitcher is well known for his great ground ball rates (56.4%), however, his peripherals (7.45 K/9, 3.57 BB/9) are not what you want to see from your ace. Acquiring him would go a long way toward Cashman's goal of adding 400 innings to the rotation, as Masterson has thrown at least 180 innings in the last four seasons and reached the 200 plateau twice. He pitched to a 3.45 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 2013, along with a career high 9.09 K/9.
He could work well in Yankee Stadium, having a minuscule 26.2% fly ball rate and 0.69 HR/9, but he has also struggles against left-handed hitters (4.49 FIP). His 11.4% HR/FB rate against them would probably lead him into trouble when he pitched in New York. Masterson is at the top of the rotation in Cleveland, but with the Yankees he'd probably be the No. 3 or 4 pitcher.
Unfortunately, it wouldn't be as easy as Gardner for Masterson, even though both at free agents in 2015, since the Indians don't need an outfielder, so the Yankees are looking to create a three-team trade that would net them the 28-year-old pitcher. It's hard to tell who would be interested in such a situation; the Reds could use a center fielder, but without knowing what the Indians need, there's no way to tell who could possibly be involved.
According to Buster Olney, trade talks between the two teams has no legs and that the Indians are currently not close to trading Masterson or anyone else. According to one baseball executive, they "will listen, but they're also trying to win, so I don't think he is that available." It seems that this idea is mostly just wishful thinking on the Yankees' part, but things could turn real very quickly.
Just a few weeks ago the Yankees traded Chris Stewart to the Pirates in exchange for a player to be named later. In return the Yankees have received Low-A pitcher Kyle Haynes.
Drafted in the 20th round of the 2012 MLB Draft, the right-handed Haynes pitched to a 4.05 ERA and 2.04 FIP in Short Season-A. He had a good 10.8 K/9 and a decent 3.4 BB/9 over 26.2 innings out of the bullpen in his first real taste of pro-ball. As solid as he was in 2012, he was even better in 2013 when he moved up to Low-A. He had a 2.38 ERA and 2.68 FIP with a 9.18 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9 in 83.1 innings between the bullpen and starting rotation. After being converted into a starter at the end of the season, he maintained an ERA of 1.93, keeping opponents to a .184/.283/.250 batting line in 42 innings.
So far, in his short career, he has collected a total of 15 saves, and has been able to keep right-handed hitters to a .565 OPS, while lefties have a .638 OPS against him. Pirates Prospects didn't rank him in their top 50, but believe he could be a major league reliever some day.
Haynes was a reliever heading into the year, sitting in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball, and touching 96 in the past. He's got good life on the pitch, attacking the zone and using a fastball-heavy approach. After success in West Virginia during the early part of the season, he moved to the rotation where the strong results continued. As a starter, Haynes was sitting 90-92 MPH with his fastball. He also mixed in his low-80s curveball, but still mostly leaned on the fastball. He doesn't profile as a starter in the majors, but if he can improve his curveball he could develop into a strong reliever.
Whether he stays in the rotation or moves back to the bullpen, the Yankees could move him up to High-A Tampa and he wouldn't be getting in anyone's way. Haynes might not end up being anything, but right now it looks like the Yankees did better than I expected they would for someone like Stewart.
The Yankees chose to overpay for Jacoby Ellsbury instead of Robinson Cano. What was their motive?
It's probably safe to say that Robinson Cano is a significantly better player than Jacoby Ellsbury. Yet, Ellsbury's 7 year, $153M contract didn't fall too far short of the 7/$175M pact the Yankees were reportedly offering Robinson Cano. It's no shock that the Yankees wouldn't match the Mariners' $240M offer, but it is a bit surprising that they seemed unwilling to come any closer than they did, especially considering the generous contracts they handed out to Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran. Based on the contracts offered, the Yankees seem to think Ellsbury and Cano will yield similar value over the next seven years -- an ideology that doesn't jive with popular opinion. So why might the Yankees feel Ellsbury would be a better bet than Cano? Here are some possible explanations.
While Cano is easily the better player, the size of the gap between them is not entirely clear. The discrepancy between two players' values differs depending on which brand of WAR you're looking at, mostly due to differences in the way defense is measured.
The Yankees almost certainly have their own method for calculating a player's value, so my guess is their internal valuations resemble the WAR totals from Fangraphs moreso than those from Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference.
Long-term aging curve
Although Cano is the better player today, who knows if that will still be the case seven, or even two, years from now. Baseball people have long been skeptical of speedy outfielders (like Ellsbury) and second basemen (like Cano) remaining productive into their 30's. For players like Ellsbury, conventional wisdom holds that since much of his value is tied to his speed -- in the outfield and on the basepaths -- his production will crater as soon as he begins to slow down. Second basemen are widely believed to fall off a cliff as well. The most cited explanation here is that take-out slides from runners trying to break up double plays takes its toll over the years.
With these two players in mind, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs crunched the numbers on both second basemen and speedy outfielders and found that these sudden, early declines are mostly myth -- at least for players as good as Ellsbury and Cano.
Still, there have been plenty of very good second baseman in recent years who have suddenly collapsed at a young age -- Edgardo Alfonzo, Roberto Alomar, Carlos Beaerga, Brett Boone, Marcus Giles, and Chuck Knoblauch to name a few -- so maybe the Yankees think these players' demises have some predictive value that applies to Cano.
Defensive flexibility
In addition to being very good hitters, both Ellsbury and Cano are plus defenders at premium defensive positions. But five or six years from now, that may no longer be the case. Once Ellsbury starts to lose some of his speed, he could easily shift to one of the corner outfield spots -- like Curtis Granderson did in 2013 -- but Cano's, long-term landing spot isn't as obvious. If and when Cano can no longer man second base, his next stop would probably be designated hitter (or maybe first base). Given the Yankees' affinity for signing veterans to long-term deals, I would imagine they'll have no shortage of DH options by that point. So, while Cano might still have some value as a DH in his late thirties, it could be a challenge for the Yankees to make use of him in that role.
Imperfect information
The Yankees have had Robinson Cano in their system since he was an 18-year-old back in 2001. In theory, this means they know him better than anybody. Information asymmetry is a thing in baseball, so perhaps there's something about Cano's makeup that the Yankees don't particularly like.
Much has been made of Robbie's reluctance to bust it down the line on routine outs. There are also reports coming out now that Cano didn't always see eye to eye with his manager, Joe Girardi. Silly things like these don't even come close to justifying letting a franchise centerpiece walk away, but maybe they're an indication of a deeper problem. This is speculation in it's purest form, but maybe something that we don't know about caused the Yankees to shave a few million from their offer.
The Yankees apparently have an interest in bringing aboard the former Tigers closer to shore up the bullpen. Is it a good idea?
Many teams' bullpens change from year to year, but the Yankees' bullpen appears destined to have an overhaul unlike any they have had in years. For the first time in 17 years, they will have a new closer going into Spring Training. In fact, Joe Girardi recently toldWall Street Journal reporter Daniel Barbarisi that the only "sure things" to be in the bullpen for 2014 are David Robertson, Shawn Kelley, and Preston Claiborne. Teams typically carry seven-man bullpens, so there are several more spots to fill in the 'pen, and frankly, they can do better than Claiborne and his 6.53 second half ERA third on the depth chart.There are only so many internal options at the moment aside from rotation candidates David Phelps and Adam Warren. David Huff is a lefty but not particularly impressive, and although Dellin Betances and Cesar Cabral are intriguing, they have only pitched about 11 combined major league innings.
Back at the start of '97, the Yankees' bullpen already had some solid pieces in Rivera and Jeff Nelson (among others), but they signed veteran lefty Mike Stanton to a three-year, $5.45 million deal. That contract worked out pretty well, as Stanton became a bullpen fixture for the next six years. Now, they might be seeking a similar free agent import to supplement the current bullpen core. Bob Nightengale revealed the Yankees' offseason goal for the bullpen along with a particular name they could pursue:
The #Yankees would love to grab two relievers and have had lots of internal discussions about Joaquin Benoit
Benoit is 36 years old and has taken a very interesting career path. A native of the Dominican Republic, he signed and eventually debuted with the Texas Rangers as a starter in August 2001. He started 46 of his first 71 games with underwhelming results. In 2005, the Rangers used him out of the 'pen 24 times, and he pitched to a 1.30 ERA with a 0.888 WHIP and 9.1 K/9; in his nine starts, his ERA approached six. That effectively ended his starting career. He sandwiched an excellent season in '07 (61 ERA-) between two mediocre ones in '06 and '08, then underwent rotator cuff surgery in early '09 to address the shoulder soreness that plagued him during his rough '08.
At age 32 with middling success and a full season on the DL behind him, the Rays picked him up off the scrap heap in February 2010 for a mere $750,000. It was the type of low-cost gamble on a bullpen arm that the Rays' pitching coaches have had great success with over the past several years, and Benoit was no different. He seemingly came out of nowhere to dominate the American League in 2010. Featuring a mix of a 94-95 mph fastball with a devastating changeup about 10 mph slower and the occasional slider, he pitched to a 1.34 ERA (34 ERA-), a 2.43 FIP (61 FIP-), and struck out 75 batters in 60 1/3 innings versus just 10 walks. Opposing batters only hit .147/.189/.265 against him, and the bullpen duo of Benoit and closer Rafael Soriano helped the Rays win the AL East. Hitting the free agent market at his highest value yet, Benoit jumped to the Tigers to set up for Jose Valverde on a three-year deal worth $16.5 million.
Multi-year free agent contracts for relievers are always risky, but this three-year pact with Benoit worked out pretty well for Detroit. Over the past three years, he's pitched to a 2.89 ERA (70 ERA-) and 3.39 FIP (82 FIP-), posting impressive rates of 9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 1.075 WHIP in 199 total innings. The Tigers have won three AL Central titles in a row, and Benoit was Jim Leyland's most consistent reliever, given Valverde's implosion. The closer's collapse in 2012 led to an opening for the position at the start of 2013, but strangely, Benoit was not given a legitimate shot until the end of June. Benoit took the opportunity and ran with it to the end of the season, finishing 2013 with a 2.01 ERA (49 ERA-) and a 2.87 FIP (71 FIP-), converting each of his first 22 save opportunities before blowing a couple meaningless games in late September when the Tigers already had the division title wrapped up.
Benoit's playoff year was not a pretty sight, but that can be chalked up to small sample size weirdness--after pitching to a 1.62 ERA in his first 16 2/3 playoff innings from 2010-12, he was probably due for some regression. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that regression came in the form of three strong appearances (highlighted by clinching the opening and closing games of the ALDS victory over the Athletics) and three bad appearances (marred by the game-tying David Ortiz grand slam in Game 2 of the ALCS). Now, the righthander is a free agent again, and with new closer Joe Nathan, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has said he expects Benoit to sign elsewhere. Injuries are not a concern, as Benoit hasn't hit the DL since the rotator cuff surgery almost five years ago. Are the Yankees right to pursue him?
Although he has closing experience, one plus that Benoit has going for him that the Yankees might like is that he doesn't seem like the type of guy who would demand to be closer over Robertson, the likely heir to Rivera's throne. Keep in mind that this video link could very well just have been Benoit putting on a team-friendly face for any future employers, but he did mention that he recognizes teams don't often turn to guys in their mid-30s with no closing experience to be their closer as the Tigers did in 2013. He said that if he did return to Detroit and they wanted him to set up for youngster Bruce Rondon in 2014, he would be amenable. If this is true, then it seems unlikely that he would cause a scene about not wanting to set up for the much more experienced Robertson. (I can't imagine fellow free agent Grant Balfour would be as accommodating since he's now saved 62 games over the past couple years.) He could even provide an alternative and some competition for the closing gig in Spring Training, as the Yankees might desire to keep Robertson on edge. Either way, having a reliever with as much experience and recent success as Benoit could be a boon for a team whose bullpen is not especially strong at the moment.
A slight concern on Benoit's record can be observed in his slowly rising walk rate since that phenomenal 2010. Over the past four years, his BB/9 has gone from 1.64 (2010) to 2.51 (2011) to 2.79 (2012) to 2.96 (2013). All things considered, the past three years aren't terribly different from each other, but it's something to watch. A walk rate around 3.0 would still have been better than half of all qualifying relievers last year anyway, so as long as Benoit can stem the small increases, he should be fine. His fly ball rate of 38% was also 49th-highest out of 135 relievers, so that should be taken into account However, Kelley's was even higher last year though at 45%, so it's not as though Benoit would be doomed pitching half his games at Yankee Stadium.
Like Kelley, Benoit also gets more than his share of strikeouts to work out of jams; he ended 2013 with a +3.85 WPA, the fourth-highest total for MLB relievers. It should be noted that similar to RBI, WPA for relievers should be taken with a grain of salt according to Baseball Prospectus writer-turned-Astros statistician Colin Wyers since the relievers do not control the circumstances of the game before they enter it, but it's still comforting to know that when inserted into these tough situations, Benoit got the job done far more often than not. His strikeout potential has helped him in these efforts, inducing a swing and a miss on 13.6% of his pitches. Benoit's greatest weapon is his changeup, which was worth a remarkable 4.9 runs above average last year by Pitch F/X measures. It induced a swing a miss 24.7% of the time, like here:
Spot-on location and a wicked dive. Would not say no to adding another nasty pitch in the bullpen to go along with D-Rob's curveball.
MLB Trade Rumors estimates that Benoit might earn a deal of about $16 million for two years. He has reportedly received an offer worth multiple years at an average annual value of $6-8 million (two years, $14 million?). While that seems a little high, it wouldn't be too bad for a reliever who's been as durable and productive as Benoit. Obviously you would want to pay less for a reliever, but hey, that's free agency. If the Yankees want to dip into the market to improve the back end of their bullpen, Benoit would be a pretty solid overall choice, superior to most of the alternatives on the market. Bring me his changeup.
The Yankees continue to look for players to replace Robinson Cano at second base and they're weighing both trade and free agent options.
They have interest in Diamondbacks shortstop Didi Gregorius to play second base in 2014 and potentially replace Derek Jeter in the future, since he won't be a free agent until 2019. He was acquired from the Reds in the Shin-Soo Choo three-team trade that took place exactly one year ago today and was ranked as the 80th best prospect by Baseball America before the 2013 season.
In his rookie campaign, Gregorius, 23, was worth 1.4 WAR, though he only produced a 91 wRC+ and was not rated very highly in the field (-1.0 DRS, -1.0 UZR/150, 13 Errors). While it's only one season, he could have trouble hitting lefties going forward (40 wRC+ against lefties vs. 114 wRC+ against righties). He started off strong, hitting .319/.374/.521 through his first 31 games, however he could only manage a .218/.311/.298 batting line the rest of the season.
It would obviously make a ton of sense to find someone who could be useful now and in the future, since the Yankees don't have many players who are guaranteed to contribute. Gregorius might not be the best choice as primary target; the Yankee lineup currently has enough trouble against southpaws, but if Arizona has soured on him, it's possible they could make a deal, however, I don't know if his value going forward is worth giving up Brett Gardner for 2014, just because it would leave them with Alfonso Soriano as a full-time outfielder.
Another candidate to fill in at second base is free agent Omar Infante, who the Yankees have long been in talks with. It has been reported that he could be looking for a multi-year contract at a rate $8 million per year or higher, so it makes sense to check out the trade market first. There are several teams currently competing for the second baseman, but the Royals seem like they could be the most dangerous if New York really plans to make a run on him.
Brian Kenny of MLB Network loves Twitter. He has strong opinions about MVP voting and regularly goes nose to nose with those who lower the level of baseball discourse in public, like the BBWAA. Last night on Twitter, Kenny decided to give his thoughts on how to fix the Yankees. He has done this with other franchises this offseason, but it was finally time to see what plans he had in store for the Yankees.
Here's what he had to say.
Ok, just for a minute.. Rule #1 to finish fixing Yanks: I know it, Choo know it, everyone knows it. Obp is king".
Kelly Johnson doesn't fill me with inspiration but Omar Infante doesn't either, really. Bring me Dustin Ackley to see if he can regain the status that made him a second overall pick instead.
Rule #4 to fix the Yankees: be talking with every relief pitcher out there - sign 2 or 3. You're the Yankees, dammit.
Relief does look pretty shaky. Shakier than it has in a few years for the Yankees. I don't know who the answer is out on the market, though. Balfour is going to want to close. That would suit some Yankees fans but not me.
Rule #5 for fixing the Yankees: Who is in charge of developing your minor league pitching? WHAT IS GOING ON??
